2.
Reach(T)Max(Reach(X),Reach(Y))
3.
Where Reach = l-f(0), that is, 1 minus those who do not see the schedule.
This procedure begins by calculating the new total reach, which is assumed to be within the interval of the conditions described above.
The Limits of the Reach from the Point of View of Set Theory
1. The maximum reach of both schedules (see Figure 4)
For the minimum level, we are assuming that the reach of schedule A is contained in or is a subset of B, which means that A does not exceed the reach
(see Equation 2).
This means that when consolidating both schedules, the total reach is equal to the reach of B.
2. The schedule B is independent from A (see Equation 3)
This means that the intersection of schedules A and B is the product of their probabilities (see Equation 4).
This means that the maximum level is equal to random duplication.
CREATING THE FACTORS
First, the factors that determine the maximum and minimum levels of reach are calculated; the interval of the solution of the total reach (the result of
consolidating both schedules) is defined here.
Factor: Maximum Reach of Both Schedules. This corresponds to the factor with which the reach of the lower limit of the consolidated schedule is obtained
(see Equation 5).
Factor: Random Reach (Independence). This corresponds to the factor with which the reach of the upper limit of the consolidated schedule is obtained
(see Equation 6).
New Factor or Probabilistic Factor. The factor most likely to occur (see Equation 7).
The new total reach or mixed reach of the consolidated model is determined using the probabilistic factor (see Equation 8).
Figure 1 depicts the curves of the three factors as a function of increases in the GRPs. They make the reach increase, but with decreasing returns. The
factor acts to decelerate the reach as a function of increases in the GRPs, as they are basically the OTS minus the GRPs.
The step that follows the estimation of the mixed reach of the schedules being consolidated is to calculate the ratio that allows the joint distribution of the
distributions to be created.
Estimation of the Ratio: This Ratio will make it possible to distribute the joint proportions of the schedule distributions that are being consolidated (see
Equation 9).9
Where random duplication (Duprdm) is: (see Equation 10)
Within the concept of probabilities, this duplication involves independence between the media that are being consolidated. In other words, the
consumption of one media outlet has no influence on the consumption of the other.
Where actual duplication is: (see Equation 11)
In the following section we present an example that illustrates the application of this method.
ILLUSTRATION
In order to illustrate the methodology that consolidates the frequency distributions of various media, two schedules were created: a television schedule
and a print media schedule. The schedules were then evaluated using the software currently available in the Chilean market, TVdata and PrintPlan, which
are used for television and print media schedules, respectively.
The target group used here is the total number of people (in Chile) between the ages of 25 and 54; this universe comprised of 2,149,519 people. Figure 2
shows the output of the software when applied to the two schedules being studied.
The frequency distributions of individual media are presented in Table 1 (also see Table 2).
Estimation of Maximum Factor. This is the factor that corresponds to the lower limit of the consolidated schedule. In this case it is the minimum reach
possible in the new distribution, which is to say the maximum reach of the media evaluations, independently. Let Reachmax be the maximum reach of the
two schedules, let GRP tv be the GRP obtained in the television schedule, let GRP pr be the GRP obtained in the print media schedule, and let GRP mix be
GRP tv + GRP pr (see Equation 12).
Estimation of the Random Factor. This is the factor that corresponds to the upper limit of the consolidated schedule. In this case, it corresponds to the
random duplication, which means assuming independence between the media. Let Reachrdm be the reach when assuming random duplication (Duprdm)
(see Equation 13).
Estimation of the Probabilistic Factor. This is an average of the Maximum and Random factors, weighted according to their respective reaches (see
Equation 14).
Estimation of the Reach of the Consolidated Schedule: The weighted factor is used to determine the reach of the consolidated schedule (Reachmix). It is
calculated as follows in Equation 15.
