Kanook – April 26th, 2010

Three regions of Iran high on the worry list of Israeli and United States, one where
Iran produces uranium hexafluoride gas (“Hex”) which is a gaseous compound used
in the uranium enrichment process that manufactures fuel of nuclear reactors and
nuclear weapons, another region that enriches the gas produced at the previous
location, and the last being a heavy-water research reactor which is scheduled to
come on line in 2012 – all three estimated by the experts in the west to make
weapons-grade plutonium.
The population in the west was mildly effected by the up-start Eyjafjallajokull
Icelandic volcano when it created a airline chaotic event – millions of travelers
jerked around like so much chaff in a wind storm, while the trickle-down effect
caused billion dollar losses across the economy. If you, like most in the West
believe that you wouldn’t be affected by a military conflict in Iran – think again.
For certain, happening immediately will be the disruption of travel, in particular
commercial aviation in the Middle East – this leading to a tremendous loss in
revenue (I talk revenue since the financial houses which control the world is
something most Westerns understand), this loss in a localized area will move swiftly
raising air-fares across the world, (they have to make up their revenue stream
somewhere). The ensuing panic amongst foreigners in the Middle East will create a
log-jam of humanity trying to escape the resulting chaos of war – with no available
transport by air or sea, the highways will be plugged and border crossing will
become war-zones in themselves as a mixture of foreign travelers and the countries
inhabitants seek safety.
In addition to Isfahan (pop 3,430,353), Natanz (pop 39,964), and Arak (pop
511,127) is the Qom (pop 1,042,309) site one of Iran’s centrifuge fabrication sites
and is also considered holy by the Shi’a Islamics being the home of the shrine of
Fatema Mae’sume the sister of Iman ‘Ali ibn Musa Rida (Persian Iman Reza – 789-
816 AD) a city that contains the largest center for Shi’a scholarship in the world. If
all four of these locations plus other fabrication sites (unnamed) are attacked the
resulting aftermath will clog the region with untold effects.
Using the 1991 Gulf War example of the burning of the 700 plus Kuwaiti oil fields,
the environmental damage for the entire Gulf region would be massive, including
the oil field production cutbacks which will directly affect the West gasoline
reserve…and when you hit the pocketbooks of the West’s drivers you’re messing
with a powerful force. It is assumed that Iran would be overwhelmed and would be
ineffective with its response, this is a wrong assumption as they demonstrated this
last week of their ability to launch mid-range missiles (331 miles) and some of their
long-range missiles capable of striking Israel (900 miles). It is considered a
certainty that Iran will do its level best to interrupt the shipping along the Gulf
Coast, with direct shut down of ports in Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab
Emirates, translation a severe interruption of all traffic, air or sea.
Analysis done by the expert’s show that the “plume”, depending on the length
and severity of the attacks would contaminate the air and sea corridors, along with
this unintentional and intentional contamination of fresh water supplies – this would
have a long-lasting effect.
And then there is the possibility of the conflict escalating into a nuclear level,
where the West believes that Iran has chemical and biological weapons and is in the
process of developing its weapons grade nuclear capabilities. Keep in mind that the
new USA nuclear doctrine holds that countries not adhering to the NPT (Non-
Proliferation Treaty) including Iran could be targeted with nuclear weapons in case
of military conflict – nuclear weapons as you have seen cause huge clouds of smoke
and nuclear dust, this will affect the area for decades to come, and also it is 99.9%
certain that Israel has nuclear weapons grade material – which will be targeted by
the Iranian long-range missiles.
It is not a far stretch for the imagination to see the conflict turning into a global
war as lines are drawn in the sand, and in short order. It will not be another Iraq or
Afghanistan, it will escalate very quickly when the oil rich regions are shut down and
the world economy collapses – it will balloon out of control and will mushroom into
regional conflicts sooner than most expect. Even if there is a quick close of the
direct action, the lingering aftereffects will move far beyond the timeline afforded
by most experts.
