SPECIAL DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Binomial Distribution
The probability of x successes in a binomial experiment with n trials and probability of success = p is
x

P(successes) = nCx p q

n-x

Px qn-x

for x = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n

Poisson Distribution
Named in honor of Simeon Poisson
It counts the number of successes in a fixed interval of time or within a specified region.
It is often used to model the number of random occurrences of some phenomenon in a specified unit of space or time.
The following are examples of Poisson distribution:
1. The number of chemistry fires in Valenzuela factories during January.
2. The number of defects in a bolt of fabric.
3. The number of people arriving at the emergency room of a hospital during an eight hour shift.
4. The number of typing errors per page made by typist.
5. The number of kernels of corn that fail to pop in a 3.5 ounce bag of microwave popcorn.
Properties of Poisson Distribution
1. The experiment consists of counting the number of times a certain event occurs during a given unit of time or space.
2. The number of successes that occurs in any interval is independent of those that occur in other non-overlapping
intervals.
3. The probability of a success in an interval is proportional to the size of the interval.
Poisson Distribution Formula
The probability of observing exactly x number of occurrences per unit of measure (hour, minute, cubic, centimetre,
page) can be found using the formula.

P (x) =
where = the mean number of successes; e = the mathematical constant 2.7183; and
P(x) = the probability of getting exactly x number of occurrences
Exercise:
1. An average of 2 cars arrives at a highway tollgate every 10 seconds. If this rate is approximated by a Poisson process,
what is the probability that exactly 3 cars will arrive in a 10 seconds period?
2. The number of cars arriving at a gasoline station follows a Poisson distribution, with a mean of 3 cars every 10
minutes. What is the probability that exactly a) 1 car, b) 2 cars, and c) 3 cars will arrive in the next 10 minutes?
3. Records show that the probability a tire will suffer a blowout in the next year is 0.001. If 200 tires are used for a year,
what is the probability of exactly 3 blowouts?
4. If approximately, 1 % of the people in a certain compound of 200 people are left-handed, find the probability that
exactly five people there are left-handed.
5. A telephone operator receives 3 calls per hour. Find the probability it will receive the following:
(a) at most 3 calls, (b) at least 4 calls, (c) four or more calls.

SPECIAL CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Exponential Distribution
A random variable X is exponentially distributed if its probability density function is given by

f(x) =

x0

where e = 2.71828 . . . and is the parameter of the distribution.

Statistician have shown that the mean and standard deviation of an exponential random variable are equal to each
other:

Probability Associated with an Exponential Random Variable

If X is an exponential random variable,
P(X > x) =
P(X < x) = 1 P(x1 < X < x2) = P(X < x2) P(X < x1) =

Exercise:
1. X is an exponential random variable with = 0.3.
Find the following probabilities.
a. P(X > 2)
b. P(X < 4)

c. P(1 < X < 2)

2. Assume that x has an exponential distribution with = 3.0. Find

a. P(X 2)
b. P(X > 3)

c. P(4 X 2)

3. The lifetime of an alkaline battery is exponentially distributed with = 0.05

a. What is the mean and standard deviation of the batterys lifetime?
b. Find the probability that a battery will last between 10 and 15 hours.
c. What is the probability that a battery will last for more than 20 hours?
4. A checkout counter at a supermarket completes the process according to an exponential distribution with a service
rate of 6 per hour. A customer arrives at the checkout counter. Find the probability of the following events.
a. The service is completed in fewer than 5 minutes
b. The customer leaves the checkout counter more than 10 minutes after arriving
c. The service is completed in a time between 5 and 8 minutes.

5. A microwave oven manufacturer is trying to determine the length of warranty period it should attach to its
magnetron tube, the most critical component in the oven. Preliminary testing has shown that the length of life (in
years), x, of a magnetron tube has an exponential probability distribution with = 0.16.
a. Find the mean and standard deviation of x.
b. Suppose a warranty period of 5 years is attached to the magnetron tube. What fraction of tubes must the
manufacturer plan to replace, assuming that the exponential model with = .16 is correct?
c. Find the probability that the length of life of a magnetron tube will fall within the interval
to