Table 1

Predicted Finishing Times and Number of Participants at the 2016 Games of Texas Track and Field Championships (Girls Sprint Events)
1st Place

Age
Group

Pred.

2nd Place

95% PI

Pred.

3rd Place

95% PI

Pred.

4th Place

95% PI

Pred.

5th Place

95% PI

Pred.

95% PI

[8.13, 8.33]

8.26

[8.17, 8.36]

6th Place

Pred.

95% PI

r
e

Part.a

[8.19, 8.37]

47

46

Pred.

Girls 50 m Dash
8&U

7.97

[7.89, 8.05]

8.03

[7.95, 8.12]

8.15

[8.06, 8.23]

8.23

Girls 100 m Dash

8&U

10&U

13.78

[13.62, 13.95]

13.89

[13.72, 14.07]

14.03

[13.88, 14.18]

14.16

12&U

12.92

[12.75, 13.10]

13.14

[13.00, 13.29]

13.27

[13.11, 13.43]

14&U

12.35

[12.22, 12.47]

12.48

[12.35, 12.61]

12.60

16&U

12.14

[12.06, 12.23]

12.35

[12.25, 12.46]

18&U

11.91

[11.77, 12.04]

12.09

[11.97, 12.21]

p
o

o
C
n

8.28

[14.01, 14.32]

14.31

[14.14, 14.48]

14.42

[14.24, 14.60]

44

13.31

[13.21, 13.41]

13.42

[13.33, 13.52]

13.55

[13.45, 13.65]

46

[12.47, 12.74]

12.73

[12.60, 12.85]

12.81

[12.68, 12.94]

12.90

[12.77, 13.03]

43

12.47

[12.36, 12.57]

12.49

[12.38, 12.60]

12.56

[12.45, 12.67]

41

12.12

[12.00, 12.23]

12.20

[12.10, 12.31]

12.19

[12.06, 12.32]

12.34

[12.24, 12.44]

33

n
ra

o
d

Girls 200 m Dash

8&U

31.13

[30.79, 31.46]

31.39

[30.99, 31.80]

31.93

[31.63, 32.23]

32.38

[32.09, 32.67]

32.75

[32.49, 33.01]

32.94

[32.66, 33.22]

43

10&U

28.17

[27.85, 28.48]

28.57

[28.32, 28.82]

28.70

[28.39, 29.02]

29.04

[28.72, 29.35]

29.27

[28.91, 29.62]

29.64

[29.28, 30.00]

47

12&U

26.73

[26.31, 27.15]

26.78

[26.52, 27.05]

27.05

[26.83, 27.27]

27.24

[27.04, 27.43]

27.46

[27.36, 27.56]

27.94

[27.75, 28.12]

46

14&U

25.24

[24.90, 25.58]

25.54

[25.27, 25.82]

25.84

[25.59, 26.10]

26.22

[25.96, 26.47]

26.27

[25.98, 26.57]

26.37

[26.02, 26.72]

43

16&U

24.79

[24.55, 25.04]

25.11

[24.87, 25.34]

25.34

[25.07, 25.60]

25.42

[25.09, 25.76]

25.56

[25.24, 25.89]

40

18&U

24.60

[24.37, 24.84]

24.62

[24.35, 24.90]

24.79

[24.54, 25.04]

33

1
0

B
6

Girls 400 m Dash

8&U

1:10.71 [1:09.76, 1:11.66]

1:13.36

[1:12.50, 1:14.23]

1:14.01

[1:13.18, 1:14.85]

1:15.49

[1:14.43, 1:16.54]

1:15.41

[1:14.40, 1:16.41]

1:16.61

[1:15.14, 1:18.08]

41

10&U

1:05.02

[1:04.34, 1:05.71]

1:06.50

[1:05.72, 1:07.27]

1:06.85

[1:06.12, 1:07.58]

1:07.36

[1:06.76, 1:07.95]

