Emami Ltd
Emami Ltd
Bloomberg Code: HMN IN
BUY
Recommendation (Rs.)
High Margin Products in the Portfolio are expected to drive EBITDA growth
ahead of Sales growth: Recent acquisition of Kesh King Brand, accounts for
Target Price
Beta (x)
25607 / 7850
O/S Shares(mn)
227.0
1.0
72.7
FIIs
16.3
DIIs
1.2
Others
9.8
Relative to Sensex
1M
3M
6M
12M
10
(0)
(4)
(3)
14
Source: Bloomberg
Relative Performance*
150
130
110
90
Apr-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
70
Emami
yyCompetition.
yyVolatility in raw material prices.
0.7
Sensex/Nifty
Oct-15
Key Risks
0.2
1368 / 870
Nov-15
At CMP of Rs.1007, the stock is trading at P/E of 29.5x for FY18E. With the
anticipated increase in top line due to high margin products in the portfolio, rising
temperature across India, strong brand positioning, innovation and new product
launches which were favourably received by the market, with strong balance sheet
& financial ratios, we expect that the consumer expenditure will further increase as
the economy revives and hence there will be growth in Emamis top line and bottom
line as well. Based on P/E of 38.5x, we initiate the coverage with a BUY rating
for a Target Price of Rs.1313 representing an upside of 30% for a period of 12-15
months.
Sep-15
228500 / 3440
Jul-15
Aug-15
30
Jun-15
of the total revenue of Emami, with over 200 products in the portfolio under the
Zandu Brand. The company is also expected to extend the brand with couple of
new products; with the most recent launch of Zandu Honey, Emami is currently test
marketing these new products and it is expected to launch these products by the
end of FY17E.
1313
Stock Information
Apr-15
Marching ahead in the league of Herbal Products: Zandu accounts for ~25%
1007
Upside (%)
May-15
around 75% gross margin and 45% EBITDA margin as compared to the other
products in the portfolio. Kesh King Brand is expected to drive the top line growth
by around 8% to 10% additionally. This will enable Emami to record higher margins
in FY17E and FY18E.
Sensex
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
18208
22172
25334
29473
34504
27.6
24.4
22.8
23.7
25.0
5023
5401
5784
6992
8634
4025
4856
5240
6309
7743
RoE (%)
47.1
44.9
38.3
37.9
38.1
EPS (Rs.)
P/E (x)
17.7
24.5
21.4
46.8
23.1
40.4
27.8
36.2
34.1
29.5
Source: Company, Karvy Research, *Represents multiples for FY14 & FY15 are based on historic market price
For private circulation only. For important information about Karvys rating system and other disclosures refer
to the end of this material. Karvy Stock Broking Research is also available on Bloomberg, KRVY<GO>,
Thomson Publishers & Reuters
Analyst Contact
Kunal Jagda
kunalnarendra.jagda@karvy.com
Company Background
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
Net sales
22172
25334
29473
34504
EBITDA
5401
5784
6992
8634
16772
Depreciation
343
Interest
51
Other Income
383
51
22480
428
51
25870
476
51
918
1197
1371
1570
1070
1309
1577
1935
PBT
5924
Adj. PAT
4856
Tax
19550
6547
5240
7884
6309
9676
7743
24.4
22.8
23.7
25.0
P/E (x)
46.8
40.4
36.2
29.5
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.4
21.9
EV/EBITDA (x)
41.5
20.7
35.7
21.4
31.7
22.4
25.4
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
16763
20273
24278
29197
5834
7693
10009
13155
16763
20273
24278
29197
194
194
194
194
4776
Current assets
Other assets
6153
Total Liabilities
Networth
12306
Debt
Current Liabilities
3688
Other Liabilities
574
4917
7663
15023
4451
605
5359
5797
8910
10245
18293
22307
5147
6002
645
694
44.9
RoCE (%)
43.1
38.3
37.0
37.9
38.1
36.7
37.1
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.4)
(0.4)
P/BV (x)
18.5
14.1
12.5
10.2
73.4
74.1
75.3
76.4
Promoters
72.7%
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
PBT*
5924
6547
7884
9676
Tax
(956)
(1309)
(1577)
(1935)
Others
(705)
(1092)
(1265)
(1464)
Capex
(1098)
(500)
(844)
(887)
Depreciation
343
Changes in WC
734
CF from Operations
Investments
Others
5340
Change in Debt
CF from Financing
4247
5484
6761
(1000)
(1000)
(2337)
(361)
(531)
(375)
(52)
(51)
(51)
(51)
1139
(2120)
(2523)
814
1311
(2154) (2575)
Change in Cash
15
476
(1000)
19
Interest Paid
(282)
428
(18111)
16871
CF from Investing
383
1313
(3038)
(3090)
1863
1512
(3729)
(3780)
2605
FIIs
16.3%
DIIs
1.2%
Domestic
85.7%
International
14.3%
Others
9.8%
High Margin Products in the Portfolio are expected to drive EBITDA growth ahead of Sales growth:
Exhibit 4: Revenue & EBITDA Growth (%)
25%
20%
21.8%
16.6%
16.9%
15%
10%
20.9%
14.3%
11.8%
12.2%
16.3%
23.5%
17.1%
12.7%
5%
7.2%
7.5%
FY14
FY15
7.1%
0%
FY12
FY13
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
Zandu accounts for ~25% of the total revenue of Emami, with over 200 products in the portfolio under the Zandu Brand. The
company is also expected to extend the brand with couple of new products; with the most recent launch of Zandu Honey,
Emami is currently test marketing these new products and it is expected to launch these products by the end of FY17E. The
company has also launched new products in diabetes space, heart care and also related to stress. These products are under
test marketing in South India. The company foresees huge potential in this segment as there is no organized market and can
create market for these brands.
