1 of 18
Course:
Theory of Probability II
Term:
Spring 2015
Instructor: Gordan Zitkovic
Lecture 16
Abstract Nonsense
Brownian motion is just an example (albeit a particularly important one) of a whole zoo of interesting and useful continuous-time
stochastic processes. This chapter deals with the minimum amount of
the general theory of stochastic processes1 and related topics necessary for the rest of these notes. To ease the understanding, we keep
track of the amount of structure a certain notion depends on; e.g., if it
depends on the presence of a filtration or it can be defined without it.
2 of 18
3 of 18
FtX = ( Xs ; s t),
and is related to the situation where the available information at time
t is obtained by observing the values of the process (and nothing else)
X up to time t.
Problem 16.1 (*).
1. For a (possibly uncountable) family ( X ) A of random variables,
let G denote the -algebra generated by ( X ) A , i.e., G = ( X ,
A). Given a random variable Y G , show that there exists a countable subset C A, such that
Y ( X : C ).
Hint: Use the Monotone-Class Theorem.
4 of 18
an F-stopping time if
{ t} Ft , for all t 0.
an F-optional time if
{ < t} =
{ tn } Ft ,
n N
0,
= 1,
( ) = inf{t 0 : Xt ( ) > 0} =
,
+, = 1
Last Updated: March 4, 2015
5 of 18
6 of 18
{A t} = { Xt A}
{ Xq A n } ,
nN qQ+ [0,t)
{A < t} =
{ Xq A },
qQ[0,t)
7 of 18
Rt
0
Xu du}t[0,)
8 of 18
and let the -algebra F be generated by all Ia,b , 0 < a b < . The
filtration F is the natural filtration of the coordinate process { Ht }t[0,T ] ,
where Ht ( ) = (t), i.e., Ft = ( Hs , s t). Hence, H is trivially
adapted. To show that it is measurable it suffices to observe that for
each c R, we have
where the union is taken over all pairs 0 < p q < of rational
numbers.
To show that H is not progressive, it will be enough (see Problem
16.3) to show that the process { Xt }t[0,T ] , defined by
Xt =
Z t
0
Hu du, t 0,
Xtn ( )
X T ( ),
t T,
bnT c1
k =0
X k +1 ( ) 1
n
1
[ nk , k+
n )
( t ), t < T
9 of 18
2. F F , if ,
3. F = nN Fn if 1 2 , = limn n , and the filtration
{Ft }t[0,) is right-continuous.
4. If there exists a countable set Q = {qk : k N} [0, ) such that
( ) Q, for all k N, then
F = { A
t 0
10 of 18
Rt
Proof. We consider the process Y defined by Yt ( ) = 0 Xu ( ) du. By
Problem 16.3, the process Y is continuous and progressively measurable, and, therefore, so are the processes { X (n) }nN , defined by
(n)
Xt = n Yt Yt1/n , for t 0,
where we use the convention that Ys = 0, for s 0. It remains to use
the Lebesgue Differentiation Theorem for Lipschitz functions.
Continuous-time martingales
The definition of (super-, sub-) martingales in continuous time is the
formally the same as the corresponding definition in discrete time:
Definition 16.20 (Continuous time (sub,super) martingales). Given a
filtration {Ft }t[0,) , a stochastic process { Xt }t[0,) is said to be an
{Ft }t[0,) -supermartingale if
1. Xt Ft , for all t 0
2. Xt L1 , for all t [0, ), and
3. E[ Xt |Fs ] Xs , a.s., whenever s t.
A process { Xt }t[0,) is called a submartingale if { Xt }t[0,) is a
supermartingale. A martingale is a process which is both a supermartingale and a submartingale at the same time, i.e., for which the
equality holds in 3., above.
Last Updated: March 4, 2015
11 of 18
Problem 16.5 (Brownian motion is a martingale). Show that the Brownian motion is a martingale with respect to its natural filtration FB , as
B.
well as with respect to its right-continuous augmentation F+
Remark 16.21. An example of a continuous-time martingale that is not
continuous is the compensated Poisson process, i.e., the process Nt
t, t 0, where Nt is a Poisson process with parameter > 0 (see
Problem 16.9). It is useful to keep Nt t in mind as a source of
counterexamples.
The theory of continuous-time martingales (submartingales, supermartingales) largely parallels the discrete-time theory. There are two
major tricks that help us transfer discrete-time results to the continuous time:
1. Approximation: a stopping time can be approximated from above
by a sequence of stopping times {n }nN each of which takes values in a countable set.
2. Use of continuity properties of the paths: typically, the right-continuity
of the trajectories will imply that Xn X , and an apropriate limit
theorem is then used.
Instead of giving detailed proofs of all the continuous-time counterparts of the optional sampling theorems, martingale-inequalities, etc.,
we only state most of our results. We do give a detailed proof of our
first theorem, though, and, before we do that, here is some notation
and a useful concept:
1. for t 0, St denotes the set of all stopping times such that ( )
t, for all ,
2. Sb = t0 St is the set of all bounded stopping times, and
3. S denotes the set of all stopping times.
Definition 16.22 (Classes (DL) and (D)).
