ARTICLE REVIEW

ELECTRICAL LOAD FORECASTING METHODS

Submitted by:
Jonathan C. Pacaldo
MEP-EE

Submitted to:
Dr. Allan Soriano
Professorial Lecturer

ISSUES TO ADDRESS:
Main Question:
What is the best method to forecast Electrical Load?
Specific Question:
What are the available methods used in forecasting electrical load?
Paper search history:
Search Tool: Science Direct search from ISI Web
Year Span: 2010-2014
Keywords

No. Of Articles

Forecasting
Load Forecasting
Electrical Load Forecasting
Electrical Load Forecasting Methods

30, 838
7, 031
3, 050
2, 804

SELECTED PAPERS FOR REVIEW:

PAPER 1
Title:
Author/s:
Publication:

PAPER 2
Title:
Author/s:
Publication:
1071
PAPER 3
Title:

LONG TERM PEAK LOAD FORECASTING OF KUTAHYA

USING DIFFERENT APPROACHES.
Ylmaz Aslan, Serkan Yavasca, Celal Yasar
International Journal on Technical and Physical Problems of
Engineering, June 2011, Issue 1. Vol. 3 Number 2, pages
87-91
A WAVELET ELMAN NEURAL NETWORK FOR SHORTTERM ELECTRICAL LOAD PREDICTION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF TEMPERATURE.
Sanjay Kelo, Sanjay Dudul
Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 43 (2012) 1063-

LONG
TERM
LOAD
FORECASTING
FOR
THE
EGYPTIAN NETWORK USING ANN AND REGRESSION
MODELS.

Author/s:
Publication:

Wagdy Mansour, Mohamed Moenes, Hassan Mahmoud,

Ahmed Ghareeb
21st International Conference on Electricity Distribution,
Frankfurt, 6-9 June 2011

Research Comparison:
Study
Paper 1
Paper 2
Paper 3

Objectives
Study the long term peak load forecasting for the city of
Kutahya, Turkey.
To predict 1-day ahead electrical power load under the
influence of e using a combination of Wavelet and Elman
networks as a recurrent neural network.
Long Term load forecasting for Egyptian unified network
and comparing the result generated by ANN (Artificial
Neural Network) Model and Regression Model.
Studied Methods

Paper 1
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

1. Least Square Regression Methods

Simple Linear Regression
Mulitiple Linear Regression
Quadratic Regression
Exponential Regression
Artificial Neural Network

Paper 2

1. Daubechies Wavelet
2. Elman Network

Paper 3

1. Artificial Neural Network (ANN)

2. Regression Method
Methodology

Paper 1
literature.
Paper 2
Paper 3

1.Compared the studied methodology from other

1. Employed non-linear computational method.
1. Data processing techniques have been applied.

MODEL AND PARAMETERS

PAPER 1
In this paper, the authors employed the following models;
LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION METHODS
In regression based models, the prediction error is minimized to zero by using
the least squares approach as given in Equation (1).

Where,
n number of data
yi, real value existing recorded data
yi, approximate type of the function used
S number of the squared prediction errors
In this method, the variable S is equalised to zero after differentiated to each
coefficient.
A. SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION METHODS
The simple linear regression model is based on the linear relationship
between the dependent variable y and independent variable x as shown in equation
(2).

This is the equation of a straight line which intercept y axes at a with a slope
of b. In order to attain zero error, by using the least squares errors method,
equations (3) and (4) are obtained.

In the equations the variables y, x and n represent the peak load, the years
and the number of years which the forecasting is based on respectively. The a and
b coefficients are calculated from the Equations (3) and (4) and replaced in equation
(2) for the load forecasting.
B. MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION

This approach shows a plane in the space with three dimensions which can
be expressed as given in equation (5).

In the equation, a, b, and c are regression parameters relating the mean

value of y to x1 and x2. When the least squares method is applied (to attain zero
error), equation (6) is obtained.

By solving the equation (6); a, b and c parameters are calculated; where y is

the peak load, x1i is the temperature, x2i is the population data and n is the number
of years the forecasting algorithm based on. By replacing the regression parameters
in equation (5) the peak load forecasting is performed.
C. QUADRATIC REGRESSION
In this approach, the parabolic function which is given in Equation (7) is used.

The a, b and c coefficients of the parabolic function can be obtained from

Equation (8) which is written in matrix form.

The load forecasting is performed by replacing the calculated coefficients in

Equation (7).
D. EXPONENTIAL REGRESSION
In this approach, the trend equation is formed by using an exponential
function as given in equation (9).

