Acknowledge
First of all, I would like to say Alhamdulillah, for giving me
the strength and health to do this project work.
Not forgotten my parents for providing
everything, such as money, to buy anything that are
related to this project work and their advise, which is the
most needed for this project. Internet, books, computers
and all that. They also supported me and encouraged me
to complete this task so that I will not procrastinate in
doing it.
Then I would like to thank my teacher, Madam Zaiton for
guiding me and my friends throughout this project. We
had some difficulties in doing this task, but she taught us
patiently until we knew what to do. She tried and tried to
teach us until we understand what we supposed to do
with the project work.
Last but not least, my friends who were doing this
project with me and sharing our ideas. They were helpful
that when we combined and discussed together, we had
this task done.
Page | 2
Objective
The aims of carrying out this project work are:
to apply and adapt a variety of problem-solving
strategies to
solve problems;
to improve thinking skills;
to promote effective mathematical communication;
to develop mathematical knowledge through problem
solving
In a way that increases students interest and
confidence;
to use the language of mathematics to express
mathematical
ideas precisely;
to provide learning environment that stimulates and
enhances
effective learning;
to develop positive attitude towards mathematics.
Page | 3
Page | 4
PART ONE
Page | 5
Introduction
Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur
or has occurred. In mathematics the concept has been given an exact
meaning in probability theory, that is used extensively in such areas of study
as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science, and philosophy to
draw conclusions about the likelihood of potential events and the underlying
mechanics of complex systems.
Probability has a dual aspect: on the one hand the probability or likelihood of
hypotheses given the evidence for them and on the other hand the behavior
of stochastic processes such as the throwing of dice or coins. The study of
the former is historically older in, for example, the law of evidence, while the
mathematical treatment of dice began with the work of Pascal and Fermat in
the 1650s.
Probability is distinguished from statistics. While statistics deals with data
and inferences from it, (stochastic) probability deals with the stochastic
(random) processes which lie behind data or outcomes.
HISTORY - ORIGINS
Ancient and medieval law of evidence developed a grading of degrees of
proof, probabilities, presumptions and half-proof to deal with the
uncertainties of evidence in court. In Renaissance times, betting was
discussed in terms of odds such as "ten to one" and maritime insurance
premiums were estimated based on intuitive risks, but there was no theory
on how to calculate such odds or premiums.
The mathematical methods of probability arose in the correspondence of
Pierre de Fermat and Blas Pascal (1654) on such questions as the fair
division of the stake in an interrupted game of chance. Christian Huygens
(1657) gave a comprehensive treatment of the subject.
IMPORTANCE OF PROBABILITY IN LIFE
I will assume that you are referring to probability theory. Statistics is based
on an understanding of probability theory.
Many professions require basic understanding of statistics. So, in these
cases, it is important.
Page | 6
History of Probability
Etymology
Probable and likely and their cognates in other modern languages derive
from medieval learned Latin probabilis and verisimilis, deriving from Cicero
and generally applied to an opinion to mean plausible or generally approved.
Origins
Ancient and medieval law of evidence developed a grading of degrees of
proof, probabilities, presumptions and half-proof to deal with the
uncertainties of evidence in court. In Renaissance times, betting was
discussed in terms of odds such as "ten to one" and maritime insurance
premiums were estimated based on intuitive risks, but there was no theory
on how to calculate such odds or premiums.
The mathematical methods of probability arose in the correspondence of
Pierre de Fermat and Blas Pascal (1654) on such questions as the fair
division of the stake in an interrupted game of chance. Christiaan Huygens
(1657) gave a comprehensive treatment of the subject.
18th Century
Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi (posthumous, 1713) and Abraham de
Moivre's The Doctrine of Chances (1718) put probability on a sound
mathematical footing, showing how to calculate a wide range of complex
probabilities. Bernoulli proved a version of the fundamental law of large
numbers, which states that in a large number of trials, the average of the
outcomes is likely to be very close to the expected value - for example, in
1000 throws of a fair coin, it is likely that there are close to 500 heads (and
Page | 7
the larger the number of throws, the closer to half-and-half the proportion is
likely to be).
