Turkey - Gross Domestic Product, Outlook 2016/2017

By Eduardo Petazze
June 11, 2016
Calendar adjusted Gross Domestic Product increased by 4.54% compared to the same quarter of previous year in the first quarter of 2016.
For the 2016/2017 it is estimated that Turkish GDP growth has stabilized at an annual rate of around 4%, very similar to real growth operated in 2015.
Turkey Gross domestic product in constant prices (at 1998 prices)
2014
11,082,921
41,512,974
849,066
30,501,108
2,278,068
507,169
7,377,564
74,659,682
15,926,152
15,607,182
2,484,542
3,230,396
16,684,721
5,828,801
3,249,695
2,343,189
3,691,614
2,515,651
1,568,320
235,026
1,086,825
207,568
127,255,577
11,676,375
10,678,608
126,257,811
83,628,112
14,033,075
29,887,582
-47,361
34,306,613
35,550,210
126,257,811
2014
-2.05
3.53
5.58
3.65
4.14
10.81
2.17
4.25
1.89
3.10
2.82
3.34
7.30
2.77
10.88
5.73
2.42
6.55
5.61
6.90
2.21
2.81
3.44
7.32
2.58
3.02
1.43
4.71
-1.33
7.44
-0.28
Latest data
Own estimate

2015
11,925,978
42,888,872
829,257
31,664,101
2,332,075
559,923
7,503,516
78,257,028
16,257,633
16,058,781
2,599,723
3,336,718
18,356,127
5,979,000
3,620,574
2,466,832
3,774,611
2,651,424
1,616,398
247,452
1,087,124
204,630
133,071,877
13,353,791
11,570,922
131,289,008
87,392,003
14,975,402
30,965,540
-420,441
34,023,531
35,647,026
131,289,008
2015
7.61
3.31
-2.33
3.81
2.37
10.40
1.71
4.82
2.08
2.89
4.64
3.29
10.02
2.58
11.41
5.28
2.25
5.40
3.07
5.29
0.03
-1.42
4.57
14.37
8.36
3.98
4.50
6.72
3.61
-0.83
0.27

2016
12,510,622
44,699,675
827,052
33,067,883
2,400,439
605,309
7,798,991
81,859,456
16,893,147
16,505,347
2,636,093
3,435,977
19,682,717
6,168,595
3,986,728
2,625,649
3,925,167
2,777,907
1,675,016
257,170
1,090,338
199,605
139,069,752
14,748,907
12,238,934
136,559,779
92,241,682
16,315,329
31,011,195
93,784
34,537,905
37,640,117
136,559,779
2016
4.90
4.22
-0.27
4.43
2.93
8.11
3.94
4.60
3.91
2.78
1.40
2.97
7.23
3.17
10.11
6.44
3.99
4.77
3.63
3.93
0.30
-2.46
4.51
10.45
5.77
4.01
5.55
8.95
0.15
1.51
5.59

2017
13,312,720
46,468,580
825,522
34,443,513
2,469,435
655,845
8,074,265
85,590,200
17,438,715
17,030,764
2,700,831
3,539,907
21,165,307
6,338,961
4,355,170
2,768,348
4,064,499
2,904,188
1,725,115
268,690
1,093,122
196,584
145,371,500
16,252,380
12,992,763
142,111,883
96,674,587
17,560,341
31,347,890
548,543
34,826,474
38,845,953
142,111,883
2017
6.41
3.96
-0.19
4.16
2.87
8.35
3.53
4.56
3.23
3.18
2.46
3.02
7.53
2.76
9.24
5.43
3.55
4.55
2.99
4.48
0.26
-1.51
4.53
10.19
6.16
4.07
4.81
7.63
1.09
0.84
3.20