By writing the equation (9) in logarithmic form and then applying the least
squares approach, equations (10), (11) and (12) are formed.

Since the Equation (10) is linear, by applying linear trend analysis a and b
coefficients are formed as shown in equations (13) and (14).

By replacing a and b coefficients in Equation (9) the peak loads are predicted.
ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
Figure 1 depicts the architecture of typical feed-forward multilayered neural
network consist of an input layer, (one or more) hidden layers and an output layer.
The number of hidden layers and neurons in layers is subject to problem studied
and decided upon trial-error.

The input layer receives the signal from outer environment and distributes it
to the neurons in the hidden layers. The hidden layers have computational neurons
and the number of layers depends on the functions to be used. The network
computes the actual outputs of the neurons in the hidden and output layer by using
the activation function. The error gradient for the neurons in the output layer is
calculated and the weights in the back-propagation network propagating backward
the errors associated with output neurons are adjusted. The total error at the output
layer is then reduced by redistributing the error backwards through the hidden
layers until the hidden layer is reached. The process updating the weights until the
desired output is reached defined as training. This process is called as generalised
delta rule and repeated until the error criterion for all data sets is reached. In
general, each ANN is trained on a different 80% of the training data and then
validated on the remaining 20%. Since each additional layer exponentially increases
the computing load, in practice mostly 3-layer ANNs are preferred.
In this work, in the implementation stage of the ANN, Matlab 6.5 software is
used. In the program; three layers ANN model including one hidden layer with feed
forward and back-propagation algorithm has been trained by using Levenberg
Marquardt (LM) algorithm. The network used in this study has 12 neurons in the
hidden layer with the logarithmic sigmoid activation function which is non-linear

continuous function between 0 and 1 as expressed in Equation (15) where, is the

slope constant and in general assumed equal to 1.

For inputs, along the peak load dataset, monthly temperature and population
growth are taken into account. In this study, the average monthly temperature
values are obtained from the regional meteorological record office. The monthly
population growth is calculated from the 1997 and 2000 national population
statistics using equation (16) which gives the population growth on monthly bases.
In this equation; P0 is the first and Pn is the second of the two consecutive
population statistics, n is the time interval between the statistics and r shows
population growth rate. The value of r is calculated as 5.04 x 10 -4. By using these
values the population is calculated on monthly bases. All the data which are used
for the training and testing of the ANN have been scaled to an interval of (0.25,
0.75).
In this paper, by using the peak data from TEDAS which was
recorded from 2000 2007 the least squares regression based method
and ANN, peak load demand for 2008 is validated. The results are
validated by using the real data of 2008.
PAPER 2
In this paper, the following models were used by the authors;
PROPOSED ELMAN RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORK
Fig. 2 portrays an Elman network, which is a subclass of recurrent neural
networks, has not only feed forward but also feedback connections and this
connection helps learning. Elman networks extend the static multilayer perception
(MLP) with context units; which are the PEs (processing elements) that remember
past activity. Context units are required when learning patterns over time i.e. when
the past values of the network influences the present processing. In the Elman
network, the output of the hidden PEs from the previous time step is copied to the
context units. In addition, the context units are locally recurrent i.e. they feedback
on themselves. The local recurrence decreases the values by a multiplicative
constant (time constant) as they are feedback. This constant determines the
depth i.e. how long a given value fed to the context unit will be remembered. One
can treat the context units as input unit, just as if they were obtained from external
source such as file.

PROPOSED PREDICTION TECHNIQUE

A typical load profile of 1 week contains basic component, peak and valley
components, average component, periodic component and random component.
Conventional techniques like time series methods and regression based methods
are able to extract only some of these components from the historic data. But, ANNs
by its non-linear nature can extract all the components from the training data.
However, EN modeled on original load data could not extract all of them in a well
defined manner. A certain regularity of the data is an important precondition for the
successful application of NNs.
Fig. 3 shows working block diagram of proposed prediction process. Here,
idea is to decompose the different seasonal load series using multi-resolution
analysis (MRA) with Daubechies 4 and to model it via individual fitting of each level
of resolution (frequency bands). That is, each component (A2, D2 and D1) is
modeled separately and the final prediction is obtained by adding those three
predictions. It is noticed that, the approximation A2 and all two levels of details D2
and D1 are taken into account to reconstruct the load series. Each of its submodels is introduced in sequel.

