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Acknowledge
First of all, I would like to say Alhamdulillah, for giving me
the strength and health to do this project work.
Not forgotten my parents for providing
everything, such as money, to buy anything that are
related to this project work and their advise, which is the
most needed for this project. Internet, books, computers
and all that. They also supported me and encouraged me
to complete this task so that I will not procrastinate in
doing it.
Then I would like to thank my teacher, Madam Zaiton for
guiding me and my friends throughout this project. We
had some difficulties in doing this task, but she taught us
patiently until we knew what to do. She tried and tried to
teach us until we understand what we supposed to do
with the project work.
Last but not least, my friends who were doing this
project with me and sharing our ideas. They were helpful
that when we combined and discussed together, we had
this task done.

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Objective
The aims of carrying out this project work are:
to apply and adapt a variety of problem-solving
strategies to
solve problems;
to improve thinking skills;
to promote effective mathematical communication;
to develop mathematical knowledge through problem
solving
In a way that increases students interest and
confidence;
to use the language of mathematics to express
mathematical
ideas precisely;
to provide learning environment that stimulates and
enhances
effective learning;
to develop positive attitude towards mathematics.

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PART ONE

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Introduction
Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur
or has occurred. In mathematics the concept has been given an exact
meaning in probability theory, that is used extensively in such areas of study
as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science, and philosophy to
draw conclusions about the likelihood of potential events and the underlying
mechanics of complex systems.
Probability has a dual aspect: on the one hand the probability or likelihood of
hypotheses given the evidence for them and on the other hand the behavior
of stochastic processes such as the throwing of dice or coins. The study of
the former is historically older in, for example, the law of evidence, while the
mathematical treatment of dice began with the work of Pascal and Fermat in
the 1650s.
Probability is distinguished from statistics. While statistics deals with data
and inferences from it, (stochastic) probability deals with the stochastic
(random) processes which lie behind data or outcomes.
HISTORY - ORIGINS
Ancient and medieval law of evidence developed a grading of degrees of
proof, probabilities, presumptions and half-proof to deal with the
uncertainties of evidence in court. In Renaissance times, betting was
discussed in terms of odds such as "ten to one" and maritime insurance
premiums were estimated based on intuitive risks, but there was no theory
on how to calculate such odds or premiums.
The mathematical methods of probability arose in the correspondence of
Pierre de Fermat and Blas Pascal (1654) on such questions as the fair
division of the stake in an interrupted game of chance. Christian Huygens
(1657) gave a comprehensive treatment of the subject.
IMPORTANCE OF PROBABILITY IN LIFE
I will assume that you are referring to probability theory. Statistics is based
on an understanding of probability theory.
Many professions require basic understanding of statistics. So, in these
cases, it is important.

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Probability theory goes beyond mathematics. It involves logic and reasoning


abilities. Marketing and politics have one thing in common, biased statistics. I
believe since you are exposed to so many statistics, a basic understanding of
this area allows more critical thinking. The book "How to lie with statistics" is
a classic and still in print.
So, while many people would probably say that probability theory has little
importance in their lives, perhaps in some cases if they knew more, it would
have more importance.

History of Probability
Etymology
Probable and likely and their cognates in other modern languages derive
from medieval learned Latin probabilis and verisimilis, deriving from Cicero
and generally applied to an opinion to mean plausible or generally approved.

Origins
Ancient and medieval law of evidence developed a grading of degrees of
proof, probabilities, presumptions and half-proof to deal with the
uncertainties of evidence in court. In Renaissance times, betting was
discussed in terms of odds such as "ten to one" and maritime insurance
premiums were estimated based on intuitive risks, but there was no theory
on how to calculate such odds or premiums.
The mathematical methods of probability arose in the correspondence of
Pierre de Fermat and Blas Pascal (1654) on such questions as the fair
division of the stake in an interrupted game of chance. Christiaan Huygens
(1657) gave a comprehensive treatment of the subject.

