CHENNAI
THESIS
ON
FORMULATING THE USE OF DERIVATIVES STRATEGIES
IN
EQUITY MARKET
SUBMITTED BY
REUBEN DAVIS .J
UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF MR. BHASKAR REDDY
FINANCE
BATCH - PGP/FW/05-07
ALUMNI ID FW/FIN/00423
ABSTRACT
Financial markets are extremely volatile and hence the risk factor is an important concern
for financial agents. To eliminate this risk, the concept of derivatives comes into the
picture. During 2005 month of may stock market saw an historic crash, and investors lost
heavily because most of these investors did not hedge their risks by using equity
derivatives. And which strategies to use in growing, static, declining market.
Given the importance of derivatives in an emerging market like India it is no wonder that
share broking firms are investing heavily in building up infrastructure and mining up
cliental base to increase market share. The latest trend in the market shows retail
investors are responding in line with the institutional investors which requires efficient
traders to make them understand about the F&O strategies. Indian stock market is also act
in line with performance of the overseas markets; recent market trend clearly gives an
indication, where proper derivative strategies could have saved investors from huge
losses. Now as the market is showing a growth trend there is an ample opportunity to the
investors to take proper strategies to play in the market and adhere to the popular saying
BE FEARFUL WHEN OTHERS ARE GREEDY, AND BE GREEDY WHEN OTHERS
ARE FEARFUL ie take proper hedging positions even when the market is in uptrend,
Hence Equity derivatives are very important for a volatile market like in India,
As Nowadays traders are aware of these popular strategies but they are not aware of
which situations to apply these derivatives strategies in the market
The market methodology followed is primary data collected from a channel of network
that involves independent
- Large retailers, Financial institutions, Banks, HNIs, Fund houses, Brokers who use
these derivative strategies or use them on behalf of their clients.
- Also dealing room operations.The dealings of the firm with its client investors will
properly observed and studied in detail.
-
Questionnaire survey.
And secondary data from a host of book materials, and Derivatives materials
The expected outcomes from the thesis is to understand and apply how to use the concept
of equity strategies and under what market conditions these should be used. Equity
market strategies and try to beat the market by hedging positions and implies the use of
all the popular equity derivatives strategies with practical examples
CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the Thesis entitled Formulating the use of Derivatives strategies in
Equity Market is the original work and has been successfully carried out by Reuben
Davis.J in partial fulfillment of Post Graduate Diploma in Management under my
guidance during the academic year 05-07.
Date:
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This Thesis has given me immense insights about the practical aspect of Derivative
strategies and its working. I got to learn a lot about the derivatives trading and the way
they handle their clients and projects. This project also helped me to improve my report
making skills and the true understanding of derivatives
Foremost I would like to thank my internal guide Prof R.Krishnan for approving this
topic and guiding me throughout the project. Then I would like to thank my external
guide Mr. Bhaskar Reddy without whom this project wouldnt be a success. He helped
me at each and every stage of this project.
Next I would like to thank all the respondents and all my colleagues at Motilal Oswal
Financial services who gave their valuable time and their insights on the research topic
without which it would be impossible.
Last but not the least want to thank God whose grace and mercy was with me throughout
this thesis preparation.
Reuben Davis.J
Dear Reuben,
I have received your synopsis as well as the confirmation that Prof. Bhasker Reddy
would guide you through the thesis. This letter is a formal approval to the topic proposed
by you Formulation of strategies in the use of Derivatives in equity market.
Please go ahead with the thesis.
Remember to register yourself at the IIPM-Chennai Library with Mr. Sekar
( r.sekar@iipm.edu ) and send me the id number for my records. Furthermore, you are
required to send me at least 6 Thesis Guidance Response Sheets every time you interact
with your Guide during the course of the Thesis. Once you send me the id number, I shall
email the thesis response sheet to you.
Regards,
R. Krishnan
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SR.NO
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
2
2.1
2.2
3
4
5
6
7
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
PARTICULARS
INTRODUCTORY ITEMS
Abstract
Signatory Page
Acknowledgement
Topic Approval Letter
Table of Contents
CONTENTS
Introduction
Literature Review
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
RESEARCH ANALYSIS
RECOMMENDATION
CONCLUSION
ANNEXURE
Thesis Synopsis
Response Sheets
Questionnaire
Bibliography
PAGE NO.
2-8
2
4
5
6
7
8 - 10
11 - 50
51 - 53
54 - 70
71 - 73
74 - 75
76
77 - 78
79 84
85 - 88
89 - 90
2.1 INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
Stock markets extremely risky and volatile and hence the risk consideration is an
important concern for investors. To reduce this risk, the concept of derivatives comes into
the picture. Derivatives trading commenced in India in June 2000, SEBI permitted the
derivative segments of two stock exchanges, NSE and BSE, and their clearing
house/corporation to commence trading and settlement in derivatives contracts, The
trading in BSE Sensex options commenced on June 4, 2001 and the trading in options on
individual securities commenced in July 2001. Futures contracts on individual stocks
were launched in November 2001.
Single stock futures were launched on November 9, 2001. The index futures and options
contract on NSE are based on S&P CNX, at present Mutual Funds are permitted to
participate in the derivatives market for the purpose of hedging (minimizing risk) and rebalancing their portfolio.
The derivatives market performs a number of functions:
1. They help in transferring risks from risk averse people to risk oriented people
2. They help in the discovery of future as well as current prices
3. They give rise to entrepreneurial activity
4. They increase the volume traded in markets because of participation of risk averse
people in greater numbers
5. They increase savings and investment in the long run period
The market methodology followed is primary data collected from a channel of network
that involves independent
-
- Also dealing room operations.The dealings of the firm with its client
investors will properly observed and studied in detail.
