Lebby SBSEE10

Green photonics: will it
change our lives over

the next decade?!
Michael Lebby!
Past-President!
OIDA!
OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association

3 key takeaways…!
! Photonics enables many things and is part of
our lifestyle!
! Photonics will be integrated – just like ICs

50years ago and drive new product designs!
! Photonics is green and will enable new

technologies and products that will also be
green… !
Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)
Now the 1000s of slides to get 3 takeaways...

In a decade… 
a truly ʻgreenʼ vehicle with LEDs and solar panels !
Pennsylvania, USA!
Sources: Philips Lumileds, OIDA, George Craford!
Extreme but effective…

USAʼs biggest (passive) weapon…!
Saving energy ! less oil ! less dependence on fossil fuels!
It’s a lifestyle…turn things off…

Photonics in renewables…!
!  Barrier: Scaling up renewable GW in our infrastructure!
"  Cost of renewable electricity!
"  Performance and reliability!
"  Infrastructure robustness and capacity!
"  Simplfying dispatchable energy (wind)!
!  Barrier: Obsoleting petroleum (fossil) based fuels!

"  Cellulosic ethanol cost (wood, grass, non-edible plants)!
"  Life cycle sustainability of biofuels!
"  Fuels infrastructure, standards, metrics!
"  Demand, utilization and intermediate blends!
!  Barrier: Shrinking energy demand of buildings, automotives, etc!

"  Coordinated implementation of model building codes!
"  Market does not value efficiency!
"  Cost of energy efficient technologies!
"  Performance and reliability of new technologies!
Sources: NREL, Dan Arvizu!
>> decade programs: attitude ! cultural

OIDA exploring the green photonics value
chain…!
New Opportunities Active Presence
Value Chain
Wireline/wireless carriers; lighting architects;

Service consumer services; media/content providers
Providers
Green - eco-system and energy efficient design

Green photonics systems and component
Systems
Home display, solar cell, lighting windows/panels
Defense High Power Solar & Sensing

Telecom Nano/Bio Lighting
Security Laser Energy Industrial
Modules Modules Packages Modules
Modules Modules Modules Modules
Military Medical & Solar & Sensing

Components Telecom Advanced Display Lighting
Spec High Power Energy Industrial
Devices Materials Devices Devices
Devices Lasers Devices Devices
Sources: OIDA research Technology Breadth
OIDA: Common
Optoelectronics platforms
Industry Development Association
Photonics
markets...are
already global!
Global optoelectronics components market!
!  Growing from $353B in 2009 to $516B in 2021!
"  FPD big driver ! 3.9% CAGR; SSL still best growth at 29% CAGR!
Lighting!
Dog-leg ! slow down!
FPD!
Sources: OIDA research, IOA!
Outlook is strong for OE/photonics

Asia dominant in OE/photonics!
!  Asia owned 81% 
of global 2009 OE 
market of $353B!
North America & Europe minor players

OE/photonics market by major location!
!  By 2021, share: Europe 8.6%, USA 9%, and Asia 82.4%!
!  Asia photonics maintains growth (3.4% CAGR 2010-2021)!
Asian infrastructure strongest

OE/photonics market by country!
!  By 2021, OE/photonics 
will be a $500B 
business with many  
countries contributing…!
!  China grows quickly!
!  US constant!
Both design and manf ! off-shore

Green
photonics will
grow...!
Green photonics defined…!
Optoelectronic components!
! HBLED ! !!
! Std led ! !!
!  Contribution of photonics is considered “green” if it! !
!
LED Module !
Linear CCD !
!!
!!
! Area CCD ! !!
"  Generates or conserves energy! !
!
Contact image sensor
CMOS image sensor
!!
!!
"  Reduces greenhouse gas emissions! ! Solar cell

Flat panel displays
! LCD (tft)
!
!
!
!!
!!
!!
"  Reduces pollution! !

!
LCD (tn, stn)!
PDP ! !!
! VFD ! !!
"  Yields a more environmentally sustainable outcome! !

!
OLED
Microdisplay !
! !!
!!
! LTPS TFT ! !!
"  Improves human health! Optical I/O devices
! DSC
!
!
!!
!!
! Copier ! !!
!  Methodology! !
!
Fax machine !!
Multi-functional product !!
! Laser printer !!
"  Start with base optoelectronics market forecast! !
!
Bar code reader
Scanner !
!!
!!
Optical storage ! !!
"  Analyze OE segments for green criteria! !
!
Consumer disc player
Optical disc player for PC
!!
!!
" 
! Re-writable disc !!
Aggregate all green segments for market total! ! Optical disc titles
Optical fiber comms !
!!
!!
"  Identify green elements of segments! !

