Error

The difference between the measured value and true

value is called Error
Hence, it is important to know how close the measured
value is to the true value.

True value = Measured value Errors

Systematic Errors:

Random Errors:

These errors have some

identifiable source and may be
corrected by calibration. Like
zero drift, sensitivity drift, etc.

These errors can not be sourced out and

hence can not be corrected.
Due to temperature change, humidity,
wind, vibrations, electromagnetic field,
etc.
Since, this error arises from a multiple
sources, it is impossible to quantify.

Uncertainty Analysis
Since the total error includes random error, which
are uncertain, errors are usually referred to as
uncertainties.
For any experimental study, uncertainties analysis
must be performed and reported along with the
measurements.

Estimation of Random Errors

Since random errors are not deterministic, a
probabilistic approach is used.

Probabilistic
distribution

approach

involve

probability

Gaussian or Normal distribution is commonly used

The function is constructed by taking several samples
of a certain measurement and constructing a
frequency distribution function
Counting the number of occurrences of a certain
value in an interval.

Propagation of Uncertainties
Consider the measurement of an effective resistance of
a circuit comprising three resistors in series

So, R1, R2 and R3, have to be measured.

There would be uncertainties in the measurement of each of
these resistances, which will affect the Reff .

Kline & McClintock Method, 1953.

Consider a variable N (dependent) which is calculated from
various measurements such as u1, u2, u3,u4.un and
governed by the function

N = f (u1, u2 , u3 ,....., un )
The total uncertainty (in N) n would include uncertainties
of ui ; ie u1, u2, u3, u4, un
Therefore;

N + N = f (u1 + u1, u2 + u2 ,......, un + un )

Expand f(u1, u2, u3un) by Taylors series;

f (u1 + u1, u2 + u2 ,....., un + un ) =

f
f
f (u1, u2 ,..., un ) +
u1 +
u2 + ....
u1
u2
f
+
un + O(u1 ) 2 + O(u1 )3
un
Ignoring second and higher derivatives;

f
f
f
N =
u1 +
u2 + .... +
un
u1
u2
un

Sometimes the estimated error may be wrong . Some time

systematic errors may have equal magnitude in OPPOSITE
sign; they may tend to cancel out each other. So, a
reasonable estimate would be the Residual Sum of Squares
error or root-sum-square (RSS) given by;
Overall error is given by
2

f
f

N =
u1 +
u2 + ... +
un
u1
u2

un

RMS: Measure of the magnitude of a varying quantity

In statistics, the residual sum of squares (RSS) is the sum of

squares of residuals. It is also known as the sum of squared
residuals (SSR) or the sum of squared errors of prediction (SSE). It
is a measure of the discrepancy between the data and an estimation
model. A small RSS indicates a tight fit of the model to the data.
In general, total sum of squares = explained sum of squares +
residual sum of squares

Example problem
Calculate the uncertainty in head loss hl expressed as
2

flV
hl =
2 gd

Given uncertainties in l,v and d are 2%, 4% and 1%. Ignore

the uncertainties in f and g

Solution
2

hl hl f

hl =
l +
v + d
l v d
fv 2 hl
hl
where
=
= ;
l 2 gd l

hl 2 fvl hl
=
=
v 2 gd 2v

hl
hl fv 2l
=
=

d 2 gd 2
d

hl 2 fvl hl
=
=
v 2 gd 2v

h
fv
hl
=
= l;
l 2 gd l

hl
hl fv 2l
=
=
2
d 2 gd
d
1/ 2

l 1 v d
hl = hl + +
l 4 v d
2

1/ 2

1
2
2
2

hl = hl [ 0.02] + [ 0.04] + [ 0.01]

4

1/ 2

hl
1
2
2
2
= [ 0.02] + [ 0.04] + [ 0.01]
hl
4

Total Error = 3 %

= 0.03

Points to be noted:
In many mechanical problems, we assume the value
of g is 9.8.
However, in reality; there is an uncertainty in the
value of g, which has to be accounted where the
situation arises.
So, expect for universal constants, all other
parameters used for estimating a quantity to be
considered while calculating the total uncertainties.

Find uncertainties is the following calculated quantities

Flow rate in fully developed laminar region

pd 4
Q=
128 l
Grashof Number; Gr

Gr =

g 2 (Ts T )l 3

Given uncertainties in p, d, , l, , and T are 4%, 2%,

3%, 2%, 4%, 5% and 2 C

Airflow rate of 17m3/h through a pipe of 60 mm ID at 20oC is measured

using a square edged orifice (
= 0.4). A pressure drop observed is
157.85 N/m2 with 0.4%. If the area of orifice is maintained within 0.2 %,
estimate the design stage uncertainty in the flow rate. Assume
accuracies of Cd and are 0.5%. Estimate the total error in the
measurement for Cd = 0.63 and P = 0.97 bar abs and R= 287 J/kg K.

