No r t h C a u c a s u s a n d
Wester n B a l kans C omp are d
Janusz Bugajski
Washington, DC
February 2014
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Origins
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C ON T E N T S
1. Introduction: Comparing Conflict Zones...1
2. Federal Failures5
Yugoslavias Federal Fracture6
Russias Federal Frailties9
Centralization and Amalgamation13
Moscows Republican Relations..19
3. Ethno-National Disputes23
Ethnic Politics24
Northwest Caucasus Ethnic Rivalries.26
Northeast Caucasus Ethnic Rivalries.34
Western Balkan Ethnic Contests.40
Rising Russian Nationalism.46
4. Religious Dimensions..53
Religious Radicalism in North Caucasus...54
Regional Insurgency..59
Religious Radicalism in Western Balkans.67
The Struggle for Islam..73
5. Contested States and Outside Powers81
Spreading Insurrection.82
Anti-Liberation Strategies91
Emerging Entities..96
Regional Spillovers..102
International Intervention107
ii
iii
1. INTRODUCTION: C OMPARING
C O N F L IC T Z O N E S
Throughout the 20th century, the Balkans have been depicted as
Europes powder keg. In the first two decades of the 21st century,
the North Caucasus resembles a Eurasian powder keg and the
fuses are steadily burning. While the 1984 Winter Olympics in
Sarajevo were held on the eve of the Yugoslav wars, the 2014 Winter
Olympics in Sochi have been organized in the midst of an expanding
insurgency in the North Caucasus. To discern the causes and
consequences of the escalating conflicts in the North Caucasus, this
monograph compares conditions in the region with the former
Yugoslavia in the Western Balkans. The entire Russian Federation
itself can be juxtaposed with the defunct Yugoslav federation, but
that would be the subject for a much broader study.
Proactive Western policies may be pursued to deal with the impact
of instability in the North Caucasus by examining the drivers of
conflict and extrapolating likely scenarios in the regions
development. Conditions in the North Caucasus have been
compared to Afghanistan, with reference to multi-ethnicity, tribal
loyalties, and religious radicalism. While there is merit in such
analogies, the contrasts between the two cases are more significant.
Unlike the North Caucasus, Afghanistan was not part of a wider
state structure and did not fall under the control of imperial powers,
except for brief interludes such as the Soviet occupation. It does not
possess a federal system and is unlikely to splinter into embryonic
states.
1
CONFLICT ZONES
INTRODUCTION
CONFLICT ZONES
before and during the collapse of Yugoslaviaa conflict zone with
which Western policymakers are familiar. In comparing and
contrasting conditions in the North Caucasus with the Western
Balkans, this monograph investigates the following factors:
2. FEDERAL FAILURES
The first Yugoslavia was established by agreements between Serbian,
Croatian, and Slovenian national leaders at the close of World War
One and following the collapse of the Ottoman and Habsburg
empires. The multi-national Yugoslav communist party led by
Marshall Josip Broz Tito established the second Yugoslavia in the
wake of World War Two after leading a war of resistance against
German occupation. The centralized communist system was
gradually loosened and under the 1974 constitution the leaders of
Yugoslavias six republics gained a measure of political autonomy.
In contrast with the Yugoslav experience, the nations of the North
Caucasus were forcibly conquered by Russia in the 19th century.
Under both Tsarist and Soviet rule, aspirations for independence
were violently subdued and local populations subjected to
genocide*, mass repression, and deportation. Unlike the original
Yugoslav program, the Russian and Soviet projects were imposed on
the subject peoples, and local elites were co-opted to ensure
Moscows control.
Officials in Moscow have periodically warned about the danger of
state implosion or the potential Yugoslavization of Russia, with
the emergence of several independent countries. Henry Hale and
Rein Taagepera point out that in former communist states only
those with federal structures (USSR, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia)
_________________________________
*Please note: The Jamestown Foundation does not take a position on what
historical events do or do not constitute a genocide. As an organization, Jamestown
believes that ultimate judgment over how to define and classify these sorrowful and
notorious events of the past is best left to historians.
CONFLICT ZONES
that invested their regional governments with ethnic content
collapsed. By contrast, ethnically diverse and even communally
divided countries survived, such as Romania with a unitary
administrative structure.2 Ethno-federal structures reinforced ethnic
identities and enabled regional leaders to play the national card in
pursuit of independence.
It is instructive to examine the similarities and contrasts between the
federal structures of former Socialist Yugoslavia and the current
Russian Federation in order to ascertain the latters vulnerability to
state fracture. In Socialist Yugoslavia, leaders of the Serbian
Republic and the Yugoslav military attempted to recentralize and
preserve the federation, culminating in widespread resistance and
ultimate collapse. Moscows attempts to enhance central control and
eliminate local autonomy in the North Caucasus resemble
Belgrades approach in the late 1980s. Such policies can exacerbate
conflict between the federal authorities, the leaders of the North
Caucasus republics, and the regions populations, and amplify calls
for outright secession.
FEDERAL FAILURES
his attention on reviving Serbian nationalism, recentralizing the
federation, and manipulating national grievances to consolidate his
power.
In 19881989, Milosevic annulled the autonomy of Serbias two
autonomous regions (Kosova and Vojvodina) and emplaced a
political loyalist to head the republic of Montenegro. This reinforced
Serbias influence, as it gained control over four of the eight federal
subjects. A new Serbian constitution enacted on September 28, 1990,
further undermined the federal structure by underscoring that
Serbia was unified and unalienable, while buttressing the powers
of the Serbian presidency. Milosevic also attempted to strengthen
direct controls over all federal institutions and conducted a
sweeping purge of the armed forces.
The ethnification of Yugoslav politics and growing Serbian
nationalism contributed to a nationalist resurgence in other
republics. With Slovenia and Croatia declaring their independence
in June 1991, it was no longer feasible to hold the federation
together. Milosevic calculated that a smaller Serb-dominated
Yugoslavia could be crafted from the remaining territories. The
optimal goal was to keep Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, and
Montenegro inside the federation in addition to partitioned areas of
Croatia. When Bosniak Muslim and Bosnian Croat leaders declared
Bosnias independence in February 1992 and the Macedonian
government followed suit, Milosevic enabled a war of territorial
partition in Bosnia, similar to the one in Croatia in 1991.
The emergence of five new states in 19911992 engendered a variety
of nationalist impulses. They ranged from the relatively benign proindependence nationalism of Slovenia and the defensive nationalism
of Macedonia, to the xenophobic ethno-nationalism in BosniaHerzegovina exhibited by Serb and Croat militias backed by their
nationalist patrons in Serbia and Croatia. Their policies led to forced
7
CONFLICT ZONES
expulsions and the mass murder of rival ethnic groups in order to
create ethnically exclusive territories controlled by authoritarian
politicians posing as national saviors.
Bosnia-Herzegovina found itself in a similar position as the
Yugoslav federation once Slovenia and Croatia withdrew from the
federal government. It was afflicted by polarization between leaders
of the three component nationsMuslim, Serb, and Croat. Serb
leaders asserted that they would not accept minority status in an
independent Bosnia-Herzegovina. Croat leaders charged that Serb
activists in league with the Milosevic regime were preparing a crisis
similar to the one engineered in Croatia.
Serbian moves toward secession were accompanied by a propaganda
barrage emanating from Belgrade, alleging that Muslims were intent
on transforming Bosnia into a militant Islamic state, in which Serbs
would be subject to persecution and genocide. Bosniak leaders
strenuously denied these charges and declared their support for a
secular, multi-ethnic, and democratic country. Indeed, on the eve of
armed hostilities there was no perceptible threat from either the
Muslim or Croat side to the safety of Serbian residents. In April
1992, the political impasse was transformed into an armed conflict
launched by Bosnia's Serb leaders. Militarily, Sarajevo was incapable
of either neutralizing the Serb forces or protecting Muslim residents.
The bulk of the Yugoslav army stationed in Bosnia-Herzegovina was
transformed into a new Bosnian Serb army commanded by a former
Yugoslav army general, Ratko Mladic.
With overwhelming firepower and material support from Belgrade,
Serbian troops overran nearly two-thirds of Bosnian territory.
Muslim forces were caught unprepared and suffered severe
casualties across the republic. Serbian ethnic cleansing operations
were comprehensively applied to terrorize Muslim communities and
create pure contiguous Serbian territories across western, northern,
8
FEDERAL FAILURES
and eastern Bosnia-Herzegovina. As the war escalated, Bosnian
Croat leaders formed their own army and government structures
and expelled Muslim residents from territories where they claimed
exclusive control.
A separate Serb Republic was declared inside Bosnia, intended to
link up with Serb-captured territories in Croatia and to merge with
the rump Yugoslavia, consisting of the republics of Serbia and
Montenegro. Croatian nationalists claimed about one-fifth of
Bosnia, particularly those municipalities in western Herzegovina
where Croats formed majorities. The NATO intervention in the
summer of 1995 enabled Zagreb to regain the Serb separatist
territories in Croatia, while the Dayton accords signed in November
1995 and accompanied by a NATO ground force ended the
hostilities in Bosnia and created a two-entity confederation under
international supervision: a Muslim-Croat federation and a Serb
Republic.
The final cracks in the Yugoslav federal experiment surfaced in
1999. The attempted expulsion of the Albanian majority from
Kosova by Serbian forces precipitated a NATO intervention, the
separation of Kosova from Serbia, and the creation of the new state
of Kosova in February 2008. In addition, the republic of
Montenegro restored its independence and statehood in June 2006
following a public referendum. With the rump Yugoslavia dissolved,
Serbia itself became a separate state but with a truncated territory
and new international borders.
CONFLICT ZONES
the closing stages of Yugoslavia. The Russian state became an
empire before the Russian people became a nation.4 The transition
from empire to nation-state remains incomplete and the Kremlins
attempts to construct an all-Russian identity are widely rejected as
a form of Russification and Moscow-centrism. Russians continue to
grapple with their own identity, with the structure and parameters
of the state, and their relations with non-Russian ethnicities. The
latter form almost 20% of Russias population of 142,946,800,
according to the 2010 census.
Although Russia may not fracture primarily because of the growing
turmoil in the North Caucasus, the region is important for Russia as
a precedent and potential trigger for disintegration. 5 Moscows
policy of coercive centralization is not a successful recipe for
maintaining a single state structure in an ethnically and religiously
complex territory.6 Reliance on local elites engaged in corruption
and repression in the midst of economic stagnation simply
encourages regional insurrection. Conversely, the granting of
greater local autonomy in conditions of economic distress could also
energize forces seeking full sovereignty from Russia.
Several Russian analysts and former intelligence officers have
warned about the countrys prospective partition due to the absence
of a unifying ideology and the rise of Russian nationalism. Viktor
Suvorov, a military intelligence officer who defected to Great
Britain, believes that the Russian Federation will disintegrate during
the next two decades and that Putin will be the last President.7
Among the causes listed by Suvorov are the growing gulf between
the Russian people and the Kremlin, ethnic conflicts, regional
competition, and military demoralization. In an indication of
creeping separation, despite a shortage of military recruits Moscow
only drafts a small number of indigenous Chechens, Ingush and
Dagestanis into the Russian army.8 The government is fearful of
conflicts with Slavic soldiers and calculates that after gaining
10
FEDERAL FAILURES
military experience the North Caucasians could join the insurgents.
As a consequence, mono-ethnic Russian units will increasingly be
viewed in the North Caucasus as representatives of an occupying
power.
Ivan Starikov, economics professor at Moscows Presidential
Academy of Economics and State Service, enumerates five reasons
for an impending federal collapse.9 These include: the erosion of
central authority, over-reliance on raw materials for economic
growth, collapse of the countrys scientific and technical base, lack of
investment in infrastructure, and spreading sentiments in many
regions that they are merely Moscows colonies.
The breakup of the Soviet Union led to changes in the legal status of
autonomous regions in the North Caucasus.10 According to two
Soviet laws passed in April 1990, the distinctions between Union
Republics (UR) and Autonomous Republics (AR) were removed so
that in principle the latter could also secede in the same way that
Russia was able to separate from the USSR. 11 Although many
republics within the Russian Federation adopted a declaration of
sovereignty in 19901992, Moscow had a different conception of
sovereignty. It claimed that the degree of state sovereignty of the
Russian Federation was not equivalent to the sovereignty of
republics that were part of that federation. However, the wording in
most republican constitutions presumed that the federal center and
the autonomies possessed equal rights.
For instance, Article 1 of the constitution of Adygea declared it a
sovereign state within Russia, but Article 53 specified that Adygea
reserved the right to nullify its commitments to the Federation
Treaty if the latter was violated by the central government.12 This
indicated the possible secession of Adygea on the basis of a decision
by one of the parties to the treaty. Article 1 of the constitution of
Dagestan asserted the priority of republican laws over federal ones,
11
CONFLICT ZONES
and Article 70 stated: the Republic of Dagestan reserves the right to
alter its state legal status on the basis of the will of the Dagestani
people.
Article 62 of the constitution of North OssetiaAlania asserted that
if the Russian Federation fails to fulfill the commitments that it has
taken upon itself in accordance with the Constitution of the Russian
Federation and the Federation Treaty in relation to the Republic of
North Ossetia-Alania, then North OssetiaAlania reserves the right
to exercise appropriate authority independently. Article 7 of the
constitution of Ingushetia declared the priority of republican laws
over federal ones. Article 1 of Chechnyas constitution declared the
creation of an independent state.13
Andrey Zakharov, a prominent Russian specialist on federal
systems, contends that Russian federalism is a sleeping institution
that could re-awaken, similarly to Soviet federalism in the 1980s,
and lead to the secession of one or more federal units.14 Many of the
federal entities possess a legal basis for full sovereignty and
secession. According to Olga Tynyanova at the International Law
Institute of the Russian Federation Ministry of Justice, despite
measures to centralize the state under Putins administration, the
federation still preserves the legislative base of regional and ethnopolitical disintegration in the border areas.15
Only three of Russias 83 federal units recognize in their
constitutions that their territories are inalienable parts of the
Russian Federation. According to Tynyanova, the institutional and
legislative guarantees for the countrys territorial integrity are quite
unreliable. If an unforeseen political weakening of the federal center
occurs, there is a high likelihood that the countrys federative
structure will be shattered.
The 1992 Russian Federation Treaty gave all ethnic republics the
12
FEDERAL FAILURES
attributes of statehood, including constitutions, parliaments,
supreme courts, presidents, and official languages.16 This quasiconfederal arrangement probably prevented the initial breakup of
the federation, but was eroded under Vladimir Putins presidency
because the Kremlin feared that it would strengthen moves toward
secession. In May 2000, in one of his first decrees, newly elected
Putin launched major administrative reforms to strengthen the
power vertical and increase Moscows controls over the republics.
This was accomplished by establishing a system of seven federal
districts (okruga) and the appointment of presidential
plenipotentiaries (polpredy) to oversee the seven districts.
The North Caucasus was initially assigned to the Southern Federal
District (SFD), which included all seven republicsAdygea,
Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, North OssetiaAlania, KabardinoBalkaria, and Karachay-Cherkessiatogether with Stavropol krai
and Krasnodar krai, and with its administrative center in Rostovon-Don. In February 2010, President Dmitry Medvedev announced
the creation of the North Caucasus Federal District (NCFD) with
Alexander Khloponin as the Presidents plenipotentiary based in
Piatigorsk, Stavropol krai. It included six republicsDagestan,
Chechnya, Ingushetia, North OssetiaAlania, Kabardino-Balkaria,
and Karachay-Cherkessiatogether with Stavropol krai. The new
district split the North Caucasus on an east-west axis to try and
insulate the western regions from the insurgency.
CONFLICT ZONES
periodically changed republican leaders, depending on their success
in combating the insurgency. In October 2004, Putin abolished all
direct elections of presidents of republics and heads of oblasts and
krais. The leaders of Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria, and North
OssetiaAlania were replaced in 20052006 by Kremlin
appointees.18 Such a strategy achieved little in combating insurgent
networks since the installed leaders lacked local legitimacy.
In 2005, the influence of Russias regions in the State Duma
(parliament) was reduced when single-mandate seats were
abolished. Members were now elected from party lists by
proportional representation and the electoral threshold for parties
was raised from 5% to 7% of the vote. There are no regional parties
in the North Caucasus, and since 2008, Putins United Russia party
has gained a majority in all regional assemblies and almost all
republican heads are party members.19 Funding for regions most
heavily reliant on federal subsidies is partly based on how strongly
they support United Russia during elections.20 Moscows policies
have corrupted republican leaders, eliminated their electoral
accountability, increased calls for local autonomy, and raised
resentments among the Russian majority elsewhere in the
Federation against providing economic assistance to the North
Caucasus.
Kremlin subsidies to the North Caucasus are among the highest in
the country. In 2012, they ranged from 85% of the republican
budget in Ingushetia to 56% in North OssetiaAlania. 21 Large
subsidies may have pacified sections of the elite but have done little
to alleviate chronic maladies such as economic stagnation, rampant
corruption, infrastructural decay, environmental degradation and
organized crime. They also ensure that regional governments have
limited fiscal autonomy.
During Putins tenure, direct central controls and the emplacement
14
FEDERAL FAILURES
of regional administrators has undermined nascent moves toward
genuine federalism, reduced elite accountability, increased official
corruption, heightened public alienation from Moscow, and
exacerbated radical opposition to the republican administrations.
Moscows control and subsidization failed to improve economic
conditions or to provide greater public security but contributed to
creating greater material disparities between a small elite and a mass
of impoverished residents. At a session of the Government
Commission for the Development of the North Caucasus Federal
District on August 19, 2013, Prime Minister Medvedev admitted
that the regions problems were increasingly acute.22 The idea of
stimulating economic development through tourism tied to the
Sochi Olympics had failed, as resources were wasted and corruption
escalated.
Moscows appointees have heightened separatist sentiments, as was
the case in May 2002 with the manipulated election of Ingushetias
governor Murat Zyazikov. During Zyazikovs term in office, an
opposition Peoples Assembly composed of emissaries from nearly
two dozen clans called for Ingushetias secession from Russia if
Zyazikov was not replaced. President Medvedev dismissed Zyazikov
on October 30, 2008, and Colonel Yunus-Bek Yevkurov was
approved by the Ingush legislature.23
On April 2, 2013, President Putin signed into law amendments that
allow regional parliaments to choose the form of elections for
governors, either through a direct vote or a ballot in parliament.24
These amendments restrict the ability of citizens to elect local
leaders. In most cases, the Russian President proposes a candidate
and the republican parliament confirms his nominee.25 The Kremlin
seeks loyalists throughout the region, while citizens are unable to
hold republican authorities accountable or to participate in political
life. These conditions differ from Yugoslavia on the eve of its
collapse, where a spectrum of political parties mushroomed before
15
CONFLICT ZONES
the first democratic elections in each republic during 1990. Neither
the federal nor the Serbian government possessed sufficient political
or economic instruments to control the process in Slovenia, Croatia,
Bosnia-Herzegovina or Macedonia.
