Vol.

: 286
21st March,2016

Index
Market View

1 Market View:

Company Update

Around the
Economy

The market has conquered all important level

of 7600 Will it sustain?

Since the announcement of budget the negativity in the market has

subsided and the change in the mood of FII has taken place. Gradually the

Knowledge Corner

3 market has moved from 6825 on the day of budget to 7600 Nifty level. During
this rally banking sector has participated amidst all negative talks regarding

Mutual Fund

4 the PSU Banks. It seems that the majority of the pains for PSU Banks have

Commodity Corner

Forex Corner

6 interest rate providing credit growth opportunity to the banks in future. Yes-

already taken place and the balance sheets of banks have been cleaned. The
movement by The Government and RBI is opening the gates for decrease in

terday The Government has reduced the interest rates in almost all govern-

Report Card

7 ment schemes giving signal to RBI for taking action. Any remarkable fall in

Short Term Call Status

Editor & Contributor

Margi Shah

interest rate will be positive in general for the corporate and in particular to
auto sector, housing finance companies and banks. As we are discussing
since last one month, the negative

market and a trend is set for the market to remain ranged bound with upward
bias.

Special Contributors
Ashesh Trivedi
Aditya Nahar

sentiment has subsided remarkably in the

We

have

seen

stock

specific

action

rather

than

aggressive

Nifty

movement. The triggers for break out in Nifty may be provided by aggressive
government actions in the form of GST rollout. Some concerns of corporate
world

has

been

amendments in

addressed

by The

Government

by proposing

necessary

Companies Bill and introduced in Lok Sabha as Companies

(Amendment) Bill 2016.

All

this

movement

by

The

Government

coupled

with

RBI

and

changing

atmosphere in China and Europe is setting a platform for the market to have
upward

bias.

The

commentary given

concluded meeting on 16

For suggestions, feedback

and queries
jstreet@jhaveritrade.com

ready to

delay the

rate

by The

Federal

Reserve

during

the

March is giving signal to the world that The Fed is

hike

and to help

the

world market to stabilize.

Technically the m arket with strong support of 7400 has conquered 7600 and if
it remains above 7600 for couple of days, this break out will be a significant
one for the market.

Kamal Jhaveri
MD- Jhaveri Securities

-1-

th

Vol.: 286
21st March,2016

Company Update : Jamna Auto Industries Ltd.

Company Basics
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
EQUITY (` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP (` in Cr.)

520051
JAMNAAUTO
37.74
1048.31

Financial Basics
FV (`)
EPS (`) (TTM)
P/E (x) (TTM)

5.00
7.41
17.79

P/BV (x) (TTM)

BETA
RONW (%)

5.33
1.3666
11.63%

Share Holding Pattern

Holder's Name
Foreign
Institutions
Promoters
Govt. Holding
Public & Others
Non Promoter

% Holding
0.52
2.89
46.45
0.00
50.14
0.00

Valuation : JAMNAAUTO is trading at `131 . We recommend Buy with target price of `181 , valuing stocks
20xFY18E EPS of `9.07.The stock currently trades at 17.60x of FY16E, 16.12x of FY17E and 14.66x of FY18E.
Company Overview

Jamna Auto Industries Limited is the largest manufacturer of Tapered Leaf and Parabolic Springs for Commercial
Vehicles (CVs) in India. It has been a trusted and preferred supplier of Leaf and Parabolic Springs to all major CV
manufacturers. JAI is the only Indian company to provide a complete range of automotive suspension solution for
commercial vehicles.
Investment rational
M&HCV-fastest growing amongst all automotive segments
The Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicle (M&HCV) sub segment, including export sales, bounced back to robust growth of 17.4% YoY in FY15 after two years of decline. This was presence of MNC players, the industry will
place increased importance on technologically advanced and value added products. Also, the aftermarket will be
an important growth and profitability driver for the industry with customers preference for quality branded
products.
JAL is a leader in spring manufacturer in India
JAI is one of the world's leading players in automobile suspension solutions and amongst the world's top three
manufacturers of Multileaf springs with a growing presence in Parabolic Springs, Lift Axles and Air Suspensions.
The companmy is Supplying to Global and Domestic Commercial Vehicle Original Equipment Manufacturers
with a successful track record of consistently delivering best in class quality.
Strong distribution network and marquee clients portfolios
Jamna has built up a strong dealer network, through its subsidiary - Jai Suspension Systems LLP (JSS LLP), all
over the country to support growing domestic After Market demand. The company sells springs under the "JAI"
brand in the After Market and its products command premium.
- 2-

Vol.: 286
21st March,2016

Around The World

Weekly Market Recap :

The US Fed's lowering of forecast for possible rate hikes during the year sparked off a rally across asset classes, and
equity was no exception.

