Geography

Demography: the scientific study of human populations primarily in respect of their

size, structure and development. It is concerned not only with statistics of birth disease,
death, marriage, life expectancy, migration, the division of population into groups on the
basis of sex, age, marital status and the changes in those structures, but also with all
aspects of population studies, including relationships with social and economic factors.1
Population Geography: focuses on the number, composition and distribution of human
beings in relation of earth space (resource base, type of economic development, level of
living, food supply, conditions of health and well-being)
Population: the total number of people, of animals or of plants living in an area at a
particular time. The population is dynamic as the total number constantly changes in
time, in space and at micro-mesco and macro scales.
Age-sex structure: The composition of a population as determined by the number or
proportion of males and females in each age category. The age-sex structure of a
population is the cumulative result of past trends in fertility, mortality, and migration.
Information on age-sex composition is essential for the description and analysis of many
other types of demographic data.
Baby boom: A dramatic increase in fertility rates and in the absolute number of births. In
the United States this occured during the period following World War II (1946-1964).
Birth rate (or crude birth rate): The number of live births per 1,000 population in a
given year. Not to be confused with the growth rate.
Death rate (or crude death rate): The number of deaths per 1,000 population in a given
year.
Fertility rate: represents the number of live births per 1000 of women aged 15 to 49
years in a given year (mid-year)
FR= number of births

X 1000

#of women aged 15-49 yrs.

Growth rate: The number of persons added to (or subtracted from) a population in a year
due to natural increase and net migration; expressed as a percentage of the population at
the beginning of the time period.

Audrey Clark The Penguin Dictionary of Geography (The Penguin Books Ltd.,1990)p.106

Infant mortality rate: the average number of deaths of infants under 1 year of age per
1000 live birth. High infant mortality is often a sign of limited medical service and
malnutrition.
Infant mortality rate: # of death to infants under age 1 x 1000
Total live birth
Less developed countries: Less developed countries include all countries in Africa, Asia
(excluding Japan), and Latin America and the Caribbean, and the regions of Melanesia,
Micronesia, and Polynesia.
Life expectancy: Is an estimate of the average number of additional years a person of a
given age could expect to live if current mortality trends were to continue for the rest of
that person's life. Most commonly cited as life expectancy at birth.
Life expectancy is a hypothetical measure and a good indicator of current health
conditions in a country. Life expectancies are known to differ according to factors such as
socioeconomic status, gender and ethnicity.
Life expectancy: the average number of years a person is expected to live.
Factors affecting life expectancy
1) diet and nutrition
2) availability and cost of medical care
3) health and sanitation level
4) availability of appropriate recreational facilities
5) availability of jobs
6) dependency ratio
7) stress levels
8) levels of wages/salaries
More developed countries: More developed countries include all countries in Europe,
North America, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.
Mortality: Deaths as a component of population change.
Net migration: The net effect of immigration and emigration on an area's population in a
given time period, expressed as an increase or decrease.
Population pyramid: A bar chart, arranged vertically, that shows the distribution of a
population by age and sex. By convention, the younger ages are at the bottom, with males
on the left and females on the right.
Rate of natural increase: The rate at which a population is increasing (or decreasing) in
a given year due to a surplus (or deficit) of births over deaths, expressed as a percentage
of the base population.

Zero population growth: A population in equilibrium, with a growth rate of zero,

achieved when births plus immigration equal deaths plus emigration. Zero growth is not
to be confused with replacement level fertility.
Source:
http://www.prb.org/Educators/TeachersGuides/HumanPopulation/Change.aspx?
p=1
Child dependency ratio: Number of children aged 0-14 relative to the total number of
people aged 15-64 years.
Aged dependency ratio: Number of people aged 65 years and older relative to the total
number of people aged 15-64 years.
Total dependency ratio: Number of children aged 0-14 and people aged 65 years and
older relative to the total number of people aged 15-64 years.
Rates: simple record showing the frequency of occurrence of an event during a given
time frame for a designated population- for eg. the marriage rate as the number of
marriages performed per 1000 population in the area last year.
Cohort: in demography, a group of individuals who experience a significant event during
the same period of time, who thus have a common statistical characteristic, eg. belonging
to the same age group, entering hospitals or college at the same time.
Optimum Population: the number of individuals that can be accommodated in an area
to the maximum advantage of each individual or the number of human inhabitants
considered to be the most favourable for the full use of all the resources available in the
area, so that the standerd of living achieved is adequate or as high as possible.
Under populated: too few people in relation to resources, a term applied to the
population in an area where the available resources are not used so fully as they might be
because very few people live there.
Causes for under-population
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)

inadequate social and health facilities- education, water, roads, electricity

war
natural causes- famine, poor soil, mountains, deserts, lack of resource
distance from ports and trading routes
difficulty of communication with the outside world.

Over population: too many people. Usually apply to the population in an area where the
available resources are inadequate for the support of the great number of people living
there, ie. when the number exceeds that of the optimum population, with the result that
the standerd of living declines and economic and social aspirations cannot be realised.