1:08.86

[1:08.33, 1:09.39] 1:10.08

[1:09.05, 1:11.12]

44

12&U

59.29

[58.57, 1:00.01]

1:00.40

[59.67, 1:01.13]

1:01.21

[1:00.59, 1:01.83]

1:01.66

[1:00.88, 1:02.45]

1:02.54

[1:01.58, 1:03.50] 1:03.20

[1:01.84, 1:04.56]

44

14&U

57.13

[56.48, 57.77]

58.60

[57.91, 59.30]

59.30

[58.75, 59.84]

59.55

[59.04, 1:00.06]

1:00.40

[59.66, 1:01.14]

1:01.44

[1:00.69, 1:02.19]

41

16&U

55.73

[55.09, 56.37]

55.94

[55.32, 56.55]

57.01

[56.50, 57.51]

57.97

[57.51, 58.44]

58.34

[57.85, 58.83]

59.07

[58.56, 59.58]

37

18&U

56.50

[55.94, 57.05]

56.92

[56.32, 57.53]

57.04

[56.32, 57.76]

57.64

[56.98, 58.29]

57.79

[56.72, 58.85]

28

Note. PI = prediction interval; Indicates data unavailable for one or more years, therefore no prediction was made. a. Predicted Participants were calculated and rounded to the nearest whole number.

Table 2
Predicted Finishing Times and Number of Participants at the 2016 Games of Texas Track and Field Championships (Girls Hurdle and Relay Events)
1st Place

Age
Group

Pred.

95% PI

2nd Place
Pred.

3rd Place

95% PI

Pred.

4th Place

95% PI

Pred.

5th Place

95% PI

Pred.

95% PI

[14.49, 15.11]

14.82

[14.54, 15.10]

6th Place

Pred.

95% PI

r
e

Part.a

15.31

[15.04, 15.57]

28

Pred.

Girls 80 m Hurdles
12&U

13.48

[13.26, 13.70]

13.93

[13.65, 14.20]

14.53

[14.24, 14.81]

14.80

Girls 100 m Hurdles

p
o

o
C
n

14&U

15.29

[14.97, 15.60]

15.64

[15.32, 15.96]

15.95

[15.68, 16.23]

16.08

[15.84, 16.33]

16.48

[16.18, 16.78]

16.60

[16.31, 16.89]

34

16&U

14.92

[14.71, 15.13]

15.27

[15.04, 15.51]

15.83

[15.61, 16.05]

15.91

[15.65, 16.17]

16.28

[15.98, 16.58]

16.54

[16.29, 16.78]

27

18&U

14.57

[14.42, 14.72]

14.97

[14.76, 15.17]

15.25

[15.02, 15.48]

15.30

[14.99, 15.60]

19

Girls 300 m Hurdles

o
d

14&U

46.00

[45.35, 46.66]

47.41

[46.82, 48.00]

47.57

[47.05, 48.08]

48.25

[47.62, 48.89]

49.01

[48.33, 49.68]

49.64

[48.93, 50.36]

29

16&U

44.92

[44.30, 45.53]

45.68

[45.31, 46.04]

45.75

[45.32, 46.18]

46.55

[45.83, 47.27]

28

18&U

43.27

[42.72, 43.83]

44.81

[44.27, 45.34]

45.46

[44.74, 46.18]

[45.43, 46.94]

19

1:04.87

[1:04.17, 1:05.57]

1:05.98

[1:05.18, 1:06.79]

1:06.59

[1:05.49, 1:07.69]

30

n
ra

46.19

Girls 4 x 100 m Relay

8&U

1:03.10 [1:02.62, 1:03.57]

1:03.73

[1:03.10, 1:04.35]

1:04.33 [1:03.74, 1:04.92]

B
6

10&U

56.38

[55.92, 56.83]

57.89

[57.61, 58.17]

58.30

[57.92, 58.67]

58.88

[58.44, 59.31]

59.12

[58.66, 59.58]

1:00.19

[59.78, 1:00.61]