Pain relief is a segment of focus for Emami. The company owns home-grown brands like Mentho Plus Balm, Fast Relief and
category leader Zandu Balm. The pain relief category accounted for 21% of Emamis consolidated sales in FY15. Ayurvedic
positioning and widening rural presence made it possible for these brands to capture the largest market share in these categories.
The best seller of all times, Emamis Navratna cooling oil enjoys around 60% of the total market share. The rising temperature
across India is expected to give robust growth to its Navratna cooling oil, Navratna Cool Talc and to Boroplus prickly heat
powder. Historically, cooling oil has recorded 16% to 17% growth during moderate summer, so considering the current weather
condition, it is expected to grow at good pace.
Hair oils:
Emami plugged a gap in its portfolio through the introduction of Emami 7 Oils in One, a unique oil formula combining seven
Ayurvedic ingredients which are effective for strong and healthy hair growth targeting young girls and women.
Cool oil:
Emami catalysed the cool oil category in India through Navratna Oil, enjoying ~60% market share by volume and 65.5% share
by value. The company is an undisputed leader in the cooling oil category.
Exhibit 5: Key Brands & Presence
56.2%
77.7%
4390
4000
7520
6000
2000
0
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
Boroplus
Zandu
Fair &
Handsome
17.0%
Navratna
62.6%
3800
60.5%
7370
8000
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
70.0%
40%
20%
0%
20%
0%
26.0%
32.0%
17.0%
Navratna
Boroplus
Penetration (%)
Zandu
Fair &
Handsome
It is observed that Emami enjoys market leadership position across all the brands. The fastest growing category amongst all is
the Navratna Brand growing at 17% CAGR in last 5 years. However, Navratna has very low penetration across India. The major
market for Navratna cooling oil is North India. With low penetration of Navratna and being the market leader, it is expected to
grow at high pace.
3
Skin care:
Skin care accounted for around 30% of Emamis revenues and a higher share of profits. Emami is the leader in the antiseptic
cream category and in the mens fairness cream segment which it pioneered. Its Navratna Cool Talc (niche cooling positioning)
has substantially increased market share in the cool talc category.
International Business:
Exhibit 7: International Market Share (%)
100%
93.0% 91.0%
80%
60%
40%
47.0%
45.0%
20%
37.0%
30.0%
0%
Navratna
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Bangladesh
MENAP
35.0%
Domestic
83.0%
International
17.0%
SAARC &
SEA
44.0%
CISEE
12.0%
Others
9.0%
Source: Company, Karvy Research, MENAP: Middle East, North Africa & Pakistan
SAARC & SEA: South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation & South East Asia
CISEE: Commonwealth of Independent States & Eastern Europe
Summary:
Emami has been an interesting growth story in the Indian FMCG sector with a net profit CAGR of more than 20% in the last
five years. We expect that Emami is better positioned for faster growth; driven by (1) its entry into new categories, (2) scale up
of the Zandu Health Care Division (HCD) and (3) growth in international business. Emami looks well placed with strategy of
innovation and creation of strong portfolio of niche products, many of which are based on traditional ayurvedic formulations.
Most of these products have high gross margins - highest among domestic peers, along with the low penetration of most of its
categories, gives the opportunity for strong growth in the years ahead. We expect Emamis top line to grow at 17% CAGR over
FY17E-FY18E assisted along with new launches like She feminine hygiene, HE deodorants, etc. to contribute to additional
revenue growth.
