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Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685

THE PARAMETRIC MEASUREMENT OF THE CONGESTION OF MOTORISED


MOVEMENT WITHIN THE MAIN TRUNK ROAD LINKING THE GATE AND THE
MAIN CAMPUS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF ILORIN
1.0

INTRODUCTION
1.1 CONGESTION

Congestion is an important problem for road transport and a main challenge for transport policy
at all levels (European Commission, 2012).
Traffic congestion is a condition on road networks that occurs as use increases, and is
characterized by slower speeds, longer trip times, and increased vehicular queueing. The most
common example is the physical use of roads by vehicles. When traffic demand is great enough
that the interaction between vehicles slows the speed of the traffic stream, this results in some
congestion (Downie, 2008). As demand approaches the capacity of a road (or of the intersections
along the road), extreme traffic congestion sets in. When vehicles are fully stopped for periods of
time, this is colloquially known as a traffic jam or traffic snarl-up. Traffic congestion can lead to
drivers becoming frustrated and engaging in road rage.

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685

Plate 1 Traffic congestion


Plate 2 Traffic flow along Unilorin Main Trunk road (exit lane)

1.2 CAUSES OF CONGESTION


Traffic congestion occurs when a volume of traffic or modal split generates demand for space
greater than the available road capacity; this point is commonly termed saturation. There are a
number of specific circumstances which cause or aggravate congestion; most of them reduce the
capacity of a road at a given point or over a certain length, or increase the number of vehicles
required for a given volume of people or goods (Andrew 2008).

1.3 NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF CONGESTION


Traffic congestion has a number of negative effects:

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
viii.

ix.
x.

1.4

Wasting time of motorists and passengers ("opportunity cost"). As a non-productive


activity for most people, congestion reduces regional economic health.
Delays, which may result in late arrival for employment, meetings, and education,
resulting in lost business, disciplinary action or other personal losses.
Inability to forecast travel time accurately, leading to drivers allocating more time to
travel "just in case", and less time on productive activities.
Wasted fuel increasing air pollution and carbon dioxide emissions owing to increased
idling, acceleration and braking.
Wear and tear on vehicles as a result of idling in traffic and frequent acceleration and
braking, leading to more frequent repairs and replacements.
Stressed and frustrated motorists, encouraging road rage and reduced health of motorists
Emergencies: blocked traffic may interfere with the passage of emergency vehicles
traveling to their destinations where they are urgently needed.
Spill-over effect from congested main arteries to secondary roads and side streets as
alternative routes are attempted ('rat running'), which may affect neighbourhood amenity
and real estate prices.
Higher chance of collisions due to tight spacing and constant stopping-and-going.
Road rage is aggressive or angry behaviour by a driver of an automobile or other motor
vehicle. Such behaviour might include rude gestures, verbal insults, deliberately driving
in an unsafe or threatening manner, or making threats. Road rage can lead to altercations,
assaults, and collisions which result in injuries and even deaths. It can be thought of as an
extreme case of aggressive driving.

POSITIVE EFFECTS OF CONGESTION


Congestion has the benefit of encouraging motorists to:
i.
ii.

iii.

Re-time their trips so that expensive road space is in full use for a greater number of
hours per day (Blunden 1983).
The standard response to congestion is to expand road space somehow, perhaps by
widening an existing road or else by adding a new road, bridge or tunnel. However, this
could well result in increased traffic flow, otherwise known as induced demand, causing
congestion to appear somewhere else
It has been argued that traffic congestion, by reducing road speeds in cities, could reduce
the frequency and severity of road accidents (Government subsidy - Final report, 2009).

1.5 CONGESTION COUNTERMEASURES


Junction improvements
i.

Grade separation, using bridges (or, less often, tunnels) freeing movements from having
to stop for other crossing movements
3

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


ii.

Ramp signalling, 'drip-feeding' merging traffic via traffic signals onto a congested
motorway-type roadway
Reducing junctions

i.
ii.
iii.

iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
viii.

Local-express lanes, providing through lanes that bypass junction on-ramp and off-ramp
zones
Limited-access road, roads that limit the type and amounts of driveways along their
lengths
Reversible lanes, where certain sections of highway operate in the opposite direction on
different times of the day/ days of the week, to match asymmetric demand. These pose a
potential for collisions, if drivers do not notice the change in direction indicators. This
may be controlled by variable-message signs or by movable physical separation
Separate lanes for specific user groups (usually with the goal of higher people throughput
with fewer vehicle
Bus lanes as part of a bus way system
HOV lanes, for vehicles with at least three (sometimes at least two) riders, intended to
encourage carpooling
Slugging, impromptu carpooling at HOV access points, on a hitchhiking or payment basis
Market-based carpooling with pre-negotiated financial incentives for the driver
Urban planning and design

i.
ii.

iii.

iv.
v.