32

12&U

52.77

[52.33, 53.21]

53.27

[52.83, 53.71]

53.70

[53.27, 54.14]

54.69

[54.30, 55.07]

54.75

[54.31, 55.19]

55.10

[54.44, 55.75]

31

14&U

49.34

[49.08, 49.60]

49.47

[49.24, 49.71]

49.93

[49.66, 50.21]

50.39

[50.07, 50.71]

51.12

[50.83, 51.42]

51.17

[50.78, 51.56]

31

16&U

47.90

[47.45, 48.35]

48.62

[48.33, 48.91]

48.92

[48.60, 49.23]

49.06

[48.78, 49.34]

49.22

[48.80, 49.63]

49.68

[49.26, 50.10]

23

18&U

46.98

[46.68, 47.28]

47.38

[47.07, 47.70]

48.07

[47.64, 48.51]

16

1
0

Girls 4 x 400 m Relay

10&U

4:40.11 [4:36.66, 4:43.56]

4:49.99

[4:45.88, 4:54.11]

4:58.45

[4:54.29, 5:02.61]

5:03.44

[4:59.38, 5:07.50]

5:08.20

[5:03.98, 5:12.41] 5:12.19

[5:08.13, 5:16.25]

23

12&U

4:18.92 [4:15.52, 4:22.32]

4:25.68

[4:21.67, 4:29.70]

4:29.61

[4:25.81, 4:33.41]

4:33.44

[4:30.45, 4:36.44]

4:34.31

[4:31.44, 4:37.19] 4:36.68

[4:32.46, 4:40.90]

26

14&U

4:03.37 [4:00.22, 4:06.52]

4:04.57

[4:01.14, 4:08.00]

4:10.97

[4:07.38, 4:14.56]

4:12.65

[4:09.09, 4:16.22]

4:14.62

[4:11.28, 4:17.96] 4:16.53

[4:13.21, 4:19.86]

22

16&U

3:56.40 [3:53.85, 3:58.95]

4:01.42

[3:58.71, 4:04.13]

4:05.73

[4:02.90, 4:08.56]

4:08.79

[4:05.54, 4:12.05]

4:13.57

[4:07.71, 4:19.44] 4:17.06

[4:10.44, 4:23.68]

16

18&U

3:55.10 [3:51.58, 3:58.62]

4:00.79

[3:56.41, 4:05.18]

Note. PI = prediction interval; Indicates data unavailable for one or more years, therefore no prediction was made. a. Predicted Participants were calculated and rounded to the nearest whole number.

Table 3
Predicted Finishing Times and Number of Participants at the 2016 Games of Texas Track and Field Championships (Girls Middle Distance Events)
1st Place

Age
Group

Pred.

95% PI

2nd Place
Pred.

3rd Place

95% PI

Pred.

4th Place

95% PI

Pred.

r
e

5th Place

6th Place

Pred.

95% PI

Pred.

95% PI

Pred.

95% PI

Part.a

p
o

Girls 800 m Run

8&U

2:53.36

[2:49.71, 2:57.00]

2:56.73

[2:52.86, 3:00.60]

2:59.24

[2:55.48, 3:03.00]

3:02.54

[2:58.81, 3:06.28]

3:04.17

[3:00.77, 3:07.57]

3:05.92

[3:02.57, 3:09.27]

33

10&U

2:38.86

[2:36.43, 2:41.29]

2:41.21

[2:39.01, 2:43.41]

2:42.77

[2:40.88, 2:44.67]

2:43.91

[2:41.93, 2:45.89]

2:46.27

[2:44.15, 2:48.39]

2:47.91

[2:45.45, 2:50.38]

40

12&U

2:25.12

[2:23.56, 2:26.69]

2:28.33

[2:26.32, 2:30.35]

2:29.68

[2:28.10, 2:31.25]

2:32.26

[2:30.36, 2:34.17]

2:34.26

[2:32.59, 2:35.92]

