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<a href=Desalination 380 (2016) 18 28 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Desalination journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/desal Economic effects analysis of seawater desalination in China with input – output technology Qingrong Zou, Xiuli Liu ⁎ Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information System, Center for Forecasting Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China HIGHLIGHTS • The paper made seawater-desalination investment effects in China innovatively with input-output analysis. • The results showed the seawater desalination had a large investment multiplier 2.488. • It had obvious demand pulling and supply pushing effects on Chinese economy. article info Article history: Received 21 May 2015 Received in revised form 9 November 2015 Accepted 12 November 2015 Available online 2 December 2015 Keywords: Seawater desalination Economic effects Input – output analysis China abstract Seawater desalination is an important way to alleviate the shortage of water resources in the coastal area. To pro- vide reference for investment decisions on seawater desalination, this paper made the economic effects analysis of seawater desalination investment in China. The competitive partial closed input – output model was applied. The results showed that the seawater desalination sector had a large investment multiplier 2.49 (ranked 9th in 18 sectors). Its in fl uence coef fi cient and sensitivity coef fi cient were 1.09 (ranked 8th) and 1.14 (ranked 6th) sep- arately, which revealed that it had obvious demand pulling and supply pushing effects on the national economy. Crown Copyright © 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction China is severely short of water, which accounts for about 6% of global freshwater resources and its water consumption per capita is less than 2200 m which is a quarter of the world's average. In 2014, more than 400 cities out of 561 cities were de fi cient in water resources in China. Most of them are located in the north, semi-arid and arid regions of north- west China. In 32 megalopolises that the population is over one million, there are 30 cities plagued by water shortages for a long time; in 14 open coastal cities, there are 9 cities that seriously lack of water resources. Due to excessive exploitation of groundwater, land subsidence, regional under- ground funnel area increase, the ecological deterioration and geological di- sasters and other issues happen more frequently in some water shortage cities. Water scarcity has restricted the economic development of China. Fresh water accounts for about 97% of the total seawater, equivalent to the maximum steady and reliable fresh water reservoir, and seawater desalination is a promising way to release water scarcity. Analyzing eco- nomic effects of seawater desalination could help the government and investors make appropriate investment decisions. Notwithstanding, ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: qingrongzou@126.com (Q. Zou), xiuli.liu@amss.ac.cn (X. Liu). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.desal.2015.11.010 0011-9164/Crown Copyright © 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. the related literatures we retrieved were mostly from the perspective of direct cost analysis, and we haven't found literatures which made economic effects analysis of seawater desalination through inter- industries. There are different processes of seawater desalination such as MSF, ED, thermal and membrane. The costs of them are different, generally thermal and membrane processes with economic advantages [1 – 5] . For example, [5] carried out fi rstly an extensive economic evalu- ation of FO – RO hybrid, benchmarked against stand-alone RO system, the results showed that FO – RO hybrid could be bene fi cial only for high energy costs and/or substantial operational cost savings, compara- tively to RO. It was also demonstrated that improvement in water per- meation fl ux was an absolute prerequisite to lower investment costs down to an economically acceptable level. For the impact of project scale on the cost of seawater desalination, it is found that expansion of the scale of seawater desalination projects could reduce the unit cost [6 – 7] . Some research is concerned with the cost comparison of seawater desalination projects which consumed different kind of energy [8 – 11] . There are several literatures on direct cost analysis and assessment of seawater desalination, such as Ref. [12] explored the development of seawater desalination costs over time which included the transport cost of desalinated water to the destination cities; [13] provided an overview of factors that determined seawater desalination cost, typical " id="pdf-obj-0-7" src="pdf-obj-0-7.jpg">

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Desalination

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/desal

<a href=Desalination 380 (2016) 18 28 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Desalination journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/desal Economic effects analysis of seawater desalination in China with input – output technology Qingrong Zou, Xiuli Liu ⁎ Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information System, Center for Forecasting Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China HIGHLIGHTS • The paper made seawater-desalination investment effects in China innovatively with input-output analysis. • The results showed the seawater desalination had a large investment multiplier 2.488. • It had obvious demand pulling and supply pushing effects on Chinese economy. article info Article history: Received 21 May 2015 Received in revised form 9 November 2015 Accepted 12 November 2015 Available online 2 December 2015 Keywords: Seawater desalination Economic effects Input – output analysis China abstract Seawater desalination is an important way to alleviate the shortage of water resources in the coastal area. To pro- vide reference for investment decisions on seawater desalination, this paper made the economic effects analysis of seawater desalination investment in China. The competitive partial closed input – output model was applied. The results showed that the seawater desalination sector had a large investment multiplier 2.49 (ranked 9th in 18 sectors). Its in fl uence coef fi cient and sensitivity coef fi cient were 1.09 (ranked 8th) and 1.14 (ranked 6th) sep- arately, which revealed that it had obvious demand pulling and supply pushing effects on the national economy. Crown Copyright © 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction China is severely short of water, which accounts for about 6% of global freshwater resources and its water consumption per capita is less than 2200 m which is a quarter of the world's average. In 2014, more than 400 cities out of 561 cities were de fi cient in water resources in China. Most of them are located in the north, semi-arid and arid regions of north- west China. In 32 megalopolises that the population is over one million, there are 30 cities plagued by water shortages for a long time; in 14 open coastal cities, there are 9 cities that seriously lack of water resources. Due to excessive exploitation of groundwater, land subsidence, regional under- ground funnel area increase, the ecological deterioration and geological di- sasters and other issues happen more frequently in some water shortage cities. Water scarcity has restricted the economic development of China. Fresh water accounts for about 97% of the total seawater, equivalent to the maximum steady and reliable fresh water reservoir, and seawater desalination is a promising way to release water scarcity. Analyzing eco- nomic effects of seawater desalination could help the government and investors make appropriate investment decisions. Notwithstanding, ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: qingrongzou@126.com (Q. Zou), xiuli.liu@amss.ac.cn (X. Liu). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.desal.2015.11.010 0011-9164/Crown Copyright © 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. the related literatures we retrieved were mostly from the perspective of direct cost analysis, and we haven't found literatures which made economic effects analysis of seawater desalination through inter- industries. There are different processes of seawater desalination such as MSF, ED, thermal and membrane. The costs of them are different, generally thermal and membrane processes with economic advantages [1 – 5] . For example, [5] carried out fi rstly an extensive economic evalu- ation of FO – RO hybrid, benchmarked against stand-alone RO system, the results showed that FO – RO hybrid could be bene fi cial only for high energy costs and/or substantial operational cost savings, compara- tively to RO. It was also demonstrated that improvement in water per- meation fl ux was an absolute prerequisite to lower investment costs down to an economically acceptable level. For the impact of project scale on the cost of seawater desalination, it is found that expansion of the scale of seawater desalination projects could reduce the unit cost [6 – 7] . Some research is concerned with the cost comparison of seawater desalination projects which consumed different kind of energy [8 – 11] . There are several literatures on direct cost analysis and assessment of seawater desalination, such as Ref. [12] explored the development of seawater desalination costs over time which included the transport cost of desalinated water to the destination cities; [13] provided an overview of factors that determined seawater desalination cost, typical " id="pdf-obj-0-17" src="pdf-obj-0-17.jpg">

