Carbon Cycle Lab

This lab uses a model of the carbon cycle to give you a sense for how carbon
circulates through the atmosphere, biosphere, oceans, and crust. It allows
you to experiment with how human input to the cycle might change global
outcomes to the year 2100 and beyond. One particularly relevant human
impact is the increase in atmospheric CO2 levels. Between the years 1850
and 2006, atmospheric concentrations have risen from 290 parts per million
(ppm) to over 380 ppm - a level higher than any known on Earth in more
than 30 million years. Using the simulator, you will experiment with the
human factors that contribute to this rise and explore how different inputs to
the carbon cycle might affect the concentrations of the greenhouse gas CO2.
Part 1 - The Carbon Cycle
Step 1
Run the simulation to 2100 with the default settings, and, using your Data
Table, record the total carbon levels in each "sink" (terrestrial plants, soil, oil
and gas, coal, surface ocean, and deep ocean) at 2050 and 2100. Using the
data you collect from the model, answer the following questions while
thinking about how the model mimics real-life conditions.
Note: The default setting for the increase in fossil fuel use per year is 1.5%.
This rate of increase is also a reasonable projection for the increase in global
energy use, as the world's economies continue to ramp up and populations
grow.
1. If only one half of the plants in the world existed in 2100 (perhaps due
to deforestation), what do you predict the atmospheric carbon level
would be ? How would you change the simulation to reflect this?
2. What is the relationship between increased carbon in the ocean and
increased carbon in the soil? How else might carbon be transferred to
soil?
3. What happens to the level of atmospheric carbon as fossil fuel
consumption increases? Why does this happen?
Step 2
In many scenarios, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is projected to
increase beyond 700 ppm by the end of the century. However, this increase
in atmospheric carbon doesn't account for all of the carbon released by
burning fossil fuels.

To find out where all the carbon really goes, run the simulation again, one
decade at a time. Record the total amount of carbon in the atmosphere (the
number in the sky) and other carbon sinks (terrestrial plants, soil, surface
ocean, and deep ocean), as carbon moves through the system. Note that 1
ppm of atmospheric CO2 is equivalent to 2.1 GT (Gigatons) of carbon. As you
record your data, keep in mind that this is a simulation of real life. Think
about the questions below.
1. What is the relationship between an increase in fossil fuel consumption
and increased carbon in terrestrial plants? How might this change plant
populations? What impact could twenty years at this level of
consumption have on plant life?
2. What is the relationship between an increase in total carbon
concentration (the smokestack) and increased carbon in the ocean
surface? How might this change marine life populations? What impact
could fifty years at this level of emissions have on marine animals? On
marine plants?
3. In addition to circulating through the carbon cycle, where else might
excess carbon be found? In fifty years, where would you be most likely
to see excess carbon?
4. Which areas are most highly (and quickly) affected by an increase in
carbon emissions (and increase in fossil fuel consumption)? How would
these effects manifest themselves? What are the dangers/benefits to
these areas?

Conclusion
1. How will the increased carbon levels as noted in your Data Table affect
current animal and plant populations? Will the number and variety of
species change? How will they change?
2. From your collected data and what you have learned so far, what do
you propose as a solution to this dilemma?
3. Lesson 1:
4. Step 1
5.
To Year
2000
2050
2100

Gaseous
Carbon
Atmosphere

Ocean Water
Ocean
Surface

Deep
Ocean

Fossil Fuels
Oil and
Gas

Coal

Biosphere Gaseous
Carbon
Soil

Terrestrial
Plants

Lesson 1:
Step 2
To Year

Total Carbon
Emissions

Gaseous
Carbon

Smokestack

Atmospher
e

Ocean Water
Ocean
Surface

Deep
Ocean

Fossil Fuels
Oil and
Gas

Coal

Biosphere Gaseous
Carbon
Soil

Terrestrial
Plants

2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

Part 2 - Curb Emissions

Step 1
In a best-case (but very unrealistic) scenario, imagine that scientists
suddenly discovered an unlimited, clean, and cheap fuel source that emitted
no CO2 into the atmosphere, thus bringing fossil fuel use down to zero. What
would happen? Would the carbon cycle naturally bring atmospheric
CO2 levels back to pre-industrial levels (below 280 ppm)?
Press the "NONE" button next to fossil fuel use to bring CO2emissions to zero
in the simulation. Then run the simulation for a hundred or more years to see
what happens. Record your data and compare it to your previous entries.
Answer the questions below.
1. How have atmospheric carbon levels changed?
2. Without any fossil fuel consumption, which parts of the cycle have
improved their carbon levels in comparison to previous data? Which
sections of the cycle have improved from the previous levels you have
recorded but still are increasing their carbon levels?

