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SQQS1013 Elementary Statistics

5.1

SPECIAL
DISTRIBUTIONS

DISCRETE DISTRIBUTION

Consists of the values that a random variable can assume and the
corresponding probabilities of the values.

The probabilities are determined theoretically or by observation.

5.1.1 Binomial Probability Distribution

Binomial Probability Distribution concerns the outcomes of a binomial


experiment and the corresponding probabilities of these outcomes.

It is applied to find the probability that an outcome will occur x times in n


performances of experiment.

For example:

The probability of a defective laptop manufactured at a firm is 0.05, in


a random sample of ten.

The probability of 8 packages not arriving at its destination.

To apply the binomial probability distribution, the random variable x must be


a discrete dichotomous random variable.

Each repetition of the experiment must result in one of two possible


outcomes.

Conditional of a Binomial Experiment


1. Each trial can have only two outcomes or outcomes that can be reduced to
two outcomes. These outcomes can be considered as either success or
failure.
2. There must be a fixed number of trials.
3. The outcomes of each trial must be independent of each other. In other
words, the outcome of one trial does not affect the outcome of another trial.
4. The probability of success is denoted by p and that of failure by q, and p +
q=1. The probabilities p and q remain constant for each trial.

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The success does not mean that the


corresponding outcome is considered favorable
or desirable and vice versa
The outcome to which the question refers is
called a success; the outcome to which it does
not refer is called a failure.

5.1.1.1 Calculating Binomial Probability


There are two methods to calculate the binomial probability:
a) Using Binomial Probability Distribution Formula
For a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly x successes in n trials
is given by the binomial formula:
FORMULA

P(x) = nCx px qn-x

Where;
n =
p =
q =
x =
n-x =

the total number of trials


probability of success
1-p = probability of failure
number of successes in n trials
number of failures in n trials

Example 1
Compute the probabilities of X successes, using the binomial formula; n= 6, X= 3,
p=0.03

Solution:
a)

P(x=3) = 6C3 (0.03)3(1-0.03)6-3


= 6C3 (0.03)3(0.97)3
= 0.0005

Example 2
A survey found that one out of five Malaysians says he or she has visited a doctor in
any given month. If 10 people are selected at random, find the probability that
exactly 3 will have visited a doctor last month.

Solution:

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b) Using the Table of Binomial Probabilities

The probabilities for a binomial experiment can also be read from the table of
binomial probabilities.

For any number of trials n:

The binomial probability distribution is symmetric if p = 0.5


The binomial probability distribution is skewed to the right if p is less than
0.5
The binomial probability distribution is skewed to the left if p is greater than
0.5

How to read the probability value from the table of binomial probabilities
Determining P (X 3) for n = 6 and p = 0.30
The table of cumulative binomial probabilities (less than)
x

P( X x) nCr p r (1 p)n r

p = 0.30

r 0

p
n
6

x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.5314

0.3771

0.2621

0.1780

0.1176

0.0754

0.0467

0.8857

0.7765

0.6554

0.5339

0.3191

0.2333

0.9842

0.9527

0.9011

0.8306

0.4202
0.7443

0.6471

0.5443

0.9987

0.9941

0.9830

0.9624

0.8826

0.8208

0.9999

0.9996

0.9984

0.9954

0.9295
0.9891

0.9777

0.9590

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9998

0.9993

0.9982

0.9959

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

1.0000

n=6
X3

P (X 3) = 0.9295

If you are using cumulative binomial probabilities table; P(X x); it is easier to calculate
values from a binomial distribution.

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Equally
At most

P(X = x), exactly that value, easy to use Poisson formula


All lower values and up to that x value, i.e. P(X x) , so take
directly from the table

Less than

P(X < x) , that value x (and larger) is NOT included

At least

P(X x), that value of x onwards

Greater than

P(X > x), that value x (and smaller) is NOT included

From x1 to x2

P(x1 X x2), include both x1 and x2

Between x1 and x2

P(x1<X<x2), do not include both x1 and x2

Between x1 to x2

P(x1< X x2), exclude x1 but include x2

Example 3
Compute the probability of X successes using the Binomial Table where n=2, p=0.30
and X 1

Solution:
P(X 1) = 0.9100

Example 4
25% of all VCR manufactured by a large electronics company are defective. A quality
control inspector randomly selects three VCRs from the production line. What is the
probability that,
a) exactly one of these three VCRs is defective.
b) at least two of these VCRs are defective.