Economic effects analysis of seawater desalination in China with inputoutput technology

Qingrong Zou, Xiuli Liu

<a href=Desalination 380 (2016) 18 28 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Desalination journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/desal Economic effects analysis of seawater desalination in China with input – output technology Qingrong Zou, Xiuli Liu ⁎ Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information System, Center for Forecasting Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China HIGHLIGHTS • The paper made seawater-desalination investment effects in China innovatively with input-output analysis. • The results showed the seawater desalination had a large investment multiplier 2.488. • It had obvious demand pulling and supply pushing effects on Chinese economy. article info Article history: Received 21 May 2015 Received in revised form 9 November 2015 Accepted 12 November 2015 Available online 2 December 2015 Keywords: Seawater desalination Economic effects Input – output analysis China abstract Seawater desalination is an important way to alleviate the shortage of water resources in the coastal area. To pro- vide reference for investment decisions on seawater desalination, this paper made the economic effects analysis of seawater desalination investment in China. The competitive partial closed input – output model was applied. The results showed that the seawater desalination sector had a large investment multiplier 2.49 (ranked 9th in 18 sectors). Its in fl uence coef fi cient and sensitivity coef fi cient were 1.09 (ranked 8th) and 1.14 (ranked 6th) sep- arately, which revealed that it had obvious demand pulling and supply pushing effects on the national economy. Crown Copyright © 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction China is severely short of water, which accounts for about 6% of global freshwater resources and its water consumption per capita is less than 2200 m which is a quarter of the world's average. In 2014, more than 400 cities out of 561 cities were de fi cient in water resources in China. Most of them are located in the north, semi-arid and arid regions of north- west China. In 32 megalopolises that the population is over one million, there are 30 cities plagued by water shortages for a long time; in 14 open coastal cities, there are 9 cities that seriously lack of water resources. Due to excessive exploitation of groundwater, land subsidence, regional under- ground funnel area increase, the ecological deterioration and geological di- sasters and other issues happen more frequently in some water shortage cities. Water scarcity has restricted the economic development of China. Fresh water accounts for about 97% of the total seawater, equivalent to the maximum steady and reliable fresh water reservoir, and seawater desalination is a promising way to release water scarcity. Analyzing eco- nomic effects of seawater desalination could help the government and investors make appropriate investment decisions. Notwithstanding, ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: qingrongzou@126.com (Q. Zou), xiuli.liu@amss.ac.cn (X. Liu). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.desal.2015.11.010 0011-9164/Crown Copyright © 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. the related literatures we retrieved were mostly from the perspective of direct cost analysis, and we haven't found literatures which made economic effects analysis of seawater desalination through inter- industries. There are different processes of seawater desalination such as MSF, ED, thermal and membrane. The costs of them are different, generally thermal and membrane processes with economic advantages [1 – 5] . For example, [5] carried out fi rstly an extensive economic evalu- ation of FO – RO hybrid, benchmarked against stand-alone RO system, the results showed that FO – RO hybrid could be bene fi cial only for high energy costs and/or substantial operational cost savings, compara- tively to RO. It was also demonstrated that improvement in water per- meation fl ux was an absolute prerequisite to lower investment costs down to an economically acceptable level. For the impact of project scale on the cost of seawater desalination, it is found that expansion of the scale of seawater desalination projects could reduce the unit cost [6 – 7] . Some research is concerned with the cost comparison of seawater desalination projects which consumed different kind of energy [8 – 11] . There are several literatures on direct cost analysis and assessment of seawater desalination, such as Ref. [12] explored the development of seawater desalination costs over time which included the transport cost of desalinated water to the destination cities; [13] provided an overview of factors that determined seawater desalination cost, typical " id="pdf-obj-0-27" src="pdf-obj-0-27.jpg">

Key Laboratory of Management, Decision and Information System, Center for Forecasting Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

HIGHLIGHTS

The paper made seawater-desalination investment effects in China innovatively with input-output analysis. The results showed the seawater desalination had a large investment multiplier 2.488. It had obvious demand pulling and supply pushing effects on Chinese economy.

article info

Article history:

Received 21 May 2015 Received in revised form 9 November 2015 Accepted 12 November 2015 Available online 2 December 2015

Keywords:

Seawater desalination

Economic effects

Inputoutput analysis

China

abstract

Seawater desalination is an important way to alleviate the shortage of water resources in the coastal area. To pro- vide reference for investment decisions on seawater desalination, this paper made the economic effects analysis of seawater desalination investment in China. The competitive partial closed inputoutput model was applied. The results showed that the seawater desalination sector had a large investment multiplier 2.49 (ranked 9th in

18 sectors). Its inuence coefcient and sensitivity coefcient were 1.09 (ranked 8th) and 1.14 (ranked 6th) sep-

arately, which revealed that it had obvious demand pulling and supply pushing effects on the national economy. Crown Copyright © 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

China is severely short of water, which accounts for about 6% of global freshwater resources and its water consumption per capita is less than 2200 m 3 which is a quarter of the world's average. In 2014, more than 400 cities out of 561 cities were decient in water resources in China. Most of them are located in the north, semi-arid and arid regions of north- west China. In 32 megalopolises that the population is over one million, there are 30 cities plagued by water shortages for a long time; in 14 open coastal cities, there are 9 cities that seriously lack of water resources. Due to excessive exploitation of groundwater, land subsidence, regional under- ground funnel area increase, the ecological deterioration and geological di- sasters and other issues happen more frequently in some water shortage cities. Water scarcity has restricted the economic development of China. Fresh water accounts for about 97% of the total seawater, equivalent to the maximum steady and reliable fresh water reservoir, and seawater desalination is a promising way to release water scarcity. Analyzing eco- nomic effects of seawater desalination could help the government and investors make appropriate investment decisions. Notwithstanding,

Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: qingrongzou@126.com (Q. Zou), xiuli.liu@amss.ac.cn (X. Liu).

