INTRODUCTION
1.1 CONGESTION
Congestion is an important problem for road transport and a main challenge for transport policy
at all levels (European Commission, 2012).
Traffic congestion is a condition on road networks that occurs as use increases, and is
characterized by slower speeds, longer trip times, and increased vehicular queueing. The most
common example is the physical use of roads by vehicles. When traffic demand is great enough
that the interaction between vehicles slows the speed of the traffic stream, this results in some
congestion (Downie, 2008). As demand approaches the capacity of a road (or of the intersections
along the road), extreme traffic congestion sets in. When vehicles are fully stopped for periods of
time, this is colloquially known as a traffic jam or traffic snarl-up. Traffic congestion can lead to
drivers becoming frustrated and engaging in road rage.
ix.
x.
1.4
iii.
Re-time their trips so that expensive road space is in full use for a greater number of
hours per day (Blunden 1983).
The standard response to congestion is to expand road space somehow, perhaps by
widening an existing road or else by adding a new road, bridge or tunnel. However, this
could well result in increased traffic flow, otherwise known as induced demand, causing
congestion to appear somewhere else
It has been argued that traffic congestion, by reducing road speeds in cities, could reduce
the frequency and severity of road accidents (Government subsidy - Final report, 2009).
Grade separation, using bridges (or, less often, tunnels) freeing movements from having
to stop for other crossing movements
3
Ramp signalling, 'drip-feeding' merging traffic via traffic signals onto a congested
motorway-type roadway
Reducing junctions
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
viii.
Local-express lanes, providing through lanes that bypass junction on-ramp and off-ramp
zones
Limited-access road, roads that limit the type and amounts of driveways along their
lengths
Reversible lanes, where certain sections of highway operate in the opposite direction on
different times of the day/ days of the week, to match asymmetric demand. These pose a
potential for collisions, if drivers do not notice the change in direction indicators. This
may be controlled by variable-message signs or by movable physical separation
Separate lanes for specific user groups (usually with the goal of higher people throughput
with fewer vehicle
Bus lanes as part of a bus way system
HOV lanes, for vehicles with at least three (sometimes at least two) riders, intended to
encourage carpooling
Slugging, impromptu carpooling at HOV access points, on a hitchhiking or payment basis
Market-based carpooling with pre-negotiated financial incentives for the driver
Urban planning and design
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
City planning and urban design practices can have a huge impact on levels of future
traffic congestion, though they are of limited relevance for short-term change.
Grid plans including fused grid road network geometry, rather than tree-like network
topology which branches into cul-de-sacs (which reduce local traffic, but increase total
distances driven and discourage walking by reducing connectivity). This avoids
concentration of traffic on a small number of arterial roads and allows more trips to be
made without a car.
Zoning laws that encourage mixed-use development, which reduces distances between
residential, commercial, retail, and recreational destinations (and encourage cycling and
walking)
Car-free cities, car-light cities, and eco-cities designed to eliminate the need to travel by
car for most inhabitants (Duranton et al, 2011).
Transit-oriented developments are residential and commercial areas designed to
maximize access to public transport by providing a transit station or stop (train station,
metro station, tram stop, or bus stop).
Supply and Demand
i.
ii.
Widening works under way on the M25 motorway to increase the number of lanes.
During rush hour, right turns onto the side street shown here are prohibited in order to
prevent rat running
4
Adding more capacity at bottlenecks (such as by adding more lanes at the expense of
hard shoulders or safety zones, or by removing local obstacles like bridge supports and
widening tunnels)
Adding more capacity over the whole of a route (generally by adding more lanes)
Creating new routes
Traffic management improvements (see separate section below)
Reduction of demand can include:
Parking restrictions, making motor vehicle use less attractive by increasing the monetary
and non-monetary costs of parking, introducing greater competition for limited city or
road space. Most transport planning experts agree that free parking distorts the market in
favour of car travel, exacerbating congestion.
Park and ride facilities allowing parking at a distance and allowing continuation by public
transport or ride sharing. Park-and-ride car parks are commonly found at metro stations,
freeway entrances in suburban areas, and at the edge of smaller cities.
Reduction of road capacity to force traffic onto other travel modes. Methods include
traffic calming and the shared space concept.
Road pricing, charging money for access onto a road/specific area at certain times,
congestion levels or for certain road users
"Cap and trade", in which only licensed cars are allowed on the roads.
1.6 CONGESTION PARAMETERS/INDICATORS
In general, traffic streams are not uniform, but vary over both space and time. Because of that,
measurement of the variables of interest for traffic flow theory is in fact the sampling of a
random variable. The traffic congestion parameters are labelled as flow, speed, and
concentration.
i.