City planning and urban design practices can have a huge impact on levels of future
traffic congestion, though they are of limited relevance for short-term change.
Grid plans including fused grid road network geometry, rather than tree-like network
topology which branches into cul-de-sacs (which reduce local traffic, but increase total
distances driven and discourage walking by reducing connectivity). This avoids
concentration of traffic on a small number of arterial roads and allows more trips to be
made without a car.
Zoning laws that encourage mixed-use development, which reduces distances between
residential, commercial, retail, and recreational destinations (and encourage cycling and
walking)
Car-free cities, car-light cities, and eco-cities designed to eliminate the need to travel by
car for most inhabitants (Duranton et al, 2011).
Transit-oriented developments are residential and commercial areas designed to
maximize access to public transport by providing a transit station or stop (train station,
metro station, tram stop, or bus stop).
Supply and Demand

i.
ii.

Widening works under way on the M25 motorway to increase the number of lanes.
During rush hour, right turns onto the side street shown here are prohibited in order to
prevent rat running
4

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


iii.

Congestion can be reduced by either increasing road capacity (supply), or by reducing


traffic (demand). Capacity can be increased in a number of ways, but needs to take
account of latent demand otherwise it may be used more strongly than anticipated. Critics
of the approach of adding capacity have compared it to "fighting obesity by letting out
your belt" (inducing demand that did not exist before). For example, when new lanes are
created, households with a second car that formerly was parked most of the time may
begin to use this second car for commuting. Reducing road capacity has in turn been
attacked as removing free choice as well as increasing travel costs and times, placing an
especially high burden on the low income residents who must commute to work.
Increased supply can include:

Adding more capacity at bottlenecks (such as by adding more lanes at the expense of
hard shoulders or safety zones, or by removing local obstacles like bridge supports and
widening tunnels)
Adding more capacity over the whole of a route (generally by adding more lanes)
Creating new routes
Traffic management improvements (see separate section below)
Reduction of demand can include:

Parking restrictions, making motor vehicle use less attractive by increasing the monetary
and non-monetary costs of parking, introducing greater competition for limited city or
road space. Most transport planning experts agree that free parking distorts the market in
favour of car travel, exacerbating congestion.
Park and ride facilities allowing parking at a distance and allowing continuation by public
transport or ride sharing. Park-and-ride car parks are commonly found at metro stations,
freeway entrances in suburban areas, and at the edge of smaller cities.
Reduction of road capacity to force traffic onto other travel modes. Methods include
traffic calming and the shared space concept.
Road pricing, charging money for access onto a road/specific area at certain times,
congestion levels or for certain road users
"Cap and trade", in which only licensed cars are allowed on the roads.
1.6 CONGESTION PARAMETERS/INDICATORS
In general, traffic streams are not uniform, but vary over both space and time. Because of that,
measurement of the variables of interest for traffic flow theory is in fact the sampling of a
random variable. The traffic congestion parameters are labelled as flow, speed, and
concentration.
i.

Flow Rates

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


Flow rates are collected directly through point measurements, and by definition require
measurement over time. They cannot be estimated from a single snapshot of a length of road.
Flow rates and time headways are related to each other as follows. Flow rate, q, is the number of
vehicles counted, divided by the elapsed time, T in seconds:
q = N/T -

(1)

Where:
q = Flow rate (veh/sec. or veh/min. or veh/hr.)
N = Total number of vehicles observed
T = Elapsed time (second)
Flow rates are usually expressed in terms of vehicles per hour, although the actual measurement
interval can be much less. Concern has been expressed, however, about the sustainability of high
volumes measured over very short intervals (such as 30 seconds or one minute) when
investigating high rates of flow. The 1985 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 1985) suggests
using at least 15-minute intervals, although there are also situations in which the detail provided
by five minute or one minute data is valuable.
ii.

