I. INTRODUCTION
This work was supported by the Korea National Research Foundation (KNRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MEST) (No.
#2012R1A2A2A01012803) and the MKE.
Jintaek Lim, Jinhwan Jang and Jaeseok Choi are with Dept. of Electrical
Engineering, ERI, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, GN, Korea (email:
jtlim@gnu.ac.kr, jhjang1@gnu.ac.kr, jschoi@jnu.ac.kr).
Keonghee Cho is with KERI, Chanwon, GN, South Korea.(email:
kx1004xh@keri.re.kr)
Junmin Cha is with Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Daejin University,
Pochun, GG, Korea (email: chamin@daejin.ac.kr).
1
3
C p V A
2
(1)
where,
P: power [W]
Cp: power coefficient
: air density (1.225 kg/m3)
V: wind velocity (m/sec)
A: swept area of rotor disc (m2)
Fig. 1 presents the typical relationship between the power
output of a WTG and wind speed [2][5].
2
Fig. 2. Outage capacity pdf from the wind speed model combined the WTG
power output model
PR
VR
Vci
Vco
Wind Velocity
( Pi + 2 , PBi + 2 )
( Pi +1 , PBi +1 )
( Pi , PBi )
5 4 3
wind
Velocity
+ 2 + 3
+ 4
+ 5
(2)
where ,
Vci: the cutin speed [m/sec].
VR: the rated speed [m/sec].
Vco: the cutout speed [m/sec].
PR: the rated power [MW].
wind
Velocity
where,
Pbi: Solar radiationtoenergy conversion function for solar
radiation band i of the SCG [MW]
Gbi: Forecasted solar radiation at band i [W/m2]
Gstd : Solar radiation in the standard environment set
usually as 1,000 [W/m2]
Rc: A certain radiation point set usually as 150 [W/m2]
Psn: Equivalent rated capacity of the SCG [MW]
Fig. 3 presents the typical relationship between the power
output of a SCG and solar radiation(SR) [1618].
( Pn , PBn )
( P3 , PB3 )
( P2 , PB2 )
( P1 , PB1 )
i = i 1 f oi
NS
NS
j =1
j =1
= (1 q ij ) i 1 ( x ) + q ij i 1 ( x C ij )
Fig. 4 Outage capacity pdf from the solar radiation model combined the SCG
power output model
(5)
where,
: The convolution integral operator
0: Original inverted load duration curve (ILDC)
x: Random variable of
NS: The total number of states
foi: The outage capacity pdf of generator i
qij: Forced outage rate (FOR) of generator i at state j
Cij: Outage capacity of generator i at state j
The basic reliability evaluation indices, namely the Loss of
Load Expectation (LOLE), the Expected Energy Not Supplied
(EENS), the Energy Index of Reliability (EIR) and
probabilistic production energy(Ei), production cost(PCi),
capacity factor(CFi) and total CO2 emissions, TCO2, are
described using the effective load duration curve, (x) by (6)(12).
LOLE = NG ( x) x = IC
[hours/year]
(6)
IC + L p
EENS =
NG ( x) dx
[MWh/year]
(7)
IC
EENS
[pu]
ED
E i = EENSi 1 EENSi
EIR = 1
(11)
n =1 i =1
PBi
(3)
P Pk
PBk +1 = i
P
PBi
(4)
where,
P = Pk+1Pk [MW]
k: State number of the simplified multistate model
i: State number of the original multistate model
(10)
Pk +1 Pi
PBk =
P
(9)
PCi = Fi (E i , LOLE i 1 )
NT NG
(8)
where,
Lp : Peak load [MW]
ICi : Installed capacity of generator i [MW]
ED : Total demand energy [MWh]
NG : The total generator number
NG : The final effective load duration curve
i : CO2 emission coefficient of the ith unit [Ton/MWh]
(12)
V. CASE STUDIES
A. Case Study I WTG
The Jeju Island power system in Korea as shown in Fig. 8
is used to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method.