1. A measurable process { Xt }t[0,) is said to be of class (DL) if the
family
12 of 18
(16.1)
Proof. Let St be the set of all St such that takes only finitely
f
k =1
n
k =1
E [ M 1 A 1 { = t k } ] = E [ Mt k 1 A 1 { = t k } ]
(16.2)
k =1
{ M : S t } { M :
f
St }
L1
L1
where () denotes the closure in L1 . Using the fact that the L1 closure of a uniformly integrable set is uniformly integrable (why?),
we conclude that { Mt }t[0,) is of class (DL). To show (16.1), we note
that uniform integrability (via the backward martingale convergence
theorem - see Corollary 12.17) implies that
M = lim Mn = lim E[ Mt |Fn ],
n
where all the limits are in L1 . Taking the conditional expectation with
respect to F yields that
M = E[ M |F ] = E[lim E[ Mt |Fn ]|F ]
n
13 of 18
(16.3)
14 of 18
2. X E[ X |F ], for all S .
Corollary 16.28 (Optional sampling for nonnegative supermartingales).
Let { Mt }t[0,) be a nonnegative right-continuous supermartingale. Then
E[ X |F ] X for all stopping times , , with .
In complete analogy with discrete time (again), the (sub)martingale
property stays stable under stopping:
Proposition 16.29 (Stability under stopping). Let { Mt }t[0,) be a rightcontinuous martingale (submartingale), and let be a stopping time. Then
the stopped process { Mt }t[0,) is also a right-continuous martingale (submartingale).
Most of the discrete-time results about martingales transfer to the
continuous-time setting, provided that right-continuity of the paths is
assumed. Such a condition is not as restrictive as it may seem at first
glance, thanks to the following result. It is important to note, though,
that it relies heavily on our standing assumption of right continuity
for the filtration F. It also needs a bit of completeness; more precisely,
we assume that each probability-zero set in F belongs already to F0 .
These two assumption as so important that they even have a name:
Definition 16.30 (Usual conditions). A filtration is said to satisfy the
usual conditions if it is right continuous and complete in the sense
that A F0 , as soon as A F and P[ A] = 0.
Theorem 16.31 (Regularization of submartingales). Under usual conditions, a submartingale { Xt }t[0,) has a RCLL modification if and only if the
mapping t 7 E[ Xt ] is right continuous. In particular, each martingale has a
RCLL modification.
Various submartingale inequalities can also be extended to the case
of continuous time. In order not to run into measurability problems,
we associate the maximal process
Xt = sup{ Xq : q = t or q is a rational in [0, t)},
with a process X. Note that when X is RCLL or LCRL, Xt = sups[0,t] | Xs |,
a.s.
Theorem 16.32 (Doobs and Maximal Inequalities). Let { Xt }t[0,) be a
15 of 18
1
Mp
p
p 1
|| X ||L p
Additional Problems
Problem 16.6 (Predictable and optional processes). A stochastic process { Xt }t[0,) is said to be
optional, if it is measurable with respect to the -algebra O ,
where O is the smallest -algebra on [0, ) with respect to
which all RCLL and adapted adapted processes are measurable.
predictable, if it is measurable with respect to the -algebra P ,
where P is the smallest -algebra on [0, ) with respect to
which all LCRL adapted processes are measurable.
Show that
1. The predictable -algebra coincides with the -algebra generated
by all continuous and piecewise linear adapted processes.
2. Show that P O Prog B([0, )) F .
Problem 16.7 (The total-variation process). For each process { Xt }t[0,)
of finite variation, we define its total-variation process {| X |t }t[0,) as
the process whose value at t is the total variation on [0, t] of the path
of { Xt }t[0,) .
16 of 18
N : S N { },
where (, F , P) is a probability space, is called a Poisson Point Process (PPP) with mean measure if
the mapping N ( B) (more precisely, the mapping 7 N (, B))
is F -measurable (a random variable) for each B S and has the
Poisson distribution3 with parameter ( B) (denoted by P(( B))),
whenever ( B) < , and
for each , the mapping B 7 N (, B) is an N {}valued measure, and
N (, B) =
k =1
1{ Xk ( ) B} ,
17 of 18
18 of 18
|| g||L p
p
p1 || f ||L p ,
n
F c (t, x ),
(c)n
where, by convention, (c
G = G. Show that P(n) (t, x ) = F (n,0) (t, x )
)0
is a polynomial in t and x for each n N0 , and write down expressions for P(n) (t, x ), for n = 0, 1, 2, 3.
(n)
(n)
variable M
t0 Mt . Hint: For x > 1, set x = inf{t 0 : Mt x } =
x
inf{t 0 : Mt x }, and note that M
{0, x }, a.s.
Problem 16.15 (Convergence of paths of RCLL martingales). Consider a sequence { Mtn }t[0,T ] , n N, of martingales with continuous
paths (defined on the same filtered probability space). Suppose that
{ Mt }t[0,T ] is an RCLL martingale such that MTn MT in L1 , as
n . Show that M has continuous paths, a.s.