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5.1

SPECIAL

DISTRIBUTIONS

DISCRETE DISTRIBUTION

Consists of the values that a random variable can assume and the

corresponding probabilities of the values.

experiment and the corresponding probabilities of these outcomes.

performances of experiment.

For example:

a random sample of ten.

a discrete dichotomous random variable.

outcomes.

1. Each trial can have only two outcomes or outcomes that can be reduced to

two outcomes. These outcomes can be considered as either success or

failure.

2. There must be a fixed number of trials.

3. The outcomes of each trial must be independent of each other. In other

words, the outcome of one trial does not affect the outcome of another trial.

4. The probability of success is denoted by p and that of failure by q, and p +

q=1. The probabilities p and q remain constant for each trial.

corresponding outcome is considered favorable

or desirable and vice versa

The outcome to which the question refers is

called a success; the outcome to which it does

not refer is called a failure.

There are two methods to calculate the binomial probability:

a) Using Binomial Probability Distribution Formula

For a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly x successes in n trials

is given by the binomial formula:

FORMULA

Where;

n =

p =

q =

x =

n-x =

probability of success

1-p = probability of failure

number of successes in n trials

number of failures in n trials

Example 1

Compute the probabilities of X successes, using the binomial formula; n= 6, X= 3,

p=0.03

Solution:

a)

= 6C3 (0.03)3(0.97)3

= 0.0005

Example 2

A survey found that one out of five Malaysians says he or she has visited a doctor in

any given month. If 10 people are selected at random, find the probability that

exactly 3 will have visited a doctor last month.

Solution:

b) Using the Table of Binomial Probabilities

The probabilities for a binomial experiment can also be read from the table of

binomial probabilities.

The binomial probability distribution is skewed to the right if p is less than

0.5

The binomial probability distribution is skewed to the left if p is greater than

0.5

How to read the probability value from the table of binomial probabilities

Determining P (X 3) for n = 6 and p = 0.30

The table of cumulative binomial probabilities (less than)

x

P( X x) nCr p r (1 p)n r

p = 0.30

r 0

p

n

6

x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.5314

0.3771

0.2621

0.1780

0.1176

0.0754

0.0467

0.8857

0.7765

0.6554

0.5339

0.3191

0.2333

0.9842

0.9527

0.9011

0.8306

0.4202

0.7443

0.6471

0.5443

0.9987

0.9941

0.9830

0.9624

0.8826

0.8208

0.9999

0.9996

0.9984

0.9954

0.9295

0.9891

0.9777

0.9590

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9998

0.9993

0.9982

0.9959

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

n=6

X3

P (X 3) = 0.9295

If you are using cumulative binomial probabilities table; P(X x); it is easier to calculate

values from a binomial distribution.

Equally

At most

All lower values and up to that x value, i.e. P(X x) , so take

directly from the table

Less than

At least

Greater than

From x1 to x2

Between x1 and x2

Between x1 to x2

Example 3

Compute the probability of X successes using the Binomial Table where n=2, p=0.30

and X 1

Solution:

P(X 1) = 0.9100

Example 4

25% of all VCR manufactured by a large electronics company are defective. A quality

control inspector randomly selects three VCRs from the production line. What is the

probability that,

a) exactly one of these three VCRs is defective.

b) at least two of these VCRs are defective.

Solution:

EXERCISE 5.1

1. A burglar alarm system has 6 fail-safe components. The probability of each failing is

0.05. Find these probabilities:

a. Exactly 3 components will fail

b. Less than 2 components will fail

c. None will fail

2.

A survey from Teenage Research Unlimited found that 30% of teenage consumers

receive their spending money from part-time jobs. If 5 teenagers are selected at

random, find the probability that at least 3 of them will have part-time jobs.

3.

R. H Bruskin Associates Market Research found that 40% of Americans do not think

that having a college education is important to succeed in the business world. If a

random sample of five American is selected, find these probabilities.

a. Exactly two people will agree with that statement.

b. At most three people will agree with that statement

c. At least two people will agree with that statement

d. Fewer than three people will agree with that statement.

4. It was found that 60% of American victims of health care fraud are senior citizens. If

10 victims are randomly selected, find the probability that exactly 3 are senior citizens.

5. If 65% of the people in a community use the gym facilities in one year, find these

probabilities for a sample of 10 people.

a. Exactly four people used the gym facilities.

b. At least six people not used the gym facilities.