The assumption being that if the nations in the West paint the nation of Iran as an
odd-ball out nation, worldwide opinion will be sharply divided – especially as the
victors march through the streets as they have in Iraq – this is assuming someone
wins. And if it turns into another Korea, the world will inherit another stalemate that
will be 1000 times more effective in disrupting world affairs, simply because of its
location to a primary source of the world’s economy – oil!
Locally the religious fanatics will run amuck, killing at will and recruiting suicide
bombers in mass, it makes no difference what religion all will feel they have a god-
given right to avenge the attack on their religion, Christian, Judaism, Sunni, Shi’s,
Orthodox, it will make no difference – and the West will sit there fat dumb and
happy wondering if there might have been another solution.

On February 14th while attending the US-Islamic World Forum in Doha, Qatar
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said publicly that Iran “doesn’t directly
threaten the United States.” Her press following commonly known as the
“Fawning Corporate Media” or “FCM” conveniently lost this temporary loss of sanity
in Mrs Clinton, not reporting her statement in any detail in the Western Press.
To be fair her rambling comments said, “Despite President Barack Obama’s
reaching out to the Iranian leaders, he had elicited no sign they were willing to
engage. Part of the goal – not the only goal, but part of the goal---that we were
pursuing was to try to influence the Iranian decision regarding whether or not to
pursue a nuclear weapon. And, as I said in my speech, you know, the evidence is
accumulating that is exactly what they are trying to do, which is deeply concerning,
because it doesn’t directly threaten the United States, but it does threaten a lot of
our friends, allies, and partners here in this region and beyond.”
The Prime Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Al-Thani when asked about,
“the danger that the Secretary just alluded to…if Iran gets the bomb.” Al-Thani
responded that the “official answer” that Iran is not seeking to have a nuclear
bomb; instead, the Iranians, “explained to us that their intention is to use these
facilities for their peaceful reactors for electricity and medical use…We have good
relations with Iran, and we have continuous dialogue with the Iranians.” He then
added, “the best thing for this problem is a direct dialogue between the United
States and Iran, whereas dialogue through a messenger is not good!” He then
stressed, “For a small country, stability and peace are very important,” he also said
that he was at least as afraid of what Israel and the United States might do, as what
Iran might do.
What about Israel and their nuclear weapons? Consider former French President
Jacques Chirac, as perhaps the best-known governmental leader to ridicule the
notion that Israel, with between 200 and 300 nuclear weapons in its arsenal would
even consider Iran’s possession of a nuclear bomb as a world-wide threat. Whereas
the civilized world is slowly realizing that Israel bases their assumption on the
manner in which they have been treating the Palestinians, and know in their
thinking that if Iran gets a nuclear weapon Iran will hold a key to getting the Israeli’s
to back off in their treatment of the population in Gaza.
But then again, on January 29th, 2007, Chirac put it this way: “Where will it (Iran)
drop this bomb? On Israel? The bomb would not have gone 200 meters into the
atmosphere before Tehran would be razed, thus the possession of a nuclear bomb
by Iran would not be very dangerous.” He was forced to retract this statement on
the 30th, “I should rather have paid attention to what I was saying and understood
that perhaps I was on record…I don’t think I spoke of Israel yesterday…Maybe I did
so, but I don’t think so…I have no recollection of that!”
It appears the long arm of Israel visited the former President during the night, and
twisted his thinking in that it was incorrect to even insinuate that Israel had nuclear
weapons. I find this truly remarkable, especially when it comes to keeping “secret”
Israel’s possession on nuclear grade weapons and that it “might” possess one of the
world’s most sophisticated arsenals.
For another example of its long arm of persuasion, shortly after Obama became
President, veteran reported Helen Thomas asked him if he knew of “any” country in
the Middle East that has nuclear weapons, and the new President awkwardly
responded that he didn’t want to “speculate.”