Speeds

Measurement of the speed of an individual vehicle requires observation over both time and
space. In the literature, the distinction has frequently been made between different ways of
calculating the average speed of a set of vehicles. The first way of calculating speeds, namely
taking the arithmetic mean of the observation, is termed the time mean speed because it is an
average of observations taken over time. Time mean speed is given by:
n

1
Ui t = N
i=1

Where:
t = Time mean speed (m/s or km/hr.)
N = number of observations
Ui = average speed of the ith vehicle (m/s or km/hr.)\

(2)

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


The second term that is used in the literature is space mean speed, and it is defined as the average
speed of vehicles measured at an instant of time over a specified stretch of road. It is given by:
D

s =

1
ti
N i=1

(3)

The practical significance of the difference between space mean speed and time mean speed is
minimal. However, it is important to note that for traffic flow theory purists, the only correct
way to measure average travel velocity is to calculate space-mean speed directly.
iii.

Concentration

Concentration has in the past been used as a synonym for density. For example, Gerlough and
Huber (1975) wrote, "Although concentration (the number of vehicles per unit length) implies
measurement along a distance." It seems more useful to use concentration as a broader term
encompassing both density and occupancy. The first is a measure of concentration over space;
the second measure concentration over time of the same vehicle stream.
Density can be measured only along a length. If only point measurements are available, density
needs to be calculated, either from occupancy or from speed and flow.
The relationship between these parameters of the flow may be derived as follows: consider a
short cross section of highway length L in which N vehicles passing a point in this section during
a time interval T, all vehicles travelling in the same direction (Salter, 1974).
The volume of flow Q = N/T
The density D = Average no. of vehicles travelling over L/L
Density =

Volume
Space Mean Speed

(4)

Where:
Volume of flow Q, is rate of flow expressed in vehicle per hour.
1.7 HEADWAY DISTRIBUTION
Time Headway is the time interval between the arrivals of successive vehicles crossing a given
section of the road. Poisson and Binomial are the two distributions in headway study the choice
of which is dependent on the volume of traffic with each exhibiting unique characteristics and
distributions.

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


1.8 POISSON DISTRIBUTION: this can be used to describe the distribution of traffic arrivals for
light traffic.
The probabilities and theoretical frequencies of the distribution are estimated using Eq. 5 below
{Greenshields (1965):
x 3

p ( x )=

m e
x!

(5)

Where,
P (x) = the probability that x vehicle will arrive during counting period of t,
m = average number of vehicles arriving during a period of duration t, and computed as:
m=

total vehicles observed


total observatons

(6)

e = natural base of logarithms


1.9 BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION: The Binomial distribution can be used to describe the
distribution of traffic arrivals for congested traffic. This is a situation where the ratio of the
observed variance/mean is substantially less than one.
For traffic purposes, the binomial distribution uses the probabilities for an event happening as
specified by x times out of n trials as shown by the recursion formula in Eq. 7 (Greenshields
1965):
n
P (x) = C x

Px

(1P)nx

For x = 0, 1, 2,, n
Where:
P = Probability that one car arrives

(7)

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


Cnx

P (x) =

Px

n!
x ! ( nx ) !

= Combination of n things taken x at a time =

n!
x ! ( nx ) !

Px

(1P)nx

(8)

A REVIEW OF THE CONGESTION OF MOTORISED MOVEMENT WITHIN THE


MAIN TRUNK ROAD LINKING THE GATE AND THE MAIN CAMPUS OF THE
UNIVERSITY OF ILORIN
2.0

DESCRIPTION OF STUDY AREA

University of Ilorin is located in the ancient city of Ilorin about 500 kilometres from Abuja, the
Federal Capital Territory and about 15 kilometers from the city centre (Ilorin), the capital of
Kwara state and it is situated between latitude and longitude 8 0 2804.67 and 40 3945.97
respectively. University of Ilorin main trunk road connects the bridge at 8.2 kilometers from the
university gate and about 2 kilometers from the senate building (Amao, 2010). Two minor streets
(entering and exiting the universitys staff quarters) intersect this main road at about 500
meters and 7 kilometers from the school gate. There are a total of 25 number speed calming
bumps up to the Universitys Senate Building measuring about 10.4 kilometers from the
University gate.
The main trunk road lanes measure 3.8m wide and a median 3.5 meters starting from the gate
and terminating about 700 metres after the minor street intersection.
The issue of traffic delay along the main trunk road linking the University of Ilorin gate and the
main campus draws significant attention each day. Movement of both staff and students to the
university is becoming not only more and more difficult but also is characterised by discomfort,
delays, waste of time, energy and resources (Adekunle and Tolu, 2011). The problem is more
pronounced during the peak periods of morning and evening when vehicles stand still in long
queues resulting in stress and reduction in the productive hours of commuters.
There are however, occasions when traffic congestion becomes most frustrating and unbearable
besides when the school is in session; during the post UTME exercise and during the post
graduate qualifying exams. During these periods, the length of queue experienced is longer than
normal (i.e. when the school is in session).
2.1 CAUSES OF TRAFFIC CONGESTION ON THE MAIN TRUNK ROAD
2.1.1 Security Check Point
The intermittent slowdown of vehicles at the University gate by security agents has led to several
congestion issues due to slow passage of these vehicles.
9

