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This Week at the ISN

Our Weekly Content Roundup

2 - 6 May 2016

JUMP TO Editorial Plan | Security Watch | Blog | Video

// Security Watch

This week, our first Security Watch (SW) series focuses on the growing prominence of British Special Forces in "shadow
warfare"; the necessity of reinvigorating NATOs two Ds deterrence and dialogue; the joint transatlantic response
against Islamic terrorism; the importance of integrating nonviolent Salafist groups into political processes; and the growing
weakness of the so-called Islamic State. Then, in our second SW series, we look at counterterrorism with Chinese
characteristics; the legal-ethical implications of forcibly relocating the families of violent Palestinians; the EUs failure to
develop coherent policies on migration; the current political economy of Russia; and the impact of low oil prices on
Azerbaijan.

UK Special Forces: Accountability in Shadow War

2 May 2016

Paul Rogers is concerned about the growing size and activities of British Special Forces. Hes particularly worried about
how they are being deployed, their accountability and effectiveness, and the key role theyre playing in what he sees as a
dubious trend -- i.e., a general shift towards "shadow warfare." More

Counterterrorism or Repression? China Takes on Uighur Militants

2 May 2016

China is trying to link Uighur militants to foreign-led extremist groups such as al-Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State.
Well, Lauren Dickey isnt buying it. The alleged linkages are truly opaque and dont presage future Uighur attacks on
Chinese soil. What they do point to, however, is counterterrorism with Chinese characteristics. More

NATO Needs Deterrence and Dialogue

3 May 2016

Claudia Major and Jeffrey Rathke believe that NATO needs to reinvigorate and rebalance two pillars of its defense
strategy, as first defined by the 1967 Harmel Report deterrence and dialogue. Its this double-track approach, after all,
that offers the best hope of convincing Russia to abide by international norms More

The Families of Terrorists and Assigned Residence: The Legal Framework

3 May 2016

In order to curtail the shootings, stabbings and car rammings that Palestinians have carried out over the last 6 months,
Israeli authorities have thought about punishing the culprits families, either by deporting or forcibly relocating them. To
Pnina Sharvit and Keren Aviram, such measures would be blatantly illegal. More

Transatlantic Counter-Terrorism Cooperation

4 May 2016

Theres no question that US-EU counterterrorism cooperation has yielded more benefits than not, observe Marco Funk
and Florian Trauner. Nevertheless, disagreements still remain, including those focused on data processing and protection,
Washingtons Visa Waiver Program and its selective reliance on bilateral accords, etc. More

Deals without Borders: Europes Foreign Policy on Migration

4 May 2016

Angeliki Dimitriadi has no doubts. If Europe hopes to resolve its problem with irregular arrivals, it needs a migration
policy that doesnt focus on supplying financial aid packages to partner nations. Instead, it should pursue tailored, flexible
agreements that provide tangible benefits to one and all, including legalized migration. More

Promoting Salafi Political Participation

5 May 2016

Russian Analytical Digest No 182: Political Economy

5 May 2016

This issue of the RAD takes stock of Russia's political economy. More specifically, it 1) wonders whether Russias workers
will remain stoic in the face of economic hardship, and 2) investigates the crucial role of regional governments in
maintaining social and economic stability within the country, particularly in Tatarstan. More

A Caliphate under Strain: The Documentary Evidence

6 May 2016

Internal Islamic State (IS) documents confirm that the group is under increasing military, financial, and administrative strain.
But that doesnt mean that its going to collapse anytime soon, says Aymenn al-Tamimi. After all, those living under IS rule
are accustomed to noxious living conditions and arent willing to trigger a brutal crackdown if they rebel. More

Azerbaijans New Macroeconomic Reality: How to Adapt to Low Oil Prices

6 May 2016

Azerbaijan has been hard hit by the recent drop in global oil prices. In response, the government is trying to embrace a
compensatory economic model that will benefit from a robust non-oil sector. Good luck, says Ingilab Ahmadov. He doesnt
expect this plan to work either quickly or thoroughly and heres why. More

// Blog

Growing Stress on Jordan: Contingency Planning Memorandum Update

2 May 2016

As Robert Satloff and David Schenker see it, Jordans stability is in danger, particularly from the grievances that are
eroding the regime's tribal support. Economic privation, corruption and limited reforms remain significant sources of
popular discontent, but its the spillover from the Syrian conflict thats the real problem now. More

Review Globalization and Capitalist Geopolitics

3 May 2016

So, what does Adrian Budd think of Daniel Woodleys new text? He agrees that imperial state hegemony is giving way to
a new international economic order characterized by capitalist sovereignty. However, he also believes the dual logics of
state and corporate power will remain intact. More

Freeing Prevention From Conflict: Investing in Sustaining Peace

4 May 2016

As the UN General Assembly prepares for its high-level debate on peace and security later this month, prevention seems
to be on everyones minds. Given the past inability of the world body to prevent violent conflict, Youssef Mahmoud isnt
surprised. Heres his roadmap for making this task the raison dtre of the UN.
More

Think Again: In Adversity there is Opportunity for the International Criminal Court
5 May 2016

On 4 April, the International Criminal Court (ICC) terminated the case against Kenyan Deputy President William Ruto and
Nairobi radio executive Joshua arap Sang. According to Simon Allison, the decision was the ICCs most significant
setback in its nearly 14 years of existence, but out of failure can come opportunity. More

Nuclear Terrorism: Public Education as Effective Counter

6 May 2016

When it comes to nuclear terrorism, a hostile group could eventually deploy a dirty bomb. Since the objective of such a
device is to instill widespread psychological fear, Alvin Chew believes more effort should be made to educate people
about the actual effects of such a bomb. Heres what he means.
More

// Video

The Evolution of Jihadism

In this video, Nelly Lahoud explores 1) the political framework that jihadists operate in, 2) how its dividing them, and 3)
what the militants quarrels mean for ongoing counterterrorism efforts.
More

Deterrence in the 21st Century

In this video, Robert Kagan, Michael Green, Nathan Frier and Lisa Samp discuss the role of deterrence in the current
international security environment.
More

China's Increasing Involvement in Central Asia

In this video, Stratfor's Rodger Baker and Roman Muzalevsky discuss China's growing economic and security interests in
Central Asia. They specifically focus on 1) Russia's parallel interests in the region and how Beijing is trying to
accommodate them; 2) Chinese economic, developmental and military investments in the area, and other worthy topics.

More

// Multimedia Content
Here is a selection of this week's additions to the ISN Digital
Library:

Publications More
// Pakistani-Afghan Relations After Karzai More
// Indonesian Students in Egypt and Turkey
More
// United Nations Peacekeeping and the Use of Force More
// Stormy Months on the Aegean: The Refugee Deal and its Impact on Turkey-EU Relations More
// Crisis on the Korean Peninsula: Time for "Plan B"
More
// Saudi Energy Changes: The End of the Rentier State? More

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