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R
EE E K L Y
P
O
Blow by Blow
On
R
Bullions,
T
Base metals,

18 APRIL 22 APRIL 2016

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
Gold rose on Friday after three days of declines as the U.S. dollar and major stock
markets weakened, but bullion was headed for its first weekly drop in three. Bullion
had climbed to a three-week high on Tuesday, only to give up gains as world stocks
rose on Thursday to their highest levels since late December, boosted by robust
Chinese economic data and a surge in oil prices earlier this week.
"Gold was off this morning on a stronger European stock market but it didn't last as
the this morning's capacity utilization and industrial production numbers were
weaker than expected, indicating continued U.S. economic weakness. Gold prices
have steadied after posting their biggest quarterly rise in nearly 30 years in the first
quarter, driven by a reining in of expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will push
ahead with several interest rate increases this year. "We are seeing central banks
having separation anxiety with their stimulus policies and so many stimuli tend to
devalue currencies and that's the follow through from negative real rates." Higher
interest rates would lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets while
boosting the dollar.
Oil futures settled lower on Friday, but still finished the week with a gain, as traders
braced for a meeting between major producers, who are scheduled to discuss a
potential production freeze this weekend to help boost prices and alleviate a glut of
global crude supplies. Oil prices have jumped by more than a third since the idea of
limiting production at current levels was first floated in mid-February but the rally has
stalled in recent weeks amid uncertainty about the outcome of the talks.
U.S. crude prices have rallied 54% since February, driven largely by reports that the
big producers were agreeing to meet to discuss an output freeze after months of
discord. Yet plenty of skepticism persists on their ability to agree and stick to a
production freeze. U.S. oil prices fell 2.7%, to $40.36 a barrel, on Friday, their largest
slide in nearly two weeks, on doubts that the major crude-exporting nations can
compromise. Key participants, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, the worlds two
biggest producers, have said little about what they are going to discuss, how they will
define and enforce a freeze and who would be bound by any deal. U.S. oil producers
also seem skeptical that the meeting will produce results with a meaningful impact.
A couple of very important notes for the copper market the last few days. Which have
the price for the red metal once again showing unexpected strength. The first was a
major headline across mining news outlets on Wednesday: the sudden resurgence of
copper imports into the key market of China. Chinas March copper imports actually
hit an all-time high at 570,000 tons for the month. Representing a notable 39
percent increase from the same month in 2015.
That was enough to lift Chinas total Q1 copper imports to 1.43 million tons an
increase of over 30 percent as compared to the year-ago period. That news got the
market excited, lifting the copper price off the $2.10 per pound mark where it had
been languishing and back toward $2.20. Stemming a decline in the price that had
been in motion since late March. And even as all eyes were on the copper price,
another less-reported news item emerged in Australia. Showing that some buying
action may also be ahead when it comes to copper stocks. All of which suggests that
interest in copper is stronger than many investors believe right now. And we could
see some big purchases coming both in physical metal and in mines and
development projects.

Gold price set for


first weekly drop
in three.

Oil ends lower, but


gains for the week
on Doha freeze
uncertainty.

Copper Prices
Ignited By Chinese
Demand Growth.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME

DESCRIPTION

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

Apr 17 All Day ALL

Doha Oil Summit

Day 3 ALL

IMF Meetings

Apr 18 6:00pm

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

7:30pm

NAHB Housing Market Index

59

58

Apr 19 6:00pm

Building Permits

1.20M

1.18M

6:00pm

Housing Starts

1.17M

1.18M

Apr 20 7:30pm

Existing Home Sales

5.29M

5.08M

8:00pm

Crude Oil Inventories

Apr 21 6:00pm

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

8.1

12.4

6:00pm

Unemployment Claims

265K

253K

6:30pm

HPI m/m

0.4%

0.5%

7:30pm

CB Leading Index m/m

0.4%

0.1%

8:00pm

Natural Gas Storage

Apr 22 7:15pm

Flash Manufacturing PMI

6.6M

-3B
51.9

51.5

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD showed sideways to
bearish movement, it found support of
38.2% retracement on daily chart and
closed around it. Now, if it continues
bearish movement on lower side then
it may find strong support of 28270
and on higher side 29500 will act as
major resistance level above which
next resistance will seen around
30000.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 28650 the targets of 2825028000, with stop loss of 29500.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

28575

28025

27420

29290

29810

30165

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER last week showed strong
bullish movement and closed around
its important resistance level of 38800
and also closed above weekly
trendline. Now, for upcoming sessions
38800 will act as strong resistance level
for it, if it maintains above 39000 then
may find next resistance around
40000. On the other hand 37500 will
act as vital support level.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to buy above 39000 for
the target of 40000, with stop loss of
37700.

PIVOT TABLE
S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

37840

36940

35980

38800

39750

40575

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Crude oil showed strong bullish
movement last week and found
resistance of 2885 on daily chart and
drag down as making double top
pattern on daily chart. Now, 2925 is act
as vital resistance for it above which it
may find next resistance around 3100.
On lower side, some correction will
drag it towards the support level of
2500.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell below 2700 for the target of 2460,
with stop loss of 3000.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

2680

2460

2255

2925

3135

3310

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed bullish
movement and correction on higher
side, found resistance of 23.6%
retracement level. Now, 313 will act as
immediate support level for it,
sustaining below this 305 will be next
support level. On the other hand some
correction on higher side pull it
towards the major resistance level of
330.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 313, with stop loss of 325 for the
target of 305-300.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

313.60

309

303.35

322.20

328.60

334

DISCLAIMER

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