trip generation notes vtu

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trip generation notes vtu

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The first phase of transportation planning process deals with surveys, data collection and

inventory. The next phase is the analysis of the data so collected and building models to

describe the mathematical relationship that can be discerned in the trip making behaviour.

The analysis and model building phase starts with the step commonly known as trip

generation

Trip generation is a general term used in the transportation planning process to cover the field

of calculating the number f trip ends in a given area. The objective of the trip generation stage

is to understand the reasons behind the trip making behaviour and to produce mathematical

relationships to synthesise the trip-making pattern on the basis of the observed trips, land-use

data and household characteristics.

Trip

Trip is a one-way person movement by a mechanised mode of transport, having two trip ends,

an origin and destination. The first activity in travel-demand forecasting is to identify the

various trip types important to a particular transport-planning study. The trip types studied in

a particular area depend on the types of transport-planning issues to be resolved. The first

level of trip classification used normally is a broad grouping into home-based and non-homebased trips.

Home Based and Non-Home Based trips

Home-based trips are those trips that have one trip end at a household. Typical home-based

trips are the journey to work, shopping, and school. Examples of non-home-based trips are

trips between work and shop and business trips between two places of employment. The

amount of home-based trips varies from 80 to 90 percent of total travel.

Non- Home-based trips are those trips that do not have either the origin or destination end at

a household Examples of non-home-based trips are trips between work and shop and business

trips between two places of employment.

The above definitions are further classified by the following examples. Consider a trip from

home to work and the return trip from work to home. Both these trips are home based trips,

because one end of the trip is at home. Both these trips are considered to have been generated

at the home zone and attracted to the work zone. We thus have two work-purpose trip end

generations in the home zone and two work- purpose attractions in the work zone. Consider

another example of the trips from the place of work to shopping and return to the same place

of work, as it is usual during the lunch recess.

Both these trips are non-home based, because neither end of the trip is the home of the person

making trip. Both these trips are considered to have been generated at the work zone and

attracted to the shop zone. We thus have two shopping- purpose trip end generated in the

work zone and two shopping-purpose attractions in the shopping zone.

By the above definitions, total number of trip generations in any are should be equal to the

total number of attractions.

Trip purpose

Trips are made from different purposes and a classification of trips by purpose is necessary.

The following are some of the important classes of trip purpose

1. Work

2. School

3. Business

4. Social or recreational, sports

5. Others

Factors governing trip generation and attraction rates

A number of factors govern the trip generation rates. These are discussed below.

1. Income- obviously, family income which represents its ability to pay for a journey

affects the number of trips generated by a household. A general trend is that the higher

the income, higher is the trip generation rate

2. Car ownership- A car represents easy mobility, and hence a car owning household will

generate more trips that a non-car-owning household. By the same reasoning, the

more cars there are in a household, the more the number of trips generated. Of course,

number of cars owned is itself related to the income of the family, which has been

listed earlier as a factor.

3. Family size and composition. The bigger the family, the more trips there are likely to

be generated. Apart from the size, the composition of the family itself is important.

For instance, if both the husband and wife are employed. If there are many school

going children, the number of school-purpose trips will be large. If some of the

children are grown up and are employed, the number of work- purpose trips will

increase. The age structure of the family also governs the trip rates. Old persons are

not expected to generate as many trips as younger ones. The occupation of the family

is also known to influence the travel pattern.

4. Land use characteristics. Different land uses produce different trip rates. For example,

a residential area with a higher density of dwellings can produce more trips than one

with a low density of dwellings of the affluent society, which may produce a large

number of private car trips. The rateable value of the dwelling and the type of the

dwelling units affect the trip generation rates. The most important assumption made in

transportation planning is that the amount of travel is dependent on land-use.

5. Distance of the zone from the town centre- the distance of the zone from the town

centre is an important determinant of the amount of travel that people might like to

make to the town centre. The farther the town centre, the less the number if trips are

likely to be.