-
Questionnaire survey.
And secondary data from a host of book materials, and Derivatives materials
The expected outcomes from the thesis is to understand and apply how to use the concept
of equity strategies and under what market conditions one should use these Equity market
strategies and try to beat the market by hedging our holdings and implies the use of all
the popular equity derivatives strategies with practical examples
10
11
LITERATURE REVIEW
Meaning of Derivatives:
A Derivative are types of investments whose performance are amplified from the
performance of assets (such as commodities, shares or bonds), interest rates, exchange
rates, or indices (such as a stock market index like Nifty and Sensex). This performance
can determine both the amount of the payoffs. The diverse range of underlying assets and
payoff alternatives leads to a huge range of derivatives contracts available to be traded in
the financial market. The main types of Equity derivatives are futures and options
A very simple example of derivatives is curd, which is derivative of milk. The price of
curd depends upon the price of milk which in turn depends upon the demand and supply
of milk. See it this way. And the price of Cipla warrants depends upon the price of Cipla
shares. American depository receipts/global depository receipts of ICICI, Satyam and
Infosys traded on stock exchanges in the USA and England dont have their own values;
They draw their price from the underlying shares traded in India. Even the value of
mutual fund units changes on a day to day basis. Dont mutual fund units draw their value
from the value of the portfolio of securities under the schemes; these examples prove that
derivatives are not so new to us.
Equity Futures :
Contracts which a investor or trader can buy to take advantage of the market and protect
against unwanted price movements ie buy hedging his portfolio against unwanted risks
arising from volatility of prices. Every time futures contract is bought a fixed margin
which is calculated per stock basis and trade on that margin basis is needed to be paid to
buy Infosys in lot sizes ie 200 or 300 lot size per stock, if bought in cash market full
amount need to be paid ,But if bought in futures it can be played on just the margin
amount and take advantage of market movements if the Infosys stock falls then the long
futures position loses But if the Infosys stock rises then the Infosys position gains
12
Equity Options :
Contracts which give used by traders or investors wherein a call or put options is bought
ie the equivalent of long futures and short futures but unlike the futures position which
makes profit ,if the long futures make profits when underlying share prices rise,
Options the pay-off is only when exiting our positions so its less riskier than futures
which means the loss is restricted the loss is only to the premium amount paid and the
profit position is unlimited when into a Options contract the premium is paid and if in one
week the premium rises due to underlying market movements then the position can be
exited and make profits in that position
History of Derivatives
Derivatives trading in 1865 by Chicago Board of Trade listed the first exchange traded
futures contract in the USA. In 1919 The Chicago Butter and Egg Board, a spin-off of
CBOT, was formed to allow futures trading. Its name was changed to Chicago Mercantile
Exchange (CME). In April 1973, the Chicago Board of Options Exchange was set up
specifically for the purpose of trading in options. The market for options developed so
rapidly that by early 80s the number of shares underlying the option contract sold each
day exceeded the daily volume of shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange.
And there has been no looking back ever since then for Derivatives. (Ref: Wikipedia)
13
14
(Ref: www.bseindia.com)
15
16
In futures the investor can short sell/buy without having the stock and carry the
position for a long time, which is not possible in the cash market
An investor can buy and sell index instead of individual securities when he has a
general idea of the direction in which the market may move in the next few
months.
The investor is required to pay a small fraction of the value of the total contract as
margin. This means trading in stock index futures is a leveraged activity since the
investor is able to control the total value of the contract with a relatively small
amount of margin.
17
Example: Suppose the investor expects a Rs100 stock to go up by Rs10. One option
is to buy the stock in the cash segment by paying Rs100. He will then make Rs10 on
an investment of Rs100, giving about 10% returns. Alternatively he can take futures
position in the stock by paying Rs30 towards initial and mark-to-market margin. Here
he makes Rs10 on an investment of Rs30, i.e about 33% returns.
In the case of individual stocks, the positions, which remain outstanding on the
expiration date, will have to be settled by physical delivery, which is not the case
in futures.
18
Features of Options:
PUT Option: Buyer of a Put Option on a particular Stock gets the right to Sell the
underlying Stock, whereas Seller/Writer of the Put Option is obliged to Buy the
underlying Stock if the buyer of Put decides to Exercise his / her Option. When the spot /
cash price (less cost) is lower than the Strike price, the buyer of Put could exercise his
right to sell at the Strike price.
19
Example: suppose you bought a put option of 2,000 shares of HLL at a strike price of
Rs250 per share. This option gives its buyer the right to sell 2,000 shares of HLL at
Rs250 per share on or before March 30, 2007. The seller of this put option who has given
you the right to sell to him is under obligation to buy 2,000 shares of HLL at Rs250 per
share on or before March 30, 2007 whenever asked.
Difference between Options and Futures:
Understanding Options requires understanding of concepts of right and obligation.
On entering an Option contract the buyer gets the right and the seller (also called the
writer) has the obligation/ gives the right. But in futures, both the buyer and the seller
are under obligation to fulfill the contract and the buyer and seller are subject to
unlimited risk of losing. But in Options, The seller is subject to unlimited risk of losing
whereas the buyer has a limited potential to lose, in futures the buyer and seller have
unlimited potential to gain, But in Options the seller of the option has limited potential to
gain while the buyer of the has unlimited potential to gain.
