Power Distribution

Planning Reference Book

Second Edition, Revised and Expanded

H. Lee Willis

ABB, Inc.
Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S.A.

MARCEL

MARCEL DEKKER, INC.

lo
DEKKER

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

NEW YORK BASEL

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Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

POWER ENGINEERING
Series Editor

H. Lee Willis
ABB Inc.
Raleigh, North Carolina

1. Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, H. Lee Willis

2. Transmission Network Protection: Theory and Practice, Y. G.
Paithankar
3. Electrical Insulation in Power Systems, N. H. Malik, A. A. AlArainy, and M. I. Qureshi
4. Electrical Power Equipment Maintenance and Testing, Paul Gill
5. Protective Relaying: Principles and Applications, Second Edition, J.
Lewis Blackburn
6. Understanding Electric Utilities and De-Regulation, Lorrin Philipson
and H. Lee Willis
7. Electrical Power Cable Engineering, William A. Thue
8. Electric Systems, Dynamics, and Stability with Artificial
Intelligence Applications, James A. Momoh and Mohamed E. ElHaw ary
9. Insulation Coordination for Power Systems, Andrew R. Hileman
10. Distributed Power Generation: Planning and Evaluation, H. Lee
Willis and Walter G. Scott
11. Electric Power System Applications of Optimization, James A.
Momoh
12. Aging Power Delivery Infrastructures, H. Lee Willis, Gregory V.
Welch, and Randall R. Schrieber
13. Restructured Electrical Power Systems: Operation, Trading, and
Volatility, Mohammad Shahidehpour and Muwaffaq Alomoush
14. Electric Power Distribution Reliability, Richard E. Brown
15. Computer-Aided Power System Analysis, Ramasamy Natarajan
16. Power System Analysis: Short-Circuit Load Flow and Harmonics,
J. C. Das
17. Power Transformers: Principles and Applications, John J. Winders,
Jr.
18. Spatial Electric Load Forecasting: Second Edition, Revised and Ex-

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

panded, H. Lee Willis

19. Dielectrics in Electric Fields, Gorur G. Raju
20. Protection Devices and Systems for High-Voltage Applications,
Vladimir Gurevich
21. Electrical Power Cable Engineering: Second Edition, Revised and
Expanded, William A. Thue
22. Vehicular Electric Power Systems: Land, Sea, Air, and Space Vehicles, Ali Emadi, Mehrdad Ehsani, and John M. Miller
23. Power Distribution Planning Reference Book: Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, H. Lee Willis
24. Power System State Estimation: Theory and Implementation, Ali
Abur and Antonio Gomez Expos/to

ADDITIONAL VOLUMES IN PREPARATION

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Series Introduction
The original edition of Power Distribution Planning Reference Book was the first in
Marcel's Dekker's Power Engineering series. It is a sign of the growing maturity of this
series, and the continued development and evolution of power engineering and the utility
industry, that many of the books in it are now going into their second editions. Power
engineering is certainly the oldest and was for many decades the most traditional of the
various areas within electrical engineering. Without doubt, electric power and utilities are
also the oldest technology-based sector of modern industry. Yet no other facet of our
technology and culture is undergoing such a lengthy and comprehensive revolution.
It would be a gross simplification to attribute all the changes the power industry is
seeing to de-regulation, which is in fact more an effect of much larger forces than a root
cause of the industry's continuing transformation. As proof, one only has to look at power
distribution. Distribution is the level of the power system least impacted by de-regulation,
yet it has changed dramatically in the past decade, as Power Distribution Planning
Reference Book, Second Edition bears witness. Fully 70% of the book is new compared to
the first edition. Overall, the second edition contains more than twice the content of the
first, changes fairly reflecting the growth and change of power distribution planning in the
21st century.
As both the editor of the Power Engineering series and the author of this book, I am
proud to include Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, Second Edition, in this
important group of books. Following the theme we have set from the beginning in Marcel
Dekker's Power Engineering series, this book provides modem power technology in a
context of proven, practical application; useful as a reference book as well as for self-study
and advanced classroom use. Marcel Dekker's Power Engineering series includes books
covering the entire field of power engineering, in all of its specialties and sub-genres, all
aimed at providing practicing power engineers with the knowledge and techniques they
need to meet the electric industry's challenges in the 21st century.
H. Lee Willis