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


Due to increasing level of insecurity in the country thereby calling for security consciousness and
as it concerns the University Authority, all vehicles entering and exiting the school are stopped
and checked appropriately by the security agents. Students are required to show their identity
before they are allowed entry. This exercise however becomes annoying as it leads to serious
traffic congestion thereby leading to delays and hence, increased journey time.

Vehicles in queue at the security check point

2.1.2

Speed Calming Measures

In addition to the aforementioned, speed calming measures is another cause of congestion on this
section of the road.
Speed bumps are used in order to break high speed vehicles and increase safety on a roadway.
The road leading to the University is characterised by speed bumps that help break speeds of fast
moving vehicles in order to increase safety on the road.
3.0

METHODOLOGY

The data required for this study includes information on traffic volumes and characteristics.
These were collected through primary and secondary sources. The primary data which represent
firsthand information were obtained through direct field observation and field data collection
while the secondary data were collected from journals, textbooks, the internets and past research
reports.
Two methods of traffic count were employed in this exercise:
i.
ii.

Manual counting and


Stop watch methods
3.1 PROCEDURE
Traffic Volume Survey

10

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


The exercise was carried out on 26th July, 18th, 20th and 22nd August, 2015 and began at 8:00am At
the assigned location for the traffic survey, each member of a three-member group was assigned
a responsibility. One member was taking the tally record of the volume of traffic, while the other
two were taking record of the vehicles plate numbers. This exercise was carried out at specified
time interval of fifteen minutes. At the end of every quarter (15 minutes), a line was drawn to
separate the previous count from the preceding count. This process was maintained for 12
quarters (three hours count). At the end of the exercise, data recorded was collated and tabulated
as shown in tables 1, 2, 3, and 4 for further analysis and discussion. The traffic volume count
survey was carried out manually and presented as shown in table 5. All the traffic counted was
inclusive of cars and buses.
This exercise was performed on both lanes of the main trunk road during congestion period and
during light traffic period.
3.2 DATA/RESULTS
Table 1[Post Graduate Qualifying Examination Day]
26th July, 2015
ENTRY LANE
Time (min)
Vehicles
Flow Rates (Veh.
Col. 1
Col. 2
/min.)
(Col. 2/Col. 1)
8:00-8:15 am
308
21
8:15-8:30 am
378
25
8:30-8:45 am
332
22
8: 45-9:00 am
275
18
Sum Total`
1298
22Veh./min OR
1293Veh. /hr.
EXIT LANE
8:00-8:15 am
361
24
8:15-8:30 am
223
15
8:30-8:45 am
297
20
8: 45-9:00 am
269
18
Sum Total`
1150
19Veh./min. OR
1150Veh. /hr.
Table 2 [Post UTME Day 2]
18th August, 2015

ENTRY LANE
11

Peak
minutes
308

361

15

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


Time (min)
Col. 1
8:00-8:15 am
8:15-8:30 am
8:30-8:45 am
8: 45-9:00 am

Vehicle
s
Col. 2
416
291
332
310

Sum Total`

1349

9:05-9:20 am
9:20-9:35 am
9:35-9:50 am
9:50-10:05 am
Sum Total`

390
279
260
176
1105

Table 3 [Post UTME Day 4]


20th August, 2015
minutes
8:00-8:15 am
464
8:15-8:30 am
214
8:30-8:45 am
258
8: 45-9:00 am
208
Sum Total`
1144

9:05-9:20 am
9:20-9:35 am
9:35-9:50 am
9:50-10:05 am
Sum Total`

337
310
198
214
1059

Table 4 [Post UTME Day 6]


22ndAugust, 2015
minutes

Flow Rates
(Veh./min.)
(Col. 2/Col. 1)
28
19
22
21
23Veh./min OR
1349Veh./hr
EXIT LANE
26
19
17
12
19Veh./min. OR
1105Veh. /hr.