Solution:

Chapter 5: Special Distribution

SQQS1013 Elementary Statistics

EXERCISE 5.1
1. A burglar alarm system has 6 fail-safe components. The probability of each failing is
0.05. Find these probabilities:
a. Exactly 3 components will fail
b. Less than 2 components will fail
c. None will fail
2.

A survey from Teenage Research Unlimited found that 30% of teenage consumers
receive their spending money from part-time jobs. If 5 teenagers are selected at
random, find the probability that at least 3 of them will have part-time jobs.

3.

R. H Bruskin Associates Market Research found that 40% of Americans do not think
that having a college education is important to succeed in the business world. If a
random sample of five American is selected, find these probabilities.
a. Exactly two people will agree with that statement.
b. At most three people will agree with that statement
c. At least two people will agree with that statement
d. Fewer than three people will agree with that statement.

4. It was found that 60% of American victims of health care fraud are senior citizens. If
10 victims are randomly selected, find the probability that exactly 3 are senior citizens.
5. If 65% of the people in a community use the gym facilities in one year, find these
probabilities for a sample of 10 people.
a. Exactly four people used the gym facilities.
b. At least six people not used the gym facilities.
6. In a poll of 12 to 18 year old females conducted by Harris Interactive for the Gillette
Company, 40% of the young female said that they expected the US to have a female
president within 10 years. Suppose a random sample of 15 females from this age
group selected. Find the probabilities that of young female in this sample who expect
a female president within 10 years is;
a. at least 9
b. at most 5
c. 6 to 9
d. in between 4 and 8
e. less than 4

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7. In a Gallup Survey, 40% of the people interviewed were unaware that maintaining a
healthy weight could reduce the risk of stroke. If 15 people are selected at random, find
the probability that at least 9 are unaware that maintaining a proper weight could reduce
the risk of stroke.

5.1.1.2 Mean and Standard Deviation of the Binomial Probability Distribution


The mean, variance and standard deviation of a binomial distribution are:
FORMULA

Mean = = np
Variance = 2 = npq
Standard deviation = =

npq

where;
n = the total number of trials
p = probability of success
q = 1-p = probability of failure

Example 5
Find the mean, variance and standard deviation for each of the values of n and p when
the conditions for the binomial distribution are met.
a. n=100, p=0.75

Solution:
a. = np = 100 (0.75) = 75

2 = npq = 100 (0.75) (0.25) = 18.75


= npq = 18.75 = 4.33

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Example 6
The Statistical Bulletin published by Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. reported that 2% of
all American births result in twins. If a random sample of 8000 births is taken, find the
mean, variance and standard deviation of the number of births that would result in
twins.

EXERCISE 5.2
1. It has been reported that 83% of federal government employees use e-mail. If
a sample of 200 federal government employees is selected, find the mean,
variance and standard deviation of the number who use e-mail.
2. A survey found that 25% of Malaysian watch movies at the cinema. Find the
mean, variance and standard deviation of the number of individuals who watch
movies at the cinema, if a random sample of 1000 Malaysian is selected.

5.1.2 Poisson Distribution

Named after the French mathematician Simeon D. Poisson.

A discrete probability distribution that is useful when n is large and p is small


and when the independent variables occur over a period of time or given
area or volume.

Conditions to apply the Poisson Probability Distribution

X is a discrete random variable

The occurrences are random

The occurrences are independent

The following examples show the application of the Poisson probability


distribution.

The number of accidents that occur on a highway given during a one-week


period.

The number of customers entering a grocery store during a one-hour interval.

The number of television sets sold at a department store during a given week.

The number of typing errors per page.

A certain type of fabric made contains an average 0.5 defects per 500 yards.

Chapter 5: Special Distribution

SQQS1013 Elementary Statistics


5.1.2.1 Calculating Poisson Probability
a) Using Poisson Probability Distribution Formula
According to the Poisson probability distribution, the probability of x occurrences in
an interval is:
FORMULA

x
P(X)= e

x!

where;
: mean number of occurrences in that interval
e : approximately 2.7183
Find ex on your calculator

Example 7
Find probability P(X; ), using the Poisson formula for P(5;4)

Solution:

e 4 (45 )
P(X=5) =
5!
= 0.1563

Example 8
If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a 500-page manuscript, find
the probability that a given page contains exactly three errors.

Solution:

Chapter 5: Special Distribution

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b) Using the Table of Poisson Probabilities

The probabilities for a Poisson distribution can also be read from the table
of Poisson probabilities.