OPTIMAL DESIGN OF ELMAN RNN

APPROXIMATION COMPONENT (A2)

AS

LOAD

PREDICTOR

FOR

The Elman RNN is chosen as a load predictor to predict the approximation

component (A2) for summer season. The input and output variables are normalized
in the range of 01. The results of variation of number of inputs are graphed in Fig.
4. Its careful inspection reveals that the various performance measures such as
mean squared error (MSE), normalized mean squared error (NMSE), correlation
coefficient (r) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are noticed at their
minimal values corresponding to the optimal value of five inputs. Hence, this

architecture consists of five inputs. The number of PEs in the hidden layer is 10 and
that in the output layer is one.

Optimal design of Elman RNN as a load predictor for detail component

(D2) at decomposition levels of two
The Elman RNN is modeled on the high frequency component D2 in order to
predict it for 1-day-ahead load demand prediction in summer season. The input and
output variables are normalized in the range of 01. The results of variation of
number of inputs are graphed in Fig. 5. Its careful inspection reveals that the
various performance measures such as MSE, NMSE, r and MAPE are noticed at their
minimal corresponding to number of inputs set to 3. Hence, this architecture
consists of three inputs.

Optimal design of Elman RNN as a load predictor for detail component

(D1) at single decomposition level
The input and output variables of Elman RNN are normalized in the range of
01. The number of input variables, transfer function in output layer and learning
paradigm for this type of predictor is optimized for minimum error on prediction
data set. The results of variation of number of inputs are graphed in Fig. 7. Its
careful inspection reveals that the various performance measures such as MSE,
NMSE, r and MAPE are noticed at their minimal corresponding to the optimal value
of inputs set to 3. Hence, this architecture consists of three inputs. The number of
PEs in the hidden layer is 10 and that in the output layer is one.

This paper used wavelet multi-resolution analysis, the load series

are decomposed to different sub-series, showing different frequency
characteristics of the load. Elman network (EN) is optimally designed and
trained using static back propagation algorithm based on the optimization
of performance measures such as mean square error, correlation
coefficient and mean absolute percentage error on test prediction
dataset. Feasibility of Daubechies wavelet at different scales with suitable
number of decomposition levels is investigated to choose the best order
for different seasonal load series. The estimated models are evaluated
over different temperature and humidity in order to examine their impact
on accurate load prediction.
PAPER 3
ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK
In this section we provide a brief introduction to. Artificial Neural Networks
has been motivated right from its inception from the way that the human brain
processes information. In general neural networks are simply mathematical
techniques designed to accomplish a variety of tasks. ANN is composed of basic
computing processing elements (neurons) which connected together in a form of
layers. An artificial neuron can be represented by a simple mathematical model
which is shown in Figure 1.

Fig. 1 - The Mathematical Model of the Artificial Neuron

The Processing is usually done in two stages: first, the input values are
linearly combined and then the result is used as the argument of a nonlinear
activation function. The combination uses the weights attributed to each

connection, and a constant bias term, represented in the figure by the weight of a
connection with a fixed input equal to 1. The activation function must be a nondecreasing and differentiable function; the most common choices are the sigmoidal
(s-shaped) functions. An initially constructed ANN is like a newborn child. The
neuron weights are initialized with small random numbers when network is first
created. A process of learning or training is required to coach this unlearned
network by exposure to sample data. The most popular error correction algorithm is
the back propagation rule (BP). So, it will be used in this work.
PROPOSED TECHNIQUES
As mentioned before, long term load forecasts will be prepared using ANN
model and regression model. ANN model was used to get forecasts utilizing two
plans; two years plan and four years plan. Each plan consists of more than two
procedures we get different procedures by changing input variables and methods of
pre-processing. While regression model will be used for load forecasting of the next
year only Fig.2 shows a schematic diagram for proposed models.

REGRESSION MODEL
In this section we will use Linear Regression model to forecast peak load of
year 2006.Data used to prepare this model was historical data of years 1983-2005.
This model can be summarized as the following:

The forecasted load will be calculated as a function of GDP and Population,

previous correlation analysis has shown that annual peak load of Egypt depends
greatly on both factors GDP and population. So, these factors will be used again in
our regression model GDP and Population are called independent variables while the
load
will
be
the
dependent
variable
After
calculating
regression
Coefficients(C(1),C(2) and C(3)) the equation will be:

This equation will be applied for all data contained in data set, and load for
each year will be calculated. Figure 4 shows forecasted results from the proposed
model and the actual loads.