18th Century
Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi (posthumous, 1713) and Abraham de
Moivre's The Doctrine of Chances (1718) put probability on a sound
mathematical footing, showing how to calculate a wide range of complex
probabilities. Bernoulli proved a version of the fundamental law of large
numbers, which states that in a large number of trials, the average of the
outcomes is likely to be very close to the expected value - for example, in
1000 throws of a fair coin, it is likely that there are close to 500 heads (and

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the larger the number of throws, the closer to half-and-half the proportion is
likely to be).

19th Century
The power of probabilistic methods in dealing with uncertainty was shown by
Gauss's determination of the orbit of Ceres from a few observations. The
theory of errors used the method of least squares to correct error-prone
observations, especially in astronomy, based on the assumption of a normal
distribution of errors to determine the most likely true value.
Towards the end of the nineteenth century, a major success of explanation in
terms of probabilities was the Statistical mechanics of Ludwig Boltzmann and
J. Willard Gibbs which explained properties of gases such as temperature in
terms of the random motions of large numbers of particles.
The field of the history of probability itself was established by Isaac
Todhunter's monumental History of the Mathematical Theory of Probability
from the Time of Pascal to that of Lagrange (1865).

20th Century
Probability and statistics became closely connected through the work on
hypothesis testing of R. A. Fisher and Jerzy Neyman, which is now widely
applied in biological and psychological experiments and in clinical trials of
drugs. A hypothesis, for example that a drug is usually effective, gives rise to
a probability distribution that would be observed if the hypothesis is true. If
observations approximately agree with the hypothesis, it is confirmed, if not,
the hypothesis is rejected.
The theory of stochastic processes broadened into such areas as Markov
processes and Brownian motion, the random movement of tiny particles

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suspended in a fluid. That provided a model for the study of random


fluctuations in stock markets, leading to the use of sophisticated probability
models in mathematical finance, including such successes as the widelyused Black-Scholes formula for the valuation of options.
The twentieth century also saw long-running disputes on the interpretations
of probability. In the mid-century frequentism was dominant, holding that
probability means long-run relative frequency in a large number of trials. At
the end of the century there was some revival of the Bayesian view,
according to which the fundamental notion of probability is how well a
proposition is supported by the evidence for it.
The mathematical treatment of probabilities, especially when there are
infinitely many possible outcomes, was facilitated by Kolmogorov's axioms
(1931).

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Applications
Two major applications of probability theory in everyday life are in risk
assessment and in trade on commodity markets. Governments typically
apply probabilistic methods in environmental regulation where it is called
"pathway analysis", often measuring well-being using methods that are
stochastic in nature, and choosing projects to undertake based on statistical
analyses of their probable effect on the population as a whole.
A good example is the effect of the perceived probability of any widespread
Middle East conflict on oil prices - which have ripple effects in the economy
as a whole. An assessment by a commodity trader that a war is more likely
vs. less likely sends prices up or down, and signals other traders of that
opinion. Accordingly, the probabilities are not assessed independently nor
necessarily very rationally. The theory of behavioral finance emerged to
describe the effect of such groupthink on pricing, on policy, and on peace
and conflict.
It can reasonably be said that the discovery of rigorous methods to assess
and combine probability assessments has had a profound effect on modern
society. Accordingly, it may be of some importance to most citizens to
understand how odds and probability assessments are made, and how they
contribute to reputations and to decisions, especially in a democracy.
Another significant application of probability theory in everyday life is
reliability. Many consumer products, such as automobiles and consumer
electronics, utilize reliability theory in the design of the product in order to
reduce the probability of failure. The probability of failure may be closely
associated with the product's warranty.

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Theoretical probability
Definition of Theoretical Probability
Probability is a likelihood that an event will happen.
We can find the theoretical probability of an event using the following ratio:

Lets do a couple of examples.