6. Accessibility of public transport system and its efficiency- the accessibility to a public

transport system and its efficiency determine to some extent the desire of person to

make trips. An easily accessible and efficient public transport system generates more

trips.

7. Employment opportunities, floor space in the industrial and shopping units and

offices, sales figures in shops etc.- the employment potentiality of an industrial or

shopping unit or an office establishment directly governs the trip attraction rate.

Similarly another factor to which the trip attraction rate can be related is the floor

space in the premises of industries, shops and offices.

Multiple liner regression analysis

Multiple linear regression analysis is a well- known statistical technique for fitting

mathematical relationships between dependent and independent variables. This technique has

been exploited fruitfully in a number of transportation planning studies carried out so far and

has become a very powerful tool in the hands of a transport planner. In the case of trip

generation equations the dependent variable is the number of trips and the independent

variables are the various measurable factors that influence trip generation. These independent

variables are the land-use and socio economic characteristics dicussed earlier. The general

form of the equation obtained is

Yp=a1X1+a1X2+a3X3+.anXn+U

Yp= number of trips for specified purpose p

X1, X2, X3,., Xn=independent variables relating to for example, land-use, socio economic

factors etc.

a1, a2, a3,, an= Coefficients of the respective independent variables X 1, X2, X3,., Xn,

obtained by linear regression analysis

U= Distribution term, which is a constant and representing that portion of the value of Y p not

explained by the independent variables.

The equation of the above form is developed from the present day data pertaining to

independent variables and dependent variables and the dependent variables, using statistical

techniques of least squares fitting. The equation thus developed is used for determining the

future values of trips, knowing the estimated future values of the independent variables.

The statistical theory of Multi linear regression analysis is based on the following important

assumptions

1. All the variables are independent of each other

2. All the variables are normally distributed

3. All the variables are continuous

4. A liner relationship exists between the dependent variable and the independent

variable:

the equation contributes a distinct portion of trip numbers.

It is difficult to ensure that the above basic assumptions are satisfied in most of the trip

generation studies. Firstly, the so called independent variables in the regression equations are

not truly independent of each other, and some sort of correlation normally exists among them.

The variables such as car-ownership, family income, residential density etc. are all interrelated to certain extent. Secondly, many of these variables are, strictly speaking, not

normally distributed. Finally, some of them are not continuous variables, an example being

the car ownership. The number of cars owned by a family can only be a discrete variable.

Aggregated and disaggregated analysis

Multiple linear regression analysis of two types:

1. Aggregated, or zonal least-square regression, where each traffic zone is treated as one

observation.

2. Disaggregated, or Household least-square regression, where each household is treated

as an observation.

The aggregated analysis which is most widely used, is based on the assumption that

contiguous households exhibit a certain amount of similarity in travel characteristics. This

assumption allows the data in a zone to be grouped and the mean value of the independent

variable used in further calculations.

Some of the disadvantages associated with the aggregated models are.

1. The analysis masks the variations in the data

2. The data is inefficiently utilised

3. The zonal sample mean is not necessarily a reliable estimate of the population mean

4. The model is dependent on the type of zoning system adopted.

5. The method is based on an important assumption that zones are to a large extent

homogenous with respect to travel and socio-economic characteristics. While care is

taken normally to select the zone boundaries to fulfil the above assumption, the

variations within the zone can sometimes be large.

6. In the process of making zones as small as possible to make them truly homogeneous,

the planner increases the complexity of analysis, notably trip distribution and

assignment.

Disaggregated analysis, though not so widely used, treats each household as an observation.

In this process, all the normous amount of data is used more efficiently resulting in a more

meaningful description of the characteristics. As compared to aggregated analysis,

disaggregated analysis produces better results and is considered more likely to be stable over

time and to provide more reliable future estimates

Criteria for Evaluation of regression Equations

The following criteria should generally be applied in evaluating and selecting a regression

equation

1. The multiple correlation coefficient should have a value at least 0.75 or even higher. A

value close to 1.0 shows a very good correlation

2. The standard error of the estimate of the dependent variable should be sufficiently

small.