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Preface
This second edition of the Power Distribution Planning Reference Book is, like the first,
both a reference book and a tutorial guide for the planning of electric utility power delivery
systems. But it is much more than just a revision of the former edition. During the decade
since the first edition was published a number of forces have come together to greatly
complicate and expand the role of the power distribution planner. This new book, which
contains more than twice the content of the original, has been designed to fit the wider
scope and greater complexity of modern power distribution planning.
Foremost among the changes affecting planners has been an industry-wide move toward
very explicit management of reliability. Modern electric utilities cannot meet their customer
and regulatory expectations simply by designing to good standards and criteria as utilities
did in the past. A 21st-century power company must aim at and achieve specific targets with
respect to reliability of service.
But while reliability-targeted performance may be the greatest new technical challenge
affecting many modern power delivery planners, changes in utility business and financial
orientation have had a much larger impact on most. Performance-based and frozen-rate
schedules, disaggregation of the traditional vertical structure, and subtle changes in the
attitude of the investment community toward utilities in general have created tremendous
pressure to reduce spending and improve financial performance. While this means planners
are challenged more than ever to reduce cost, there is a subtle difference between
"spending" and "cost." Traditional methods of evaluating merit and ranking alternatives
against one another do not always fit well in this new environment.
The third change has been a rather sudden and still-growing recognition that "aging
infrastructures" have become a significant problem. A few utilities have systems whose
average age exceeds the nominal design lifetime of major electrical equipment. Almost all
have significant areas of their system where this is the case. Aging equipment has a higher
failure rate, requires more maintenance, and has a shorter expected lifetime than new
equipment, all factors that potentially reduce reliability and increase cost.
Beyond the very real challenge that dealing with increasing amounts of worn out
equipment creates, aging infrastructures have brought about a subtle change in technical

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

approach and cultural attitudes at utilities. Traditionally, the fact that all equipment would
eventually "die" was understood by all concerned, but it had no role in utility engineering
planning. Unavailability of equipment for brief periods, perhaps unexpectedly, was a
recognized problem and addressed by contingency planning methods. But the concept of
"lifetime" was completely absent from traditional T&D planning, which effectively
assumed that equipment already in the system as well as that being added would be there
"forever."
Today, planners, managers, and operators at many utilities realize that much of their
system will fail within the span of their career, a good deal of it in the very foreseeable
future. Lifetime, as affected by specification, utilization and required reliability, and care
given equipment, is suddenly something to be explicitly studied and managed. These
considerations, and their obvious interaction with targeted reliability and tight budget
considerations, greatly complicate T&D planning.
One reaction to the combination of increasing focus on business coupled with this need
to manage "lifetime" has been the advent of "Asset Management" as a business paradigm
for electric utilities. While that term has many variations in meaning within the industry, it
invariably means a closer integration of business and engineering, and of capital and O&M
planning, aimed at a "lifetime optimum" business-case for the acquisition, use, and
maintenance of equipment and facilities. The author does not mean to imply that the use of
asset management methods in the power industry has been driven by the aging
infrastructure issue. In fact it has been driven mostly by a search for an improved business
paradigm suitable for the modern regulatory and financial environment. But asset
management methods provided a very sound basis for considering all of the issues that
surround equipment aging and "lifetime management," and thus fit not only the business,
but many of the new technical issues in the industry.
Despite all these changes, distribution planning still involves developing and justifying a
schedule of future additions and changes that will assure the utility's goals for electric
delivery are met. Tactically, distribution planners must accomplish three tasks. First, they
must identify the goals for their system. Exactly what constitutes "satisfactory
performance?" How is that measured? What does "lowest cost" and "least budget" mean?
Unambiguous, quantitative targets must be established for all planning goals.
Second, planners must understand how differences in distribution system design and
equipment will affect the achievement of these goals. Distribution systems are complicated
combinatorial entities, whose performance and economy depend on the coordinated
interaction of tens of thousands of individual equipment and circuit elements. Worldwide,
there are several fundamentally different "design philosophies" for laying out a distribution
system and engineering it to work well what might be called differing design paradigms.
All work well. But while each paradigm has its plusses and minuses, there is usually one
best design to achieve the planner's specific desired targets and end results.
Third, planners must find that best design, every time, from among the thousands or
even tens of thousands of feasible designs that might work for their system. Their planning
methodology must be comprehensive and complete, assuring that nothing is overlooked and
that every opportunity for savings or improvement is fully exploited.
This second edition has been written to address this distribution planning process in a
way that meets all of the new challenges discussed above. Following his own advice - that
reliability and business prioritization must be built into the system and the planning process,
and not "tacked on at the end" - the author has not updated the first edition by simply
adding a few new chapters on reliability-based planning, aging equipment, and businessbased prioritization methods.