Calculation of Actual Duplication. Once the reach of the consolidated schedule has been determined, the actual duplication of the television and print
media schedules can be determined. We label designate duplication as Dupact. We know that the reach of the consolidated schedule (Reachmix) is the
sum of the reaches of the television schedule (Reachtv ) and the print media schedule (Reachpr), minus their duplication (Dupact), that is: (See Equation 16)
This produces: (see Equation 17)
Estimation of the Frequency Distribution of the Consolidated Schedule: In order to estimate the consolidated frequency distribution, the proportion of the
non-impacted ones (zero frequency) of both distributions (television and print media) must be recalculated.
1.
2.
Re-estimation of the proportion of individuals not reached by each schedule: (see Equation 19)
Where:
P * ,0 : Re-estimation of the proportion of people not reached by the television schedule.
P j =0 : Original proportion of people not reached by the television schedule.
P * 0,: Re-estimation of the proportion of people not reached by the print media schedule.
P i=0 : Original proportion of people not reached by the print media schedule (see Tables 3 and 4).
The distribution of the consolidated frequency is obtained from the matrix in which the frequency distributions of the media are combined with their re
calculated zero frequency.
Let
Be
P i,j : Matrix cell i,j contains the proportion of individuals exposed i times to the print media model and j times to the television model, where i=0,1,...,11+
and j=0,l,...,9+.
P ,j : Frequency distribution of television with the recalculated zero frequency.
P i,: Frequency distribution of print media with recalculated zero frequency.
Matrix cell 0,0 contains the proportion of individuals not exposed to either of the two schedules, meaning the people who are not exposed to the
consolidated schedule. The method of calculating this is as follows in Equation 20.
The remaining cells in the matrix are calculated the same way. To exemplify our methodology, the calculation of cell (1,0) is shown (see Equation 21).
Cell (i,j) indicates the proportion of individuals who were impacted i times by the print media schedule and j times by the television schedule. Adding up
the diagonals of the matrix produces the respective frequencies of the consolidated schedule. By way of illustration, Table 4 shows the diagonal that
corresponds to frequency 4 of the consolidated distribution (0.0056 + 0.0284 + 0.0387 + 0.0349 + 0.0145 = 0.1221).
Table 5 shows the frequency distribution after consolidating the television and print media distributions, which produces a reach of 75.04 (100 24.96)
and a GRP of 247. This coincides with the sum of the GRPs obtained by the television and print schedule. Figure 3 shows a graph of the consolidated
frequency distribution.
Table 6 summarizes different evaluations of combined schedules, comparing the proposed method with the results obtained by treating the data as a
single source.
CONCLUSION
This model incorporates a methodology which allows consistent evaluations to be performed using diverse data sources, especially those from
specialized media studies, due to the fact that it uses the final data of each distribution.
The table above compares the results of this method with those obtained by processing the data as a single source.
This confirms that the differences are not statistically significant, which validates the model.
FOOTNOTES
1.
2.
Metheringham, R. A. Measuring the Net Cumulative Coverage of a Print Campaign. JAR, December 1964.
3.
Leckenby, J.D. and M.D. Rice. The Declining Reach Phenomenon in Exposure Distribution Models. Journal of Advertising (15), 1986.
4.
Metrex, TruCume and MetherPlus are a few examples of improved estimation models.
5.
6.
Time Ibope provides the TV data software that was used to carry out these evaluations.
7.
8.
For example, TGI (Target Group Index) and EGM (Estudio General de Medios, General Media Study).
9.
EQUATION 1
FIGURE 4
EQUATION 2
EQUATION 3
EQUATION 4
EQUATION 5
EQUATION 6
EQUATION 7
EQUATION 8
EQUATION 9
EQUATION 10
EQUATION 11
TABLE 2: SUMMARY OF THE RESULTS OF EVALUATIONS OF A TELEVISION SCHEDULE AND A PRINT MEDIA SCHEDULE
EQUATION 12
EQUATION 13
EQUATION 14
EQUATION 15
EQUATION 16
EQUATION 17
EQUATION 18
EQUATION 19
TABLE 3: FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS OF TELEVISION AND PRINT MEDIA WITH RECALCULATED ZERO FREQUENCIES
EQUATION 20
EQUATION 21
TABLE 5: FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION AFTER CONSOLIDATING TELEVISION AND PRINT MEDIA DISTRIBUTIONS
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