Swaps : where the two parties agree to exchange cash flows. The two commonly used
swaps are :
Interest rate swaps: These entail swapping only the interest related
cash flows between the parties in the same currency
Currency swaps : These entail swapping both principal and interest
between the parties, with the cashflows in one direction being in a
different currency than those in the opposite direction
20
Ex: Take the case of investor who holds the shares of a company and gets uncomfortable
with market movements in the short run , He sees the value of his security falling from
Rs. 450 to Rs. 390 . In the absence of stock futures he would either suffer the discomfort
of a price fall or sell the security in anticipation of a market upheaval . with security
futures he can minimize his price risk All he need to do is enter into an offsetting stock
futures position , in this case take on a short futures position . Assume that the spot price
of the security he holds is Rs .390. Two-month futures cost him Rs. 402. For this he pays
an initial margin. Now if the price of the security he holds falls further he will suffer
losses on the security he holds. However the losses he suffers will be offset by the profit
he makes on his short futures position. Hedging, in its broadest sense, is the act of
protecting oneself against loss.
Hedging is not confined to the private sector, Governments also use it. Governments use
this to stabilize a countrys export earnings or to protect farmers producing export crops.
Some countries are already making extensive use of futures and options for this purpose.
21
Similarly, futures and options can be (and are) used by governments to hedge against
short-term rises in import prices (e.g. the price of crude oil).
Based on the above explanation hedging can thereof be described as a method of
protection against uncertainty. Since, in common and less rigorous parlance,
uncertainty is often referred to as risk, hedging can also be described as a form of
insurance against non-insurable risks. However it provides a lower degree of protection
than insurance since hedges are often only partially effective.
Speculators: If a futures market is restricted to hedgers alone, it is quite conceivable that
one or other group of hedgers would be unable to hedge without distorting the price
because of the absence of counter parties to the transactions. It is here that the role of the
speculator becomes apparent. It is the speculators who take up the slack in the market
and provide liquidity. The speculators have no specific interest in the commodity rather
they are risk seekers whose interest stems from the profit which they expect to make from
assuming the price risk.
Let us see the main use of speculation, we can say yes as there can be no effective
hedging since the volume of demand for long and short hedging will not be equal except
by occasional coincidence. It must be noted that the practice of speculation, by
facilitating hedging, reduces the costs of marketing. Secondly, speculative activity
increases the liquidity of markets thereby enabling hedgers to transact large volumes of
business on the market quickly, easily and without unduly affecting the market price.
22
futures markets do not diverge from the level dictated by supply and demand and in
ensuring speedy correction of any pricing anomalies.
Example:
On a particular day, the shares of TNPL are selling at Rs. 82 in the Bombay Stock
Exchange while at the same time the price in the Delhi Stock Exchange is Rs. 80.A
stockbroker simultaneously buys the share in Delhi and sells it in Bombay. By so doing
he realizes a profit of Rs. 2 without any risk and with hardly any capital (barring any
margin required to put through the trade). This is an arbitrage transaction.
Leveraged positions
Hedging of portfolio
Futures carry similar risks as their underlying stocks. The maximum risk to the
buyer of an Option is limited to the Premium paid. For a seller / writer the risk
increases considerably as the market moves against him / her. The writer is at risk
of having his / her position assigned by a profitable buyer who Exercises his / her
position. NSE requires individual investors to maintain adequate amounts as
margins against risk of loss.
23
Futures trading are inherently riskier than trading in cash because of the higher
values of contracts involved. For example: A trader could buy/sell 15
INFOSYSTCH at say Rs.4000.00 in cash market. In the Futures market a
minimum of 100 (one lot) INFOSYSTCH has to be traded. Hence the total value
of trade has increased from Rs.60,000.00 in cash market to Rs.4,00,000.00 in the
Futures Market. A fall of Rs.20.00 in cash market amounts to a loss of Rs.300.00
as against a loss of Rs.2000.00 in the Futures market.
24
The price at which Exercise takes place is days closing price of underlying stock. When
a buyer Exercises his / her position a sellers position automatically gets assigned. Once
the position is Exercised / Assigned this position ceases to exist.
Meaning of In-the-money Option:
Options that provide the holder positive cash flows if exercised immediately are called
In-the-Money options.
Meaning of At-the-money Option:
Options that provide the holder zero cash flows if exercised immediately are called At-the
Money options.
Meaning of Out-of-money Option:
Ones that provide negative cash flows if exercised immediately are called Out-of-money
Options.
The out flows while trading in Options are:
The buyer of an option pays a small amount as Premium to the seller for privilege of
getting the right to exercise his / her option. It is also the maximum amount that the buyer
stands to lose when the market moves against his / her expectations. This amount is due
on T+1. Similarly, the seller of options receives the premium amount on T+1. Here, T is
the day of trading.
There are two levels of margins to be paid at the client level. Initial Margin and
Marked-to-market margin.
Initial Margin amount is charged upfront. This value determines the gross
exposure to be taken by the investor. The extent of exposure given on a particular
margin amount depends on several factors including the Volatility of the scrip, the
Open interest on the scrip, and the extent of Hedging used. NSE uses software
called SPAN to calculate margins. Up to 30% of total Initial margin can be paid in
stocks.
25
Variance margin: On a particular day, the difference between the Contract price
and Closing price of the underlying scrip determines the net gain or loss on the
contract. Any debits/losses above the MTM margin is required to be paid on the
next day of the trade (T+1). (See annexure)
Pricing Futures:
Pricing of Futures contract is very simple. Using the cost of carry logic, It is by
calculating the fair value of a futures contract. Every time the observed price deviates
from the fair value, arbitragers would enter into trades to capture the arbitrage profit. This
in turn would push the futures price back to its fair value. The cost of carry model used
for pricing futures is given below:
F= SerT
Where,
r = Cost of financing (using continuously compounded interest rate)
T = time till expiration in years
e = 2.71828
Example: Security xyz ltd trades in the market at rs. 1150. Money can be invested at 11%
pa. The fair value of a one-month futures contract on xyz is calculated as follows:
F= SerT
= 1150*e0.11*1/12 = 1160.