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Instead, the bulk of the original book has been entirely re-written in company with the
addition of many new topics and chapters new material. As a result, most of this second
edition is new. There are two completely new chapters on reliability (Chapters 21 and 23),
but more important, reliability engineering and planning concepts are distributed throughout
the book, beginning in Chapter 1 and continuing through to the end. Similarly, there are
new chapters on business-based "bang for the buck" prioritization methods (Chapter 6), on
aging infrastructures and their impacts (Chapters 7 and 8) and on business-based and asset
management planning methods (Chapter 28). But more importantly, those concepts are all
woven throughout all of the book, in both old and new chapters. The net result of these
additions and enhancements, along with other new chapters on distributed resources
(Chapter 10) and objectivity and accuracy in planning (Chapter 29), is that the Power
Distribution Planning Reference Book has more than doubled in content, from just under
290,000 words in the first edition to more than 600,000 here, an increase that the author
believes is rather representative of the increased challenge that modem planners face.
Roughly speaking, the job is about twice as difficult as it was in the past.
The much greater length of this second edition has brought some changes in
organization to make the book more useful both as a tutorial guide and as a reference for
practicing planners. First, to facilitate tutorial usage each chapter has been written as much
as possible as a stand-alone, serial treatise on its topic. (Chapters 13-15 are a notable
exception, being in reality a single 130+ page discussion of feeder planning.) Second, to
facilitate usage as a reference, numerous cross-references by topic and interaction have
been given among chapters, and each chapter concludes with a one-page table summarizing
its key concepts - useful for quick reference. A concluding chapter has been added that
summarizes key concepts and guidelines, and gives references to chapters and sections
where detail can be found on each point. Finally, the author has endeavored to make the
index particularly comprehensive and useful.
This book is organized into four parts. The first ten chapters constitute basic "resource"
material, each chapter being more or less a stand-alone tutorial on a specific area of modern
T&D planning or systems (e.g., Chapter 6 on prioritization and ranking methods). The
second part of the book, Chapters 11-19, is a bottom-up look at T&D systems in detail,
including their electrical performance, reliability, and cost. The third part of the book,
Chapters 20-25, covers T&D planning tools and technologies. Chapters 26-30 conclude
with a look at the planning process: how it is organized, how it meshes with other utility
functions, and how planners work within it.
Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to distribution systems, their mission, the rules
that govern their behavior, and their performance and economics. This one-chapter
summary is provided for those unfamiliar with or new to power delivery systems.
Experienced planners can skip this chapter, although it is recommended, as several key
concepts, particularly the systems approach and Two-Q, are introduced here.
Ultimately, the T&D system exists solely to deliver power to energy consumers.
Chapter 2 looks at consumer demand for electric power. It explains Two-Q, a concept of
looking at both customer demand and system capability as composed of two dimensions:
the quantity (peak kW load, system capability) of power needed, and the quality of power
need (value of connectivity, reliability of service). Successful electric utilities keep
spending low while managing to provide satisfactory levels of both.
Chapter 3 looks at consumer demand as it looks to the power system, as electric load.
This chapter covers basic electric load concepts such as types of electric load (resistive,
impedance), appliance duty cycles and their interaction with one another and weather, load
curve shapes and factors, coincidence of load and diversity of peaks, and measurement of
demand and load curve shape.

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Chapter 4 is a basic introduction to electric service reliability. It provides basic