Causes of over-population
1) marked fall in death rate due to the improvements in sanitation and medical
facilities
2) lack of physical resources e.g land, minerals
3) slow development of resources
4) the population is growing more rapidly than the level of productivity.
5) Lack of effective population education, especially family planning
6) Lack of technology in the productive process.
Problems of over-population
1) Can affect per capita income by dividing the National Income further and further
among more and more people.
2) While there is a distinct advantage in having a youthful population (theoretically,
it has vigour and it exerts a built-in pressure for needed reforms), there is always
the risk to be avoided that many children may go unschooled and underfed and
later become unemployed. A young population carries a great burden of
dependency and a higher ratio of consumer to producers.
3) Low standard of living and a stagnant way of life.
4) There is a high percentage of unemployment and underemployment.
5) A tendency for sustained inflation.
6) Human pollution is rampant
7) Crime, unrest and drug addition play further havoc on the economy.
8) Poor housing and the growth of slums
9) There are always the possibilities of balance of payments problem
10) Poverty and diseases.
Some solutions to over population
1) greater use of technology especially in agriculture to ensure greater productivity
2) implement a more equitable distribution of income to allow the poor man to
benefit from the growth of the economy
3) the richer nations should make a greater contribution by the transfer of technology
4) introduce family planning incentives through education.
5) In order to industrialized, developing countries must increase their investment in
industry and must develop a higher quality labour force
6) More emphasis on education to develop skills and modern technology.

Demographic Transition model

It provides a general description of the stages of population change, experienced by a
country as it progresses from a largely rural and agricultural country to a largely urban
and industrialized country.
As a country progresses through these stages, it will experience the transition from high
birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. In most develop countries, this
transition began in the 18th century and developing countries began this transition much
later. Many developing countries are still at stage 2 and stage 3.
The demographic transition model has 4 stages:
1) Stage 1: at this stage both birth and death rates are high and fluctuating. These
usually result in a slow and small population growth. The death rate is very high
especially among children and occasionally epidemics would dramatically
increase the death rates for a few years.
2) Stage 2: At this stage the birth rates remain high but the death rates decline
sharply. This usually results in rapid population growth. Countries experiencing
this stage are mainly agricultural countries with simple and few industries.
3) Stage 3: At this stage the gap between the birth and death rates narrows. This is
brought about largely by rapidly declining birth rates. Death rates continue to fall
but at a much slower rate. There is population growth but the rate of growth is
much slower. Countries that are at this stage are rapidly industrializing.
4) Stage 4: At this stage both the death and birth rate decline futher and remain very
low. Population growth is very small but steady. Countries at this stage usually
have economies that have high levels of industrialization with great emphasis on
services orienting businesses.
Agriculture contributes only a small portion to the economics development of the
country. Sometimes even as birth and death rates decline, death rates decline at a
faster rate. In such a case, the country may then experience a negative growth.
As a country go through each stage of the population transition model, its population
structure changes.

Population census
Population census: an official count of the population of a country undertaken by the
government. It takes account of the household composition, ages, birth place,
occupation, work place, education, housing arrangement amenities etc.
In Guyana census records individuals according to their normal place of residence.
This process is done every 10 year.
Census information is important and is used to identify the needs of an area. For e.g.
health, education, transport and housing.
Census is either inadequate or non-existent. There are several important reasons for
this:
1) Poor and inadequately financed methods of data collection. The LDCs (Less
Developed Countries) are often short of money for necessities, such as food and
have little to spare for the census. Enumerators are usually essential to collect the
data as levels of literacy are low, limiting the number of people who would
accurately complete their own census form. Hence training of enumerates is vital
for the census, but in itself is expensive.
2) Population mobility is frequently a problem. In many tropical countries such as
Nigeria, many people are nomadic hence easily omitted from the count, or
included repeatedly. Movements into and within the cities of LDCs can be
especially high. It is difficult to ensure, therefore, that everybody is included in
the count. Population patterns also change rapidly with new shanty town forming.
3) Owing to patterns of employment, men who migrate to the cities on nearby
countries for work may have several residences. Should they be included in, say
the city count where they work or are they really rural residents where their
families remain?
4) The level of homelessness in some cities such as Calcutta, India, is so high that it
is difficult to ensure that all street dwellers are included. Knowledge about this
group of people, because of lack of shelters, work or whatever, is clearly of
importance when planning in LDCs.
5) People are often suspicious of questions asked and have no idea of how accurate
information may directly help them. False statements especially about age and
occupation are common.
6) Questions many not be clearly defined. For e.g.
- What is your mothers tongue? (language)
- How many are in your household?
- How many rooms are in your house?

Population data are used to determine social policy, to evaluate the availability of and
demand for land, educational institutions, housing, employment, finance and health
care.
The characteristics of a country:
1) size
2) density
3) growth rate
4) sex ratio
5) religion
6) ethnicity
7) age distribution
8) occupation
9) density ratio

Population density and population distribution.

Population density: may be described as the number of persons occupying (or
concentrating in) a particular unit of area. This area is defined by political or census
boundaries.
The formula used to calculate population density is:
Density = total pop. of the area / area (sq.km.)
Population distribution: refers to the geographic locations of the people in the total
population.

