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## DECISION MAKING AND ANALYSIS

ROBERT STINE
Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

DEAN FOSTER
Wharton School

Boston

Columbus

New York

Amsterdam
Delhi

Indianapolis

San Francisco

Cape

Milan

Mexico

Town

Munich

City

Dubai
Paris

Sao Paulo

London

Montreal

Toronto

Sydney

## Hong Kong Seoul Singapore Taipei

Tokyo

CONTENTS
Preface
Index of

xi

Application

Introduction

1.1

What is Statistics? 2

1.2

Previews 4

1.3

Data

13

2.1

Data Tables 14

2.2

2.3

2.4

Time Series 20

2.5

## Further Attributes of Data 21

Chapter Summary
3

xix

24

Describing Categorical

Data

3.1

Looking

3.2

3.3

The Area

3.4

## Mode and Median 40

28

at Data 29

Principle

35

Chapter Summary 43
4

Describing Numerical

Data

52

4.1

4.2

## Histograms and the Distribution of Numerical Data 57

4.3

Boxplot 60

4.4

Shape of

4.5

Epilog 66

Distribution 62

Chapter Summary 69

## Association between Categorical Variables

5.1

Contingency Tables

5.2

Lurking Variables

5.3

Strength

78

and

of Association 89

Chapter Summary

95

85

CONTENTS

6.1

Scatterplots

6.2

Association in

6.3

Measuring

6.4

Summarizing

6.5

104

105

Scatterplots

107

Association 109
Association with

Line 115

123

Chapter Summary

## STATISTICS IN ACTION Financial time series 134

STATISTICS IN ACTION Executive

' \pt

rwo

compensation

142

Probability
7

150

Probability
From Data to

7.2

Rules for

7.3

Independent

Probability

7.1

Probability

151

156

Events 161

## Chapter Summary 165

8

Conditional Probability

8.2

Dependent

8.3

8.4

Events

Chapter Summary
9

174

8.1

178

190

Random Variables

196

9.1

9.2

9.3

Properties

9.4

of

Expected Values

200

205
207

## Chapter Summary 209

10 Association between Random Variables
10.1

10.2

Joint

10.3

10.4

10.5

## IID Random Variables 230

10.6

Weighted

Probability Distribution

Sums 232

Chapter Summary

11

221

236

11.1

11.2

243

218

CONTENTS

11.3

11.4

Chapter Summary
12 The Normal

257

Probability

12.2

12.3

Percentiles 271

12.4

## Departures from Normality

Chapter Summary

part' three

Model

12.1

261

272

278

STATISTICS IN ACTION

## Managing Financial Risk 287

STATISTICS IN ACTION

Inference
13

## Samples and Surveys

304

Surprising Properties of

13.1

Two

13.2

Variation 310

13.3

Alternative

13.4

Sampling 305

Sampling Methods

Chapter Summary

314

321

## 14 Sampling Variation and Quality

14.1

Sampling Distribution of

14.2

14.3

Using

14.4

## Control Chart 334

Chapter Summary

343

15 Confidence Intervals

351

15.1

15.2

15.3

15.4

15.5

## Margin of Error 364

Chapter Summary

371

16 Statistical Tests

378

16.1

16.2

16.3

16.4

Other

Chapter Summary

397

362

325

vii

17.1

## A Confidence Interval for the Median 404

17.2

Transformations 410

17.3

## Prediction Intervals 411

17.4

Proportions Based

Small

on

Samples

415

424

18 Comparison
18.1

Data for

18.2

Two-sample

18.3

18.4

425

Comparisons
f-test 427

## Chapter Summary 444

STATISTICS IN ACTION Rare Events 450
STATiSTICS IN ACTION

## Testing Association 456

Regression Models
19 Linear Patterns

464

19.1

Fitting

19.2

19.3

## Properties of Residuals 472

19.4

Explaining Variation

19.5

## Line to Data 465

Chapter Summary

467

474

Regression 475

481

20 Curved Patterns

488

20.1

Detecting Nonlinear

20.2

Transformations 491

20.3

Reciprocal Transformation

492

20.4

Logarithm Transformation

497

Chapter Summary
21 The Simple

Patterns 489

506

Regression Model

21.1

The

21.2

21.3

21.4

Simple

513

22 Regression

Diagnostics

545

22.1

Problem 1:

22.2

Problem 2:

22.3

Problem 3:

## Chapter Summary 566

CONTENTS

23

Multiple Regression
The

23.2

## Interpreting Multiple Regression

23.3

Checking Conditions

23.4

## Inference in Multiple Regression

23.5

Multiple Regression

Steps

in

Fitting

Chapter Summary
24

Model 574
575

581
584

Multiple Regression

## Building Regression Models

Identifying Explanatory Variables

24.2

Collinearity

24.3

## Removing Explanatory Variables

25 Categorical

Explanatory

Analysis of Covariance

25.3

Checking Conditions

25.4

25.5

## Regression with Several Groups

Chapter Summary

636

639

642

651

656

of Variance

26.1

Comparing

26.2

Inference in Anova

26.3

26.4

Groups

665

## Several Groups 666

Regression Models

673

## of Different Size 680

Chapter Summary
27 Time Series

686

694

27.1

Decomposing

27.2

Regression Models

27.3

Chapter Summary

## Time Series 695

698

719

STATISTICS IN ACTION

Analyzing Experiments

## STATISTICS IN ACTION Automated

Appendix: Tables

Modeling

743

A-l

Photo Acknowledgments
1-1

616

Variables

Two-sample Comparisons

Index

606

627

25.2

605

611

25.1

Analysis

588

594

24.1

Chapter Summary

26

573

23.1

C-1

728

736

635

ix