Flow Rates
(1)
Where:
q = Flow rate (veh/sec. or veh/min. or veh/hr.)
N = Total number of vehicles observed
T = Elapsed time (second)
Flow rates are usually expressed in terms of vehicles per hour, although the actual measurement
interval can be much less. Concern has been expressed, however, about the sustainability of high
volumes measured over very short intervals (such as 30 seconds or one minute) when
investigating high rates of flow. The 1985 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 1985) suggests
using at least 15-minute intervals, although there are also situations in which the detail provided
by five minute or one minute data is valuable.
ii.
Speeds
Measurement of the speed of an individual vehicle requires observation over both time and
space. In the literature, the distinction has frequently been made between different ways of
calculating the average speed of a set of vehicles. The first way of calculating speeds, namely
taking the arithmetic mean of the observation, is termed the time mean speed because it is an
average of observations taken over time. Time mean speed is given by:
n
1
Ui t = N
i=1
Where:
t = Time mean speed (m/s or km/hr.)
N = number of observations
Ui = average speed of the ith vehicle (m/s or km/hr.)\
(2)
s =
1
ti
N i=1
(3)
The practical significance of the difference between space mean speed and time mean speed is
minimal. However, it is important to note that for traffic flow theory purists, the only correct
way to measure average travel velocity is to calculate space-mean speed directly.
iii.
Concentration
Concentration has in the past been used as a synonym for density. For example, Gerlough and
Huber (1975) wrote, "Although concentration (the number of vehicles per unit length) implies
measurement along a distance." It seems more useful to use concentration as a broader term
encompassing both density and occupancy. The first is a measure of concentration over space;
the second measure concentration over time of the same vehicle stream.
Density can be measured only along a length. If only point measurements are available, density
needs to be calculated, either from occupancy or from speed and flow.
The relationship between these parameters of the flow may be derived as follows: consider a
short cross section of highway length L in which N vehicles passing a point in this section during
a time interval T, all vehicles travelling in the same direction (Salter, 1974).
The volume of flow Q = N/T
The density D = Average no. of vehicles travelling over L/L
Density =
Volume
Space Mean Speed
(4)
Where:
Volume of flow Q, is rate of flow expressed in vehicle per hour.
1.7 HEADWAY DISTRIBUTION
Time Headway is the time interval between the arrivals of successive vehicles crossing a given
section of the road. Poisson and Binomial are the two distributions in headway study the choice
of which is dependent on the volume of traffic with each exhibiting unique characteristics and
distributions.
p ( x )=
m e
x!
(5)
Where,
P (x) = the probability that x vehicle will arrive during counting period of t,
m = average number of vehicles arriving during a period of duration t, and computed as:
m=
(6)
Px
(1P)nx
For x = 0, 1, 2,, n
Where:
P = Probability that one car arrives
(7)
P (x) =
Px
n!
x ! ( nx ) !
n!
x ! ( nx ) !
Px
(1P)nx
(8)
University of Ilorin is located in the ancient city of Ilorin about 500 kilometres from Abuja, the
Federal Capital Territory and about 15 kilometers from the city centre (Ilorin), the capital of
Kwara state and it is situated between latitude and longitude 8 0 2804.67 and 40 3945.97
respectively. University of Ilorin main trunk road connects the bridge at 8.2 kilometers from the
university gate and about 2 kilometers from the senate building (Amao, 2010). Two minor streets
(entering and exiting the universitys staff quarters) intersect this main road at about 500
meters and 7 kilometers from the school gate. There are a total of 25 number speed calming
bumps up to the Universitys Senate Building measuring about 10.4 kilometers from the
University gate.
The main trunk road lanes measure 3.8m wide and a median 3.5 meters starting from the gate
and terminating about 700 metres after the minor street intersection.
The issue of traffic delay along the main trunk road linking the University of Ilorin gate and the
main campus draws significant attention each day. Movement of both staff and students to the
university is becoming not only more and more difficult but also is characterised by discomfort,
delays, waste of time, energy and resources (Adekunle and Tolu, 2011). The problem is more
pronounced during the peak periods of morning and evening when vehicles stand still in long
queues resulting in stress and reduction in the productive hours of commuters.
There are however, occasions when traffic congestion becomes most frustrating and unbearable
besides when the school is in session; during the post UTME exercise and during the post
graduate qualifying exams. During these periods, the length of queue experienced is longer than
normal (i.e. when the school is in session).