2:34.60

[2:33.06, 2:36.13]

39

14&U

2:18.61

[2:17.26, 2:19.96]

2:19.73

[2:18.26, 2:21.20]

2:22.13

[2:21.15, 2:23.11]

2:23.95

[2:22.51, 2:25.40]

2:26.37

[2:24.80, 2:27.93]

2:26.65

[2:24.94, 2:28.35]

35

16&U

2:14.42

[2:12.26, 2:16.57]

2:19.60

[2:17.87, 2:21.34]

2:21.33

[2:19.95, 2:22.72]

2:23.65

[2:22.38, 2:24.93]

2:26.24

[2:24.45, 2:28.02]

2:27.90

[2:25.96, 2:29.85]

30

18&U

2:17.73

[2:16.05, 2:19.42]

2:20.76

[2:18.57, 2:22.95]

2:22.50

[2:20.17, 2:24.82]

16

o
d

Girls 1,600 m Run

n
ra

o
C
n

10&U

5:51.53

[5:47.23, 5:55.83]

5:55.76

[5:50.71, 6:00.80]

6:03.23

[5:59.51, 6:06.95]

6:06.80

[6:02.23, 6:11.37]

6:08.31

[6:04.74, 6:11.88]

6:10.95

[6:06.53, 6:15.37]

31

12&U

5:27.73

[5:22.82, 5:32.64]

5:34.64

[5:29.37, 5:39.90]

5:39.82

[5:35.76, 5:43.88]

5:43.06

[5:38.71, 5:47.41]

5:43.86

[5:39.23, 5:48.49]

5:46.45

[5:41.98, 5:50.92]

33

14&U

5:22.21

[5:18.00, 5:26.42]

5:26.72

[5:22.61, 5:30.82]

5:27.35

[5:23.16, 5:31.55]

5:31.88

[5:28.60, 5:35.16]

5:34.07

[5:30.08, 5:38.06]

5:35.41

[5:31.99, 5:38.83]

33

16&U

5:22.16

[5:16.49, 5:27.83]

5:27.60

[5:21.42, 5:33.79]

5:29.51

[5:24.16, 5:34.85]

5:31.06

[5:25.28, 5:36.83]

5:34.04

[5:27.69, 5:40.40]

5:36.67

[5:30.89, 5:42.46]

25

18&U

5:25.37

[5:20.02, 5:30.72]

5:37.68

[5:33.36, 5:41.99]

5:50.36

[5:44.70, 5:56.02]

5:55.27

[5:49.21, 6:01.34]

5:59.74

[5:53.22, 6:06.25]

13

B
6
5:41.81

[5:37.88, 5:45.75]

Girls 3,200 m Run

14&U

11:51.89

[11:37.48, 12:06.29]

12:01.24 [11:49.66, 12:12.83]

12:06.91 [11:55.22, 12:18.60]

12:15.05

[12:00.36, 12:29.74]

12:19.25

[12:04.26, 12:34.25]

12:26.94

[12:12.66, 12:41.23]

26

16&U

11:53.96

[11:39.30, 12:08.61]

12:13.72 [12:00.48, 12:26.96]

12:21.63 [12:08.59, 12:34.68]

12:38.02

[12:22.38, 12:53.66]

12:50.18

[12:33.27, 13:07.10]

12:54.79

[12:40.48, 13:09.11]

18

18&U

12:07.39

[11:52.49, 12:22.29]

12:36.99 [12:23.51, 12:50.47]

13:02.11 [12:44.63, 13:19.59]

13:41.77

[13:11.19, 14:12.36]

1
0

Note. PI = prediction interval; Indicates data unavailable for one or more years, therefore no prediction was made. a. Predicted Participants were calculated and rounded to the nearest whole number.

Table 4
Predicted Finishing Times and Number of Participants at the 2016 Games of Texas Track and Field Championships (Boys Sprint Events)
1st Place

Age
Group

Pred.

95% PI

2nd Place
Pred.