Solved Examples on Theoretical Probability
Example 1
If we toss a fair coin, what is the probability that a tail will show up?
Solution:
Tossing a tail is the favorable outcome here.
When you toss a coin there are only 2 possible outcomes: a Head or a Tail
So the options for tossing a tail are 1 out of 2.
We can also represent probability as a decimal or as a percent.

Example 2
A bag contains 20 marbles. 15 of them are red and 5 of them are blue in
color. Find the probability of picking a red marble.
Lets first answer a few questions here:
If I am going to randomly pick a marble from the bag then what results can I have:
Ill either pick a red marble or a blue one.
My next question is what the chances of picking a red marble are:

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There are 15 red marbles and just 5 blue marbles.
Its obvious that we have three times as many red marbles as blue marbles.
So, the chance of picking a red marble is more than that of the blue one.
Therefore, the probability of picking a red marble is:

Example 3
Find the probability of getting a sum of 7 when you roll two dice.
Two dice are being rolled. The possible outcomes are as follows:
Lets use the representation (a, b) for the outcomes where a = number on dice 1
and b = number on dice 2.
(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

1),
1),
1),
1),
1),
1),

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

2),
2),
2),
2),
2),
2),

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

3),
3),
3),
3),
3),
3),

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

4),
4),
4),
4),
4),
4),

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

5),
5),
5),
5),
5),
5),

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

6),
6),
6),
6),
6),
6)

There are 36 possible outcomes in all.


The question is when you roll two dice, what are the chances of getting a
sum of 7?
From the list above identify the pairs with outcomes that add up to 7.
Lets highlight them this way:
(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6),
(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6),
(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6),
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6),
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)
Observe that the pairs along the main diagonal add up to 7. There are 6 such pairs.
So, the probability of getting a sum of 7 when we roll two dice is:

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Empirical Probability
Empirical probability, also known as relative frequency, or experimental probability, is the ratio
of the number favorable outcomes to the total number of trials,[1][2] not in a sample space but in
an actual sequence of experiments. In a more general sense, empirical probability estimates
probabilities from experience and observation.[3] The phrase a posteriori probability has also been
used as an alternative to empirical probability or relative frequency.[4] This unusual usage of the
phrase is not directly related to Bayesian inference and not to be confused with its equally
occasional use to refer to posterior probability, which is something else.
In statistical terms, the empirical probability is an estimate of a probability. If modeling using a
binomial distribution is appropriate, it is the maximum likelihood estimate. It is the Bayesian
estimate for the same case if certain assumptions are made for the prior distribution of the
probability
An advantage of estimating probabilities using empirical probabilities is that this procedure is
relatively free of assumptions. For example, consider estimating the probability among a
population of men that they satisfy two conditions: (i) that they are over 6 feet in height; (ii) that
they prefer strawberry jam to raspberry jam. A direct estimate could be found by counting the
number of men who satisfy both conditions to give the empirical probability the combined
condition. An alternative estimate could be found by multiplying the proportion of men who are
over 6 feet in height with the proportion of men who prefer strawberry jam to raspberry jam, but
this estimate relies on the assumption that the two conditions are statistically independent.
A disadvantage in using empirical probabilities arises in estimating probabilities which are either
very close to zero, or very close to one. In these cases very large sample sizes would be needed
in order to estimate such probabilities to a good standard of relative accuracy. Here statistical
models can help, depending on the context, and in general one can hope that such models would
provide improvements in accuracy compared to empirical probabilities, provided that the
assumptions involved actually do hold. For example, consider estimating the probability that the
lowest of the daily-maximum temperatures at a site in February in any one year is less zero
degrees Celsius. A record of such temperatures in past years could be used to estimate this
probability. A model-based alternative would be to select of family of probability distributions
and fit it to the dataset contain past yearly values: the fitted distribution would provide an
alternative estimate of the required probability. This alternative method can provide an estimate
of the probability even if all values in the record are greater than zero.

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Empirical and Theoretical


Probability
Empirical Probability of an event is an "estimate" that the event will happen
based on how often the event occurs after collecting data or running an
experiment (in a large number of trials). It is based specifically on direct
observations or experiences.

