n=
Sumas
Promedio
Desv.Est. insesgada
Varianza insesgada
50
1801.5
36.03
9.0676201229
82.221734694
Sxx
4028.865
-0.06542876
Coef. de determinacin, R2= 0.0042809227
Bo=Y-B1*X
9.6966384875
B1=Sxy/Sxx
-0.028716028
SSE=Syy-B1*Sxy
772.73555658
MSE=SSE/(n-2)
16.098657429
X2
506.25
2410.81
2088.49
2116
1361.61
605.16
702.25
973.44
453.69
1866.24
1927.21
1036.84
864.36
817.96
1909.69
973.44
1849
1413.76
750.76
1489.96
1204.09
1466.89
2342.56
979.69
2410.81
1253.16
1102.24
1640.25
1122.25
918.09
1592.01
2152.96
600.25
835.21
595.36
665.64
542.89
2480.04
1296
1713.96
538.24
1927.21
1892.25
2171.56
595.36
2125.21
2401
1444
400
2410.81
Y2
151.29
43.56
102.01
73.96
136.89
28.09
84.64
98.01
114.49
27.04
123.21
102.01
18.49
156.25
26.01
179.56
86.49
0.64
9.61
123.21
100
11.56
38.44
219.04
29.16
5.76
11.56
158.76
161.29
129.96
73.96
84.64
198.81
156.25
59.29
14.44
166.41
169
4.41
12.96
9.61
198.81
94.09
163.84
72.25
46.24
2.56
127.69
108.16
213.16
XY
276.75
324.06
461.57
395.6
431.73
130.38
243.8
308.88
227.91
224.64
487.29
325.22
126.42
357.5
222.87
418.08
399.9
30.08
84.94
428.46
347
130.22
300.08
463.24
265.14
84.96
112.88
510.3
425.45
345.42
343.14
426.88
345.45
361.25
187.88
98.04
300.57
647.4
75.6
149.04
71.92
618.99
421.95
596.48
207.4
313.48
78.4
429.4
208
716.86
433.1
8.662
3.9796877121
15.8379142857
68936.91
4527.57
15488.9
Syy
776.0578
Suma(Y2)
68936.91
Suma(X2)
4527.57
Sxy
-115.693
Sumas de cuadrados
yiestimada
9.0505278583
8.2866815145
8.3843160096
8.3757012012
8.6370170557
8.9902241996
8.9356637465
8.8006984151
9.0849870919
8.4561060795
8.4360048599
8.7719823871
8.8523872654
8.8753600878
8.4417480655
8.8006984151
8.4618492851
8.6169158361
8.9098193213
8.5881998081
8.7001923172
8.5968146165
8.3067827341
8.7978268123
8.2866815145
8.6800910976
8.7432663591
8.533639355
8.7346515507
8.8265428402
8.5508689718
8.36421479
8.9930958024
8.8667452794
8.9959674052
8.9557649661
9.027555036
8.2665802949
8.6628614808
8.5077949298
9.0304266388
8.4360048599
8.4474912711
8.3584715844
8.9959674052
8.3728295984
8.2895531173
8.6054294249
9.1223179283
8.2866815145
ei
3.2494721417
-1.6866815145
1.7156839904
0.2242987988
3.0629829443
-3.6902241996
0.2643362535
1.0993015849
1.6150129081
-3.2561060795
2.6639951401
1.3280176129
-4.5523872654
3.6246399122
-3.3417480655
4.5993015849
0.8381507149
-7.8169158361
-5.8098193213
2.5118001919
1.2998076828
-5.1968146165
-2.1067827341
6.0021731877
-2.8866815145
-6.2800910976
-5.3432663591
4.066360645
3.9653484493
2.5734571598
0.0491310282
0.83578521
5.1069041976
3.6332547206
-1.2959674052
-5.1557649661
3.872444964
4.7334197051
-6.5628614808
-4.9077949298
-5.9304266388
5.6639951401
1.2525087289
4.4415284156
-0.4959674052
-1.5728295984
-6.6895531173
2.6945705751
1.2776820717
6.3133184855
Bandas de confianza
LIC
LSC
6.98685512 11.1142006
6.27146741 10.3018956
6.70737097 10.0612611
6.67061394 10.0807885
7.49078313 9.78325098
7.14305602 10.8373924
7.27171561 10.5996119
7.50513884 10.096258
6.8926023 11.2773719
6.99594449 9.91626767
6.91872488 9.95328484
7.53158602 10.0123788
7.43404523 10.2707293
7.39434979 10.3563704
6.94110398 9.94239216
7.50513884 10.096258
7.01741546 9.90628311
7.45870911 9.77512256
7.32719285 10.4924458
7.4014735 9.77492612
7.54684944 9.8535352
7.42001213 9.7736171
6.36425295 10.2493125
7.50824097 10.0874127