How to read the probability value from the table of Poisson probabilities
Determining P (X 3) for = 1.5
The table of cumulative Poisson probabilities (less than)

e k
k!
k 0
x

P( X x)

= 1.5

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

0.3329

0.3012

0.2725

0.2466

0.2231

0.2019

0.1827

1
2

0.6990

0.6626

0.6268

0.5918

0.5578

0.5249

0.4932

0.9004

0.8795

0.8571

0.8335

0.7834

0.7572

3
4

0.9743

0.9662

0.9569

0.9463

0.8088
0.9344

0.9212

0.9068

0.9946

0.9923

0.9893

0.9857

0.9814

0.9763

0.9704

0.9990

0.9985

0.9978

0.9968

0.9955

0.9940

0.9920

0.9999

0.9997

0.9996

0.9994

0.9991

0.9987

0.9981

1.0000

1.0000

0.9999

0.9999

0.9998

0.9997

0.9996

X3

P (X 3) = 0.9344

If you are using a cumulative Poisson probabilities table; P(X x); it is easier to
calculate.

Example 9
Find the probability P(X; ); using Poisson table; P(10;7)

Solution:
P(X = 10) = P(X 10) P(X 9)
= 0.9015 0.8305
= 0.0710

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Example 10
A sales firm receives an average of three calls per hour on its toll-free number. For any
given hour, find the probability that it will receive the following:
a)
b)
c)
d)

at most 3 calls
at least 3 calls
five or more calls
between 1 to 4 calls in 2 hours

Solution:
= 3 calls per hour
a) P(X 3) = 0.6472

b) P(X 3) = 1 P(X 2)
= 1 0.4232
= 0.5768

c) P(X 5) = 1 P(X 4)
= 1 0.8153
= 0.1847
= 6 calls in 2 hours
d) P(1< X 4) = P(X 4) P(X 1)
= 0.2851 0.0174
= 0.2677

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EXERCISE 5.3
1. On average a household receives 2 telemarketing phone calls per week. Using the
Poisson distribution formula, find the probability that a randomly selected household
receives:
a. exactly six telemarketing phone calls during a given week.
b. less than three telemarketing phone calls in one month.
2. A washing machine at LaundryMat breaks down on average three times per month.
Using the Poisson probability distribution formula, find the probability that this
machine will have

3.

a)

exactly two breakdowns per month

b)

at most one breakdown per month

c)

no breakdown in 2 months

In an airport between 19:00 and 20:00 hours, the number of flights that land follows
a Poisson distribution with a mean 0.9 per five minutes interval. Find the probability
that the number of flights that land is:
a) one or less between 19:00 and 19:05 hours
b) more than three between 19:15 and 19:30 hours

4.

6.

An average of 4.8 customers visit Malaysia Savings and Loan every half hour. Find
the probability that during a given hour, the number of customer is
a)

exactly two

b)

at most 2

c)

none

d)

more than 5 in one hour

Sports Score Jay receives, on average, eight calls per hour requesting the latest
sports score. For any randomly selected hour, find the probability that the company
will receive
a)

at least eight calls

b)

three or more calls

c)

at most seven calls.

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5.1.2.2 Mean and Standard Deviation of the Poisson Probability
Distribution
FORMULA

Mean, =
Variance, 2 =
Standard Deviation, =

Example 11
An auto salesperson sells an average of 0.9 cars per day. Find the mean, variance
and standard deviation of cars sold per day by this salesperson.

Solution:

= = 0.9
= = 0.9 = 0.9487

2 = = 0.9

Example 12
An insurance salesperson sells an average of 1.4 policies per day.
a)

Find the probability that this salesperson will sell no insurance policy on a
certain day.

b)

Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the probability this
salesperson will sell the policies per day.

Solution:

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5.2

CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTION

In Chapter 4, we defined a continuous random variable as a random variable


whose values are not countable.

A continuous random variable can assume any value over an interval or


intervals because the number of values contained in any interval is infinite.

The possible number of values that a continuous random variable can


assume is also infinite.

Example of continuous random variables:

The life of battery, heights of people, time taken to complete an examination,


amount of milk in a gallon, weights of babies, prices of houses.

The probability distribution of continuous random variable has two


characteristics:
1. The probability that X assumes a value in any interval lies in the range 0 to 1.

Figure 1: Area under a curve between two points.

2. The total probability of all the (mutually exclusive) intervals within which X can
assume a value is 1.0.

Figure 2: Total area under a probability distribution .

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5.2.1 Normal Distribution

The normal distribution is the most important and most commonly used
among all of probability distributions.

A large number of phenomena in the real world are normally distributed


either exactly or approximately.