Solution

For an orifice, Q = CdA(2p/)1/2

2

Q
Q Q
Q
Q =
C d +
A +
( P) +

C d
A P
2

Q Q Q Q
Q Q
Q
Q
=
;
= ;
=
;
=
C d C d A A p 2 p
2
1/ 2

uC d 2 u A 2
u p 2
u 2
= ( ) + ( ) + ( ) + (
)
Q Cd
A
2
2p

uQ

C d
= 0.005
Cd

A
= 0.002
;
A

p
= 0.004
p

P
=
RT
95000
=
287 X 293
= 1.13 kg / m3

= 0.005

Total uncertainty

u p 2
u 2
uA 2
2
d
= (
) +( ) +( ) +(
)
Q Cd
A
2
2p
uC

uQ

uQ

1/ 2

2 1/ 2

= (0.005) + (0.002) + (0.5 X 0.005) + (0.5 X 0.004)

Q
uQ
= 0.63%
Q
Total Error
Q = Cd A

2 P

= 0.63

(0.06) 2

2 157.85
= 0.03 m3 / hr
1.13

Properties of the Normal or

Gaussian Function

The area under the Gaussian Curve is 1, hence the
maximum probability is 1. i.e., the probability of any real
value to lie between -
to + is 1.

The area lies under [-
, +
] is 68%: the change that a
measurement will be out of the given limits is 1 in 3 times

The area lies under [-2
, +2
] is 95.4% ; in every 20
measurements, one may fall out of the given limits

The area lies under [-3
, +3
] is 99.7% ; one
measurement in every 300 measurements may fall outside
of the limits

Gaussian function narrows with decreasing

Procedure for expressing experimental uncertainty

Step 1 : Take sufficient large number of samples x
Step 2 : Obtain mean xm, and standard deviation
Step 3 : Express measurement as x = xm n

Graphical Presentation of Data

1. Graph usually serves to communicate knowledge from the
author to the readers .
2. Graphs plays a vital role in testing the theoretical calculations
against real experiments results.
3. There are some situation, where it is very difficult to conduct
experiments through out the range of parameters. Hence,
graphs are highly useful to interpolate / extrapolate the
output in the missed regions ( where the exact details of out
put is not known).

General rules for plotting graphs

1.

The graphs should be plotted in such a way that the reader should
understand the conveyed information with out any difficulties.

2.

The axes should have clear labels i.e. name of quantities, units, and
their symbol if necessary

3.

Axes should be clearly numbered and should have clear tick marks
with significant numerical divisions (Sub division also should be
clearly mentioned)
1.6

Hydrogen storage capacity ( wt%)

1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6

MmNi4.6Al0.4
ma=0.4 kg

0.4
Absorption temperature = 27C
Absorption pressure
= 80 bar

0.2
0
0

10

Number of cycles

Fig.1 Activation characteristics of MmNi4.6Al0.4

12

4.

Use scientific notation to avoid placing of too many digits on the

graph.

5.

When plotting on log coordinates, use real logarithmic axes. Log

scales should have tick marks at powers of 10 .

6.

Choice of the scales in axes should be based on the relative

importance of the variations shown in the results and the also based
on the availability of data.
25

18
16

Compressor work ( kJ)

Compressor work ( kJ)

20

y = -0.1827x2 + 11.864x - 173.56

R2 = 1

14
Compressor work

12
MmNi4.6Al0.4
Tc = 20C, Ps = 10 bar
ma = 0.4 kg, Th = 85C

10
8

20

15

y = -0.1827x2 + 11.864x - 173.56

R2 = 1

10

Compressor work
MmNi4.6Al0.4
Tc = 20C, Ps = 10 bar
ma = 0.4 kg, Th = 85C

0
28

30

32

34

36

Delivery pressure ( bar)

38

40

42

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Delivery pressure ( bar)

Fig.2 Effect of delivery pressure on compressor volumetric efficiency

45

Hydrogen compressed (g)

100

MmNi4.6Al0.4
Tc = 20C, Ps=5 bar
ma = 0.4kg

3.5

95C

95C
85C

10

85C

75C

75C

2.5
2
0.1
1.5
1

0.01

Hydrogen compressed
Hyderogen compression rate

0.5
0

Hydrogen compression rate Log (g/min.)

4.5

Use of Logarithmic scale

0.001
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Time (s)

4.5

MmNi4.6Al0.4
Tc = 20C, Ps=5 bar
ma = 0.4kg

Hydrogen compressed (g)

4
3.5

95C
85C

75C

95C

85C

75C

2.5

2
1.5

Hydrogen compressed
Hyderogen compression rate

0.5

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Time (s)

Fig. Stages of compression at supply pressure 15 bar

500

Hydrogen compression rate (g/min.)