Calendar adjusted GDP in constant (1998) prices

(Thousand TL)
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Industry
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation
Construction
Services
Wholesale and retail trade
Transportation and storage
Accomodation and food service activities
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Administrative and support service activities
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
Education
Human health and social work activities
Arts, entertaintment and recreation
Other service activities
Activities of household as employers
Sectoral total
Financial intermediation services indirectly measured
Taxes-subsidies
Gross domestic product (Purchaser's price)
Final Consumption Expenditure of Resident Households
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Public+Private
Change in Stocks
Exports
Imports
GDP
Year-on-year (%)
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Industry
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation
Construction
Services
Wholesale and retail trade
Transportation and storage
Accomodation and food service activities
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Administrative and support service activities
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
Education
Human health and social work activities
Arts, entertaintment and recreation
Other service activities
Activities of household as employers
Sectoral total
Financial intermediation services indirectly measured
Taxes-subsidies
Gross domestic product (Purchaser's price)
Final Consumption Expenditure of Resident Households
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Public+Private
Exports
Imports

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2,379,835
5,302,866
2,834,226
1,447,094
2,508,313
5,528,439
11,006,500 10,635,940 11,141,694 10,657,775 11,411,306 11,080,743
206,562
258,772
206,053
161,029
206,972
254,795
8,194,967
7,678,897
8,144,535
8,053,850
8,506,984
8,038,057
559,638
598,773
713,732
478,320
574,719
613,892
137,417
155,233
140,666
137,613
149,159
166,004
1,907,917
1,944,265
1,936,708
1,826,963
1,973,472
2,007,996
18,692,257 19,908,176 20,770,804 19,812,628 19,583,181 20,764,488
4,132,636
4,053,149
4,182,523
4,090,192
4,286,758
4,210,758
4,048,279
4,102,315
4,170,811
3,879,119
4,159,294
4,220,780
481,659
1,104,230
566,513
442,131
493,359
1,116,334
804,586
770,517
917,246
865,251
839,336
797,837
4,075,914
4,785,092
5,229,395
4,544,632
4,394,188
5,091,437
1,472,673
1,489,206
1,533,668
1,536,671
1,517,755
1,533,358
808,669
703,552
1,045,143
1,158,108
895,601
785,025
584,773
539,302
679,584
706,957
623,073
577,771
880,380
987,933
1,002,093
955,860
919,236
1,010,433
657,361
610,413
663,674
749,037
691,482
641,990
389,182
402,558
375,719
464,615
403,581
415,896
58,212
54,410
65,335
71,751
60,339
57,193
258,774
265,432
279,042
284,584
260,166
266,411
39,159
40,069
60,058
63,718
39,014
39,264
32,078,593 35,846,982 34,746,724 31,917,497 33,502,800 37,373,669
3,008,579
3,447,892
3,848,309
3,344,473
3,307,094
3,815,941
2,849,686
2,976,664
3,009,314
2,879,238
3,006,985
3,163,571
31,919,699 35,375,754 33,907,730 31,452,262 33,202,691 36,721,299
20,896,676 22,932,470 22,693,134 22,289,625 22,053,764 24,088,942
3,520,683
3,572,563
4,661,133
3,572,297
3,853,607
3,866,636
8,310,484
7,400,173
8,206,103
7,041,933
8,048,786
7,625,525
-54,520
918,342 -1,120,975
-32,743
313,636
1,144,911
8,346,411
9,131,758
8,770,866
7,898,369
8,537,960
9,205,115
9,100,034
8,579,552
9,302,531
9,317,218
9,605,061
9,209,830
31,919,699 35,375,754 33,907,730 31,452,262 33,202,691 36,721,299
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
7.72
11.39
2.79
2.70
5.40
4.25
4.02
3.50
5.13
5.47
3.68
4.18
-5.26
0.34
2.54
2.00
0.20
-1.54
4.85
3.98
5.10
5.34
3.81
4.68
2.04
1.62
4.00
4.00
2.69
2.52
8.75
12.90
12.70
8.69
8.54
6.94
1.91
1.98
5.45
6.55
3.44
3.28
4.12
5.55
5.50
4.91
4.77
4.30
2.35
2.40
2.44
5.16
3.73
3.89
2.14
2.27
5.96
3.79
2.74
2.89
2.69
5.99
3.46
-1.16
2.43
1.10
-1.12
1.51
3.68
2.47
4.32
3.55
9.86
13.60
9.78
6.54
7.81
6.40
2.98
2.76
1.54
3.59
3.06
2.96
10.21
10.15
10.56
8.93
10.75
11.58
5.07
4.53
4.88
6.60
6.55
7.13
0.47
5.13
3.78
5.71
4.41
2.28
5.06
4.69
4.50
4.04
5.19
5.17
2.38
2.89
1.44
3.49
3.70
3.31
5.64
4.53
8.60
3.25
3.65
5.12
-0.20
-0.37
0.28
0.25
0.54
0.37
-5.23
-5.46
1.62
-2.49
-0.37
-2.01
4.35
5.75
5.16
4.99
4.44
4.26
15.83
18.33
13.73
9.69
9.92
10.67
8.75
9.29
8.65
5.26
5.52
6.28
3.75
4.95
4.56
4.54
4.02
3.80
5.46
4.47
3.85
6.80
5.54
5.04
7.34
7.97
8.13
10.91
9.46
8.23
10.02
-0.05
3.54
-0.10
-3.15
3.05
-2.59
0.32
-0.01
1.59
2.29
0.80
1.47
-1.19
-2.57
7.53
5.55
7.35