definitions and concepts and builds a foundation for the considerable amount of reliabilitybased planning and engineering material later in the book. The chapter describes the use of
reliability indices including the purposes and pitfalls of comparison and benchmarking.
Chapter 5 reviews traditional engineering economics from the perspective of the
distribution planner, mostly time-value-of-money analysis and its pragmatic application as a
decision-making tool. Although many utilities use newer asset management approaches to
prioritize their spending, traditional engineering economics are still used pervasively in the
analysis and cost evaluation that leads up to the decision-making system, regardless of what
"management paradigm" the utility is using.
Chapter 6 is perhaps the first that experienced planners will find a break from the past. It
looks at project and spending prioritization methods in some detail. While it deals
comprehensively with the traditional least-cost approach, the chapter is definitely focused
on modern "bang for the buck" methods as used in reliability-based planning, in budgetconstrained situations, and for "asset management." Both traditional and new analytical
methods as well as processes and procedures for their use are discussed and compared.
Chapters 7 and 8 provide tutorial and reference material on equipment aging, failure
rates, and in particular how aging infrastructures impact the reliability of a power system.
Failure rate does increase with age. But as these chapters show, very old equipment is
seldom the problem. It is usually equipment in "late middle age" that proves most
problematic.
Chapter 9 covers load reach, a measure of the distance that a circuit or system can move
power while providing suitable service voltage, and one of the author's favorite distribution
planning tools. Many power engineering techniques optimize equipment selection and
design on a per unit basis, which for circuits means a per foot, per kilometer, or similar
basis. Such methods represent a current-related optimization approach and are quite
important. By contrast, load reach can be thought of as a voltage or voltage drop
optimization of a system. It permits a planner to look at the overall needs of a feeder system
- power must be moved from substations out to the mid-point between substations. Circuit
designs and specifications that have sufficient load reach to meet this distance need
efficiently, but no more, generally prove most economical and reliable. The best performing
circuits are optimized on both a voltage and current basis. The chapter also addresses voltVAR performance and planning, something closely related to load-reach concepts and
attaining optimum voltage performance.
Chapter 10 is a tutorial on distributed resources (DR), which includes distributed
generation (DG), distributed energy storage (DS), and demand-side management (DSM).
Although not part of classical T&D planning, DR is increasingly a factor in many utility
decisions and is a required alternative that planners must consider in some regulatory
jurisdictions. But the author has included this chapter for another reason, too. DR methods
also include customer-side methods such as UPS and backup generation (a form of DG),
that principally affect service reliability. From a Two-Q perspective their capability pertains
mostly to the quality, not quantity, dimension. They are therefore of great interest to
modern planners looking for maximum bang for the buck in terms of reliability.
The second part of the book, Chapters 11 through 19, constitutes a detailed look at the
design, performance, and economics of a power distribution system, based on two
overriding principles. The first is the systems approach: sub-transmission, substation,
feeder, and service levels are integrated layers of the system. These disparate levels must
work well together and their overall performance and cost should be optimized. That comes
as much from sound coordination of each level with the others as it does from optimization
of any one level.

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

The second concept is cost. While the aforementioned changes in financial priorities
have caused many utilities to optimize spending (cash flow), not long-term cost as in the
past, detailed and explicit knowledge of what various alternatives will truly cost, now and in
the future, is vital for sound management of both the system and the utility's finances no
matter what paradigm is driving the budget prioritization. Therefore, Chapters 11-19 focus
a great deal of attention on determining all costs.
Chapters 11 and 12 look at conductor and transformer economic sizing in some detail,
beginning with basic equipment sizing economics in Chapter 11. The approaches discussed
there will be familiar to most planners. However, Chapter 12's extension of these concepts
to conductor or equipment type set design, which involves finding an optimal group of line
types or equipment sizes to use in building a distribution system, will be new to many.
Primary feeder circuit layout and performance is examined in Chapters 13 through 15.
Although there are exceptions in order to put important points in context, generally Chapter
13 deals with the equipment selection, layout, and performance of individual circuits, while
Chapter 15 looks at multi-feeder planning - for groups of feeders serving a widespread
area. Chapter 14 looks at reliability and reliability planning at the feeder level, and serves as
a conceptual and methodological bridge between Chapters 13 and 15, for while distribution
reliability begins with a sound design for each individual feeder, it is quite dependent on
inter-feeder contingency support and switching, which is the multi-feeder planning venue.
These three chapters also present and compare the various philosophies on system layout,
including "American" or "European" layout; large trunk versus multi-branch; loop, radial,
or network systems; single or dual-voltage feeder systems; and other variations.
Chapter 16 looks at distribution substations and the sub-transmission lines that route
power to them. Although they are not considered part of "distribution" in many utilities,
coordination of sub-transmission, substation, and distribution feeders is a critical part of the
system approach's optimization of overall performance and cost. Substations can be
composed of various types of equipment, laid out in many different ways, as described here.
Cost, capacity, and reliability vary depending on equipment and design, as do flexibility for
future design to accommodate uncertainty in future needs.
Chapter 17 takes a "systems approach" perspective to the performance and economics
of the combined sub-transmission/substation/feeder system. Optimal performance comes
from a properly coordinated selection of voltages, equipment types, and layout at all three
levels. This balance of design among the three levels, and its interaction with load density,
geographic constraints, and other design elements, is explored and evaluated in a series of
sample system design variations of distribution system performance, reliability, and
economy.
Chapter 18 focuses on locational planning and capacity optimization of substations,
looking at the issues involved, the types of costs and constraints planners must deal with,
and the ways that decisions and different layout rules change the resulting system
performance and economy. No other aspect of power delivery system layout is more
important than siting and sizing of substations. Substation sites are both the delivery points
for the sub-transmission system and the source points for the feeder system. Thus even
though the substation level typically costs less than either of the two other levels, its siting
and sizing largely dictate the design of those two other levels and often has a very
significant financial impact if done poorly.
Chapter 19 looks at the service (secondary) level. Although composed of relatively
small "commodity" elements, cumulatively this closest-to-the-customer level is surprisingly
complex, and represents a sizable investment, one that benefits from careful equipment
specification and design standards.