0011-9164/Crown Copyright © 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

the related literatures we retrieved were mostly from the perspective of direct cost analysis, and we haven't found literatures which made economic effects analysis of seawater desalination through inter- industries. There are different processes of seawater desalination such as MSF, ED, thermal and membrane. The costs of them are different, generally thermal and membrane processes with economic advantages [15]. For example, [5] carried out rstly an extensive economic evalu- ation of FORO hybrid, benchmarked against stand-alone RO system, the results showed that FORO hybrid could be benecial only for high energy costs and/or substantial operational cost savings, compara- tively to RO. It was also demonstrated that improvement in water per- meation ux was an absolute prerequisite to lower investment costs down to an economically acceptable level. For the impact of project scale on the cost of seawater desalination, it is found that expansion of the scale of seawater desalination projects could reduce the unit cost [67]. Some research is concerned with the cost comparison of seawater desalination projects which consumed different kind of energy [811]. There are several literatures on direct cost analysis and assessment of seawater desalination, such as Ref. [12] explored the development of seawater desalination costs over time which included the transport cost of desalinated water to the destination cities; [13] provided an overview of factors that determined seawater desalination cost, typical

Q. Zou, X. Liu / Desalination 380 (2016) 1828

19

seawater desalination cost estimation models and approximate cost es- timate; [14] reviewed seawater desalination cost literatures to allow meaningful comparisons. Ref. [15] provided an in-depth cost and price analysis of desalination with country specic examples, depicted a com- prehensive picture of cost variability of desalinated water and pointed out challenges for cost-effective desalination in the future. Ref. [16] an- alyzed the economics of desalination by cost analysis and its potential application to Australia, and showed that in Australia the cost of tradi- tional fresh water sources may rise which will promote the develop- ment of desalination. For estimating methodologies of seawater desalination cost, Ref. [17] reviewed the history of seawater desalina- tion cost estimations; Ref. [18] presented a clear and easy methodology for estimating seawater desalination costs; Ref. [19] presented a techno- economic evaluation and review of the costing aspects and the main pa- rameters inuencing the total water cost produced by different seawa- ter desalination technologies in detail; The IAEA DEEP software has been applied for economic evaluation of seawater desalination plants [2022]. Ref. [23] analyzed costs of more than 24 thermal desalination plants to evaluate the reliability of them. However, we didn't nd re- search on the investment effects, the demand pulling and supply push- ing effects of the seawater desalination on the other industries in a national economic system, which could help the government and inves- tors make appropriate investment decisions and development planning. Inputoutput analysis method is one of the most widely applied methods in economics, which can analyze effectively the interdepen- dence of industries in an economy. It was developed by Wassily Leontief in the late 1930s, in recognition of which he received the Nobel Prize in Economics Science in 1973. The model is widely applied throughout the world, such as the United Nations has promoted inputoutput as a prac- tical planning tool for developing countries and has sponsored a standard- ized system of economic accounts for constructing inputoutput tables; the US Department of Commerce applied inputoutput routinely in na- tional economic analysis, and in regional economic planning and analysis by states, industry, and the research community [24]. Inputoutput meth- od is used to identify the best approach when we reveal knowledge about an area's economy, estimate total impact of certain events or policy changes and evaluate and assess specic goals, scenarios, etc. [25]. With respect to China, it was frequently used to estimate the effect of policy implementations on water use efciency, water pricing; buildings' energy saving potentials etc. [2632]. In this paper we compiled an inputoutput table with seawater desalination industry as a separate sector based on China InputOutput table in 2010. The competitive partial closed inputoutput model was applied to make the economic effects analysis of sea- water desalination investment in China economic system. In the following parts of the paper, Section 2 described the present situation of seawater desalination in China. Section 3 made cost analysis of seawater desalination in China. Section 4 introduced inputoutput

method. Section 5 made economic effects analysis of seawater desalina- tion in China. Section 6 presented conclusion.

  • 2. The development of seawater desalination in China

In China, the capacity of seawater desalination increased very slowly before 2005, after that it increased rapidly and the average annual growth rate reached to 73.32% during the 11th ve-year plan(see Fig. 1). By the end of year 2013, China had built 103 seawater desalina- tion projects, which produced 900,830 m 3 /d desalted water, increased 16% compared with 2012, and 8 seawater desalination projects were newly built in 2013 whose total capacity is 125,465 m 3 /d. In China, the largest low-temperature multi-effect desalination project produced 200,000 m 3 /d and the largest reverse osmosis desalination project pro- duced 100,000 m 3 /d at the moment. China's seawater desalination projects mainly locate at coastal cities and islands, most of them are in North China which has shortage of water re- sources. The desalinated seawater is consumed by industries such as the electric power, iron and steel and other high-water consumed industries. These industries are mostly concentrated in Tianjin, Hebei, and Shandong province of China. In South China, desalination projects mostly locate at Zhejiang, Fujian and Hainan whose capacity is hundreds of tons or thou- sands of tons usually. Tianjin has the largest seawater desalination project whose capacity is 3,172,000 m 3 /d, and the capacity of seawater desalination projects in Hebei, Shandong and Zhejiang is also more than 100,000 m 3 /d. Among them, Shandong province had the biggest expansion of seawater desalination capacity in 2013, the capacity increased from 65,200 m 3 /d to 165,200 m 3 /d and the increased rate was 153.37% compared with 2012. The two main processing technologies of seawater desalination named reverse osmosis (RO) and low-temperature multi-effect distilla- tion (MED) are adopted in China. In 2013, there were 90 projects apply- ing RO which produced 573,540 m 3 /d and accounted for 63.67% of the total capacity. There were 11 projects that applied MED which produced 321,090 m 3 /d and accounted for 35.64% of the total capacity. Concentrated seawater was a by-product of the seawater desalination process. It can be recycling used or discharged directly into the sea. Caofeidian Industrial Zone set a good example in the concentrated seawa- ter recycling. Annually, 18 million cubic meters of concentrated seawater is treated, 600,000 t crude salt is produced, 10 million cubic meters of water resources is saved, 40,000 t of carbon dioxide emissions is reduced. The annual benet is about 80 million RMB [34]. The successful experi- ence of Caofeidian Industrial Zone has been popularized in China.