Empirical Probability Formula

P (E) = probability that an event, E, will


occur.
Top = number of ways the specific event
occurs.
Bottom = number of ways the experiment
could occur.

Example: A survey was conducted to


determine students' favorite breeds of
dogs. Each student chose only one
breed.
Pit
Do Colli Spani La Box - Oth
g
e
el
b er bul er
l
#

10

15

35

12

What is the probability that a student's


favorite dog breed is Lab?
Answer: 35 out of the 85 students
chose Lab. The probability is

Theoretical Probability of an event is the number of ways that the event can
occur, divided by the total number of outcomes. It is finding the probability
of events that come from a sample space of known equally likely outcomes.

Theoretical Probability Formula

P (E) = probability that an event, E, will


occur.
n(E) = number of equally likely outcomes

Example 1: Find the probability of


rolling a six on a fair die.
Answer: The sample space for rolling is
die is 6 equally likely results: {1, 2, 3,
4, 5, 6}.
The probability of rolling a 6 is one out
of 6 or

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of E.
n(S) = number of equally likely outcomes
of sample space S.
Example 2: Find the probability of tossing a fair die and getting an odd number.
Answer:
event E : tossing an odd number
outcomes in E: {1, 3, 5}
sample space S: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Comparing Empirical and


Theoretical Probabilities
Sum of the rolls of
two dice

Karen and Jason roll two dice 50 times and


3, 5, 5, 4, 6, 7, 7, 5,
record their results in the accompanying chart.
9, 10,
12, 9, 6, 5, 7, 8, 7, 4,
1.) What is their empirical probability of
11, 6,
rolling a 7?
8, 8, 10, 6, 7, 4, 4, 5,
2.) What is the theoretical probability of
7, 9,
rolling a 7?
9, 7, 8, 11, 6, 5, 4, 7,
3.) How do the empirical and theoretical
7, 4,
probabilities compare?
3, 6, 7, 7, 7, 8, 6, 7,
8, 9

Solution:

1.) Empirical probability (experimental probability or


observed probability) is 13/50 = 26%.
2.) Theoretical probability (based upon what is
possible when working with two dice) = 6/36 = 1/6
= 16.7% (check out the table at the right of possible
sums when rolling two dice).
3.) Karen and Jason rolled more 7's than would be
expected theoretically.

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PART TWO

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a) My friends and I are playing Monopoly. At the beginner, each


of us will toss a die once. The player who obtains the highest
number will start the game. The possible outcomes are:
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
b) Instead of one dice, two dice can also be tossed
simultaneously by each player. The player will move the
token according to the sum of all dots on both turned-up
faces. For example, if the two dice are tossed simultaneously
and "2" appears on one die and "3" appears on the other,
the outcome of the toss is (2, 3). Hence, the player shall
move the token 5 spaces. The possible outcomes when two
dice are tossed simultaneously:
{(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

1),
1),
1),
1),
1),
1),

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

2),
2),
2),
2),
2),
2),

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

3),
3),
3),
3),
3),
3),

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

4),
4),
4),
4),
4),
4),

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

5),
5),
5),
5),
5),
5),

(1,
(2,
(3,
(4,
(5,
(6,

6),
6),
6),
6),
6),
6)}

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PART THREE

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Table 1 show the sum of all dots on both turned-up faces when
two dice are tossed simultaneously.
Sum of dots on
both turned-up
faces (x)
2

Possible outcomes

Probability, P(x)

(1,1)

1
36

(1,2),(2,1)

2
36

(1,3),(2,2),(3,1)

3
36

(1,4),(2,3),(3,2),(4,1)

4
36

5
36

(1,5),(2,4),(3,3),(4,2),
(5,1)
(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),
(5,2),(6,1)
(2,6),(3,5),(4,4),(5,3),
(6,2)
(3,6),(4,5),(6,3),(5,4)