Fig. Stages of compression at supply pressure 15 bar

same data without Logarithmic

scale

7. Use specific symbols for the experimental data points.

Analytical results are expressed by using straight lines.
8. Indicate the maximum uncertainty of the estimated quantity.
9. When the two different dependent variables are compared
with a common parameter, a secondary Y axis should be used.
10.When several curves are plotted on a single graph, use
different pattern of line such as solid line, dotted line, dashed
line etc. In case of experimental results use different legends
for differentiating the curves.
11.Other independent parameters should be specified in the
graphs. Lettering on the graphs should be clearly visible.
12. Title of the graph should be placed at the bottom and the titles
should be properly numbered. Choice of the scales in axes
should be based on the relative importance of the variations
shown in the results.

Representation of experimental and numerical simulation

9

Compressor efficiency (%)

8
7
6
5
4
3
2

Experimental values
Numerical simulation

Ps = 5 Bar
Ps = 10 Bar
Ps = 15 Bar

MmNi4.6Al0.4
Tc = 20C
ma = 0.4 kg

0
70

75

80

85

90

Hot fluid / Heat source temperatures (C)

95

Fig.20. Effects of hot fluid temperature and supply

pressure on compressor efficiency

100

40

=
=
=
=

Equilibrium pressure (bar)

35
30

MmNi4.6Fe0.4
MmNi4.6Al0.4

10C
15C
20C
25C

25
20
15
10
5
0
0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Concentration (H/M)

Fig.4. PCT characteristics of the two mischmetal based alloys

1.2

Use of secondary Y axis

45

16

40

Hydrogen storage pressure (bar)

Hydrogen storage pressure

Compression rate

U = 1000 W/m K
Tc = 20C
Ps = 10 bar
Th = 85C
Vs = 3.8 litre

35
30

14
12
10

25

8
20

6
15

10
5

0
1600

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Compression rate (g/min)

MmNi4.6Al0.4

Time (s)

Fig. Cyclic performance of hydrogen compressor (Storage volume 3.8 l)

Choosing X Y Coordinates

Linear - Linear
Liner Logarithmic ( Semi log )
Logarithmic Logarithmic (Full log)
Polar coordinates ( Quantities varies with an angle)

Selection of axis

Semi log Scale

Correlation coefficient = R and

Coefficient of determination = R2

SS residual
R = 1
SStotal
2

SS residual = i=1 ( Ei Pi )
n

SStotal = ( n 1) 2

n
i =1

(E E)

= standard deviation
Ei = Experimental value
Pi = Predicted value
n = total numberof data

METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES

Method of obtaining the correlation between the quantity to be
measured (y) and the variable by graphical analysis.

S = i =1 yi ( axi + b )

y = ax + b

For the best accuracy of fit, S should tend to zero

Goodness of the fit is revealed by correlation coefficient, r.

y2, x
r = 1 2
y

[ yi yic ]
= i =1
n2

y, x

1/2

[ yi y m ]
y = i =1
n 1

yi are actual values

yic are computed from correlation equation

1/2

f (a, b) = a + bx
Vertical least squares fitting proceeds by finding the sum of the squares of the
vertical deviations of a set of data points . The error E is defined as
n

E (a, b) = [ yi (a + bx)]2
2

i =1

n
( E 2 )
= 2 [ yi (a + bxi )] = 0
a
i =1

n
( E 2 )
= 2 [ yi (a + bxi )]xi = 0
b
i =1

These lead to the equations

n

i =1

i =1

na + b xi = yi
n

a xi + b xi = xi yi
2

i 1

n
x
i =1

i =1

i =1

n
x

i
i =1
a i =1 yi
n
=

n
2

b
x

x
y

i =1 i i

i =1

 n
a
= n
b x
i =1

x
i=1 i
n

2
xi

i =1

1
n

y
i =1 i
n xy
i =1 i i

The 2x2 matrix is of the form

a
1
=
b n n xi2
i =1

( x )
n

i =1 i

n y n x2 n x n x y
i =1 i i =1 i i=1 i i =1 i i
n n xy n x n y

i=1 i i i=1 i i=1 i

Observation
1. For a perfect fit y,x = 0; here r = 1. There is no variation
between the estimated values and the values obtained from
the correlation.
2. r = 0 indicates a poor fit or the values are widely scattered
around a straight line. Hence, the value of r should be closer
to 1 for a good fit.
3. It is necessary to observe the behavior of the fit and also
their range of scatter. If the data scatter but still appear to
follow a liner relationship, then a fit is also said to be poor
one.