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

The third portion of the book, Chapters 20-25, discusses the tools and skills that modern
distribution planners need to do their work. In the 21st century, nearly all of these tools
make heavy use of computers, not just for analysis, but for data mining and decision
support. Regardless, this portion of the book begins with what many planners may not
consider to be tools: the engineering and operating guidelines (standards) and the criteria
that set limits on and specify the various engineered aspects of a T&D system. Chapters 20
and 21 focus respectively on voltage, loading, equipment and design guidelines, and
reliability, maintainability and service quality guidelines and criteria. Their overall
perspective is that criteria and guidelines are tools whose primary purposes should be to
assist planners in performing their job quickly. The more traditional (and obsolete) view
was that guidelines (standards) and criteria existed primarily to assure adequate service
quality and equipment lifetime. Modem utilities explicitly engineer aspects like voltage,
flicker, and reliability of service, so that role has been somewhat superceded. Regardless, an
important point is that good guidelines and criteria can greatly speed the planning process, a
critical point for modern utilities that must "do more with less."
Chapter 22 presents electrical performance analysis methods - engineering techniques
used to assess the voltage, current, power factor and loading performance of distribution
systems. The chapter focuses on application, not algorithms, covering the basic concepts,
models, methods and approaches used to represent feeders and evaluate their performance
and cost in short-range planning and feeder analysis.
Chapter 23 focuses on reliability analysis methods - engineering techniques used to
assess the expected reliability performance of distribution systems, including frequency and
duration of interruptions seen by customers, and severity and frequency of voltage sags on
the system. Focus is on application and use of modern, predictive reliability engineering
methods, not on algorithms and theory. Most important from the standpoint of modem
distribution planners, dependable and proven reliability-engineering methods do exist and
are effective. To an electric utility trying to meet regulatory targets and customer
expectations in the most effective business manner possible, these methods are vitally
important.
Chapter 24 looks at decision-making and optimization tools and methods for
distribution planning. Although modern planners depend on computerized methods for
nearly all planning, there is a substantial difference between the computerized performance
analysis methods of Chapters 22 and 23, and the automated planning methods presented
here. Automated planning tools can streamline the work flow while also leading to better
distribution plans. Most are based on application of optimization methods, which, while
mathematically complicated, are simple in concept. The chapter presents a brief, practical,
tutorial on optimization, on the various methods available, and on how to pick a method
that will work for a given problem. As in Chapters 22 and 23, the focus is on practical
application, not on algorithms. Automated methods for both feeder-system planning and
substation-siting and sizing are discussed, along with typical pitfalls and recommended
ways to avoid them.
Chapter 25 looks at spatial load forecasting tools and methods. All T&D plans begin
with some concept of what the future demand patterns will be: the forecast is the initiator of
the planning process - anticipation of demand levels that cannot be served satisfactorily is
the driver behind capital expansion planning. Characteristics of load growth that can be
used in forecasting are presented, along with rules of thumb for growth analysis. Various
forecasting procedures are delineated, along with a comparison of their applicability,
accuracy, and data and resource requirements.
The final portion of the book, Chapters 26-30, focuses on planning and the planning
process itself: how planners and their utilities can use the tools covered in Chapters 20-25,