The factors influencing population distribution at a local, regional and global scale.
Relief: steep gradient, swamps and rugged terrain discourage settlement development, as
it is difficult and expensive to construct infrastructures in these locations. A very small
population will settle in such areas. Swamps are essential to the ecological environment;
its removal or disturbance to this landscape may affect the settlement (eg. by flooding)
and will distroy the eco-system. However, a flat or gentle terrain encourages settlement
development, agriculture and high population density. It is easier and less expensive to
construct infrastructure on flat relief.
Altitude: there are few permanent settlements above 5000m because the low
temperatures and thinner atmosphere restrict comfortable habitation. Consequently, 80%
of worlds population lives below 5000m- with 56% below sea level and 200m.

The number of people generally decrease with height above sea level; the greater the
height, the more difficult it is to exploit the environment. Of the total world population,
56% live below 200metres occupying only 25% of the land.
In very high mountains like the Andes, there is less oxygen in the air but people can
adopted to this by developing larger lungs. More important are the physical difficulties
that come with altitude.
In very high mountains slopes are steeper, soils thinner and the land is difficult to farm.
Temperatures are lower, precipitation is higher and winds are stronger.
In the tropics, height can be positive and attractive. Lower temperatures can be more
comfortable to grow a greater variety of crops.
Climate and weather: extremes of cold and aridity, such as found in hot and cold
deserts, deter settlements.
Unfavourable climates are the main reason behind the worlds empty areas. Half of the
world is almost uninhabitable because of climatic difficulties. Vast areas are too dry eg.
The Sahara desert.
The whole continent of Antarctica and the extensive Arctic zones are cold for much
permanent habitation.
Heat and moisture are less of a problem for peoples comfort and making a living.
Soil: thin, infertile, or badly drained soils deter agriculture and so settlement. Fertile
deltaic and alluvial soils, by contrast, encourage agriculture.

Good quality soil eg. Alluvium attracts people. This causes a population to be densely
populated and these areas are used for cultivation.
On the other hand, poor soils cannot produce enough food to supply a dense population,
so such areas usually have a sparse population.
Natural hazards: persons would avoid areas experiencing natural hazards- but this is not
always the case. For example highly fertile volcanic areas of Java, Indonesia, and the
flood plains of Bangladesh support rural population.
Economic structure: levels of industrialisation, urbanisation, and technology are
relevant in that generally the more developed and sophisticated the economy, the more
people can be support. Urban industrial areas by definition are densely populated.

Culture, tradition, religion and politics: arguably peripheral influences, yet not without
significance in specific cases.
Closeness to the cost: coastal areas are more densely populated than interior areas.
People are attracted to the coast by:
- flat land for building and for agriculture
- water supply from rivers across the coastal plain
- access to the sea for transport
- fishing resources
Rivers: rivers usually attract people because they provide water supplies, irrigation
support and fish. In deserts rivers are particularly attractive.
Natural vegetation: the only vegetation type which repels human settlement is the
rainforest. This forest is dense and it creates a difficult environment to exploit. Once the
forest is removed, the land degrades so quickly that many of its resources are wasted.
Resources: These attract people to settle and exploit them so long as they have the
technology necessary. A material cannot be classified as a resource if people in that area
have not yet learnt how to use it effectively.
Many Caribbean settlements have grown recently because of the attraction of jobs in
tourism. Much of the landscape in the region is a resource for tourism and the economic
circumstances are in place for tourism to develop.

Methods of depicting population distribution and density.

Population Density: the number of persons occupying or concentrating in a particular
unit of area. The area is defined by political or census boundaries.
Population density = total population of the area
Area (sq km)
In the Caribbean population density tend to be higher in the island than the main land
territories.
Population density is usually shown cartographically by means of choropleth maps.
Choropleth map: the population data per unit is grouped. Each group is given a shade or
colour to show density value. The highest value has the strongest or darkest shading.
Colour should be selected from the same spectrum. The darkest colour would show the
highest value.
Advantages of the choropleth map

1) they gave a good visual impact

2) they identify patterns easily
3) they help compare values
Disadvantages of the choropleth map
1) the shading gives a very generalised picture
2) the local values are unclear within large areas.
Population density is usually shown cartographically by means of choropleth maps.
These use a series of shadings to show density values. The effect however is of a
uniformity, which suddenly changes at a political boundary. Indeed, the fundamental
weakness of all density maps is that population totals are related to units of the area
within which, in real life, there will not be a uniform distribution of population.
Information therefore is obscured by the average.
To use smaller units of areas would be more accurate, but it is difficult to obtain data.
Also, the broken lines between areas may not be as clear cut as the map implies.And what
divisions should be used? Physical regions, administrative units, grid squares? Further
misunderstanding can arise if the division of density values for the key is carelessly done.
Population distribution: refers to the geographic location of the people in a population.
This information is important as it indicate the needs of the geographic location.
Population distribution tends to be mapped using dots and or proportional circles.
The dot map allows pin-pointing of these location of population as precisely as possible.
For eg. the problem of showing urban population concentration in an area may be to
some extent be solved by dot maps- which are most common method of mapping
population distribution.
The choice of dot value is critical. Good practice is to choose one which will have at least
a few in the lowest category and not too many in the highest.
The size of the dot should be small enough to allow for as much flexibility as possible,
whilst remaining clear enough so as not to be confuse with a speck on the paper. Dots that
are too big tend to overlap, which is undesirable. Hence problems include the decision of
how many people per dot and the physical size of the dot.
But where should the dot be placed? Their precise location will be a difficult choice, not
least because they suggest so much. Also, it is often impossible when using dots with a
low value (often needed for sparse rural areas) to effectively show large towns. This is
when a choice of, say, two dot sizes or proportional circle may be appropriate.
If dots are spread evenly over an area a uniformity that may be misleading is suggested.
This then suddenly changes at an administrative boundary- a similar problem to the
density map.