The Kremlin wanted to finalize its North Caucasus appointments
before the Sochi Olympics in February 2014 and create an
impression of stability. On September 9, 2013, the head of
Ingushetia, Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, was elected by the republics
parliament. The North Ossetian parliament approved a bill to
abolish the election of the republics head by popular vote. The
governor of Kabardino-Balkaria, Arsen Kanokov, was replaced on
December 6, 2013, by a Russian security officer, General Yuri
Kokov, as the security situation steadily deteriorated in the
republic.26 Kanokov also aroused Kremlin displeasure by failing to
quell the Circassian national resurgence and by financing the
immigration of about 1,000 Syrian Circassians. 27 However,
Circassian activists were also critical of Kanokov for his
unwillingness to defend broader Circassian interests.28
The Kremlin can remove republican heads that are not considered
sufficiently effective in combating insurgents or curbing public
unrest. For example, at the end of January 2013, Moscow removed
the President of Dagestan, Magomedsalam Magomedov, and
appointed Ramazan Abdulatipov in his place. On September 9,
2013, Abdulatipov received 86 of 88 votes in Dagestans parliament
in indirect elections for the republics President. Abdulatipov has
appointed people who are personally loyal to him, but this is
unsettling Dagestans complex ethnic balancing because previous
leaders conducted negotiations with diverse local elites.
The centralized Chechen model imposed by Moscow after the 1999
2000 war is unlikely to work in Dagestan because of the republics
ethnic diversity. The Kremlins administrative recentralization
16
FEDERAL FAILURES
undermines the complex structure of inter-ethnic balancing that has
kept the republic relatively stable.29 As elites look toward Moscow
for legitimation rather than to their constituencies, factionalism and
corruption accelerate. The Kremlin aims to counter Dagestans
national fragmentation by eliminating ethnic electoral districts,
appointing a chief executive, and building a hierarchical power
structure around a small group of officials. However, such changes
subvert the system of group compromises that maintained cohesion.
Moscows meddling benefits the larger ethnic groups and
disenfranchises numerous smaller ethnicities, whose leaders grow
more militant in response.30
Following the June 1, 2013 arrest of the mayor of Makhachkala, Said
Amirov, by an elite Federal Security Service (FSB) commando unit,
experts predicted a dangerous power vacuum in the republic.31
Amirovs chief rival, President Abdulatipov, evidently convinced
Russias leadership that Amirov was the main source of Dagestans
problems. Although Moscow can remove even the most influential
people and emplace more pliant leaders, it cannot conduct any
meaningful reforms.32 Direct rule from Moscow does not ensure
stability, but will generate ungovernability as the people installed
will have limited influence, thereby stimulating radical alternatives.
One overarching danger for Russias survival is the proposal to
transform the country into a unitary nation-state defined by the
Russian ethnos. This would place the Russian Federation more
firmly on a Yugoslav trajectory toward disintegration. Milosevics
attempts at recentralization under greater Serbian influence
accelerated demands for a looser confederal structure or outright
secession among other republics. Centralization also did not save
the USSR from collapse, and any moves toward Russias unitarism
are likely to provoke separatism in several republics and other
federal entities.
17
CONFLICT ZONES
Centralizing trends and Russification efforts are evident in
proposals for regional amalgamation to reduce the number of
federal units. Kremlin officials have recommended eliminating
several non-Russian republics and decreasing the number of federal
subjects from 83 to 25, organized on a territorial rather than ethnotitular basis. Although such schemes are intended to increase central
control and undercut regional autonomy, they may exacerbate
resentment, instability and conflict between Moscow and the
regions.33 Milosevic conducted similar moves when consolidating
Serbias predominance in the eight-unit Yugoslav Federation by
eliminating the autonomy of Kosova and Vojvodina and reducing
Montenegros sovereignty.
Paradoxically, Putins push to enlarge some of Russias regions
through amalgamation, perhaps by merging several entities within
the seven federal districts created in 2000, could make Russias
collapse even more plausible.34 Reducing the number of federal units
may enable local leaders to cooperate more closely in opposition to
Moscow. Investing the new macro-regions with real economic and
political content will raise perceptions that they are economically
viable as independent states. Regional enlargement can promote the
development of distinct macro-regional identities as the basis for
statehood.
Residents in the ethno-titular republics are increasingly conscious of
their constitutional status and agitated when local officials
appointed by Moscow ignore them.35 Such sentiments will grow in
response to proposals that non-Russian republics be disbanded and
amalgamated into larger and predominantly ethnic Russian entities.
The prime example of merger plans in the North Caucasus revolves
around Adygea, which Moscow has planned to incorporate in
predominantly Russian Krasnodar krai. In response, Adygean and
Circassian communities from across the region warned that any
18
FEDERAL FAILURES
push to nullify Adygeas status would spark a movement to unify
many of the historic Circassian territories.36
Adygeas President, Hazret Medzhidovich Sovman, opposed the
idea of combining Adygea and Krasnodar krai, which would further
marginalize the Circassian language and culture. Facing open revolt
in Adygea, in October 2006 Moscow postponed the merger proposal
and instead replaced the republics President Hazret Sovman with
Aslan Tkhakushinov, who initiated a more gradual transfer of
control over Adygeas institutions to the Krasnodar authorities.
Various official proposals have been circulating in reorganizing
Russias mega-regions, including plans to combine Dagestan,
Ingushetia, and Chechnya in a single Northeast Caucasus Federal
District, and fusing Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, and
North OssetiaAlania in the NCFD.37 The latter proposal may have
the unintended consequence of mobilizing Circassian nationalism
across republican borders. Some local analysts believe that Putins
plan for regional amalgamation is also behind Chechen leader
Ramzan Kadyrovs territorial claims on portions of Ingushetia.
Magomed Mutsolgov, an Ingush legal rights activist, asserts that the
territorial conflicts between Chechens and Ingush have re-emerged
because of intrigues in Moscow to divide and rule the region and
reward Kadyrov for his loyalty.38
CONFLICT ZONES
Caucasus, Moscow has largely contained direct political opposition
to the central authorities by providing substantial financial
resources to republican leaders in order to maintain their loyalty
and dampen any movement toward independence. In 2012, Moscow
approved a new State Program for the North Caucasus, allocating
2.5 trillion rubles ($80.9 billion) in spending on the region over the
coming thirteen years.39 The center was subsidizing the republics
with about 75% of their budgets.40 However, federal subsidies were
not effectively used to tackle chronic underdevelopment.
Russias State Program for economic development has echoes of the
federal program pursued by the Ante Markovic government in
Yugoslavia (19891991), which was supposed to stimulate economic
growth on the eve of disintegration. Presidential envoy Khloponin
elaborated Moscows proposals in December 2012.41 The main goal
was to establish centers of economic growth and industrial tourist
zones by coordinating state and business strategies in the region.
Despite these pledges, analysts expect minimal impact as any
allocated money will be squandered or line the pockets of corrupt
politicians. Preparations for the Sochi Winter Olympics
demonstrated that the underlying objective of Kremlin policy in the
North Caucasus is not focused on economic development. Moscow
established an extra-constitutional zone around Sochi that
stripped local residents of any legal protections, while the extensive
corruption involved in Olympic construction projects will ensure
few durable economic benefits to the broader region.42
A number of political, social, and economic factors create an
explosive concoction. The corruption and arbitrariness of ruling
elites in the North Caucasus alienate the public and drive more
people toward Islamic radicalism.43 There are no democratic outlets
for dissent and opposition as non-governmental organizations are
virtually absent. Unlike Yugoslavia before its extinction, there are no
officially registered parties that can campaign for either reform or
20
FEDERAL FAILURES
secession. Unfavorable economic conditions contribute to
exacerbating social turmoil and youth estrangement. The entire
region exhibits high unemployment, low incomes, widespread
poverty, an extensive black market, and the withering of physical
infrastructure. The average unemployment rate is estimated at over
20%, with some republics registering the highest levels in the
Russian Federation. Unemployment has reached 48.9% in
Ingushetia and 27.2% in Chechnya.44
The addition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, annexed by Russian
forces from Georgia in August 2008 and fully dependent on Moscow
economically and militarily, will further deplete state resources. It
will contribute to instability inside Russia irrespective of whether
the federation formally absorbs the two regions. As long as its
energy earnings were high, Moscow was confident that it could
extinguish unrest in the North Caucasus through financial
assistance to local authorities. However, as the federal governments
ability to fund the regions diminishes, its room for maneuver
shrinks. Moscows sponsorship of local elites is a tactical ploy and
not a viable long-term strategy, especially if economic conditions
stagnate or pressures to reduce Russias subsidization intensify. The
likely cutbacks in federal funding to the regions after the enormous
outlay for the Sochi Olympics will also contribute to destabilization.
An additional vexing question is the absence of any ethnically
Russian republics in the Federation, which constrains the emergence
of a Russian nation-state. To resolve this problem there are two
main options: either the elimination of all national republics or the
creation of Russian national republics by combining regions where
the Russian population predominates, such as Central and North
Russia, the Volga region, and the Urals. The first option would
spark inter-ethnic and territorial disputes and raise demands for
secession among the larger nationalities. The latter alternative could
21
CONFLICT ZONES
also precipitate federal fracturing, as each Russian republic would be
less restrained in moving toward sovereignty.
In the North Caucasus, the benefits of remaining in the federation
may be increasingly outweighed by the costs. The systematic
brutality of state security forces against civilians has fueled
vendettas, encouraged recruitment for insurgency movements, and
reduced the legitimacy of republican governments. The Kremlin
could decide to employ greater force against armed rebels and other
liberation movements and thereby provoke a broader insurgency, or
it may manipulate inter-ethnic grievances, thus further
undermining the legitimacy of republican leaders. Alternatively,
local leaders fearing a loss of power and resources once the Kremlin
scales back its subsidies could exploit ethnic or religious identities
and even support territorial autonomy or outright separatism to
their advantage. This would place them in direct confrontation with
the Kremlin, as was the case between republican capitals and the
federal center in Belgrade before the Yugoslav wars erupted in 1991.
22
3. ETHNO-NATIONAL DISPUTES
Both the Western Balkans and the North Caucasus contain a
multitude of nationalities in which ethnic, administrative, and state
boundaries do not always coincide. Such conditions can be volatile
where statehood has been denied for sizeable ethnic groups or where
there is competition over land, resources, and political office. Ethnonationalism in the North Caucasus is generating local conflicts,
deepening alienation from Moscow, and fostering the emergence of
a separate regional identity that increasingly estranges the area from
Russia. 45 Disputes within and between several republics also
compound historical grievances, on which Moscow can capitalize.
However, attempts at pacification will prove progressively costly
and unworkable, as political opposition, inter-communal conflicts,
and armed insurgency escalate.
In the Western Balkans significant progress has been registered
since the wars in the 1990s, especially in constructing democratic
institutions and settling border disputes. Some countries have also
joined both NATO and the EU. Nonetheless, if economic conditions
stagnate or entry into the EU is indefinitely delayed, public
alienation and resentment could deepen and ethno-nationalism
would gain new adherents. Such sentiments can be turned against
ethnic and religious minorities or toward broader causes, such as
border revisions and territorial acquisitions that fuel conflicts with
nearby states and with international institutions.
23
CONFLICT ZONES
Ethnic Politics
The notion of historically constant inter-ethnic conflicts in the
North Caucasus and the Western Balkans must be treated with
caution. Even where disputes existed between members of ethnic
groups, they rarely escalated into organized inter-communal
violence in the former Yugoslav zone prior to the 20th century. In the
North Caucasus, it was primarily the intrusion of outside powers,
particularly Russia, which fostered conflicts. This was evident in the
post-Soviet land disputes between North OssetiaAlania and
Ingushetia, a legacy of Soviet nationalities policy and administrative
manipulation.46
In the post-communist setting, ethno-nationalists came to the
forefront demanding that ethnic boundaries correspond with
political units. Some exhibited a pronounced ethno-centric bias,
asserting the primacy of their ethnic groups culture, history and
language. By focusing on ethnic protection, ultra-nationalist
leaders exclude various categories of non-members as
untrustworthy aliens. Xenophobic nationalists operate on the
assumption that a perceived domestic or foreign threat helps to
unite a nation. This can lead to discrimination against minorities
and provoke hostility toward neighboring states.
Where wrenching economic reforms fail to bring tangible benefits
to sizable sectors of the population, ethno-nationalists gain political
opportunities. The perception of internal or external threat can also
act as a catalyst for the emergence of authoritarian regimes
espousing national unity and displaying intolerance toward
political
pluralism.
Xenophobic
nationalism
bolsters
authoritarianism by fostering an intolerant political climate on the
pretext of defending endangered national interests. The proponents
of a civic society, based on a balance between individual and
24
ETHNO-NATIONAL DISPUTES
minority group rights, on unrestricted political competition, an
open mass media, and the rule of law, may thereby face an uphill
struggle against a pervasive current of nationalist threat.
Even where nationalists do not hold political office, they can play a
destabilizing role by provoking conflicts with minorities and
berating the government for allegedly neglecting the countrys
national interests. The long-term impact of nationalist movements
is contingent upon a number of factors, including the extent of
democratic
consolidation,
institution
building,
political
competition, cross-party consensus, economic stabilization, transethnic citizenship, and legalized minority rights.
Yugoslavia proved a valuable case study of how the growth of
nationalism among one nationality can trigger an escalation of
competition between leaders of two or more ethnic groups.
Nationalism is declared to be an act of self-defense against
discrimination, repression, expulsion, or physical annihilation. Such
fears encourage nationalist leaders to seek an ethnically
homogeneous state, where the dominant ethnicity is constitutionally
defined as the sole state-creating nation.
In ex-Yugoslavia, the Serbs were the largest state-forming nation.
Yugoslav ruler Marshal Tito endeavored to curtail Serbian political
hegemony by devolving significant powers to the republics and
autonomous regions and promoting ethnic quotas favoring nonSerbs. Milosevic sought to reverse these policies by inserting loyalist
Serbs to the leadership of the republican communist structures and
the governments of several federal units. Ethnic favoritism sparked a
countervailing policy of nationalism in the northern republics of
Slovenia and Croatia and led to the elimination of Serb influence
from these emerging states.
25
CONFLICT ZONES
Milosevic and other republican leaders manipulated ethnonationalism to mobilize the population in the cause of purportedly
endangered national interests. This maneuver resulted in the
dissolution of federal authority and the declaration of independence
by several republics. It culminated in outright war, as the Serbian
government launched an armed campaign to either maintain
Yugoslav unity or establish a larger Serbian state that would include
territories in neighboring republics possessing sizeable Serbian
populations. Republican governments armed themselves to prevent
such scenarios and proclaimed independent states. The expulsion
and slaughter of other ethnic groups were justified as a form of
protection and pre-emptive action to create ethnically homogenous
and territorially integrated states. Although the North Caucasus has
not reached this level of inter-ethnic conflict, the ingredients for
such confrontations exist, given the long-standing rivalries over
territories and resources and the presence of a neo-imperial power
that can exacerbate these disputes.
ETHNO-NATIONAL DISPUTES
delineations, national deportations, and suppression of indigenous
aspirations.
The North Caucasus possesses a three-tiered identity: ethnic,
religious, and a regional consciousness that, alongside Islam,
transcends ethnicity. Similarly to Yugoslavism in the Western
Balkans, a Russian state (Rossianie) identity is weak and fading. An
integral component of North Caucasus regional solidarity is
opposition to Moscows rule, drawing on memories of resistance
against Russian colonization. 47 The motives of contemporary
insurgents should not be reduced solely to religious radicalism, as
ethnic nationalism does not disappear during periods of intense
turmoil but can resurface with a vengeance.48 Ethno-nationalists are
more numerous than Islamic radicals, but because they generally do
not resort to violence they may be less visible.49 Moscow seeks to
downplay the question of national separatism, contending that
regional unrest is the result of Islamic militancy and international
subversion.50 As Walter Richmond points out, militant Salafism has
been co-opted by radicals whose primary goals are nationalist,
tribal, separatist, and unrelated to the central tenets of Islam.51
Moscow has manipulated inter-ethnic rivalries in a classic strategy
of divide and rule.52 It seeks to deflect dissatisfaction with the
center toward local inter-ethnic relations and thereby undercut
moves toward republican autonomy. The Soviet regime split some
nationalities among several republics to undermine the impetus for
independence, and balanced ethnic political representation in each
republic to prevent the dominance of any one group. The repressive
Soviet state combated all manifestations of national independence,
but the Russian Federation does not possess the capabilities for
engaging in mass repression to ensure absolute political control.
Nationality disputes in the North Caucasus indicate that ethnic
factors are on the rise. 53 Moscow can manipulate inter-ethnic
27
CONFLICT ZONES
frictions to pose as a benevolent mediator or as an essential presence
to prevent outright war. It may also play the role of Milosevics
Serbia in the Yugoslav federation by pushing for border changes
among the republics or territorial mergers with neighboring Russian
regions on the pretext of defending ethnic-Russian or indigenous
populations that demonstrate loyalty to Moscow.
In the northwest Caucasus, the Soviet goal was to divide the
Circassian and Turkic peoples and lock them into a perpetual
conflict with each other over land and resources. Tsarist and Soviet
rulers also colonized these republics with Slavic settlers, particularly
Cossacks.54 As the Circassians predominated in the north of both
Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia, while the Turkic
Karachays and Balkars formed majorities in the mountainous south,
it would have been practical to create two ethnically homogeneous
entities: Karachay-Balkaria and Kabardino-Cherkessia. However,
both republics became even more mixed following the return of
Balkars and Karachays from forcible deportation after World War
Two. As a result, some territories remain disputed, mainly areas
formerly inhabited exclusively by Balkars. In attempts to divide the
republics, territorial competition could kindle open conflicts.
With the collapse of the USSR, ethno-centric movements
mushroomed. Several inter-ethnic disputes escalated as economic
conditions stagnated, law enforcement broke down, and new elites
emerged to challenge for political office.55 The notion of ethnic selfdetermination became dominant during the early 1990s. It was
based on the premise that certain ethnic groups, whether because
they were indigenous, had been repressed, or suffered deportations,
possessed priority in the ownership of land and assets. Such
assertions spilled over into territorial claims or demands for
financial compensation. In addition, because administrative borders
did not coincide with ethnic boundaries, portions of some ethnic
groups were non-titular minorities in republics where they had no
28
ETHNO-NATIONAL DISPUTES
national rights. The smaller ethnicities complained about
discrimination and persecution, the larger ones monopolized power
and resources, while others were excluded altogether from the
political and economic spoils.56 A plethora of territorial, ethnonational, and political disputes pepper the North Caucasus. It is
valuable to consider the most significant cases, as they could spark
confrontations.
The Circassians are divided between three republics (Adygea,
Karachay-Cherkessia and Kabardino-Balkaria) and two districts (the
Mozdok district in North OssetiaAlania and the Shapsug district in
Krasnodar krai). The revived Circassian national movement
includes Adygean, Kabardin, Abaza and Cherkess populations
demanding greater self-determination. Activists in Russia and
abroad are seeking to reinstate Circassia on the map of the
Caucasus, and have called on all Circassians to declare a single
identity and press for the reunification of three Circassianpopulated republics: Adygea, Kabardino-Balkaria, and KarachayCherkessia. This would entail the breakup of the latter two republics
and the formation of a new autonomous unit as the first step toward
Circassian independence.
The International Circassian Association (ICA) was established in
the early 1990s, to unite Circassians from Kabardino-Balkaria,
Karachay-Cherkessia, Adygea and the diaspora. It sought to more
clearly define Circassian identity for purposes of national
unification, and tried to achieve its goals through negotiations with
Moscow. Circassian nationalism was almost totally detached from
Islamic influence, and during the 1990s Chechen attempts failed to
enlist activists in the war against Russia. However, as Moscow
rejected Circassian proposals for the repatriation of the diaspora and
the creation of a single Circassian republic, young activists became
more militant. In particular, the obstruction of Circassian
immigrants seeking to flee the civil war in Syria has contributed to
29
CONFLICT ZONES
radicalizing Circassian groups in the North Caucasus.