Peak
minutes
416

390

ENTRY LANE
31
14
17
14
19Veh. /min. OR
1144Veh./hr.
EXIT LANE
22
21
13
14
18Veh. /min. OR
1059Veh./hr.

ENTRY LANE

12

15

Peak 15
464

337

Peak 15

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685

3.3
3.3.1

8:00-8:15 am
8:15-8:30 am
8:30-8:45 am
8: 45-9:00 am
Sum Total`

376
433
302
219
1330

9:05-9:20 am
9:20-9:35 am
9:35-9:50 am
9:50-10:05 am
Sum Total`

401
411
282
255
1349

25
29
20
15
22Veh. /min. OR
1330Veh./hr.
EXIT LANE
27
27
19
17
23Veh. /min. OR
1349Veh./hr.

433

411

COMPUTATION OF RESULTS
FLOW RATE: For each of the days the traffic survey was carried out, (26 th July, 18th, 20th and
22nd August, 2015) the flow rates were computed for both entry and exit lanes and presented as

3.3.2

shown in tables 1,2,3, and 4 respectively as well as the peak 15minutes traffic.
DENSITY: Recall from equation 4 above that Density/concentration is given as shown below:
Density =

Volume
Space Mean Speed

Where the volume per day is:


26th July, 2015:

18th August, 2015:

20th August, 2015:

22ndAugust, 2015:

ENTRY LANE

= 1293Veh. /hr

EXIT LANE

= 1150Veh. /hr.

ENTRY LANE

= 1349Veh./hr

EXIT LANE

= 1105Veh. /hr

ENTRY LANE

= 1144Veh./hr

EXIT LANE

= 1059Veh./hr.

ENTRY LANE:

= 1330Veh./hr

EXIT LANE:

= 1349Veh./hr.
13

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


The space mean speed as determined from the speed study from table 5 is = 37.4Km/hr
Thus, Density for each entry and exit lanes are computed below
26th July, 2015:

18th August, 2015:

20th August, 2015:

22ndAugust, 2015:

1293 veh/hr
37.4 km/hr

ENTRY LANE

= 35veh/km

EXIT LANE

1150 veh /hr


37.4 km/hr

= 31veh/km

ENTRY LANE

1349 veh/hr
37.4 km/hr

= 36veh/km

EXIT LANE

1105 veh /hr


37.4 km/hr

= 30veh/km

ENTRY LANE

1144 veh /hr


37.4 km/hr

= 31veh/km

EXIT LANE

1059 veh/hr
37.4 km/hr

= 28veh/km

ENTRY LANE:

1330 veh/hr
37.4 km/hr

= 36veh/km

1349 veh/hr
37.4 km/hr

= 36veh/km

EXIT LANE:

The average density per lane per week is 35veh/km (entry lane) and 31veh/km (exit lane).
3.4 SPEED STUDY SURVEY
Speed studies are used to determine the speed distribution of a traffic stream at a specific
location. The data gathered in spot speed studies are used to determine vehicle speed percentiles,
which are useful in making speed- related decisions.
Unlike traffic volume survey, speed study is a bit tedious in that it requires absolute care in order
to be able to track vehicles plate numbers as drivers tend to vary their vehicles speed.