Step 2
As you saw in Step 1, even with no further input from humans, the elevated
levels of atmospheric CO2 caused by a century of fossil fuel burning will
continue to impact the carbon cycle because the system attempts to reach a
state of equilibrium, with the exception of the gradual moving of carbon from

the surface to the deep ocean, which happens only over longer time-scales.
It could take 2000 years or more for this process to restore atmospheric
CO2 to pre-industrial levels.
Reducing carbon emissions to zero is far from realistic. Many scientists agree
that a doubling of the pre-industrial CO2concentration to approximately 550
ppm is a reasonable target to shoot for in order to avoid the most serious
impacts on climate and ecosystems. How much of a change in fossil fuel
consumption would we have to make to limit atmospheric CO2 to that level?
Return to the simulation and change the annual percentage increase in fossil
fuel usage until you can keep atmospheric CO2below 550 ppm in 2100. Once
you have found an appropriate level of fossil fuel percentage increase,
predict what would happen if fuel use stayed at that percentage increased
and deforestation decreased. In fifty years, if deforestation were decreased
50%, how would the carbon levels in the soil change? Run the simulation to
test your hypothesis. Were you correct? Were you surprised by the result?
What about your result surprised you?
1. What effect does a high carbon level have on the deep ocean? Why
might it be important to keep an eye on the deep ocean carbon levels?
What could that one number tell you about the cycle as a whole?
2. Try reducing the level of fossil fuel percentage increase and decrease
deforestation by 50%. Predict what will happen to the atmospheric
carbon levels and record it in your Data Table. Run the simulation to
test your hypothesis. Were you correct? Were you surprised by the
result? What about your result surprised you?

Conclusion
You've seen that the increase in fossil fuel use would have to be less than
half of the projected increase in energy demand (1.5% per year) in order to
keep atmospheric CO2 below 550 ppm. Consider what this means in real
terms.
1. What non-carbon-burning energy sources could be used to keep
carbon emissions down?
2. Considering the extra carbon created by humans, how might it
be possible (or is it?) to generate more means of recycling
carbon?
Lesson 2:
Step 1
To Year

Gaseous Carbon
Atmosphere

Ocean Water
Ocean Surface

Deep Ocean

Biosphere Gaseous Carbon

Soil

Terrestrial
Plants

2000
2050
2100

Lesson 2:
Step 2
To Year
2000
2050
2100

Gaseous Carbon
Net Def.
Rate

Fossil Fuel
% Increase

Atmosphere

Deep Ocean

Part 3 The Feedback Effect

Part 1
So far we have considered only the impact of burning fossil fuels. But there
are other human activities that influence the carbon cycle. One major factor
is deforestation and land use. Currently, land use (for example, rice paddies)
and deforestation outstrip reforestation by roughly 1 GT per year. If
deforestation were to increase, perhaps due to increased burning of
rainforests, carbon would be transferred first from terrestrial plants to the
atmosphere and then through the rest of the carbon cycle as seen in Lesson
1.
Change the net deforestation rate and observe how that impacts the carbon
cycle. Note that deforestation is expressed as GT of carbon released, not as a
percentage rate of increase. Realistic deforestation estimates would remain
less than 2 GT per year. Record what happens to the system at a steady net
deforestation rate of 1.6 GT per year and answer the following:
1. By 2080, how has the terrestrial plant life population changed? What is
the carbon level in the soil and how does the carbon level affect the
plant populations and species variety?
2. Compare this chart to the first one you made.
1. In 2060, how are soil carbon levels different? In what ways will
this difference in soil carbon level show itself?
2. By 2060, how might the worldwide decomposer populations
change? What effects could business as usual and the last rate
of deforestation you selected have on human health?
Part 2
There are several important natural systems that may be affected by
greenhouse warming as atmospheric CO2 rises. Some of these systems may
release even more CO2 into the atmosphere, speed up the warming, and
cause a positive feedback loop. Which feedback effects will actually take
place is hard to predict in such a complex system, but a model for one
feedback effect is included in the simulator: melting tundra. If the arctic
tundra were to melt as temperatures rise, its stored carbon would enter the
system. You will find two possible scenarios. One model assumes that 1/6 of
the tundra will melt over 100 years. The other predicts that 1/3 will melt over
that same time period.
Assume that, in this hypothetical scenario, the tundra melting is inevitable
and there is a 1.5% increase in fossil fuel consumption. Which of the two
rates of melting would:

1. Have an impact on coastal seaweed populations in 2050? How great

an impact?
2. Have an impact on atmospheric carbon in 2100 that is similar to
another scenario youve investigated? What similarities exist
between these two scenarios?

Conclusion
As you have seen in this lab, despite the natural tendency of the carbon
cycle to regulate the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, the system is
currently being overwhelmed by human fossil fuel use and deforestation. If
this increase in atmospheric CO2results in temperature rises as scientists
predict, there are several possible factors that could cause feedback effects.
If human beings are to mitigate these risks, they will have to take strong
action soon.
What are some viable ways of lessening the effect that increased carbon has
on the following?
1. Impact on human life
2. Destruction of the cycle
3. Global warming
4. Reduction or extinction of species, biomass

Lesson 3:
Step 1

Biosphere Gaseous Carbon

To Year
2000
2060
2080
2100

Net Def. Rate

Lesson 3:
Step 2
To Year
2000
2050
2100

Tundra
Melt
Rate
Net
Def.
Rate

Soil

Gaseous
Carbon
Atmosphere

Terrestrial Plants

Ocean Water
Ocean
Surface

Deep
Ocean

Fossil Fuels
Oil and
Gas

Coal

Biosphere Gaseous
Carbon
Soil

Terrestrial
Plants