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15062013

SMARTERMODELS
FOR
SMARTSYSTEMS
Vladimiro Miranda
IEEE Fellow
DirectorINESCTEC
PresidentINESCP&DBrasil

PioneerPortugal
In2013about 25.000MWof wind generation capacity inIberia
(peak of 65.000MW)
About 5000MWareinPortugal todays peak consumption is
around 9500MW

Portugal:no.2inthe world in2012 20%of electricity from wind


morecapacity installed than Denmark (n1)

Only half of the wind


power is monitored at
transmission level

10million people
5million wind kW
2

15062013

Wind generation,load and challenges (caseof Portugal)


2.March.2010

3.March.2010

Load

Wind Power greater than load!!!


Wind

wind farms monitored at


transmission level

Wind power integration inlarge scale requires reinforced


interconnections
3

WHATISTHESMARTGRID?
The smart grid is not just moreof the same:it requires anew layer
LAYER

CHARACTERISTICS

NATURE

High level
intelligence

Localagents,parallel processing,distributed
computing

Software

Centralcontrol

EMS,DMS

Software

Information

Databases

Software

Datatransmission

Protocols

Software

Communication

Dedicated,optical fiber,gsm

Physical

Localcontrol

Sensors,relays

Physical

Physical grid

Generators,lines,transformers

Physical

15062013

Escalating the Concept Ladder


The Smart Grid should be built step by step when conditions
make it feasible,necessary and economically justified

Doyouhaveelectricalvehicles?

IntelligentGrid

Doyouhaveexplicitreliabilitycosts?

Grid islanding

Doyouhaveamedium/highdegreeofdistributedgeneration?
Doyouhaveflexiletariffsystemsormarketbasedtariffsystem?

Microgrids
Smartmetering

Doyouhavelargecostsfrommeterreadingwithhumanagents?

Telemetering
5

The microgrids

FROMTHE CLEVERINTEGRATIONTOTHESMART
SYSTEM

15062013

10YEARSOFEXPERIENCEINTHEEU
MICROGRIDS(20032006)
14partners,7EUcountries
MoreMICROGRIDS (20062008)
22partners,11EUcountries
WorkPackages
From: SteadyStateandDynamicSimulationTools
DevelopmentofLocalMicroSourceControllersandCentralController
DevelopmentofEmergencyFunctions
TelecommunicationInfrastructuresandCommunicationProtocols
To:

AlternativeControlStrategies(hierarchicalvs.distributed)
StandardizationofTechnicalandCommercialProtocolsandHardware
Evaluationofthesystemperformanceonpowersystemoperation
ImpactontheDevelopmentofElectricityInfrastructures
7

MULTIMICROGRIDS
Microgrids
LowVoltagedistribution
systemswithsmall
modulargenerationunits
providingpowerandheat
tolocalloads.

Diesel

HVNetwork
Capacitor
Bank

VSI

DFIM

Sheddable
Loads
MicroGri
d

Localcommunication
infrastructures.
Ahierarchical
managementandcontrol
system.
OperationModes:
InterconnectedMode
EmergencyMode

MicroGri
d

MicroGri
d

CHP
Hydro

15062013

WHATDOWEGETWITHMULTIGRIDS?
Added value inreliability:
afaulttolerant system
1.Islanding:the survival of network islands relying on localgeneration
reduces load curtailment
2.Black start:the recomposition of the system,in caseof major
blackout,may be made bottomup:much faster than present day top
down practice
Majordisasters (or terrorist attacks)will nolonger causeglobalelectric
power supply disruption
The dynamic definition of operating conditions and control strategies for
Grids,aswell asnew equipment specification,has been the object of
years of research in Europe.