14

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


The exercise was carried out during light traffic condition. Stop watch was used in this survey.
In this exercise, the average speed of vehicles measured at a point/location over a given interval
of time was determined.
Table 5 [LENGTH OF ROAD SECTION USED = 100METERS]
S/NO.
Travel
Individual speed Frequency Percentage
Cumulative
of vehicle m/s
Frequency (%)
Time (s) Time (s)
1
06.69
06.69
14.9
3
1.898734
2
05.59
12.28
17.9
3
1.898734
3
07.16
19.44
13.9
2
1.265823
4
04.79
24.23
20.9
4
2.531646
5
05.80
30.03
17.2
1
0.632911
6
02.20
32.23
45.5
6
3.797468
7
04.91
37.14
20.4
2
1.265823
8
03.11
40.25
32.2
1
0.632911
9
04.45
44.70
22.5
1
0.632911
10
09.76
54.46
10.2
4
2.531646
11
09.49 01:03.95
10.5
5
3.164557
12
07.40 01:11.35
13.5
2
1.265823
13
10.58 01:21.93
9.5
2
1.265823
14
07.82 01:29.75
12.8
4
2.531646
15
08.60 01:38.35
11.6
1
0.632911
16
12.85 01:51.20
7.8
7
4.43038
17
06.40 01:57.60
15.6
1
0.632911
18
08.53 02:06.13
11.7
7
4.43038
19
04.57 02:10.70
21.9
8
5.063291
20
09.58 02:20.28
10.4
8
5.063291
21
13.72 02:34.00
7.3
2
1.265823
22
08.71 02:42.71
11.5
3
1.898734
23
10.83 02:53.54
9.2
6
3.797468
24
10.65 03:04.19
9.4
2
1.265823
25
12.76 03:16.95
7.8
1
0.632911
26
15.60 03:32.55
6.4
4
2.531646
27
21.03 03:53.58
4.8
5
3.164557
28
11.77 04:05.35
8.5
2
1.265823
29
14.17 04:19.52
7.1
4
2.531646
30
12.22 04:31.74
8.2
1
0.632911
31
12.17 04:43.91
8.2
3
1.898734
32
10.82 04:54.73
9.2
2
1.265823
33
09.08 05:03.81
11.0
3
1.898734
34
07.81 05:11.62
12.8
1
0.632911
35
16.45 05:28.07
6.1
2
1.265823
36
13.81 05:41.88
7.2
6
3.797468
15

Cumulative
Frequency (%)
1.898734
3.797468
5.063291
7.594937
8.227848
12.02532
13.29114
13.92405
14.55696
17.08861
20.25316
21.51899
22.78481
25.31646
25.94937
30.37975
31.01266
35.44304
40.50633
45.56962
46.83544
48.73418
52.53165
53.79747
54.43038
56.96203
60.12658
61.39241
63.92405
64.55696
66.4557
67.72152
69.62025
70.25316
71.51899
75.31646

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

11.45
16.86
11.46
21.17
17.26
13.58
11.50
15.73
06.22
08.72
11.81
22.51
18.31
14.67

05:53.33
06:10.19
06:21.65
06:42.82
07:00.08
07:13.66
07:25.16
07:40.89
07:47.11
07:55.83
08:07.64
08:30.15
08:48.46
09:03.13
480s

8.7
5.9
8.7
4.7
5.8
7.4
8.7
6.4
16.1
11.5
8.5
4.4
5.5
6.8
512.7 m/s

3
2
2
4
1
1
1
2
3
1
5
2
3
9
158

1.898734
1.265823
1.265823
2.531646
0.632911
0.632911
0.632911
1.265823
1.898734
0.632911
3.164557
1.265823
1.898734
5.696203

77.21519
78.48101
79.74684
82.27848
82.91139
83.5443
84.17722
85.44304
87.34177
87.97468
91.13924
92.40506
94.3038
100
100%

Figure 2 A Graph of Cumulative Frequency against Vehicle Speed


From the graph of the cumulative frequency against vehicle speed, the 85 th and 50th percentile
speeds are 17m/s (61.2Km/hr.) and 9m/s (32.4Km/hr.) respectively.
i.

Time Mean Speed


n

1
U i = SUM [(1:50)/50] = 512.7/50 = 10.3m/s (37.1Km/hr.).
t = N
i=1

16

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


ii.

Space Mean Speed


D

s =

1
ti
N i=1

=[

100
1
x 480 ] =
50

100
9.6

= 10.4m/s (37.4Km/hr).

17

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


S/N
O

Travel
S/N
Cumulative
O
Time (s)
Time
(s)

Travel
Cumulative
Time (s)
Time
(s)

S/N
O

Travel
Cumulative
Time (s)
Time
(s)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38

02.01
06.75
02.47
05.54
05.38
10.39
04.87
02.23
11.24
01.08
04.29
04.89
12.05
04.33
04.21
02.62
03.08
09.11
08.64
02.84
02.40
02.17
01.49
02.24
04.89
08.17
03.60
05.50
05.52
10.86
01.34
02.37
09.57
03.36
03.11
01.50
02.94
02.43

02.77
02.24

77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
84
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

09.94
16.40
01.27
03.11
05.87
01.46
13.08
03.51
03.63
01.90
20.75
05.79
09.97
03.25
01.15
02.15
06.30
01.70
01.79
03.87
12.45
07.71
09.18