A question issued by Scott Wilson (Washington Post) generated a “deer caught in
the headlights” answer on the 13th of April, 2010 when he asked if Obama would
“call on Israel to declare its nuclear program and sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty?”
The United States President who is normally articulate in his responses, stutter
and shook like a little boy caught with his hands not being where they were
supposed to be, saying, “And, as far as Israel goes, I’m not going to comment on
their program!” You can see this wonderful clip at:
http://www.mediaite.com/online/president-obama-dodges-question-about-israels-
nuke-program/
The following day the Jerusalem Post wrote, “President Dodges Question about
Israel’s Nuclear Program, Obama took a few seconds to formulate his response, but
quickly took the weight off Israel and called on all countries to abide by the NPT.”
On the same day, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told the world, especially
those who are our friends and allies, that Israel will NOT be pressured into signing
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. And that is that! And from that stumbling day
by the US President, not one word or comment has been made by the Washington
Post, mums the word!
President Obama felt obligated to add to his response to Scott Wilson when he
added, “my beliefs about the NPT represent a consistent policy of prior US
administrations,” this to avoid any adverse reaction from the “Likud Lobby” averting
even the slightest suggestion that he might be ratcheting up a notch or two that he
was applying pressure to Israel to acknowledge its nuclear arsenal and to endorse
the NPT.
Historically this is the way of the Hebrew, beginning with Abraham lying to his
father, to the Pharaoh of Egypt and to his son when he was going to sacrifice him at
the altar, he is forgiven by his God and praised by the people of Israel – making
today’s spinner of stories small potatoes.
Some five-years-ago when Senator Richard Lugar (then chair of the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee) was asked why Iran would think it has to acquire
nuclear weapons…quick as a flash he responded, “Well, you know, Israel has…” He
caught himself and stopped in mid-sentence with a pause following that was more
than evident it was embarrassing. He then recovered and made a vain attempt at
limiting the slip of the tongue. His face seen full screen is all screwed up and he
searches vainly for word that will fill the gap after “Israel has…” Finally he spits out
with a gleeful look on his face, “Well, Israel is alleged to have a nuclear capability.”
Here is a man that was the head of the Foreign Relations Committee from 1985 to
1987; and then again from 2003 to 2007 – and he didn’t know if they did or did not?
Only the West would buy into such nonsense, whereas the nations in the Middle
East are not as gullible especially when it comes to the words from a statesman
from the West…in the back of your mind most of you are thinking, “Why Lugar is
one of the most honest statesmen you’ll ever meet.” Not when it comes to Israel,
the West turns its face at the “smack you in the face hypocritical” governments of
the West – when it comes to their pet Israel, the land they created at the end of
World War II because no-one, I repeat no-one want the victims of the Holocaust in
their backyard. It is the primary goal of the governments in the West to “protect”
the ambiguity of the Israeli nuclear arsenal…a priority!
It is NOT the priority of Iranians, Syrians, and others in the Middle East to provide
the same protection, far from it!
 Strangely someone wrote in a campaign speech given by Obama on June 3rd, 2008
where he said, “Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel and it must remain
undivided.” In a sense he threw “raw red meat” to the “Likud Lobby,” he had
touched on a no-no subject which he had to cover up during the next few days
when he said, when asked, if was saying that the Palestinians had NO future claim
to the city, “Well, obviously, it’s going to be up to the parties to negotiate a range of
these issues. And Jerusalem will be part of those negotiations.”
How wrong he was and is, there is no negotiating with Israel over Jerusalem, they
consider it their sole domain come Hell or high-water, and it is evident they chose
Hell – simply the only solution looming in the horizon is out and out war between
the Palestinians and the Israeli’s. The latest push by the Israeli’s to take over the
Muslim holy shrines in Jerusalem is an example, whereas the police locking out the
Palestinians from their mosques and shrines in turn causing a street fight, is seen as
a Palestinian response to a simple mistake by the PM with their response
condemned in Israeli newspaper painting every last one of the Palestinians as world
criminals that should be dealt with swiftly and forcibly, if a few die along the way so-
be-it, the killers are “God’s chosen” and can do no wrong.