3. The F test should be carried out to examine evidence of the degree of certainty that a

meaning full relationship exists between the dependent and independent variables.

4. The equation should have accuracy, validity, simplicity and sharpness and constancy.

Disadvantages of multiple-linear regression analysis technique

Some of the disadvantages associated with the assumptions made in the linear regression

technique have already been discussed earlier. In addition, the following points deserve

mention

1. The equation derived is purely empirical in nature and fails to establish a meaningful

relationship between the dependent and independent variables.

2. The technique is based on the premise that the regression coefficients initially

established will still remain unchanged in the future and can be used in the regression

equation for predicting future travel. How far the prediction is valid in future is a

main question

3. Difficulties arise in evaluation the effect of statistical problems relating to nonlinearity of the response surface and high correlation amongst the explanatory

variables.

Category analysis

Category analysis or cross classification technique is a method developed by wotton and pick

and has been used in some transportation studies in U.K. it is based on determining the

average response or average value of the dependent variable for a certain defined categories,

each dimension in the matrix reoresenting one independent variable. The independednt

variables themselves are classified into a definite number of discrete class intervals.

Assumptions

The technique is based on the following assumptions

1. The household is a fundamental unit in the trip generation process, and most journeys

begin or end in response to the requirement of the family

2. The trips generated by the household depends upon the characteristics of that

household and its location relative to its required facilities such as shops, school and

work place.

3. D with one set of household with one set of characteristics generates different trips

from the household with other set of characteristics.

4. Only three factors are of prime importance in affecting the amount of travel a

household produces: car-ownership, income and household structure.

5. Within each of the above three factors, a limited number of ranges can be established

so as to describe the trip-generating capacity of the household by a limited number of

categories.

6. Trip generation rates are stable over a time so long as factors external to the

household are the same as when the trips were first measured.

Categorization of households

As stated above, households are classified on the basis of three factors, viz., car ownership,

income and household structure. These are then classified into different ranges as indicated

below.

1. Car ownership- 3 levels, (0 car, 1 car and more than 1 car)

2. Disposable income- 6 classes:

(1) < 500 p a

(2) 500-1000 p a

(3) 1000-1500 pa

(4) 1500-2000 p a

(5) 2000-2500 pa

(6) >2500 p a

3. Household structure

i) No employed residents and one non employed adult

ii) No employed residents and 2 or more non employed adult

iii) one employed residents and one or less non employed adult

iv) one employed residents and 2 or more non employed adult

v) two employed residents and one or less non employed adult

vi) two employed residents and two or more non employed adult

Critical appraisal of the category analysis technique

The advantages that have been claimed for the technique are:

1) The whole concept of household trip making is simplified in this technique. The

technique categorises the household according to certain socio economic characteristics

and this appears rational

2) Unlike regression analysis technique, no mathematical relationship is derived between

trip making and household characteristics. This takes away many of the statistical

drawbacks of the regression analysis

3) since data from the census can be used directly, it saves considerable effort, time and

money spent on home-interview survey

4) the computations are relatively simpler

5) since disaggregate data are used, the technique simulates human behaviour more

realistically than the zonal aggregation process normally employed in regression analysis

The following are some of the disadvantages of the technique

1) It is difficult to test the significance of the various explanatory variables.

2) The technique normally makes use of the studies carried out in the past elsewhere, with

broad corrections

3) In the analysis it is assumed that income and car ownership increases in the future. The

categories of higher incomes and higher car ownership are, however, the ones which are

the least represented in the base year. Moreover, they are the ones most likely to be used

for the future estimates of trip generation

4) New variables cannot be introduced at the future date

5) Large samples are needed to assign trip rates to any one category.

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