Landslides
A Multidisciplinary
Approach
International Symposium
Geohazards and Society
29-30 November 2012
NGI, Oslo, Norway
Suzanne Lacasse
International Centre for Geohazards (ICG)/
Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI)
FS = 1.39, Pf = 0.008
2.0
1.5
1.0
Probability
of failure
FS = 1.73, Pf = 0.020
0.5
-1.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
1.0
2.0
Factor of safety
3.0
4.0
Changing
hazards
Probabilistic
risk
assessment
Changing
vulnerability
Risk
management
process
ISO 31000
(2009)
What is risk?
Risk has two distinctive connotations:
- in popular usage, the emphasis is usually placed on
the concept of chance or possibility, such as in the
risk of an accident.
- in technical settings, the emphasis is usually placed
on the consequences, in terms of potential losses
for some particular cause, place and period.
Traditional definition of risk in technical settings:
Risk is the combination of the probability of an event and
its negative consequences. It is considered to be a
function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability.
Danger identification
Assessment of severity of
consequence and risk
Acceptability/tolerability of risk,
decision-making and mitigation
Pre-requisite
Communication within and outside
the risk team throughout the entire process
About
Participatory process
in Romania
Buiding of large mine tailings
dam in Transylvania in
Romania
Concerns:
dam breach and pollution from
escaping tailings
knes
10-14 mill. m3
30-40 mill. m3
meteorologist
physical geographer
social geographer
geologist
engineering geologist
rock mechanics specialist
geotechnical engineer
tsunami specialist
instrumentation specialist
earthquake engineer
seismologist
mathematician
statistician
Depends entirely
on whether the
situation is
voluntary or
imposed.
Risk perception
Low
sport activities
High
High
Traffic accidents
working accidents
Fires
Food safety
Transport of dangerous
goods
Flooding
Radiation
Max Geldens Stichting, 2002
Objective risk
Perceived risk
Low
Integrated geosciences
Geological model
- depositional climate
- age
- historic slide activity
f:\i\41\stab\overhead\2001\Terzaghi\Terzlect01.ppt
3D Seismics + HR 2D
Physical
model
for geohazards
assessment
Soil investigations
- field tests
- sampling
- lab. testing
Guatemala, 1976
Annual probability
10-3
10-5
10-7
10-9
10-11
1
10
100
1000
10000
Emerging issues
Experts acting alone cannot choose the most
appropriate" hazard or risk treatment method. A multidisciplinary approach is underlined by all United Nations
organizations working in this field.
Policy-makers recognize that traditional expert-based
decision-making processes are insufficient in
controversial risk contexts. The expert approach can
favour "objective" analyses, leading to decisions that lack
public acceptance.
Emerging issues
A deciding factor on whether an extreme event turns into a
disaster is the social vulnerability of the population at risk,
i.e. the capacity to prepare for, respond to and recover from
an extreme event.
Our profession needs to contribute to the prevention of
"events" turning into disasters:
hazards are mostly unavoidable, disasters are not.
f:\i\41\stab\overhead\2001\Terzaghi\Terzlect01.ppt
Thank you
for your attention!