26
Pricing Options:
An Option buyer has the right but not the obligation to exercise on the seller. The worst
that can happen to a buyer is the loss of the premium paid to him. His downside is limited
to this premium, but his upside is potentially unlimited. Just like other free markets, its
the supply and demand in the secondary market that drives the price on an option.
There are various models, which help us get close to the true price of the option.. The
Black-Scholes formulas for the prices of European calls and puts on a non-dividend
paying stock are:
Where d2=
d1-
27
4220
28
Nifty
Loss
Profit
4220
0
Nifty
Loss
Options payoffs
29
+60
0
4160
4220
4280
Nifty
-60
Loss
Payoff profile for seller of asset: Short asset
In this basic position, an investor shorts the underlying asset, Nifty for instance, for 4220,
and buys it back at the future date at an unknown price, s`. Once it is sold, the investor is
said to be short the asset.
Profit
+60
30
4160
4220
4280
Nifty
-60
Loss
4250
0
Nifty
86.60
Loss
31
price, more is the loss he makes. If upon expiration the spot price of the underlying is less
than the strike price, the buyer lets his option expire un-exercised and the writer gets to
keep the premium.
Profit
86.60
4250
0
Nifty
Loss
Profit
4250
0
Nifty
61.70
32
Loss
Profit
61.70
4250
0
Nifty
Loss
33
Now we will look at the basic Equity Derivative strategies widely used
BASIC STRATEGIES IN EQUITY
BUY CALL
Pay-off
34
35
Hedging
Speculation
Arbitrage
36
is not a focused play on the valuation of Reliance. It carries a LONG NIFTY position
along with it, as incidental baggage. The stock picker may be thinking he wants to be
LONG RELIANCE, but a long position on Reliance effectively forces him to be LONG
RELIANCE + LONG NIFTY.
There is a simple way out. Every time you adopt a long position on a security, you should
sell some amount of Nifty futures. This offsets the hidden Nifty exposure that is inside
every longsecurity position. Once this is done, you will have a position which is purely
about the performance of the security. The position LONG RELIANCE + SHORT
NIFTY is a pure play on the value of RELIANCE, without any extra risk from
fluctuations of the market index. When this is done, the stock picker has hedged away
his index exposure. The basic point of this hedging strategy is that the stock picker
proceeds with his core skill, i.e. picking securities, at the cost of lower risk.
37
38
A closed-end fund that just finished its initial public offering has cash, which is
not yet invested.
Suppose a person plans to sell land and buy shares. The land deal is slow and
takes weeks to complete. It takes several weeks from the date that it becomes sure
that the funds will come to the date that the funds actually are in hand
An open-ended fund has just sold fresh units and has received funds.
39
securities, which move with the index, and buy them at a later date: or, sell the entire
index portfolio and then buy it at a later date.
40
movements in the short run. He sees the value of his security falling from Rs.450 to
Rs.390. In the absence of stock futures, he would either suffer the discomfort of a price
fall or sell the security in anticipation of a market upheaval. With security futures he can
minimize his price risk. All he need do is enter into an offsetting stock futures position, in
this case, take on a short futures position. Assume that the spot price of the security he
holds is Rs.390. Twomonth futures cost him Rs.402. For this he pays an initial margin.
Now if the price of the security falls any further, he will suffer losses on the security he
holds. However, the losses he suffers on the security, will be offset by the profits he
makes on his short futures position. Take for instance that the price of his security falls to
Rs.350. The fall in the price of the security will result in a fall in the price of futures.
Futures will now trade at a price lower than the price at which he entered into a short
futures position. Hence his short futures position will start making profits. The loss of
Rs.40 incurred on the security he holds, will be made up by the profits made on his short
futures position.
Speculation: Bullish security, buy futures
Take the case of a speculator who has a view on the direction of the market. He would
like to trade based on this view. He believes that a particular security that trades at
Rs.1000 is undervalued and expect its price to go up in the next twothree months. How
can he trade based on this belief? In the absence of a deferral product, he would have to
buy the security and hold on to it. Assume he buys a 100 shares which cost him one lakh
rupees. His hunch proves correct and two months later the security closes at Rs.1010. He
makes a profit of Rs.1000 on an investment of Rs.1,00,000 for a period of two months.
This works out to an annual return of 6 percent. Today a speculator can take exactly the
same position on the security by using futures contracts. Let us see how this works. The
security trades at Rs.1000 and the two-month futures trades at 1006. Just for the sake of
comparison, assume that the minimum contract value is 1,00,000. He buys 100 security
futures for which he pays a margin of Rs.20,000. Two months later the security closes at
1010. On the day of expiration, the futures price converges to the spot price and he makes
a profit of Rs.400 on an investment of Rs.20,000. This works out to an annual return of
41
12 percent. Because of the leverage they provide, security futures form an attractive
option for speculators.
42
4. On the futures expiration date, the spot and the futures price converge. Now unwind
the position.
5. Say the security closes at Rs.1015. Sell the security.
6. Futures position expires with profit of Rs.10.
7. The result is a risk less profit of Rs.15 on the spot position and Rs.10 on the futures
position.
8. Return the borrowed funds.
When does it make sense to enter into this arbitrage? If your cost of borrowing funds to
buy the security is less than the arbitrage profit possible, it makes sense for you to
arbitrage. This is termed as cashandcarry arbitrage. Remember however, that
exploiting an arbitrage opportunity involves trading on the spot and futures market. In the
real world, one has to build in the transactions costs into the arbitrage strategy.