On May 21, 2013, Circassians worldwide marked the 149th
anniversary of the end of the Russo-Caucasus War, which involved
the genocide and mass expulsions of the indigenous populations.
Kabardino-Balkaria held several events on the anniversary,
including a rally in the capital Nalchik.57 The leadership of the
republic was also present, underscoring the political importance of
the event. On October 31, 2013, the Kabardino-Balkarian
parliament approved an appeal to the federal government to assist in
repatriating over 150,000 Syrian Circassians to the North
Caucasus.58 Republican governments are seeking ways to support
their ethnic kindred and inadvertently laying the conditions for
future conflicts with Moscow. Circassians throughout the northwest
Caucasus are outraged over the holding of the February 2014 Winter
Olympic Games in Sochi, the center of the region where genocide
was committed by the Russian government. 59 They seek an
acknowledgement of the 1860s genocide and claim that Olympic
construction has led to the destruction of numerous historical
landmarks, including the mass graves of Circassians slaughtered by
Tsarist troops. Kremlin refusal to recognize the genocide and its
exploitation of the Olympics to obliterate the memory of the
indigenous inhabitants will further alienate Circassians from
Moscow.
Karachay-Cherkessia has a population of 477,859, with four
indigenous groups and a large Russian minority.60 The Karachay, a
Turkic-speaking people closely related to the Balkars in neighboring
Kabardino-Balkaria, comprise a plurality of 194,324 people, or 41%
of the total population. Ethnic Russians come second, numbering
150,025 people, comprising 31.6%. The Cherkess (Circassian)
population is 56,466, or almost 12% of the population. The Abaza,
who are closely related to Circassians and the Abkhaz, make up
7.8%, or 36,919 people, and the Nogays, another Turkic-speaking
30
ETHNO-NATIONAL DISPUTES
group, number 3.3% or 15,654 inhabitants.
Circassians in Karachay-Cherkessia complain that since the
majority population is Karachay and Russian, they are deprived of
fair representation and equal access to resources. 61 They also
demand state support for their culture and language. Karachays and
Circassians are in conflict over representation in the republican
government. Clashes took place during the first presidential
elections in May 1999. Karachays oppose any increase in the
number of Circassians settling in the republic and challenging their
political and economic positions. The Karachay national movement,
Jamagat, was one of the first to organize and lobby for the division
of Karachay-Cherkessia. Its claims were based on the status of the
Karachay as the larger titular group and the restoration of preWorld War Two autonomy.
Circassian organizations warn that discriminatory policies by
Karachay elites may lead to destabilization. In November 2004,
protesters stormed a government building in Karachay-Cherkessias
capital Cherkessk and occupied the office of President Mustafa
Batdyev demanding his resignation. In August 2012, Karachay
police officials clashed with a group of Circassian youths marching
through the capital.62 Conflicts over ethnic self-determination focus
on demands that the five major ethnic groups be recognized as
having the status of constituent peoples of the republic. While the
Karachay, Cherkess, and Cossack movements assert that they once
possessed their own territorial autonomy and were simply restoring
it, the Abaza and Nogay movements seek the formation of national
districts. The struggle between the republics main political forces
center on the administrative structure and whether to pursue
federalization or division along ethnic principles.
To counter Circassian demands, Karachay officials have employed
divide and rule tactics by supporting other minority claims for
31
CONFLICT ZONES
distinct ethnic districts. In 2006, an Abaza district was established
near Cherkessk, although it contains only five villages with a
population of 17,000 people, less than half of the entire Abaza
population residing in the republic. In 2007 A Nogay district was
also formed in the northern part of Karachay-Cherkessia, made up
of about 16,000 people and five rural settlements. These enclaves are
perceived as ethnic fortresses. The Nogay also have disputes with
neighboring groups and some activists seek their own autonomous
region across several republican borders. Rivalries persist over
Dagestani territories in the Nogay steppe, with Chechens over the
Shchelkov district, and with Cossacks in Stavropol krai.
The main Terek Cossack demand is recognition as an indigenous
ethnic group, which would entail enhanced access to government
jobs and resolution of their land disputes. Cossack leaders believe
they have a special historical role safeguarding Russian national
interests in the Caucasus by preventing separatism. 63 However,
Cossack spokesmen complain that many young people are leaving
the region due to a lack of economic opportunities and inadequate
state support.
Kabardino-Balkaria has a population of 859,939, with three
ethnicities predominating. Kabardins make up 57.2% of the total,
with 490,453 people. Russians form 22.5%, with 193,155 inhabitants.
Balkars constitute 12.7% of the population, with 108,577 people.
The rest of the population includes Ossetians, Turks, Armenians
and Chechens. The structure of Kabardino-Balkaria has passed
through various permutations. As a result, similarly to other North
Caucasus republics, it is widely regarded as an artificial territorial
construct.64 After 1957, when Balkars were allowed to return from
forced exile, it was territorially reconfigured with the separation of
the Nogay steppe and its distribution among Dagestan, ChechnyaIngushetia and Stavropol krai. The loss of this important economic
32
ETHNO-NATIONAL DISPUTES
region sparked dissatisfaction among Kabardins and Balkars and
laid the foundations for territorial disputes with neighbors.
In 1943, Balkars and Karachays were exiled en masse to Central Asia
by the Soviet regime. They were officially rehabilitated after 1957
and allowed to return to their homeland. Because of these dramatic
population movements, the boundaries between ethnic groups
remained in flux and there is little consensus on their permanence.65
Ethnic disputes are again surfacing in Kabardino-Balkaria, once
considered the most stable republic in the region. Balkar resentment
is visible over the predominant role of the Kabardins in political,
economic, and social institutions. This compounds their grievances
over insufficient compensation for prior deportations, when much
of their traditional land was awarded to Kabardins and other
groups. 66 Kabardins argue that Balkars seek to gain as much
mountain property as possible in order to create their own ethnic
territory and secede from Kabardino-Balkaria. During the 1990s, as
Russian out-migration increased the Kabardin majority, Kabardin
activists sought greater autonomy from Russia, while Balkars feared
the changing demographics.
Some nationalists have called for the unification of Balkar and
Karachay territories in Kabardino-Balkaria and KarachayCherkessia to form a single republic within the Russian Federation.
Others have called for the full independence of these merged
territories and separation from Russia. Balkar nationalists express
fears about the rise of Circassian nationalism and demands for an
independent Circassia. Redrawing borders between republics
continues to be debated in the region. A united Circassia and a
united Karachay-Balkaria could be created in place of the patchwork
of republics with mixed ethnicities. However, because of numerous
ethnically diverse areas, voluntary separation would be a difficult
demographic challenge and necessitate extensive population
exchanges.
33
CONFLICT ZONES
ETHNO-NATIONAL DISPUTES
Ossetian-Ingush conflict over Prigorodny district in North Ossetia
Alania. The area was annexed by North Ossetia after the Soviet
deportation of the Ingush in February 1944, and the dispute was
reignited after their return in the late 1950s. The Ingush were the
third largest ethnic group in North Ossetia, numbering 35,300 (5.2%
of the population), when violence erupted in October 1992. About
30,000 people, practically the whole Ingush population of
Prigorodny district and the capital Vladikavkaz, fled North Ossetia
during the conflict. Ossetian units expelled Ingush residents,
assisted by the Russian military. Over 300 people from both sides
were killed or remain unaccounted for.
North OssetiaAlania has a population of 712,980, in which
Ossetians form a 65.1% majority (459,688 people); Russians come
second with 20.8% (147,090), while the Ingush number only 4%
(28,336 people). The Prigorodny conflict has not been resolved,
since most Ingush refugees cannot return home. Although the
district is part of North Ossetia, the April 1991 Federal Law on the
Rehabilitation of the Repressed Peoples remains in force and the
Ingush retain hopes for a change of status for the district.
As Moscow strengthened Ossetian influence by recognizing the
independence of South Ossetia, a territory in Georgia captured by
Russian forces in August 2008, Ossetian leaders may become even
less amenable to reconciliation with the Ingush over Prigorodny
district. 69 North Ossetian nationalists have campaigned for
unification with South Ossetia within the Russian Federation. In
July 2013, the President of South Ossetia, Leonid Tibilov, expressed
his support for unification.70 For the time being, Moscow is unlikely
to agree because this could spark new territorial disputes, as
Ossetians are not the only nation divided by a border.
Ingushetia has a population of 412,529, in which the Ingush form a
94.1% majority, with 385,537 inhabitants, and the Chechens a
35
CONFLICT ZONES
minority of 4.6%, with 18,765 people. Chechnyas population of
1,268,989 has a Chechen majority of 95.3%, or 1,206,551 people,
with small minorities of Russians, Kumyks, and others. Since the
division of Chechnya-Ingushetia in 1991, a dispute has simmered
over villages in the Sunzha district of Ingushetia, which is claimed
by both capitals. The border between the two republics was never
formally established after Moscow transferred the demarcation
process to the republican governments.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has unsettled the region by
vowing to reintegrate Chechnya and Ingushetia. On April 18, 2013,
Chechen and Ingush police clashed following an incursion by 300
Chechen law enforcement agents into Sunzha.71 The Chechen side
claimed that the police were simply chasing militants. In February
2013, Grozny began to implement legislation claiming de jure
control over disputed villages. The armed incursion indicated that
Kadyrov was prepared to act on long-standing land claims. The
territorial dispute is producing a nationalist backlash among the
Ingush and enabling governor Yunus Yevkurov to claim he is
defending the nations interests.
Some Russian experts believe Moscow is pushing Chechnya and
Ingushetia toward amalgamation, a move that is highly unpopular
in Ingushetia. Ingush leaders warn that if Grozny starts redrawing
its border with Ingushetia, the latter will demand the return of
Prigorodny district and the right riverbank of Vladikavkaz in North
OssetiaAlania. Equally worrisome, republican leaders have formed
police units consisting of recruits from the titular nationalities.
Hence, the campaign against militants may escalate into an interethnic struggle between republic-level forces. This policy of
ethnification, designed to help republics integrate young people
and combat terrorism, has spread to other republics, with the
danger that the Chechen-Ingush standoff could be a harbinger of
another destabilizing trend across the region.
36
ETHNO-NATIONAL DISPUTES
CONFLICT ZONES
federation with full territorial autonomy for each nationality in its
historical homeland. Avars and other groups oppose this initiative,
as they believe demographic size is more relevant than historical
origins.
Dargin militants have demanded a separate homeland inside
Dagestan. In response, the Dagestani government has affirmed that
internal borders are permanent. 75 Rivalries between Avars and
Dargins over leadership positions have also led to growing political
marginalization among other ethnic groups. The Nogay remain
opposed to any encroachment on their land by people from the
mountain regions. Their grievances have revived calls for autonomy.
Birlik, the Nogay national movement, supports the creation of a
Nogay autonomous region combining northern Dagestan with coethnics in Chechnya and Stavropol krai.
Dagestans Chechens are demanding that the Dagestani authorities
resettle them in the towns where they lived before their deportation
to Central Asia in February 1944, after which Laks and Avars were
resettled in their homes. 76 Conflicts are possible during the
restoration of the Chechen Aukhovsky district, planned after Lak
resettlement is complete.77 Chechens and Avars live parallel lives:
believers visit separate mosques and youths are ethnically polarized.
Chechens feel discriminated against and unprotected by the police.
Avars dominate local security services and state institutions and
want to preserve the status quo. They fear that if the district
becomes Chechen, it will be their turn to suffer discrimination.
Several conflicts are brewing in an area where Chechens have
territorial claims, especially with Kumyks, Laks, Avars and Cossacks.
Avars suspect Chechens of irredentism and interpret calls by some
activists for a united Chechen-Dagestani state as disguised attempts
to annex the Aukhovsky district. Meanwhile, Kumyk villages have
protested against Lak resettlement and creation of the Novolaksky
38
ETHNO-NATIONAL DISPUTES
district on what they consider their ancestral lands. 78 Kumyks
historically inhabited most of Dagestans lowlands. After the mass
migration of other groups from the mountains to the plains and
their own forcible relocation to the lands of deported Chechens,
Kumyks became dispersed minorities on territories they viewed as
their homeland.
Dagestans Khasavyurt district bordering Chechnya is rife with
territorial disputes between Chechens, Kumyks, Laks, Avars and
Andys.79 Land disputes are a major problem, including Kumyk
resentment over land encroachments by Avars, Dargins and Laks.
Kumyk leaders are also dissatisfied with the distribution of top
government positions among other ethnic groups. Kumyk
complaints to officials in Moscow have been ignored and their anger
was compounded by the murder of a Kumyk leader, Yusup Ajiev, on
April 19, 2013. There is a danger that young people will turn to
militancy if Kumyk grievances are not officially addressed
The problems of divided cross-border peoples also remain
unresolved in Dagestan. Some ethnicities, including Lezgins, Tats,
and Tsakhurs, straddle the border region with Azerbaijan. More
than a third of the regions Lezgin population lives in Azerbaijan as
well as the majority of Tsakhurs and Tats. Lezgins view themselves
as politically marginalized and separated from ethnically kindred
groups such as Aguls, Rutuls and Tabasarans, which reduces their
political influence. Lezgins have developed a separatist movement in
Dagestan and some activists have advocated the political unification
of Lezgins in Dagestan and Azerbaijan. One wing of Sadwal, the
Lezgin national movement, seeks to establish a united Lezginistan as
an autonomous republic within the Russian Federation separate
from Dagestan.80
Official proposals to divide Dagestan into four distinct
administrative districts may be designed to facilitate closer central
39
CONFLICT ZONES
control. Instead, it could inflame inter-ethnic tensions and separatist
trends. The ethnic composition of each district will differ from the
republic as a whole and increase the influence of some ethnicities
while weakening others.81 The dominance of specific groups could
bolster autonomist sentiments. Persistent ethnic rivalries in
Dagestan are compounded by the emergence of armed rebellion and
escalating confrontations between powerful interest groups.82 Such
conflicts place Moscow in an unenviable position of favoring one
side in a dispute and alienating rivals, attempting mediation, or
avoiding involvement and thus undercutting its influence. The
outbreak and escalation of inter-communal clashes in Dagestan will
not benefit Moscow, as this will make the region increasingly
ungovernable and could lead to the republics disintegration.
40
ETHNO-NATIONAL DISPUTES
Nationalists thrive where government institutions are not viewed as
fully legitimate, especially where state building is incomplete.84 In
addition, it cannot be assumed that younger generations with no
experience of war will avoid xenophobia and conflict. Ethnic
separation in education, employment, residence and marriage in
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosova and Macedonia can foster animosity.
In the midst of economic stagnation this can generate feelings of
injustice and leave people susceptible to nationalist appeals.85
Bosnia-Herzegovina remains divided along ethno-national lines,
with citizens polarized around their respective identities. 86 The
dysfunctionality of the Bosnian state, coupled with Serbian support
for autonomy or even secession and Croatian dissatisfaction with
minority status, are spurring Bosniak nationalism as a defense
against rival political and territorial claims. Bosnias institutional
gridlock and economic stagnation have resulted in disillusionment
with multi-ethnicity or tri-ethnicity, which blocks decision-making
at various administrative levels. Meanwhile, nationalist leaders
perceive the civic option, or the principle of citizenship not based on
ethnic identity, as harmful to the group interests of all three major
collectivities that they claim to represent.
One of the primary goals of the November 1995 Dayton accords was
to give the three nations a stake in a single country through a
protective veto over decision-making. However, the agreement was
not designed to build an integrated state in which the central
government in Sarajevo possessed decisive authority. Instead, it
created a complex administrative structure, in which ethnic
balancing predominated and layers of governmental bureaucracy
contributed to gross inefficiency. This system has obstructed
decision-making, especially as ethno-national demands prevail over
civic-state interests.
41
CONFLICT ZONES
The assumption among EU leaders that the scaling down of
international supervision and the magnetic attraction of EU
integration would convince Bosnias political leaders to pursue the
rigorous reforms necessary for accession is proving illusory.
Nationalist parties are more focused on preserving their
particularistic interests than in constructing an integral state that
would qualify for EU entry. This was evident after the October 3,
2010 general elections when Serbian and Croatian national parties
impeded the formation of a new state-level government until
December 2011. Attempts at constitutional reform to prevent entity
and ethnic blocking of state legislation and ensure smoother
government operations have been consistently obstructed through
entity voting.
Ethno-politics has stymied the development of state citizenship,
programmatic pluralism, individual rights, and a competitive
democracy. Ethno-nationalist parties, treated by international actors
as the sole representatives of ethnic collectivities, are primarily based
on patronage and clientelist networks. Their leaders are adamant
that the civic principle cannot be applied in Bosnia, but only a
system of inter-group balancing. There is no single Bosnian political
elite that transcends national divisions and no common panBosnian identity has developed since the war. 87 The younger
generation has no tradition of multi-ethnic Yugoslavism and there is
minimal interaction between ethno-national groups. The
educational systems are separated and there is no daily interaction
between citizens in the two entities. This leaves young people
susceptible to indoctrination and political manipulation.
President Milorad Dodik of the Serb Republic (SR) asserts that the
Bosnian state is not functioning and the SR must develop its
sovereignty. He opposes the state government on the grounds that it
is abrogating powers that belong to the two Bosnian entities and is
engaged in a policy of centralization and Bosniak Muslim
42
ETHNO-NATIONAL DISPUTES
domination. Dodik claims to be reclaiming the autonomy of the
Serb entity, but could push for full-scale separation if internal
conditions deteriorate. Bosnia-Herzegovina remains vulnerable to
further political disturbances, with a potential for renewed interethnic violence.88
The prospective secession of the SR could also ignite demands for
the separation of the Sandzak from Serbia, as Muslims in this region
identify with Bosniaks. SR secession will also stimulate demands for
the partition of northern Kosova containing a Serb majority and the
separation of the Presevo valley from Serbia where Albanians form a
majority. Such scenarios may also encourage governments to stage
crackdowns to prevent separatism, while nationalist militants may
arm themselves on the pretext of defending national integrity and
ensuring state survival.
The Albanian question remains one of the unresolved state-building
puzzles in the Western Balkans and continues to preoccupy
international agencies. Similarly to the Circassians in the North
Caucasus, sizeable Albanian and Serb populations are dispersed
between several states. Pan-Albanian movements have benefited
from little public support and Albanian leaders have steered clear of
irredentism.89 Nonetheless, nationalist sentiments could capture the
public imagination if a confluence of factors crystalizes, including
prolonged economic distress, frustration with mainstream political
parties, Albanias indefinite exclusion from the EU, Kosovas
stagnation, clashes between Albanians and Slavs in Macedonia, and
U.S. regional disengagement.
The idea of a Greater Albania, or an Ethnic Albania, has been
promulgated by some intellectuals but with little political traction.
No Albanian leader in Kosova or Macedonia has been willing to
surrender his authority to a center in Tirana and become a regional
administrator. Albania itself has not been a magnet of attraction,
43
CONFLICT ZONES
either economically or politically, for those Albanians who emerged
from a wealthier Yugoslavia. Additionally, the international
environment was not conducive to Albanian expansionism,
especially as American and European restraints on Tirana
guaranteed that Albanias leaders did not play the irredentist card
even at the height of the war over Kosova in 1999.