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

and organize themselves and their work flow, and interact with other aspects and groups
within a utility, so that ultimately they both produce and execute good plans for the system
and accommodate the other needs that the utility has with respect to the distribution system
(mostly safety and business needs).
Planning processes and approaches have undergone considerable change since the first
edition of this book was published, and are in a state of continual change as this is written.
This portion of the book is nearly all new. It presents an integrated look at the three largest
changes affecting distribution planners, and how they can deal with their combined impact.
These changes are the increasing emphasis on reliability and achieving reliability targets, an
increasingly business-basis in all spending and resource decisions, and far less emphasis on
long-range system planning. Reliability is important because in the 21st century it has
become and will remain an explicitly measured and tracked aspect of utility performance,
something the utility (and its planners) must engineer and manage well. The increasing
business basis is due to a host of factors discussed in various parts of this book, but its net
impact on planners is to change the context within which their recommendations are made:
modern utilities make all spending decisions on a business-case basis.
The shift to more short-range and less long-range focus is not, as often thought, due to a
narrow "profit now" business focus by utilities. Instead, it reflects a shift in the importance
of both engineering and business considerations. The higher utilization ratios and the
greater emphasis on reliability faced by modern utilities mean that planning mistakes are
more costly and may take longer to fix. "Getting it right, now" is vital to a modern T&D
utility: very good, rather than just adequate, short-range planning is more important than
ever. Beyond this, modern business planning and management methods have proven very
successful at reducing long-term risk and retaining long-term flexibility: optimizing or even
organizing long-range T&D plans is simply not as critical to success as it once was.
Chapter 26 begins by looking at the distribution planning process itself. Despite all the
changes, the core of the planning process is much as it always was, even if the metrics used
and context within which it works have changed dramatically. Planning still involves
setting goals, identifying and evaluating options, and selecting the best option. Each of
these planning steps is examined in detail, along with its common pitfalls. Short- and longrange planning are defined and their different purposes and procedures studied. Finally, the
functional steps involved in T&D planning, and the tools they use, are presented in detail.
Chapter 27 looks at how the forecasting tools covered in Chapter 25 are used, and how
planners organize themselves and their forecast-translated-to-capability-need methodology
so that they can efficiently accommodate their company's requirements. In a modern highutilization ratio, just-in-time utility, correctly anticipating future needs could be said to be
the critical part of planning. Fully half of all recent large-scale outages and blackouts have
been due, at least in part, to deficiencies that started with poor recognition or anticipation of
future system capability needs.
Chapter 28 looks at balancing reliability against spending. Many power engineers
buying this book will consider this its key chapter. It presents the basics of reliability-based
distribution planning including processes and procedures aimed at achieving specific
reliability targets. But at most electric delivery utilities there is more involved than just a
reliability-based approach and an explicit focus on attaining reliability targets. To be
successful, reliability-based planning must be interfaced into the "business" framework of
an electric utility. This includes a three-way melding of the traditional T&D planning tools
and methods (Chapters 17, 20, 23, 24 and 26), reliability-based analysis engineering
(Chapters 14, 21 and 23) and "bang for the buck" prioritization methodologies and budgetconstrained planning methods covered in Chapter 6. When successfully integrated into a
utility's investment, system, and operational planning functions, this is often called asset

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

management. Since these concepts are new, and represent a considerable step change to
most utilities, the chapter also includes a simple but effective "cookbook" on CERI (CostEffective Reliability Improvement) projects used to bootstrap a utility's move toward
explicit cost- or spending-based management of reliability.
Chapter 29 is a considerable departure from previous chapters and sure to be somewhat
controversial and discomforting to some planners. It discusses objectivity and accuracy in
distribution planning, frankly and explicitly addressing the fact that some planning studies
are deliberately biased in both their analysis and their reporting, so that they do not present
a truly balanced representation and comparison of alternatives based on their merits. As
shown, there is a legitimate, and in fact critical, need for such reports in the power industry,
and there is nothing unethical about a planning study that declares its intent to "make a
case" for a particular option with an advantageous set of assumptions and analysis. But the
sad truth is that some planning studies contain hidden bias, because of unintended mistakes,
or deliberate efforts to misrepresent a truthful evaluation. Part of this chapter is a "tutorial
on cheating" - giving rules and examples of how to disguise a very biased analysis so that it
gives the appearance of objectivity and balance. This is then used to show how planners can
review a report for both accuracy and objectivity, and how to detect both unintended
mistakes as well as bias that has been carefully hidden.
Chapter 30 concludes with a summary and integrating perspective on the book's key
points as well as a set of guidelines and recommendations for modern distribution planners.
Along with Chapter 1, it provides a good "executive summary" to both T&D systems and
planning for a modern utility.
This book, along with a companion volume (Spatial Electric Load Forecasting, Marcel
Dekker, 2002), took more than a decade to complete. I wish to thank many good friends
and colleagues, including especially Jim Bouford, Richard Brown, Mike Engel, James
Northcote-Green, Hahn Tram, Gary Rackliffe, Randy Schrieber and Greg Welch, for their
encouragement and willing support. I also want to thank Rita Lazazzaro and Lila Harris at
Marcel Dekker, Inc., for their involvement and efforts to make this book a quality effort.
Most of all, I wish to thank my wife, Lorrin Philipson, for the many hours of review and
editorial work she unselfishly gave in support of this book, and for her constant, loving
support, without which this book would never have been completed.
H. Lee Willis

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Contents
Series Introduction
Preface

Power Delivery Systems

1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.10

Introduction
T&D System's Mission
Reliability of Power Delivery
The "Natural Laws of T&D"
Levels of the T&D System
Utility Distribution Equipment
T&D Costs
Types of Distribution System Design
The Systems Approach and Two-Q Planning
Summary of Key Points
References and Bibliography