  • 3. Cost analysis of seawater desalination in China

Seawater desalination costs were mainly composed by investment cost, comprehensive water cost and transportation cost. In this paper,

Q. Zou, X. Liu / Desalination 380 (2016) 18 – 28 19 seawater desalination cost estimation

Fig. 1. Change trend of seawater desalination capacity in China during 19902013. Source: the data of 2012 and 2013 years are from the 2012 National Seawater Utilization Report and 2013 National Seawater Utilization Report published by the State Oceanic Administration, other data are from Ref. [33].

20

Q. Zou, X. Liu / Desalination 380 (2016) 1828

investment cost covers desalination equipment expenses, project construc-

tion fees, costs for installation and management of this process. Compre-

hensive water cost, includes chemical expenses, electricity expenses,

membrane replacement cost, employee wages and benets, depreciation

of xed assets, equipment repair and maintenance fees, management fees

and other parts. According to 2013 Seawater Utilization Reportpublished

by the State Oceanic Administration, the cost of producing desalted water

focused on (58) RMB/t in 2013. Among which, average cost of engineering

whose capacity is more than 10,000 m 3 /d is 6.95 RMB/t, average cost of pro-

jects whose capacity is thousands of cubic meters per day is 8.15 RMB/t.

We can see from Table 1, seawater desalination equipment costs are

various if the method is different; the investment cost went down as

the project scale increased. In China, generally, investment cost of RO

seawater desalination projects is 700010,000 RMB/t; investment cost

of MED seawater desalination projects is between 8000 and 12,000

RMB/t. At present, except some key components, most components

of seawater desalination equipment are manufactured domestically.

However, the price of imported equipment is pretty higher than that of

domestic. The actual project investment cost will be at different level

due to the different construction, installation and levels of management.

Tables 2 and 3 showed that the cost for the power consumption and

the depreciation of xed assets accounted for a large proportion of the

comprehensive seawater desalination costs. Therefore, to make energy

application more efcient or use renewable energy can effectively re-

duce the comprehensive cost.

The transportation cost is also one component of seawater desalina-

tion cost. Ref. [39] explored Caofeidian desalination project and estimat-

ed its transportation cost was 0.63 RMB/t. Ref. [40] found that the

transportation cost of seawater desalination of SDIC Beijiang power

plant was 1.16 RMB/t. Referred to their ndings, the paper assumed

the transportation cost of seawater desalination in China was 1 RMB/t.

4. Inputoutput method

4.1. Competitive IO table

Competitive IO table is the IO table in which the import is not sep-

arated from the intermediate ow. Table 4 shows the framework of a

competitive IO table. The data for the parameters in the IO framework

applied in this paper are showed in the attachment.

In Table 4, the rows describe the distribution of each sector's output

throughout the economy and the columns describe the inputs of each indus-

try to produce its output. The nal demand records the sales by each industry

to nal markets and the value added accounts for the non-industrial inputs to

production. Intermediate input z ij describes that the deliveries of good i

(which is produced in sector i) are sold to sector j (to be used as an interme-

diate input in the production of sector j); x j gives the gross input in sector j

and x i is the total output of sector i. According to the denition of x i ,

x i ¼ z i1 þ z i2 þ þ z in þ f i

ð1Þ

The technical coefcient (direct consumption coefcient) is viewed

as measuring quantitative relationships between a sector's output and

its inputs. It is dened as follows:

The complete consumption coefcient is dened as follows:

b ij ¼ ðIAÞ 1 I ij

ð3Þ

where A = (a ij ) n × n , matrix I is the identify matrix, (IA) 1 is known as

the Leontief inverse matrix.

4.2.

Ref. [24],

 
 

n

 

~

 

X

b ij

 

δ j ¼

i¼1

 

n

n

 

X

~

 

ð1=nÞ X

b

ij

 

j¼1 i¼1

 
 

n

~

i¼1

Ref. [24],

 
 

n

X

~

g ij

 

θ i ¼

j¼1

n

n

 

1=n X

 

~

X

g ij

 

i¼1 j¼1

 

n

 

~

 

j¼1

matrix.

 

4.3.

Inuence coefcient and sensitivity coefcient

Backward linkage (inuence coefcient) is used to indicate the kind

of interconnection of a particular sector with those (upstream) sectors

from which it purchases inputs. Forward linkage (sensitivity coefcient)

is used to indicate the kind of interconnection of a particular sector with

those (downstream) sectors to which it sells its output. Comparisons of

the strengths of backward and forward linkages for sectors in a single

economy provide one mechanism for identifying keyor leading

sectors in that economy (those sectors that are most connected and

therefore, in some sense, most important) and for grouping sectors

into spatial clusters [24].

We adopted the following backward linkage formula cited from

j ¼ 1; 2; ; n

ðÞ

ð4Þ

where b ij ¼ μ 0 ðI AÞ 1 , μ =(1,1 1). In this case, sector j's backward

linkage is divided by the simple average of all backward linkages. When

δ j = 1, it indicates the strength of the backward linkage of sector j equiv-

alents to the average level.

We adopted the following forward linkage formula cited from

ði ¼ 1; 2; ; nÞ

ð5Þ

where g ij ¼ ðI H Þ 1 μ , (I H) 1 is known as the Ghosh inverse

The partial closed inputoutput model and investment multiplier

The partial closed inputoutput model referred to the model after

making partial nal demands endogenous. Household consumption is

considered as an endogenous sector usually, xed capital formation is

also can be regarded as an endogenous sector .[24] . When household con-

sumption is seen as an endogenous sector, the direct consumption coef-

cient matrix A changed into A* as follows:

a ij ¼

z ij =x j ; i; j ¼ 1; 2n

ð2Þ

Table 1 Investment cost of typical seawater desalination projects. Source from LAVENDER Water Treatment Company, http://www.docin.com/p-671787304.html.

A ¼

  • 2
    6 ⋮⋮

a

11

a

1n

a 1;nþ1

  • 6 a n;nþ1

a

n1

  • 4 a nþ1;1

a

nn

a nþ1;n

a nþ1;nþ1

3

7

7

5

Project scale

RO investment

MED investment

The last column of A is the proportion of each sector's household

(m 3 /d)

(million RMB)

(million RMB)

consumption in the total household consumption. The last row of A is

100

0.901.20

11.5

the household income coefcient vector, namely labor compensation

500

45.50

4.56.5

of sector j divided by its total input.