3rd Place

95% PI

Pred.

4th Place

95% PI

Pred.

5th Place

95% PI

Pred.

95% PI

[7.92, 8.08]

8.05

[7.97, 8.13]

6th Place

Pred.

95% PI

r
e

Part.a

[8.01, 8.17]

47

Pred.

Boys 50 m Dash
8&U

7.75

[7.67, 7.83]

7.81

[7.75, 7.88]

7.91

[7.84, 7.98]

8.00

Boys 100 m Dash

p
o

o
C
n

8.09

8&U

14.63

[14.40, 14.87]

14.66

[14.46, 14.87]

14.78

[14.58, 14.98]

14.84

[14.64, 15.04]

14.86

[14.63, 15.10]

14.95

[14.69, 15.20]

49

10&U

13.27

[13.12, 13.43]

13.28

[13.15, 13.41]

13.45

[13.33, 13.58]

13.64

[13.48, 13.79]

13.81

[13.64, 13.98]

13.85

[13.68, 14.03]

47

12&U

12.25

[12.10, 12.39]

12.30

[12.14, 12.46]

12.54

[12.38, 12.70]

12.71

[12.58, 12.85]

12.76

[12.63, 12.89]

12.80

[12.65, 12.95]

45

14&U

11.30

[11.20, 11.41]

11.47

[11.38, 11.55]

11.54

[11.45, 11.63]

11.56

[11.46, 11.65]

11.63

[11.54, 11.72]

11.70

[11.62, 11.79]

43

16&U

10.93

[10.82, 11.04]

11.10

[11.00, 11.19]

11.11

[11.02, 11.21]

11.18

[11.09, 11.28]

11.28

[11.18, 11.39]

11.30

[11.20, 11.41]

41

18&U

10.74

[10.63, 10.86]

10.84

[10.73, 10.94]

10.94

[10.83, 11.04]

10.97

[10.87, 11.08]

11.04

[10.95, 11.14]

33

n
ra

o
d

Boys 200 m Dash

8&U

29.54

[29.15, 29.92]

30.16

[29.78, 30.54]

30.53

[30.16, 30.90]

31.14

[30.72, 31.57]

46

10&U

27.31

[26.96, 27.66]

27.66

[27.33, 27.98]

28.01

[27.72, 28.31]

28.27

[27.99, 28.55]

28.64

[28.33, 28.95]

29.16

[28.85, 29.47]

46

12&U

25.03

[24.75, 25.32]

25.29

[24.97, 25.60]

25.72

[25.48, 25.95]

26.06

[25.87, 26.25]

26.16

[26.00, 26.32]

26.42

[26.16, 26.68]

43

14&U

23.13

[22.96, 23.31]

23.40

[23.22, 23.58]

23.41

[23.25, 23.58]

23.54

[23.35, 23.72]

23.83

[23.58, 24.07]

40

16&U

21.94

[21.76, 22.13]

22.30

[22.15, 22.45]

22.36

[22.24, 22.48]

22.61

[22.45, 22.77]

22.63

[22.44, 22.82]

42

18&U

21.56

[21.41, 21.72]

21.73

[21.53, 21.93]

21.91

[21.71, 22.10]

22.03

[21.85, 22.22]

22.11

[21.88, 22.35]

34

1
0

B
6

Boys 400 m Dash

8&U

1:05.87 [1:05.02, 1:06.72]

1:08.28

[1:07.23, 1:09.34]

1:09.54

[1:08.63, 1:10.44]

1:10.05

[1:09.33, 1:10.78]

1:10.15

[1:09.21, 1:11.08]

1:11.42

[1:09.83, 1:13.00]

44

10&U

1:00.56

[59.92, 1:01.21]

1:03.41

[1:02.66, 1:04.16]

1:07.73

[1:03.91, 1:11.54]

1:05.17

[1:04.43, 1:05.91]

1:06.14

[1:05.55, 1:06.73] 1:06.85

[1:06.10, 1:07.60]