43
7. The result is a riskless profit of Rs.25 on the spot position and Rs.10 on the futures
position.
If the returns you get by investing in riskless instruments is less than the return from the
arbitrage trades, it makes sense for you to arbitrage. This is termed as reversecashand
carry arbitrage. It is this arbitrage activity that ensures that the spot and futures prices stay
in line with the costofcarry. As we can see, exploiting arbitrage involves trading on the
spot market. As more and more players in the market develop the knowledge and skills to
do cashandcarry and reverse cashandcarry, we will see increased volumes and lower
spreads in both the cash as well as the derivatives market.
Using Options
When we are bullish about the market:
Buy call option, sell put option
When we are bullish about the market we can buy a call option and pay premium on it,
Simultaneously we can sell a put option, and get premium on it, this is because incase the
market comes down we can be hedged against the losses, Take in this situation the spot
price rises above the strike price we will exercise the option because we will have the
right to buy. So we will earn a profit. And the person whom we sell the put option will be
under loss so he will forego the contract hence we will also keep the premium he gave us
as profit.
44
loss so he will forego the contract hence we will also keep the premium he gave us as
profit.
45
1)
2)
3)
RIL
Chevron
Public
Total
Rs.3,375 crores
Rs.225 crores
Rs.900 crores
Rs.4,500 crores
Rs.2,700 crores
2)
Rs.4,050 crores
337.50 cr.
Rs.6,750 crores
Total
RIL has almost realized its cost of Rs.4,050 crores for subscribing 67.50 shares, in April
2006, at Rs.60 per share. Since, investments sold are based on FIFO (first in first out)
basis, shares having subscribed at par were presumed to have been sold, on which long
term capital gain of Rs.3,842 crores, has been earned by RIL, which is tax free.
So, effective cost of 71% stake in RPL, for 319.46 crores shares are Rs.2,727 crores,
translating into, cost per share at Rs.8.54 . The market value of this is close to Rs.67,000
crores.
One may recall, that Chairman of RIL, Mukesh Ambani, in company's 33
rd
AGM held in
October in Mumbai, had stated that the company would be capitalizing on the
investments held, including that of RPL. Nobody, could predict this move, likely to be
taken by RIL at a future date.
Now what could be likely move and developments, post this minority stake sale: 1)
The control of RIL on RPL is not affected as this is a minor dilution, and 71%
stake is quite reasonable, in the mega refinery, which would vastly improve the
4
46
RIL would have an other income of Rs.3,842 crores, in quarter ending December
07, which would give an extra EPS of Rs.26.50, on enhanced equity of Rs.1,453 crores,
post IPCL merger.
3)
RIL has been able to mop up close to Rs.4,000 crores (tax free) when it needs
RIL may further decide to offload .99% stake, being 4.46 crore share, and realize
5)
Chevron, presently has 5% stake in RPL, with an option to raise it to 29% by June
09, post commencement of refinery. The preferential allotment can only be made, based
on SEBI formula, which would be at Rs.200 plus, (presuming market price to remain
above Rs.200). At this rate, Chevron may not be interested in raising its stake to 29% as it
would need close to Rs.30,000 crores. Hence, Chevron, would opt to offload its 5% stake
in favour of RIL, at Rs.60 per share, as per the terms of the share subscription Agreement.
6)
On happening this event, RIL would be able to raise its stake, back to 75%, at a
The informed circles, having initiated shorts in F&O at an average of Rs.275 per
As majority of retail investors are long, they would opt to roll over their positions
47
in December series, as bullish outlook on the stock, continues, for various reasons (no
need to elaborate them).
2)
Informed circle, holding short position of close to 10 crore shares, may not be
interested in rolling over, as market perception has changed positive, on the stock. But, in
this case, they may be interested to see a lower rate, on closing day, (Thursday 29
th
3)
Since, no more, delivery based selling is expected on the counter, weakness may
If informed circle, tries to bring down the price on closing day, lot of interested
buying may be seen, below Rs.200 per share, from investment and arbitrage view point.
In nutshell, this was a calculated move, by RIL, whereby, huge cost has been recovered,
coupled with retaining majority and respectable stake. Also, the market (cash and F&O)
is in full control of the management, which would take direction, on the next move of the
management, as that will have far reaching consequences.
THE BARINGS BANK DEBACLE
The derivative trading is not as easy as perceived. Here is a famous case that depicts the
how risky the business is. The events that led to the fall of Barings, Britain's oldest
merchant bank, is a example of how not to manage a derivatives operation. The control
and risk management lessons to be learnt from this fall are the same as much to cash
positions as they do to derivative ones. The leverage and liquidity offered by futures
contracts makes an institution fall with lightning speed.
The activities of Nick Leeson on the Japanese and Singapore futures exchanges led to the
downfall of Barings. The build-up of the Nikkei positions by Leeson went in the opposite
direction to the Nikkei - as the Japanese stock market fell. Before the earthquake, Nikkei
4
48
traded in a range of 19,000 to 19,500. Leeson had long futures positions of approximately
3,000 contracts on the Osaka Stock Exchange. A few days after the earthquake, Leeson
started an aggressive buying programmed which culminated in a high of 19,094 contracts
reached about a month later.
Barings collapsed as it could not meet the enormous trading obligations, which Leeson
established in the name of the bank. When it went into receivership on February 27,
1995, Barings had outstanding notional futures positions on Japanese equities and interest
rates of US$27 billion: US$7 bn on the Nikkei 225 equity contract and US$20 bn on
Japanese government bond (JGB) and Euro yen contracts. Leeson sold 70, 892 Nikkei
put and call options with a nominal value of $6.68 bn. The nominal size of these positions
is breathtaking; their enormity is all the more astounding when compared with the banks
reported capital of about $615 million.
