HOHAI UNIVERSITY

School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

A research proposal
Evaluation of Urban Growth Based on LU&LC Dynamics in
Kigali city, Rwanda

NKOMEJE Felicien ()
Student ID: M2014047
Tel: +86-18305160547
E-mail: fnkomeje@gmail.com

Supervisor: Dr. Xiaoxiang ZHANG

The 05th January 2016

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Research outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Study area
Background and motivation
Research objectives
Research questions
Research relevance and rationale
Data sources and collection methods
Proposed methodology
Research structure
Work plan
Resources

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Study area
KIgali

The population of the city is

slightly above 1M on 730 sqkm
and the spread out city extends
over to several valleys and hills.

Kigali is commercial and political life. The largest city

of the country. is exhaustively composed by 3 district
and Nyarugenge stays the urban center of the city.

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Background and motivation

54% of world pop live in urban area and projected to
66% (2050) (UN-DESA, 2014).
Kigali founded in 1907 now has More than 1M people

Source: Fourth Population and Housing Census in 2012 reported in 2014

Density pop in Kigali was 1265 in 2006 and 1600/Sq

km in 2012.

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Background and motivation

Urban change is 4% in last decade (25% in 2011, 26%
in 2012, 27% in 2013 , 28 in 2014 ) and now must be
more (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS)
Rwanda has been ranked the fastest developing
country in the world in the last 25 years. China has
been ranked the second (http://www.economist.com December, 2015).
Kigali One Stop Center has issued 282 construction
permits
since
April
2010
to
Oct
2012
(http://www.independent.co.ug).
Agriculture land reduced to a considerable rate.

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Background and motivation (Contd)

Kigali master plan Vs field observation
Rwandas seek to benefit from Kigalis land and
property market; but its leaders also strive for much more
in the city(Every day manifestation-residents incomedevelopers and Government)

RS and GIS as analysis and decision making tools.

This study will generally help to understand urban
dynamics and assess the future urban growth impacts on
environment.

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Background and motivation (Contd)

k

City and agriculture

Suburb in the city fringe

City Vs Rivers
Environmental impacts

City center
Agents interactions in policy
implementation

City Vs Swamps
Gatsata residents
wary as rains
pound risk zone

Kigali master
plan
Residential in planning_Gvt

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Research objectives

The overall objective of the study is

to evaluate the spatio-temporal urban
growth process of Kigali city based on
land use/land cover change.

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Research objectives (Contd)

Specifically the research will tackle:
Describing urban growth process and LUCC
dynamics;
Identifying Kigali urban patterns and its
dynamics;
Generating LULCC models using RS/GIS
approaches ;

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Research questions

Why is Kigali city growing faster?

(driving forces => Causes and impacts assessment)
What are spatial patterns of Kigali urban
growth?...(This will also deal with where question)
How to model Kigali urban LUCC using
RS and GIS approaches?...(Geo-Simulations)

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Relevance
The research is relevant in terms of:
Understanding the evolution of Kigali urban
growth in order to help decision makers;
Improving the public policy in Kigali city (Kigali
master plan updates, etc;
Contributing as potential resource for further
related or connected researches and will serve
as model to similar case study

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Data source

Primary data
GCP (Ground control points): these GPS
points will help in geo-referencing and ground
checking features
Illustrative Photos: these are current photo
that will provide a better understanding of the
study area

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Data source (Contd)

Secondary data
Landsat images: in this research, landsat5, 7
and 8 images will be used to perform some
processing and analysis.

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Data sources (Contd)

Secondary data
DEM: this can be downloaded from different
website or produced from DTM;
Kigali master plan shp
Geoeye or quickbird image for data validation
Different hard and electronics materials will
be reviewed (more than 120 papers and books
are available now;

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Methodology

The purpose, data availability, skills capability, time

and budget are major factors to define the research
method(Keith G., No date)
However, the urban
growth
monitoring
using remotely sensed
data
will
always
performed around this
chart.

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Methodology (Contd) : Why, What and How questions?

RS data/landsat 5,7 and 8
RS Images+GCP+other data

GCP+maps
Orthophotos

Mosaic subset

Kigali boundary shp

Image preprocessing

Correct &Enhance

Supervised Classification

Spatial reclassification

Likelihood algorithm

Sieving and clumping

Topo map,
DEM,KMP shp

Modeling results
& Interpretation
Dynamics model(AM)

(Possible Ground truth)

Change detection
Thematic Accuracy calibration

Classes
determination/Patterns

Kappa

Built up, Agriculture land,

lake/River, green spaces and non
used space

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Methodology (Contd)
The research temporal scale is 1985 2015,
divided in 3 time series(1985-1995-2005-2015).
The classification will define Built up,
Agriculture land, lake/River, green spaces and
non used space.
The Kappa statistics: based on cell-by-cell
comparison of the observed map and the
predicted map (Hagen-Zanker et al, 2008).
AM Spatial dynamics model will help to
identify spatial urban change rate and patterns.

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Key terms
For a better understanding of this project, some key terms will be defined:
GIS (Geographic Information System )
RS ( Remote Sensing )

LU/LCC (Land use and land cover change)

Kigali
Rwanda

urban modeling
Urbanization prediction
Landsat images

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Research structure
This research will be arranged in 4 chapters:
Chap1. General introduction
Chap2. Understanding urban growth and LUCC
Chap3. Kigali urban growth dynamics

Chap4. Conclusion and recommendations

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

Work plan (2016)

1

10

11

12

Proposal
preparation
Proposal
defense

Gathering
resources
Experiments
work (Paper)

Chap 1
Chap 2
Chap 3
Chap 4
Final work

Jan-March 2017

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

References
1. Mirkatouli J, Hosseini A, Neshat A: Analysis of land use and land cover spatial
pattern based on Markov chains modelling. City, Territory and Architecture
2015, 2(1).
2. Carvalho Ribeiro S, Migliozzi A, Incerti G, Pinto Correia T: Placing land cover
pattern preferences on the map: Bridging methodological approaches of
landscape preference surveys and spatial pattern analysis. Landscape and Urban
Planning 2013, 114:53-68.
3. ESRI, ARCGIS spatial analyst_advanved Spat analyst using Raster and Vector,
ESRI 380 New York St., Redlands, CA 92373-8100, USA, 2001
4. John D. Bossler et al, Manual of geospatial science & technology, nd.
5. Addis getnet yesserie, spatiotemporal land use land cover changes analysis
and monitoring, Castelln, Spain, march 2009.
6. M F GOODCHILD et al,The future of GIS and spatial analysis, nd.
7. Gilbert Nduwayezu, Modeling urban growth in Kigali city, Rwanda, Enschede,
The Netherlands, February 2015.

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

References (Contd)
8. JAMES G. Watt et al, Secretary at United States Department of , Interior, A
Land Use And Land Cover Classification System For Use With Remote Sensor
Data, First Printing 1976, Conversion to Digital 2001.
9. Atiqur RAHMAN et al, An assessment of urban environmental issues using
remote sensing and gis techniques, Paris, 2009.
10. University of Freiburg, GIS & Spatial Modeling, Course notes, Class 2:
"Spatial Doing" - A discourse about analysis and modeling in a spatial context,
nd.
11. NISR, 2012 population and house hold census, Rwanda, November 2012

HOHAI UNIVERSITY
School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

THANK YOU
FOR
Cleanliness AndATTENTION
Beauty Define Kigali City