BUSINESS INNOVATION

SCORING CALCULATIONS
ISACA uses a proprietary approach to assess the level of business innovation (BI)
that can be expected from a trend. The rating scales and scoring calculations
used are described below.

OVERALL BUSINESS INNOVATION SCORE

For each trend, an overall BI index rating is calculated, which represents its expected net value creation.

BI INDEX RATING

DESCRIPTION

BI INDEX %
(Expected Net
Value Creation)

1. Very Low

Is of interest and merits monitoring by management, but not necessarily immediate

action by senior management or the board

2. Low

Is likely to represent significant value to the business, meriting more detailed analysis by
management and discussion by the board (where the level of investment or adverse risk
require board approval)

7-19%
(2.1 to 6)

3. Medium

Is highly likely to represent significant and sustained value and may require adjustment
to existing strategies and plans. How the trend should be addressed by the organization
merits the attention of the board, following detailed analysis by management and
consideration of the risk of competitors adopting the trend. The organization may have
time to consider its response, perhaps because the trend is still emerging.

20-38%
(6.1 to 12)

4. High

The same as level 3, plus prompt action is required if the organization is not to suffer as
competitors take advantage of the trend

39-56%
(12.1 to 18)

5. Very High

Is likely to create significant disruption within the industry, affecting the organization and
its competitors. Adoption of the trend by competitors is highly likely as is the potential
for disruption of the current business model.

57-100%
(18.1-32)

0-6%
(0 to 2)

2015 ISACA. All rights reserved.

Business Innovation Scoring Calculations

Business innovation is a function of benefit realization, risk

optimization and resource optimization. The BI index is derived
using the formula:
Expected Net Value Created = Expected (Benefit Realization +
Risk Optimization + Resource Optimization)

Where:

BENEFIT REALIZATION
Benefits realization is derived using assessments of Benefit
Impact and Likelihood of that impact.
Impact
4. Very
High

M
(4)

H
(8)

VH
(12)

VH
(16)

3. High

L
(3)

M
(6)

H
(9)

VH
(12)

2.
Medium

L
(2)

M
(4)

M
(6)

H
(8)

1. Low

VL
(1)

L
(2)

L
(3)

M
(4)

Benefit Realization = Benefit (Impact x Likelihood)

Risk Optimization = Risk Reduced New Risk = Existing
Reducible Risk (Impact x Likelihood) Residual Risk (Impact
x Likelihood) New Risk (Impact x Likelihood)
Resource Optimization = -Resource Cost = -(Investment
Cost + Business Operations Disruption [Impact x Likelihood])
For each trend, BI Impact and Likelihood scores are calculated
by netting the vector components of Impact and Likelihood
from their related Benefit and Risk scores. These BI Impact
and Likelihood scores are used to place trends on the overall
BI chart. For more information on netting vector components,
refer to the theory of vector mechanics as explained in Vector
Mechanics for Engineers: Statics and Dynamics, Eighth
Edition, by Ferdinand P. Beer and E. Russell Johnston, The
McGraw-Hill Companies, USA, 2006.

1. Unlikely 2. Possible 3. Likely

4. Very
Likely

Likelihood

The components are scored as follows.

OVERALL SCORE

BENEFIT REALIZATION LEVEL

11 to 16

Very High

8 to 10

High

4 to 7

Medium

2 to 3

Low

Very Low

None

2015 ISACA. All rights reserved.

Business Innovation Scoring Calculations

Benefit Impact: An estimate of the most likely positive impact on businesses of the end state of deploying the trend
successfully (at least 80% of the expected benefit realized and risk optimized)

SCALE

4. Very
High

REVENUE
(Or $ Equivalent)
More than 5% gain
in revenue
Or temporary gain
of more than 10%

3. High

2-5% gain in
revenue
Or temporary gain
of 4-10%

2.
Medium

1-2% gain in
revenue
Or temporary gain
of 2-4%

1. Low

Less than 1% gain

in revenue
Or temporary gain
of up to 2%

0. None

No gain in revenue

REPUTATION

Significant gain in
reputation in more
than one key group
with a stake

COMPETITIVE
ADVANTAGE
Significant gain in ability to
deliver on more than one
key business plan/objective