The normal probability distribution or the normal curve is a bell-shaped


(symmetric) curve.

Its mean is denoted by while its standard deviation is denoted by .

Figure 3: Normal distribution with mean; and standard deviation; .

Normal probability distributions give bell-shaped curves which can be


illustrated:
a) The total area under the curve is 1.0.

b) The curve is symmetric about the


mean.

c)

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c)

The two tails of the curve extend indefinitely which means that the curve never
touch x- axis.

5.2.1.1 The Standard Normal Distribution

Is a normal distribution with = 0 and = 1.

The value under the curve indicates the proportion of area in each section.
(example figure 2; pg 13)

The units for the standard normal distribution curve are denoted by z and
are called the z values or z scores.

The z value or z score is actually the number of standard deviation that a


particular x value is away from the mean.

The area under a standard normal distribution curve is used to solve


practical application problems such as:

finding the percentage of adult woman whose height is between 5 feet 4


inches and 5 feet 7 inches.

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A. Finding areas under the standard normal distribution curve

The standard normal distribution table lists the areas under the
standard normal curve to the left of z-values from 3.49 to 3.49.

Although the z-values on the left side of the mean are negative, the area
under the curve is always positive.

How to read the probability value from the standard normal distribution table
Determine the area under the standard normal curve to the left of z = 1.95

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Note:
z = 1.95 can be interpreted as area to the left of 1.95.
P(z < 1.95) = 0.9744 or P(z < 1.95) = P(z 1.95) = 0.9744
The probability that a continuous random variable assumes a single value is
zero. Therefore, P(z = 1.95) = 0.

Example 13
Find the area under the standard normal curve:
a) To the left of z = 1.56
b) To the right of z = -1.32
c) From z = 0.85 to z = 1.95
Solution:
a) To the left of z = 1.56
P(z < 1.56) = 0.9406
0

1.56

b) To the right of z = -1.32


P(z > -1.32) = 1 P(z < -1.32)
= 1 - 0.0934
= 0.9066
-1.32

c) From z = 0.85 to z = 1.95


P(0.85 z 1.95)
= P(z 1.95) P(z 0.85)
= 0.9744 0.8023
= 0.1721
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0.85

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EXERCISE 5.4
Find the area under the standard normal curve:
c) Between z = -2.15 and z=1.67

a) To the left of z = -2.87


b) To the right of z = 2.45

B.

Converting an x value to a z value

For a normal variable X, a particular value of X can be converted to its


corresponding z value by using the formula:
FORMULA

z=

Where and are the mean and standard deviation of the normal distribution of
X, respectively.

Remember!
The z value for the mean of a normal
distribution is always zero.

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Example 14
Let X be a continuous random variable that has a normal distribution with a mean of 50
and a standard deviation of 10. Convert the following X values to z values.
a)

55

b)

35

Solution:
For the given normal distribution, = 50 and =10
a) The z value for X = 55 is computed as follows:

b)

z = 35 50 =
10

Example 15
Let X be a continuous random variable that is normally distributed with a mean of 65 and
a standard deviation of 15. Find the probability that X assumes a value:
a)

less than 43

b)

greater than 74

c)

between 56 and 71

Solution:

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EXERCISE 5.5
1. Let X denote the time taken to run a road race. Suppose X is approximately normally
distributed with a mean of 190 minutes and a standard deviation of 21 minutes. If
one runner is selected at random, what is the probability that this runner will
complete this road race:
a)

in less than 150 minutes?

b)

in 205 to 245 minutes?

2.

The mean number of hours a student spends on the computer is 3.1 hours per day.
Assuming a standard deviation of 0.5 hour, find the percentage of students who
spend less than 3.5 hours on the computer. Assume the variable is normally
distributed.

3.

The scores of 6000 candidates in a certain examination are found to be


approximately normal distributed with a mean of 55 and a standard deviation of 10:
a)

If a score of 75 or more is required for passing with a distinction, estimate


the number of grades with distinction.

b)

Calculate the probability that a candidate selected at random has a score


between 45 and 65.

5.3

INTRODUCTION TO t- DISTRIBUTION

The t distribution is very similar to the standardized normal distribution.

Both distributions are bell-shaped and symmetrical.

However, the t distribution has larger area in the tails and smaller area in
the centre than does the standardized normal distribution.

This is because is unknown and s is used to estimate it.

Because the value of is uncertain, the values of t that are observed will be
more variable than for z.
Standard normal
t distribution for 5
degrees of freedom

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As the number of degrees of freedom increases, the t distribution gradually


approaches the standardized normal distribution until the two are virtually
identical.