The week brought positive news from all fronts. At home, consumer and wholesale inflation data for February eased
further, raising hope of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) sooner than later.

Rate cut hopes strengthened after the US Fed dropped hints that there may not be more than two rate hikes this year against
its earlier forecast of four.

While the rise in crude prices was seen as a positive for emerging market (EM) equities in the short term, it may hurt
countries such as India with high current account deficit (CAD) in the long run.

Market Eye Week ahead :

Only the first three sessions of the week will see trading on Dalal Street. The market will be closed on Thursday on account of
Holi and on Friday for Good Friday.

On the global front, existing home sales data in the US will be unveiled on Monday, 21 March 2016. New home sales data in
the US will be unveiled on Wednesday, 23 March 2016. US will unveil Q4 gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday, 25
March 2016. Eurozone Markit PMI Composite index data for March will be unveiled on Thursday, 24 March 2016.

The next major trigger for the Indian markets is Q4 results of India Inc. The Q4 results season starts during second week of
April 2016.

The trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar, and
crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the absence of any domestic macro economic data.

Key Events / Factors to Watch

1. Mon : No Data
2. Tue : No Data
3. Wed : No Data
4. Thu : No Data
5. Fri : No Data

Knowledge Corner :
Producer Price Index (PPI)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is used to measure the change over time of the average price of goods produced domestically.

PPI is divided into three levels. The first is the PPI commodity Index, which shows the average price change over a certain time period
(usually a month) for commodities like crude oil and coal.

PPI of finished goods is a direct indicator of the near-term level of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

- 3-

Vol.: 286
21st March,2016

Mutual Fund Corner

Top 10 Sector Break-Ups

Fund Name

Fund (%)

Sector Weights

Scheme Name

Birla Sun Life Tax Relief 96

AMC

Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd

Type

Tax Planning

Category

Open-ended and Equity

Launch Date

March 1996

Fund Manager

Ajay Garg

Net Assets
(` In crore )

Rs. 1928.2 crore as on Jan 31, 2016

Financial

23.91

Automobile

16.2

Services

12.74

Healthcare

8.6

Engineering

7.82

Technology

6.55

Chemicals

5.51

FMCG

5.03

Diversified

4.57

Energy

3.14

History

2013

2014

2015

2016

NAV (Rs)

86.06

128.10

137.07

122.74

Total Return (%)

9.10

54.54

9.15

-10.45

+/-Nifty 50

2.34

23.15

13.21

-1.19

+/- S&P BSE 100

4.72

19.07

10.63

-0.22

Rank (Fund/Category)

11/37

19/73

7/73

24/81

52 Week High (Rs)

86.06

128.12

143.72

52 Week Low (Rs)

68.31

78.21

126.69

Equity

Net Assets (Rs.Cr)

1401.31

1808.99

1947.66

Debt

2.38

Expense Ratio (%)

2.42

2.32

2.38

Cash

-0.21

Risk Analysis
Volatility Measures
Standard Deviation

15.00

Sharpe Ratio

0.87

Beta

0.98
0.82

R-Squared
Alpha

11.40

Composition (%)