Nonetheless, pan-Albanianism can become more appealing in both
Albania and Kosova. Kosova has witnessed the electoral emergence
of the Movement for Self-Determination (MSD), with a program
that combines anti-corruption, national sovereignty and panAlbanianism. Persistent public dissatisfaction may steer toward
ethno-nationalism if Kosova is blocked from entering the major
international institutions. MSD has proposed a referendum on
Kosovas unification with Albania and views such a merger as
creating a stronger state.90
An additional problem is the division of Kosova, in which four
northern municipalities with Serbian majorities do not recognize
the countrys independence. An EU-brokered agreement between
Belgrade and Prishtina in April 2013 was declared a breakthrough in
normalizing relations, whereby an Association of Serbian
Municipalities was established which supposedly recognized the
legitimacy of the Kosova state. The government in Prishtina claimed
that the plan would bring the northern municipalities under the
control of central institutions. However, political opponents view
the arrangement as the thin end of a wedge toward Serbian
autonomy similar to the Bosnian model. Meanwhile, Serb minority
leaders assert that the denial of genuine self-determination will
either lead to local unrest or a Serbian exodus.
Following the Albanian insurgency in northwestern Macedonia
during the summer of 2001, the Ohrid Framework Agreement was
brokered between Albanian guerrillas and the Macedonia
44
ETHNO-NATIONAL DISPUTES
government under U.S. and EU supervision. Much of the agreement
has been implemented, including cultural autonomy, proportional
Albanian representation in state institutions, and use of the
Albanian language in municipalities where Albanians form 20% or
more of the population. Nonetheless, several factors have
undermined Albanian commitments to the Macedonian state. These
include the rise of Slavic Macedonian nationalism inflamed by the
name dispute with Greece, state capture by the ruling VMRO
(Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization) party since
August 2006, the growing prominence of the Macedonian Orthodox
Church, a decline in the independence of the media and the
judiciary, the limited number of Albanians in senior government
positions and public enterprises, and setbacks in administrative
decentralization and Albanian language use.
The rights given to Albanians under the Ohrid accords have also led
to discontent among the Slavic Macedonian majority, who feel a loss
of privileged status in the state sector amidst charges that merit has
been sacrificed for ethnic quotas. This has heightened resentment
against Albanians and opposition to power sharing. Such frictions
can be politically manipulated to fuel inter-ethnic disputes. Violent
clashes between Macedonians and Albanians have erupted on
occasion and contribute to dividing the two communities. Opinion
polls indicate that two thirds of residents in Albanian-majority
districts in western Macedonia support the creation of a common
Albanian state with Albania and Kosova, and more than half think it
will soon materialize. 91 Although no active mobilization for
separatism is underway, this could change if Macedonias coalition
government with Albanian representatives collapses.92
The national renaissance campaign and costly urban renewal
program (Skopje 2014) pursued by the administration are focused
on asserting Macedonian identity and developing an ancient
heritage that largely neglects Albanians and other minorities. The
45
CONFLICT ZONES
attempt to depict the current Slavic-speaking Macedonians as direct
descendants of ancient Macedonians has magnified conflicts with
Greece and alienated the Albanian population. If state-sponsored
nation-building is pursued at the cost of Macedonias international
integration, it will delegitimize the state among Albanians and
increase demands for federalization.
The prospect for inter-state wars in the Western Balkans or
insurgencies sponsored by rival governments appears remote.
Nonetheless, armed conflicts generated by vigilante militias or
armed civilians are possible in parts of the region. BosniaHerzegovina, Kosova and Macedonia remain as candidates for
instability if inter-ethnic discords escalate in a deteriorating
economic climate. This partially mirrors conditions in the North
Caucasus, where a combination of economic pressure, government
illegitimacy and social anger is even more likely to find outlets in
inter-ethnic confrontations.
ETHNO-NATIONAL DISPUTES
mounting problems. The more prominent political role of the
Russian Orthodox Church also contributes to nationalist and
religious polarization. Frequent attacks by Russian mobs on
Caucasian and Central Asian residents in Moscow and other large
cities are alienating these populations from Slavic inhabitants and
stoking radicalization in the North Caucasus. This could also further
impoverish the region, as workers may no longer feel safe in seeking
employment in Russias major cities.
According to analysts in Moscow, Russian public opinion is rapidly
shifting toward aggressive intolerance. 93 The Levada Center
estimates that the number of people who favor a mono-ethnic state
has doubled in recent years. An increasing number of Russians favor
a mono-ethnic state, including 43.4% of Muscovites. Thirty percent
of all Russians and 48.9% of Muscovites feel antipathy toward
people from the Caucasus, while 80.6% of Muscovites want migrants
deported. Despite being Russian citizens, natives of the North
Caucasus are the most despised ethnic group. Russias acquisition of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia will intensify Russian dissatisfaction
that two more problem areas have been added to the North
Caucasus, which already absorbs a disproportionate share of the
federal budget.
Russian nationalists have posited plans to transform the federation
into a national state through the creation of an ethnic Russian
Republic and the dissolution of non-Russian republics.94 However,
nationalists face a contradictory predicament. Although they do not
want Moscow to financially support the North Caucasus, their
imperialist sentiments prevent them from backing outright
secession.95 The most specific programs for federal restructuring
have come from Russian National Unity (RNU) and Pamyat
(Memory), calling for the formation of a purely Russian republic
and unification with ethnic Russian regions in neighboring
countries. Pro-Kremlin nationalist groups, such as Velikaya Rossiya
47
CONFLICT ZONES
(Great Russia), also seek the creation of a unitary Russian state
and the reunification of ethnic Russian lands in nearby states. The
National Democratic Party (NDP) demands equal rights between
predominantly ethnic Russian regions and non-Russian republics,
although some members prefer to split the Federation into
independent states.
The starkest example of Slavic separatism concerns the Cossack
population, which has rediscovered its identity since the demise of
the Soviet Union. An increasing number of Cossacks believe they
form a nation oppressed by Moscow that deserves territorial selfdetermination. 96 Three of the most important of the thirteen
Cossack voiskas or hosts, the Don, Kuban, and Terek, have their
roots in the North Caucasus. During 19921996, Cossack
organizations proclaimed several Cossack republics, including
Batalpasha, Zelenchuk-Urup, and a Don Republic in the territory of
Rostov oblast. Some Terek Cossacks also declared secession from
Dagestan and claimed territories in Chechnya. Paradoxically, the
Kremlin has assisted the upsurge in Cossack separatism through its
use of Cossack units to help control the North Caucasus, but it
opposes their territorial autonomy. Any viable Cossack republic
would have to be hacked out of several non-Russian regions and
would provoke intense local resistance.
Russian nationalists target natives of the North Caucasus and the
stereotype of the Islamic radical and terrorist is commonplace
throughout Russia. This is reminiscent of the Albanian and Bosniak
Muslim stereotypes propagated by the Milosevic regime, which
provided justifications for the mass murders and expulsions
perpetrated during the 19911999 wars. However, Moscow cannot
employ similar policies in the North Caucasus on the pretext of
defending ethnic Russian and Christian interests from an alleged
mortal danger. The ethnic Russian component in the North
Caucasus has been steadily declining since the collapse of the Soviet
48
ETHNO-NATIONAL DISPUTES
Union and Russians form shrinking minorities in all seven
republics. Between 1989 and 2002, the percentage of ethnic Russians
in the overall population decreased from 26% to under 15%, or from
1.36 million in 1989 to about 940,000 in 2002. The indigenous
populations grew from 66% to 80%, or from 3.5 to 5.3 million. The
exodus of Russians is accelerating and some estimate that the
Russian component will fall to under 2% during the next decade.
Ethnic Russians constitute under a third of the population of the
entire North Caucasus Federal District (NCFD), although this also
includes Stavropol krai where Russians form a substantial
majority.97 The 2010 census showed that Russians formed only 3.6%
of Dagestans population, down from 9.2% in the 1989 census. In
Chechnya, Russians comprised nearly 25% of the population in
1989, but their share fell to less than 2% by 2010. In Ingushetia,
Russians decreased from 13.2% to under 1% in 2010. In North
OssetiaAlania, the decline was from 30% to 20.6%. In KabardinoBalkaria, Russians decreased from 32% to 21.5%. In KarachayCherkessia, the fall was from 42.4%, when Russians were the largest
ethnic group, to 31.4%. Even in Adygea, which has traditionally had
a Russian majority, the share of Russians diminished from 68% in
1989 to 63.6% in 2010.
Stavropol krai is the largest territory in the NCFD, with a
population of 2.8 million. Nearly two-thirds of the ethnic Russians
who live in the NCFD, about 2.3 million people, reside in Stavropol
krai and comprise almost 81% of the population.98 Around 150,000
North Caucasians also live in the territory. The Russian population
has been stagnant over the past decade and its share of the total has
dropped by 2%.
The growth of the Muslim population in Stavropol krai has spurred
Islamophobia and Caucasiaphobia among ethnic Russians and
reinforced hostility between the two communities.99 Violent clashes
49
CONFLICT ZONES
have occurred between Russian ultra-nationalist skinheads and
Chechen residents, while Russian nationalists have staged rallies
against the presence of indigenous North Caucasians. According to
local analysts, Stavropol krai is rapidly becoming Russias Kosova
as a result of massive in-migration of North Caucasians and outmigration and low birth rates among Russians.100 In the southern
and eastern regions of the krai adjacent to the North Caucasus
republics, non-Russians exceed 50% of the population. This is
especially evident in areas near Dagestan, inhabited by Dargins and
Avars. Neftekumsky district has a long border with Dagestan, while
Kurskoy district borders Dagestan, Chechnya, North OssetiaAlania
and Kabardino-Balkaria. Chechens tend to reside in Kurskoy
district, while Avars live in Levokumsky district. The ratio of nonRussians to ethnic Russians in Kurskoy district is already 50/50.
Local Russians oppose Moscows policy of incorporating Stavropol
krai in the NCFD and a growing number doubt whether
maintaining control over the North Caucasus is worth the price. For
the Kremlin, the inclusion of Stavropol in the NCFD fosters the
impression that it fully governs the region. However, there is a
public campaign in Stavropol for secession from the NCFD. 101
Observers predict that soon after the Sochi Olympics, the district
will be reorganized, whether by incorporating Krasnodar, Rostov,
and other nearby ethnic Russian regions, or by separating the
eastern part of the North Caucasus, including Chechnya, Dagestan
and Ingushetia, from the rest of the North Caucasus.
Russian protesters in Stavropol have demanded the introduction of
a special migration regime with stringent controls along the krais
administrative border to insulate the region from the North
Caucasus. In a provocative initiative announced in August 2013, the
nationalist Russian Peoples Assembly prepared to declare Stavropol
krai an ethnic Russian republic.102 Its leaders contend that Russians
must follow the example of the North Caucasians by organizing on
50
ETHNO-NATIONAL DISPUTES
an ethnic basis. It would be difficult for Moscow to simultaneously
resist Russian separatism and contain secessionist insurgencies
throughout the North Caucasus. Attempts to create an ethnic
Russian republic would have immense implications for the entire
federation by provoking resistance among numerous subject
nations, enfeebling the centralized political structure, and hastening
Russias disintegration.
51
4 . R E L I G I O U S D I M E N SI O N S
In appraising the role of Islam in regional insurgencies, it is valuable
to compare the drivers of religious radicalism and the position of
traditional religious leaders. The Western Balkans has three major
religious affiliations closely tied to national identity: Sunni Muslim,
Catholic Christian and Orthodox Christian. However, ethnonationalism and independent statehood rather than religious
doctrine were the two key mobilizing devices during the Yugoslav
wars. In the case of Albanian national movements, multiconfessionalism has prevailed and religion played a marginal role in
any conflicts. Cross-ethnic religious affiliation among Muslims was
not a factor in the wars of national liberation from Yugoslavia.
Radical Islamists failed to gain a foothold in the region either
through significant public support or involvement in national
politics.
The population of the North Caucasus has a predominantly Islamic
affiliation. However, Islam in the region is not homogenous and
only transcends ethnic distinctiveness during popular struggles with
outside powers. Nonetheless, radical Islamism has increasingly filled
the political vacuum created by an authoritarian Russia, in which
government, law enforcement and the judiciary are not accountable
to the citizenry. The repressive policies of the Russian state and the
republican governments fuel the growth of religious militancy.
Additionally, the struggle for authority within the Islamic
Community has raised the stature of Islamists, who do not recognize
ethnic divisions but seek to create a pan-Caucasus Islamic state by
conducting revolutionary and revivalist transformations of local
53
CONFLICT ZONES
societies.
RELIGIOUS DIMENSIONS
a broad regional structure styled as a future Muslim Caliphate. As
pressures from the Russian government intensify, Islamist
mobilization grows in importance among diverse ethnic groups.106
Although religious separatism has largely supplanted overt national
separatism among insurgents, the longer-term ethnic factors will
become more prominent as conditions in the region deteriorate and
competition for power and resources escalates.
Islamists are often drawn from the intelligentsia and middle class.
Unemployed and socially frustrated youths are also susceptible to
religious propaganda with a concrete cause. Jihadism and Salafism
provide a mobilizing ideology and worldview, especially for young
people who have suffered at the hands of Russias security forces.
Salafist ideology has an appeal because of its egalitarianism and
disregard for social hierarchies. 107 Salafis criticize the poorly
informed Muslim leadership and have filled an ideological, social
and political vacuum. 108 They convince converts that they are
following the original tenets of Islam and the teachings of the Koran,
and do not recognize any of the Islamic schools that interpret
Prophet Mohammads words. Salafism offers a sense of solidarity
and community, a means for achieving specific goals, and a recipe
for creating a social order to replace failed state institutions. As a
result, its social and economic appeal is growing faster than its
theological precepts, although estimating the number of Salafis is
difficult.109
Moscow has tried to combat this phenomenon by branding all
Salafis as terrorists. It has also orchestrated periodic crackdowns and
arrests of devout Muslims who are not involved in armed militancy,
thus further alienating Islamic believers from the state.
Amendments to Russias laws On Extremism and On Combating
Terrorism give the FSB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD), the
Justice Ministry, and the General Prosecutors Office broad leeway
in arresting and torturing suspects. Indeed, Moscow contributed to
55
CONFLICT ZONES
Islamic radicalization by assassinating secular Chechen resistance
leaders, including Chechnyas President Aslan Maskhadov in March
2005 and his successor Abdul-Khalim Sadulayev in June 2006.
Although ideological links exist with the international jihadist
movement, the North Caucasus insurgency is a region-wide revolt
that stems from internal grievances.110 Insurrections in isolated and
mountainous areas historically represented the core of resistance
where Islam and customary law intertwined against Russian
colonialism. Ascribing the revolt to the global jihad exaggerates
the degree of unity and coordination between differing insurgencies.
According to Sagramoso, North Caucasus jihadists have not adopted
an explicitly anti-Western platform and have conducted few
terrorist acts against civilians or Western targets. They have mostly
attacked local officials and Russian security targets.111
A complex mix of political repression, economic deprivation,
personal frustration, and family vendettas fosters Islamist
insurrection. 112 There are numerous reasons for joining the
insurgency, given the absence of a secular alternative to the existing
system, in which legitimate political opposition is outlawed. 113
Rebellion entails a degree of risk and is seen as prestigious among
young people. The decline in agriculture has increased the migration
of young people into cities, which in turn creates social pressures.
Traditional authority has broken down, with lessened respect for
elders, while militant groups provide freedom from family ties and a
chance to join a new community. Islamist movements have
developed a subculture with its own symbols and language that
connects with the global Islamic heritage, exploits modern popular
culture, and appeals to youths. As wealth is concentrated in the
hands of a few dozen powerful families, corruption and exclusion
have also fueled armed resistance. Discontent stems from injustice,
corruption, and the inability to obtain work on merit. According to
56
RELIGIOUS DIMENSIONS
unofficial data, 70% to 80% of young people under 30 are
unemployed in the region.
Republican governments have tried to outlaw a broadly misdefined
Wahhabism, but their efforts have incited revolt. In the fall of
1999, the Kabardino-Balkarian authorities began a crackdown on
suspected Islamists, reflecting Moscows harder position on
religious militancy. Local Wahhabis were depicted as criminals and
terrorists trained by Chechen rebels and paid by Western
intelligence.114 Dagestans adoption of an anti-Wahhabism law in
2008 also criminalized many devout young Muslims who were not
jihadists. As a consequence, militants had little difficulty recruiting
youths traumatized by police abuse.115
The custom of blood feud as a form of traditional justice in kinshipbased societies has also ensured a constant inflow of new recruits to
the expanding resistance movement. 116 In traditional areas, the
blood feud requires revenge for either verbal humiliation or physical
attack. If any alleged or actual insurgent falls victim to police abuse,
members of the victims kinship network may demand vengeance.
Individuals seeking revenge join militant groups to enhance their
capabilities, and their actions are not always determined by
ideology.117
The traditional jamaats are territorial structures in autocephalous
Muslim societies, usually formed along ethnic lines and combining
several villages. They include collaboration in such activities as
territorial defense, agricultural work, and religious ritual in the Sufi
tradition.118 Jamaats are governed cooperatively by councils of elders
drawn from the segmented kinship networks, which are particularly
evident in Dagestan. They were revived when the Soviet Union
collapsed, as previously repressed Sufism became a mainstream
social force. However, the new official stature of Sufism created a
57
CONFLICT ZONES
vacuum in organized opposition to the government that was often
filled by Salafism.119
Jamaats can be organized to achieve both peaceful and militaristic
goals, while not all militants are members of jamaats. Many of the
original Salafist jamaats were religious organizations embracing
strict Islamic principles but rejecting violence. In the early 2000s, a
ban was introduced against a loosely defined Wahhabism
throughout the North Caucasus, accompanied by a campaign of
repression against suspected insurgents. Salafis were pushed
underground and became increasingly radicalized and linked with
the Chechen rebellion while engaging in self-defense against state
agencies.120
Several newly formed jamaats broke with their Sufi predecessors,
championed a Salafist interpretation of Islam, opposed the
traditional Islamic religious authorities, and resisted Russian
colonialism.121 Most militant jamaats are organized as self-help
networks providing social and economic support to members. Some
groups are believed to be involved in the drug trade and other illicit
activities that help raise finances. Although the insurgents are
predominantly radical Salafis, the majority of Islamists do not
violently oppose the Russian state. However, they are highly critical
of the corrupt and ostentatious lifestyles of republican officials and
the injustices perpetrated by the government, and condemn
traditional religious leaders as collaborators. Salafis are viewed as
strict in their beliefs but living according to their principles. By
contrast, Sufi clergy are perceived as being prone to worldly
temptations. In Dagestan and Ingushetia, young people often do not
trust the official Muslim clergy because they do not live according to
the values they preach.122
At the republican level, Salafist jamaats may have several thousand
members, led by an elected emir and governing institutions
58
RELIGIOUS DIMENSIONS
including a high council, a court, and educational networks. They
adhere to sharia, believed to be a set of divine laws, which prescribe
the content of social and political interaction. However, unlike
mainstream Sunnis, militants do not believe that either the
traditional social structures or the existing state can enforce sharia
and they seek to establish a new political order.
The more radical jaamats often form the backbone of the Salafistinspired insurgency and operate across ethnic lines. Their ultimate
goal is the creation of an Islamic state in the North Caucasus
founded on sharia law that would merge with the global umma
(Islamic community). The Salafist state-building strategy includes
establishing a judicial system based on sharia courts, enforcement of
sharia law, and tax collection to fund judicial functions and guerrilla
activities. 123 Judicial power is exercised by the Supreme Shariat
Court under the leadership of a qadi, an Islamic judge, appointed by
the emir and approved by the Majlis-ul-Shura or Supreme
Council.124 They also engage in publishing and distributing religious
literature, education, and funding young men to study in Arab
states.