6.27146741 10.3018956
7.53639671 9.82378549
7.54702258 9.93951014
7.25912303 9.80815568
7.54931448 9.91998862
7.47302895 10.1800567
7.30846867 9.79326927
6.62101386 10.1074157
7.13591533 10.8502763
7.40975114 10.3237394
7.12874182 10.863193
7.22597826 10.6855517
7.04781081 11.0072993
6.17742149 10.3557391
7.52196711 9.80375585
7.17834036 9.8372495
7.04028187 11.0205714
6.91872488 9.95328484
6.96323417 9.93174837
6.59597297 10.1209702
7.12874182 10.863193
6.65827581 10.0873834
6.28480287 10.2943034
7.43738982 9.77346903
6.78725751 11.4573783
6.27146741 10.3018956
-1.17240E-013
Coef. de correlacin, r=
Si 1=0, =0, entonces la variacin de X no explica la variacin de Y o no hay regresin lineal entre X y Y
Si = 0.05
/2=
La regin de rechazo es:
H 0 : 1=0
H 1 : 1 0
6.1503382
| t0 |>t/2
1
1
T=
10.371336
2.0106347576
Intervalo de prediccin para y dado x
Si xo se fija en:
50
La prediccin para la respuesta yo es:
= -0.4542771534
MS E
8.2608371
El error estndar estimado de la prediccin:
S xx
r n2
1r2
4.1473438
Un intervalo de prediccin para yo es:
-0.077956
a
16.599631
H 0 : =0
H 1 : 0
0.025
T=
Bandas de prediccin
LIP
LSP
0.72346254 17.3775932
-0.02850698
16.60187
0.14456987 16.6240621
0.13018155 16.6212209
0.48869674 16.7853374
0.71415617 17.2662922
0.6985529 17.1727746
0.63003465 16.9713622
0.72509338 17.4448808
0.25773163 16.6544805
0.22726499 16.6447447
0.60988371 16.9340811
0.66135767 17.0434169
0.67324675 17.0774734
0.23606684 16.6474293
0.63003465 16.9713622
0.2662614 16.6574372
0.46690267 16.766929
0.68875015 17.1308885
0.43408483 16.7423148
0.55086894 16.8495157
0.44413801 16.7494912
0.00890989 16.6046556
0.62810813 16.9675455
-0.02850698
16.60187
0.53212764 16.8280546
0.5877608 16.8987719
0.36628583 16.7009929
0.58073864 16.8885645
0.64648957 17.0065961
0.38846551 16.7132724
0.11072939 16.6177002
0.71478734 17.2714043
0.66893437 17.0645562
0.71539961 17.2765352
0.70510234 17.2064276
0.72089151 17.3342186
-0.06683775 16.5999983
0.51529057 16.8104324
0.3316882 16.6839017
0.72127819 17.3395751
0.22726499 16.6447447
0.24479105 16.6501915
0.10088882 16.6160543
0.71539961 17.2765352
0.12534717 16.620312
-0.02310562 16.6022119
0.45401309 16.7568458
0.72387885 17.520757
-0.02850698
16.60187
= -0.4542771534
Por lo tanto: No hay evidencia para rechazar Ho
20
Grfica de residuos
Diagrama de dispersin
6
15
4
ei
Linear (ei)
2
10
ei
-2
Y
Linear
(Y)
LIC
LSC
35 LIP
LSP
0
15
-5
20
25
30
-4
40
45
50
55
-6
-8
15
-10
20
25
30
35
X
40
45
50
55
Var Indep.
X
1
2
3
4
5
6
n=
X2
1
4
9
16
25
36
Y2
7.84
23.04
67.24
144
231.04
327.61
XY
2.8
9.6
24.6
48
76
108.6
yiestimada
2.219047619
5.4047619048
8.5904761905
11.7761904762
14.9619047619
18.1476190476
ei
0.580952381
-0.6047619048
-0.3904761905
0.2238095238
0.2380952381
-0.0476190476
Bandas de confianza
LIC
LSC
1.2321869 3.20590834
4.66386912 6.14565469
8.01044504 9.17050734
11.1961593 12.3562216
14.221012 15.7027975
17.1607583 19.1344798
Bandas de prediccin
LIP
LSP
0.53585232 3.90224292
3.85293251 6.9565913
7.10869062 10.0722618
10.2944049 13.257976
13.4100754 16.5137342
16.4644237 19.8308144
Diagrama de dispersin
25
20
Sumas
Promedio
21
3.5
61.1
10.1833333333
Desv.Est. insesgada
Varianza insesgada
1.8708286934
3.5
5.9760912532
35.7136666667
Sumas de cuadrados
Sxx
17.5
Syy
178.5683333333
91
800.77
269.6
-1.33227E-015
No. Observ.