But Leeson's Osaka position reflected only half of his sanctioned trades. If Leeson was
long on the OSE, he had to be short twice the number of contracts on SIMEX. Because
Leeson's official trading strategy was to take advantage of temporary price differences
between the SIMEX and OSE Nikkei 225 contracts. This arbitrage, which Barings called
'switching', required Leeson to buy the cheaper contract and to sell simultaneously the
more expensive one, reversing the trade when the price difference had narrowed or
disappeared. This kind of arbitrage activity has little market risk as the positions were
always matched. But Leeson was not short on SIMEX, infact he was long approximately
the number of contracts he was supposed to be short. These were unauthorised trades
which he hid in an account named Error Account 88888. He also used this account to
execute all his unauthorised trades in Japanese Government Bond and Euro yen futures
and Nikkei 225 options: together these trades were so large that they ultimately broke
Barings.
(www.karvy.com/articles/baringsdebacle.htm)
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In just the past couple weeks, an extremely intriguing anomity has arisen in the Indian
stock markets. The famous Put/Call Ratio 21-day moving average has soared above 1.00
for the first time in at least a decade! This odd development is vexing bulls and bears
alike.
The Put/Call Ratio, or PCR, is a powerful technical trading indicator that monitors the
stock and stock-index bets that speculators are making at any given time. Speculators
who expect individual stocks or the indices to fall in the months ahead buy put options,
derivatives bets which increase in value when prices decline. Speculators who expect
rising prices buy call options, which promise hefty payouts on higher prices.
The PCR quantifies the ratio of the daily trading volume in these two opposing bets,
granting speculators valuable insights into what the majority happens to be expecting.
When the PCR is above 1.00, as today, it literally means that the daily trading volume on
puts is higher than calls. Translated into pure sentiment terms, it indicates that the
majority probably expects lower prices in the months ahead. And since we humans are
naturally bullish, a PCR above 1.00 is an extraordinarily rare event.
Todays high PCR anomaly is difficult to interpret, as I will outline in this essay. Both
bullish and bearish cases can be built around this surreal development, and the contrarian
slant on this is complex as well. While I certainly wish there was an easy bullet-proof
interpretation of this odd event, its sudden appearance today within the context of current
market conditions is a puzzling mystery. (This Pointer taken from www.zealllc.com)
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3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
51
Research Methodology:
The whole study was totally based on the primary data there was no as such formal
procedure most of the research was done in the dealing room
As it is one type of mechanism so a lot of time was spent to understand the concept. Most
important factor in this research was the dealing room operation. The dealings of the firm
with its client investors was properly observed and studied in detail.
The total sample size was 50 i.e. the number of cases considered during the project for
various dealings.
The main function was to look at the screen and watch how the market is basically
moving with the change in time. The data was primary and secondary data and collected
from the Orion software and Falcon software. All over the world there are lots of stock
exchanges dealing with Equity derivatives but for the purpose of the study NIFTY has
been considered and various examples are quoted using Nifty and certain stock
derivatives are taken for examples when strategies are quoted using examples and
studying the futures and options market during different market times and trying to adopt
different strategies for different types of market conditions like Bull run ,bear run and
heavy volatile and during consolidation trends of the market.
The market methodology followed is primary data collected from a channel of network
that involves independent
- Financial institutions, Banks, HNIs, AMCs, Brokers who use these
derivative strategies or use them on behalf of their clients.
- Also dealing room operations.The dealings of the firm with its client
investors will properly observed and studied in detail.
- Questionnaire survey with the various derivatives dealers and with feedback
and tips were taken from Derivatives strategist team.
52
And secondary data from a host of book materials, and Derivatives materials
The expected outcomes from the thesis is to understand and apply how to use the concept
of equity strategies and under what market conditions we should use these Equity market
strategies and try to beat the market by hedging our holdings and implies the use of all
the popular equity derivatives strategies with practical examples it has been illustrated
well for even a layman can understand and try to grasp how these strategies are useful in
the stock markets
53
54
INFOSYSTCH
View:
Bullish
Strategy:
Rationale:
breakout & should find a target of around 2300 in the next few trading sessions.
Long Call:
Spot Price:
Rs .2230/-
55
Strategy:
56
Spot value:
3930 levels
Strategy:
57
Result: The put option appreciated to Rs.134 as the index fell and we sold off the
position resulting in a profit. A graphical representation of this strategy position is
given below
MAXIMUM PROFIT:
Unlimited
MAXIMUM LOSS:
58
3)
Stock: ACC
Outlook: Bearish to stagnant
Strategy: SHORT (Sell) CALL
Rationale: The government has imposed a cut in the import duty on
cement. This would be detrimental for the cement sector. Also the stock is
trading in a oversold zone.
Short Call:
Initiated on 28 April
Spot Price:
Rs .1020/-
trended downwards.
We therefore kept the premium that we collected which was our net profit. A
graphical representation of this strategy position is given below
59
Unlimited
SAIL
60
5) Strategies you use when the stock is expected to move far enough in either
direction in the short-term
Index:
NIFTY
Outlook: Highly Volatile
Strategy: LONG STRADDLE (Buy an equal number of calls and puts of
the same strike price and same expiry)
Rationale: Due to global markets the NIFTY Index is expected to volatile
Long Straddle: Initiated on 1st May
Spot Value:
4090 levels
Strategy:
Buy NIFTY 4100 May CA @ Rs.90 (Lot size = 50)
Buy NIFTY 4100 May PA @ Rs.110 (Lot size = 50)
Result:
NIFTY broke the crucial support level of 4050 and
trended downward to 3800 levels. The put option
was profitable and the call option expired worthless
resulting in a net profit. This strategy is profitable if
NIFTY is above 4300 or below 3900.