43

12&U

57.30

[56.63, 57.97]

57.87

[57.32, 58.42]

58.87

[58.19, 59.55]

59.81

[59.10, 1:00.52]

1:00.39

[59.53, 1:01.24]

1:01.42

[1:00.62, 1:02.23]

43

14&U

51.44

[50.97, 51.90]

52.00

[51.52, 52.48]

52.55

[52.16, 52.94]

53.14

[52.61, 53.67]

54.63

[53.88, 55.37]

54.10

[53.52, 54.68]

40

16&U

48.83

[48.49, 49.18]

49.71

[49.35, 50.07]

50.14

[49.74, 50.54]

50.48

[50.03, 50.92]

50.91

[50.40, 51.42]

51.41

[50.74, 52.07]

40

18&U

47.74

[47.26, 48.21]

48.34

[47.95, 48.73]

49.05

[48.56, 49.54]

49.47

[49.02, 49.93]

33

Note. PI = prediction interval; Indicates data unavailable for one or more years, therefore no prediction was made. a. Predicted Participants were calculated and rounded to the nearest whole number.

Table 5
Predicted Finishing Times and Number of Participants at the 2016 Games of Texas Track and Field Championships (Boys Hurdle and Relay Events)
1st Place

Age
Group

Pred.

95% PI

2nd Place
Pred.

3rd Place

95% PI

Pred.

4th Place

95% PI

Pred.

5th Place

95% PI

Pred.

95% PI

[13.33, 13.79]

13.77

[13.46, 14.09]

6th Place

Pred.

95% PI

r
e

Part.a

14.06

[13.55, 14.57]

29

Pred.

Boys 80 m Hurdles
12&U

13.09

[12.85, 13.33]

13.38

[13.17, 13.60]

13.46

[13.23, 13.69]

13.56

Boys 110 m Hurdles

p
o

o
C
n

14&U

16.78

[16.31, 17.24]

17.14

[16.69, 17.59]

17.64

[17.19, 18.10]

17.76

[17.30, 18.22]

18.16

[17.70, 18.62]

18.32

[17.82, 18.81]

30

16&U

14.99

[14.79, 15.20]

15.25

[15.03, 15.46]

15.61

[15.40, 15.81]

15.78

[15.57, 15.98]

16.15

[15.86, 16.45]

16.35

[16.02, 16.69]

26

18&U

14.65

[14.42, 14.88]

14.71

[14.43, 14.98]

15.03

[14.77, 15.28]

20

Boys 300 m Hurdles

o
d

14&U

41.54

[41.13, 41.96]

42.71

[42.28, 43.13]

43.42

[43.07, 43.77]

43.90

[43.39, 44.41]

44.27

[43.71, 44.83]

30

16&U

38.80

[38.42, 39.19]

39.94

[39.49, 40.38]

40.42

[40.02, 40.82]

41.10

[40.85, 41.34]

41.95

[41.67, 42.23]

41.92

[41.24, 42.60]

30

18&U

38.41

[38.03, 38.79]

38.74

[38.24, 39.24]

24

n
ra

Boys 4 x 100 m Relay

8&U

59.80

[59.41, 1:00.19]

1:00.50

[1:00.08, 1:00.92]

1:01.71

[1:01.17, 1:02.25]

1:02.02

[1:01.32, 1:02.72]

33

10&U

54.54

[54.15, 54.93]

54.84

[54.44, 55.24]

54.32

[53.03, 55.62]

56.32

[55.94, 56.70]

32

12&U

49.99

[49.46, 50.52]

50.61

[50.29, 50.93]

51.11

[50.82, 51.40]

51.51

[51.23, 51.79]

52.16

[51.93, 52.39]

52.70

[52.41, 53.00]

31

14&U

45.27

[44.89, 45.66]

45.41

[45.04, 45.78]

45.80

[45.45, 46.15]

46.29

[45.92, 46.67]