MARKET
VALUE

PRODUCTIVITY

Significant gain in
efficiency in more
than one key business
unit

More than 10%

gain in market
value

Or moderate gain in
most groups

Or moderate gain across

most business plans/
objectives

Significant gain in
reputation in one key
group with a stake

Significant gain in ability to

deliver on one key business
plan/objective

Significant gain in
efficiency in one key
business unit

Or moderate gain in
more than one group

Or moderate gain across

more than one business
plan/objective

Or moderate gain
in more than one
business unit

Moderate gain in
reputation in one key
group with a stake

Moderate gain in ability to

deliver on one key business
plan/objective

Moderate gain in
efficiency in one key
business unit

2-5% gain in
market value

Small/temporary
gain in reputation in
one or more group
with a stake

Small/temporary gain in
ability to deliver on one
or more business plan/
objective

Small/temporary gain
in efficiency in one or
more business units

Less than 2% gain

in market value

No gain in reputation
in any group with a
stake

No gain in ability to deliver

on any business plan/
objective

No gain in efficiency
in any business unit

No gain in market
value

Or moderate gain in
most business units

5-10% gain in
market value

NOTE: Temporary is less than 2 years.

2015 ISACA. All rights reserved.

Business Innovation Scoring Calculations

Benefit Likelihood: An estimate of the proportion of businesses that will receive the expected Benefit Impact

SCALE

LIKELIHOOD OF GAIN

DESCRIPTION

4. Very Likely

More than 80% of businesses

Most (possibly all) businesses in most (possibly all)

industries/sectors would gain.

3. Likely

50-80% of business

Most (possibly all) businesses in some industries/sectors would gain,

although some industries/sectors may not be relevant.
Or some businesses in most (possibly all) industries/
sectors would gain.

2. Possible

10-50% of businesses

Most (possibly all) businesses in a few industries/

sectors would gain.
Or some businesses in some industries/sectors would gain.
Or a few businesses in most (possibly all)
industries/sectors would gain.

1. Unlikely

Less than 10% of businesses

Some businesses in a few industries/sectors would gain.

Or a few businesses in some industries/sectors would gain.
Or a few businesses in a few industries/sectors would gain.
Or it is not yet known if any businesses would gain, but there is
plenty of speculation.

2015 ISACA. All rights reserved.

Business Innovation Scoring Calculations

RISK OPTIMIZATION
Risk Optimization is derived using assessments of Existing Reducible Risk (Impact x Likelihhod), Residual Risk (Impact x Likelihood)
and New Risk (Impact x Likelihood).

Existing Reducible Risk

Impact

Residual Risk

Impact

4. Very
High

M
(4)

H
(8)

VH
(12)

VH
(16)

4. Very
High

M
(4)

H
(8)

VH
(12)

VH
(16)

3. High

L
(3)

M
(6)

H
(9)

VH
(12)

3. High

L
(3)

M
(6)

H
(9)

VH
(12)

2.
Medium

L
(2)

M
(4)

M
(6)

H
(8)

2.
Medium

L
(2)

M
(4)

M
(6)

H
(8)

1. Low

VL
(1)

L
(2)

L
(3)

M
(4)

1. Low

VL
(1)

L
(2)

L
(3)

M
(4)

1. Unlikely 2. Possible 3. Likely

4. Very
Likely

1. Unlikely 2. Possible 3. Likely

Likelihood

Likelihood

New Risk

Impact
4. Very
High

M
(4)

H
(8)

VH
(12)

VH
(16)

L
(3)

M
(6)

H
(9)

VH
(12)

2.
Medium

L
(2)

M
(4)

M
(6)

H
(8)

1. Low

VL
(1)

L
(2)

L
(3)

M
(4)

3. High

4. Very
Likely

1. Unlikely 2. Possible 3. Likely

OVERALL SCORE

RISK OPTIMIZATION LEVEL

11 to 16

Very High

8 to 10

High

4 to 7

Medium

2 to 3

Low

Very Low

None

4. Very
Likely

Likelihood

2015 ISACA. All rights reserved.

Business Innovation Scoring Calculations

Existing Reducible Risk Impact: An estimate of the most likely negative impact on businesses of an existing risk that could be
reduced by deploying the trend successfully (at least 80% of the expected benefit realized and risk optimized)

