Study
In-depth knowledge for decision makers
80%
20%
Europe, US
global topics
8 billion
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global topics
8 billion
Consumers how to reach emerging market
consumerswith new strategies
Introduction
p4
p6
p 22
Conclusion
p 28
introduction
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Study 7
double over the next eight years, from USD 14 to 22 trillion. Per
capita consumer expenditure is forecast to reach USD 3,319 a year
in 2020. This growth will be largely driven by improved education
and rising incomes. In particular, BRIC countries will see consumer
spending grow from USD 7 to 11 trillion, Mercosur countries from
USD 2 to 3 trillion, and in the Middle East and North Africa from USD
1 to 2 trillion. Per capita consumer expenditure is forecast to grow
at least 3% annually in each region by 2020. Mercosur will see
thehighest per capita spending with USD 10,112, followed by the
BRICcountries with USD 3,619 and the Middle East and North
Africa withUSD3,615.
F1
14%
7%
7%
6%
66%
Source: OECD
* The "global middle class" is defined as households with daily expenditures between USD 10 and USD 100 per person.
F2
14
22
BRIC
7
11
2012
Mercosur
2
3
2020
Middle East and North Africa
Source: Euromonitor
1
2
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Bottom-of-the-pyramid consumption
Yet despite rising incomes and consumer expenditures, the
majority of people in developing nations continue to struggle. The
proportion of Nigerians living on less than two dollars a day is
currently 85%. In India the figure is 70%, in Indonesia 46%. Overall,
an estimated four billion people worldwide survive on two dollars
aday or less.
The poor are what we might call "bottom of the pyramid" con
sumers. Thanks to new technology and novel distribution
methods, they too have become a potentially profitable market
forcompanies. Consumer goods manufacturers are delivering
inexpensive, easy-to-use products to them using low-overhead
Annual per capita consumer spending by segment, real value, 2012-2020 (USD)
Food
Housing
Transport
Health
Fashion
Communication
Leisure
F3
CAGR
558
662
2.2%
399
574
4.7%
270
440
5.5%
133
219
6.4%
135
183
3.9%
100
175
7.3%
98
142
4.7%
Source: Euromonitor
Urbanization
F4
Since 2008, over half the world's population has been living in
cities. Enterprising companies will discover that urban landscapes
offer many new business prospects. Supply chains, trade,
transportation and Internet connections are expanding, often
rapidly, to serve ever more city dwellers.
Nigeria
India
will move to cities every day through 2030. Emerging markets will
see most of this migration. Between 2010 and 2030, the global
share of people inhabiting cities will climb from 45% to 55%. Most
will be in the developing world. Thus, 3.9 billion or 80% of 4.9
billion city dwellers worldwide will live in emerging and developing
countries as the world's total urban population grows by more
than 1.3 billion.
China
Indonesia
64
46
42
37
Source: Euromonitor
Study 13
F5
57
50
74
81
China
India
US
Nigeria
305
139
54
45
21
Potential solutions
These health and environmental challenges stimulate innovation.
For example, Swedish architect Anders Wilhelmson designed
"Peepoo", a personal, single-use, self-sanitizing, fully biode
gradable toilet that prevents feces from contaminating the
immediate surrounding area and ecosystem. After use, Peepoo
turns into valuable fertilizer that can improve livelihoods and
foodsecurity.
In India, 40% to 60% of the urban population live in poorlydeveloped,
unhygienic conditions. In an effort to improve standards, an
inventive Indian real estate company introduced a program to
offer small land parcels with decent infrastructure and with a
pricetagof just USD 6,500 each. The examples of successful
innovation don't stop there, either. Three years ago, Tata Motors
launched the world's cheapest car, priced at just EUR 1,500. The
company has now designed the Nano house, a 20 m2 coconut
andjute fiber unit that can be erected in just a week and is built to
last only a few years. Tata's plan is to offer affordable shelter to
poor people around the world. It believes that governmentsponsored mass residential developments for slum dwellers and
the homeless will be one of its biggest markets. In developing
theNano house, Tata consulted local decision-makers, ensuring
that the product met local requirements. The company is now
analyzing user feedback from a pilot project in rural India. It plans
toprice the new home at about USD 700 roughly what
industrialized world consumers might pay for a new iPad.