46.73

[46.28, 47.17]

47.17

[46.78, 47.56]

24

16&U

42.93

[42.72, 43.13]

43.38

[43.19, 43.57]

44.49

[43.92, 45.06]

44.12

[43.86, 44.38]

44.42

[44.14, 44.71]

44.50

[44.12, 44.88]

26

18&U

41.52

[41.24, 41.79]

41.91

[41.58, 42.23]

42.20

[41.95, 42.44]

42.62

[42.36, 42.88]

42.83

[42.58, 43.08]

43.01

[42.70, 43.32]

21

1
0

B
6

Boys 4 x 400 m Relay

10&U

4:29.37 [4:25.84, 4:32.90]

4:43.37

[4:40.05, 4:46.69]

4:47.45

[4:45.03, 4:49.86]

4:49.25

[4:47.37, 4:51.14]

4:53.73

[4:51.77, 4:55.69] 4:58.97

[4:56.58, 5:01.36]

23

12&U

4:07.15 [4:04.40, 4:09.91]

4:13.97

[4:11.43, 4:16.51]

4:19.60

[4:17.83, 4:21.37]

4:20.22

[4:17.98, 4:22.46]

4:24.55

[4:22.15, 4:26.95] 4:26.03

[4:23.79, 4:28.28]

25

14&U

3:40.44 [3:37.60, 3:43.27]

3:43.47

[3:40.50, 3:46.45]

3:46.84

[3:43.83, 3:49.85]

3:50.53

[3:47.44, 3:53.62]

3:53.71

[3:50.62, 3:56.81] 3:54.19

[3:51.33, 3:57.06]

19

16&U

3:27.94 [3:26.47, 3:29.41]

3:28.22

[3:26.13, 3:30.30]

3:29.47

[3:27.63, 3:31.31]

3:32.88

[3:30.64, 3:35.13]

3:35.20

[3:33.23, 3:37.18] 3:36.50

[3:34.50, 3:38.50]

19

18&U

3:19.04 [3:16.79, 3:21.28]

3:19.75

[3:17.42, 3:22.08]

3:20.90

[3:17.89, 3:23.91]

3:22.70

[3:19.60, 3:25.79]

21

Note. PI = prediction interval; Indicates data unavailable for one or more years, therefore no prediction was made. a. Predicted Participants were calculated and rounded to the nearest whole number.

Table 6
Predicted Finishing Times and Number of Participants at the 2016 Games of Texas Track and Field Championships (Boys Middle Distance Events)
1st Place

Age
Group

Pred.

2nd Place

95% PI

Pred.

3rd Place

95% PI

Pred.

4th Place

95% PI

Pred.

5th Place

6th Place

Pred.

95% PI

Pred.

95% PI

Pred.

95% PI

Part.a

r
e

Boys 800 m Run

8&U

2:39.58

[2:36.78, 2:42.37]

2:47.33

[2:44.78, 2:49.88]

2:48.00

[2:45.75, 2:50.24]

2:49.18

[2:47.16, 2:51.20]

2:51.51

[2:48.98, 2:54.04]

2:54.15

[2:51.46, 2:56.83]

36

10&U

2:25.86

[2:24.30, 2:27.41]

2:29.01

[2:26.77, 2:31.25]

2:33.36

[2:31.51, 2:35.22]

2:35.24

[2:33.43, 2:37.06]

2:37.44

[2:35.17, 2:39.71]

2:40.45

[2:38.51, 2:42.39]

41

12&U

2:21.00

[2:19.63, 2:22.38]

2:23.35

[2:22.39, 2:24.30]

2:26.83

[2:25.22, 2:28.43]

2:27.89

[2:25.93, 2:29.85]

2:28.99

[2:27.18, 2:30.80]

2:29.80

[2:28.03, 2:31.58]

40

14&U

2:04.29

[2:03.01, 2:05.56]

2:06.04

[2:05.22, 2:06.85]

2:07.52

[2:06.51, 2:08.53]