FY15
Revenue
FY16E
FY17E
22172
25334
29473
21.8
14.3
16.3
EBITDA
5401
5784
6992
24.4
22.8
23.7
PAT (normalized)
4856
5240
6309
21.4
20.7
23.1
7.9
FY18E Comments
We expect that Emami is better positioned for faster growth;
driven by (1) its entry into new categories, (2) scale up of
the Zandu Health Care Division (HCD) and (3) growth in
international business, along with the low penetration of most
34504 of its categories, give the opportunity for strong growth in the
years ahead. We expect Emamis top line to grow at 17%
CAGR over FY17E-FY18E assisted along with new launches
like She feminine hygiene, HE deodorants, etc. to contribute
to additional revenue growth.
17.1
Most of the products of Emami have high gross margins highest among domestic peers, the recent acquisition of Kesh
8634
King, which has around 75% gross margin, is expected to
drive the EBITDA growth ahead of Sales growth.
25.0
27.8
20.4
22.7
(1098)
(500)
(844)
(887)
Net Debt
(3347)
(4852)
(6716)
(9321)
Net CFO
5340
4243
4247
3747
5484
4640
6761
5874
Consensus
Divergence (%)
FY16E
25334
26476
(4.3)
FY17E
29473
31691
(7.0)
FY16E
5240
4905
6.8
FY17E
6309
5979
5.5
FY16E
23.1
21.7
6.2
FY17E
27.8
26.8
3.8
Comments
EPS (Rs.)
16.3%
21.8% 14.3%
16.9%
25000
17.1%
30%
34504
29473
25334
22172
FY18E
FY17E
FY16E
18208
FY14
10%
0%
FY15
16991
5000
FY13
7.2%
15000
20%
Most of the products of Emami have high gross margins - highest among domestic peers, the recent acquisition of Kesh King,
which has around 75% gross margin, is expected to drive the EBITDA growth ahead of sales growth.
6000
26%
23.7%
22.8%
5023
5401
5784
6992
8634
24%
4494
4000
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
2000
0
28%
9000
6000
22%
3000
20%
28.2%
22.1%
25.9%
27.0%
26.0%
35%
30%
26.9%
9728
24.4%
12000
7935
26.4%
8000
30%
6599
25.0%
5976
27.6%
4714
10000
3753
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
25%
20%
20.7%
21.4%
6309
4856
4025
3000
18.5%
3147
6000
21.9%
5240
22.1%
22.4%
7743
9000
25%
23%
20%
18%
FY18E
FY17E
FY16E
FY15
FY14
15%
FY13
Emami has been an interesting growth story in the Indian FMCG sector
with a net profit CAGR of more than 20% in the last five years. With high
gross margin products in the portfolio and better product mix, Emami has
earned PAT margin more than 20% and it is expected to grow at ~22%
CAGR from FY17E to FY18E.
43.1%
34.1
27.8
37.1%
37.0% 36.7%
23.1
45.6%
21.4
10
50%
47.1% 44.9%
17.7
20
39.5%
20.8
30
42.4%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
Emamis EPS has registered CAGR of 9.1% from FY11 to FY15 and it is
expected to register double digit growth during FY17E and FY18E. Emami
has very strong balance sheet, earning an average RoE of 42.9% & RoCE
of 40.7% in last 4 years, it is expected to maintain its RoE and RoCE at
same level going forward.
RoE (%)
High
2
33
33
Quality of Earnings
Domestic Sales
Exports
33
33
Net Debt/Equity
Quality of Management
Depth of Management
Promoter
Corporate Governance
Source: Company, Karvy Research
33
33
33
33
33
60
50
40
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
P/E
Aug-15
Sep-15
Average
Oct-15
Nov-15
1SD
Dec-15
Jan-16
2SD
Feb-16
Mar-16
-1SD
Apr-16
-2SD
EV/EBITDA (x)
Mcap
(Rs. Mn)
P/E (x)
EPS (Rs.)