The design of low-cost housing also needs to take climate change
into account. A German initiative, ASH (Africa Sustainable House),
has developed the world's first low-cost, climate-friendly home
forAfrica and Asia. Delivered in containers, the units are con
structed on site in a single day. They are fitted with a solar module
for lighting and radio reception, and even include air conditioning.
Novel building materials can also make housing affordable.
Taiwanese architect Arthur Huang developed a method of creating
construction materials out of plastic waste. The EcoArk, built from
1.5 million plastic bricks, was shown in November 2010 at Taipei's
International Garden Festival. Even plastic bottles can be used
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F6
The pace of change is speeding up. Living standards and the built
environment are evolving faster than ever and markets are
increasingly diverse in terms of educational levels, incomes and
geographies. Consumer diversity creates a puzzle for marketing.
How can companies identify niches for their new products and
services? Their first step must be to analyze consumer habits and
brand values. With this in mind, Roland Berger designed a cus
tomizable tool, the RB Profiler, to measure how consumers
perceive brands. Using a specially developed questionnaire, the
RB Profiler investigates 20 fundamental values that influence
allaspects of customer behavior. The RB Profiler analyzes what
people's requirements are and how they view brands, generating
arange of consumer profiles. Companies can use these profiles
todevelop product positioning options and compare the perfor
mance of their current products with targets. At the same time, the
tool's intuitive format and statistical validation encourages organi
zational buy-in and efficient application in marketing.
China
Brazil
Russia
Mexico
Hong Kong
Malaysia
Chile
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
F7
27
10
8
4
3
3
2
1
1
1
Source: Interbrand
500 most valuable brands. China leads the pack, with 27 inter
nationally distributed brands, followed by Brazil, with 10 brands.
Inthe long term, brands from emerging markets are likely to
become more prominent in Europe as manufacturers shift their
attention from domestic to world markets. Products that are
F8
231
191
164
159
121
70
60
60
47
47
Source: Euromonitor
465
353
336
305
257
244
208
196
159
156
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F9
Costa Rica
64.0
top
ten
Vietnam
60.4
Colombia
59.8
Jamaica
58.5
Panama
57.8
El Salvador
58.9
Nicaragua
57.1
Belize
59.3
Guatemala
56.9
Venezuela
56.9
Hindustan Lever uses other techniques to build brand awareness. f9 We are seeing increasing efforts to measure well-being across the
globe. The London-based "Centre for Well-being" compiles a Happy
The company frequently employs street performers magicians,
Planet Index to record life expectancy, experienced well-being
singers, dancers and actors to promote soap and toothpaste.
andpeople's satisfaction with the environmental impact of the
Lever and Ogilvy Outreach, a marketing arm of Ogilvy & Mather,
goods and services consumed. Costa Rica scores highest, followed
recruits the local performers, adjusting their scripts in line with
by Vietnam. Most of the other top 10 are emerging countries in
local dialects, education levels and religions. A series of such
SouthAmerica. Germany and the United States, with their large
performances in northeastern India saw consumer awareness
ecological footprints, rank 46th and 105th respectively.
ofBreeze, a low-cost 2-in-1 soap, rise from 22% to 30%. A similar
program to promote Rin Shakti, a moderately priced detergent
barand powder brand, boosted recognition from 28% to 36% over f10 According to a recent goodpurpose study by Edelman, consumers
in "rapid growth economies" (RGEs) such as China, India,
asix-month period.
Indonesia, Malaysia, UAE and Brazil have much higher expec
tations of brands and corporations with regard to social issues. As
Increasing relevance of values and sustainability
the middle class grows and acquires more purchasing power,
consumers in RGEs demonstrate a commitment to "social
Religious values are important for many consumers. Increasing
purpose" across many different activities, such as buying, sharing,
numbers of religious people will drive the market for "valuesdonating and volunteering. This commitment is considerably
oriented" products. By 2030, when the global population is
stronger than that found for many consumers in "bear" markets
forecast to exceed 8 billion, approximately a quarter of people will
such as Western Europe.
be Muslim. Pakistan will likely overtake Indonesia as the world's
largest Islamic country, with a predominantly Muslim population
expected to exceed 256 million. Christianity will remain the world's
dominant religion, however, with the Christian population expected
to be 2.2 billion by 2030. Most new Christian converts will live in
emerging countries. Together, Islam and Christianity will account
for over half the global population (53%) by 2030. The impact
onconsumer preferences will be significant Muslim women's
fashion and non-pork meat products are two commonly cited
examples.