Population distribution in Guyana

Guyana is the largest of the Caribbean territories (214,969 sq km), but its density is only
4 persons per sq. km. The [population is unevenly distributed with 90% concentrated on
the narrow coastal belt. 64% of the population is rural.
Factors which cause low population distribution in Guyanas interior.
1) High mountains towards the south and west of Guyana (eg. Pakaraima and
Kanuku Mts) including numerous waterfalls and rapids make the establishment of
communication lines difficult in the interior.
2) Dense equatorial forest accounts for 181,000sq km of interior. The forest is found
on poor soil which makes agriculture impossible. Mostly Amerindians (32,000
people) live in the area. They are engaged primarily in fishing and hunting and
small scale agriculture.
3) The Rupununi Savannah is a large stretch of grass land given to ranching. It is
remote from the coast making the population density low.
4) The interior population is low and comprises of small mining communities.
Factors which cause a dense population on Guyanas coastal belt.
1) Historically, the first new settlements were attracted further from the coast, but
with low yields from the interior soil, settlements shifted towards the coast. The
low lying coast which is under sea level had led to the construction of elaborate
dams and dykes in order to control sea water.
2) The area makes 4% of the total land area. It is a zone of intense cultivation of
sugar cane and rice. Sugar can accounts for 31% of labour force and about 60,000
peasant farmers are engaged in the rice cultivation.
3) In the sandy lowlands, bauxite mining communities are found in Linden on the
Demerara River, kwakwani on the Berbice and at Ituni and Everton.
4) Georgetown is the leading port and capital city and with its suburbs accounts for
some 2000,000 people. It is the chief commercial, industrial and administrative
centre. Other towns are New Amsterdam (20,000) and Berbice (7,000), the
gateway to Guyanas interior and gold, diamond and lumbering areas.
5) A large network of roads runs along the coast with branch roads leading to towns
and villages.
Population Structure: Birth rate, death rate and natural increase.
A) Crude Birth Rate: referred to the annual number of live births per 1000
population. It is crude because it relates births to total population without regard to
the age or sex composition of the population. A country with a population of 2 million
and 40,000 births a year would have a crude birth rate of 20 per 1000.

Formula: Crude birth rate = number of life birth x 1000

Mid year population
40,000 x 1,000 = 40,000 = 40 = 20 births per 1000 persons
2,000,000
2,000
2
Birth rate of less than 20 per 1,000 is reckoned low and is characteristic of
industrialized, urbanised countries (Russia, Ango America, Australia, New Zealand).
High birth rate is characteristic of agricultural and rural areas with a high proportion
of young female. These countries are commonly known as third world countries such
as those found in Africa, West and South Asia and Latin Amarica.
B) Crude Death Rate: is also known as mortality rate. This is the number of deaths
in one year per 1000 population. This is usually broken down into age group.
Formula: Crude death rate = Number of deaths x 1,000
Mid year population
Factors which lower the death rate are:
-development / improvement in medical technology
-improvement in infrastructural facilities such as water supply and sewage disposal
-higher standerd of nutrition / diet
-improved housing conditions
-improved personal hygiene
C) Natural Increase: may be defined as the surplus of births over deaths in a given
country for a particular year. This is the difference between birth and death rates.
Here birth rate exceeds death rate.
Formula: Natural increase (NI) = birth rate in a given year death rate in a given
year
Natural increase: this is the difference between birth and death rates. Here birth rate
exceeds death rate.
Natural increase = birth rate- death rate
10
Note: divide by 10 to express in %.
Birth rate =10.7 per 1,000 per yr.
Death rate = 10.1 per 1,000 per yr.
Natural increase = 10.7 -10.1 = 0.6 =0.06% per yr.
10
10

D) Natural decrease: is the deficit of births over deaths in a given country for a
particular year. The same formula for NI is used. A negative value indicates a deficit
of births over deaths.
Natural Decrease = Death rate Birth rate
10
Birth rate =9.0 per 1,000 per yr.
Death rate = 10.6 per 1,000 per yr.
Natural decrease = 10.6 9.0
10