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Emami Ltd
1007
228500
41.5
35.7
31.7
46.8
40.4
36.2
21.4
23.1
27.8
Marico Ltd
254
32853
28.1
30.1
25.9
46.4
30.2
25.3
4.5
5.8
6.8
GCPL
1381
470209
26.9
33.3
28.3
39.1
41.6
34.4
26.6
33.2
39.6
GCPL
Marico Ltd
Sales
EBITDA
15.3
13.8
10.3
18.6
12.7
18.5
RoE (%)
EPS
14.0
22.0
22.2
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
3m
6m
44.9
38.3
37.9
(0.1)
(4.0)
36.1
35.1
34.1
16.9
32.2
22.1
24.1
24.1
7.9
2.2
22.3
29.6
FY15
22172
82422
57203
FY16E
25334
90408
61879
FY17E
29473
104638
69564
Peer Comparison
Exhibit 20: Revenue Growth (%)
25%
21.8%
20%
14.3%
15%
10%
16.3%
27.6%
24.4%
25%
22.8%
20%
7.2%
15%
5%
10%
0%
FY14
FY15
Emami
FY16E
GCPL
FY14
FY17E
FY15
Emami
Marico
FY16E
GCPL
50%
23.7%
47.1%
60%
44.9%
38.3%
40%
54.4%
45.0%
50%
37.9%
46.2%
40%
30%
30%
FY17E
Marico
38.7%
27.0%
20%
20%
FY14
Emami
FY15
FY16E
GCPL
FY17E
Marico
10%
FY11
FY12
Emami
FY13
GCPL
FY14
FY15
Marico
Key Risks
yyCompetition.
Financials
Exhibit 24: Income Statement
YE Mar (Rs. Mn)
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
Revenues
18208
22172
25334
29473
34504
Operating Expenses
13185
16772
19550
22480
25870
11.8
7.5
7.1
20.9
23.5
Growth (%)
EBITDA
Growth (%)
7.2
5023
21.8
5401
14.3
5784
6992
8634
343
EBIT
4714
5976
PBT
4571
5924
6547
7884
9676
Adjusted PAT
4025
4856
5240
6309
7743
Interest Expenses
Tax
Growth (%)
653
54
547
27.9
428
17.1
961
Other Income
383
16.3
476
918
1197
1371
1570
51
51
51
51
1070
20.7
6599
1309
7.9
7935
1577
20.4
9728
1935
22.7
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
2700
3541
5046
6910
9515
Inventories
1411
1267
1589
1867
2198
Investments
2892
Trade Receivables
Total Assets
Other Liabilities
793
1149
4078
1027
1206
4946
4776
1057
1716
5946
4917
1232
1963
6946
5359
1443
2298
7946
5797
13023
16763
20273
24278
29197
218
194
194
194
194
3146
338
3688
574
4451
605
5147
645
6002
694
Total Liabilities
3702
4457
5250
5985
6890
9094
12079
14796
18066
22080
Shareholders Equity
Total Networth
227
9321
13023
227
12306
16763
227
15023
20273
227
18293
24278
227
22307
29197
10
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
4660
5924
6547
7884
9676
Tax Paid
(766)
(956)
(1309)
(1577)
(1935)
Other Income
(586)
(1491)
(1093)
(1267)
(1466)
4325
5340
4247
5484
6761
Depreciation
Inc/dec in Net WC
Other non cash items
352
596
69
(654)
343
734
786
(1098)
383
(282)
2
(500)
428
15
2
(844)
476
8
2
(887)
(13052)
(18111)
(1000)
(1000)
(1000)
(1419)
(2337)
(361)
(531)
(375)
Dividend paid
(2211)
(2120)
(2523)
(3038)
(3729)
21
(35)
Others
Changes in Debt
Interest paid
12287
(751)
(51)
(3013)
(128)
16871
19
(52)
1139
(51)
1313
(51)
1512
(51)
(2154)
(2575)
(3090)
(3780)
814
1311
1863
2605
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
27.6
24.4
22.8
23.7
25.0
22.1
21.9
20.7
21.4
22.4
25.9
46.2
27.0
38.7
26.0
40.0
26.9
40.0
28.2
40.0
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.4)
(0.4)
RoCE (%)
45.6
43.1
37.0
36.7
37.1
RoE (%)
47.1
44.9
38.3
37.9
38.1
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
EPS (Rs.)
17.7
21.4
23.1
27.8
34.1
BV (Rs.)
41.1
54.2
66.2
80.6
98.3
P/BV (x)
10.6
18.5
14.1
DPS (Rs.)
PE (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Sales (x)
8.2
24.5
19.2
5.3
8.3
46.8
41.5
10.1
9.2
40.4
35.7
8.2
Source: Company, Karvy Research; *Represents multiples for FY14 & FY15 are based on historic market price
11.1
36.2
12.5
31.7
7.5
13.6
29.5
10.2
25.4
6.4
11
Sell
Hold
Absolute Returns
> 15%
5-15%
<5%
research@karvy.com
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Disclaimer
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certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his
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to change without notice. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections.
yy Associates of KSBL might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject
company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
yy Associates of KSBL might have received compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from
the date of this report for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months or for services
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last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.
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preparation of the research report and have no financial interest in the subject company mentioned in this report.
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yy It is confirmed that KSBL and Research Analysts, primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein of this report have not
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yy It is confirmed that Kunal Jagda, Research Analyst did not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.
yy KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
yy Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.
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