6. In a poll of 12 to 18 year old females conducted by Harris Interactive for the Gillette

Company, 40% of the young female said that they expected the US to have a female

president within 10 years. Suppose a random sample of 15 females from this age

group selected. Find the probabilities that of young female in this sample who expect

a female president within 10 years is;

a. at least 9

b. at most 5

c. 6 to 9

d. in between 4 and 8

e. less than 4

7. In a Gallup Survey, 40% of the people interviewed were unaware that maintaining a

healthy weight could reduce the risk of stroke. If 15 people are selected at random, find

the probability that at least 9 are unaware that maintaining a proper weight could reduce

the risk of stroke.

The mean, variance and standard deviation of a binomial distribution are:

FORMULA

Mean = = np

Variance = 2 = npq

Standard deviation = =

npq

where;

n = the total number of trials

p = probability of success

q = 1-p = probability of failure

Example 5

Find the mean, variance and standard deviation for each of the values of n and p when

the conditions for the binomial distribution are met.

a. n=100, p=0.75

Solution:

a. = np = 100 (0.75) = 75

= npq = 18.75 = 4.33

Example 6

The Statistical Bulletin published by Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. reported that 2% of

all American births result in twins. If a random sample of 8000 births is taken, find the

mean, variance and standard deviation of the number of births that would result in

twins.

EXERCISE 5.2

1. It has been reported that 83% of federal government employees use e-mail. If

a sample of 200 federal government employees is selected, find the mean,

variance and standard deviation of the number who use e-mail.

2. A survey found that 25% of Malaysian watch movies at the cinema. Find the

mean, variance and standard deviation of the number of individuals who watch

movies at the cinema, if a random sample of 1000 Malaysian is selected.

and when the independent variables occur over a period of time or given

area or volume.

distribution.

period.

The number of television sets sold at a department store during a given week.

A certain type of fabric made contains an average 0.5 defects per 500 yards.

5.1.2.1 Calculating Poisson Probability

a) Using Poisson Probability Distribution Formula

According to the Poisson probability distribution, the probability of x occurrences in

an interval is:

FORMULA

x

P(X)= e

x!

where;

: mean number of occurrences in that interval

e : approximately 2.7183

Find ex on your calculator

Example 7

Find probability P(X; ), using the Poisson formula for P(5;4)

Solution:

e 4 (45 )

P(X=5) =

5!

= 0.1563

Example 8

If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a 500-page manuscript, find

the probability that a given page contains exactly three errors.

Solution:

The probabilities for a Poisson distribution can also be read from the table

of Poisson probabilities.

How to read the probability value from the table of Poisson probabilities

Determining P (X 3) for = 1.5

The table of cumulative Poisson probabilities (less than)

e k

k!

k 0

x

P( X x)

= 1.5

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

0.3329

0.3012

0.2725

0.2466

0.2231

0.2019

0.1827

1

2

0.6990

0.6626

0.6268

0.5918

0.5578

0.5249

0.4932

0.9004

0.8795

0.8571

0.8335

0.7834

0.7572

3

4

0.9743

0.9662

0.9569

0.9463

0.8088

0.9344

0.9212

0.9068

0.9946

0.9923

0.9893

0.9857

0.9814

0.9763

0.9704

0.9990

0.9985

0.9978

0.9968

0.9955

0.9940

0.9920

0.9999

0.9997

0.9996

0.9994

0.9991

0.9987

0.9981

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9999

0.9998

0.9997

0.9996

X3

P (X 3) = 0.9344

If you are using a cumulative Poisson probabilities table; P(X x); it is easier to

calculate.

Example 9

Find the probability P(X; ); using Poisson table; P(10;7)

Solution:

P(X = 10) = P(X 10) P(X 9)

= 0.9015 0.8305

= 0.0710

Example 10

A sales firm receives an average of three calls per hour on its toll-free number. For any

given hour, find the probability that it will receive the following:

a)

b)

c)

d)

at most 3 calls

at least 3 calls

five or more calls

between 1 to 4 calls in 2 hours

Solution:

= 3 calls per hour

a) P(X 3) = 0.6472

b) P(X 3) = 1 P(X 2)

= 1 0.4232

= 0.5768

c) P(X 5) = 1 P(X 4)

= 1 0.8153

= 0.1847

= 6 calls in 2 hours

d) P(1< X 4) = P(X 4) P(X 1)

= 0.2851 0.0174

= 0.2677

10

EXERCISE 5.3

1. On average a household receives 2 telemarketing phone calls per week. Using the

Poisson distribution formula, find the probability that a randomly selected household

receives:

a. exactly six telemarketing phone calls during a given week.

b. less than three telemarketing phone calls in one month.

2. A washing machine at LaundryMat breaks down on average three times per month.

Using the Poisson probability distribution formula, find the probability that this

machine will have

3.

a)

b)

c)

no breakdown in 2 months

In an airport between 19:00 and 20:00 hours, the number of flights that land follows

a Poisson distribution with a mean 0.9 per five minutes interval. Find the probability

that the number of flights that land is:

a) one or less between 19:00 and 19:05 hours

b) more than three between 19:15 and 19:30 hours

4.