= 1.6 = 0.16% per yr

10

Population pyramids
Construction and interpretation of population pyramids.
Population composition: this shows the characteristics of the people in the
population such as gender, age, ethnicity, religion, occupation and sex. These data
may be shown statistically in such forms as line graphs, tables, bar charts and
population pyramids.
Population pyramid: A bar graph in the form of a pyramid drawn to express the age
and sex composition of a human population. The age groups are shown on vertical
scale, commonly graduated into 5 year intervals. The youngest at the base, and the
number or percentage of males and females within each of the age groups on the
horizontal scale; the males lying traditionally to the left, females to the right of the
line drawn perpendicular to the horizonal axis, and expressing zero (percentages
increasing to the left for males, to the right for females).
When constructing the population pyramid, the shape is more and less like a pyramid
but is rarely symmetrical. If the pyramid has a wide base and tapers to a pointed top,
it is termed expansive (denoting an expanding population, with many children and a
declining death rate); if its shape resembles a tall dome rather than a pyrimid, it is
termed stationary (denoting a stable, slowly growing population, with a decline in
mortality and a low birth rate); if the shape is broadly oval with a pointed top, the
base cutting the oval below its widest part, it is said to be constrictive (denoting a
declining population, with a birth rate lower than the death rate).
In addition to birth and death rates, migration and the tendency of females to out live
males affect the shape of population pyramids.

Population pyramids
A) Expansive population pyramids: this type of pyramid describes a
population that has a large percentage of children. Such a population is
described as a young popuation. It is characteristic of developing countries
where birth rates are high. The pyramid is so shaped that there is a rapid
fall in each upward age group due to high death rate. There is a short life
expectancy.
B) Stationary population pyramids: This characterises highly developed
countries which have rapidly declining fertility levels. Birth rates are low
and so are death rates. Because of a high standard of living and advanced
medical technology, more people live to old age.
C) Constriction population pyramids: This is characteristic of developed
countries. It has an even narrower base than that of the stationary pyramid.
Each age range is more or less equal in size, except for the older age
ranges which gradually become smaller. This type results from long
periods of low fertility levels. This, in conjunction with imposed medical
technology, will create a larger proportion of older persons in the
population. It is some times describe as an aging population.

POPULATION PYRAMIDS
There are many different ways to graphically present population data. However, the use
of a population pyramid is considered the best way to graphically illustrate the age and
sex distribution of a given population. A population pyramid, using a paired bar charttype graphic, shows the numbers or percentages of males and females in each age group.
This type of graphic provides a very clear picture of a population's age-sex composition.
It can also be used for displaying future trends in a population.
The fertility rate of a population is the single most important influence on the shape of a
population pyramid. The more children per parent, the broader will be the base of the
pyramid. The median age of the population will also be younger. Mortality will also have
an influence on the shape; however, it will be far less important an influence than fertility
but also somewhat more complex. One would assume that lower mortality rates in a
population would result in an older age distribution. However, just the opposite is true -a population with lower mortality rates will display a slightly younger age distribution.
This is due to the fact that any -disparities in the mortality rates of a population are more
likely a result of variations within the younger age groups (usually infants and children).
There are generally three types of population pyramids created from age-sex
distributions--expansive, constrictive and stationary. Examples of these three types of
population pyramids appear at the end of this report. Definitions of the three types
follow:

1. EXPANSIVE population pyramids show larger numbers or percentages of the

population in the younger age groups, usually with each age group smaller in size
or proportion than the one born before it. These types of pyramids are usually
found in populations with very large fertility rates and lower than average life
expectancies. The age-sex distributions of Latin American and many Third World
countries would probably display expansive population pyramids.
2. CONSTRICTIVE population pyramids display lower numbers or percentages of
younger people. The age-sex distributions of the United States and Pennsylvania
fall into this type of pyramid.
3. STATIONARY or near-stationary population pyramids display somewhat equal
numbers or percentages for almost all age groups. Of course, smaller figures are
still to be expected at the oldest age groups. The age-sex distributions of some
European countries, especially Scandinavian ones, will tend to fall into this
category.
Population projections (or percentages of population growth or decline over periods of
time) can also be plotted and displayed on a pyramid along with the current or historical
population figures, thus allowing for easy comparison of future or-historical trends. This
type of pyramid is especially dramatic when large, consistent increases or decreases
occur. On the next page is an example of this type of population age pyramid. The agesex distribution of the Hispanic population in the United States according to 1970 census
figures are shown along with the increase for each age-sex population segment according
to 1990 census figures. The increases are quite dramatic. Also, one should note that the
1970 Hispanic population pyramid is an expansive type whereas the 1990 pyramid is
more of a constrictive type.
Population pyramids are quite handy tools when working with age-sex distributions and
should be used as often as possible. They provide very effective graphic presentations.
Probably their greatest asset is that they are so easily understandable to almost everyone,
regardless of statistical skills.
TYPES of POPULATION PYRAMIDS

Source: http://www.health.state.pa.us/hpa/stats/techassist/pyramids.htm

Three Patterns of Population Change

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision.