SCALE

4. Very
High

REVENUE
(Or $
Equivalent)
More than
5% loss in
revenue
Or temporary
loss of more
than 10%

3. High

2-5% loss in
revenue
Or temporary
loss of
4-10%

2.
Medium

1-2% gain in
revenue
Or temporary
gain of 2-4%

1. Low

Less than
1% gain in
revenue
Or temporary
gain of up to
2%

0. None

No loss in
revenue

REPUTATION

COMPETITIVE
ADVANTAGE

Significant loss
in reputation in
more than one
key group with a
stake

Significant loss in
ability to deliver
on more than one
key business plan/
objective

Or moderate loss
in most groups

Or moderate
loss across most
business plans/
objectives

Significant loss in
reputation in one
key group with a
stake

Significant loss in
ability to deliver on
one key business
plan/objective

Or moderate loss
in more than one
group

Or moderate loss
across more than
one business plan/
objective

Moderate gain in
reputation in one
key group with a
stake

Moderate gain in
ability to deliver on
one key business
plan/objective

PRODUCTIVITY

Significant loss
in efficiency in
more than one key
business unit

LEGAL/
REGULATORY
COMPLIANCE

MARKET
VALUE
More than
10% loss in
market value

Or personal prison
Or large class
action

Or moderate loss in
most business units

Significant loss in
efficiency in one key
business unit

Regulatory
sanction

5-10% loss in
market value

Or moderate loss
in more than one
business unit

Regulatory fine
Or personal
conviction
Or significant legal
liabilities
Or medium class
action

Moderate gain in
efficiency in one key
business unit

2-5% gain in
market value

Regulatory finding
Or moderate legal
liabilities
Or small class
action

Small/temporary
gain in reputation
in one or more
group with a
stake

Small/temporary
gain in ability to
deliver on one or
more business
plan/objective

Small/temporary gain
in efficiency in one or
more business units

Less than
2% gain in
market value

Regulatory
comment

No loss in
reputation in
any group with a
stake

No loss in ability
to deliver on any
business plan/
objective

No loss in efficiency
in any business unit

No loss in
market value

No legal or
regulatory impact

Or limited legal
liabilities

NOTE: Temporary is less than 2 years.

2015 ISACA. All rights reserved.

Business Innovation Scoring Calculations

Existing Reducible Risk Likelihood: An estimate of the proportion of businesses that are experiencing the estimated Existing
Reducible Risk Impact

SCALE

LIKELIHOOD OF GAIN

DESCRIPTION

4. Very Likely

More than 80% of businesses

Most (possibly all) businesses in most (possibly all) industries/sectors would

be damaged.

3. Likely

50-80% of business

Most (possibly all) businesses in some industries/sectors would be

damaged, although some industries/sectors may not be relevant.
Or some businesses in most (possibly all) industries/sectors would be
damaged.

2. Possible

10-50% of businesses

Most (possibly all) businesses in a few industries/sectors would be

damaged.
Or some businesses in some industries/sectors would be damaged.
Or a few businesses in most (possibly all) industries/sectors would be
damaged.

1. Unlikely

Less than 10% of businesses

Some businesses in a few industries/sectors would be damaged.

Or a few businesses in some industries/sectors would be damaged.
Or a few businesses in a few industries/sectors would be damaged.
Or it is not yet known if any businesses would be damaged, but there is
plenty of speculation.