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NIFTY
Stagnant to range-bound
SHORT (Sell) STRADDLE (Sell an equal number of calls
and puts of the same strike price and same expiry)
Rationale: The market is expected to be in a consolidation
phase for the next 10-15 trading sessions.
for both
62
Stock:
TISCO
Outlook:
Highly Volatile
Strategy:
LONG (Buy) STRANGLE (Buy an equal number
of calls and puts at different strike prices and same expiry)
Rationale: The stock could respond either way with high volatility due to
the Corus takeover.
Long Strangle:
Spot Price:
Strategy:
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BREAK EVEN POINTS: 520, i.e., upper strike price + premiums paid
430, i.e., lower strike price premiums paid
MAXIMUM PROFIT: Unlimited
MAXIMUM LOSS:
Total premium amount paid
Result:
BREAK EVEN POINTS: 191, i.e., upper strike price + premiums paid
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SBIN
Moderately Bullish
BULL SPREAD
(Buy a call and sell a call at a higher strike)
Rationale:
Bull Spread:
Spot Price:
Strategy:
suggesting
Result:
65
Bear Spread:
Spot Value:
Strategy:
Result:
resulting in
NIFTY
Moderately Bearish
BEAR SPREAD
(Buy a put and sell a put at a lower strike)
The short term trend for the NIFTY Index
is down & it finds strong support around
4000 levels.
Initiated on 12th Mar
4100 levels
Buy NIFTY April 4100 PE @ Rs.52 (Lot size = 50)
Sell NIFTY April 4000 PE @ Rs.28 (Lot size = 50)
Nifty headed lower after this strategy and the puts
increased in value. We sold the 4100 put for Rs.104
and bought back the 4000 put for Rs.51,
a net profit of Rs.29 per lot. A graphical
representation of this option position is
given below
66
67
INFOSYSTCH
Mildly Bearish
Bear Put Ratio Spread
(Buy a put and sell/three lower strike puts)
The strategy acts as a hedge upto the level of 2100 in
INFOSYSTCH.
Infosys Tech Bear Put Ratio Spread
Rs.2240 levels
Buy INFOSYSTECH Mar 2230 PA @ Rs.60 (Lot size = 100)
Sell INFOSYSTECH Mar 2190 PA @ Rs.40 (Lot size = 100)
Sell INFOSYSTECH Mar 2160 PA @ Rs.30 (Lot size = 100)
Infosys Tech trended downwards and the 2230 put was profitable. After
clearing out all positions, net profit was made for this trade.
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HINDALCO
Moderately Bullish
PROTECTIVE PUT
(Own stock/futures, and buy a put)
Rationale:
The momentum in stock is good along with positive movement in
the RSI. Technically the stock is bullish with a target price of 190-195.
EXAMPLE:
HINDALCO Protective Put
Spot Price:
180 levels
Strategy: Buy HINDALCO futures @ 185 levels (Lot size = 1595)
Buy HINDALCO Feb 180 PA @ Rs.2.40 (Lot size = 1595)
Result: Hindalco stock was dented as a result of the Novelis takeover. The stock
came down to 140 levels but our loss was limited only to Rs.7.40 per contract. The
put option appreciated to Rs.40 and the futures closed at 140 levels during expiry.
Our loss was limited because of the protective put, without which we would have
incurred huge losses.
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NIFTY
Moderately bearish
PROTECTIVE CALL
(Sell futures and buy a call)
Rationale:
Technically the Index is looking weak. The Union Budget will be a
major trigger for deciding the trend of NIFTY.
EXAMPLE:
Spot Value:
Strategy:
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5. RECOMMENDATIONS
71
RECOMMENDATIONS
Major findings:
1) Due to more transparency and new policies implemented by SEBI players in this
market is increasing at a very high rate and the new comers are well-equipped to
compete with others. So most of the share broking firms are trying to grab new
customers in derivatives as well as to retain the old ones, so this requires fine ad
favourable brokerage charges as well as excellent service to their customers and
they have a separate desk for formulating or using equity derivatives
2) Broking firms should shift from Equity research to Derivatives research to be able
to compete with the foreign broking house when FDI in retail broking opens for
these foreign players
3) Few dealers are not professionally qualified to understand strategies to play on
behalf of their clients. This leads to reduction in the cliental base be it institutional
or broking.
4) During the recent market trend (where sensex has witnessed correction of 1500
points and nifty by 800 points) the broking houses successfully employed these
strategies and this was a huge benefit for its clients
72
Recommendations:
1)
The broking houses needs to recruit few more Derivatives analysts in their
research department to cope with the growth in Derivatives segment.
2)
Proper training has to be conducted for the dealers on time to time basis to
make them more knowledgeable and efficient to properly deal with the clients.
And to give proper advice in market crashes
3)
4)
5)
Bringing in more small size contracts for retail public to hedge their positions
like mini nifty (20 lot size) , chota sensex ( 5 lot size) etc.
6)
Reducing margins for easier access to f&o rather than heavy margins at present
7)
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8)
9)
6. CONCLUSION
74
CONCLUSION
Derivatives as a risk management tool should be employed after understanding the risk
profile of yourelf or your clients or it will lead to increased risk if not used at the right
time or without understanding the market trend. One should avoid using derivatives in a
very volatile market that would magnify the losses to a greater extent as we buy or sell in
lot sizes and should use proper strategies required in a volatile market and derivatives
trading will soon surpass the daily turnover in the cash segment in both BSE and NSE
currently derivatives trading is dominated by NSE in terms of turnover .