2.1 CAUSES OF TRAFFIC CONGESTION ON THE MAIN TRUNK ROAD
2.1.1 Security Check Point
The intermittent slowdown of vehicles at the University gate by security agents has led to several
congestion issues due to slow passage of these vehicles.
9
2.1.2
In addition to the aforementioned, speed calming measures is another cause of congestion on this
section of the road.
Speed bumps are used in order to break high speed vehicles and increase safety on a roadway.
The road leading to the University is characterised by speed bumps that help break speeds of fast
moving vehicles in order to increase safety on the road.
3.0
METHODOLOGY
The data required for this study includes information on traffic volumes and characteristics.
These were collected through primary and secondary sources. The primary data which represent
firsthand information were obtained through direct field observation and field data collection
while the secondary data were collected from journals, textbooks, the internets and past research
reports.
Two methods of traffic count were employed in this exercise:
i.
ii.
10
ENTRY LANE
11
Peak
minutes
308
361
15
Vehicle
s
Col. 2
416
291
332
310
Sum Total`
1349
9:05-9:20 am
9:20-9:35 am
9:35-9:50 am
9:50-10:05 am
Sum Total`
390
279
260
176
1105
9:05-9:20 am
9:20-9:35 am
9:35-9:50 am
9:50-10:05 am
Sum Total`
337
310
198
214
1059
Flow Rates
(Veh./min.)
(Col. 2/Col. 1)
28
19
22
21
23Veh./min OR
1349Veh./hr
EXIT LANE
26
19
17
12
19Veh./min. OR
1105Veh. /hr.
Peak
minutes
416
390
ENTRY LANE
31
14
17
14
19Veh. /min. OR
1144Veh./hr.
EXIT LANE
22
21
13
14
18Veh. /min. OR
1059Veh./hr.
ENTRY LANE
12
15
Peak 15
464
337
Peak 15
3.3
3.3.1
8:00-8:15 am
8:15-8:30 am
8:30-8:45 am
8: 45-9:00 am
Sum Total`
376
433
302
219
1330
9:05-9:20 am
9:20-9:35 am
9:35-9:50 am
9:50-10:05 am
Sum Total`
401
411
282
255
1349
25
29
20
15
22Veh. /min. OR
1330Veh./hr.
EXIT LANE
27
27
19
17
23Veh. /min. OR
1349Veh./hr.
433
411
COMPUTATION OF RESULTS
FLOW RATE: For each of the days the traffic survey was carried out, (26 th July, 18th, 20th and
22nd August, 2015) the flow rates were computed for both entry and exit lanes and presented as
3.3.2
shown in tables 1,2,3, and 4 respectively as well as the peak 15minutes traffic.
DENSITY: Recall from equation 4 above that Density/concentration is given as shown below:
Density =
Volume
Space Mean Speed
22ndAugust, 2015:
ENTRY LANE
= 1293Veh. /hr
EXIT LANE
= 1150Veh. /hr.
ENTRY LANE
= 1349Veh./hr
EXIT LANE
= 1105Veh. /hr
ENTRY LANE
= 1144Veh./hr
EXIT LANE
= 1059Veh./hr.
ENTRY LANE:
= 1330Veh./hr
EXIT LANE:
= 1349Veh./hr.
13
22ndAugust, 2015:
1293 veh/hr
37.4 km/hr
ENTRY LANE
= 35veh/km
EXIT LANE
= 31veh/km
ENTRY LANE
1349 veh/hr
37.4 km/hr
= 36veh/km
EXIT LANE
= 30veh/km
ENTRY LANE
= 31veh/km
EXIT LANE
1059 veh/hr
37.4 km/hr
= 28veh/km
ENTRY LANE:
1330 veh/hr
37.4 km/hr
= 36veh/km
1349 veh/hr
37.4 km/hr
= 36veh/km
EXIT LANE:
The average density per lane per week is 35veh/km (entry lane) and 31veh/km (exit lane).
3.4 SPEED STUDY SURVEY
Speed studies are used to determine the speed distribution of a traffic stream at a specific
location. The data gathered in spot speed studies are used to determine vehicle speed percentiles,
which are useful in making speed- related decisions.
Unlike traffic volume survey, speed study is a bit tedious in that it requires absolute care in order
to be able to track vehicles plate numbers as drivers tend to vary their vehicles speed.