19th Century
The power of probabilistic methods in dealing with uncertainty was shown by
Gauss's determination of the orbit of Ceres from a few observations. The
theory of errors used the method of least squares to correct error-prone
observations, especially in astronomy, based on the assumption of a normal
distribution of errors to determine the most likely true value.
Towards the end of the nineteenth century, a major success of explanation in
terms of probabilities was the Statistical mechanics of Ludwig Boltzmann and
J. Willard Gibbs which explained properties of gases such as temperature in
terms of the random motions of large numbers of particles.
The field of the history of probability itself was established by Isaac
Todhunter's monumental History of the Mathematical Theory of Probability
from the Time of Pascal to that of Lagrange (1865).
20th Century
Probability and statistics became closely connected through the work on
hypothesis testing of R. A. Fisher and Jerzy Neyman, which is now widely
applied in biological and psychological experiments and in clinical trials of
drugs. A hypothesis, for example that a drug is usually effective, gives rise to
a probability distribution that would be observed if the hypothesis is true. If
observations approximately agree with the hypothesis, it is confirmed, if not,
the hypothesis is rejected.
The theory of stochastic processes broadened into such areas as Markov
processes and Brownian motion, the random movement of tiny particles
Page | 8
Page | 9
Applications
Two major applications of probability theory in everyday life are in risk
assessment and in trade on commodity markets. Governments typically
apply probabilistic methods in environmental regulation where it is called
"pathway analysis", often measuring well-being using methods that are
stochastic in nature, and choosing projects to undertake based on statistical
analyses of their probable effect on the population as a whole.
A good example is the effect of the perceived probability of any widespread
Middle East conflict on oil prices - which have ripple effects in the economy
as a whole. An assessment by a commodity trader that a war is more likely
vs. less likely sends prices up or down, and signals other traders of that
opinion. Accordingly, the probabilities are not assessed independently nor
necessarily very rationally. The theory of behavioral finance emerged to
describe the effect of such groupthink on pricing, on policy, and on peace
and conflict.
It can reasonably be said that the discovery of rigorous methods to assess
and combine probability assessments has had a profound effect on modern
society. Accordingly, it may be of some importance to most citizens to
understand how odds and probability assessments are made, and how they
contribute to reputations and to decisions, especially in a democracy.
Another significant application of probability theory in everyday life is
reliability. Many consumer products, such as automobiles and consumer
electronics, utilize reliability theory in the design of the product in order to
reduce the probability of failure. The probability of failure may be closely
associated with the product's warranty.
P a g e | 10
Theoretical probability
Definition of Theoretical Probability
Probability is a likelihood that an event will happen.
We can find the theoretical probability of an event using the following ratio:
Example 2
A bag contains 20 marbles. 15 of them are red and 5 of them are blue in
color. Find the probability of picking a red marble.
Lets first answer a few questions here:
If I am going to randomly pick a marble from the bag then what results can I have:
Ill either pick a red marble or a blue one.
My next question is what the chances of picking a red marble are:
P a g e | 11
There are 15 red marbles and just 5 blue marbles.
Its obvious that we have three times as many red marbles as blue marbles.
So, the chance of picking a red marble is more than that of the blue one.
Therefore, the probability of picking a red marble is:
Example 3
Find the probability of getting a sum of 7 when you roll two dice.
Two dice are being rolled. The possible outcomes are as follows:
Lets use the representation (a, b) for the outcomes where a = number on dice 1
and b = number on dice 2.
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,
1),
1),
1),
1),
1),
1),
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,
2),
2),
2),
2),
2),
2),
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,
3),
3),
3),
3),
3),
3),
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,
4),
4),
4),
4),
4),
4),
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,
5),
5),
5),
5),
5),
5),
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,
6),
6),
6),
6),
6),
6)
P a g e | 12
Empirical Probability
Empirical probability, also known as relative frequency, or experimental probability, is the ratio
of the number favorable outcomes to the total number of trials,[1][2] not in a sample space but in
an actual sequence of experiments. In a more general sense, empirical probability estimates
probabilities from experience and observation.[3] The phrase a posteriori probability has also been
used as an alternative to empirical probability or relative frequency.[4] This unusual usage of the
phrase is not directly related to Bayesian inference and not to be confused with its equally
occasional use to refer to posterior probability, which is something else.