6.

An average of 4.8 customers visit Malaysia Savings and Loan every half hour. Find

the probability that during a given hour, the number of customer is

a)

exactly two

b)

at most 2

c)

none

d)

Sports Score Jay receives, on average, eight calls per hour requesting the latest

sports score. For any randomly selected hour, find the probability that the company

will receive

a)

b)

c)

11

5.1.2.2 Mean and Standard Deviation of the Poisson Probability

Distribution

FORMULA

Mean, =

Variance, 2 =

Standard Deviation, =

Example 11

An auto salesperson sells an average of 0.9 cars per day. Find the mean, variance

and standard deviation of cars sold per day by this salesperson.

Solution:

= = 0.9

= = 0.9 = 0.9487

2 = = 0.9

Example 12

An insurance salesperson sells an average of 1.4 policies per day.

a)

Find the probability that this salesperson will sell no insurance policy on a

certain day.

b)

Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the probability this

salesperson will sell the policies per day.

Solution:

12

5.2

CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTION

whose values are not countable.

intervals because the number of values contained in any interval is infinite.

assume is also infinite.

amount of milk in a gallon, weights of babies, prices of houses.

characteristics:

1. The probability that X assumes a value in any interval lies in the range 0 to 1.

2. The total probability of all the (mutually exclusive) intervals within which X can

assume a value is 1.0.

13

5.2.1 Normal Distribution

The normal distribution is the most important and most commonly used

among all of probability distributions.

either exactly or approximately.

(symmetric) curve.

illustrated:

a) The total area under the curve is 1.0.

mean.

c)

14

c)

The two tails of the curve extend indefinitely which means that the curve never

touch x- axis.

The value under the curve indicates the proportion of area in each section.

(example figure 2; pg 13)

The units for the standard normal distribution curve are denoted by z and

are called the z values or z scores.

particular x value is away from the mean.

practical application problems such as:

inches and 5 feet 7 inches.

15

The standard normal distribution table lists the areas under the

standard normal curve to the left of z-values from 3.49 to 3.49.

Although the z-values on the left side of the mean are negative, the area

under the curve is always positive.

How to read the probability value from the standard normal distribution table

Determine the area under the standard normal curve to the left of z = 1.95

16

Note:

z = 1.95 can be interpreted as area to the left of 1.95.

P(z < 1.95) = 0.9744 or P(z < 1.95) = P(z 1.95) = 0.9744

The probability that a continuous random variable assumes a single value is

zero. Therefore, P(z = 1.95) = 0.

Example 13

Find the area under the standard normal curve:

a) To the left of z = 1.56

b) To the right of z = -1.32

c) From z = 0.85 to z = 1.95

Solution:

a) To the left of z = 1.56

P(z < 1.56) = 0.9406

0

1.56

P(z > -1.32) = 1 P(z < -1.32)

= 1 - 0.0934

= 0.9066

-1.32

P(0.85 z 1.95)

= P(z 1.95) P(z 0.85)

= 0.9744 0.8023

= 0.1721

Chapter 5: Special Distribution

0.85

1.95

17

EXERCISE 5.4

Find the area under the standard normal curve:

c) Between z = -2.15 and z=1.67

b) To the right of z = 2.45

B.

corresponding z value by using the formula:

FORMULA

z=

Where and are the mean and standard deviation of the normal distribution of

X, respectively.

Remember!

The z value for the mean of a normal

distribution is always zero.

18

Example 14

Let X be a continuous random variable that has a normal distribution with a mean of 50

and a standard deviation of 10. Convert the following X values to z values.

a)

55

b)

35

Solution:

For the given normal distribution, = 50 and =10

a) The z value for X = 55 is computed as follows:

b)

z = 35 50 =

10

Example 15

Let X be a continuous random variable that is normally distributed with a mean of 65 and

a standard deviation of 15. Find the probability that X assumes a value:

a)

less than 43

b)

greater than 74

c)

between 56 and 71

Solution:

19

EXERCISE 5.5

1. Let X denote the time taken to run a road race. Suppose X is approximately normally

distributed with a mean of 190 minutes and a standard deviation of 21 minutes. If

one runner is selected at random, what is the probability that this runner will

complete this road race:

a)

b)

2.

The mean number of hours a student spends on the computer is 3.1 hours per day.

Assuming a standard deviation of 0.5 hour, find the percentage of students who

spend less than 3.5 hours on the computer. Assume the variable is normally

distributed.