The country pyramids shown on the chart "Three patterns of population change" also
represent different stages of population growth going on today. The first pyramid,
representing the population of the Democratic Republic of Congo, with its wide base and
narrow top, is typical of a young population. This shape is the result of high birth rates
that feed more and more people into the lowest bars and in turn shrink the relative

proportion at the oldest ages. As the death rate declines, more people survive to the
reproductive ages and beyond. The births they have further widen the base of the
pyramid. This shape is common in many less developed countries that have experienced
improvements in life expectancy but continue to have high birth rates. It reflects both a
history of rapid population growth and the potential for future rapid growth.
The second age-sex pyramid is typical of a slowly growing population. The United States
is an example of a country in slow growth. The United States has had declining fertility
and mortality rates for most of this century. With lower fertility, fewer people have
entered the lowest bars of the pyramid, and as life expectancy has increased, a greater
percentage of the "births" have survived until old age. As a result, the population has been
aging, meaning that the proportion of older persons in the population has been growing.
This trend was interrupted by the postwar baby boom, 19461964, when birth rates
climbed again. (The bulge of the baby-boom generation can be seen in the pyramid for
ages 3554 in 2000.) After 1964, birth rates continued their downward trend until the late
1970s. As the last members of the baby boom approached their childbearing years during
the 1980s, the number of births rose again, peaking in 1990. These children, the youngest
generation, are represented by the slightly widening base of the pyramid. Even though the
number of births per woman is lower than ever before, the population continues to grow
because of the children and grandchildren of the huge baby-boom generation.

Age-Sex

Structures

in

Transition

A few countries have reached zero population growth or are experiencing negative
growth because of low birth rates and an old age structure coupled with minimal net
migration. While Germany's death rate exceeds its birth rate, its population continues to
grow because of net migration. Pyramids in which the proportions of the population are
fairly evenly distributed among all age groups are representative of many highly
industrialized societies. Germany's old population reflects an extended period of low
birth and death rates. While fewer children have been born, most of those born survive
through to old age. The net effect is zero growth or no natural increase. Germany's
pyramid also shows the effect of higher mortality among males. In an industrialized
society, females generally outnumber males after age 40. This trend is particularly
evident in Germany's oldest age group.
While birth and death rates usually determine the basic pyramid shape, migration also
affects it. Typically, most migrants are in the working ages, and often more males than

females migrate across national borders. In some Middle Eastern countries a large
number of men migrated to work in the oil fields, which caused a bulge in one side of the
pyramid, while it took a "bite" out of the pyramid of some of the countries from which
they came.
Short-term fluctuations in birth and death rates that produce unusual bites or bulges in
population pyramids, such as the baby boom, often can be traced to such historical events
as wars, epidemics, economic booms, or depressions. The decline in the birth rate during
the Great Depression caused a small bite in the U.S. pyramid for the group born between
1930 and 1934. World Wars I and II caused a deficit of older men in Germany. The
impact of these events emphasizes the interrelationships among population change and
economic, social, political, and health factors.
Interpretation of population structure in less developed countries (LDCs) and
more developed countries (MDCs)

Population Structure
The population structure of a country is how it is made up of people of different ages, and
of males and females. The common method to show the structure is by a population
pyramid. This diagram is made up by putting two bar graphs (one for male, one for
female) side by side. From this you can read off what percentage of a population is of a
certain gender and age range. In the example below 4% of the population are females
aged between 25 and 29.

Population Structure - Developing Countries

This population pyramid is wide at the base, which means there are a large proportion of
young people in the country. It tapers very quickly as you go up into the older age groups,
and is narrow at the top. This shows that a very small proportion of people are elderly.
This shape of pyramid is typical of a developing country, such as Kenya or Vietnam.

Population Structure - Developed Countries

This shape is typical of a developed country. It is narrow at the base, wider in the middle,
and stays quite wide until the very top, as there is a sizable percentage of older people.
Note that there are more old women than men. Italy and Japan have population structures
that are of this shape.
Source: http://www.scalloway.org.uk/popu4.htm
Dependency ratios- Calculations and implications.

Dependency ratio: the ratio of the number of people who cannot be gainfully employed
in a population (the dependants) to the number who are actively or potentially active (the
employed/unemployed). The dependent population is sometime classified as those in the
age group 0-4 and 65years of age and over.
Dependency Ratio = Children(0-14)+Elders(65&over) x 1,000
Working age group(population age 15-64)
Dependency Ratio = 13.387 + 10.512
13.616

x 1,000 = 75.59

= 75.59:100
For every 100 people of working age, there are 75.59 people dependant on them.
Areas with high dependency ratios are economically stress, because they have a high
number of people who are economically dependant, relative to those who are likely to be

earning a wage. The indicator does not consider the unemployed or those on social
assistance.
A high dependency ratio could increase the burden that children and retirees place on
people of working age, through tax, finance transfers and family care.
Dependency ratio is expected to:
1) fall in least developed countries where there is a short life expectancy and where
fertility falls.
2) Remain stable in the less developed countries
3) Rise sharply in developed countries in population where there is no population
growth and where people live longer.
An increase in a countrys life expectancy from 50-55 increases its supply of workers and
reduces its dependency ratio, because less persons will dying within the age range 50-55,
and these persons will be an addition to the labour force.
An increase in the countrys life expectancy from 70-75 will increase the number of
dependence and its dependency ratio, because this age group will not be working.
A fall in fertility rates, reduce the number of children and thus dependence. After a long
period, this fall in fertility rate will reduce the number of workers.

