Binomial

Distribution: Must: fixed trials, two outcomes (success or

failure), P(success)=p and P(fail)=1-p, and trials are independent/ with
replacement after each trial. CALCULATING PROBABILITY
!
=
! ; X= 0,1,2,3
! ! !

= ; = ; = ( )
Counts the number of successes in the n trials, and is called the
binomial random variable= discrete variable
Ex. Pat has quiz with 10 MC questions. Each question has five
possible answers. What is the probability that Pat gets no answers
correct?
N=10, P=1/5 (1-p)=4/5; Pat getting no answers right P(x=0), =
!
(. ) . !
! ! !

Cumulative problems where it includes multiple x values P(X<n), so
what is the probability Pat will fail? That means 4 questions or less
were answered so = + + ()
Using Binomial Table n=10, , = 4, = 0.2 Fast
way to calculate P(X=n) using table:
= = , ( )
= ( )

Poisson distribution-The number of successful events that occur in a
time interval is independent of the number of success that occurs in
another time interval. It fits cases of rare events that occur over a fixed
amount of time or within a specified region. AVERAGE MUST BE GIVEN

The probability that two or more successes will occur in an interval

approaches zero as the interval becomes smaller

!
!

; = ()= ()

Ex. Patients arrive at the emergency room of Mercy Hospital at the

average rate of 6 per hour evenings, what is the probability of 4
arrivals in 30 minutes on a weekend evening? Find mean and
variance
!

= =
!


Hypergeometric Distribution: the trials are not independent, without
replacement and the probability of success changes from trial to trial.
u= 6/ hour 3/ 30 min then. X=4 =

!
!

; F(x)= probability of x successes in n

trails, n=# of trials, N=# of elements in population , r= # of elements in

population that labeled success

!
= = ; = = ( )( )( )

Consider a hypergeometric distribution with n trials and let p= (r/n)

denote the probability of a success on the first trial. If the population
size is large, the term (Nn)/(N1) approaches 1. The expected
value and variance can be written E(x) = np and Var(x) = np(1 p).
Ex. You first randomly sample one card from a 52-card deck. What is
the probability that two cards will be aces out of three cards chosen?

Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of random variable X is
Theorem for any discrete random variable X is F(x)=P(X )


Ex. The PMF of the number N of customers that arrive at a station within a
one-hour interval is defined by P n =

!!! !!
!!

n = 0,1,2, } What is the

0
probability that at most two customers arrive at the station within one
hour?
Solution: P(N )= P(0) + P(1) + p(2) P(

!!! !!
!!

!!! !!
!!

!!! !!
!!

The PMF of the number of components K of a system that fails is defined

!
!
!!!
by P(k)= ! . 2 . 8
k = 0,1,2,3,4} (a) What is the CDF of K? b) What is
o
the probability that fewer than two components of the system fail?
!
Solution- Formula: F(k)=P(K4)=
(. )(. ! )

! ! !

b) Fewer than 2 is P(X<2)= P(0)+ P(1)=0.8192

CDF graphs and reading it like limits:








Corresponding PMF
1)P[Y<1]=Fy(! ) =0
0 = 3 , 5
2) P[Y ] = (! )=0.6
P(x)= 0.6 = 1
3)P[Y>2]=1-P[Y ]=1-0.8=0.2
0.2 = 2, 4
4)P[Y ] = [ < ]=1-0.6=0.4

5)P[Y=1]= P[Y1]- P[Y<1]=0.6-0=0.6
6) P[Y=3]= P[Y3]- P[Y<3]=0.8-0.8=0

Geometric Random Variable-The number of independent Bernoulli
trials until the first success if you repeat an experiment and it has 2
outcomes, calculates number of trails until you get first success. The
probability of success, p,is constant. The probability mass function, pmf,

!
is: = ( )! , = = , = =

Ex. Someone is trying to take the road test. If the probability of

passing the test is 40%, what is the probability that this person will
pass the test at second shot? = ( . )! .
Similarities/ differences b/w Binomial & Geometric random
variable Similarities: independent trials, probabilities of success /
failure Differences: Binomial, know how many trials in total and
Geometric, dont know it/ not of interest. Binomial, several
possibilities for a specific value of the variable, but geometric, theres
one.