Fund Performance v/s S&P CNX Nifty

97.83

Fund Style
Investment Style
Blend

Value

Large
Medium
Small

Fund
CNX Nify
(Rebased to 10,000)
- 4-

Capitalization

Growth

Source : - www.valueresearchonline.com

Vol.: 286
21st March,2016

Commodity Corner
BULLION
FUNDAMENTAL: Bullion prices last week ended with mixed node where gold prices dropped over 1 percent and silver ended with small gains paring
most of its gains as a recovery in the U.S. dollar and stronger global equity markets dented the metals safe-haven appeal, prompting market
players to take profits after a sharp rally the day before. The dollar recovered from a five-month low on Friday, as investors bought back greenbacks
ahead of the weekend following an aggressive selloff earlier in the week. The Fed scaled back forecasts for how high interest rates will rise this year
following the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday, citing the potential impact from weaker global growth and financial market turmoil on
the U.S. economy. Investors dialed back their own rate hike expectations in wake of the Feds surprisingly dovish outlook, with traders of interestrate futures now seeing no rate rise before September. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of
increases. Despite recent losses, prices of the yellow metal are up nearly 16% so far this year as investors seek saf e havens in the face of mounting
instability in other financial markets and as fears over a China-led global economic slowdown make it tougher for the Fed to raise rates. Indian jewellers called off a 19-day strike late on Saturday after government assured they will not be "harassed" by the excise department in collecting a new
tax. Jewellers from the world's second-biggest gold consumer went on an indefinite strike from the start of March after government reintroduced a 1percent excise duty on gold jewellery after four years. In the week ahead, market players will be turning their attention to Fridays final reading on
U.S. fourth quarter gross domestic product for fresh indications on the strength of the economy. Reports on U.S. durable goods orders and home
sales will also be in focus, as investors attempt to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand further rate hikes in 2016.
Investors will also be paying close attention to a number of speeches from key Fed officials this week, including James Bullard, Dennis Lockhart, Jeffrey Lacker, Charles Evans and Patrick Harker.

RECOMMENDATION : SELL GOLD @ 29500 SL 29950 TGT 28650-28200 , SELL SILVER @ 38000 SL 39100 TGT 37250-36400

BASE METALS
FUNDAMENTAL: Base metals prices last week ended with mixed node where zinc prices gained by over one percent on weekly basis amid signs of
tightening supply while aluminium was the major loser falling by over 4 percent as the worlds largest maker of the metal said it will expand capacity. China Hongqiao Group Ltd., which last year surpassed Russias United Co. Rusal as the biggest producer, will boost capacity by 16 percent this
year to about 6 million metric tons. The aluminium sector continued to suffer from oversupply and the entire industry went into the red as aluminium
remained low. Aluminum stockpiles have been falling along with other metals as the LME tightens warehousing rules to prevent queues from building. China's economy is showing signs of improvement while capital outflows from the country are moderating, top Chinese officials said, seeking to
shore up investor confidence after recent market volatility. World refined zinc production fell to 1.12 million metric tons in January, from 1.14 million
in December, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said in a report. Zinc has rallied 9.6 percent this year amid speculation that the market
will be in deficit after producers including Glencore Plc curbed output. That would be the largest deficit since 2005. Prices slid 26 percent in 2015 as
Chinas economy grew at the weakest pace in more than a generation. Chinas zinc ingot output is expected to remain flat at 5.53 million tonnes in
2016 compared with 2015. TCs of domestic zinc concentrate are expected to fall. China has 260,000-tpy new zinc smelting capacity in 2015, and
280,000-tpy in 2016. But these capacities contributed limited output. Moreover, some zinc smelters including Zhuzhou Smelter slashed output.
Chinas net imports of zinc ingot should increase 120,000-130,000 tonnes in 2016 from 2015. Money managers cut a net-long position in U.S.
copper futures in the week to March 15 by 3,787 to 27,862 contracts, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed. In news, the
Philippines' second-biggest nickel ore miner, Global Ferronickel Holdings Inc, may boost its output if nickel prices sustain a rebound from decadelows amid signs of a recovery in China's economy, company officials said. In the week ahead, market players will be turning their attention to Fridays final reading on U.S. fourth quarter gross domestic product for fresh indications on the strength of the economy. Reports on U.S. durable goods
orders and home sales will also be in focus, as investors attempt to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand further rate
hikes in 2016.

RECOMMENDATION : SELL COPPER @ 341 SL 348 TGT 335-328 , SELL ZINC @ 124 SL 127 TGT 120-118 , SELL NICKEL @ 590 SL 610 TGT
572-560, BUY ALUMINIUM @ 98 SL 95 TGT 101-104.

ENERGY
FUNDAMENTAL: Crude oil prices ended with around 1.77% gains amid growing hopes major oil producers will work together to cap output, but the
U.S oil rig count rose the first time since December limited the upside. U.S. energy firms last week added one oil rig after 12 weeks of cuts,
according to data by industry firm Baker Hughes. The addition, coming after oil rigs had fallen by two-thirds over the past year to 2009 lows, showed
the fall in crude drilling stabilising after a 50-percent price rally since February. Global oversupply in oil had knocked crude prices down from
mid-2014 highs above $100 a barrel to 12-year lows earlier this year, taking Brent to around $27 and U.S. crude to about $26. The combination of
declining oil output, smaller crude stockpile builds and surging gasoline consumption in the United States helped the recovery. Prices have also
rallied over the last two months after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) floated the idea of a production freeze at
January's levels. The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States gained nearly 25 cents in the past four weeks, according to a survey.
Money managers raised bullish bets on U.S. crude to a five-month high, data showed on Friday. According to Qatari oil minister Mohammed Bin
Saleh Al-Sada, producers from within and outside OPEC will meet in Doha on April 17 to discuss plans for a freeze in output. The initiative was
supported by around 20 OPEC and non-OPEC producers, accounting for about 73% of global oil production, according to Venezuelas Oil Minister.
Natural gas prices last week ended with more than 3 percent gains after forecasts showed cooler weather that would boost demand for the fuel.
Bullish traders are betting that a cold spell in the U.S. East this weekend will boost heating fuel consumption, limiting gas stockpile gains as low
prices prompt drillers to curtail output. Prices rebounded from lows even as production from shale reservoirs shows no sign of the steep decline
needed to balance the market. Bullish traders are betting that a hot summer will stoke demand from power plants as an increase in U.S. gas exports
erodes the supply glut.

