Are public attitudes to climate change as fickle as the weather?

Much of the debate on long-term climate change can be obscured by notions drawn
from short-term weather
Public attitudes in the developed world to the reality and the causes of climate
change have tended to ebb and flow over the past few years.
A survey carried out for the Pew Research Centre in the US in 2012 concluded that
the belief that the Earth's temperature is rising was down 10% from 2006 at 67% of
responders.
Pew found 42% agreed with the statement that climate change is mostly caused by
human activity, down five points in the last six years.
You regularly see even the best science communicators tie themselves up in knots
about the relationship between weather and climate because it is just really
subtleDr Adam Corner, Cardiff University
In the UK, public opinion has fluctuated as well. A YouGov survey from last summer
indicated that 43% believed that the world is becoming warmer as a result of
human activity. That's down from previous surveys. The percentage of those who
said they were not sure about the answer increased to one in five respondents.
Researchers have tried to work out what's been affecting the figures - they looked
at events such as the so-called ClimateGate affair in 2009 and found that it had a
significant impact on public faith - a BBC poll in 2010 showed that scepticism was
on the rise as a result.
But apart from this anomaly, pollsters have struggled to explain the variation in the
figures.
Knee-jerk reaction
Now a new piece of research on opinion in the US published in the journal Climatic
Changesuggests that the public's response to the great scientific issue of the day is
often determined by the state of the weather. The study, carried out by the
University of British Columbia, looked at public and media attitudes to climate
science over the past 20 years.
They found that scepticism rose during cold snaps, but belief in global warming
increased during hot spells.
Prof Simon Donner who carried out the analysis told me that it wasn't quite as
simple as that.
"It is not just a knee-jerk reaction - 'Oh it's cold outside, global warming must be
fake', it is the accumulated experience over a few months that makes you start to
question things, and it is that accumulated experience that makes things start
appearing in the papers," he said.
Image captionPerceptions of climate change in developing countries are connected
to concerns about economic development
He argues that in the US, climate issues have become highly politicised and it is
hard to separate these political leanings from people's views on the science of
climate.
Scientists in the field have also made matters worse, according to Prof Donner.
"We go on offense during a heat wave and then we lie low the rest of the time and
don't talk about it. During a cold spell, the only time you hear from climate
scientists in the newspapers is when we are refuting things - we need to be
consistent and talk about this regardless of the weather," he said.

In the UK, a YouGov poll in January suggests that people here are almost evenly split
on the link between weather events and climate change.
Dr Adam Corner from Cardiff University, who is also a consultant with the Climate
Outreach and Information Network, says that scientists taking about individual
meteorological events is dangerous.
"You regularly see even the best science communicators tie themselves up in knots
about the relationship between weather and climate because it is just really subtle.
"It does cut both ways, it allows people to say, 'Oh it's been cold locally, that must
mean temperatures are not rising'," he said.
While it might appear on some level a little odd to have your views on climate
change shaped by weather patterns, Dr Corner says that there is some reason in
this view.
"In some senses, it is exactly what you should be basing it on over time, because
we're not meteorologists and apart from the things we get told, the things going on
around us are going to provide more of a steer," he added.