!
!
Optical cable !!
Optical passive components
Optical communication equipment!
!!
"  Forecast the penetration rate to 2021! !

!
Optical active components
Optical modules
!!
!!
Precision optical lens and laser!
"  Expect criteria for green ! stringent ! !

!
Lasers !
Precision optical lens
!!
!!
! Laser application equipments !!
–  Slowing penetration rates! ! Optical lens !
Solid state lighting !
!!
!!
! In-Organic LED !!
! Organic LED ! !!
Systematically reviewing OE segments

Global OE components market!
!  Green portion grows quickly over decade!
"  13.3% ($46.6B) in 2008 to 52% ($243B) in 2021!
Sources: OIDA research, Phil Wright WRT Associates!
General acceptance of energy efficiency

Green OE by segment!
!  FPD largest growing to $110B by 2021!
"  OE components 2nd, reflecting large role of PV and HBLEDs!
Consumer applications big driver for green

Green OE components: detail!
!  2010-2021 CAGR solar 8.8% and HBLED 21.7%!
Lighting and solar natural green areas

Networks
must address
energy...!
Evolve architecture quickly…  
(while traffic CAGR >50%)!
!  IP over DWDM transport:!
"  Eliminate unnecessary layers and minimize underutilized
equipment!
"  Maximize architecture and equipment scalability!
Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism
Challenge: contain energy footprint

Cost for power and cooling in data centers!
!  Year 2000!
"  Raw processing ʻhorsepowerʼ is
the primary goal, while the
infrastructure to support it is
assumed ready!
!  Year 2006!
"  Raw processing ʻhorsepowerʼ is
a given but the infrastructure to
support deployment is a limited
factor!
!  Year 2010!
"  Three cooling challenges!
–  System, rack, data center!
!  Year 2021!
"  Green designs imperative… !
Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, DOE, OIDA OPTOmism, IBM Research, IDC
P & C spending >> new server spending

Broadband technology!
!  Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by technology!
Source: OECD
What is the effect if graph is mostly red?

Data transport and processing!
!  In 2006, servers and data centers consumed 1.5 percent of US
electricity (61 billion kWh) !
!  May double by 2011!
Source: US EPA
Action needed to rein in data center power

Photonic integrated circuits save power!
!  Important roles for green photonics in reducing power consumption
in communications and computing!
"  Short term – further deployment and upgrading of optical
communications links with lower mW/Gb/s, also leads to reduced
cooling requirements and improved cooling capability!
"  Medium and Long term – new computing hardware architectures
employing optical interfaces between processing, logic, and memory
will lead to higher flops/W!
Sources: Lightwire, IBM!
Tighter integration leads to lower power

Consumer !
must be
ʻgreenʼ!
New decade opportunities!
3D?
!  System integration!
"  Take a display and incorporate it into a ʻcoolʼ product!
–  iphone, fridge, golf cart …!
!  Modify for niche markets! HDTV
"  Medical - resolution, bit depth …!

"  Defense – ruggedness, portability …!
"  Sports – weight, form factor …!
COLOR
B&W
We see things in 3D!

Sources: Colorlink, RCA, Motorola, Sony, Philips!
System integration, niche, and 3D???

Displays going green & energy efficient!
!  US TVs consumed ~70 billion kWh!
"  ~4% residential electricity use!
!  TV power consumption scales with

screen size!
"  Projection lower power than plasma!
!  Laser projection TV offers major
power savings !
"  For 60”-65” class TV !
–  Plasma 524W, LCD 525W,
Laser projection 135W!
!  Sony XEL-1 OLED TV power
consumption matches trend!
!  Mature but rapidly disappearing
CRT TVs are relatively efficient!
Source: NRDC
Projection and OLED TVs save power

OLED displays (green)  
have caught imagination of the public…!
!  OLED displays have been

demonstrated and applied in many
product categories!
!  The performance attributes of OLED
displays – thinness, high contrast, high
response speed, … allow designers to
differentiate their product!
Sources: Phil Wright, OIDA Sources: Sony, Nokia, iRiver
Organic LED…so we don’t use pesticide

Projection: new diode laser market?!
!  Consumers will find new Fun
opportunities to utilize!
!  Being able to enhance life at
anywhere, anytime, anyplace!
Business
Holidays Interests
Sources: OIDA, Novalux, TI!
New lifestyle using laser technology