10

(4,6),(5,5),(6,4)

3
36

11

(5,6),(6,5)

2
36

12

(6,6)

1
36

7
8

TABLE 1

6
36
5
36
4
36

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A = {the two numbers are not the same}


= {(1,2),(2,1),(1,3),(3,1), (1,4),(2,3),(3,2),(4,1),(1,5),(2,4),(4,2),
(5,1),
(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1), (2,6),(3,5),(5,3),
(6,2), (3,6),(4,5),(6,3),(5,4), (4,6),(6,4), (5,6),(6,5)}
n( A)

P (A) = n( S)

30
36

B = {the product of the two numbers is greater than 36}


= { }
C = {Both numbers are prime or the difference between two
numbers is odd)
={(2,2),(2,3),(2,5),(3,2),(3,3),(3,5),(5,2),(5,3),(5,5)}
{(1,2),(1,4),(1,6), (2,3),(2,5),(3,2),(3,4),(3,6),(4,1),(4,3),(4,5),
(5,2),(5,4),(5,6),(6,1),(6,3),(6,5)}
P(C)

9 17
+
36 36

26
36

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D = {The sum of the two numbers are even and both numbers
are prime)
= {(1,1),(1,3),(1,5),(2,2),(2,4),(2,6),(3,1),(3,3),(3,5),(4,2),(4,4),
(4,6),(5,1),(5,3),
(5,5),(6,2),(6,4),(6,6)} {(2,3),(2,5),(3,2),(3,3),(3,5),(5,2),
(5,3),(5,5)}
P (D) =

18 8

36 36
1
9

P a g e | 22

PART FOUR

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a) An activity was conducted by tossing two dice


simultaneously 50 times. The sums of all dots on both
turned-up faces were observed. The frequency table is
completed below.
Sum of the two numbers (x)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
TABLE 2
- mean =

fx
N
301

= 50

=6.02
- Variance

2
fx

x 2

2185
2
6.02
50

=7.4596
- Standard deviation =

f x2 x 2
N

Frequency (f)
3
8
6
7
9
3
2
4
4
3
1

P a g e | 24

= 7.4596
=2.731226831
b) New mean value if the number of tosses is increased to 100
times =

c) The prediction in (b) is tested by continuing Activity 3(a) until


the total number of tosses is 100 times. The value of
(i) mean;
(ii) variance; and
(iii) standard deviation
of the new data is estimated.
x

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

6
9
11
12
13
10
7
12
7
6
7

f =

fx

100

12
27
44
60
78
70
56
108
70
66
84
fx =675

fx 2

24
81
176
300
468
490
448
972
700
726
1008
f x 2 =5393

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- mean =

fx
N

675
= 100

- Variance=

= 6.75

f x 2 x 2
N

5363
2
= 100 6.75

=8.3675
- Standard deviation =

f x2 x 2
N

=2.892663133
The prediction is proven.

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PART FIVE

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When two dice are tossed simultaneously, the actual mean and variance of
the sum of all dots on the turned-up faces can be determined by using the
formulae below:

a) Based on Table 1, the actual mean, the variance and the standard

deviation of the sum of all dots on the turned-up faces are determined
by using the formulae given.
x

x2

P(x)

x P(x)

1
18

x 2 P(x)

1
36

1
9

2
36

1
6

1
2

16

3
36

1
3

4
3

25

4
36

5
9

25
9

36

5
36

5
6

49

6
36

7
6

49
6

64

5
36

10
9

160
3

81

4
36

10

100

3
36

5
6

25
3

11

121

2
36

11
18

121
18

12

144

1
36

1
3

P a g e | 28

Mean=7
Variance=

1787
2
7
18

=50.27777778
Standard deviation=

50.277777778

=7.090682462
b)
Table below shows the comparison of mean, variance and standard deviation of part 4 and part 5.