Consumer Demand and Electric Load

2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6

The Two Qs: Quantity and Quality of Power

Quantity of Power Demand: Electric Load
Electric Consumer Demand for Quality of Power
The Market Comb and Consumer Values
Two-Q Analysis: Quantity and Quality Versus Cost
Conclusion and Summary
References

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Electric Load, Coincidence, and Behavior

3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4

Power System Reliability

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6

Introduction
Costs
Time Value of Money
Variability of Costs
Conclusion
References

Evaluation, Prioritization, and Approval

6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7

Introduction
Outages Cause Interruptions
Reliability Indices
Comparison of Reliability Indices Among Utilities
Benchmarking Reliability
Conclusion and Summary
References and Further Reading

Economics and Evaluation of Cost

5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5

Introduction
Peak Load, Diversity, and Load Curve Behavior
Measuring and Modeling Load Curves
Summary
References

Decisions and Commitments

Evaluation, Comparison, Prioritization, and Approval
Traditional Regulated Utility Least-Cost Planning
The Benefit/Cost Ratio Paradigm
Incremental Benefit/Cost Evaluation
Profit-Based Planning Paradigms
Summary, Comments, and Conclusion
References and Bibliography

Equipment Ratings, Loadings, Lifetime, and Failure

7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5

Introduction
Capacity Ratings and Lifetime
Aging, Deterioration, and Damage
Measures to Improve Equipment Reliability and Life
Conclusion and Summary
For Further Reading

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Equipment Failures and System Performance

8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4

Introduction
Equipment Failure Rate Increases with Age
A Look at Failure and Age in a Utility System
Conclusion and Summary
References

Load Reach and Volt-VAR Engineering

9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4

Introduction
Voltage Behavior on a Distribution System
Load Reach and Distribution Capability
Load Reach, the Systems Approach, and Current and
Voltage Performance Optimization
9.5 Managing Voltage Drop on Distribution Systems
9.6 Volt-VAR Control and Correction
9.7 Summary of Key Points
References

10 Distributed Resources
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.7

Managing Two-Q Demand on the Consumer Side

Energy and Demand Management Methods
Conservation Voltage Reduction
Distributed Generation
Electric Energy Storage Systems
Distributed Resource Cost Evaluation
Summary
Bibliography

11 Basic Line Segment and Transformer Sizing Economics

11.1 Introduction
11.2 Distribution Lines
11.3 Transformers
11.4 Basic Equipment Selection Economics
11.5 Conclusion
References and Bibliography
12 Choosing the Right Set of Line and Equipment Sizes
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Using Economic Loading and Voltage Drop Well
12.3 Economy and Performance of a Conductor Set
12.4 Conductor Set Design: Fundamental Aspects
12.5 Recommended Method for Conductor Set Design
12.6 Standard Transformer Sets
12.7 Conclusion
References and Bibliography

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

13 Distribution Feeder Layout

13.1
13.2
13.3
13.4
13.5

Introduction
The Feeder System
Radial and Loop Feeder Layout
Dual-Voltage Feeders
Summary of Key Points
References

14 Feeder Layout, Switching, and Reliability

14.1
14.2
14.3
14.4
14.5
14.6
14.7

Introduction
Designing Reliability into the Primary Feeder (MV) Level
Feeder System Strength
Contingency-Based Versus Reliability-Based Planning
Contingency Support and Switching Design
Protection and Sectionalization of the Feeder System
Summary of Key Points
References and Bibliography

15 Multi-Feeder Layout
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.5
15.6

Introduction
How Many Feeders in a Substation Service Area?
Planning the Feeder System
Planning for Load Growth
Formulae for Estimating Feeder System Cost
Conclusion and Summary
References

16 Distribution Substations
16.1
16.2
16.3
16.4
16.5
16.6
16.7
16.8
16.9

Introduction
High-Side Substation Equipment and Layout
Transformer Portion of a Substation
Low-Side Portion of a Substation
The Substation Site
Substation Costs, Capacity, and Reliability
Substation Standardization
Substation Planning and the Concept of "Transformer Units"
Conclusion and Summary
References and Bibliography

17 Distribution System Layout

17.1
17.2
17.3
17.4
17.5

Introduction
The T&D System in Its Entirety
Design Interrelationships
Example of a System Dominated by Voltage Drop, Not Capacity
Conclusion and Summary
References and Bibliography