In statistical terms, the empirical probability is an estimate of a probability. If modeling using a
binomial distribution is appropriate, it is the maximum likelihood estimate. It is the Bayesian
estimate for the same case if certain assumptions are made for the prior distribution of the
probability
An advantage of estimating probabilities using empirical probabilities is that this procedure is
relatively free of assumptions. For example, consider estimating the probability among a
population of men that they satisfy two conditions: (i) that they are over 6 feet in height; (ii) that
they prefer strawberry jam to raspberry jam. A direct estimate could be found by counting the
number of men who satisfy both conditions to give the empirical probability the combined
condition. An alternative estimate could be found by multiplying the proportion of men who are
over 6 feet in height with the proportion of men who prefer strawberry jam to raspberry jam, but
this estimate relies on the assumption that the two conditions are statistically independent.
A disadvantage in using empirical probabilities arises in estimating probabilities which are either
very close to zero, or very close to one. In these cases very large sample sizes would be needed
in order to estimate such probabilities to a good standard of relative accuracy. Here statistical
models can help, depending on the context, and in general one can hope that such models would
provide improvements in accuracy compared to empirical probabilities, provided that the
assumptions involved actually do hold. For example, consider estimating the probability that the
lowest of the daily-maximum temperatures at a site in February in any one year is less zero
degrees Celsius. A record of such temperatures in past years could be used to estimate this
probability. A model-based alternative would be to select of family of probability distributions
and fit it to the dataset contain past yearly values: the fitted distribution would provide an
alternative estimate of the required probability. This alternative method can provide an estimate
of the probability even if all values in the record are greater than zero.
P a g e | 13
10
15
35
12
Theoretical Probability of an event is the number of ways that the event can
occur, divided by the total number of outcomes. It is finding the probability
of events that come from a sample space of known equally likely outcomes.
P a g e | 14
of E.
n(S) = number of equally likely outcomes
of sample space S.
Example 2: Find the probability of tossing a fair die and getting an odd number.
Answer:
event E : tossing an odd number
outcomes in E: {1, 3, 5}
sample space S: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Solution:
P a g e | 15
P a g e | 16
PART TWO
P a g e | 17
1),
1),
1),
1),
1),
1),
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,
2),
2),
2),
2),
2),
2),
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,
3),
3),
3),
3),
3),
3),
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,
4),
4),
4),
4),
4),
4),
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,
5),
5),
5),
5),
5),
5),
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,
6),
6),
6),
6),
6),
6)}
P a g e | 18
PART THREE
P a g e | 19
Table 1 show the sum of all dots on both turned-up faces when
two dice are tossed simultaneously.
Sum of dots on
both turned-up
faces (x)
2
Possible outcomes
Probability, P(x)
(1,1)
1
36
(1,2),(2,1)
2
36
(1,3),(2,2),(3,1)
3
36
(1,4),(2,3),(3,2),(4,1)
4
36
5
36
(1,5),(2,4),(3,3),(4,2),
(5,1)
(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),
(5,2),(6,1)
(2,6),(3,5),(4,4),(5,3),
(6,2)
(3,6),(4,5),(6,3),(5,4)
10
(4,6),(5,5),(6,4)
3
36
11
(5,6),(6,5)
2
36
12
(6,6)
1
36
7
8
TABLE 1
6
36
5
36
4
36
P a g e | 20
P (A) = n( S)
30
36
9 17
+
36 36
26
36
P a g e | 21
D = {The sum of the two numbers are even and both numbers
are prime)
= {(1,1),(1,3),(1,5),(2,2),(2,4),(2,6),(3,1),(3,3),(3,5),(4,2),(4,4),
(4,6),(5,1),(5,3),
(5,5),(6,2),(6,4),(6,6)} {(2,3),(2,5),(3,2),(3,3),(3,5),(5,2),
(5,3),(5,5)}
P (D) =
18 8
36 36
1
9
P a g e | 22
PART FOUR
P a g e | 23
fx
N
301
= 50
=6.02
- Variance
2
fx
x 2
2185
2
6.02
50
=7.4596
- Standard deviation =
f x2 x 2
N
Frequency (f)
3
8
6
7
9
3
2
4
4
3
1
P a g e | 24
= 7.4596
=2.731226831
b) New mean value if the number of tosses is increased to 100
times =
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
6
9
11
12
13
10
7
12
7
6
7
f =
fx
100
12
27
44
60
78
70
56
108
70
66
84
fx =675
fx 2
24
81
176
300
468
490
448
972
700
726
1008
f x 2 =5393
P a g e | 25
- mean =
fx
N
675
= 100
- Variance=
= 6.75
f x 2 x 2
N
5363
2
= 100 6.75
=8.3675
- Standard deviation =
f x2 x 2
N
=2.892663133
The prediction is proven.