Regional Insurgency
Although young people are generally more religious than the older
generation, only a small portion actively support violent jihad.
Additionally, not all followers of non-traditional Islam are violent
jihadists, while many violent jihadists are not followers of nontraditional Islam but join the insurgency for non-ideological
reasons. The presence of armed jihadists can polarize a population
and in response some villagers have armed themselves in case of
conflict. Russian officials and security forces rarely distinguish
between peaceful and military jamaats, and their repression of the
former stimulates the emergence of the latter. An additional
59
CONFLICT ZONES
headache for Moscow is the growing presence among insurgents of
ethnic Russian converts to Islam. Such individuals can more easily
infiltrate into Russian regions to engage in sabotage and terrorist
attacks.125
The North Caucasus insurrection has a primary Chechen origin.
Chechen resistance to Russian rule was divided between traditional
nationalists seeking to establish an independent secular state and
religious militants promoting a larger entity incorporating all the
republics. The Kremlin endeavored to demonize all Chechen
insurgents by denouncing them as terrorists with links to alQaeda.126 Indeed, all guerrillas are portrayed by Moscow as part of
the global jihad and not as indigenous people struggling for
independence. Additionally, official propaganda claims that
Chechen insurgents engage in terrorist activities around the world,
thus reinforcing their negative image as a universal threat.127
The Chechen national insurrection was increasingly Islamicized
after the mid-1990s largely because of the radicalizing experience of
military conflict with Russia.128 Religion was used for purposes of
mobilization and inspiration, with reference to the anti-Muscovite
religious wars of previous centuries. Religious radicalism was also
injected into the conflict through the presence of foreign jihadists,
often Arabs who arrived during the Chechen wars in the 1990s as
mujahideen volunteers. As in wartime Bosnia-Herzegovina, Arab
Salafis sought to merge with the native population by marrying local
women and spawning families. A few became respected military
leaders during the First Chechen War (19941996). One notable
example was the Saudi veteran of the Afghan-Soviet war, emir AlKhattab, who formed his own radical militia unit and served as the
chief link with international jihadists. However, there were no
organizational linkages between al-Qaeda and Chechen
insurgents.129
60
RELIGIOUS DIMENSIONS
Moscow claimed that one third of Chechen combatants were
mercenaries from the Middle East. In reality, foreign financing and
mujahideen volunteers had limited influence on the Chechen
resistance. The total number of Arab Islamist militants was
estimated at under 300.130 Their influence increased somewhat after
the First Russo-Chechen War when the notion of establishing an
Islamic state gained greater support. Unlike in Bosnia and Kosova,
whose statehood was widely accepted and where Western military
assistance terminated the destructive anti-civilian wars, Chechnya
became disillusioned by the lack of Western support. Without any
prospects for close ties with the West, in 1996 Chechnya was
declared an Islamic state.131
Shamil Basayev, the emir of the insurgent Liberation Army of the
Northern Caucasus, sought to unite Chechnya and Dagestan into a
single Islamic state imitating the Imamate of Imam Shamil that
resisted Tsarist Russia in the 19th century. In July 1999, a conflict
involving local Salafis erupted in several villages in the Tsumada
raiion in western Dagestan. Chechen guerrillas entered these villages
in September 1999 to defend a semi-autonomous Salafist enclave
and declared an Islamic Republic of Dagestan. Russian forces
eventually captured the villages and the Kremlin used the episode as
a pretext for launching the Second Chechen War. The Salafist
initiative was opposed by the majority of Dagestani Muslims who
feared a potential Chechen takeover of parts of their territory.
After Moscows re-invasion of Chechnya, the role of foreign and
local jihadists subsided. Chechnyas new leaders installed by
Moscow were staunch Sufis and blamed Salafis for the countrys
problems in order to undercut Salafist influences. Divisions between
local and foreign fighters have been underreported in the state
media. A similar situation prevailed in Bosnia-Herzegovina where
attempts to impose sharia law by foreign mujahideen were resisted
by Bosniak Muslims. In the North Caucasus, adat (customary law)
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CONFLICT ZONES
is irreconcilable with sharia, especially with regard to the institution
of the blood feud. For Salafis, jihad is a universal struggle to impose
a pure Islamic order. In contrast, the North Caucasus tradition of
ghazavat (holy war) served as an instrument of social mobilization
against external occupiers. Islam was primarily a valuable source of
joint identity that united numerous communities against a foreign
adversary.132
During the Russo-Chechen wars, Chechnyas key military leaders
such as Basayev established close ties with religious militants and
favored the creation of an Islamic state. However, their principal
aim was to liberate Chechnya from Russian rule. Strategists
calculated that in order to be successful the conflict had to be
expanded into other republics.133 With the death of Maskhadov in
March 2005 and the appointment of sheikh Abdul-Khalim Sadulaev
as president of the ousted Chechen government, the insurgency
acquired an increasingly Islamist dimension.134
Measures were taken to establish a more unified rebel structure and
all combat jamaats were organized into Caucasus Fronts, while their
leaders declared allegiance to Sadulaev as their Supreme Emir.
However, this integration occurred only at a higher strategic level, as
each jamaat continued to function largely independently. In June
2006, Russian special forces killed Sadulaev and the leadership of the
Chechen resistance passed to veteran rebel Dokka Umarov. Initially,
he was a secular figure who placed a greater emphasis on Chechen
liberation than on a regional jihad. However, he became
increasingly Islamicized and on November 21, 2007, declared a
region-wide Caucasus Emirate (CE)Imarat Kavkazto replace
the secular insurgent structures.135
It is disingenuous to claim that the Chechen war against Russia was
simply hijacked by religious radicals.136 In reality, Chechens have
been engaged in religious wars against Moscow since the 1780s or
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RELIGIOUS DIMENSIONS
have used religious symbolism to engender solidarity against
Russian invaders. The jihad declared by Umarov referred directly to
the tradition of Shamils multi-ethnic Imamate that resisted Tsarist
conquest in the 19th century. 137 Islam remains an integral and
unifying part of Chechen identity, even for the most secularized
nationalists.138 In November 1991, Johar Dudaev took an oath as
Chechen President on the Koran, the republic was termed Islamic,
and the struggle for independence was called jihad. Despite this use
of Islam to enhance national solidarity, until the first war with
Russia, the Chechen authorities remained committed to secularism.
The insurgent movement lacked political coherence after the death
of its military commander, Basaev, in July 2006. Although Umarov
cast himself as the Supreme Emir, the CE is a decentralized network
with limited cohesion and coordination. Local combat jamaats are
loosely tied together and subordinate to territorial sectors, which are
in turn nominally subordinate to the CEs fronts or provinces
designated as vilayats.139 The six vilayats include the territories of
Nokhchicho (Chechnya), Galgaine (Ingushetia), Iriston (North
Ossetia), Dagestan, the United Vilayat of Kabardia, Balkaria and
Karachay (Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, and Adygea),
and the Nogay Steppe (Krasnodar krai and Stavropol krai). An emir
who has taken the Islamic loyalty oath or bayat to the CE chief
heads each vilayat.140 In May 2009, Iriston and Galgaine were joined
together.
Local guerrilla cells act autonomously in small-scale missions, but
may combine under greater central coordination for larger
operations. Russian officials estimate the number of active fighters
to be between 400 and 1,500, while some calculate that the figure is
several times higher, with up to 15,000 insurgent auxiliaries
providing logistical support.141 The CEs capacity has expanded since
its inception. By the time of its five-year anniversary in October
2012, various units had carried out approximately 2,300 attacks.
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CONFLICT ZONES
Among the more active units is the Shariat jamaat in Dagestan.
The main concentration of Salafis is reported in several highland
villages in the Buinaksk district where people believe that
introducing sharia would end crime and disorder. 142 Salafist
strongholds have attracted young militants from various parts of the
republic. These parallel structures, which are not necessarily tied to
the insurgency, avoid any contact with officialdom and are no-go
zones for the police.143
In Dagestan, government policies have contributed to insurgent
recruitment. The authorities forced many peaceful Salafis into the
underground movement after a brutal campaign in 2007.144 The
rebels were later amnestied, but rejoined the insurgents in the fall of
2010 following targeted killings of Salafi leaders by local security
forces. The murder of jamaat leaders has failed to extinguish the
insurrection because they are easily replaced. In April 2013,
government forces conducted a large-scale counter-terrorism
operation in Gimry, a Dagestani village with historical significance
from the 19th century Russo-Caucasus War. Two famous imams and
natives of Gimry, Gazimagomed and Shamil, led the struggle against
Tsarist forces. Even though most residents of the village may not
support the insurgents they are also unwilling to surrender one of
their own people to the authorities.
The Ingush jamaat is based around a small guerrilla unit that has
been involved in raids on local officials and police forces. Official
killings of suspected insurgents invariably trigger blood feuds
between police and rebels. Since the 2010 capture of its leader, Emir
Magas, the Ingush insurgency has experienced a major overhaul of
its structure and leadership.145 Unlike Dagestan, where the jamaats
operate as independent groups, the Ingush jamaats were more
dependent on specific individuals, thus accounting for their limited
operations since 2010. However, there are indications that the
insurgency is being revived.
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CONFLICT ZONES
covering the North Caucasus meant the abolition of the Chechen
Republic of Ichkeria (ChRI). As a result, some secular Chechen
leaders believed that it was an FSB plot to eradicate Chechen
independence. Observers also debate the degree of control that
Chechen militants exert over the spreading insurgency, particularly
in the western part of the North Caucasus.
Even in relatively peaceful North OssetiaAlania, there are signs of
growing religious militancy. In July 2013, Interior Minister Artur
Akhmetkhanov criticized the Muslim community for allowing
radicalism to spread in the republic. North Ossetia has a
predominantly Christian population of approximately 80%. CE
leaders do not recognize the separate status of the republic and
consider it a part of Ingushetia. Such a position has alienated North
Ossetian Muslims from their Ingush co-religionists. 151 Tensions
between Muslims and Orthodox Christians have also been reported
in several locations.
The murder of North Ossetias deputy mufti, Ibragim Dudarov, by
unknown assailants on December 27, 2012, contributed to
undermining stability. 152 Dudarovs assassination was the first
killing of a high-ranking Muslim cleric in the republic, although
such murders are commonplace elsewhere. Nearly two-dozen
imams were killed throughout the region between 2008 and 2012,
mostly in Dagestan. There are several possible interpretations about
Dudarovs murder. Some observers pointed the finger at Islamic
militants. However, unlike in other republics, there are no visible
conflicts between radical Muslims and official clerics in North
Ossetia. As Dudarov was responsible for educational projects of the
Spiritual Board of Muslims, he may have been perceived as
spreading Islam in North Ossetia and killed by Russian radicals or
the security services. The murder will compound radicalization
among Muslim youth.
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RELIGIOUS DIMENSIONS
According to Russias interior ministry, North Caucasus militants
obtain funds mostly through robberies, extortion from local
businesses, and donations from sympathizers, while foreign
financing remains secondary.153 However, Moscow is concerned that
North Caucasus mercenaries fighting with Sunni rebels in Syria who
return to Russia will have gained first-hand fighting experience that
they can apply at home. Several hundred jihadists from Russia are
among some 1,000 foreign fighters in the Army of the Emigre
Jihadists and Helpers (JMA). The JMAs emir is reportedly an ethnic
Chechen called Abu Umar al-Shishani, a major player among Syrias
jihadi rebels.154 The Syrian civil war will provide guerrillas with
resources, contacts, and foreign recruits in the insurrection against
Russia.155 They could also prove less loyal to the leadership of the CE
and establish their own insurgent groups.156
CONFLICT ZONES
national communities and create ethnically pure states. For
instance, Serbian nationalists employed Christian Orthodox
religious symbolism and historical grievances against centuries of
Ottoman occupation to justify attacks on Muslim communities and
promulgate ethnic divisions. In some instances, Croatian Catholic
and Muslim Bosniak militants also engaged in such tactics against
rival ethnicities.
In order to discredit their political opponents, Serbian and Croatian
nationalists claim that Bosniaks are adopting militant Salafism.158 A
Salafi presence in the Western Balkans is not unique, as such groups
are active in every European country.159 But by alleging that Salafist
influence is expanding, leaders of the Serb entity in Bosnia pose as
defenders of endangered Serbian Christians. In reality, Islamism is
not a mainstream phenomenon, as the overwhelming majority of
Bosniak Muslims belong to the moderate Hanafi school of Sunni
Islam.160 Their secular attitudes have sparked disputes with foreign
Islamic radicals seeking to proselytize their puritanical beliefs.161
Nevertheless, an estranged minority may become susceptible to
ultra-conservative influences.
A Bosniak national identity has deepened since the 19921995 war
and is focused on maintaining the integrity of the Bosnian state.
Islam has served as a tool for consolidating ethnic unity rather than
being the final destination of identity politics.162 The notion of an
Islamic Bosniak state does not attract young people. It is estimated
that less than 10% of the Bosniak population favor the creation of a
Muslim Bosniak republic. Bosniak nationalism and Islamist
influence are more likely to expand if the country were to splinter.
Serbian and Croatian separatism could intensify the struggle within
the Islamic Community over the future of a smaller Bosniak state. A
partitioned Bosnia would heighten the grievances felt by the chief
victims of the war, convince a growing number of Bosniaks that they
had been betrayed by the Western powers, and open the terrain to
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RELIGIOUS DIMENSIONS
radical religious influences.
The Salafist movement in Bosnia-Herzegovina was imported during
the 19921995 war when mujahideen fighters from different parts of
the world volunteered to defend the Bosniaks. Their maximum
number was estimated at about 4,000 by the close of hostilities and
they generally lived in isolated rural communities. After the signing
of the Dayton accords in November 1995, about 1,300 remained in
the country and acquired Bosnian citizenship. Many of the Salafis
subsequently lost their citizenship under pressure from the
government and only 200 were left by 2010, most of them married
to local Bosniak women. There is no evidence that any sizeable
portion of the Muslim population has been influenced by the
Islamism of foreign fighters.163 Indeed, attempts to impose stricter
interpretations of Islam upon local Muslims provoked clashes
between Salafis and moderate Bosniaks who opposed the adoption
of sharia law.164
Salafist streams exist outside the control of the official Bosnian
Islamic Community and some of their members may be susceptible
to jihadist ideology either through contacts with a radical minority
among the diaspora or with non-Bosniak Salafis. Bosnias
intelligence services estimate there are about 3,000 followers of
Salafism in the country, mostly living in isolated communities.165
The Organization of Active Islamic Youth (OAIY), a radical Salafist
grouping with its headquarters in Zenica, was legally registered in
1995 and claims to have over 2,000 members, but this is probably an
exaggeration.166 The terrorist Mevlid Jasarevic who fired shots at the
U.S. embassy in Sarajevo on October 28, 2011, adhered to the radical
Takfir ideology advocating intolerance toward non-Muslims and
defying secular laws.167 Ismet Dahic, former head of the police in
Sarajevo, claimed it was possible that Serbian police agencies
recruited Jasarevic and sent him to Sarajevo to discredit the Bosnian
state.
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CONFLICT ZONES
RELIGIOUS DIMENSIONS
contrast, the major foreign Muslim influences in Bosnia emanate
from Turkey and other moderate Islamic states. Ankara has
increased its economic and cultural influences among Islamic
populations in the Balkans and contributes to undercutting Salafist
initiatives.172
In denigrating Kosovas aspirations toward independence, Belgrade
has manipulated Islamic terrorist stereotypes that carry resonance in
the West. Moscow adopted the same approach toward Chechnya.
Despite Belgrades assertions, the Kosova Liberation Army (KLA)
was a nationalist insurgent grouping lacking any jihadist
dimension.173 Even those who viewed it as a terrorist formation did
not consider it Islamist. Although some Salafist groups have been
active in Kosova through charity work and the restoration of
mosques, their ideology has limited political impact.174 Nonetheless,
religious conservatism may gain influence among some segments of
the population.175 Observers cite efforts by the religious Justice Party
to amend the constitution, which declares Kosova a secular state, to
allow hijab in public schools, and to construct a large mosque in
Prishtina to absorb the growing numbers of worshippers.
As in the North Caucasus, a rural-urban division is also evident in
religious practice in the Western Balkans. The neglect of rural
Albanian communities in Kosova may leave the door open to
Islamist militants.176 Secular Western aid agencies have not been as
active in rural Kosova as Saudi-based humanitarian groups,
operating under the umbrella of the Saudi Joint Committee for the
Relief of Kosovo and Chechnya (SJCRKC). Saudi-sponsored bodies
promote an intolerant form of Islam that could foster the creation of
militant territorial enclaves. Kosovar analysts attribute rising piety
among poorer sectors of society to the impact of Muslim charities.
Several Muslim NGOs have rebuilt mosques destroyed during the
1999 war, provide financial help to orphans, and conduct health and
educational projects. Salafis also seek to finance their activities by
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CONFLICT ZONES
controlling the most profitable mosques and recruiting new
members through religious gatherings and lectures.
A Salafist political movement, Bashkohu (Join), registered as a
political party in Kosova in 2013.177 The movement has organized
protests in Prishtina in support of building a grand new mosque and
against schools that prevent girls with hijabs from attending classes.
The partys official leader is Arsim Krasniqi, and one of its founders,
Fuad Ramiqi, was believed to have links with Middle East radicals.
However, most experts believe that the impact of Bashkohu on
political life will be minimal.
A resurgence of Islamic identity has been evident in Macedonia,
partly as a means of protection against the close links between the
ruling party and the Macedonian Orthodox Church. Any favoritism
shown to the Orthodox Church in Macedonias nation-building
project serves to strengthen Islamic identity among Slavic, Turkic
and Albanian Muslims. However, this does not translate into a rapid
growth in religious radicalism. There are reportedly 3,000 Salafis in
Macedonia, mostly among Albanian and Bosniak Muslims. 178
Foreign and local Islamists gain inroads through humanitarian and
educational work among the poorest sectors of society. Their
activities are financed by donations from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria
and Iran. Religious extremists recruit marginalized young people,
the unemployed and those without proper education, provide social
networks and a sense of solidarity, and emphasize religious identity
above ethnicity.
Official corruption and organized criminality also enable terrorist
cells to infiltrate the Balkans. The terrorist attack on Israeli tourists
in Burgas, Bulgaria on July 18, 2012 focused attention on a region
that some observers view as a potential hub of anti-Western
terrorism. Although militant Islamist influence is a marginal
phenomenon, the extreme acts of individuals can upset inter72
RELIGIOUS DIMENSIONS
communal relations. Isolated terrorist incidents can misrepresent
the Balkans as a major recruiting ground for jihadists. Some local
Salafis have reportedly participated in the civil war in Syria on the
side of the rebels.179 They usually join the al-Nusra Front, a Sunni
group affiliated with al-Qaeda in Iraq. In the case of Kosova, such
recruitment is evidently carried out in two mosques, in Prishtina
and Mitrovica. Some observers have criticized the Kosovar
government for remaining silent about the mobilization of young
Kosovars for the Syrian war. This could have a negative impact on
Kosova itself once these fighters return home with military
experience, radicalized beliefs and militant foreign contacts.
CONFLICT ZONES
Khalidiyya, which prevails in Dagestan, and the Qadiriyya-Kunta
Hajji, widespread in Chechnya and Ingushetia. Furthermore, these
two tariqas are subdivided into several virds (branches) and since
most virds are mono-ethnic, tariqa and vird membership is
intertwined with ethnic identity. Additionally, the Sufis have
advocated opposite policies in different republics: in Chechnya the
Qadiriyya supported the struggle against Russia, in Dagestan the
Naqshbandiyya favored remaining inside Russia.