OIDA Projection Technology Roadmap!
OIDA 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Traditional
projection
technologies! ~15L/lb
Green diode Pico-projector
400L
>4x laser 515nm PDA w/direct LD
(increase)!
27 lb
Class: mobile!
1700L ~850L/lb
Use: travel in pc case! >10x 2 lb
Technology: UHP! (decrease)
Future projection
technologies!
~50L/lb
Class: pocket! 20-50L >4x
(increase)
Use: wearable!
Technology: LED, 1 lb
Laser! ~800L/lb
>10x 80-200L
(decrease)
0.1 lb
!
Weight (lb)! 30 20 10 1 0.5 0.1
Volume (cu-in)! 200 100 50 30 25 20 15
Michael Lebby OIDA Slanted Font: Major industry efforts are required for commercialization
Technology & Components: Commercial Availability in Year Indicated Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)
Challenge to shrink and be brighter

Lighting!
LEDs and
OLEDs!
In a decade: 
Lighting will be crucial to save energy!
!  U.S. electricity consumption could fall by 300TWh/yr by 2020!
"  212Twh/yr if all sockets converted to LEDs (>2% energy in 2007) !
Sources: Jeff Tsao, Sandia National Laboratories, DOE
Innovative new green LED designs…

In a decade: 
Photonic lighting will be popular…!
!  Combined LED/OLED will grow to ~43% of lighting market by 2020!
Will the G8 ban Incand/Mercury in 5 years?

OLEDs may become fashionable!
!  Fashion in photonics!
Sources: Groonk.net, Nyxjacket, OIDA, PIDA, General Dynamics, eMagin, Laser Focus World!
Potential very high volume

UV for purification: Hg ! LED ! LD!
Wavelength Wavelength
in metres in nanometres
(m) 780
Short wave radio
102 Red 700
Television
Orange
600
Visible light
1 FM Yellow
Green
Radar
500
Blue
10-2
Indigo
400
Violet
10-4 Infrared 380
Invisible
Disinfection, i.e. inactivation of pathogens
10-6 Visible light
Invisible
Ultraviolet
10-8
UVA Blacklight
315 - 400 nm
400
365
UV Lamp
10-10 x-rays ELECTRODE +
UVB Suntan
300
Ultra violet
280 - 315nm
UVC Germicidal
10-12 200 - 280 (315) nm
200
UV-Vacuum
!-rays 100 - 200 nm
10-14 100
Source: Siemens! Cosmic-rays
ELECTRODE -
Applications: Municipal drinking/waste water, Commercial water, Industrial water
Reducing toxicity with semiconductors

Sensors will
be utilized
more...!
Optical sensors in key green roles!
Pipe Line Leakage Monitoring
Fiber Optic Sensors for Oil Extraction
LIDAR for Wind Turbine Control

Fiber Optic Sensors for Wind Turbine Control Sources: Smartec, Opsens, Catch the Wind, Insensys!
Market is broad and growing

Spectroscopy in greenhouses…!
!  Monitoring solar irradiance - LED characterization and
control !
Paprika LED test case; Red/Blue most effective for growth of Monitoring solar and artificial combined light in a rosegarden
crop
Source: Ocean Optics!
Power of LEDs opens new markets

Solar will
accelerate...!
The hills are green…oops!!
!  11MW Serpa,
Portugal!
!  Project led by GE!
!  52,000 panels  
200 watts each!
!  Project cost:  
75 million euros!
!  Installed in six
months!
!  Operational since
Jan 2007!
Sources: EPIC, eupvplatform.org, EPIA!
Will environmentalists complain?

2 majors impacts for CPV…!
!  (1) Increase cell efficiency & (2) lower cell cost ($/Cm2)!
Huge value to CPV industry
Source: Boeing Spectrolab, Translucent

Opportunity cell cost: CPV ! Flat plate

Solar PV cell efficiencies…! %
50
45
41.6
32
22
22
17
16
12
2020
Source: NREL!
Spectral conversion may be the catalyst

Spectral conversion in solar cells!
!  Higher efficiencies through better utilization of the solar
spectrum!
Utilizing un-used solar spectrum….