Here, the authors are concerned with long term load forecasting and
presents a comparison between two models applied to the Egyptian
unified network, these models are Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model
and regression model. Data pre-processing techniques have been applied
to improve forecasting accuracy of the model. Forecasting capability of
each approach is evaluated by calculating two separate statistical
evaluations of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and the
Average Absolute Percentage Error (AAVE).

LOAD FORECASTING RESULTS

PAPER 1
The results attained in this paper are summarised in Table 1 and illustrated as
graphic form in Figure 2, for simple linear, multiple linear, exponential, quadratic
and ANN approaches. The data used are the monthly averages of the peak loads
recorded between years 2000 and 2008.

It can be seen from the results that the results attained with the
linear and exponential regression approach are very close to each other.

For exponential and simple linear regression approaches the highest

prediction errors are found in October with a forecasting error of -8.39 and -8.85 %
in January respectively. As for the ANN the highest forecasting error is in December
corresponding to-9.85 %. From these results it is evident that with the lowest mean
absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 3.53%, the ANN based algorithm, in general
has relatively lower forecasting error and superior to the classical approaches
studied.

PAPER 2
EFFECT ON PERFORMANCE OF DAUBECHIES WAVELET WITH DIFFERENT
ORDERS AND LEVEL OF RESOLUTIONS

The feasibility of Daubechies wavelet of orders 25 has been investigated and

results have clearly justified the choice of Db4. It has been found out that Db4 is
consistently performing reasonably in all seasons. However, a resolution level up to
2 is adequate for all seasons.

INFLUENCE OF TEMPERATURE ON STLP

It has been observed from the (Tables 1113) that the DMAPE and maximum
APE are small under the influence of temperature. From the results depicted in
(Tables 1113), it is clearly seen that, lone temperature plays a significant role in
improving the prediction accuracy in all seasons. It is also confirmed that, when
temperature and humidity are considered simultaneously and also for lone
humidity, average prediction accuracy over 1 week period for different seasons is
degraded considerably. Hence, from the results, it is inferred that temperature as a
single weather variable has a significant effect on 1-day ahead load prediction.

PAPER 3
1. For ANN model using GDP and population we get accurate forecasts with
MAPE 0.2104% with very simple two layer structure.
2. By changing the training set to use the new factor represented in
GDPPOP, we get more reduced error of 0.18%.
3. By applying this methodology to forecast both energy sales and peak load
for year 2007.We get forecasts with MAPE of 0.284.
4. Two (2) variable regression models were tested to forecast peak load of
year 2006. This model gives relatively good results, if compared to other
regression models proposed in literature. The forecasted load was 17837.8
MW, with percentage error 3.109%, the average error for 24 observations
equals 3.278 %.

SIGNIFICANT FINDINGS
PAPER 1
In this paper, upon comparison of the forecasting for 2008 results attained, it
was found out that with the use of longer input data, the forecasting error is
decreased. In this study, when the different load forecasting techniques are
compared for Kutahya, it is seen that the ANN approach has produced better results.
PAPER 2

The major contribution of this paper is the increase in the 1-dayahead

prediction accuracy in all seasons by employing the proposed novel combination of
wavelet-Elman network. The proposed technique offers reliable and encouraging
results. The empirical results show that, Db4 is consistently performing reasonably
in all seasons. Resolution up to Level 2 is adequate for summer, rainy and winter
seasons.
It has been observed that the DMAPE and maximum APE are small for
temperature as a single weather factor. Further, lone predicted humidity as well as
predicted both temperature and humidity were also considered in order to gauze
the effect on prediction performance.
PAPER 3
In this paper, the result of the new methodology of combining one or two
variables to get a new training variable reduces significantly the forecasting error.
Also, pre-processing of training data set has a noticeable effect in improving
forecasting accuracy.

CONCLUSION
This article review shows that among the methods available for
electric power load forecasting, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based
methods gives the best result. It significantly reduces the forecasting
error.
This review also shows that combining two or more variables gives a
much better result in forecasting electrical load.
This also shows that when the available data has a longer time span,
the result of forecasting would be more accurate.

COMMENTS
Given that the area covered by the following research was very
large, still, the authors deliver a good result and suggests a much better
model in electric power load forecasting which is very helpful in another
study and if such method will be applied in a different area.
Data processing done by the researchers using MatLab software is
advantageous because of its built-in computing functions that can be
applied in load forecasting with ease and such reduces the risk of
computing errors.

By giving helpful suggestions on the different methods to be applied

in load forecasting, the researchers contributed to solutions of predicting
accurate values for future loads which in turn lessens the burden of doing
a more reliable energy planning.