Article Highlights
Keynes genuinely enjoyed being a speculator and investor, and was able to adapt to some of the worst nancial calamities.
After concluding unpredictable animal spirits were the force behind market activity, Keynes altered his strategy to focus on the intrinsic
value of stocks.
His success in the 1930s came from pursuing low valuations, dividends, positive cash ow and future earnings and from following a buyand-hold approach.
As an active investor, I
March 2014
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18
Action
Shares
1911
1912
1912
1912
1912
1912
1913
1913
1913
1913
1913
1913
1913
1913
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
10
10
10
20
10
10
10
20
30
30
30
10
20
20
Price ($)
71
60
66
66
68
65
661/3
65
65
61
62
67
59
603/16
AAII Journal
Portfolio Strategies
March 2014
Years
Currencies
()
192122
192223
192324
192435
192526
Totals
5,000
14,400
(300)
2,000
1,500
22,600
Commodities
()
5,400
(6,400)
28,300
(15,000)
(700)
11,600
Stocks
()
3,600
3,600
0
14,500
2,600
23,400
19
AAII Journal
Portfolio Strategies
Year
Discretionary
Portfolio
(%)
1925
30.26
1926
6.40
1927
2.00
1928
3.04
1929
7.29
1930
(12.48)
1931
(5.70)
1932
29.19
1933
54.39
1934
26.13
1935
34.75
1936
40.00
1937
11.20
(22.75)
1938
1939
10.64
1940
(7.07)
1941
30.55
1942
8.35
1943
39.29
1944
14.20
1945
12.52
1946
22.41
Average 15.21
U.K. Equity
Index
(%)
Difference
(%)
17.33
11.83
19.90
16.99
5.40
(17.58)
(30.17)
27.33
27.04
13.15
7.95
19.08
0.63
(8.64)
(5.17)
(21.08)
27.24
9.38
26.97
10.86
3.65
15.62
8.08
12.93
(5.43)
(17.90)
(13.95)
1.89
5.10
24.47
1.86
27.35
12.98
26.81
20.92
10.57
(14.11)
15.81
14.01
3.31
(1.02)
12.32
3.34
8.87
6.79
7.13
Source: Annual Reports to Inspectors of Accounts for Kings College for financial years
ended in August, estimated by Chambers and
Dimson in the Journal of Economic Perspectives. Table is condensed to exclude restricted
fund returns, although average returns are
reflected in the total fund performance.
John F. Wasik is a journalist, speaker and the author of Keynes's Way to Wealth (McGraw-Hill, 2013), from which much of this
article was excerpted. He writes a weekly investment column for Reuters and contributes to The New York Times, Forbes and
other publications.
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