Poisson Approx. to the Binomial Distribution
This approximation can safely be applied if n (#of variables)>50 and np
(probability)<5... large number small probability.
Ex. book error is 0.005 and there are 400 pages, what is the probability
that one of the pages has an error? n=400, mean=np=2 ()

!
!

Generally, Poisson Table exhibits the Cumulative distribution function. For

example, if u=2,thenP (X3)=F(3;2)=.857, where as P(X=3)=F(3;2)
F(2;2)=.180.

Counting theory

An ordered k-tuple is an ordered collection of k objects

Multiplication- sampling with replacement if sets A contain n elements
then there are n ways of choosing first element of A the element A2 and so
on.

Permutation sampling without replacement, the number of r objects
selected from a distinct n objects, order matters. Size is k. =

(!)!

Ex. Each department has one representative on council. From

these seven representatives, one is chair, vice-chair, and a third is
secretary.
!
P(3,7)=7*6*5 or =

(!)!

Combination sampling without replacement the number of ways which r

objects can be selected from a set of n objects, no order

!(!)!

Ex. Three balls are to be chosen without replacement from 8 balls

2 red, 3 black, 3 green. Find the probability that one ball is red
and 2 are black? =

Repeated permutation
The repetition of letters in a word formula is

!
!!!

Ex. The word Successful how many time could we rearrange the
letters.
Sol: Total words= 10; s=3 u=2 c=2, e=1, f=1, l=1
!
=

!+!+!+!+!+!

Circular Permutation
The number of ways to arrange n distinct objects along a fixed circle I s
= ! Example: How many possible ways 8 students can be
seated around a circular table? (8-1)! = 7!
a) if two students want to sit side by side? (7-1)!2! = 6!.2!

b) If two do not want to side-by-side (8-1)! -(7-1)!2! = 7! -6!.2!

Random Variable: A random variable is a function or rule that assigns a
number to each outcome of an experiment

Discrete Random Variable one that takes on a countable number of
values (2,3). Integers are discrete

Continuous Random Variable one whose values are not discrete, not
countable E.g. The minimum value longer than 30minutes
(30.,or30.,or30.000000) Real #s
Probability distributions a table, formula, or graph that describes the
values of a random variable and the probability associated with these
values can be: 1) Discrete Random Variable-
0 () for all x and = so it is relative frequency, Ex. at
least one television but no more than three P(1 X 3) = P(1) + P(2) +
P(3) and relative probability is by dividing # of households/ total
households
2) Continuous Random Variable-

Probability Distribution- There is 20% chance of closing a sale on each
call. What is the probability distribution of the number of sales if calling
three customers? DRAW TREE

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

( )
( )

Complement of Event P(AC ) = 1 P(A)

Union of Events P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)
Intersection of Events P(A and B)= P(A | B) P(B)
Mutually Exclusive Events P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
If we multiply both sides of the equation by P(B) we have: P(A and B)
= P(A | B) P(B)
6. A special case: A and B are independent, then P(A and B) = P(A)
P(B)

Laws of Expected
1.E(c)=c the expected value of a constant (c) is just the value of the
constant itself.
Ex. E(x)=E(3x+1)= 3*E(x) +1
2.E (X+c)=E(X)+c
3.E (cX)=cE(X) We can pull a constant out of the expected value
expression(either as part of a sum with a random variable X or as a
coefficient of random variable X)
Example. Monthly sales have a mean of $25,000 and a standard deviation
of $4,000. Multiplying sales by 30% and subtracting fixed costs of $6,000
calculate profits.
1)Describe the problem statement in Math:
-sales have a mean of $25,000E(Sales) = 25,000
-Profits is E(Profit) = E(.30(Sales) 6,000)
= E[.30(Sales)] 6,000
= .30E(Sales) 6,000
= .30(25,000) 6,000
= 1,500

Laws of Variance
1.V(c)=0
The variance of a constant (c) is zero.
2.V(X+c)=V(X)
The variance of a random variable and a constant is just the variance of the
random variable
3.V(cX)=c^2V(X)
The variance of a random variable and a constant coefficient is the
coefficient squared times the variance of the random variable.