EnergyCon 2012 Florence

Bringingrealitytotheconcept

VORA,PORTUGAL: THESMARTCITY

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15062013

THESMARTCITYINPORTUGAL
The city of voraconnected asaSmart City

33,000consumers equiped with the Energy Box


Supply points forelectric vehicles
Acommunication networkinparallel tothe power network
Distribution controllers concentrate messages

LCElectric
appliances

MC

11

ThePROSUMER:producerandconsumer
TheEnergyBoxcontrolsloadandmicrogeneration
TheEnergyBoxisthebasicelementoftheInovCityinitiativein
Portugal
Photovoltaic

EnergyBox

Controlingloads

FROMTHESMARTGRIDTOTHESMARTCITY

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15062013

INTEGRATIONWITHSMARTMETERING

13

InovCity andInovGrid:theformulaforanactualsuccess
The success of the InovGrid project has its roots in:
1. Arobust consortium ledby avisionary Power
Company
2. An alliance with the excellence of aResearch
Institute
3. Ateamwork with highly professional Industrial
partners
AND
4.The consistent support from the political power
14

15062013

SmartGridprojectsinEurope
Statistics 2012

EC (FP6+7)
7%

204Europeanprojects
111projects with significative demo;
15projects financed by the EC,189bay
state members
National
93%

SGprojects:nationalbudgets
(industry +pub.financ.):2500M
through the JRC(excl.2500M for
smartmeterrollout)
EUSGproject budget (industry +EU
financ.):184M to the JRC(within
FP6and FP7)

Cluster1Smartcustomers:
Cluster2Smartmetering:
Cluster3DERintegration:
Cluster4SmartDistribution:

92pr.
59pr.
146pr.
113pr.

Sailingahead

INESCTECLABONSMARTGRIDSAND
ELECTRICVEHICLES

16

15062013

INESCTECLab on Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles

Electric vehicles and battery charging


Researchinthe EUon driving habits
UTOPIA

Dumb charg./Double tariff

The businessmodel will have adecisive impact on the power


system,by conditioning the citizens behavior
18

15062013

Impact on reliability:LOLEand LOLF


ChronologicMonteCarloincludingconventionalgeneration
andwind,storage,conditioneddemandandEVbatteries.
Simulationin 6Europeancountries:
unlessasmartbusinessmodelisputinplace,the
integrationofEVswillhaveanegativeimpactonreliability
h/ano

/ano

LOLE

LOLF

19

Charging EVs and networkstress


NoEV

Double tariff 52%EV

Dumb charging 52%EV

Smart charging 52%EV

20

10

15062013

Intelligent V2G

INESCTECSmart charger
Bidirectional communications with the DTCor energy
aggregator

11

15062013

INESCTECLab on Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles


The lab architecture is based on aconceptualmodel foractual and future
networks

Control and communication requirements


Scenario validation through simulation
Multitechnology
Allows combining emulation and physical implementation
Integration of distinct entities and information flows technical and market
Integration of adiversity of equipament eand their APIs

WISESISEtechnology
WindIntegrationinSmartEnvironments
SolarIntegrationinSmartEnvironments

WISE
SISE

Forweakconnectionpoints:
includesaninverterallowingtheconnectionofsmallwind
generatorsupto3kWtoLowVoltagenetworks
avoidsanexcessiveraiseinvoltageattheconnectionpoint
cantrackfrequencychangesandadjustpoweroutput
droopcontrolprinciple

24

12

15062013

Toknowbetter

UNVEILINGHIDDENINFORMATION

25

DATA:THECHALLENGE
Added technologies:
Distributed generation
Distributed vehicle connection
Distributed control

Massive dataflow
Added uncertainty elements:
Renewables
Distributed decision factors (V2G,tariffs/prices)

Deterministic models replaced by probabilistic

EnergyCon2012 Florence

26

13

15062013

NETWORKOBSERVABILITY
State Estimation inthe Smart Grid context
Change of paradigm
Decentralized
Clusterized
Based on probabilistic models

REPLACEMENTOFTHECONVENTIONALCONCEPTOF
TOPOLOGICALOBSERVABILITYBY

STATISTICALOBSERVABILITY
27

UNVEILINGTHEHIDDENINFORMATION

HYPOTHESIS:thenetworktopology
informationisembeddedinthe
manifoldsupportingtheelectrical
data.

18

22

23

~
16

19

20

15

24

13

14

11

12
230 kV

10

138 kV

7
4

WeneedInformationTheorytounveil
themeaningofthisbackground
microwaveradiation

21

17

Howtoestimatethecurrentsystem
(ormultimicrogrid)topology,when
nobreakerstatussignalarrivesatthe
ControlCentre?