06:16.93
06:33.33
06:34.60
06:37.71
06:43.58
06:45.04
06:58.12
07:01.63
07:05.26
07:07.16
07:27.91
07:33.70
07:43.67
07:46.92
07:48.07
07:50.22
07:56.52
07:58.22
08:00.01
08:03.88
08:16.33
08:24.04
08:33.22

08.87

08:42.09

02.01
08.76
11.23
16.77
22.15
32.54
37.41
39.64
50.88
51.96
56.25
01:01.14
01:13.19
01:17.52
01:21.73
01:24.35
01:27.43
01:36.54
01:45.18
01:48.02
01:50.42
01:52.59
01:54.08
01:56.32
02:01.21
02:09.38
02:12.98
02:18.48
02:24.00
02:34.86
02:36.20
02:38.57
02:48.14
02:51.50
02:54.61
02:56.11
02:59.05
03:01.48

39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49

50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74

75
76

03:04.25
03:06.49

02.44 03:08.93
03.68 03:12.61
06.45 03:19.06
02.58 03:21.64
09.94 03:31.58
02.93 03:34.51
08.28 03:42.79
03.20 03:45.99
04.12 03:50.11
01.98 03:52.09
03.90 03:55.99
03.55 03:59.54
11.60 04:11.14
12.45 04:23.59
10.43 04:34.02
04.76 04:38.78
01.99 04:40.77
13.15 04:53.92
01.41 04:55.33
01.65 04:56.98
14.43 05:11.41
01.13 05:12.54
03.77 05:16.31
01.33 05:17.64
02.44 05:20.08
04.28 05:24.36
02.29 05:26.65
04.99 05:31.64
05.23 05:36.87
04.23 05:41.10
02.48 05:43.58
09.33 05:52.91
02.85 05:55.76
02.60 05:58.36
03.13 06:01.49
05.50 06:06.99
18

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


Table 6 Showing Traffic Count for Congested Distribution Studies
Table 7 Binomial Distribution Fitted to Congested Traffic Arrivals
Headw Observ
Total
Probability
Theoretical
ay
ed
Vehicles
Frequency
2
n x
(Sec)
C
Freque
fixi
fi x i
P(x)= C x P
xi

ncy
P(x)=

nx
f
(1P)
52 X
(1P)nx

f2/F

F
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
14

0
0
0
6
8
6
3
4
4
10
3
4
2
1
1
0

0
0
0
18
32
30
18
28
32
90
30
44
24
13
14
0

Total

52

373

0
0

0
54
112
150
108
196
256
810
200
484
288
169
196
0
3023

0.0005
0.0041
0.0160
0.0415
0.0796
0.1203
0.1492
0.1563
0.1411
0.1115
0.0780
0.0489
0.0276
0.0142
0.0066
0.0074

0.026}
0.211}
0.832}
2.159} = 13.62
4.138}
6.253}
7.759
8.123
7.338
5.798
4.059}
2.542}
1.436} = 9.5
0.736}
0.345}
0.383}

1.0028

52.183

For Binomial distribution,


m is the mean = nP
S2 is the variance = nP (1-P)
If

^
P is the estimated value of binomial parameter P, used in fitting,

19

29.47

1.16
1.97
2.18
17.25

12.74

64.77

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


n^

is the estimated value of binomial parameter n, used in fitting, these parameters may be

estimated by the relationships


^
P = (m- S2)/m
n^ = m/P = m2/ (m- S2)
Where m and S2 are computed from the observed data
Thus, from the data shown in table 7 above,
m=

373
52

= 7.17
fx
2
}/ [N-1] = {3023

2
S = { fx
2

(373)2
}/ 51 = 6.81
52

S2/m = 6.81/7.17 = 0.95


^
P = (7.17-6.81)/7.17 = 0.1
n^ = 7.17/0.1 = 72

To determine the degree of freedom

f2

/F -

= 64.77-52

= 12.77
df = 6 2 = 4
20.05

= 9.49

20

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685

Figure 3 Chi-squared Distribution Table


Graph of Fre que ncy against Time Headway

Plot of Probability against Time Headway

Probability

0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08 Probalility Curve
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

12
10
8
6

Frequency Theo. Freq.

Obs.Freq.