1000

79

912

Investment multiplier refers to the national value added increase in-

duced by new added unit investment directly and indirectly. Input

10,000

7080

80110

Q. Zou, X. Liu / Desalination 380 (2016) 1828

21

Table 2 RO seawater desalination main comprehensive cost. Note: We adopted the data of the second column in this paper and it sourced from LAVENDER Water Treatment Company, http://www.docin.com/p-671787304.html.

 

LAVENDER Water Treatment

Tan YW et al. (2004), Rongcheng

Gao YP (2013), national

Liu BW et al. (2010),

Li

XM (2010),

Company 10,000 m 3 /d

Project 10,000 m 3 /d [35]

average level [36]

5000 m 3 /d [37]

15,000 m 3 /d [38]

Chemicals

0.30.5

0.36

0.4

0.36

0.391

Electricity

About 2.22.5

2.4

2.202.38

1.6

1.71

Membrane replacement

0.30.5

0.36

0.60.9

0.38

0.923

Staff wages and benets

About 0.2

0.13

0.18

0.04

Depreciation of xed assets

0.91.2

1.17

0.871.3

1.11

0.97

Equipment repair maintenance fees 0.20.4

0.18

0.270.41

0.18

0.23

Management

Less than 0.1

0.1

0.09

0.008

Table 3 MED seawater desalination main comprehensive cost. Note: We adopted the data of the second column in this paper and it sourced from LAVENDER Water Treatment Company, http://www.docin.com/p-671787304.html.

 
 

LAVENDER Water Treatment

Gao YP (2013), national average level

Liu BW et al. (2010), Huangdao Project,

Li

XM (2010),

Company, 10,000 m 3 /d

of the cost [36]

3000 m 3 /d [37]

15,000 m 3 /d [38]

Heat

2

2.012.76

1.6

1.60

Chemicals

0.20.5

0.3

0.2

0.162

Electricity

About 0.6

0.56

0.78

0.6

Staff wages and benets

About 0.2

0.2

0.053

Depreciation of xed assets

1.11.7

1.161.59

1.84

1.37

Equipment repair maintenance fees 0.30.6

0.360.5

0.27

1.03

Management

About 0.1

0.1

0.1

0.01

output analysis model researches effectively how investment promotes

the economic development through industrious interconnections and

transmission mechanism. We see household consumption as an endog-

enous sector and classied it in the rst quadrant of an inputoutput

table. The idea for establishing partial closed inputoutput analysis

model is to consider the linkages and conductivity among the nal

demand.

In the partial closed model, investment multiplier is dened in Ref.

[24] as follows,

ΔGDP ¼ a v ð

I

A

Þ 1 ΔI

ð6Þ

where a v is the value added coefcient vector, a v = (a v1 ,a v2 ,,a vn ,0),

a vj = v j / x j , j = 1,2,,n. v j and x j are value added and output of sector

j.ΔI is the vector of investment change. In calculationΔI = (0,01

0,0) if there were some investment for one sector and none for the

other sectors, the order of A is (n + 1).

5. Economic effects analysis of seawater desalination in China

Based on China 2010 inputoutput table from Statistic Yearbook, we

compiled an inputoutput table with 18 sectors in which the seawater

desalination sector is separated especially from the electricity, heat and

water production and supply sector. According to the table, with compet-

itive partial closed inputoutput model, we calculated the dependence of

Table 4 The framework of competitive IO table.

seawater desalination on other sectors, the demand pulling and supply

pushing effects of seawater desalination on the national economy, the in-

vestment multiplier effect and the structure of its initial input.

5.1. Dependence of seawater desalination on other sectors

The direct consumption coefcient (technical coefcient) is calculat-

ed by Eq. (2), where, a ij means when sector j produces unit production, it

needs a ij production of sector i. When a ij is closer to 1, it indicates that the

productions of sector j are more dependent on sector i. While a ij is closer

to zero, it means less direct connections between sector j and sector i.

The direct consumption coefcient matrix and the complete con-

sumption coefcient matrix are showed in Appendices 2 and 3. The di-

rect consumption coefcients of seawater desalination industry with

other sectors were shown in Table 5, we can see that the seawater desa-

lination sector was most directly dependent on electricity, heat and

water production and supply sector, which include two sub-sectors

(water production and supply sector and electricity, heat production

and supply sector) and more dependent on electricity, heat production

and supply sector, followed by machinery and equipment manufactur-

ing, chemical sector and nancial sector (See Table 5).

Due to complex relationships among various sectors, one sector may

indirectly consume products of another sector, so the complete con-

sumption coefcient indicates how many productions one sector

needs from another sector when it produces unit nal production. The

 

Output

Intermediate demand

Final demand

Total output

Input

1 2 n

Consumption

Capital formation

Net exports

Intermediate input

1

  • x i

Primary input

Total input

2

n

Employees' compensation Net taxes on production Fixed assets depreciation Operating surplus

  • I II

z ij

III

v j
v
j

x j

f i

22

Q. Zou, X. Liu / Desalination 380 (2016) 1828

Table 5

Direct and complete consumption coefcients of seawater desalination industry in each sector.

Sector name

Direct

Complete

consumption consumption

coefcient

coefcient

Machinery and equipment manufacturing

0.1271

0.3959

Electricity, heat and water production and supply

0.1968

0.3790

(not include desalination) Chemical

0.1335

0.3355

Mining

0

0.1953

Transportation and warehousing and postal services 0.0975

0.1836

Financial services

0.1020

0.1627

Other services

0.0307

0.1627

Metal products industry

0.0000

0.1536

Coke, gas and oil processing industry Wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and

0

0.0802

catering industry

0

0.0602

Other manufacturing

0

0.0554

Real estate, renting and business services

0

0.0444

Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and shery

0

0.0426

Building industry

0.0294

0.0329

Food, beverage and tobacco manufacturing industry 0

0.0310

Non-metallic mineral products industry Textiles, apparel and leather products

0

0.0291

manufacturing

0

0.0258

Seawater desalination

0

0.0001

complete consumption coefcient reects the dependence of one sector

on another sector more comprehensively. According to complete con-

sumption coefcients by descending order in Table 5, desalination is de-

pendent on machinery and equipment manufacturing sector mostly.