Mean
Variance
Standard Deviation

PART 4
n=50
6.02
7.4596
2.731226831

PART 5
n=100
6.75
8.3675
2.892663133

7.00
50.27777778
7.090682462

We can see that, the mean, variance and standard deviation that we obtained through experiment
in part 4 are different but close to the theoretical value in part 5.
For mean, when the number of trial increased from n=50 to n=100, its value get closer (from
6.02 to 6.75) to the theoretical value. This is in accordance to the Law of Large Number. We will
discuss Law of Large Number in next section.
Nevertheless, the empirical variance and empirical standard deviation that we obtained i part 4
get further from the theoretical value in part 5. This violates the Law of Large Number. This is
probably due to
a. The sample (n=100) is not large enough to see the change of value of mean, variance and
standard deviation.
b. Law of Large Number is not an absolute law. Violation of this law is still possible though
the probability is relative low.

In conclusion, the empirical mean, variance and standard deviation can be different from the

P a g e | 29

theoretical value. When the number of trial (number of sample) getting bigger, the empirical
value should get closer to the theoretical value. However, violation of this rule is still possible,
especially when the number of trial (or sample) is not large enough.

c) The range of the mean


6 mean 7

Conjecture: As the number of toss, n, increases, the mean will get closer to 7. 7 is the theoretical
mean.
Image below support this conjecture where we can see that, after 500 toss, the theoretical mean
become very close to the theoretical mean, which is 3.5. (Take note that this is experiment of
tossing 1 die, but not 2 dice as what we do in our experiment)

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P a g e | 31

FURTHER
EXPLORATION

P a g e | 32

Law of Large Numbers


In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that
describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of
times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large
number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to
become closer as more trials are performed.
For example, a single roll of a six-sided die produces one of the numbers 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, each with equal probability. Therefore, the expected value of a
single die roll is
1+2+3+ 4+ 5+6
=3.5
6
According to the law of large numbers, if a large number of dice are rolled,
the average of their values (sometimes called the sample mean) is likely to
be close to 3.5, with the accuracy increasing as more dice are rolled.
Similarly, when a fair coin is flipped once, the expected value of the number
of heads is equal to one half. Therefore, according to the law of large
numbers, the proportion of heads in a large number of coin flips should be
roughly one half. In particular, the proportion of heads after n flips will almost
surely converge to one half as n approaches infinity.
Though the proportion of heads (and tails) approaches half, almost surely the
absolute (nominal) difference in the number of heads and tails will become
large as the number of flips becomes large. That is, the probability that the
absolute difference is a small number approaches zero as number of flips
becomes large. Also, almost surely the ratio of the absolute difference to
number of flips will approach zero. Intuitively, expected absolute difference
grows, but at a slower rate than the number of flips, as the number of flips
grows.
The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term results for
random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin
of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage
over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually
be overcome by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember

P a g e | 33

that the LLN only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of
observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of
observations will converge to the expected value or that a streak of one
value will immediately be "balanced" by the others. See the Gambler's
fallacy.

P a g e | 34

REFLECTION

P a g e | 35

TEAM WORK IS IMPORTANT

BE HELPFUL

ALWYS READY TO LEARN NEW THINGS

BE A HARDWORKING STUDENT

BE PATIENT

ALWAYS CONFIDENT

P a g e | 36

P a g e | 37

CONCLUSION

P a g e | 38

As a conclusion, now I know;


The history of probability from 18th century to 20th
century,
How to apply theory of probability in daily life and its
importance,
Two categories of probability: empirical probability
and theoretical probability and their differences,
How to conduct a dice-tossing activity to find its
probability,
How to calculate the probability,
How to calculate mean, variance and standard
deviation using formula:
Mean,

Variance,

fx
N

, or

f x2

=
x 2
2

Standard deviation,

x = x P( x)

, or
=

2
2
x P(x ) x
2=

f x 2 x
N

, or

x 2 P(x ) x 2
=

About Law of Large Number (LLN) and its relation in


this project work,
Moral values obtained from this project work.

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