Since the 11th century, Dagestan has been the center of Islamic
scholarship for the North Caucasus and supplied spiritual leadership
for the entire area. Resistance to Russian rule was conducted under
the banner of Islam and the leadership of the Sufi brotherhood. By
the end of the Soviet period, the majority of the indigenous people
identified as Muslims but avoided contact with the functionaries of
official Islam who were viewed as KGB agents.182 Traditional Islam
in Dagestan is prone to division along ethnic lines and some groups
have not recognized the new muftis who were predominately Avar.
Control over Islamic institutions merged with the republics internal
power struggles, in which ethnicity played a central role.183
A combination of dire economic conditions, government
ineffectiveness, and the inadequacy of the muftiate, provides fertile
soil for various forms of non-official Islam. The new Muslims
often address key social problems, are critical of traditional social
stratification, and seek to replace it with an inclusive Islamic
identity.184 Competition over Islam is not evident simply between
moderates and radicals, but among different forms of Islam,
including the traditional Islam characteristic of rural areas, which
amalgamates local customs (adat) and Sufi rituals, and modern
forms of reformist Islam in urban areas.185 The Islamic revival is
often a contradictory process, involving modernistic adaptations of
Islam together with utopian streams of salvationist Salafism. A
renovationist urban wave is seeking to dilute ethnicity and other
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RELIGIOUS DIMENSIONS
factors that fragment Islam. However, ideological pressures from
militant jamaats in combination with government persecution have
divided the renovationists and pushed some of their followers
toward armed militancy.
According to recent sociological surveys, the majority of young
Dagestanis is fundamentalist and wants sharia law established.186
70% of people in the fundamentalist religious underground are
young people, 58% believe that sharia laws must take precedence
over those of the state, and 30% are prepared to engage in open
protest against the government if it violates Islamic norms.
Nonetheless, because of overwhelming Sufi influence, 74.4% of
Muslims of all ages oppose Salafism and only 3.1% of young people
are prepared to join the militant Islamist underground.
Salafism has gained support by transcending ethnic and clan
divisions and rejecting the religious hierarchy. However, its strict
social and religious requirements and intolerance of national
traditions have proved unacceptable to most of the population.
Despite such sentiments, the periodic arrest of Salafi imams together
with the destruction of newspapers, books, videos of sermons,
prayer houses, and mosques, strengthens the radicals and
contributes to overcoming their internal divisions.
In order to bring about the Islamic revolution, insurgents have
assassinated state officials, attacked the security forces, bombed
civilian targets, and engaged in an economic war to destroy
Russias strategic assets. They have also increasingly targeted the
official Islamic clergy, accusing them of being religious apostates
and allies of Moscow. The appearance in Dagestan of political Islam,
particularly Salafism, compelled the Sufi clergy and the excommissars to join forces against it.187 Republican governments
throughout the North Caucasus have manipulated the alleged threat
of Wahhabism to raise their own profile as the defenders of
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CONFLICT ZONES
threatened national interests. One destabilizing trend visible in
Russia is the nationalization of religion, in which religious affiliation
becomes the most important component of ethno-national
identity.188 This phenomenon is especially threatening if it divides
Muslims from Christians and contributes to Russias ruptures. A
parallel divisive tendency is the politicization of religion, whereby
Russias Orthodox Church is assuming a more pronounced political
role and espousing Russian nationalist and imperialist doctrines.
According to Russian specialist Yana Amelina, a common Islamist
front links the North Caucasus with the Middle Volga and an
eclectic Islamist ideology has emerged combining Arab and local
views across the North Caucasus.189 Arab culture is not displacing
indigenous culture but supplementing it and making it more
difficult for Moscow to combat. Much of Russias Islamic clergy
feels threatened by manifestations of political Islam and cooperates
closely with the state apparatus in combating Islamist groups. The
officially sponsored Islamic authorities see Moscow as the main
source of funding and protection from radicals. Islamists, in turn,
condemn these bodies for subservience to the state and assisting in
the repression of Muslims. 190 Islamic clergy approved by the
government are major targets for insurgent attacks, as they are
labeled as apostates. Such assaults can lead to increasing
polarization between Sufis and Salafis even across ethnic lines.
Moderate leaders supporting a Muslim renaissance have been
targeted by republican authorities fearing a loss of power, as well as
by jihadists who view them as a source of competition for public
influence. For instance, in August 1998, Said-Magomed Abubakov,
the head mufti of Dagestan who transformed the Spiritual Board of
Muslims into an independent political player, was assassinated in
the center of the capital Makhachkala. Some analysts suspect that
the killing was arranged by Russian security forces to provoke
conflicts between moderate Sufis and radical Salafis and to make the
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RELIGIOUS DIMENSIONS
moderates dependent on the state for protection. Moscow seeks to
subjugate the most significant Islamic leaders and organizations and
to sever their international connections. There are plans to relocate
the Coordinating Center for Muslims of the North Caucasus from
Moscow to Mineralnyi Vody in Stavropol krai, and to re-establish
the unified office of a head mufti under Kremlin control.
Ingush authorities have tried to silence Khamzat Chumakov, a
widely respected cleric who has repeatedly criticized human rights
abuses and corruption within Ingushetias leadership.191 Chumakov
has acquired cult status in the region because of his sermons
denouncing bloodshed and Islamic extremism and exhorting
citizens to remain faithful to Ingush national values. He has been
pressured to step down as imam because the republics leader
Yevkurov is resentful of Chumakovs popularity among young
people who are jobless and alienated from the government.
In clear indications of a struggle over Islamic authority that also has
ethnic components, on August 3, 2013, the Sufi sheikh Ilyas-haji
Ilyasov was murdered in Dagestan. He became the third popular
cleric to be killed in recent years.192 Sheikh Said-Efendi Chirkeiski,
an ethnic Avar and one of the most prominent figures in the Sufi
hierarchy, was killed in August 2012. Sirazhutdin Khurikski, the
most influential Sufi sheikh in southern Dagestan, was murdered in
October 2011. While Chirkeiski had close ties to the authorities,
Khurikski, an ethnic Tabasaran, opposed the government. Ilyasov
was an influential Kumyk, popular for criticizing the administration
and the Spiritual Board of Dagestan. Various interests may have
benefited from his death. The Dagestani authorities and the
Spiritual Board no longer face an authoritative person who
challenges Avar domination at the expense of Kumyk interests.
Ilyasovs death also benefitted the Salafis, since he published
polemical articles against Salafist attacks on Sufism. Ilyasovs
murder damaged Kumyk interests. The slain cleric represented
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CONFLICT ZONES
Kumyk claims in multiple land disputes with ethnic groups that are
resettling in the Kumyk lowlands, and he sympathized with Tenglik,
the Kumyk national movement. The ongoing confrontation between
Dagestans authorities and Kumyk groups demanding autonomy
may have motivated his murder.
In the Western Balkans, Muslims are even more divided than in the
North Caucasus, as there is no overarching collective identity
bridging different ethnicities, languages, and historical origins.193
Muslim leaders in ex-Yugoslavia generally supported the
independence of republics based primarily on ethno-national
principles (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosova), much like the Catholic
(Croatia, Slovenia) and Orthodox (Serbia, Macedonia) religious
hierarchies. In contrast, the officially approved Muslim clergy in the
North Caucasus does not overtly favor republican independence or
the creation of a regionwide Islamic state.
The overwhelming majority of Balkan Muslims adhere to
mainstream Sunni Islam of the Hanafi school of jurisprudence and
view Salafism and other fundamentalist streams as retrograde.194
Nonetheless, in several states, the struggle for religious influence
and control over official Islamic institutions has intensified in recent
years.195 Various actors challenge the monopoly of official Islam,
including neo-Sufi movements, revivalists, modernists and different
strains of Salafism. A radical Salafist minority has attempted to gain
control over the official Islamic communities in BosniaHerzegovina, Sandzak, Macedonia, Albania and Kosova, but with
limited success.196
The Islamic Community (IC) in Bosnia-Herzegovina is the
administrative authority for Bosnian Muslims, but its exclusivity is
challenged by the presence of other Islamic networks, including
Salafis. 197 The control of mosques yields the strongest influence,
especially in rural areas, where the mosque is the key community
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RELIGIOUS DIMENSIONS
institution. Some mosques and other institutions act independently
from the IC, especially where imams have been educated at Islamic
universities in the Muslim world. The IC has welcomed Saudi
funding that contributed to the rebuilding of several hundred
mosques. However, this aid came at a price, with the growth of
Salafist groups heavily influenced by Saudi Arabian networks.198
Religious literature donated by the Saudi government tends to
reflect Salafist views, while mosques and cultural centers usually
employ Salafist-leaning local staff and preachers.
Since the mid-1990s, thousands of young secular Albanians have
travelled to Arab countries on educational scholarships, with many
embracing religious outlooks. Others have come into contact with
radical Islamists while working in Western Europe. They
subsequently assume control of selected mosques, madrasas, and
other Islamic institutions, and aspire to leading positions in the
Albanian Muslim Community (AMC).199 They harbor a stronger
sense of Islamic identity than older Albanian Muslims, who are less
versed in Koranic studies. Salafi missionaries have made inroads
among Albanias Muslims in two main areas: training imams and
distributing religious literature. Traditional organizations do not
possess the financial resources to provide Islamic education or
address the glaring material needs of their constituents. The Muslim
Forum of Albania has been the most visible Islamist challenger to
the mainstream Islamic community.200
A growing concern in Albania and Kosova is the attempt by
Islamists to create divisions on religious grounds in a nation that has
been multi-denominational for centuries. In Macedonia they have
also tried to generate Albanian nationalism and antagonism toward
the government. Islamists seek to convert other Muslims, as well
as non-Muslims, by providing funds, travel, education, and
employment under the sponsorship of foreign Islamic bodies.
However, it is misleading to label every form of foreign assistance to
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CONFLICT ZONES
local Muslim communities as Islamist proselytizing, since charity
work and encouraging a religious revival do not necessarily equate
with intolerant radicalism.
Similarly to the North Caucasus, moderate imams in the Balkans are
viewed by Salafist zealots as corrupt and guilty of espousing an
adulterated version of Islam. As a consequence, tensions have been
visible between radical and moderate imams in Bosnia-Herzegovina,
Serbia and Montenegro. 201 However, not all Salafist imams are
committed to political activism or destabilizing the state. Many are
deeply religious individuals with little or no involvement in politics.
Defining all Salafis as militants and terrorists may create a sense of
paranoia, drive them underground, and ultimately prove counterproductive by weakening the moderate majority and bolstering the
extremists.202
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CONFLICT ZONES
may generate external disputes with neighbors.
Although EU membership is not the panacea for resolving all
remaining disputes in the Western Balkans, the credible and timely
prospect of accession into the Union helps to keep democratic
reforms on track as conditions for entry. Without such reforms
some of the progress achieved since the end of the Yugoslav Wars
(19911999) can unravel. The EU itself is in the grips of prolonged
economic and institutional uncertainty. While the Unions
limitations as a hard power have been evident in its disjointed
foreign policies and restricted military capabilities, its model of
integration may also fade as an instrument of attraction if it closes
its doors to further enlargement. Such a prospect could rekindle
ethnic and national animosities in parts of the Western Balkans.
Spreading Insurrection
The genesis of armed insurrection against contemporary Russian
rule dates back to the closing years of the Soviet Union and the
crushing of Chechen independence. On April 26, 1990, Soviet
President Mikhail Gorbachev signed a law that, in effect, made
Autonomous Republics (AR) equal with Union Republics (UR). The
legislation stated that in the event that URs seceded from the Soviet
Union, the ARs had the right to secede from the URs and remain in
the USSR.204 However, as the Soviet Union collapsed, the only choice
for the ARs was between remaining within the newly formed states
or forming separate entities. By default, Chechnya and all other
North Caucasus republics obtained equal status with Russia and
could opt for independence. Nationalist politician Dzhokhar
Dudaev was elected Chechen President in October 1991, and an
independent Chechen Republic of Ichkeria (ChRI) was proclaimed
on November 2, 1991. Ingushetia split from Chechnya and was
declared a republic in June 1992 but remained part of the Russian
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forces captured Grozny in February 2000 and terminated Chechen
independence, driving the government and parliament into exile.
While many secular Chechen officials were isolated abroad, local
religious radicals increased their influence. In the summer of 2002,
an emergency meeting of the remnants of the ChRI government and
armed forces was convened. A cross-ethnic and religious-based
focus was adopted, with the goal of expanding the insurgency across
the North Caucasus.
On October 5, 2003, Imam Akhmad Kadyrov was installed as
Chechnyas President by the Russian government. When he was
murdered by insurgents in April 2004, his son Ramzan Kadyrov was
appointed by the Kremlin as his successor. 208 Meanwhile,
Chechnyas legitimate President, Aslan Maskhadov (in March 2005),
and his successor, Abdul-Hamil Sadulayev (in June 2006), were
killed by Russian security services, after which Dokka Umarov
assumed the ChRI presidency. In October 2007, Umarov announced
the termination of the Ichkerian Republic and the creation of the
Caucasus Emirate (CE).209 His ambition to spread the insurgency
throughout the region was calculated to overstretch Russias security
forces.
Moscow and Grozny struck an alliance with traditional Sufi clergy
and the tariqas (Sufi brotherhoods) in a common struggle against
Salafism.210 Kadyrov used Sufi Islam to prove his credentials as a
Chechen patriot and to pursue an Islamic conservative revival. He
has presided over a Sufi form of Islam by meshing political, religious
and social life. Although Moscow has tried to pose as the defender of
traditional Sufi Islam against radicals inspired by foreign ideologies,
in effect Chechnya is becoming a distinct territory that no longer
observes the principles of Russias secular system. 211 This may
challenge the unity of the Russian state, especially if Kadyrov seeks
to export the Chechen model to other Muslim regions.
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could be turned into a state-building project based on a synthesis of
Chechen nationalism and traditionalist Sufi Islam.
The North Caucasus is currently the most violent conflict zone in
Europe. At least 700 people were killed and 525 wounded in 2012,
and 242 killed and 253 wounded in the first six months of 2013.216
Conditions throughout the region are deteriorating and it appears
to be on the verge of a broader war. According to Paul Goble, there
are three reasons for these developments: Islam and nationalism are
reinforcing one another; armed militants have changed their
strategy by shifting to smaller groups that are harder to locate; and
conditions in each republic are increasingly diverse and cannot be
resolved through a single policy prescription.217
Moscow confronts a gray zone along its southern borders where
its coercive instruments exacerbate public resentment. The North
Caucasus is witnessing a process of latent separation where the
population is increasingly estranged from the state.218 The social and
political fabric of Russian statehood is rupturing, while parallel
social, political and legal structures, including Islamic jamaats, are
replacing it. Regional power elites are also facing a crisis of
legitimacy, as they are progressively isolated from the population. In
this context, the conflict should be viewed primarily as an
insurrection and not a terrorist offensive. 219 Terrorism is an
operational tactic, while insurgency is a strategic-level campaign.
Terrorism is one among many instruments employed by anti-state
groups in an essentially political struggle for territorial separation
from Russia. The objective of the insurgents is to undermine
government authority, capture public support, and create an
independent political structure and a separate state.
The Yugoslav wars also involved irregular militia forces either
sponsored by republican governments seeking to break away from
the federal structure or by the government in Belgrade intent on
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CONFLICT ZONES
expiration of a moratorium on attacks against Russian civilians that
was declared on February 2, 2012.222 The CE would evidently focus
on disrupting the Sochi Olympics in February 2014. While militants
may find it difficult to carry out terrorist acts at the Olympic
facilities because of tight security, they can attract attention by
staging attacks elsewhere in the region or in major Russian cities
such as Volgograd. 223 Umarov is believed to be based in the
Achkhoi-Martan district of Chechnya and the adjacent Sunzha
district of Ingushetia, and has evaded numerous raids by Russian
special forces. Chechen guerrillas operate in several safe havens in
Ingushetia. However, Dagestan has become the epicenter of the
North Caucasus insurgency. Several hundred local and federal
security force members, public administrators, politicians, ministers
and journalists have been murdered in the republic during the past
decade. Throughout 2012, 405 people were killed and 290 injured in
armed clashes.224 In the first half of 2013, at least 153 people were
killed and 162 injured.
Dagestans anti-Wahhabism law criminalized many moderate
young Muslims and drove them toward the insurgents. Dagestani
leader Magomedsalam Magomedov, appointed in 2010, tried to take
the sting out of the insurgency by asserting his readiness for
dialogue with Salafis and by allowing militants to establish their own
political structure, the Association Ahl al-Sunna, as well as
newspapers, a TV station and mosques. 225 He adopted a more
inclusive model of counter-terrorism than in Chechnya by
permitting greater religious freedom and communication with noncombatant Salafis.226 Dagestan has the largest Salafist community in
the North Caucasus, with numerous mosques, schools, civic and
human rights organizations, and charities. Salafis form a minority of
believers, but have evolved into an active and growing community,
especially among urban youth.
88
CONFLICT ZONES
that Dagestan faced a possible process of fragmentation and the
emergence of several ethnic statelets and Salafist enclaves.230
In the northwest Caucasus, Russian authorities systematically
murdered or expelled the indigenous Circassians during the 1860s.
Since that time Moscow has endeavored to obliterate all traces of
Circassian origins in Krasnodar and Stavropol krais, prevented any
moves toward national self-determination, and disallowed members
of the large Circassian diaspora from visiting their ancestral
homeland.231 Such a policy radicalizes the younger generation of
Circassian activists and even antagonizes local leaders who have
been loyal to the Kremlin.
A new consensus focused on victimhood is reportedly emerging
among Circassians. On March 25, 2013, the Circassian organization
Adyge Khase (Circassian Parliament) stated that any person who
does not recognize the Circassian genocide in the 1860s is precluded
from holding positions in Circassian organizations.232 On March
1213, 2013, officials and activists from the three Circassianinhabited republics (Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia and
Adygea) together with representatives of the Circassian diaspora
agreed on a set of measures to defend their common language and
culture. 233 This represented an important breakthrough for a
community that has been politically divided. The agreements
included the adoption of laws making Circassian the only official
language alongside Balkar in Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay in
Karachay-Cherkessia, and demoting Russian to the status of a
secondary language. Circassian is to become the principal
language in the media and education, while Russified names are to
be dropped and Circassian originals restored.
According to Circassian leaders, support for a separate Circassian
state is growing in the region.234 The idea is to combine Circassianinhabited territories in Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia,
90
Anti-Liberation Strategies
The Kremlin has propagated two simplistic myths about the conflict
in the North Caucasus: that it is a battlefield of global jihad, and that
all guerrillas are members of the global terrorist movement.237 Since
the First Russo-Chechen War (19941996), Moscow has tried to
delegitimize the Chechen national liberation movement by
depicting rebels as bandits, criminals and terrorists. Putin used the
Chechen conflict to revive Russian nationalism, strengthen state
power, eliminate regional autonomy, and recentralize the
federation. The Second Russo-Chechen War (19992000) was
portrayed as a wholly anti-terrorist operation, in which Chechnya
was one battlefield in the global conflict with Islamist extremism.
