Andrs Castro Arajo

3 de noviembre de 2014
Mahoney, James. (2000). Path dependence in historical sociology. Theory and
society, 29(4), 507-548.

Argumento
En este artculo Mahoney busca definir claramente el concepto de path
dependence para que ste adquiera la importancia que merece dentro de la
sociologa histrica y no termine convirtindose en una moda pasajera.
In this article I argue that path dependence characterizes specifically those historical
sequences in which contingent events set into motion institutional patterns or event
chains that have deterministic properties. The identification of path dependence
therefore involves both tracing a given outcome back to a particular set of historical
events, and showing how these events are themselves contingent occurrences that
cannot be explained on the basis of prior historical conditions. Because the presence or
absence cannot be established independent of theory, the specification of path
dependence is always a theory-laden process (p. 507-8).

La particularidad de este tipo de explicaciones radica en que las contingencias

son vistas como eventos con propiedades causales porque ponen en
movimiento trayectorias histricas con propiedades determinsticas. Esto tiene
dos implicaciones: (1) este tipo de explicaciones tienen un carcter no
generalizable y (2) el orden de los eventos tiene consecuencias sobre el
carcter del desenlace final.

Relacin con el proyecto

Mahoney dice que para que un anlisis histrico sea considerado pathdependent debe cumplir tres criterios mnimos:
1. Path-dependent analysis involves the study of causal processes that are
highly sensitive to events that take place in the early stages of an overall
historical sequence.
2. In a path-dependent sequence, early historical events are contingent
occurrences that cannot be explained on the basis of prior events or
initial conditions.
3. Once contingent historical events take place, path-dependent sequences
are marked by relatively deterministic causal patterns or what can be
thought of as inertia i.e., once processes are set into motion and
begin tracking a particular outcome, these processes tend to stay in
motion and continue to track this outcome (p. 510-1).
Adems, Mahoney seala que hay dos tipos de enfoques que podran
caracterizarse como anlisis path-dependent: (1) aquellos que estudian

secuencias autoperpetuantes [self-reinforcing sequences] y (2) aquellos que

estudian secuencias reactivas [reactive sequences].
Secuencias autoperpetuantes
In these sequences, initial steps in a particular direction induce further movement in the
same direction such that over time it becomes difficult or impossible to reverse direction
(p. 512).

Este tipo de estudios identifica dos tipos de causas o procesos: (1) los procesos
responsables por el nacimiento de una institucin y (2) los procesos
responsables por su reproduccin.
1. Las instituciones nacen durante periodos que pueden ser denominados
coyunturas crticas [critical conjunctures], que se caracterizan por la
adopacin de determinado arreglo institucional de entre dos o ms
alternativas. Esta adopcin es contingente puesto que no existe forma
de predecir cul de esas alternativas hubiera sido elegida en primer
lugar. Pero qu exactamente puede ser considerado como contingente?
Eso depende de la teora de la cual parte el investigador: un evento
contingente puede ser considerado como un suceso que cae por fuera
del aparato terico del investigador, se trata de un momento donde la
agencia de los individuos adquiere protagonismo.
2. A diferencia del primer momento, la reproduccin institucional suele ser
explicada por mecanismos derivados de una teora. Mahoney toma una
tipologa de Collins (1994) para explorar las distintas formas en que
puede explicarse la reproduccin institucional.

Tipologa de formas de explicar la reproduccin institucional en un estudio

path-dependent.
Utilitarian
Functional
Power
Legitimation
explanation
explanation
explanation
explanation
Mechanism
of
reproduction

Institution is
reproduced
through the
rational costbenefit
assessment of
actors

Institution is
reproduced
because it
serves a
function for an
overall system

Institution is
reproduced
because it is
supported by an
elite group of
actors

Institution is
reproduced
because actors
believe it is
morally just or
appropriate

Potential
characteristi
cs of
institution

Institution may
be less efficient
than previously
available
alternatives

Institution may
be less
functional than
previously
available
alternatives

Institution may
empower an
elite group that
was previously
subordinate

Institution may be
less consistent
with values of
actors than
previously
available
alternatives

Mechanism

Increased
competitive

Exogenous
shock that

Weakening of
elites and

Changes in the
values of

of change

pressures;
learning
processes

transforms
system needs

strengthening of
subordinate
groups

subjective beliefs
of actors

Tomado de Mahoney (p. 517)

Secuencias reactivas
Reactive sequences are chains of temporally ordered and causally connected events. In
a reactive sequence, each event in the sequence is both a reaction to antecedent events
and a cause of subsequent events (p. 526).

Si las secuencias autoperpetuantes estn caracterizadas por procesos de

reproduccin, entonces las secuencias reactivas estn caracterizadas por
procesos que transforman (o que incluso pueden ir en contrava) los primeros
eventos de la secuencia histrica.
In a reactive sequence, early events trigger subsequent development not by
reproducing a given pattern, but by setting in motion a chain of tightly linked reactions
and counteractions (p. 527).

La principal dificultad de este tipo de anlisis se deriva de la ausencia de

criterios claros para escoger el punto de partida de esta secuencia. Mahoney
dice que estos primeros momentos deben estar marcados por un punto de
ruptura. La otra dificultad radica en establecer de qu manera un evento se
desprende lgicamente de otro evento inmediatamente anterior. Es decir, el
investigador debe explicar de qu manera los eventos de su secuencia estn
enlazados causalmente. Mahoney identifica tres rasgos distintivos de este tipo
de anlisis que pueden evitar que el investigador cometa arbitrariedades.
1. Los eventos de una secuencia reactiva path-dependent funcionan como
condiciones necesarias o suficientes para eventos posteriores. De esta
manera se puede dar cuenta del carcter determinstico de las
secuencias reactivas.
Necessary and sufficient causes are themselves not logically equivalent, and, as Abbott
(1983) argues, it is helpful to maintain a distinction between the two. Sufficient links
project forward in time, asking how events make other events happen. Necessary ones
project backward, asking what events might have prevented the present state of things
from happening. Separating the two makes a sequential analysis much clearer (p. 531).

2. Inherent sequentiality permits a fine-grained analysis of the causal

mechanisms that link initial conditions with final outcomes. Causal
mechanisms are the intervening processes through which one variable
exerts a causal effect on another variable. []. When path-dependent
analysts explicitly identify these mechanisms, they draw on existing
theoretical frameworks, including the utilitarian, functional, power, and
legitimation approaches discussed above.
3. The final component of inherent sequentiality is a clear temporal
ordering among events in a sequence. []. The chronological ordering of
events in narrative is a key reason why reactive sequences appear to
follow an inherent logic in which one event naturally leads to another.

Indeed, if the events in a reactive sequence cannot be clearly arranged

in a precise chronological order, the notion that one event logically
follows from another is considerably harder to sustain (p. 531-2).
In this article, I have argued that path dependence occurs when a contingent historical
event triggers a subsequent sequence that follows a relatively deterministic pattern. In the
case of a self-reinforcing sequence, the contingent period corresponds with the initial
adoption of a particular institutional arrangement, while the deterministic pattern
corresponds with the stable reproduction of this institution over time. By contrast, in the case
of a reactive sequence, the contingent period corresponds with a key breakpoint in history,
while the deterministic pattern corresponds with a series of reactions that logically follow
from this breakpoint (p. 535).

Luis Felipe, tambin hay un libro muy chvere de Paul Pierson que se
llama Politics in Time. El man es un politlogo de los chveres.