RECOMMENDATION : BUY CRUDEOIL @ 2600 SL 2480 TGT 2740-2880,BUY NAT GAS @ 122 SL 115 TGT 130-138

- 5-

Vol.: 285
14th March,2016

Commodity Corner

Forex Corner

Market Recap :

Last week the USD INR pair closed the week at

66.60 thus showing net gain of 1% on week to week
basis. Indias rupee (INR) appreciated last week as
a dovish FOMC statement weakened US Dollar
against all major currencies.

Also, local stock markets continued to rise with

strong foreign inflows. We expect flows to continue
in coming week also thus appreciating currency
further.

Market Eye Week ahead :

Indian domestic data will be rather more limited in the coming week, with demand for the Indian Rupee (INR) expected to
be driven primarily by global market sentiment and US economic data. Thursdays US Durable Goods Orders report could
see the US Dollar (USD) enter a fresh slump across the board. Indias rupee appreciated last week, as local stock
markets continued to rise with strong foreign inflows. We advise USD INR pair to sell on rise and expect to touch 65.00
levels soon.

USD/INR
Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

USD/INR

66.24

65.89

66.93

67.28

67.97

67.61

66.57

66.60

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

EUR/INR

74.61

74.14

75.17

75.64

76.20

75.73

74.70

75.08

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

GBP/INR

95.16

94.09

96.06

97.13

98.03

96.97

95.00

96.22

Level

S2

S1

CP

R1

R2

High

Low

Close

JPY/INR

59.07

58.40

59.56

60.23

60.72

60.06

58.90

59.73

EUR/INR

GBP/INR

JPY/INR

-- 46--

Vol.: 286
21st March,2016

J Street Recommendations Report Card

The trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar, and crude oil
price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the absence of any domestic macro economic data.

Nifty finally closed the week at 7604.35 thereby showed a net rise of 1.25%.More upside can be confirmed if breakout and close
above 7650 is witnessed. In the event of a further sustained rise and close above 7650 expect the next lower top of 7972 to be tested.
The supply zone is at 7863-7972. The retracement levels of the fall from 9119 to 6825 are placed at 7716, 7955 and 8273. Traders
long can revise up the stop loss to 7400 to reduce the risk. The daily chart has the gap at 7674-7741.

Top Fundamental Stocks

Stocks

Rec. Date

CMP on Rec.

CMP

Target

Absolute
Return @
CMP

Status

Jamna Auto

22/02/2016

133

134

181

1%

Buy

MT Educare

1/2/2016

164

171

230

4%

Buy

Garware-Wall Ropes

28/12/2015

425

333

550

-22%

Buy

Welspun syntax

23/11/2015

121

99

223

-18%

Buy

Natco Pharma

2/11/2015

509

475

636

-7%

Buy

SRF

21/09/2015

1140

1225

1374

7%

Buy

Ahluwalia contracts

24/08/2015

235

260

368

11%

Buy

Infinite Computer Sol.

20/07/2015

190

212

255

12%

Buy

Ambika Cotton Mills

18/05/2015

880

828

1149

-6%

Buy

4/5/2015

298

269

430

-10%

Buy

16/03/2015

152

163

251

7%

Buy

DHFL

16/02/2015

252

185

368

-27%

Accumulate

TV Today Network

27/01/2015

222

296

337

33%

Buy

M&M

12/1/2015

1238

1227

1452

-1%

Buy

Havells India

27/10/2014

274

300

346

9%

Buy

PTC India Fin. Ser.