2:08.90

[2:07.75, 2:10.04]

2:09.35

[2:08.20, 2:10.50]

2:10.97

[2:09.69, 2:12.26]

37

16&U

1:59.08

[1:58.03, 2:00.12]

1:59.89

[1:58.87, 2:00.91]

2:01.33

[2:00.53, 2:02.12]

2:02.82

[2:01.83, 2:03.80]

2:03.40

[2:02.35, 2:04.45]

2:04.75

[2:03.80, 2:05.70]

31

18&U

1:55.75

[1:54.49, 1:57.02]

1:57.26

[1:56.00, 1:58.53]

1:58.32

[1:57.06, 1:59.59]

1:58.98

[1:57.84, 2:00.11]

1:59.25

[1:58.01, 2:00.49]

1:59.51

[1:58.14, 2:00.89]

29

p
o

o
C
n

Boys 1,600 m Run

o
d

10&U

5:28.95

[5:24.74, 5:33.16]

5:35.88

[5:31.87, 5:39.90]

5:43.31

[5:40.83, 5:45.80]

5:46.03

[5:42.27, 5:49.79]

5:48.73

[5:44.49, 5:52.98]

5:51.44

[5:46.91, 5:55.97]

35

12&U

5:13.32

[5:08.88, 5:17.76]

5:17.14

[5:12.35, 5:21.94]

5:23.63

[5:19.42, 5:27.85]

5:26.87

[5:22.07, 5:31.67]

5:28.87

[5:24.47, 5:33.26]

5:31.16

[5:26.70, 5:35.62]

37

14&U

4:48.60

[4:45.88, 4:51.31]

4:53.95

[4:50.98, 4:56.93]

4:56.74

[4:53.78, 4:59.70]

4:59.59

[4:56.18, 5:03.00]

4:59.18

[4:56.17, 5:02.18]

5:02.06

[4:58.98, 5:05.15]

34

16&U

4:33.38

[4:30.55, 4:36.20]

4:36.06

[4:33.59, 4:38.53]

4:39.53

[4:37.65, 4:41.41]

4:41.89

[4:39.96, 4:43.83]

4:46.28

[4:43.72, 4:48.83]

4:48.04

[4:45.58, 4:50.50]

32

18&U

4:24.82

[4:22.19, 4:27.45]

4:27.36

[4:25.06, 4:29.66]

4:29.56

[4:27.21, 4:31.90]

4:31.87

[4:29.17, 4:34.57]

4:35.46

[4:32.96, 4:37.96]

4:37.36

[4:34.87, 4:39.85]

25

11:25.92

[11:16.03, 11:35.81]

27

24

10:21.27

[10:05.64, 10:36.90]

17

n
ra

Boys 3,200 m Run

14&U

10:39.17 [10:30.16, 10:48.17] 10:56.07

B
6

[10:45.54, 11:06.60]

11:02.60

[10:52.07, 11:13.12]

11:11.51

[11:02.48, 11:20.54]

[9:54.40, 10:18.24]

10:08.04

[9:54.17, 10:21.91]

16&U

18&U

9:49.65

[9:35.89, 10:03.41]

10:00.80

[9:48.03, 10:13.57]

1
0

10:06.32

11:24.38 [11:15.17, 11:33.59]

10:15.44 [10:01.32, 10:29.57]

Note. PI = prediction interval; Indicates data unavailable for one or more years, therefore no prediction was made. a. Predicted Participants were calculated and rounded to the nearest whole number.

Formulas Used

Finishing time predictions derived from year (x) and finishing times (y) at the 19992015 TAAF Games of Texas (n = 17).
Lower and Upper Prediction Limits

}|

{
t,v SEy
f (y) = m ln(x) + a
|
{z
}
n
| {z }
Time Prediction

(1)

Participants predictions derived from year (x) and number of participants (p) at the 19992015 Games of Texas (n = 17).
f (p) = m ln(p) + a

(2)