Dependency ratio (DRO): the ratio of the number of people who cannot be gainfully
employed in a population (the dependants) to the number who are actively or potentially
active (the employed / employable). The DRO compares the number of dependants with
the number of economically able/ productive people. Dependants are usually the elderly
(those 65yrs and over and the young those under 15 yrs old.
DRO= (population under age15 + (population age 65 and older) x 1000
Population ages 15 to 64
The working population is expressed as 100. For instance, in 1990 the DRO in France
was 52:100 and Syria was 116:100. This means the France had a high proportion of
economically active people and will have a higher standard of living
.
Dependency ratio --- implications
Dependency ratios are economic indicators that are often used in international
comparisons. Areas with high dependency ratios are economically stressed because they
have a higher number of people who are economically dependent relative to those aged
15-64 who are likely to be earning a wage. The indicator does not consider the
unemployed or those on social assistance who are also economically dependent.

As baby boomers enter retirement age, the dependency ratio in Canada will likely
increase because there will be fewer people to financially support this large segment of
the population.
A higher dependency ratio could increase the burden that children and retirees place on
people of working age, both through tax-financed transfers and within-family care.
Dependency ratios are expected to fall in the least developed countries, remain stable in
the less developed countries, rise in China, and rise sharply in the developed countries.
Both the rise in dependency ratios in the more developed countries and the fall in
dependency ratios in the least developed countries reflect falling fertility rates and rising
life expectancies. The same phenomena affect the dependency ratio differently in these
two groups of countries because they have been occurring for different lengths of time.
For example, an increase in a country's life expectancy from 50 to 55 increases its supply
of workers and reduces its dependency ratio, but an increase from 70 to 75 increases its
number of dependents and its dependency ratio. Similarly, a fall in fertility rates initially
reduces the number of children and thus dependents. After a longer period, however, a
fall in fertility rates also reduces the number of workers. Thus, trends in fertility and life
expectancy imply that eventually all countries will experience the rising dependency
ratios that the more developed countries currently face.
Overall, despite some exceptions, the U.N.'s population forecasts imply rapid population
growth and falling dependency ratios in the developing countries and slow population
growth and rising dependency ratios in the developed countries. Because these forecasts
differ, the next two sections focus on the economic effects of demographic change in
developing countries and developed countries, respectively.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Over time, economists have moved away from the theory that population growth is
economically harmful. History shows that population and living standards usually grow
at the same time. A puzzle for theory, however, is why many developing countries'
economies have grown slowly in the recent past. Many economists believe that
government institutions and policies are responsible for some countries' slow growth, and
thus that institutional reforms would increase economic growth in these countries. At the
same time, economists believe a declining share of children in the population can bring
several economic benefits, but only to countries with appropriate economic policies.
Thus, the economic effects of demographic change in developing countries appear highly
contingent on these countries' future institutions and policies.

Economic effects of declining dependency ratios

A declining share of children in the population, and thus a declining dependency ratio,
may temporarily increase rates of economic growth in many developing countries. Thus,
the effect of the decline in dependency ratios as birthrates fall is often called the
"demographic dividend." Falling birthrates would allow women to spend less time caring
for children and thus to spend more time in the paid labor force. A movement of women
into the labor force would temporarily increase rates of growth in the labor force and thus
in measured economic output. Economies could also benefit in less direct ways from a
lower share of children in the population. For example, smaller family sizes would allow
parents to invest more in the education of each of their children.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Compared with developing countries, developed countries face a very different set of
demographic changes and resultant economic pressures. All developed countries expect
their dependency ratios to increase over the next 50 years. Some also expect their
populations to decline. Rising dependency ratios are likely to make government pension
and health insurance systems insolvent unless public policies change. Some economists
have also suggested that rising dependency ratios might cause stock prices to fall. A
variety of solutions to the problems of government pension and health insurance systems
have been proposed. All solutions are likely to reduce the income of some generations of
workers. The issue of declining stock prices has received less attention, in part because
this prediction has been strongly contested.
Economic effects of demographic change
The forecast decline in population in some developed countries may have both economic
benefits and disadvantages. Benefits might include lower levels of crowding and
congestion. The disadvantages might include higher costs per person of servicing the
public debt and of providing public goods, such as national defense. The largest
disadvantage of population decline, however, is likely to be its tendency to raise
dependency ratios and thus cause funding problems for government pension and health
insurance systems.
Rising dependency ratios create problems for many government pension systems because
these systems are unfunded, meaning they hold few assets and thus must pay benefits
directly from incoming taxes. An increasing dependency ratio both reduces incoming
revenues and increases the number of pensions to be paid from those revenues. Unless
higher tax rates, rapid wage growth, or a high rate of immigration increase revenues, the
system will lack the funds to pay the pensions it has promised.
Government health insurance systems are likely to face similar funding problems, since
they also typically pay benefits directly from taxes on workers. Population aging will
reduce the growth rate of the labor force and thus of tax revenues. It is also likely to
greatly increase demands for government spending on healthcare, since older people