14
Cumulative
Frequency (%)
1.898734
3.797468
5.063291
7.594937
8.227848
12.02532
13.29114
13.92405
14.55696
17.08861
20.25316
21.51899
22.78481
25.31646
25.94937
30.37975
31.01266
35.44304
40.50633
45.56962
46.83544
48.73418
52.53165
53.79747
54.43038
56.96203
60.12658
61.39241
63.92405
64.55696
66.4557
67.72152
69.62025
70.25316
71.51899
75.31646
11.45
16.86
11.46
21.17
17.26
13.58
11.50
15.73
06.22
08.72
11.81
22.51
18.31
14.67
05:53.33
06:10.19
06:21.65
06:42.82
07:00.08
07:13.66
07:25.16
07:40.89
07:47.11
07:55.83
08:07.64
08:30.15
08:48.46
09:03.13
480s
8.7
5.9
8.7
4.7
5.8
7.4
8.7
6.4
16.1
11.5
8.5
4.4
5.5
6.8
512.7 m/s
3
2
2
4
1
1
1
2
3
1
5
2
3
9
158
1.898734
1.265823
1.265823
2.531646
0.632911
0.632911
0.632911
1.265823
1.898734
0.632911
3.164557
1.265823
1.898734
5.696203
77.21519
78.48101
79.74684
82.27848
82.91139
83.5443
84.17722
85.44304
87.34177
87.97468
91.13924
92.40506
94.3038
100
100%
1
U i = SUM [(1:50)/50] = 512.7/50 = 10.3m/s (37.1Km/hr.).
t = N
i=1
16
s =
1
ti
N i=1
=[
100
1
x 480 ] =
50
100
9.6
= 10.4m/s (37.4Km/hr).
17
Travel
S/N
Cumulative
O
Time (s)
Time
(s)
Travel
Cumulative
Time (s)
Time
(s)
S/N
O
Travel
Cumulative
Time (s)
Time
(s)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
02.01
06.75
02.47
05.54
05.38
10.39
04.87
02.23
11.24
01.08
04.29
04.89
12.05
04.33
04.21
02.62
03.08
09.11
08.64
02.84
02.40
02.17
01.49
02.24
04.89
08.17
03.60
05.50
05.52
10.86
01.34
02.37
09.57
03.36
03.11
01.50
02.94
02.43
02.77
02.24
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
84
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
09.94
16.40
01.27
03.11
05.87
01.46
13.08
03.51
03.63
01.90
20.75
05.79
09.97
03.25
01.15
02.15
06.30
01.70
01.79
03.87
12.45
07.71
09.18
06:16.93
06:33.33
06:34.60
06:37.71
06:43.58
06:45.04
06:58.12
07:01.63
07:05.26
07:07.16
07:27.91
07:33.70
07:43.67
07:46.92
07:48.07
07:50.22
07:56.52
07:58.22
08:00.01
08:03.88
08:16.33
08:24.04
08:33.22
08.87
08:42.09
02.01
08.76
11.23
16.77
22.15
32.54
37.41
39.64
50.88
51.96
56.25
01:01.14
01:13.19
01:17.52
01:21.73
01:24.35
01:27.43
01:36.54
01:45.18
01:48.02
01:50.42
01:52.59
01:54.08
01:56.32
02:01.21
02:09.38
02:12.98
02:18.48
02:24.00
02:34.86
02:36.20
02:38.57
02:48.14
02:51.50
02:54.61
02:56.11
02:59.05
03:01.48
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
03:04.25
03:06.49
02.44 03:08.93
03.68 03:12.61
06.45 03:19.06
02.58 03:21.64
09.94 03:31.58
02.93 03:34.51
08.28 03:42.79
03.20 03:45.99
04.12 03:50.11
01.98 03:52.09
03.90 03:55.99
03.55 03:59.54
11.60 04:11.14
12.45 04:23.59
10.43 04:34.02
04.76 04:38.78
01.99 04:40.77
13.15 04:53.92
01.41 04:55.33
01.65 04:56.98
14.43 05:11.41
01.13 05:12.54
03.77 05:16.31
01.33 05:17.64
02.44 05:20.08
04.28 05:24.36
02.29 05:26.65
04.99 05:31.64
05.23 05:36.87
04.23 05:41.10
02.48 05:43.58
09.33 05:52.91
02.85 05:55.76
02.60 05:58.36
03.13 06:01.49
05.50 06:06.99
18
ncy
P(x)=
nx
f
(1P)
52 X
(1P)nx
f2/F
F
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
14
0
0
0
6
8
6
3
4
4
10
3
4
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
18
32
30
18
28
32
90
30
44
24
13
14
0
Total
52
373
0
0
0
54
112
150
108
196
256
810
200
484
288
169
196
0
3023
0.0005
0.0041
0.0160
0.0415
0.0796
0.1203
0.1492
0.1563
0.1411
0.1115
0.0780
0.0489
0.0276
0.0142
0.0066
0.0074
0.026}
0.211}
0.832}
2.159} = 13.62
4.138}
6.253}
7.759
8.123
7.338
5.798
4.059}
2.542}
1.436} = 9.5
0.736}
0.345}
0.383}
1.0028
52.183
^
P is the estimated value of binomial parameter P, used in fitting,
19
29.47
1.16
1.97
2.18
17.25
12.74
64.77
is the estimated value of binomial parameter n, used in fitting, these parameters may be
373
52
= 7.17
fx
2
}/ [N-1] = {3023
2
S = { fx
2
(373)2
}/ 51 = 6.81
52
f2
/F -
= 64.77-52
= 12.77
df = 6 2 = 4
20.05
= 9.49
20
Probability
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08 Probalility Curve
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
12
10
8
6
Obs.Freq.