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

18 Substation Siting and System Expansion Planning

18.1
18.2
18.3
18.4
18.5
18.6
18.7
18.8

Introduction
Substation Location, Capacity, and Service Area
Substation Siting and Sizing Economics
Substation-Level Planning: The Art
Guidelines to Achieve Low Cost in Substation Siting and Sizing
Substation-Level Planning: The Science
Planning with Modular Substations
Summary: The Most Important Point About Substation-Level Planning
References and Bibliography

19 Service Level Layout and Planning

19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.5
19.6
19.7

Introduction
The Service Level
Types of Service Level Layout
Load Dynamics, Coincidence, and Their Interaction with the Service Level
Service-Level Planning and Layout
High Reliability Service-Level Systems
Conclusion
References

20 Planning Goals and Criteria

20.1
20.2
20.3
20.4
20.5
20.6

Introduction
Voltage and Customer Service Criteria and Guidelines
Other Distribution Design and Operating Guidelines
Load Ratings and Loading Guidelines
Equipment and Design Criteria
Summary of Key Points
References and Bibliography

21 Reliability-Related Criteria and Their Use

21.1
21.2
21.3
21.4
21.5

Introduction
Reliability Metrics, Targets, and Criteria
Practical Issues of Reliability-Based Criteria
Approaches and Criteria for Targeted Reliability Planning
Summary of Key Points
References and Bibliography

22 Distribution Circuit Electrical Analysis

22.1
22.2
22.3
22.4
22.5
22.6
22.7

Introduction
Models, Algorithms, and Computer Programs
Circuit Models
Models of Electric Load
Types of Electrical Behavior System Models
Coincidence and Load Flow Interaction
Conclusion and Summary
References and Bibliography

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

23 Distribution System Reliability Analysis Methods

23.1
23.2
23.3
23.4
23.5
23.6
23.7

Introduction
Contingency-Based Planning Methods
Engineering Reliability Directly
Analytical Distribution System Reliability Assessment
Important Aspects of Reliability Assessment
Reliability Simulation Studies and Financial Risk Assessment
Conclusion and Key Points
References and Bibliography

24 Automated Planning Tools and Methods

24.1
24.2
24.3
24.4
24.5
24.6

Introduction
Fast Ways to Find Good Alternatives
Automated Feeder Planning Methods
Substation-Level and Strategic Planning Tools
Application of Planning Tools
Conclusion and Summary
References and Bibliography

25 T&D Load Forecasting Methods

25.1
25.2
25.3
25.4
25.5
25.6
25.7

Spatial Load Forecasting

Load Growth Behavior
Important Elements of a Spatial Forecast
Trending Methods
Simulation Methods for Spatial Load Forecasting
Hybrid Trending-Simulation Methods
Conclusion and Summary of Key Points
References and Bibliography

26 Planning and the T&D Planning Process

26.1
26.2
26.3
26.4
26.5
26.6
26.7

Introduction
Goals, Priorities, and Direction
Tactical Planning: Finding the Best Alternative
Short- Versus Long-Range Planning
Uncertainty and Multi-Scenario Planning
The Power Delivery Planning Process
Summary and Key Points
References and Bibliography

27 Practical Aspects of T&D Load Forecasting

27.1
27.2
27.3
27.4
27.5

The First Step in T&D Planning

Weather Normalization and Design Criteria
Selection of a Forecast Method
Application of Spatial Forecast Methods
Conclusion and Summary
Bibliography and References

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

28 Balancing Reliability and Spending

28.1
28.2
28.3
28.4
28.5
28.6
28.7
28.8
28.9

Introduction
The Fundamental Concepts
Optimizing Reliability Cost Effectiveness
CERI - A Practical Method to "Bootstrap" Reliability Improvement
Required Tools and Resources for Reliability Planning
"Equitableness" Issues in Reliability Optimization
Approaches to Setting and Planning Reliability Targets
Asset Management
Conclusion and Summary
References and Bibliography

29 Objectivity, Bias, and Accuracy in Planning

29.1
29.2
29.3
29.4
29.5
29.6
29.7
29.8

Introduction and Purpose of this Chapter

Objective Evaluation, Proponent Study, or Simply Poor Work?
Ways that Bias Makes Its Way into a T&D Planning Study
The "Rules" Used to Bias Planning Studies in an Unseen Manner
Areas Where Bias or Mistakes Are Often Introduced into a Study
Examples of Bogus, Proponent, and Masked Studies
Guidelines for Detecting, Finding, and Evaluating Bias
Summary and Conclusion: Forewarned is Forearmed
References

30 Key Points, Guidelines, Recommendations

30.1
30.2
30.3
30.4

Introduction
On Distribution Systems
On Utilities and Utility Practices
On Planning Well
References

Copyright 2004 by Marcel Dekker, Inc. All Rights Reserved.