Example

= A1 exp

RT
n

---------(1)

Q
ln
= ln A1 + n ln
RT
Q
Ei = ln
ln A1 + n ln +
RT
The minimization of the error is carried out by finding the
partial derivatives of iN=1 Ei2
w.r.t ln(A1), n and Q/R and
setting them equal to zero, where N is the number of
observations. Taking the partial derivatives, the following
equations are obtained

 i =1 ln A1 + i =1 n ln i =1 ln
n

( ln ln A ) +
n

i =1

n
i =1

n ( ln )

Q
n
= i =1 ln (
)
RT

n
ln Q
i =1 ln
= i =1 ( ln ln (
) )
RT
n

ln A1
n n ln
n
n ln (
)
Q
i =1
i =1
+ i =1
= i =1
2
T
T
RT
T
n

In the matrix form, this can be written in the form

N ln
i =1

N 1
i 1

i =1 ln
N

2
(ln

)
i =1
N

ln
i =1
T
N

T ln ( A ) i =1 ln

1
N

N ln
n = i =1 ln ln

i =1
T

N ln

N 1

i =1 T 2 R i =1 T
i =1
N

the matrix form,

N ln
i =1

N 1
i 1
T

i =1 ln
N

2
(ln
)

i =1

i =1
N

ln
T

ln

T ln ( A ) i =1

N
N ln
i =1
n = i =1 ln ln
m
T

N ln
m

N 1
i =1 T 2 R i =1 T
i =1
N

This is of the form [A][x] = [b]

where the elements of [A] and [b] are obtained from the experimental
data. The three
unknown parameters , lnA1, n and Q1/R of equation
Q

= A1 n exp

are determined by solving

RT
1

[ x ] = [ A] [ b ]

250
Applied pressure vs milliampere

Applied Pressure (bar)

200

Linear (Applied pressure vs milliampere)

150

y = 12.804x - 51.611
R2 = 1

Range 0-200 bar

Trendline

100

50

0
0

10

15

20

Milliampere (mA)

Fig. Calibration of pressure transducer

25

20

Compressor work ( kJ)

18
16
Compressor work

14

Different
Patterns of fit

y = -0.0457x + 2.2782x - 9.35

2
R =1

12
10

MmNi4.6Al0.4
Tc = 20C, Ps = 10 bar
ma = 0.4 kg, Th = 85C

8
6
15

20

25

30

35

45

40

Delivery pressure ( bar)

22

Compressor work ( kJ)

20

y = 41.718e-0.0362x
R2 = 0.7532

18
16
14
Compressor work

12
10

MmNi4.6Al0.4
Tc = 20C, Ps = 10 bar
ma = 0.4 kg, Th = 85C

8
6
15

20

25

30

35

Delivery pressure ( bar)

40

45

Different pattern
of fits
Reference:
J.P.Holman

Different pattern
of fits

Reference:
J.P.Holman

General Considerations in Data Analysis

Elimination of inconsistent data: Analysis the data
carefully. Try to eliminate the inconsistent data or the error
data. Suppose the measurement itself consists of many
inconsistent data, the entire experiments may be repeated.
Estimate the Uncertainty : Detailed uncertainty analysis
should be performed before doing the data analysis.
Anticipate the results from the theory : Before trying to
obtain the correlations of the experimental data, investigators
should carefully review the theoretical background of the
estimated quantity. This may be useful for determining the
graphical formats, etc. e.g. First order instrument
Correlate the data: Critical review of the results.

Kline & McClintock Method, 1953.

N = f (u1, u2 , u3 ,....., un )

Consider a variable N,

The total uncertainty (in N), N was defined by root sum squares

f
f

N =
u1 +
u2 + ... +
un
u1
u2

un

a. Uncertainties for product functions

In cases where the result function takes the form of the product
of respective primary variables raised to exponent expressed as

N = f (u1a1u2a 2u3a 3 ..........unan )

The partial differentiation results

N
= u1a1u2a 2u3a 3 (ai uiai 1 )..........unan
ui
Dividing by N,

1 N ai
=
N ui ui
2 1/2

N ai ui
=

N
xi

Inserting in the equation for N

b. Uncertainties for addition function

When the result function has an additive form, N will
be expressed as

N = a 1 u 1 + a 2 u 2 + . .. ... ... . + a n u n =

N
= ai
ui
1/2
2
N

2
2 1/2
N =
( ui ) = ( ai .ui )
ui

a iu i

Practical use of uncertainty analysis

1. For revealing the confidence level in the results.
2. For selection of measurement method
3. For instrument selection

Sample Problems
1. The resistance of a copper wire is given as R = R0[1+(T-20)].
Where Ro = 6 0.3% is the resistance at 20C.
= 0.004C 1%, T = 30 1C.
Calculate the uncurtaining in the resistance of the wire.
2. A resistor has an nominal stated value of 10 1%. A voltage is
impressed on the resistor and the power dissipation is to be
calculated in two different ways. (i) Only voltage is measured (ii)
both Voltage and current will be measured. Calculate the uncertainty
in power for each case when the measured values of E and I are
E = 100V 1% (for both case and I= 10A 1%.