4
2
0
0
10
12
21
14
16
Combined Plot
12
10
8
6
Frequency
Probability
Theoretical Frequency
Observed Frequency
4
2
0
0
10
12
14
16
4
27
12
16
7
6
1
4
4
6
2
0
27
24
48
28
30
6
28
32
54
20
0.013167547
0.057015481
0.123438516
0.178162924
0.192861366
0.167017943
0.120531282
0.074557207
0.040354088
0.0194148
0.008406609
22
1.31675475
5.701548067
12.34385157
17.81629243
19.28613655
16.70179425
12.05312819
7.455720721
4.03540884
1.941480031
0.840660853
4
44
0.003309147 0.330914681
2
24
0.00119405
0.119405048
2
26
0.000397711 0.039771066
1
14
0.000123006 0.012300623
2
28
0.000123006 0.012300623
Total
100
433
100.0074683
Table 10 Poisson distribution Fitted to Light Traffic Arrivals for Lane 2
Headway
Observed
Total
Probability
Theoretical
x 3
(Sec)
Frequency
Vehicles
Frequency
m e
p ( x )=
x 3
xi
fi
fixi
x!
100m e
(
)
px=
x!
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
14
Total
5
9
15
13
9
10
5
10
4
5
1
3
5
2
2
2
100
0
9
30
39
36
50
30
70
32
45
10
33
60
26
28
28
526
0.021493601
0.082535429
0.158468024
0.202839071
0.194725508
0.14954919
0.095711482
0.052504584
0.0252022
0.010752939
0.004129129
0.001441441
0.000461261
0.000136249
3.73713E-05
3.73713E-05
23
2.149360136
8.253542922
15.84680241
20.28390708
19.4725508
14.95491902
9.57114817
5.250458425
2.520220044
1.075293885
0.412912852
0.144144123
0.046126119
0.013624946
0.003737128
0.003737128
100.0358021
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
observed
freq.
Frequency
theo. Freq.
observed freq.
frequency 10
10
Theoretical freq.
5
0
0
0
10 12 14 16
0 5 10 15 20
CONCLUSION
This study has been able to ascertain the parametric measurement of the congestion of motorised
movement within the main trunk road linking the gate and the main campus of the University of
Ilorin. This was achieved through field survey of traffic and a detailed survey of available
literature and internet resources. At the end of this study it was found that two major factors were
responsible for traffic congestion along this road; the constant stopping and checking of vehicles
at the University gate and availability of speed calming bumps to control high speed vehicles for
safety purpose. However, in order to curb this congestion menace, an alternative route into the
University is recommended strongly recommended.
24
REFERENCES
Adekunle J. A and Tolu I. A (2011): Traffic Congestion at Road Intersections in Ilorin, Nigeria.
Department of Geography, University of Ilorin, PMB 1515, Ilorin Nigeria, Australian Journal of
Basic and Applied Sciences, 5(9): 1439-1448, 2011
ISSN 1991-8178
Andrew Downie (2008-04-21). "The World's Worst Traffic Jams". Time, Retrieved 2008-06-20
"Congestion: A National Issue". 2008-08-29. Retrieved 2008-09-25.
Duranton et al (2011). "The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from U.S. Cities".
American Economic Review 101 (6): 261652. doi:10.1257/aer.101.6.2616.
"Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from U.S. Cities". journalistsresource.org.
Accessed August, 2015.
Greenshields (1965): Statistics with Applications to Highway Traffic Analysis. Second edition
25
26