When retail broking space is opened to FDI we will be able to see more use of complex
derivatives product available in the market in India which is currently not available
Then we will be able to see retail public trading more in the derivatives segment than the
institutional trading which holds a majority of the chunk in the Derivatives trading
segment in India.
The advent of Derivatives trading in the country will change the face of the Indian capital
market very soon in terms of the volume of transactions, the nature and settlement of
trade, and the profile of market participants. I personally dont think many of our
colleagues in the business have really understood the impact that Derivatives can have on
the broking business. The growth of Derivatives as a mass trading technique in the
country is unstoppable, going by the indicators available and the signals for the future.
When it ultimately gathers momentum, the biggest beneficiary will be the traders and
speculators, who will be able to trade and speculate better than in the cash market
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With Derivatives one needs to apply common sense and take small positions in the
market rather than taking exuberant positions and losing the entire capital deployed in the
F&O segment DERIVATIVES ARE TO BE VIEWED AS WEAPONS OF MASS
DESTRUCTION as said by the great investor of all times Mr. Warren Buffet.
7. ANNEXURE
76
Reuben Davis.J
BATCH:
PGP/FW/05-07/FINANCE/61
SPECIALIZATION:
CONTACT NUMBER:
9833320959,43538048
EMAIL ID:
r9reuben@gmail.com
RESEARCH AREA:
Equity market
PROBLEM DEFINITION:
Financial markets are, by nature, extremely volatile and hence the risk factor is an
important concern for financial agents. To reduce this risk, the concept of derivatives
comes into the picture. During last year in the month of may stock market saw an historic
crash, and investors lost heavily because most of these investors did not hedge their risks
by using equity derivatives. And which strategies to use in growing, static, declining
market.
LITERATURE RELATING TO THE PROBLEM IN BRIEF:
Given the importance of derivatives in an emerging market like India it is no wonder that
share broking firms are investing heavily in building up infrastructure and mining up
77
cliental base to increase market share. The latest trend in the market shows retail
investors are responding in line with the institutional investors which requires efficient
traders to make them understand about the F&O strategies. Indian stock market is also act
in line with performance of the overseas markets; recent market trend clearly gives an
indication, where proper derivative strategies could have saved investors from huge
losses. Now as the market is showing a recovery trend there is an ample opportunity to
the investors to take proper strategies to play in the market.
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SAMPLING METHODOLOGY:
SAMPLE SIZE:
Large retailers-10
Financial institutions-10
Banks-10
HNIs-2
Brokers-8
F&O experts-10
79
RESPONSE SHEET 2
1) Name: J.REUBEN DAVIS
2) ID Number: FW/00423/Fin
3) The Topic of the study: Formulation of strategies in the use of
Derivatives in Equity market
4) Date when the Guide was consulted: June 26
5) The outcome of the discussion:
Feedback about questionnaire and materials about the basic study
6) The Progress of the Thesis:
Finished Questionnaire and collecting secondary data
80
RESPONSE SHEET 3
81
RESPONSE SHEET 4
1) Name: J.REUBEN DAVIS
2) ID Number: FW/00423/Fin
3) The Topic of the study: Formulation of strategies in the use of
Derivatives in Equity market
4) Date when the Guide was consulted: August 23
5) The outcome of the discussion:
Feedback on recommendations and findings
6) The Progress of the Thesis:
Finished recommendations now working on conclusion.
82
RESPONSE SHEET 5
1) Name: J.REUBEN DAVIS
2) ID Number: FW/00423/Fin
3) The Topic of the study: Formulation of strategies in the use of
Derivatives in Equity market
4) Date when the Guide was consulted: September 20th
5) The outcome of the discussion:
Feedback on project content and final additions and deletions
6) The Progress of the Thesis:
Finished thesis related work now working on presentations of final
thesis
83
RESPONSE SHEET 6
1) Name: J.REUBEN DAVIS
2) ID Number: FW/00423/Fin
3) The Topic of the study: Formulation of strategies in the use of
Derivatives in Equity market
4) Date when the Guide was consulted: October 1st
5) The outcome of the discussion:
Feedback on final additions and deletions
6) The Progress of the Thesis:
Finished thesis related work now working on annexure,bibliography of
final thesis
84
7.2 QUESTIONAIRE
85
86
_______________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
4) What Strategies you use when market view is mildly bearish? To minimize your
losses would you use Derivatives to minimize losses?
a) Bear Spread
b) Bear Call Ratio Spread
Reasons :
______________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
_________
5) What strategies you use when the stock is expected to move far enough in either
direction in the short-term? Would you venture into Derivatives in a highly rangebound market? If Yes Give Reasons
a) Buy Straddle
Reasons:__________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________
6) What strategies you use when the stock is expected to move far enough from the
Predefined range? Would you venture into Derivatives in a highly volatile
market? If Yes Give Reasons
a) Buy Strangle
Reasons:_______________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
7) What strategies when the stock price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range.?
Would you venture into Derivatives in a highly range-bound market? If Yes Give
Reasons?
a) Buy Butterfly
Reasons:_______________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
8) What strategies when the stock price are expected to move substantially?
Would you venture into Derivatives in a highly volatile market? If Yes Give
Reasons?
87
a) Sell Butterfly
Reasons:_______________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
9) When to use Bull call ratio spread? Under which market conditions to use?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
10) When to use Bear call ratio spread? Under which market conditions to use?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
88
7.3 BIBLIOGRAPHY
89
BIBLIOGRAPHY
www.numa.com
Ncfm Book on Derivatives
Demystifying Derivatives Sharekhan
www.bseindia.com
www.nseindia.com
www.wikipedia.com
www.karvy.com/articles/baringsdebacle.htm
www.zealllc.com
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