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Title: Is there a relationship

between Urban Population and


Carbon Dioxide emissions in
Nigeria?

Name: David Oluwatobiloba Doherty

Is there a relationship between Urban


Population and Carbon Dioxide emissions?
In the past century the amount of carbon dioxide emissions has increased
drastically in the world, many believe that it may be due to the massive increase in
the worlds population. There are more people using up the earths resources, more
people driving cars and more people living in homes. This contributes to the amount
of smoke and carbon dioxide breathed out during respiration. I have never come
across data dating back to the 60's on both Urban Population and Carbon Dioxide
Emissions worldwide. This data showed me the constant rise in the worlds
population and the constant increase in the carbon dioxide emission in relation to
urban population and we can see the rise .Urban population refers to people living
in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices. It is calculated using World
Bank population estimates and urban ratios from the United Nations World
Urbanization Prospects.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), urban population accounted for
54% of the worlds population in 2014. Meaning 54% of the worlds population are
living in urbanized areas of their various countries.
Statement of Task
The main purpose of this investigation is to find the correlation between Urban
Population and Carbon dioxide emission in Nigeria over the span of 20 years. The
type of data that will be collected are urban Population percentage and Carbon
dioxide emissions total which have been collected over 60 years and stored on Gap
Minder
Plan of Investigation
I used three mathematical procedures to carry out my investigation and analyse the
data, a scatter plot of the data, calculation of the least squares regression line and
correlation coefficient. I will also a Chi Squared test to show the dependency of
Carbon Dioxide emissions on Urban Population in Nigeria over 20 years.

Mathematical Investigation
Collected Data
Table 1:

Table 1: Table 1 displays the increase in urban population as a percentage of the


total and the total of the carbon dioxide emissions in Nigeria. From the table you
can see the increase of Carbon Dioxide emissions till 2006, I think the reduction
after 2006 is due to the wide spread awareness of global warming and its effects on
the environment.
Figure 1

Figure 1: This figure shows the relationship between Urban Population and Carbon
Dioxide Emissions in Nigeria. (Graph by Plotly)

Figure 2

Figure 2 is the same scatter plot as the last, but this time there is a line of best fit.
As we can see the line has positive linear correlation. This shows that there is a
relation between two variables used in the data and they do have an effect on one
another.

Correlation Coefficient
A number between +1 and 1 calculated so as to represent the linear
interdependence of two variables or sets of data
Results:
X Values
= 940.28
Mean = 40.882
(X - Mx)2 = SSx = 485.321
Y Values
= 1536909
Mean = 66822.13
(Y - My)2 = SSy = 12012917320.367
X and Y Combined
N = 23
(X - Mx)(Y - My) = 1631752.632
R Calculation
r = ((X - My)(Y - Mx)) / ((SSx)(SSy))
r = 1631752.632 / ((485.321)(12012917320.367)) = 0.6758

Linear Regression
Linear regression is an approach for modelling the relationship between a
scalar dependent variable y and one or more explanatory variables (or
independent variables) denoted X.
Figure 3

Figure 3 shows the relationship between x and y using a calculation. This


equation is in the y intercept form. It can be fitted as a line of best fit as seen
in Figures 2 and 3
The equation of the regression line is:
y = 70631.125 + 3362.216x
The graph of the regression line is:
y = -70631.125 + 3362.216 x

XY

33.215

59337.667

1970900.609 1103.23622
41
5

33.904

70741.000

2398402.864

1149.48121
6

34.593

42438.000

1468057.734

1196.67564
9

35.282

45371.333

1600791.370 1244.81952
91
4

35.994

45243.000

1628476.542

1295.56803
6

36.706

64878.000

2381411.868

1347.33043
6

37.419

60056.333

2247247.924 1400.18156
53
1

38.131

46654.667

1778989.107 1453.97316
38
1

38.843

34914.000

1356164.502

39.545

40417.667

1598316.641 1563.80702
52
5

40.246

40186.667

1617352.600 1619.74051
08
6

40.948

40179.333

1645263.327 1676.73870
68
4

41.649

44784.667

1865236.595 1734.63920
88
1

42.351

79174.333

3353112.176 1793.60720
88
1

43.031

83343.333

3586346.962 1851.66696
32
1

43.711

98116.333

4288763.031 1910.65152
76
1

44.390

93129.667

4134025.918
1970.4721
13

45.070

97038.333

4373517.668
2031.3049
31

45.750

104034.333

4759570.734
2093.0625
75

46.400

93316.667

4329893.348
2152.96
8

47.050

90610.667

4263231.882

XX

1508.77864
9

2213.7025

Sum of every column

X=940.28, Y=1536909, XY=64463265.4372, X2=38925.602188


Finding A and B

Substitute a and b in regression equation formula

y = a + bx
y = 70631.125 + 3362.216x (This is the linear regression line, it can be used as a
line of best fit Figure 2 and 3).

Data Understanding
The graph in Figure 1 showed the rise and then fall of Carbon Dioxide emissions. In
Figure 2 and 3 the same graph is shown but this time they both have the line of best
fit and Figure 3 also had the regression calculation. The line showed a positive linear
correlation. Also from calculating my correlation coefficient which was 0.6578
meaning there was a strong correlation.

Limitations
There was only one limitation in my investigation and that was I was unable to get
sufficient data. I was only able to collate data from 1987 till 2009. If I had data
dating till 2014, then it will help support my investigation.

Conclusion
From my investigation I believe I received a concrete answer to my studies and was
able to come to the conclusion that Carbon Dioxide emissions in relation to Urban
Population were rising from 1987 till 2006 where they peaked and they gradually fell
from 2006 to 2009 and this can be attributed to the wide spread awareness of
global warming in the world. For a 3rd world country such as Nigeria which my
investigation was focused on this was a remarkable improvement in the effort to
reduce the damage of greenhouse gases such as Carbon Dioxide and its effects on
the environment. My line of best fit and correlation coefficient gave positive results

which reinforced my conclusion of the increase of Carbon Dioxide emissions with the
continuous increase in Urban Population.
Bibliography
Gapminder, can, T. and Documentation, territories (no date) Data. Available at:
http://www.gapminder.org/data/ (Accessed: 18 March 2016).
Linear regression (2016) in Wikipedia. Available at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_regression (Accessed: 18 March 2016).
Citations, Quotes & Annotations
Gapminder, can, T. and Documentation, territories (no date) Data. Available at:
http://www.gapminder.org/data/ (Accessed: 18 March 2016).
(Gapminder, can, and Documentation, no date)
Linear regression (2016) in Wikipedia. Available at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_regression (Accessed: 18 March 2016).
(Linear regression, 2016)