This attitude the Jews carry over into any affairs with Iran, they will negotiate with
Iran until Hell freezes over, unless they set up their own government in Iran and
show them the gilded path towards democracy as they have in Israel with the
Palestinians – dictatorship under the Star of David!
CENTCOM Commander General David Petraeus told the world that total
identification with Israel is costing the lives of American soldiers, no matter their
location. He also said that the United States is creating the impression that it is
weak, incapable of standing up to Israel – taking the position that it is not only
perceived as weak politically, but that it military posture in the region is to the point
of being non-existent – yet when the United States National Security Advisor Jones
showed no concern on this and heavily hyped the treat from Iran, he is seen as
mimicking former VP Dick Cheney’s rhetoric before the attack on Iraq – now just
substituting the “q” in Iraq for the “n” in Iran. He screams about the insolence of
Iran in “Iran’s continued defiance of its international obligations on its nuclear
program and its support of terrorism represents a significant regional and global
threat. A nuclear-armed Iran could transform the landscape of the Middle East…
fatally wounding the global non-proliferation regime and emboldening terrorists and
extremist who threaten the United States and our allies.”
The rest of the world, outside of Israel and the administration of the United States,
are making the assumption that even one nuclear device in Iran would “threaten”
NOT Israeli’s security interest but the position they enjoy today whereas they can
attack Lebanon, Syria or Gaza confident that there is no effective force to counter
their attacks – and it becomes very clear they don’t want the likes of Iran looming
over their shoulders when they commit their atrocities against their neighbors. As
for showing defiance to international rules, Israel violates three UN resolutions
everyday when it comes to their neighbors north of them in Lebanon – they do it
with impunity while thumbing their noses at International Law – and the United
States remains silent.
It is important to remember that Israel is not all “hard-line ultra-conservatives”
like the Likud Coalition, whereas the other side of the population might take it upon
themselves to get the Hell out of Dodge, with them a large percentage of the
population that has developed its economic base, especially in high-tech. These
highly-qualified Israeli’s leaving would create an unmistakable vacuum in Israel’s
economy, but Netanyahu’s policy seems to really not care, and yet he is running the
risk of losing all his coalition, he has created by betting that Washington will support
him if he attacks Iran and Iran retaliates, and when he turns to look the United
States has stayed home. As long as Obama remains silent vs issuing blunt
language telling dear Mr. Netanyahu to cool it, Netanyahu will continue to see
Obama as a weakling who can be played politically.
For instance, would Netanyahu judge that Obama lacked the political spine to
have US forces in control of Iraqi airspace shoot down Israeli aircraft on their way to
Iran? A great number of analysts, mostly ultra-conservative see Obama backing
down and letting the warplanes proceed to their targets – and when Iran retaliates
Obama would feel compelled to come to Israel’s defense and finish the job by
devastating what was left of Iran’s nuclear and military capacity – again these same
analysts believe that politically Obama would have little choice in the matter but to
defend Israel.
World wide opinion believes that Netanyahu doesn’t anticipate a strong reaction
from President Obama, who as of late, has demonstrated time and time again that
he is a politician and not a statesman. Supporting this world wide opinion are the
actions of his own National Security Advisor James Jones who is constantly sending
out signals that can only encourage Netanyahu to do his will, confident that Obama
will scurry and bust his butt to avoid the domestic political fallout that would accrue,
hopefully dodging any vision that might show that he less than fully supportive of
Israel.
The prevailing opinion is that Obama should stand up and tell Netanyahu, “You
attack Iran and you’re on your own!” 99.9% of the world is not holding their breath
in hopes of seeing this done.