Moscows objective was to garner international support and silence
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CONFLICT ZONES
Western criticisms of its anti-civilian atrocities.238 This propaganda
initiative was assisted by the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the U.S. and the
September 2004 Beslan school massacre in North OssetiaAlania,
thus linking the entire insurgency movement with Islamist
terrorism. The Beslan atrocity may have been intended by
insurgents to provoke armed conflicts between Christian Ossetians
and Muslim Ingush, and spark a wider regional conflagration.
Putin has asserted that the main danger to Russias territorial
integrity is Islamic fundamentalism. To defeat this threat, Kremlin
strategy has combined force, repression, the installation of loyal
regional leaders, and massive economic assistance to the ruling
elite.239 However, this policy has only provided superficial stability
and increased disaffection throughout the region, as federal funding
has failed to stimulate economic development.240 Salafis and other
devout Muslims have become the perennial scapegoats for the
republics problems and easy targets for local authorities who enrich
themselves on federal funds purportedly earmarked for combating
the guerrillas.
After branding the Chechen war as an anti-terrorist campaign to
discredit the rebel leadership, Moscow turned the conflict into a civil
war among Chechens and declared victory. This policy has failed, as
Chechenization led to an excessive reliance on one local powerbroker, the Kadyrov family.241 Chechenization meant installing a
loyal leadership, who in return for eschewing separatism would be
free to engage in corruption and repression. Such an approach
enables Moscow to present any conflicts as an internal Chechen
affair and deny responsibility for war crimes.242
In attempts to imitate the Chechen model, Moscow has appointed
leaders in other republics. The head of Ingushetia, Yunus-Bek
Yevkurov, and Dagestani leader Ramazan Abdulatipov have
employed Kadyrovs methods in combating the insurgency.
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CONFLICT ZONES
power. It will intensify the intimidation of civilians and accelerate
the spiral of violence.
Terrorism has proved useful for Putins international diplomatic
offensive, as he has tried to transform his image from a KGB agent
into a global champion of anti-terrorism. On January 22, 2001,
Putin signed a decree placing the FSB in charge of anti-terrorist
operations. All power structures operating in the North Caucasus,
including the army, were subordinated to the new HQ. 246 To
coordinate anti-insurgency activity, in February 2006 the National
Anti-Terrorist Committee was created by presidential decree under
the head of the FSB, Nikolai Petrushev. This structure secured for
the FSB more extensive levers of control over other agencies and
substantial state funding.247 Nevertheless, the security services are
not trained or equipped to deal with individual and small-unit
terrorist threats in urban areas.
Both Belgrade and Moscow have participated in anti-separatist wars
and there are similarities in their operations, particularly in the
deployment of irregular militias. The Russian army introduced the
relatively well-paid contract soldiers (kontraktniki) alongside
military conscripts. It uses these private forces to terrorize civilians,
much like the Serbian nationalist militias and special forces
deployed by Milosevic in the wars in Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina
and Kosova. Russias Special Forces (spetsnaz) and kontraktniki have
played a leading role in sweep operations through targeted
territories, called zachistki. 248 They allow officials plausible
deniability in orchestrating operations outside the law involving
gross human rights abuses. Although these missions are allegedly
designed to check identity documents and locate members of
illegally armed formations, in practice, they have degenerated into
summary executions, torture, arson and looting. As in the former
Yugoslavia, some Russian officers became war entrepreneurs for
purposes of personal enrichment.
94
CONFLICT ZONES
sharpen local grievances. A lack of public trust in government
institutions and law enforcement will also embolden demands for
secession and independence.
Emerging Entities
The post-Yugoslav republics can be divided into two distinct
categories. First, are the successful states of Slovenia and Croatia,
which have consolidated their statehood and democratic systems
and entered both NATO and the EU, with Montenegro and most
probably Serbia poised to follow them over the coming decade.
Second, are the contested states of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosova, and
Macedonia, whose democratic reforms have been threatened by
ethnic disputes, while their membership in NATO and the EU
remains blocked by domestic politics and external vetos. In
addition, there are disputed sub-state regions that seek greater
autonomy if not outright independence, including the Serb Republic
in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Vojvodina in Serbia, and the Albanian
majority areas of western Macedonia and southern Serbia.
The aspiring countries that emerge in the North Caucasus from a
fracturing Russian Federation will be categorized as contested states.
They are unlikely to be admitted into international institutions or
gain significant recognition as independent entities. They would
remain as frozen states, acknowledged by a handful of countries
but ignored by the majority. They may also be encumbered with
unresolved internal ethnic and territorial conflicts or persistent
external disputes with neighbors.
The international legality of aspiring new states will also be
questioned, as multi-national bodies have not resolved the
contradictory principles of self-determination and territorial
integrity. The UN General Assembly Resolution 1514 of December
1960 states that all people subject to colonial rule have the right to
96
CONFLICT ZONES
secession from Russia.259 Young people are losing trust in elders and
politicians and calculate that the chances for coexistence within
Russia for North Caucasians are almost zero. Support for separatism
is aggravated by rising Russian ethno-nationalism directed primarily
against people from the Caucasus. Anti-immigrant xenophobia is
spreading among the ethnic Russian population, especially in
Moscow and other major cities. Much of the public is convinced
that Caucasians and Central Asians are flooding into urban areas,
undermining law and order, and depriving ethnic Russians of jobs
and services. This has already led to several pogroms and intensified
ethnic tensions throughout the country.
Growing turmoil in Russia and an uncertain final status for the
North Caucasus will breed strife. As with the former Yugoslavia, two
kinds of conflicts could escalate in various parts of the North
Caucasus during advances toward republican independence. First,
an aspiring state may experience autonomist, secessionist, and even
pro-federalist claims by one or more of its component ethnic groups
asserting their right to self-determination. Second, an emerging
state may confront territorial feuds with neighboring republics,
whether based on historical precedents or assertions for defending
ethnic kindred. In some cases, the region could witness contesting
claims by two or more republics.
The emergence of a sizeable consensus on independent statehood
may be less problematic in the two ethnically homogenous republics
of Chechnya and Ingushetia. However, this could also unleash fresh
conflicts in Chechnya between nationalists and Islamists. Ingushetia
may also face territorial struggles with both North OssetiaAlania
and Chechnya over several disputed districts if the republic slips out
of Moscows political orbit. North Ossetia, with a predominantly
pro-Russian population, would likely decide to remain in the
Russian Federation and seek a merger with Georgias secessionist
region of South Ossetia, thus provoking conflicts with several
98
CONFLICT ZONES
territories, and over political representation in the new
administration. The ethnic patchworks present in some republics
could encourage militants to press for population exchanges or
expulsions in order to create ethnically pure territories.
Alternatively, nationalists may favor mergers with territories
inhabited by co-ethnics in neighboring republics to establish larger
and more homogenous states. This could also involve claims to
nearby districts in Stavropol krai and Krasnodar krai containing
growing Muslim populations. Instability will be compounded by the
weakness of new state institutions, including security and law
enforcement mechanisms.
Even if Moscow cannot control the North Caucasus, many of the
regions ethnic and religious cleavages may be exacerbated and
exploited by Moscow to prevent secession or to weaken any aspiring
states. The authorities can stir inter-ethnic disputes and provoke
inter-religious conflicts, especially between Sufis and Salafis, to shift
attention away from disquiet with Moscow-appointed republican
governments. Similarly, Belgrade countered moves toward
republican independence by promoting the territorial fractures of
Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. It provided direct support to local
militias and separatist governments within these republics who
called for Yugoslav federal military intervention. The Kremlin may
back pro-Russian autonomous units or separatists within the
emerging states, following the model it has applied since the 1990s
in Moldova (Transnistria), Georgia (Abkhazia, South Ossetia) and
Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh) in order to maintain points of
pressure against the new countries.
Efforts to establish territorially stable nation-states in the North
Caucasus could be assisted by international mediation, but Moscow
will remain adamantly opposed. The Kremlin prefers regional
instability to smooth secession in order to disqualify any emerging
countries from gaining international recognition. The process of
100
CONFLICT ZONES
also in other border areas of the Russian Federation that either
Tsarist Russia or the Soviet Union forcibly annexed.
Regional Spillovers
Whereas the Yugoslav fracture during the 1990s had limited
spillover effects among the countrys neighbors, state fracture in the
North Caucasus will have a direct impact on Russias larger federal
structure and on several post-Soviet neighbors. Escalating
ungovernability or sustained attempts at separation from Moscow
could encourage other regions to push for statehood. In particular,
secessionist sentiments would intensify in the Middle Volga
republics of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan and among regions with a
burgeoning identity and resentful of Moscows interference in their
economic and political development, such as Kaliningrad, Siberia
and the Far East.
The South Caucasus will be directly affected by turmoil along its
northern borders. In Georgia and Azerbaijan, officials and analysts
perceive both dangers and opportunities in Russias potential loss of
control over the North Caucasus. In a favorable scenario, this could
dissipate Moscows pressure on Tbilisi and Baku and enable both
countries to pursue an unobstructed Western orientation. In the
worst-case alternative, it could unleash a spiral of instability by
spreading ethnic divisions, Islamist radicalism, and political
chaos.263 Salafist militancy can be transposed to Islamic populations
in Georgia where about 10% of the inhabitants are Muslim,
including the Ajari and Kist groups. 264 This may also provide
inroads for greater Iranian influences in the region, especially
among Shia populations in Azerbaijan experiencing growing
conflict with Salafist movements infiltrating from the North
Caucasus.
102
CONFLICT ZONES
Russian authorities adopted the argument that Georgia had forfeited
the right to govern these areas, much like the West dismissed
continuing Serbian rule in Kosova because of Belgrades war crimes
against Albanian inhabitants. Georgia could again be labeled by
Moscow as a terrorist enclave, accused of supporting international
jihadism and endangering Russian national security, thus giving the
Kremlin the alleged right to stage military operations on Georgian
territory.
The attainment of independence by Georgia, Azerbaijan and
Armenia, exerts an attraction for those in the North Caucasus
seeking greater sovereignty. 268 In preventing growing Georgian
influence in the North Caucasus and assisting Armenia in its
confrontation with Azerbaijan, the Kremlin may decide to further
dismember Georgia and create direct territorial corridors for
Russian forces to traverse to their military base in Gyumri, Armenia.
Alternatively, Moscow could attempt to destabilize Georgia by
staging terrorist incidents or provoking border clashes with
Georgian forces.
The Lezgins, whose homeland is divided between Dagestan and
Azerbaijan, might clamor for unification in a single state. Dagestani
Lezgins reportedly have significant influence on their ethnic kindred
in Azerbaijan and they were instrumental in establishing the
clandestine armed Sunni Islamic jamaat, which conducted
operations in Azerbaijan.269 In the northwest Caucasus, Circassian
moves toward secession from Russia will also impact on Abkhazia
and could intensify the latters resistance to Moscows control.
Georgia may also exploit the opportunity of Russias fracture to try
and recapture Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The Russian government opposes Georgias influence in the North
Caucasus, and one of its objectives during the August 2008 war was
to diminish Tbilisis attraction as a political and economic model
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CONFLICT ZONES
based Circassian Cultural Center, created at the initiative of
President Saakashvili in 2011, continues to operate. Caucasian
House, established in 1999 to conduct educational and cultural
projects, still functions, indicating that Georgias leaders see longterm value in closer relations with its northern neighbors.
In the event that Georgia moves closer to NATO, aspirations for
independence could accelerate in the North Caucasus, while the
Islamist element in the regional insurgency may diminish. 272
Georgia itself will become a more influential factor in the region if it
joins NATO and obtains firm security guarantees from its new
allies, as Moscow would be hesitant in provoking a direct
confrontation with the North Atlantic Alliance. However, Russias
impending territorial fracture will not necessarily be confined to the
Russian Federation. Much like Serbia during the 19911995
Yugoslav wars, Moscow may seek to incorporate the territories of
neighboring states containing sizeable Russian or pro-Moscow
populations in order to compensate for the loss of the North
Caucasus. Attempts to create a Greater Russia could embroil
Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and Kazakhstan in domestic inter-ethnic
struggles, as well as in direct confrontations with Moscow. This
would present serious challenges for both NATO and the EU,
particularly for member states bordering the emerging conflict
zones.
In contrast with the Russian Federation, throughout the Yugoslav
wars in the 1990s none of the emerging states harbored any
territorial aspirations or claims to ethnic kindred outside the
borders of the Yugoslav federation. In addition, the countries
neighboring ex-Yugoslavia successfully avoided becoming
embroiled in the conflict, although several backed the U.S.-led
NATO military interventions and peacemaking missions in BosniaHerzegovina, Croatia and Kosova. Opportunities for regional
spillovers remain restricted, especially as most border questions
106
International Intervention
The early years of the Yugoslav wars during the 1990s were marked
by international indecision regarding intervention. Diplomatic
engagement by the EU and the U.S. proved insufficient to stem the
expanding violence, even after the expiration of the Yugoslav
federation was acknowledged and the independence of several new
states recognized. NATO only became engaged in an effective way
in the war zones when Washington decided to intervene militarily.
The U.S. administration feared that the credibility of the Alliance
was under increasing scrutiny given the mass slaughter of civilians
in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosova. NATO was eventually
successful in terminating the wars and enabling state formation.
Subsequently, the EU decided at its Thessaloniki Summit on June
21, 2003, that all the Western Balkan states would be integrated into
the Union once they met the criteria for accession.273 They were
formally placed on the membership path through Stabilization and
Association Agreements (SAA), thus contributing to democratic
consolidation and regional stability.
During the First and Second Russo-Chechen Wars, Western powers
were largely silent on Moscows mass abuses of human rights.274 In
effect, Washington sacrificed Chechnya because of its support for
the reformist Yeltsin administration. Unlike the Western Balkans
after the demise of Yugoslavia, the North Caucasus has not been a
consistent focus of international attention. Few Western journalists
are present in the zone, Western governments and international
bodies do not have representatives in the region, and the Russian
authorities jealously guard against any Western encroachment.
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CONFLICT ZONES
Moscow occasionally warns against international interference in the
region. Putins diatribe during a Russian Security Council session on
September 9, 2013, demanded a vigorous response against alleged
attempts by some states and international organizations to
undermine stability in the North Caucasus.275
In order to dissuade any involvement by outside powers, the
Kremlin has compared the North Caucasus with Afghanistan. It
asserts that the region remains primitive, insecure, and
unpredictable, and only a Russian presence can provide a measure
of stability. Russias state propaganda proclaims that the withdrawal
of federal security forces will either result in chaos and civil wars
that spill over to other regions, or the seizure of power by an antiWestern Taliban-like regime.276 Moscow equates its anti-civilian and
anti-separatist operations in the North Caucasus with U.S.
campaigns against the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and claims that Russia
and the U.S. share a common enemy of international terrorism.277
Such assertions are designed to achieve several objectives: to define
all insurrections inside Russia as terrorism; to conflate all separatist
movements with Islamist radicals; to conceal the repressive policies
of the federal government and its regional proxies; to dismiss the
significance of local grievances against Moscow; and to disregard
aspirations for independence among the North Caucasus nations.
The likelihood of military intervention by outside powers or multinational alliances in the North Caucasus remains remote. Escalating
conflicts anywhere in the Russian Federation are also unlikely to
embroil the U.S. and European countries in diplomatic mediation or
peacekeeping. Such initiatives would be seen as challenging Russias
territorial integrity and could precipitate a direct confrontation with
Moscow. It would be difficult to repeat the scenario of Western
diplomatic and military intervention in ex-Yugoslavia, particularly
as Russia would vehemently oppose any direct Western engagement.
108
109
6. C ONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
The North Caucasus, Eurasias powder keg, is undergoing
intensified political instability, religious radicalization, ethnic
disputes and insurgent violence that will impact on a much broader
region. Conditions in the North Caucasus increasingly resemble exYugoslavia on the eve of its disintegration in the 1990s, and some
elements are even more flammable. The federal structure is
undergoing escalating challenges to its stability and legitimacy, and
the central government is imposing its authority primarily through
coercion, subsidization and the imposition of republican leaders.
The prospect for more extensive violence, territorial fracture, and
the emergence of aspiring states is growing.
The two conflict zones also have some notable contrasts. Islamist
religious radicalism plays a more prominent role in the North
Caucasus than it has in the Western Balkans and it infuses the
spreading insurgency. Meanwhile, centrally appointed republican
leaders uphold their loyalty to Moscow, principally because they
depend on the Kremlin for economic resources and political office.
If the survival of these governments is seriously imperiled and
federal subsidies significantly decline, republican leaders may turn
to ethno-nationalism and territorial separatism to gain local
legitimacy, as was the case in ex-Yugoslavia.
This concluding chapter specifies the core similarities and contrasts
between the North Caucasus and the Western Balkan conflict zones.
111
CONFLICT ZONES
It also offers policy recommendations for Washington in
confronting North Caucasus spillovers and an increasingly unstable
Russia. The potential partition of the Russian Federation would
reverberate throughout wider Europe by challenging the security of
several neighboring states and threatening a range of Western
political, economic and energy interests.
112
Federal Contrasts
CONFLICT ZONES
Ethno-National Similarities
114
Ethno-National Contrasts
CONFLICT ZONES
Religious Similarities
116
Religious Contrasts
CONFLICT ZONES
ethno-national autonomy.
118
CONFLICT ZONES
anti-Russian agenda.279
120
CONFLICT ZONES
U.S. strategy toward the broader Caucasus region.
1. Determine a range of conflict scenarios and establish
contingency plans for the likely expansion of instability in the
North Caucasus, Russias potential implosion, and any
spillovers into the South Caucasus and other nearby regions.
Such planning and preparation should be conducted with
significant inputs from the governments of Georgia and
Azerbaijan, which would be directly affected by spreading
unrest.
2. Obtain a comprehensive and detailed assessment of the policies
of Russias federal authorities, the security forces, republican
governments, nationalist activists, and insurgent leaders in the
North Caucasus, including their ambitions, strategies, tactics,
capabilities, successes and shortcomings.
3. Investigate the sources of terrorism inside Russia when
considering intensifying bilateral cooperation in combating
terrorism. Washington and Moscow follow two contrasting
counter-terrorism strategies. Moscow engages in counterproductive anti-civilian operations, which exacerbate social
alienation, accelerate religious radicalism, and aggravate armed
insurgency. In addition, Russias federal and local security
services are widely believed to be complicit in some terrorist
activities, either because of incompetence, bribery or deliberate
provocation.
4. Campaign internationally to open up the North Caucasus to
Western journalists, political analysts, human rights activists,
special rapporteurs from international organizations, UN
goodwill ambassadors, humanitarian groups and government
officials from various states. Since the Yeltsin years, the Russian
government has squeezed out any international presence,
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CONFLICT ZONES
an international humanitarian or peacekeeping mission.
9. Compile a range of contingency options to help protect the
South Caucasus countries from further instability. This can
include emplacing an international border monitoring force
along the most sensitive areas of the North Caucasus frontier.280
Contingencies should also entail securing the oil and gas
pipeline routes traversing the Caucasus from Azerbaijan to
Turkey.
10. Provide a clear Western perspective for Georgia and Azerbaijan
that will help stabilize their regional positions and encourage
trade, investment, transportation, and energy linkages with
Europe. A more visible U.S. footprint would also enhance the
security of both countries by making them less vulnerable to
Russias pressures or to North Caucasus instabilities. Such an
approach can include roadmaps toward EU and NATO
membership. With the potential disintegration of Russia,
Washington and Brussels need reliable and stable partners
between the Black and Caspian Seas. Moreover, the
strengthening of Georgia and Azerbaijan as Western-oriented
and economically vibrant countries can serve as a model for
future state construction and institution building in a postRussian North Caucasus. Thought should also be given to a
collective designation for the new countries that emerge from a
fracturing Russian Federation.