In Jeju Island, three wind farms(WF) are constructed at three
different locations where are Halim (JCN), Sungsan (SSN)
and Hangwon (HWN).
HNM C/S
HVDC
Jeju T/P
JCN
G3 : 40MW
G3
Filter : 27.5MVAr X4
ShR : 1375X2.275
SNJ
G1 G2
DJJ
HWNWF
D D/P : 40MW
JEJUMS
T1
C1, C2
: Syn, Con
T2
10MVAr
T3
T/P : 10MW X1
75MW X2
SSN
SJJ
20MVAr
20MVAr
SSNWF
HLMWF
20MVAr
G1
SSNMS
HLM C/C G2
S
35MW X3
10MVAr
10MVAr
AND
GNSMS
HNR
SSG
NMJ
T4 T3
T/P : 100MW X2
SGPMS
D1 D2 D3 D4 D/P : 10MW X4
1 HWN WTG
2 SSN WTG
3 HLM WTG
4* HVDC DC
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
NMJ3
JJU1
JJU2
HLM1
HLM1
JJU3
NMJ1
Total
T/P
T/P
T/P
G/T
S/T
D/P
D/P
Capacity
Num. [Gcal/
[MW]
MW2h]
50
1
30
1
20
1
75/
2
0.004
150*
100
2
0.004
10
1
0.062
75
2
0.003
35
2
0.004
35
1
0.004
40
1
0.025
10
4
0.006
945
18

CO2
Fuel cost
[Gcal/ [Gcal
emission
FOR
[$/Gcal]
MWh] /hr]
[Ton/MWh]
0.010/
1.512 45.207 43.300
0.65
0.028*
1.512 45.207 43.300
0.65
0.012
2.100 5.971 43.599
0.96
0.015
1.832 30.231 43.599
0.70
0.012
2.401 20.320 77.909
0.95
0.013
2.401 20.320 77.909
0.95
0.013
0.364 28.484 43.599
0.59
0.018
1.999 1.360 43.300
0.62
0.018

Load [pu]
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
1095
2190
3285
4380
5475
6570
7665
8760
Time [hours]
WF Name
WTG capacity
Cutin speed(Vci)
Rated speed(VR)
Cutout speed(Vco)
Wind speed range
Mean wind speed
Standard deviation
TABLE
THE DATA OF EACH WF
HLMWF
SSNWF
20MW
30MW
5m/sec
5m/sec
14m/sec
15m/sec
25m/sec
25m/sec
0~35
0~40
6.4
7.6
9
10
HWNWF
50MW
5m/sec
16m/sec
25m/sec
0~45
8.5
11
TABLE
RESULTS OF CASE STUDIES
without WTG with WTG difference
SRR [%]
24.08
38.77
14.69
EENS [MWh/year]
83.92
44.52
39.4
LOLE [hours/year]
2.25
1.26
0.99
Total production cost [M$/year]
426.91
400.75
26.16
Total CO2 Emission [103Ton/year]
2,727.88
2,561.31 166.57
Total CO2 Emission Cost [M$/Ton]
65.47
61.47
4
TABLE
PRODUCTION ENERGY AND CAPACITY FACTOR OF EACH GENERATORS
Without WTG
With WTG
Num. of
Production
Production
Capacity factor
Capacity factor
Gen.
energy
energy
[%]
[%]
[GWh/year]
[GWh/year]
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2,541.20
1,424.80
29.41
161.77
7.26
1.17
0.60
0.16
96.70
81.33
33.57
12.31
1.18
0.38
0.17
0.05
Total
4,530.93
133.97
73.52
38.87
2,540.80
1,245.40
20.32
108.05
4.47
0.70
0.30
0.09
30.59
27.98
22.19
96.68
71.08
23.20
8.22
0.73
0.23
0.09
0.03
0.04
0.02
469.27
0.35
0.10
2,984.94
0.02
0.01
441.38
0.18
0.05
2,813.23
HLMSF
SSNSF
HWNSF
SCG capacity
20MW
30MW
50MW
Gstd*
1,000W/m2
1,000W/m2
1,000W/m2
Rc*
150W/m2
150W/m2
150W/m2
0.6
0.55
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0
200
400
600
800
Solar radiation[W/m 2 ]
1000
1200
4,530.98
TABLE
PRODUCTION COST AND CO2 EMISSION OF EACH GENERATORS
Without WTG
With WTG
Num. of Production
Production
CO2 Emission
CO2 Emission
Gen.