3.

approximately normal distributed with a mean of 55 and a standard deviation of 10:

a)

the number of grades with distinction.

b)

between 45 and 65.

5.3

INTRODUCTION TO t- DISTRIBUTION

However, the t distribution has larger area in the tails and smaller area in

the centre than does the standardized normal distribution.

Because the value of is uncertain, the values of t that are observed will be

more variable than for z.

Standard normal

t distribution for 5

degrees of freedom

20

approaches the standardized normal distribution until the two are virtually

identical.

gets larger.

that there is little difference between the t and Z distributions.

For this reason, most statisticians use z instead of t when the sample size is

greater than 120.

EXERCISE 5.6

1. 10 % of the bulbs produced by a factory are defective. A sample of 5 bulbs is

selected randomly and tested for defect. Find the probability that

a) two bulbs are defective

b) at least one bulb is defective

2. In a university, 20 percent of the students fail statistics test. If 20 students from the

university are interviewed, what is the probability of getting:

a) less than 3 students who fail the test

b) more than 3 students who fail the test

c) exactly 4 students who fail the test

3. A financial institution in Kuala Lumpur has a job vacancy for a risk analyst and each

applicant must seat for a written test. Based on the management experience, only

40% of the applicants pass the test and qualify for the interview session. There are

20 applicants who have applied for the jobs. Find the probability that there are more

than 50% of the applicants will pass the test.

4. An Elementary Statistics class has 75 students. If there is a 12% absentee rate per

lesson, find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the number of students

who will be absent from each class.

Tutorial

21

5. Before an umbrella leaves the factory, it is subjected to a quality control check. The

probability that an umbrella contains zero, one or two defects is 0.88, 0.08 and 0.04

respectively. In a sample of 16 umbrellas, find the probability that:

a)

b)

c)

6. En. Rostam is a credit officer at the Trust Bank. Based on his experience, he

estimates that on average he will receive 3 loan applications in a week. Find the

probability that he receives:

a)

b)

c)

7. A bookstore owner examines 5 books from each lot of 25 to check for missing pages.

If he finds at least two books with missing pages, the entire lot is returned back to the

supplier. If indeed, there are five books with missing pages, find the probability that

the lot will be returned.

8. The numbers of customers who enter shop ABC are independent of one another and

at random intervals follow a Poisson distribution with an average rate of 42

customers per hour. Find the probability that:

a) no customer enters the shop during a particular 1 minute interval

b) at least 4 customers enter the shop during a particular 5-minute interval

c) between 2 and 6 customers enter the shop during a particular 10-minute

interval.

9. A research has been conducted by Students Affair Department of Menara University

about the PNGK obtained by final semester students for 2002/2203 session. The

outcome of the research showed that the PNGK of the students are normally

distributed with a mean 2.80 and a standard deviation 0.40. If one final semester

student has been selected at random;

a) Calculate the probability that the student gets PNGK from 2.00 until 3.00

b) Find the percentage that the student gets PNGK of less than 2.00

c) Calculate the probability that the student gets PNGK of at least 3.00

d) Calculate the probability that the student gets PNGK of more than 3.70

(first class honors). If the university has 1000 final semester students, find

the number of first class honors students.

Tutorial

22

10.

Encik Ahmad works as a lawyer at his own law firm which is situated at Bandar

Kenangan. He drives to his work place every day. The estimated time taken to his

work place is normally distributed with a mean of 24 minutes and a standard

deviation of 3.8 minutes.

a) Calculate the probability of estimated time taken of at least half and hour.

b) Find the probability of estimated time taken from 20 minutes until 25

minutes

c) Find the percentage that the estimated time taken of more than 25

minutes.

d) Find the probability of estimated time taken of less than 10 minutes.

11. Assume X is the time for a runner to finish his 2 km run. Given X is normally

distributed with a mean of 15 minutes and a standard deviation of 3 minutes. If one

runner is selected at random, find the probability that the runner can finish his 2km

run in;

a) less than 13 minutes

b) not more than 16 minutes

c) within 14 minutes and 17 minutes.

12.

Given the systolic blood pressure for the obesity group has a mean 132 mmHg

and a standard deviation 8 mmHg. Assuming the variable normally distributed,

find the probability an obese person that has been selected at random have a

systolic blood pressure:

a) More than 130 mmHg.

b) Less than 140 mmHg.

c) Between 131 mmHg and 136 mmHg.

13.

The number of passenger for domestic flight from Alor Setar to Kuala Lumpur is

normally distributed with mean 80 and standard deviation 12. If one domestic

flight is selected at random, find the probability the flight carries:

a) less than 90 passengers

b) at least 75 passengers

c) between 79 to 95 passengers

Tutorial

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