P a g e | 26
PART FIVE
P a g e | 27
When two dice are tossed simultaneously, the actual mean and variance of
the sum of all dots on the turned-up faces can be determined by using the
formulae below:
a) Based on Table 1, the actual mean, the variance and the standard
deviation of the sum of all dots on the turned-up faces are determined
by using the formulae given.
x
x2
P(x)
x P(x)
1
18
x 2 P(x)
1
36
1
9
2
36
1
6
1
2
16
3
36
1
3
4
3
25
4
36
5
9
25
9
36
5
36
5
6
49
6
36
7
6
49
6
64
5
36
10
9
160
3
81
4
36
10
100
3
36
5
6
25
3
11
121
2
36
11
18
121
18
12
144
1
36
1
3
P a g e | 28
Mean=7
Variance=
1787
2
7
18
=50.27777778
Standard deviation=
50.277777778
=7.090682462
b)
Table below shows the comparison of mean, variance and standard deviation of part 4 and part 5.
Mean
Variance
Standard Deviation
PART 4
n=50
6.02
7.4596
2.731226831
PART 5
n=100
6.75
8.3675
2.892663133
7.00
50.27777778
7.090682462
We can see that, the mean, variance and standard deviation that we obtained through experiment
in part 4 are different but close to the theoretical value in part 5.
For mean, when the number of trial increased from n=50 to n=100, its value get closer (from
6.02 to 6.75) to the theoretical value. This is in accordance to the Law of Large Number. We will
discuss Law of Large Number in next section.
Nevertheless, the empirical variance and empirical standard deviation that we obtained i part 4
get further from the theoretical value in part 5. This violates the Law of Large Number. This is
probably due to
a. The sample (n=100) is not large enough to see the change of value of mean, variance and
standard deviation.
b. Law of Large Number is not an absolute law. Violation of this law is still possible though
the probability is relative low.
In conclusion, the empirical mean, variance and standard deviation can be different from the
P a g e | 29
theoretical value. When the number of trial (number of sample) getting bigger, the empirical
value should get closer to the theoretical value. However, violation of this rule is still possible,
especially when the number of trial (or sample) is not large enough.
Conjecture: As the number of toss, n, increases, the mean will get closer to 7. 7 is the theoretical
mean.
Image below support this conjecture where we can see that, after 500 toss, the theoretical mean
become very close to the theoretical mean, which is 3.5. (Take note that this is experiment of
tossing 1 die, but not 2 dice as what we do in our experiment)
P a g e | 30
P a g e | 31
FURTHER
EXPLORATION
P a g e | 32
P a g e | 33
that the LLN only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of
observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of
observations will converge to the expected value or that a streak of one
value will immediately be "balanced" by the others. See the Gambler's
fallacy.
P a g e | 34
REFLECTION
P a g e | 35
BE HELPFUL
BE A HARDWORKING STUDENT
BE PATIENT
ALWAYS CONFIDENT
P a g e | 36
P a g e | 37
CONCLUSION
P a g e | 38
Variance,
fx
N
, or
f x2
=
x 2
2
Standard deviation,
x = x P( x)
, or
=
2
2
x P(x ) x
2=
f x 2 x
N
, or
x 2 P(x ) x 2
=