5.2. Linkages between seawater desalination sector and other sectors

The larger inuence coefcient of a sector indicates that the sector

needs more goods from other sectors, which means it has greater de-

mand pulling effect on other sectors. Increasing investment in the sector

which has a larger inuence coefcient will cause more demand from

other sectors, and then promote the development of the national econ-

omy. However, in the operation we should also consider the resource

limitation. The distribution coefcient matrix H is showed in Appendix

4. According to Eqs. (4) and (5), we can calculate inuence coefcient

and sensitivity coefcient of each sector which were showed in

Table 6. The manufacturing sector had the largest inuence coefcient,

followed by metal products industry and chemical industry. In the IO

Table 7 The resource consumption coefcient of industries with larger inuence coefcient.

Machinery

and equipment

manufacturing

a ij

b ij

Metal products

industry

a ij

b ij

Chemical

Seawater

desalination

a ij

b ij

a ij

b ij

EH

CG

0.0153 0.1565 0.0528 0.2304 0.0473 0.2039 0.1968 0.3790

0.0056 0.0893 0.0358 0.1256 0.0612 0.1671 0

0.0802

Sum up 0.0209 0.2440 0.0886 0.3522 0.1084 0.3783 0.1968 0.4288

Note: EH stands for the sector of electricity, heat and water production and supply (not in- clude desalination); CG stands for coke, gas and oil processing industry; Sum up is the combination of electricity, heat and water production and supply (not include desalina- tion) and coke, gas and oil processing industry.

table, electricity, heat and water production and supply (not include de-

salination) and coke, gas and oil processing industry are the main re-

source sectors. We computed the direct and complete resource

consumption coefcients of industries which have top three inuence

coefcients. The results are seen in Table 7. It showed that one sector

with the larger inuence coefcient was not denitely meant it had

larger consumption of resources. And seawater desalination industry

was really high resource consumed industry. The larger sensitivity coef-

cient of a sector means that other sectors need more goods from the

sector and the sector has greater supply pushing or restraining effect

on other sectors. The development of sectors which have high sensitiv-

ity coefcients will help to coordinate and steady the national economy.

As we can see from Table 6, the backward linkage of seawater desalina-

tion ranked eighth (with coking, gas and petroleum processing industry

side by side) in the 18 sectors and its inuence coefcient was 1.09, its

sensitivity coefcient ranked no. 6, both of them are higher than the av-

erage level, so it had great demand pulling and supply promoting effects

on the national economy.

5.3. Investment multiplier of seawater desalination

Matrix A* and value added coefcient vector a v are showed in

Appendices 5 and 6. With Eq. (6), the investment multiplier of seawater

desalination was 1.70, which means increasing unit investment in desa-

lination would increase 1.70 units of value added. However, it ranked

fteenth in the 18 sectors. The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry,

sheries, food and beverage manufacturing and tobacco industry, tex-

tile, apparel and leather products manufacturing and other services

Table 6 Inuence coefcient and sensitivity coefcient of each sector.

Sector name

Inuence

Sensitivity

coefcient coefcient

Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and shery

0.72

0.93

Mining

0.91

2.10

Food, beverage and tobacco manufacturing industry

1.00

0.73

Textiles, apparel and leather products manufacturing

1.19

0.76

Other manufacturing

1.11

1.05

Electricity, heat and water production and supply

1.10

1.45

(not include desalination) Seawater desalination

1.09

1.14

Coke, gas and oil processing industry

1.09

1.42

Chemical

1.22

1.31

Non-metallic mineral products industry

1.16

0.86

Metal products industry

1.23

1.20

Machinery and equipment manufacturing

1.31

0.83

Building industry

1.14

0.31

Transportation and warehousing and postal services

0.90

0.95

Wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and catering 0.70 industry

0.78

Real estate, renting and business services

0.73

0.66

Financial services

0.61

1.02

Other services

0.79

0.49

Table 8

Investment multipliers of 18 sectors.

Sector

Investment

multiplier

Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and shery

3.395

Other services

3.029

Food, beverage and tobacco manufacturing

2.818

Textiles, apparel and leather products

2.757

Real estate, renting and business services

2.596

Electricity, heat and water production and supply

2.574

(not include desalination) Building industry

2.528

Transportation and warehousing and postal services

2.490

Seawater desalination

2.488

Chemical

2.479

Machinery and equipment manufacturing

2.477

Metal products industry

2.449

Other manufacturing

2.438

Non-metallic mineral products industry

2.406

Wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and catering industry

2.369

Mining

2.353

Coke, gas and oil processing industry

2.246

Financial services

2.119

Q. Zou, X. Liu / Desalination 380 (2016) 1828

Table 9

The primary input structure.

23

 

The primary industry

The secondary industry

Seawater desalination

The tertiary industry

Employees' compensation

0.951

0.353

0.212

0.404

Net taxes on production

0.002

0.235

0.322

0.125

Fixed assets depreciation

0.047

0.159

0.363

0.168

Operating surplus

0

0.253

0.103

0.303

with high investment multiplier, all these sectors are labor-intensive in-

dustries. However, for capital intensive industries, capital income was

the main primary income. If we only consider household sector endog-

enous, it will cause the investment multipliers of labor intensive sectors

generally higher than those of capital intensive industries. When we

considered both household sector and investment endogenous, seawa-

ter desalination investment multiplier was 2.488 and ranked ninth in 18

sectors (see Table 8). Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and sh-

ery sector was on the top while the nancial sector was at the bottom.

Overall, the investment multiplier of seawater desalination was rela-

tively high, which meant seawater desalination had a larger role in

boosting the national economy.

Since there is no formal compiled non-competitive inputoutput

table in China, our calculations were based on competitive inputoutput

table. At present, China still has to import some core seawater desalina-

tion equipment. For core seawater desalination stuff and equipment of

reverse osmosis seawater desalination, such as membrane module, en-

ergy recovery device, high-pressure pump and some chemical raw ma-

terials, their domestic rates were less than 50%; 90% of reverse osmosis

membrane still need to be imported from abroad. 1 The impact of equip-

ment importation on the decrease of the real investment multiplier

embodies in Eq. (6) as follows.