1
2
3
4
5
6
15
10
5
Sxy
55.75
4
X
SSE=Syy-B1*Sxy
MSE=SSE/(n-2)
Si 1=0, =0, entonces la variacin de X no explica la variacin de Y o no hay regresin lineal entre X y Y
Si = 0.05
/2=
La regin de rechazo es:
H 0 : 1=0
H 1 : 1 0
1
1
MS E
S xx
T=
r n2
1r 2
= 27.1359962085
Por lo tanto: Se rechaza Ho
H 0 : =0
H 1 : 0
2.7764451052
T=
0.2004954
Si xo se fija en:
3.5
horas
La prediccin para la respuesta yo es: 10.183333
0.025
| t0 |>t/2
Si xo se fija en:
3.5
horas
La respuesta media esperada sera de: 10.183333
= 27.1359962085
Por lo tanto: Se rechaza Ho
0.530461
Y = 0 + 1 X
y i= 0 + 1 x i+ i
i ~ N (0, )
Los i se suponen errores aleatorios con distribucin normal, media cero y varianza 2;
0 y 1 son constantes desconocidas (parmetros del modelo de regresin)
Ahora, el modelo de regresin lineal simple ajustado (o recta estimada) es:
^y = ^ 0 + ^ 1 x
^ 0 = y ^ 1
x
donde:
Suma de cuadrados de X
S xx = ( xi x )2 = x 2
i =1
S xx
( )
xi
i=1
i=1
S xy
Suma de cuadrados de Y
n
^ 1=
S yy = ( y i y )2 = y 2
i =1
i=1
( )
yi
i=1
i=1
i=1
S xy = ( x i
x ) y i= xi y i
Coeficiente de correlacin:
r=
i=1
i=1
( )( )
yi xi
n
Coeficiente de determinacin:
S xy
R2 =r 2
S xx S yy
e i= y i ^y i
i =1
n2
i =1
Tambin:
( y i ^y i ) 2
MS E =
SS E = e 2i = ( y i ^y i )
SS E =S yy ^ 1 S xy
SS E
n2
^ +
^ x
^ ( Y|x ) =
^Y = y
^ 0 =E
0
0
1 0
0
Bandas de confianza para la recta de regresin:
^y 0 t / 2, n2
[
MS E
x )2
1 ( x o
+
n
S xx
Bandas de prediccin:
^y 0 t / 2, n2 MS E 1+
x )2
1 ( x o
+
n
S xx
No. Observ.
1
2
3
4
5
6
n=
X2
1
4
16
16
49
144
Y2
5041
5041
5476
6400
6400
7396
XY
71
142
296
320
560
1032
230
35754
2421
yiestimada
71.45
72.8375
75.6125
75.6125
79.775
86.7125
ei
-0.45
-1.8375
-1.6125
4.3875
0.225
-0.7125
Bandas de confianza
LIC
LSC
67.1647411 75.7352589
69.0983479 76.5766521
72.6169957 78.6080043
72.6169957 78.6080043
76.4808953 83.0691047
80.4657154 92.9592846
Bandas de prediccin
LIP
LSP
63.1768167 79.7231833
64.8335399 80.8414601
67.9277642 83.2972358
67.9277642 83.2972358
71.9690251 87.5809749
77.2729854 96.1520146
100
95
90
85
80
Sumas
Promedio
30
5
462
77
Desv.Est. insesgada
Varianza insesgada
4
16
6
36
3.6514837167
13.333333333
5.4772255751
30
Sxx
80
Syy
180
Sumas de cuadrados
-1.42109E-014
75
70
65
60
Sxy
111
55
50
Coef. De Correlacin, r=
0.925
0.855625
Bo=Y-B1*X
B1=Sxy/Sxx
70.0625
1.3875
SSE=Syy-B1*Sxy
25.9875
MSE=SSE/(n-2)
6.496875
/2=
La regin de rechazo es:
H 0 : 1=0
H 1 : 1 0
0.025
| t0 |>t/2
1
1
MS E
S xx
4.8688425427
Por lo tanto: Se rechaza Ho
H 0 : =0
H 1 : 0
T=
r n2
1r 2
2.7764451052
T=
horas
77
Si 1=0, =0, entonces la variacin de X no explica la variacin de Y o no hay regresin lineal entre X y Y
Si = 0.05
4.8688425427
Por lo tanto: Se rechaza Ho
5
77
horas
9 10 11 12 13 14 15