consume a relatively large share of medical care. For these reasons, in the long run the
U.S. Medicare program is expected to represent a greater share of U.S. GDP and to face
greater funding problems than Social Security (Social Security and Medicare Boards of
Trustees).
Some economists are also concerned that the retirement of the babyboom generation
could cause a "stock price meltdown." Theoretical models suggest that, because workers
wish to hold many assets as they approach retirement, but fewer after they retire, the
retirement of the baby-boom generation could decrease the demand for assets and thus
cause asset prices to fall (Abel). However, empirical studies find little effect of
demographic changes on asset prices; a host of other shocks appear to be more important
(Poterba). Thus, there is no consensus within the economics profession that any such
stock-price meltdown will occur.
Policy responses to increasing dependency ratios
Developed countries might make several policy changes in response to rising dependency
ratios. These changes could include liberalizing immigration laws, encouraging higher
birth rates, raising taxes on workers, and reducing pension and health benefits. The
funding problems of government pension and health insurance systems, however, are
expected to be severe. For example, Auerbach, Kotlikoif, and Leibfritz calculated the
permanent reductions in all government transfer programs, starting in 1995, that would
have been required for taxation at thencurrent rates to fund all government transfer
programs. They found that the United States, Germany, and Japan would have needed to
reduce all transfers by 20, 18, and 29 percent, respectively. Italy would have needed to
cut transfers by 41 percent, due to the large increase expected in its dependency ratio and
its generous government pension system.4 Problems of this size would be difficult to
solve by changing any one policy.
Some developed countries might attempt to increase tax revenues by admitting more
young immigrants. For example, Canada admits many immigrants and attempts to admit
only those immigrants likely to pay the most net taxes over their lifetimes.5 A policy of
paying for pensions through higher immigration, however, would face some problems.
Stabilizing dependency ratios would require very heavy immigration. For example, the
United States would have to increase its number of new immigrants from its current 1.25
million per year to 12 million per year to maintain its current ratio of people aged 65 and
over to people age 1564 (U.N. 2000). Further, making Social security payments to these
immigrants after they retire would require even heavier immigration later.
A close substitute for higher immigration would be higher birth rates in developed
countries. There is indeed some interest in European countries in policies to raise birth
rates.6 However, there is also interest in the same countries in reducing crowding by
restricting population growth. Since many European countries expect large increases in
the number of old people, large increases in birthrates and populations would be required
to stabilize government pension and healthcare systems. Therefore, the goals of

stabilizing the ratio of old to young and restricting population growth are incompatible.
As a result, reforms to pension and health insurance systems are likely to be necessary.
Raising taxes on workers could allow governments to pay their future pension liabilities.
Such tax increases would hurt workers and increase distortions in labor markets.
European countries fear that raising their pension taxes gives incentives for workers to
migrate to countries with lower pension taxes. KotlikoflF, Smetters, and Walliser also
find that higher tax rates would reduce the national saving rate by redistributing funds
from workers, who tend to have high saving rates, to retirees, who tend to have low or
even negative saving rates. Many plans to privatize the U.S. Social Security system
would also effectively raise taxes, by inviting workers to save more in order to get
roughly the same benefits Social Security had previously promised them (Feldstein and
Samwick).
Reducing pension benefits, perhaps by raising the age at which they become available,
would obviate the need for tax increases. Lower pension benefits would hurt current
retirees and older workers but help later generations of workers, who would pay lower
tax rates and suffer fewer labor-market distortions. Later generations would also live in
an economy with higher private saving, a larger capital stock, and thus higher wages.
Analyses of privatization plans typically find that future generations would benefit
greatly from reforms that somewhat reduced incomes of initial cohorts of retirees
(Kotlikoff, Smetters, and Walliser).
Perhaps because there would be both winners and losers from Social Security reform,
economists disagree about the correct response to the current system's problems.
Diamond recommends Social Security reforms that maintain the system's current
structure. He emphasizes this structure has appealing aspects, such as a low cost of
managing workers' contribution records. By contrast, Feldstein and Samwick propose
partially replacing Social Security with individual asset-holding accounts. A related
approach would be simply to cut benefits and allow individuals to set up their own saving
vehicles. If governments chose this option, they would need to tell workers not to expect
government support in their retirement, since any such expectation would reduce
workers' incentives to save for their own retirement.
In summary, projected dependency ratios mean developed countries are likely either to
cut pension and health benefits for older people, raise taxes on workers, or do some of
each. Higher immigration and birth rates might alleviate the problems of pay-as-you-go
government health and pension systems, but are unlikely to solve them entirely. Analyses
of government health and pension systems commonly conclude that the longer tax
increases or benefit reductions needed to make these systems sustainable are delayed, the
larger they will need to be. Thus, the gains and losses from pension reform will depend
both on how pensions are reformed and how soon policymakers act to reform them.
Source: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3699/is_200401/ai_n9406884/pg_2-9