2015 ISACA. All rights reserved.

Business Innovation Scoring Calculations

Residual Risk Impact: An estimate of the most likely

remaining negative impact on businesses of an existing risk that
has been mitigated by deploying the trend successfully (at least
80% of the expected benefit realized and risk optimized), using
the same table used for Existing Residual Risk Impact
Residual Risk Likelihood: An estimate of the proportion of
businesses that would experience the estimated Residual Risk
Impact, using the same table used for Existing Residual Risk
Likelihood
New Risk Impact: An estimate of the negative impact on
businesses of the newly introduced risk that results from
deploying the trend successfully (at least 80% of the expected
benefit realized and risk optimized), using the same table used
for Existing Residual Risk Impact

Investment Cost: An estimate of the financial cost (negative

impact) on businesses of the investment to deploy the trend
successfully (at least 80% of the expected benefit realized
and risk optimized). This may include short-term costs (i.e.,
salaries for the project team) and long-term costs (i.e., salaries
for new ongoing roles, tech support contracts). This does not
include any reductions in other investments as a result of the
deployment; e.g., a new system deployment may result in the
retirement of a previous system and therefore its associated
ongoing support costs (including maintenance).
SCALE

8. Exceptional

INVESTMENT COST

Equivalent to more than 1% loss

in revenue
Or a temporary loss of more
than 2%

New Risk Likelihood: An estimate of the proportion of

businesses that would experience the estimated New Risk
Impact, using the same table used for Existing Residual Risk
Likelihood
4. Very High

Equivalent to 0.75-1% loss in

revenue

RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION LEVEL

Or a temporary loss of 1.5-2%

Resource Optimization is derived using assessments of

Investment Cost and Business Operations Disruption (Impact x
Likelihood).

Equivalent to 0.5-0.75% loss in

revenue

3. High

Or a temporary loss of 1-1.5%

OVERALL SCORE

RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION LEVEL

16 to 24

Exceptional

11 to 15

Very High

8 to 10

High

4 to 7

Medium

2 to 3

Low

Very Low

0-0.9

None

2. Medium

Equivalent to 0.25-0.5% loss in

revenue
Or a temporary loss of 0.5-1%

1. Low

Equivalent to 0-0.25% loss in

revenue
Or a temporary loss of 0-0.5%

0. None

Equivalent to no loss in revenue

NOTE: Temporary is less than 2 years.

2015 ISACA. All rights reserved.

Business Innovation Scoring Calculations

Business Operations Disruption Impact: An estimate of the negative impact on businesses of the disruption associated with
deploying a trend successfully (at least 80% of the expected benefit realized and risk optimized). The size, scope and duration of
the people/process/technology change that businesses will have to go through to deploy the trend successfully are considered.

SCALE
4. Very
High

3. High

2.
Medium

1. Low

0. None

REVENUE
(Or $
Equivalent)

REPUTATION

COMPETITIVE
ADVANTAGE

Significant loss
in reputation in
more than one
key group with a
Or temporary stake
loss of more
Or moderate loss
than 10%
in most groups

Significant loss in
ability to deliver
on more than one
key business plan/
objective

Significant loss
in reputation in
one key group
Or temporary with a stake
loss of
Or moderate loss
4-10%
in more than one
group

Significant loss in
ability to deliver on
one key business
plan/objective

Moderate loss in
reputation in one
key group with a
Or temporary stake
loss of 2-4%

Moderate loss in
ability to deliver on
one key business
plan/objective

More than
5% loss in
revenue

2-5% loss in
revenue

1-2% loss in
revenue

Or moderate
loss across most
business plans/
objectives

Or moderate loss
across more than
one business plan/
objective

PRODUCTIVITY
Significant loss
in efficiency in
more than one key
business unit

MARKET
VALUE
More than
10% loss in
market value

Or moderate loss in
most business units

Significant loss in
efficiency in one
key business unit

LEGAL/
REGULATORY
COMPLIANCE

Or personal
prison

Or significant
legal liabilities
Or medium class
action

Moderate loss in
efficiency in one
key business unit

2-5% loss in
market value

Regulatory
finding
Or moderate
legal liabilities

For less than 1 year, all

business units/divisions
have low to moderate
people/process/
technology change.
Or one/more business
units/divisions have
significant people/
process/technology
change.
For less than 1 year,
one/more business
units/divisions have low
to moderate people/
process/technology
change

Small/temporary
loss in efficiency
in one or more
business units

Less than
2% loss in
market value

Regulatory
comment

No loss in
revenue

No loss in ability
to deliver on any
business plan/
objective

No loss in
efficiency in any
business unit

No loss in
market value

No legal or
regulatory
impact

NOTE: Temporary is less than 2 years.