Breakers with status


unknown
28

14

15062013

INFORMATIONTHEORYNEEDED
By simulation:adatasetof {electric values M,topology T}
MUTUALINFORMATIONI(M,T) how much information about
Tis contained inM?
Entropy of
the joint pdf

I(M,T)=H(M)+H(T) H(M,T)

Entropy of the
topology pdf
Entropy of the
electrical data
pdf
29

ENTROPY
ENTROPY isameasureofinformationcontent
N
1
Shannon'sEntropy

HS

p k log p k
k 1

Renyi's Entropy

1
H R
log
p k
1
k 1
0, 1
N

Renyis QuadraticEntropy

H R 2 log

p 2k
k 1

Extension tocontinuous pdf

H R 2 log

fY

( z)dz

30

15

15062013

MUTUALINFORMATIONMAP
Impact of breaker 610insystem power flow,measured by
mutualinformation between each line power flows and
breaker status
High MI
Low MI

The flow insomebranches


is much moreinformative
than inother branches
Br.610
31

Information serving diagnoses

IDENTIFICATION INTOPOLOGY CELLS

32

16

15062013

CLUSTERDISTINCTIONWITHAUTOENCODERS CAM
Admit2autoencoderstrainedfor2distinctdataclustersAand
B,correspondingto2distincttopologies.
Foranewinputvector,oneoftheautoencoderswillbeintunewhile
theotherwilldisplayalargeerror.
A

Manifoldfor
TopologyA
B<< A
A

New
point

Manifoldfor
TopologyB

B
New
point

TOPOLOGYINBLACKBOXES
16

23

breaker6

Topology cell:abreaker (or switch)


with statusunknown
External electric values known

used measurements
measurements not
available

13

breaker4
breaker5
11
12
9

7
4

breaker3

From power flow simulation


2patterns forelectrical data:
>breaker open
>breaker closed

10

3
3

breaker1

Electricpattern

2autoencoderstodiagnosethe
inner state of the topology cell

23
14

No
information!
A

min

17

15062013

ACOMPETITIVE APPROACH:CAM
InputtoautoencodersselectedwithMutual
Information!
TOPOLOGYESTIMATOR
aMOSAIC oflocalautoencoders
Newpoint

min

resultsin10,000scenarios
includingnoise

Simult.
Signalreconstructions
Topologyreconstruction
miss.
signals Wrong Corr. Efficien. Wrong Corr.
Efficien.
1
5
995 99.50%
5
995
99.50%
2
10
1990 99.50%
10
990
99.00%
3
11
2989 99.63%
11
989
98.90%
4
18
3982 99.55%
17
983
98.30%
5
23
4977 99.54%
23
977
97.70%
6
27
5973 99.55%
27
973
97.30%
7
33
6967 99.53%
32
968
96.80%
8
41
7959 99.49%
39
961
96.10%
9
47
8953 99.48%
44
956
95.60%
10
51
9949 99.49%
48
952
95.20%
Total
266 54734 99.52% 256
9744
97.44%
35

TOPOLOGYINBLACKBOXES

16

used measurements
measurements not
available

Efficien.

10000
9869
10000
10000
10000
10000
9989
9933
9997
9996
99784

100.00%
98.69%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
99.89%
99.33%
99.97%
99.96%
99.78%

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

10

8
7

breaker3

13
19
21
19
13
15
11
11
13
11
Total

Hidden
layer

Corr.

0
131
0
0
0
0
11
67
3
4
216

BREAKER

Wrong

12

2
breaker1

REMOTE INFORMATION

Input,
Output

Input,
Output

Hidden
layer
10
14
12
12
12
10
12
8
8
12

breaker4
breaker5

15
19
17
17
17
15
17
13
13
17
Total

13

11

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

23
14

BREAKER

Even with remote information


only,breaker statusmay be
recovered:but
less statistical observability
less precision
LOCAL INFORMATION

23

breaker6

10
15
17
15
10
12
9
9
10
9

Wrong

Corr.

Efficien.

210
1278
0
194
2555
19
3863
1203
4461
1523
15306

9790
8722
10000
9806
7445
9981
6137
8797
5539
8477
84694

97.90%
87.22%
100.00%
98.06%
74.45%
99.81%
61.37%
87.97%
55.39%
84.77%
84.69%

No
information!