124
E N DNOT E S
1
CONFLICT ZONES
Russian Advance Towards the Muslim World, London: Hurst, 1992;
William E. Odom and Robert Dujarric, Commonwealth or Empire? Russia,
Central Asia and the Transcaucasus, Indianapolis, IN: Hudson Institute,
1997; and John B. Dunlop, Russia Confronts Chechnya: Roots of a Separatist
Conflict, Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1998.
6
10
11
12
ENDNOTES
replaced by a Peoples Assembly elected every four years on principles of
proportional representation of the fourteen ethnic groups.
13
Ibid.
14
15
16
17
19
CONFLICT ZONES
Europe Report No. 226, September 6, 2013, p. 5,
<http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/europe/caucasus/226-thenorth-caucasus-the-challenges-of-integration-iii-governance-electionsrule-of-law.pdf?utm_source=north-caucasusreport&utm_medium=3&utm_campaign=mremail>.
20
21
22
23
25
128
ENDNOTES
predecessor, Valery Kokov. Just weeks after his appointment, Kanokov had
to deal with an uprising of Muslim youth in October 2005 and a spreading
Islamic insurgency. Fifty-seven people are still on trial for their alleged
involvement in the October 2005 uprising. See Mairbek Vatchagaev, Surge
in Militant Activity in Kabardino-Balkaria May Force Ouster of Kanokov,
Eurasia Daily Monitor, Washington, DC: The Jamestown Foundation, Vol.
10, Issue 112, June 13, 2013.
27
The Kremlin decision may have been provoked by the KabardinoBalkarian parliaments appeal to the Russian Duma in November 2013 to
adopt legislative amendments allowing for the mass repatriation of Syrian
Circassians to the North Caucasus. See Valery Dzutsev, KabardinoBalkarian Governors Resignation Likely Tied to Sochi Olympics, Eurasia
Daily Monitor, Washington, DC: The Jamestown Foundation, Vol. 10,
Issue 220, December 9, 2013.
28
30
31
32
129
CONFLICT ZONES
33
35
36
John Dunlop, Putin, Kozak and Russian Policy Toward the North
Caucasus, in Glen E. Howard (Ed.), Volatile Borderland: Russia and the
North Caucasus, Washington, DC: The Jamestown Foundation, 2012, p. 61.
Moscow has also considered plans to create a broader Prichernomorsk
province by incorporating Adygea and Karachay-Cherkessia into
Krasnodar krai.
37
39
40
130
ENDNOTES
report&utm_medium=3&utm_campaign=mremail>; and Andrew Foxall,
Russias Canary in the North Caucasus Mine: Stavropolskii krai, in
Robert Bruce Ware (Ed.), The Fire Below: How the Caucasus Shaped Russia,
New York, NY: Bloomsbury, 2013, pp. 163165.
41
42
43
44
45
CONFLICT ZONES
47
48
49
50
132
ENDNOTES
53
54
55
57
58
59
61
CONFLICT ZONES
Integration (I) Ethnicity and Conflict, Moscow, Russia, Europe Report No.
220, October 19, 2012, p. 30,
<http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/europe/caucasus/220-thenorth-caucasus-the-challenges-of-integration-i-ethnicity-andconflict.pdf>.
62
63
64
Gordon M. Hahn, The Rise of Islamist Extremism in KabardinoBalkaria, Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization,
Vol. 13, No. 4, 2005, pp. 543594. After the dissolution of the USSR, the
Congress of the Balkar People proclaimed an independent Republic of
Balkaria as a subject of the Russian Federation.
65
66
134
ENDNOTES
68
69
Paul Goble, South Ossetia Wants to Join Russia but Moscow Unlikely
to Agree, Window on Eurasia: New Series, July 25, 2013.
71
72
73
74
75
CONFLICT ZONES
Ethnic Confrontation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, Washington, DC: The
Jamestown Foundation, Vol. 10, Issue 39, March 1, 2013.
77
78
Ibid, p. 21.
79
80
83
84
136
ENDNOTES
Economic Crisis and the European Perspective, Institute for Regional and
International Studies, Sofia, Bulgaria, September 2010,
<http://www.irisbg.org/files/The%20Western%20Balkans.pdf>.
85
86
87
88
89
91
CONFLICT ZONES
92
93
94
95
96
98
99
138
ENDNOTES
100
101
102
103
Islamic radicals in the North Caucasus and the Western Balkans refute
the Wahhabi label. They are more accurately defined as Salafists,
Qutbists, or Azzamists. Wahhabism does not promulgate the overthrow of
non-Islamic governments, while Salafism is not uniform but contains
different schools. All these creeds appeal through their simplicity and
universality in calling for a return to a pristine Islam, which entails
opposition to injustice and oppression. For a discussion, see Robert W.
Schaefer, The Insurgency in Chechnya and the North Caucasus: From
Gazavat to Jihad, Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger, 2011, pp. 150152.
104
CONFLICT ZONES
The North Caucasus and the Global Counterinsurgency Paradigm, Studies
in Conflict and Terrorism, 32, 2009, pp. 831851.
106
107
108
For an account of jihadist statements, see Gordon Hahn, AntiAmericanism, Anti-Westernism, and Anti-Semitism among Russias
Muslims, Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization,
Vol. 16, No. 1, Winter 2008, pp. 4960,
<https://proxybc.researchport.umd.edu/login?url=https://search.ebscohost
.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=31161351&site=ehost-live>.
Hahn views the North Caucasus insurgency as a sub-division of global
jihad rather than a struggle for decolonization and independence, whether
this is based on ethnic or religious principles, or both.
109
For an analysis of the regional insurgency and the use of terrorism, see
Cerwyn Moore, Suicide Bombing: Chechnya, the North Caucasus and
Martyrdom, Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 64, No. 9, November 2012, pp.
17801807, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2012.718421
111
ENDNOTES
for the EU, Washington & Uppsala: Silk Road Paper, Central Asia
Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, July 2006.
113
114
Galina M. Yemelianova, Kinship, Ethnicity and Religion in PostCommunist Societies: Russias Autonomous Republic of KabardinoBalkariya, Ethnicities, Vol. 5, No. 1, 2005, p. 68, <http://nbnresolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-230106>.
115
116
118
120
CONFLICT ZONES
121
122
123
124
126
127
128
ENDNOTES
129
131
An appraisal of foreign insurgents can be found in Murad Batal AlShishani, The Rise and Fall of Arab Fighters in Chechnya, in Glen E.
Howard (Ed.), Volatile Borderland: Russia and the North Caucasus,
Washington, DC: The Jamestown Foundation, 2012, pp. 265293.
132
133
Some analysts believe that the turn from Chechen nationalism toward
jihadist internationalism was visible earlier, following a meeting of the
ousted Chechen government in JulyAugust 2002, at which Maskhadov
and Basaev were present. See Gordon M. Hahn, Russias Islamic Threat,
New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2007, p. 40.
143
CONFLICT ZONES
135
138
140
ENDNOTES
143
John B. Dunlop and Rajan Menon, Chaos in the North Caucasus and
Russias Future, Survival, Vol. 4, No. 2, Summer 2006, p. 109.
144
145
146
Gordon M. Hahn, The Rise of Islamist Extremism in KabardinoBalkariya, Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization,
Vol. 13, No. 4, 2005, p. 570, <http://dx.doi.org/10.3200/DEMO.13.4>. The
Islamic revival includes the building of mosques, madrasas, and Muslim
institutions in Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia, but with little
evidence of Islamic radicalism. Initial Chechen attempts to mobilize the
Muslims in the northwest Caucasus failed, as Islam remained a secondary
factor to ethno-nationalism.
148
<http://kavkasia.net/Russia/article/1357869979.php>.
149
150
CONFLICT ZONES
151
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
146
ENDNOTES
Research and Assessment Group, Defence Academy of the United
Kingdom, February 2008, p. 11,
<http://www.da.mod.uk/colleges/arag/documentlistings/balkan/08%2806%29KM.pdf>.
160
161
162
163
164
165
CONFLICT ZONES
Homegrown terrorists operate in several West European states where they
have perpetrated more destructive attacks than any terrorists in the
Balkans.
166
Gyorgy Lederer, Islam in East Europe, Central Asian Survey, Vol. 20,
No. 1, 2001, pp. 1314. Lederer provides a dispassionate analysis of Islam
in the Western Balkans and its minimal impact on national politics. The
OAYI and other Salifist groups came under intense scrutiny after the 9/11
attacks on the U.S., and most were disbanded or moderated their approach.
167
169
170
172
148
ENDNOTES
pp. 159172. Balkan leaders avoid creating the impression that they are
moving closer to Turkey and discarding their EU aspirations. See Turkey
in the Balkans: The Good Old Days? Talk of an Ottoman Revival in the
Region Seems Exaggerated, The Economist, November 5, 2011.
173
174
176
177
178
179
CONFLICT ZONES
180
181
184
Galina M. Yemelianova, Kinship, Ethnicity and Religion in PostCommunist Societies: Russias Autonomous Republic of KabardinoBalkariya, Ethnicities, Vol. 5, No. 1, 2005, p. 67, <http://nbnresolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-230106>.
185
186
ENDNOTES
188
189
190
Gordon M. Hahn, The Rise of Islamist Extremism in KabardinoBalkariya, Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization,
Vol. 13, No. 4, 2005, p. 565, <http://dx.doi.org/10.3200/DEMO.13.4>.
191
192
193
Kerem Oktem, Between Emigration, De-Islamization and the NationState: Muslim Communities in the Balkans Today, Southeast European
and Black Sea Studies, Vol. 11, No. 2, June 2011, p. 165. Also check the
fuller report by Kerem Oktem, New Islamic Actors After the Wahhabi
Intermezzo: Turkeys Return to the Muslim Balkans, European Studies
Centre, University of Oxford, December 2010.
194
195
CONFLICT ZONES
Aziz Al-Azmeh and Effie Fokas (Eds.), Islam in Europe: Diversity, Identity
and Influence, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007, pp. 96124.
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
152
ENDNOTES
countries in case it promotes religious involvement in secular political
systems. In Albania, the Gulen movement runs educational institutions
from kindergartens to universities, and promotes Turkish language and
culture. Some observers view it with suspicion as an organization that is
political in its ambitions and intent on creating an elite that will pursue the
Islamization of state and society. This information is from an unpublished
paper by Piro Misha, The Neo-Ottomanist Project and Albania, Tirana,
Albania, provided to the author in June 2013. Religious education in the
Western Balkans is also supported by Turkish state agencies.
203
204
CONFLICT ZONES
Nationalism to Jihad, Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press,
2007, p. 63.
207
Tony Wood, Chechnya: The Case for Independence, London, New York:
Verso, 2007, p. 120.
208
209
210
211
212
154
ENDNOTES
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
CONFLICT ZONES
220
222
223
224
225
226
156
ENDNOTES
227
228
229
230
For information on the report, see Robert Bruce Ware and Enver
Kisriev, Dagestan: Russian Hegemony and Islamic Resistance in the North
Caucasus, Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 2010, pp. 191195.
231
232
233
234
235
CONFLICT ZONES
Foundation, Vol. 10, Issue 84, May 3, 2013.
236
237
238
239
240
241
158
ENDNOTES
129148. The analysis is unnecessarily jargonized and misses the obvious
point that elites in most societies can be divided in their responses to the
ambitions of intrusive imperial powers.
243
244
245
John Dunlop, Putin, Kozak and Russian Policy Toward the North
Caucasus, in Glen E. Howard (Ed.), Volatile Borderland: Russia and the
North Caucasus, Washington, DC: The Jamestown Foundation, 2012, p. 49.
The total number of residents of Chechnya killed in the two wars with
Moscow is estimated at 150,000, or 15% of the populationthe vast
majority non-combatant civilians. This surpasses the massacre of Bosnian
Muslim civilians, with an estimated 100,000 killed during the 19921995
war, or under 6% of the population.
246
247
248
159
CONFLICT ZONES
249
250
254
The UN has a hypocritical record on decolonization and national selfdetermination, having adopted contradictory positions on Europes
overseas empires and the contiguous Russo-Soviet empire. It accepted the
legitimacy of the Soviet Union and failed to protest against Moscows
curtailment of Central-Eastern European independence between 1945 and
1989.
255
256
257
258
160
ENDNOTES
independent statehood as there is no reliable public opinion polling, but
believes it is higher than Moscow admits.
259
260
261
For details on the Mountain Republic, see Moshe Gammer, The Lone
Wolf and the Bear: Three Centuries of Chechen Defiance of Russian Rule,
London: Hurst and Company, 2006, pp. 120128. It was established after
the Bolshevik putsch in October 1917 and declared independence in April
1918. The Red Army retook the territory during 1919, incorporated it as an
Autonomous Republic in the Russian Soviet Republic in January 1921, and
dissolved it in July 1924.
262
264
265
266
John B. Dunlop and Rajan Menon, Chaos in the North Caucasus and
Russias Future, Survival, Vol. 4, No. 2, Summer 2006, pp. 111. If Islamist
extremists establish secure footholds across the North Caucasus, they
161
CONFLICT ZONES
would be better positioned to assist Muslim militants in Central Asia.
Salafists in western Kazakhstan reportedly maintain connections with the
North Caucasus.
267
268
270
272
273
For details, see the Declaration from the EUWestern Balkans Summit,
Thessaloniki, June 21, 2003, Europa EU, Press Release Database,
<http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_PRES-03-163_en.htm>.
274
275
162
ENDNOTES
causing us economic harm, for denigrating Russias influence and for
limiting our presence in the global arena. See Putin: Some Countries see
N.Caucasus As Springboard for Destabilization in Russia, Interfax-AVN
Online, September 9, 2013, <http://www.militarynews.ru/EMAIN.ASP>,
NewsEdge Document Number: 201309091477.1_930d00143f1aeba4. See
also Putin Opens Russian Security Council Meeting on North Caucasus,
Moscow President of Russia in English, Official website of the Russian
Federation President, September 9, 2013, <http://eng.kremlin.ru/>,
NewsEdge Document Number: 201309091477.1_7ee700f50f87fb55.
276
277
279
163
A P P E N DI X I : C ON F L IC T Z ON E M A P S
165
Western
Balkans
166
CHECHNYA
Total population
Persons who declared nationality
Chechen
Russian
Kumyk
Avar
Nogay
Tabasaran
Turk
Tatar
Number
% of Population
439,996
425,386
270,714
107,048
15,561
5,856
4,528
2,651
2,571
2,364
100.0
63.6
25.2
3.7
1.4
1.1
0.6
0.6
0.5
14,093
3.3
14,610
1,268,989
1,266,474
1,206,551
24,382
12,221
4,864
3,444
1,656
1,484
1,466
100.0
95.3
1.9
1.0
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
167
CONFLICT ZONES
Ethnic Group
CHECHNYA cont.
Ingush
Other nationalities
(not listed above)
Persons who refused to declare
national identity
DAGESTAN
Total Population
Persons who declared nationality
Avar
Andy
Archintsy
Ahvahtsy
Bezhtintsy
Botlikhs
Ginuhtsy
Godoberintsy
Gunzibtsy
Didoi
Karatintsy
Tyndall
Hvarshiny
Chamalaly
Dargin
Kumyk
Lezgin
Lak
Russian
Azeri
Tabasaran
Chechen
Nogay
Rutul
168
Number
% of Population
1,296
0.1
9,110
0.7
2,515
2,910,249
2,891,819
850,011
11,448
6
7,923
5,956
3,508
439
426
918
11,623
4,761
634
526
16
490,384
431,736
385,240
161,276
104,020
130,919
118,848
93,658
40,407
27,849
100.0
29.4
0.4
0.0002
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.4
0.2
0.02
0.02
0.001
17.0
14.9
13.3
5.6
3.6
4.5
4.1
3.2
1.4
1.0
INGUSHETIA
Total Population
Persons who declared nationality
Ingush
Chechen
Russian
Other nationalities
(not listed above)
Persons who refused to declare
national identity
Number
% of Population
28,054
9,771
4,997
456
1.0
0.3
0.2
0.02
14,193
0.5
18,430
412,529
409,632
385,537
18,765
3,215
100.0
94.1
4.6
0.8
2,115
0.5
2,897
KABARDINO-BALKARIA
Total Population
859,939
Persons who declared nationality 857,670
Kabardin
490,453
Russian
193,155
Balkar
108,577
Turk
13,965
Ossetian
9,129
Armenian
5,002
Ukrainian
4,800
Korean
4,034
Romani
2,874
100.0
57.2
22.5
12.7
1.6
1.1
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.3
169
CONFLICT ZONES
Ethnic Group
KABARDINO-BALKARIA cont.
Circassian
Tatar
Azeri
Chechen
Other nationalities
(not listed above)
Persons who refused to declare
national identity
Number
% of Population
2,475
2,375
2,063
1,965
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
16,803
1.9
2,269
KARACHAY-CHERKESSIA
Total Population
477,859
Persons who declared nationality 474,360
Karachay
194,324
Russian
150,025
Kazakh
465
Circassian
56,466
Abaza
36,919
Nogay
15,654
Ossetian
3,142
Armenian
2,737
Ukrainian
1,990
Other nationalities
(not listed above)
13,103
Persons who refused to declare
national identity
3,499
KRASNODAR KRAI
Total Population
Persons who declared nationality
Russian
Kazakh
Armenian
170
5,226,647
5,124,990
4,522,962
5,261
281,680
100.0
41.0
31.6
0.1
11.9
7.8
3.3
0.7
0.6
0.4
2.7
100.0
88.3
0.1
5.5
Number
% of Population
83,746
22,595
16,890
24,840
17,826
12,171
13,834
10,165
12,920
8,527
5,899
5,170
3,839
158
1.6
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
81,768
1.6
101,657
NORTH OSSETIAALANIA
Total Population
712,980
Persons who declared nationality 706,423
Ossetian
459,688
Russian
147,090
Kazakh
297
Ingush
28,336
Armenian
16,235
Kumyk
16,092
Georgian
9,095
Turk
3,383
Ukrainian
3,251
Chechen
2,264
100.0
65.1
20.8
0.04
4.0
2.3
2.3
1.3
0.5
0.4
0.3
171
CONFLICT ZONES
Ethnic Group
Number
% of Population
3.0
STAVROPOL KRAI
Total Population
Persons who declared nationality
Russian
Kazakh
Armenian
Dargin
Greek
Romani
Ukrainian
Nogay
Azeri
Karachay
Turkmen
Chechen
Tatar
Turk
Avar
Kabardin
Ossetian
Lezgin
Georgian
Belorussian
Tabasaran
Korean
Other nationalities
(not listed above)
2,786,281
2,759,426
2,232,153
3,006
161,324
49,302
33,573
30,879
30,373
22,006
17,800
15,598
15,048
11,980
11,795
10,419
9,009
7,993
7,988
7,900
7,526
7,104
6,951
6,759
100.0
80.9
0.1
5.9
1.8
1.2
1.1
1.1
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
55,946
2.0
172
Number
26,855
% of Population
),
<http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/perepis2010/perepis_itogi
1612.htm>.
173
176
ACKNOWLED GEMENTS
I would like to thank the Smith Richardson Foundation for its
generous support for this project. In addition to all the people I
consulted on the two conflict zones, my special gratitude for
research and fact checking is extended to my unassailable assistant
and editor Simona Assenova. This monograph is dedicated to all the
people in the North Caucasus and the Western Balkans who long for
freedom and independence.
177