Supposing the kth, lth, mth, and nth sectors stand for seawater desa-

lination industry, metal products industry, machinery and equipment

manufacturing and chemical sector separately. With considering the

importation of seawater desalination equipment, there are changes in

the kth column of A*, and there is no change in a v and ΔI. According to

Twelfth Five Year Planof desalination industry development, reverse

osmosis desalination accounted for 66% by the end of 2010. Approxi-

mately 33% of input for seawater desalination from metal products in-

dustry and machinery and equipment manufacturing need to be

imported, and 29.7% (0.297 = 0.5 0.9 0.66, see Table 2, membrane

and chemicals belong to chemical sector, and they have the same pro-

portion) of input for seawater desalination from chemical sector need

to be imported. That is, a (1) mk = 0.67 a mk , a (1) nk = 0.70 a nk , where,

A (1) * = (a (1) ij ) (n + 2) × (n + 2) stands for A* with considering to separate

importation from the intermediate transactions. With Eq. (6), the in-

vestment multiplier of seawater desalination was 2.29 which is less

than 2.49 when importation was mixed with intermediate transactions.

However, if all seawater des alination equipment was

manufactured domestically, on the one hand it would provide new

job opportunities so that enhance total wages, on the other hand it

would reduce seawater desalination cost and improve operating sur-

plus. Therefore, the seawater desalination investment multiplier

would be larger than 2.488.

5.4. Intermediate input rate and distribution of desalination primary input

We dene r i as the intermediate input ratio of sector i, P i as the pri-

mary input ratio of sector i, P mi as the distribution structure of primary

input of sector i. They were calculated by Eqs. (7)(9).

r i ¼ z i =x i

p i ¼ v i =x i

p mi ¼

v

mi

v

i

ð7Þ

ð8Þ

ð9Þ

where, x i indicates total inputs of sector i; z i indicates total intermediate

inputs of sector i; V mi represents the mth kind of initial input of sector i

and V i represents total initial inputs of sector i.

The proportion of labor compensation accounted for the initial in-

puts can be seen as the proportion of labor income accounted for ele-

ments incomes. The proportion of other items, including net taxes on

production, depreciation of xed assets and operating surplus, which

together can be approximated as total capital income, accounted for

the primary input, equivalent to one minus the proportion of labor

compensation.

For each sector, total intermediate input, total input and four kinds

initial input were showed in Appendices 79. Seawater desalination in-

termediate input rate was 0.717, very close to the secondary industry

average level 0.753, which reected the high investment properties of

seawater desalination. The proportion of labor compensation accounted

for the initial input of seawater desalination was 21.2% and the propor-

tion of capital was 79.8%, which completely reected the capital-

intensive production characteristic of seawater desalination.

Table 9 showed that the proportion of net taxes on production

accounted for its capital income of seawater desalination was high and

far more than the average level of the secondary industry, but the pro-

portion of operating surplus accounted for primary input of seawater

desalination was only half of the secondary industry and 1/3 of the

tertiary industry.

6. Conclusion

The competitive partial closed inputoutput model was applied in

this paper to make the economic effects analysis of seawater desalina-

tion investment in China. The results showed that the seawater desali-

nation sector had a large investment multiplier 2.49 and ranked 9th.

Its inuence coefcient and sensitivity coefcient were 1.09 (ranked

8th in 18 sectors) and 1.14 (ranked 6th) separately, which revealed

that it had great demand pulling and supply promoting effects on the

national economy and had a strong association with other sectors. To

increase investment in seawater desalination will promote the develop-

ment of machinery and equipment manufacturing, electricity, heat

and water production, chemical industry et al., which have strong

interactions with it. If more seawater desalination equipment was

manufactured domestically, the investment multiplier of seawater de-

salination would become larger.

Acknowledgments

This research was nancially supported by the National Natural

Science Foundation of China (No. 71173210). The authors appreciates

the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions

on the paper.

24

Q. Zou, X. Liu / Desalination 380 (2016) 1828

Appendix 1. Sector name and its corresponding code

Sector

code

Sector name

Sector code

Sector name

  • 1 Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and shery

11

Metal products industry

 
  • 2 Mining

12

Machinery and equipment manufacturing

  • 3 Food, beverage and tobacco manufacturing industry

13

Building industry

  • 4 Textiles, apparel and leather products manufacturing

14

Transportation and warehousing and postal services

  • 5 Other manufacturing

15

Wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and catering industry

  • 6 Electricity, heat and water production and supply (not include desalination)

16

Real estate, renting and business services

  • 7 Seawater desalination

17

Financial services

  • 8 Coke, gas and oil processing industry

18

Other services

 
  • 9 Chemical

19

Household sector

10

Non-metallic mineral products industry

20

Investment

Note: The bold numbers in the following appendix stand for sector code.