This happens because s becomes a better estimate of as the sample size


gets larger.

With a sample size of about 120 or more, s estimates precisely enough


that there is little difference between the t and Z distributions.

For this reason, most statisticians use z instead of t when the sample size is
greater than 120.

EXERCISE 5.6
1. 10 % of the bulbs produced by a factory are defective. A sample of 5 bulbs is
selected randomly and tested for defect. Find the probability that
a) two bulbs are defective
b) at least one bulb is defective
2. In a university, 20 percent of the students fail statistics test. If 20 students from the
university are interviewed, what is the probability of getting:
a) less than 3 students who fail the test
b) more than 3 students who fail the test
c) exactly 4 students who fail the test
3. A financial institution in Kuala Lumpur has a job vacancy for a risk analyst and each
applicant must seat for a written test. Based on the management experience, only
40% of the applicants pass the test and qualify for the interview session. There are
20 applicants who have applied for the jobs. Find the probability that there are more
than 50% of the applicants will pass the test.
4. An Elementary Statistics class has 75 students. If there is a 12% absentee rate per
lesson, find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the number of students
who will be absent from each class.

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5. Before an umbrella leaves the factory, it is subjected to a quality control check. The
probability that an umbrella contains zero, one or two defects is 0.88, 0.08 and 0.04
respectively. In a sample of 16 umbrellas, find the probability that:
a)

9 will have no defect

b)

4 will have one defect

c)

3 will have two defect

6. En. Rostam is a credit officer at the Trust Bank. Based on his experience, he
estimates that on average he will receive 3 loan applications in a week. Find the
probability that he receives:
a)

no loan application in a week

b)

2 until 5 loan applications in a week

c)

at least 5 loan applications in 14 days.

7. A bookstore owner examines 5 books from each lot of 25 to check for missing pages.
If he finds at least two books with missing pages, the entire lot is returned back to the
supplier. If indeed, there are five books with missing pages, find the probability that
the lot will be returned.
8. The numbers of customers who enter shop ABC are independent of one another and
at random intervals follow a Poisson distribution with an average rate of 42
customers per hour. Find the probability that:
a) no customer enters the shop during a particular 1 minute interval
b) at least 4 customers enter the shop during a particular 5-minute interval
c) between 2 and 6 customers enter the shop during a particular 10-minute
interval.
9. A research has been conducted by Students Affair Department of Menara University
about the PNGK obtained by final semester students for 2002/2203 session. The
outcome of the research showed that the PNGK of the students are normally
distributed with a mean 2.80 and a standard deviation 0.40. If one final semester
student has been selected at random;
a) Calculate the probability that the student gets PNGK from 2.00 until 3.00
b) Find the percentage that the student gets PNGK of less than 2.00
c) Calculate the probability that the student gets PNGK of at least 3.00
d) Calculate the probability that the student gets PNGK of more than 3.70
(first class honors). If the university has 1000 final semester students, find
the number of first class honors students.

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10.

Encik Ahmad works as a lawyer at his own law firm which is situated at Bandar
Kenangan. He drives to his work place every day. The estimated time taken to his
work place is normally distributed with a mean of 24 minutes and a standard
deviation of 3.8 minutes.
a) Calculate the probability of estimated time taken of at least half and hour.
b) Find the probability of estimated time taken from 20 minutes until 25
minutes
c) Find the percentage that the estimated time taken of more than 25
minutes.
d) Find the probability of estimated time taken of less than 10 minutes.

11. Assume X is the time for a runner to finish his 2 km run. Given X is normally
distributed with a mean of 15 minutes and a standard deviation of 3 minutes. If one
runner is selected at random, find the probability that the runner can finish his 2km
run in;
a) less than 13 minutes
b) not more than 16 minutes
c) within 14 minutes and 17 minutes.
12.

Given the systolic blood pressure for the obesity group has a mean 132 mmHg
and a standard deviation 8 mmHg. Assuming the variable normally distributed,
find the probability an obese person that has been selected at random have a
systolic blood pressure:
a) More than 130 mmHg.
b) Less than 140 mmHg.
c) Between 131 mmHg and 136 mmHg.

13.

The number of passenger for domestic flight from Alor Setar to Kuala Lumpur is
normally distributed with mean 80 and standard deviation 12. If one domestic
flight is selected at random, find the probability the flight carries:
a) less than 90 passengers
b) at least 75 passengers
c) between 79 to 95 passengers

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