Or one or more
business units/divisions
have significant people/
process/technology
change.

Or small class
action

Small/temporary
loss in ability to
deliver on one or
more business
plan/objective

No loss in
reputation in
any group with a
stake

For more than 1 year,

all business units/
divisions have low
to moderate people/
process/ technology
change.

5-10% loss in Regulatory fine

market value
Or personal
conviction

Small/temporary
loss in reputation
in one or more
group with a
Or temporary stake
loss of up to
2%
Less than
1% loss in
revenue

For more than 1

year, all business
units/divisions have
significant people/
process/technology
changean example
could be a business
model change.

Regulatory
sanction

Or large class
action

Or moderate loss
in more than one
business unit

POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS

Or limited legal
liabilities

No disruption in
any business units/
divisions

2015 ISACA. All rights reserved.

Business Innovation Scoring Calculations

10

Business Operations Disruption Likelihood: An estimate of the proportion of businesses that would experience the estimated
Business Operations Disruption Impact

SCALE

LIKELIHOOD OF DISRUPTION

DESCRIPTION

4. Very Likely

More than 80% of businesses

Most (possibly all) businesses in most (possibly all) industries/sectors would

be disrupted this much.

3. Likely

50-80% of business

Most (possibly all) businesses in some industries/sectors would be

disrupted this much, although some industries/sectors may not be relevant.
Or some businesses in most (possibly all) industries/sectors would be
disrupted this much.

2. Possible

10-50% of businesses

Most (possibly all) businesses in a few industries/sectors would be

disrupted this much.
Or some businesses in some industries/sectors would be disrupted this
much.
Or a few businesses in most (possibly all) industries/sectors would be
disrupted this much.

1. Unlikely

Less than 10% of businesses

Some businesses in a few industries/sectors would be disrupted this much.

Or a few businesses in some industries/sectors would be disrupted this much.
Or a few businesses in a few industries/sectors would be disrupted this much.
Or it is not yet known if any businesses would be disrupted this much, but
there is plenty of speculation.

2015 ISACA. All rights reserved.

Business Innovation Scoring Calculations

11

ASSESSMENT CONFIDENCE
Confidence in each trends assessment is determined.

RATING
Very High

CHANCE THAT
ASSESSMENT IS WRONG
>1:10

DESCRIPTION
More than 90% probability that reality is within the assessed ratings.
Ratings are based on high-quality information from multiple trusted (nonbiased) sources or
a single highly reliable source, or the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid
judgment. If any remaining uncertainties exist, they could only have a low effect.
Ratings are based on high-quality information from multiple trusted (nonbiased) sources or
a single highly reliable source, or the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid
judgment. Remaining uncertainties exist that could have a moderate effect.
Ratings are based on good-quality information from multiple semi-trusted sources or a
single trusted (nonbiased) source. If any remaining uncertainties exist, they could only have
a low effect.

High

1:5-10

Between 80-90% probability that reality is within the assessed ratings.

Ratings are based on high-quality information from multiple trusted (nonbiased) sources or
a single highly reliable source, or the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid
judgment. Remaining uncertainties exist that could have a significant effect.
Ratings are based on good-quality information from multiple semi-trusted sources or
a single trusted (nonbiased) source. Remaining uncertainties exist that could have a
moderate effect.
Ratings are based on uncertain-quality information from multiple semi-trusted sources
or a single trusted (nonbiased) source. If any remaining uncertainties exist, they could only
have a low effect.

Medium

1:2-5

Between 50-80% probability that reality is within the assessed ratings.

Ratings are based on good-quality information from multiple semi-trusted sources or
a single trusted (nonbiased) source. Remaining uncertainties exist that could have a
significant effect.
Ratings are based on uncertain-quality information from multiple semi-trusted sources
or a single trusted (nonbiased) source. Remaining uncertainties exist that could have a
moderate effect.

Low

<1:2

Less than 50% probability that reality is within the assessed ratings.
Ratings are based on uncertain-quality information from multiple semi-trusted sources
or a single trusted (nonbiased) source. Remaining uncertainties exist that could have a
significant effect.

2015 ISACA. All rights reserved.