7/7/2014

39

37

45

-5%

Buy

Adani Port

5/7/2014

280

243

347

-13%

Accumulate

Sadbhav Engineering
Ltd.
Omkar speciality
Chemicals

It's not important whether you are right or wrong, Its about how much money you make when you're right and how
much you lose when you're wrong.
- 7-

Vol.: 286
21st March,2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

SL

STATUS

%
RETURN

1430

TA

3.3

60.00

66.2

TA

6.0

51.00

47.00

55

TA

8.0

34

33.00

30.50

35.5

SL

-6.5

524

536

530.00

510.00

553

SL

-6.0

SELL

758

773

765.50

728.00

790

TA

5.2

SELL

878

891

884.50

846.00

910

TA

4.6

RELIANCE

SELL

954

970

962.00

915.00

995

TA

5.1

11-Feb-16

ADANI PORT

SELL

200

206

203.00

192.00

212

TA

5.7

10

12-Feb-16

BHARTIARTL

BUY

303

309

306.00

322.00

293

TA

5.2

11

15-Feb-16

INFRATEL

BUY

381

388

384.50

403.00

370

SL

-3.6

12

16-Feb-16

VEDL

SELL

73

76

74.50

69.00

78

TA

8.0

13

17-Feb-16

ICICI

SELL

194

198

196.00

185.00

204

TA

5.9

14

18-Feb-16

DRREDDY

BUY

2950

3000

2975.00 3140.00

2890

TA

5.5

15

19-Feb-16

DHFL

SELL

152

155

153.50

146.00

160

TA

5.1

16

22-Feb-16

SRTRANFIN

BUY

817

833

825.00

850.00

802

TA

3.0

17

23-Feb-16

PIDILITE

BUY

630

643

636.50

655.00

615

SL

-3.0

18

24-Feb-16

SELL

84

86

85.00

80.00

89

SL

-4.7

19

25-Feb-16

SELL

816

832

824.00

800.00

852

TA

3.0

20

29-Feb-16

DLF
INDUSINDBANK
KSCL

SELL

334

345

339.50

322.00

360

SL

-5.0

21

1-Mar-16

ARVIND

SELL

237

242

239.50

232.00

248

SL

-3.7

22

2-Mar-16

TATAELAXSI

BUY

1785

1825

1805.00 1870.00

1750

TA

3.6

23

3-Mar-16

MARUTI

SELL

3650

3580

3615.00 3500.00

3690

TA

3.3

Sr.
No.

DATE

1-Feb-16

2-Feb-16

SYNDIBANK

3-Feb-16

BUY/
SELL

TRIGGER
PRICE

RANGE

RANGE

1458

1486

SELL

63

64.2

63.60

ALBK

SELL

49

53

4-Feb-16

UCOBANK

SELL

32

5-Feb-16

JETAIRWAYS

SELL

8-Feb-16

9-Feb-16

10-Feb-16

- 7-

STOCK

APOLLOHOSP BUY

BHARATFORGE
INDUSINDBANK

TGT

1472.00 1520.00

Vol.: 286
21st March,2016

J Street Short Term Call Status

BUY/
SELL
SELL

TRIGGER
TGT
PRICE
290
286.50

SL

STATUS

CMP

276.00

300

SL

% RETURN
-4.7

914.00

945.00

885

TA

3.4

144

142.00

137.00

148

TA

3.6

374

382

378.00

390.00

360

OPEN

SELL

411

418

414.50

404.00

430

OPEN

BUY

845

858

851.50

875.00

825

TA

2.8

TATAMOTOR BUY

362

368

365.00

376.00

348

TA

3.0

SELL

1106

1128

1117.00 1080.00

1150

OPEN

0.0

BUY

223

233

228.00

240.00

210

OPEN

INDUSINDBK SELL

900

920

910.00

880.00

942

OPEN

Sr.
No.

DATE

STOCK

24

4-Mar-16

TATASTEEL

25

8-Mar-16

SRTTRANSFIN BUY

905

923

26

9-Mar-16

BANKBARODA SELL

140

27

10-Mar-16

RELCAPITAL

BUY

28

11-Mar-16

AXISBANK

29

14-Mar-16

HINDUNILVR

30

15-Mar-16

31

16-Mar-16

HDFC

32

17-Mar-16

ICICIBANK

33

18-Mar-16

STAUTS

CALLS

RATIO

TA+PB

18

69.23

SL+EXIT

30.76

TOTAL

26

100

RANGE
283

One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.
Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.
This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.
Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.
Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against the
Expected return of 5-6%
Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)

- 7-

Vol.: 286
21st March,2016