36

18

15062013

TOPOLOGYINBLACKBOXES
External signals may also unveil the hidden topology in
substationsor multimicrogrids

Splitbusy/n
L1
No
L2
splitbus
L3
L4
Tot.:noSp.bus
C1
Splitbus
C2
C3
Total:splitbus
Globalresults

Subsystem
topology
reconstruction
Wrong
Effic.
0
100.00%
0
100.00%
29
99.42%
0
100.00%
0
100.00%
29
99.42%
86
98.28%
198
96.04%
6
99.88%
279
94.42%
308
96.92%

How toimproveautoencoderaccuracy

TRAININGWITH INFORMATION THEORETIC


CRITERIA

38

19

15062013

Maximizing information flow


Aperfect autoencodermustpreserveall information that
crossesthrough from inputtooutput.
Backpropagationunder MSEdoesnot guarantee that.
The first half,trained inunsupervised mode,should yieldat the outputthe
same amount of information aspresented at the input.
Possible criteria:
MaxMutualInformation between inputand middle layer
MinMutualInformation among middle layer nodes
MaxEntropy at the middle layer
supervised

unsupervised

Maximizing information flow


INESCTECexperience:maximizing Entropy at the middle layer
is the best criterion overall.
N

Renyis Entropy

1
log
p k
1
k 1
0, 1

H R

Forcontinuous variables

H R 2 log

fY

(z)dz

Entropy is ameasure of information quantity.


Initializing weigths with values derived from PCAis also
afinestrategy [asif the neuralnetworkhad only linear
activation functions]

20

15062013

Learning macrofeatures
Experiments with deep sparse networkshave shown that
macrofeatures could be learned from data
From 10million image frames
collected randomly from youtube
videos,ahalfautoencodertrained in
unsupervised mode under an ICA
criterion learned toidentify facesand
cats!
[Quoc et al,2012]

Macrofeatures exist!
Facesbodiescats
Isthere aneuron that capturesthe
essential concept?

YES!

cat

body

21

15062013

EXAMPLE
(Only power,novoltage information)
Autoencoder
Breaker2open

Breaker2closed

Model
Singlestep
2stepME
2stepMQMI
Singlestep
2stepME
2stepMQMI

MSE
0.0046
0.0019
0.0014
0.0053
0.0015
0.0007

True Positive:br.closed,prediction:closed
False Positive: br.open,prediction:closed
False Negative:br.closed,prediction:open
True Negative:br.open,prediction:open
TP
FP
FN
TN
Singlestep
4928 104
5
4963
2stepMQMI
4915
0
14
5067

Remarkable!14 in10,000!
43

EXAMPLE
There is areason why 14answers were wrong:confusion!
The active and reactive power flows areclose tozeroinall 14
FNcases(prediction openwhen breaker closed).
B.open

Active

B.closed

B.open

B.closed

Reactive
44

22

15062013

EXAMPLE HEURISTICRULE(HR)
What if aheuristic rule is applied,defining
that if |P,Q|<Limit breaker is open?
Picking up narrow intervals forPand Q(from asubset of data)
P:{0,010446;0,011940}Q:{0,010928;0.009872}
Inthis example,forbreaker 2:

HR

TP
5048

FP
19

FN
6

TN
4927

Now,25wrong predictions in10,000 plus,the generation of False


Positives,i.e.declaring asclosed 19caseswhere the breaker was open!
The heuristic rule,often adopted inState Estimation,is inthis casealess
efficient diagnosing process
45

EXAMPLE:CAMBLIND
What if noinformation,neither on the
flows through the breaker nor on its
status,is known?

Anew setof competitive autoencoderswas trained without such inputs


(active and reactive power flows through the breaker).
Inthis example,forbreaker 2
inaCAMBlind mode:

CAMB

TP
4613

FP
285

FN
320

TN
4782

Now,605wrong predictions in10,000 approximately 6%.Avery


impressive result,inthe absence of any information!

46

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15062013

CONCLUSIONS
NoSmart Grid without smart control
NoSmart Grid without smart distributed intelligence
NoSmart Grid without smart information theory
NoSmart Grid without smart businessmodels
NoSmart Grid without smart people

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VISITPorto:the Formosacity!

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15062013

VISITPorto:the Formosacity!

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VISITPorto:the Formosacity!

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15062013

VISITPorto:the Formosacity!

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