Inflation, as measured by the implicit price of the Final Consumption Expenditure of Resident Households, has trended downward: 6.99% in 2014, 6.56%
in 2015 and 5.71% y-o-y for the first quarter of 2016.
Seasonally adjusted data, GDP in 1Q2016 grew by 0.81% against the previous quarter growth of 1.22%. It is projected for the second quarter real growth
recovery driven by service sectors.
Seasonally adjusted GDP in constant (1998) prices
(Thousand TL)
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Industry
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation
Construction
Services
Wholesale and retail trade
Transportation and storage
Accomodation and food service activities
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Administrative and support service activities
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
Education
Human health and social work activities
Arts, entertaintment and recreation
Other service activities
Activities of household as employers
Sectoral total
Financial intermediation services indirectly measured
Taxes-subsidies
Gross domestic product (Purchaser's price)
Final Consumption Expenditure of Resident Households
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Public+Private
Change in Stocks
Exports
Imports
GDP
Quarter-on-quarter (%)
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Industry
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation
Construction
Services
Wholesale and retail trade
Transportation and storage
Accomodation and food service activities
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Administrative and support service activities
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
Education
Human health and social work activities
Arts, entertaintment and recreation
Other service activities
Activities of household as employers
Sectoral total
Financial intermediation services indirectly measured
Taxes-subsidies
Gross domestic product (Purchaser's price)
Final Consumption Expenditure of Resident Households
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Public+Private
Exports
Imports
Latest data
Own estimate