Summary!
!  Energy efficiency will become ʻfront and centerʼ over next decade!
"  Will this become a ʻway of lifeʼ, even cultural?!
!  Thirst for knowledgeable will increase!
"  Networks will slow, data will cost more, data centers have to be more
efficient, optical components will be utilized more…!
!  Health and clean living will become a priority!
"  Hand-held mobile sensors/monitors become the norm !virtual care!
"  UV LEDs, lasers; bio-photonic analysis will accelerate!
!  Green philosophy will grow quickly over the next decade!
"  Products must show sensitivity to energy, sustainability!
"  LEDs and OLEDs lead in novel applications!
"  Lasers, silicon photonics, LCDs mature in different ways!
"  PVs become ubiquitous in everyday life!
Green, clean and energy efficient…

3 key takeaways…!
! Photonics enables many things and is part of
our lifestyle!
! Photonics will be integrated – just like ICs

50years ago and drive new product designs!
! Photonics is green and will enable new

technologies and products that will also be
green… !
Phew…
END!

Backup!

USA decade trends!
Flat decade in photonics

VCSELs for low power data communication!
!  VCSEL scaling projection!
Sources: Dennis Deppe, Uni of Central Florida!
Role in data-centers important

Impact of green display manufacturing!
Improvement in Product or
Element Impact
Process
Backlight efficiency, Pixel
Light Efficiency Improvement 50 % reduction in power consumption
transmittance
Low Hg lamp, Fewer backlight
Backlight 30-50 % reduction in Hg content
lamps
Glass, printed circuit board, liquid Eliminate arsenic from glass, Eliminate
crystal material, integrated circuits, Green component selection halogens, Eliminate brominated fire
sealing materials, etc. retardant
Reduce water consumption per glass area
Water consumption Low water processing
by 70%
Reduce green house gas emissions per
Greenhouse gas Low emission processes
glass area by 70%
Save 21,000 trees, 48,000 tons water,
Shipping packaging material Redesign shipping packaging
3,000 MWhr electricity, 2,000 ton CO2
Maximize shipping contained Save 6,300 ton CO2 , 13,000 MWhr
Shipping transportation
loading electricity
Recycle glass, Reuse solvents,
Waste production 80 % waste recovery rate
Reduce sludge, Reuse sludge
Source: AU Optronics!
Improving processes across the board

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Green photonics: will it

change our lives over

OIDA: Optoelectronics Industry Development Association

! Photonics will be integrated – just like ICs

! Photonics is green and will enable new

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

Now the 1000s of slides to get 3 takeaways...

Sources: Philips Lumileds, OIDA, George Craford!

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

Extreme but effective…

Saving energy ! less oil ! less dependence on fossil fuels!

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

It’s a lifestyle…turn things off…

! Barrier: Obsoleting petroleum (fossil) based fuels!

! Barrier: Shrinking energy demand of buildings, automotives, etc!

Sources: NREL, Dan Arvizu!

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

>> decade programs: attitude ! cultural

Wireline/wireless carriers; lighting architects;

Green - eco-system and energy efficient design

Defense High Power Solar & Sensing

Military Medical & Solar & Sensing

Sources: OIDA research Technology Breadth

Dog-leg ! slow down!

Sources: OIDA research, IOA!

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

Outlook is strong for OE/photonics

Sources: OIDA research, IOA!

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

North America & Europe minor players

Sources: OIDA research, IOA!

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

Asian infrastructure strongest

Sources: OIDA research, IOA!

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

Both design and manf ! off-shore

" Reduces greenhouse gas emissions! ! Solar cell

" Reduces pollution! !

" Yields a more environmentally sustainable outcome! !

" Identify green elements of segments! !

" Forecast the penetration rate to 2021! !

" Expect criteria for green ! stringent ! !

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

Systematically reviewing OE segments

Sources: OIDA research, Phil Wright WRT Associates!

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

General acceptance of energy efficiency

Sources: OIDA research, Phil Wright WRT Associates!

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

Consumer applications big driver for green

Sources: OIDA research, Phil Wright WRT Associates!

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

Lighting and solar natural green areas

Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

Challenge: contain energy footprint

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

P & C spending >> new server spending

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

What is the effect if graph is mostly red?

Michael Lebby (lebby@oida.org)

Action needed to rein in data center power

! Photonics will be integrated – just like ICs

! Photonics is green and will enable new

!  Barrier: Obsoleting petroleum (fossil) based fuels!

!  Barrier: Shrinking energy demand of buildings, automotives, etc!

"  Reduces greenhouse gas emissions! ! Solar cell

"  Reduces pollution! !

"  Yields a more environmentally sustainable outcome! !

"  Identify green elements of segments! !

"  Forecast the penetration rate to 2021! !

"  Expect criteria for green ! stringent ! !

"  Medical - resolution, bit depth …!

!  TV power consumption scales with

!  OLED displays have been

!  Consumers will find new Fun

! Photonics will be integrated – just like ICs

! Photonics is green and will enable new