Values in a broader sense religious, environmental and social
will play a major role in consumers' purchase decisions and brand
loyalties. We are already seeing a strong move in some countries
to integrate non-economic values into their economic perspective.
Bhutan, for example, first formulated a new official measure of
living standards, Gross National Happiness (GNH), to measure
economic progress as early as 1979. The four pillars of GNH are:
Pursuing equitable and equal socio-economic development
Preserving and promoting cultural heritage
Conserving the environment
Ensuring good governance
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F10
Buying socially
responsible goods is
growing in importance
inemerging markets
On average, how
often do you buy a
brand that supports
a good cause?
Every 6 to 12 months
Bull markets*
62%
22%
Bear markets**
84%
56%
19%
37%
*) Consumers in emerging markets are "bullish" on purpose! They have high expectations of brands when it comes to social issues
**) Bear markets are industrialized countries. Here, the consumers don't have such high expectations of brands regarding social issues
Source: goodpurpose
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F11
Morocco
4,481,100
Algeria
3,826,940
Senegal
664,800
Nigeria
5,184,620
Ghana
1,436,380
Congo (Zaire)
795,300
Angola
516,780
South Africa
5,431,280
Tunisia
3,214,880
Egypt
11,658,000
Ethiopia
688,040
Uganda
485,480
Kenya
1,634,940
Tanzania
585,660
Source: Allfacebook.de
F12
f12 What lies behind this cultural divide? The principal reason is that
Indian companies
51%
Distribution Go "glocal"
Products must be delivered not only to emerging middle-class
consumers in cities but also to consumers in rural regions. In
2030, the share of the rural population in developing countries will
still be 45% (compared to 19% in developed countries). Companies
need to adapt their distribution strategies to local conditions. For
example, in countries where low-density rural areas predominate,
firms should prioritize specific geographical areas and work
closely with distribution partners. Often it will be too expensive to
supply remote areas directly, especially at the market-entry
stage.
Large and less developed markets such as China are best
approached city by city, using distributors to provide services
such as physical distribution and cash collection. Beiersdorf, for
example, serves smaller tier-2 or tier-3 cities through a number
oflocal and regional distributors and sub-distributors in China.
Distributors typically work on a non-exclusive basis.
Simple distribution technologies such as ordering products by cell
phone can help overcome deficiencies in the rural infrastructure.
US companies
11%
Source: Digital Capital Advisors
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Conclusion
Study 29
Author
Bernd Brunke
Partner and Member of the
Global Executive Committee, Berlin
bernd.brunke@rolandberger.com
William Downey
Partner, New York
william.downey@rolandberger.com
Co-Authors
Christophe Angoulvant
Partner, Paris
christophe.angoulvant@rolandberger.com
Duce Gotora
Project Manager, London
duce.gotora@rolandberger.com
Carolin Griese-Michels
Principal, Hamburg
wilfried.aulbur@rolandberger.com
carolin.griese@rolandberger.com
Andreas Bauer
Partner, Munich
Maren Hauptmann
Partner, Munich
andreas.bauer@rolandberger.com
maren.hauptmann@rolandberger.com
Study 31
Daniel Himmel
Project Manager, Berlin
Per I. Nilsson
Partner, Stockholm
daniel.himmel@rolandberger.com
per-i.nilsson@rolandberger.com
Nicklas Holgersson
Project Manager, London
nicklas.holgersson@rolandberger.com
verena.reichl@rolandberger.com
Fabian Huhle
Principal, Munich
Tina Wang
Partner, Beijing
fabian.huhle@rolandberger.com
tina.wang@rolandberger.com
johannes.klein@rolandberger.com
tim.zimmermann@rolandberger.com
Frank Lateur
Principal, Brussels
frank.lateur@rolandberger.com
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Study 33
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Study 35
Credits
Special thanks to
Our interviewees:
Siegfried Gnlen, CEO Hansgrohe AG
Manfred Grundke, General Partner Knauf Gips KG
Ruth Schaefer, CEO Ruth Schaefer Intercultural
Global Topics
project description
With our GLOBAL TOPICS initiative, we
assess the most pressing issues for
leaders in society, business and politics
and outline possible solutions.
Study 38