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2,931,609
2,978,820
3,031,972
2,983,577
3,085,169
3,134,141
3,137,172
3,154,139
10,488,416 10,730,607 10,742,577 10,927,272 11,034,060 11,131,155 11,204,065 11,330,394
205,328
207,291
208,588
208,051
206,282
205,204
207,456
208,111
7,744,012
7,933,489
7,919,665
8,066,935
8,152,453
8,238,487
8,290,060
8,386,884
569,729
583,355
588,828
590,163
593,098
598,680
603,765
604,896
133,568
137,563
143,854
144,939
145,167
148,976
153,687
157,479
1,835,780
1,868,909
1,881,642
1,917,185
1,937,059
1,939,809
1,949,099
1,973,024
19,207,368 19,390,858 19,717,150 19,941,652 20,107,120 20,329,871 20,600,217 20,822,247
4,015,610
4,057,489
4,054,440
4,130,095
4,215,112
4,211,831
4,212,453
4,253,751
3,917,719
3,990,661
4,017,730
4,132,672
4,061,893
4,099,720
4,132,559
4,211,176
645,967
644,613
658,586
650,557
644,377
657,833
665,472
668,412
837,690
818,493
830,390
850,145
853,533
852,559
857,515
872,370
4,451,969
4,515,370
4,707,787
4,681,001
4,738,732
4,868,386
5,015,836
5,059,762
1,479,399
1,491,149
1,501,334
1,507,118
1,529,562
1,537,914
1,547,354
1,553,766
884,270
888,707
911,615
935,982
958,575
983,342
1,016,529
1,028,282
610,879
612,056
614,963
628,934
648,796
653,577
658,457
664,818
921,494
931,027
965,371
956,719
973,477
971,530
988,080
992,080
656,193
655,947
664,584
674,700
682,585
689,645
698,704
706,973
401,632
402,059
406,596
406,111
414,986
417,650
420,775
421,604
60,667
61,720
61,815
63,250
62,726
64,056
64,722
65,666
272,051
271,210
271,396
272,467
272,643
272,384
272,338
272,973
51,828
50,357
50,543
51,903
50,124
49,443
49,425
50,613
32,627,394 33,100,285 33,491,698 33,852,500 34,226,350 34,595,167 34,941,455 35,306,780
3,217,491
3,334,670
3,391,180
3,410,449
3,525,548
3,670,247
3,756,443
3,796,669
2,830,166
2,875,897
2,902,571
2,962,288
2,973,527
3,039,827
3,084,707
3,140,874
32,240,069 32,641,512 33,003,088 33,404,340 33,674,328 33,964,746 34,269,718 34,650,985
21,480,738 21,683,450 22,039,480 22,188,335 22,837,962 22,939,854 23,110,518 23,353,347
3,589,235
3,712,633
3,811,959
3,861,575
4,035,300
4,043,215
4,108,241
4,128,574
7,522,758
8,169,036
7,569,031
7,704,715
7,509,000
7,887,346
7,789,458
7,825,390
79,374
-381,064
-427,802
309,051
240,060
-52,884
-185,564
92,172
8,569,593
8,423,125
8,562,681
8,468,132
8,705,068
8,615,964
8,630,119
8,586,754
9,001,629
8,965,668
8,552,261
9,127,468
9,653,061
9,468,749
9,183,055
9,335,252
32,240,069 32,641,512 33,003,088 33,404,340 33,674,328 33,964,746 34,269,718 34,650,985
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
3.18
1.61
1.78
-1.60
3.41
1.59
0.10
0.54
0.82
2.31
0.11
1.72
0.98
0.88
0.66
1.13
-1.21
0.96
0.63
-0.26
-0.85
-0.52
1.10
0.32
0.95
2.45
-0.17
1.86
1.06
1.06
0.63
1.17
0.63
2.39
0.94
0.23
0.50
0.94
0.85
0.19
3.22
2.99
4.57
0.75
0.16
2.62
3.16
2.47
0.43
1.80
0.68
1.89
1.04
0.14
0.48
1.23
1.53
0.96
1.68
1.14
0.83
1.11
1.33
1.08
-0.37
1.04
-0.08
1.87
2.06
-0.08
0.01
0.98
0.32
1.86
0.68
2.86
-1.71
0.93
0.80
1.90
3.09
-0.21
2.17
-1.22
-0.95
2.09
1.16
0.44
1.47
-2.29
1.45
2.38
0.40
-0.11
0.58
1.73
4.55
1.42
4.26
-0.57
1.23
2.74
3.03
0.88
-0.13
0.79
0.68
0.39
1.49
0.55
0.61
0.41
4.73
0.50
2.58
2.67
2.41
2.58
3.37
1.16
2.08
0.19
0.47
2.27
3.16
0.74
0.75
0.97
0.07
1.03
3.69
-0.90
1.75
-0.20
1.70
0.40
1.68
-0.04
1.32
1.52
1.17
1.03
1.31
1.18
0.86
0.11
1.13
-0.12
2.19
0.64
0.75
0.20
3.80
1.74
0.15
2.32
-0.83
2.12
1.04
1.46
-0.02
-0.31
0.07
0.39
0.06
-0.09
-0.02
0.23
-0.34
-2.84
0.37
2.69
-3.43
-1.36
-0.04
2.40
1.45
1.45
1.18
1.08
1.10
1.08
1.00
1.05
7.40
3.64
1.69
0.57
3.37
4.10
2.35
1.07
3.94
1.62
0.93
2.06
0.38
2.23
1.48
1.82
1.10
1.25
1.11
1.22
0.81
0.86
0.90
1.11
0.39
0.94
1.64
0.68
2.93
0.45
0.74
1.05
1.15
3.44
2.68
1.30
4.50
0.20
1.61
0.49
0.54
8.59
-7.34
1.79
-2.54
5.04
-1.24
0.46
1.31
-1.71
1.66
-1.10
2.80
-1.02
0.16
-0.50
-3.96
-0.40
-4.61
6.73
5.76
-1.91
-3.02
1.66