cost
cost
[103TON/year]
[103TON/year]
[M$/year]
[M$/year]
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Total
Probability
265.38
139.39
4.20
15.95
1.66
0.27
1,651.79
926.15
28.23
113.24
6.90
1.11
265.28
120.71
2.90
10.65
1.02
0.16
1,651.54
809.48
19.51
75.64
4.25
0.66
TABLE VII
PRODUCTION ENERGY AND CAPACITY FACTOR OF EACH GENERATORS
Without WTG
With WTG
Num. of
Production
Production
Capacity factor
Capacity factor
Gen.
energy
energy
[%]
[%]
[GWh/year]
[GWh/year]
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2541.2
1424.8
29.411
161.77
7.2602
96.7
81.33
33.57
12.31
1.18
63.731
38.238
25.492
2541.2
1335.5
24.267
131.02
5.6183
14.55
14.55
14.55
96.7
76.23
27.7
9.97
0.92
6
9
10
11
Total
1.1725
0.59742
0.16235
0.38
0.17
0.05
0.89939
0.41471
0.11576
0.29
0.12
0.03
25
Peak SR
CF
1200
20
1000
800
15
600
10
400
5
200
0
1400
0
1
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Week
250
20
200
15
150
10
100
5
50
0
300
0
1
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Week
LOLE [days/year]
1
Without SCG
With SCG
0.75
0.5
VII. ACKNOWLEDGMENT
10MW
0.25
0
641
681
691
701
711
721
731
741
695  705
L
100 =
100 = 10 [%]
CA
100
VIII. REFERENCES
[1]
[2]
VI. CONCLUSIONS
This paper reports on a reliability evaluation study on a
power system containing WTG and SCG. This paper is
focused on the development of a methodology and simulation
tools for evaluating the contribution of WTGs and SCGs to
the reliability and economic efficiency of power systems
under the Markov assumption, that the transition rate between
any two states is independent of prior history. The
contributions of this paper may be summarized as follows.
[3]
[4]
[5]
[6]
7
[7]
[8]
[9]
[10]
[11]
[12]
[13]
[14]
[15]
[16]
[17]
[18]
[19]
[20]
[21]
[22]
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IX. BIOGRAPHIES
Jintaek Lim was born in Samcheonpo, Korea in 1985. He received the B.Sc
degrees from Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, in 2011. His research
interest includes Reliability evaluation of power systems, Web based online
realtime reliability information system of power system. He is now working
forward a M,Sc degree at Gyeongsang National University.
Jinhwan Jang was born in Jinju, Korea in 1988. His research interest
includes Transmission Expansion Planning using Reliability Evaluation of
Power Systems. He will receive the B.Sc. degree from Gyeonsang National
University, Jinju, in 2013.
Jaeseok Choi (S88M91SM05) was born in Kyeongju, Korea, in 1958.
He received the B.Sc., M.Sc., and Ph.D. degrees from Korea University, Seoul,
in 1981, 1984, and 1990, respectively. He was a Postdoctoral at the University
Junmin Cha (M96) was born at Inchon, Korea on 1964. He obtained B.Sc.,
M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees from Korea University in 1989, 1991 and 1996
respectively. His research interest includes Fuzzy Applications, Probabilistic
Production Cost Simulation, Reliability Evaluation, Outage Cost Assessment
of Power Systems and Operation and Planning of Deregulated Power Market.
Since 1996, he has been a faculty of Daejin University, where is now a
professor.