Appendix 2. Direct consumption coefcient matrix, matrix A

123456789

  • 1 0.1330

0.0033

0.3966

0.1106

0.0769

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0319

  • 2 0.0008

0.1159

0.0031

0.0038

0.0080

0.1842

0.0000

0.6227

0.0524

  • 3 0.1028

0.0019

0.2066

0.0256

0.0060

0.0029

0.0000

0.0046

0.0161

  • 4 0.0005

0.0040

0.0018

0.4360

0.0395

0.0037

0.0000

0.0005

0.0098

  • 5 0.0029

0.0110

0.0221

0.0164

0.2858

0.0033

0.0000

0.0015

0.0226

  • 6 0.0102

0.0742

0.0114

0.0149

0.0241

0.3285

0.1968

0.0181

0.0473

  • 7 0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0002

0.0000

0.0001

0.0000

  • 8 0.0071

0.0319

0.0028

0.0040

0.0060

0.0271

0.0000

0.0604

0.0612

  • 9 0.0785

0.0397

0.0276

0.0873

0.1030

0.0048

0.1335

0.0186

0.4102

  • 10 0.0014

0.0126

0.0069

0.0019

0.0082

0.0021

0.0000

0.0034

0.0081

  • 11 0.0034

0.0484

0.0058

0.0038

0.0532

0.0076

0.0000

0.0038

0.0190

  • 12 0.0098

0.0997

0.0072

0.0151

0.0307

0.0825

0.1271

0.0177

0.0265

  • 13 0.0002

0.0009

0.0003

0.0002

0.0002

0.0004

0.0294

0.0005

0.0004

  • 14 0.0223

0.0444

0.0307

0.0242

0.0308

0.0179

0.0975

0.0221

0.0328

  • 15 0.0164

0.0213

0.0301

0.0196

0.0263

0.0110

0.0000

0.0134

0.0238

  • 16 0.0017

0.0046

0.0183

0.0162

0.0124

0.0047

0.0000

0.0048

0.0163

  • 17 0.0080

0.0134

0.0103

0.0134

0.0138

0.0400

0.1020

0.0058

0.0155

  • 18 0.0162

0.0206

0.0076

0.0068

0.0080

0.0231

0.0307

0.0035

0.0125

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

  • 1 0.0005

0.0001

0.0000

0.0044

0.0173

0.0387

0.0010

0.0000

0.0058

  • 2 0.1330

0.1843

0.0029

0.0109

0.0036

0.0004

0.0007

0.0000

0.0036

  • 3 0.0035

0.0033

0.0034

0.0040

0.0064

0.1191

0.0066

0.0028

0.0111

  • 4 0.0048

0.0028

0.0054

0.0046

0.0068

0.0092

0.0138

0.0028

0.0145

  • 5 0.0474

0.0377

0.0207

0.0224

0.0134

0.0091

0.0457

0.0212

0.0384

  • 6 0.0622

0.0528

0.0153

0.0078

0.0170

0.0166

0.0083

0.0099

0.0148

  • 7 0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

  • 8 0.0420

0.0358

0.0056

0.0129

0.1364

0.0037

0.0209

0.0063

0.0127

  • 9 0.0758

0.0195

0.0583

0.0308

0.0142

0.0082

0.0246

0.0034

0.1025

  • 10 0.1910

0.0193

0.0137

0.2264

0.0017

0.0009

0.0004

0.0002

0.0047

  • 11 0.0555

0.3363

0.1767

0.1570

0.0083

0.0010

0.0127

0.0009

0.0070

  • 12 0.0414

0.0509

0.4099

0.0761

0.1146

0.0178

0.0659

0.0138

0.0561

  • 13 0.0003

0.0003

0.0003

0.0106

0.0044

0.0024

0.0117

0.0014

0.0110

  • 14 0.0473

0.0284

0.0273

0.1077

0.0899

0.0553

0.0310

0.0575

0.0424

  • 15 0.0307

0.0231

0.0341

0.0346

0.0356

0.0246

0.0490

0.0411

0.0479

  • 16 0.0085

0.0032

0.0153

0.0042

0.0281

0.0521

0.0525

0.0929

0.0206

  • 17 0.0259

0.0131

0.0141

0.0095

0.0483

0.0270

0.0439

0.0803

0.0177

  • 18 0.0106

0.0090

0.0148

0.0157

0.0260

0.0168

0.0222

0.0158

0.0390

Appendix 3. Complete consumption coefcient matrix, matrix (b ij ) 18 × 18

123456789

  • 1 0.0383

0.2496

0.6468

0.3130

0.1938

0.0341

0.0426

0.0378

0.1252

  • 2 0.2936

0.0669

0.0866

0.1233

0.1633

0.4451

0.1953

0.8878

0.3092

  • 3 0.0283

0.1760

0.3648

0.1233

0.0653

0.0303

0.0310

0.0330

0.0759

  • 4 0.0267

0.0124

0.0210

0.7953

0.1187

0.0294

0.0258

0.0233

0.0521

  • 5 0.0588

0.0299

0.0708

0.0821

0.4493

0.0522

0.0554

0.0510

0.0975

  • 6 0.1935

0.0570

0.0774

0.1110

0.1349

0.5840

0.3790

0.1721

0.2039

  • 7 0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0003

0.0001

0.0001

0.0001

  • 8 0.0899

0.0407

0.0483

0.0660

0.0731

0.0959

0.0802

0.1380

0.1671

  • 9 0.1680

0.2077

0.2014

0.3734

0.3581

0.1261

0.3355

0.1649

0.8177

  • 10 0.0352

0.0107

0.0220

0.0190

0.0322

0.0251

0.0291

0.0315

0.0355

  • 11 0.1969

0.0461

0.0677

0.0880

0.2027

0.1610

0.1536

0.1604

0.1568

Q. Zou, X. Liu / Desalination 380 (2016) 1828

Appendix 3 (continued)

(continued)

25

123456789

  • 12 0.0790

0.3128

0.1064

0.1564

0.2022

0.3590

0.3959

0.2688

0.2340

  • 13 0.0016

0.0031

0.0025

0.0029

0.0027

0.0032

0.0329

0.0032

0.0035

  • 14 0.0622

0.1081

0.0968

0.1070

0.1113

0.0962

0.1836

0.1102

0.1275

  • 15 0.0456

0.0663

0.0795

0.0811

0.0855

0.0655

0.0602

0.0687

0.0900

  • 16 0.0201

0.0314

0.0478

0.0601

0.0495

0.0387

0.0444

0.0335

0.0598

  • 17 0.0290

0.0513

0.0443

0.0608

0.0590

0.0987

0.1627

0.0498

0.0694

  • 18 0.0337

0.0491

0.0374

0.0401

0.0403

0.0646

0.0696

0.0427

0.0527

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

  • 1 0.0567

0.0500

0.0578

0.0573

0.0599

0.1437

0.0415

0.0248

0.0579

  • 2 0.3977

0.5055

0.2436

0.2604

0.2039

0.0551

0.0840

0.0465

0.1035

  • 3 0.0425

0.0395

0.0479

0.0431

0.0391

0.1833

0.0349

0.0226

0.0462

  • 4 0.0396

0.0352

0.0443

0.0373

0.0314

0.0284

0.0427

0.0180

0.0460

  • 5 0.1350

0.1287

0.1166

0.1089

0.0599

0.0403

0.0956

0.0539

0.0896

  • 6 0.2253

0.2304

0.1565

0.1418

0.0951

0.0581

0.0576

0.0413

0.0801

  • 7 0.0001

0.0001

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

  • 8 0.1304

0.1256

0.0893

0.1050

0.1977

0.0345

0.0556

0.0337

0.0597

  • 9 0.2846

0.1857

0.2861

0.2115

0.1258

0.0834

0.1185

0.0520

0.2572

  • 10 0.2602

0.0593

0.0557

0.3080

0.0200

0.0099

0.0148

0.0066

0.0218

  • 11 0.2354

0.6584

0.5473

0.3932

0.1312

0.0457

0.0968

0.0407

0.0932

  • 12 0.2763

0.3238

0.8760

0.3248

0.3193

0.0984

0.1913

0.0879

0.1891

  • 13 0.0033

0.0032

0.0035

0.0138

0.0073

0.0046

0.0141

0.0041

0.0134

  • 14 0.1421

0.1251

0.1286

0.2053