4
2
0
0

Time Headway (sec)

10

12

Time Headway (sec)

21

14

16

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


Figure 4 Poisson Distribution Fitted to Light Traffic Arrivals

Figure 5 Poisson Distribution Fitted to Light Traffic Arrivals

Combined Plot
12
10
8
6

Frequency
Probability

Theoretical Frequency

Observed Frequency

4
2
0
0

10

12

14

16

Time Headway (sec)

Figure 6 Combined Poisson distribution Fitted to Light Traffic Arrivals


Table 8 Poisson distribution Fitted to Light Traffic Arrivals for Lane 1
Headway
Observed
Total
Probability
Theoretical
x
3
(Sec)
Frequency
Vehicles
Frequency
m e
p ( x )=
xi
fi
fixi
x!
100mx e3
p ( x )=
x!
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

4
27
12
16
7
6
1
4
4
6
2

0
27
24
48
28
30
6
28
32
54
20

0.013167547
0.057015481
0.123438516
0.178162924
0.192861366
0.167017943
0.120531282
0.074557207
0.040354088
0.0194148
0.008406609
22

1.31675475
5.701548067
12.34385157
17.81629243
19.28613655
16.70179425
12.05312819
7.455720721
4.03540884
1.941480031
0.840660853

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


13
14
14

4
44
0.003309147 0.330914681
2
24
0.00119405
0.119405048
2
26
0.000397711 0.039771066
1
14
0.000123006 0.012300623
2
28
0.000123006 0.012300623
Total
100
433
100.0074683
Table 10 Poisson distribution Fitted to Light Traffic Arrivals for Lane 2
Headway
Observed
Total
Probability
Theoretical
x 3
(Sec)
Frequency
Vehicles
Frequency
m e
p ( x )=
x 3
xi
fi
fixi
x!
100m e
(
)
px=
x!
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
14

Total

5
9
15
13
9
10
5
10
4
5
1
3
5
2
2
2
100

0
9
30
39
36
50
30
70
32
45
10
33
60
26
28
28
526

0.021493601
0.082535429
0.158468024
0.202839071
0.194725508
0.14954919
0.095711482
0.052504584
0.0252022
0.010752939
0.004129129
0.001441441
0.000461261
0.000136249
3.73713E-05
3.73713E-05

23

2.149360136
8.253542922
15.84680241
20.28390708
19.4725508
14.95491902
9.57114817
5.250458425
2.520220044
1.075293885
0.412912852
0.144144123
0.046126119
0.013624946
0.003737128
0.003737128
100.0358021

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685

Poisson Distribution Graph for Lane1


due to Light Lraffic Observed

Poisson Distribution Graph for Lane 2


due to Light Lraffic Observed

30

25

25

20

20

15

15
observed
freq.

Frequency

theo. Freq.

observed freq.

frequency 10

10

Theoretical freq.

5
0

0
0

10 12 14 16

0 5 10 15 20

Time Headway (Sec)

Time Headway (Sec)

Figure 7 Poisson distribution Fitted to Light Traffic Arrivals

Figure 8 Poisson Distribution Fitted to Light Traffic Arrivals

CONCLUSION
This study has been able to ascertain the parametric measurement of the congestion of motorised
movement within the main trunk road linking the gate and the main campus of the University of
Ilorin. This was achieved through field survey of traffic and a detailed survey of available
literature and internet resources. At the end of this study it was found that two major factors were
responsible for traffic congestion along this road; the constant stopping and checking of vehicles
at the University gate and availability of speed calming bumps to control high speed vehicles for
safety purpose. However, in order to curb this congestion menace, an alternative route into the
University is recommended strongly recommended.

24

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685

REFERENCES
Adekunle J. A and Tolu I. A (2011): Traffic Congestion at Road Intersections in Ilorin, Nigeria.
Department of Geography, University of Ilorin, PMB 1515, Ilorin Nigeria, Australian Journal of
Basic and Applied Sciences, 5(9): 1439-1448, 2011
ISSN 1991-8178
Andrew Downie (2008-04-21). "The World's Worst Traffic Jams". Time, Retrieved 2008-06-20
"Congestion: A National Issue". 2008-08-29. Retrieved 2008-09-25.
Duranton et al (2011). "The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from U.S. Cities".
American Economic Review 101 (6): 261652. doi:10.1257/aer.101.6.2616.
"Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from U.S. Cities". journalistsresource.org.
Accessed August, 2015.
Greenshields (1965): Statistics with Applications to Highway Traffic Analysis. Second edition
25

Transportation Engineering Practical : CVT 685


Maximum fares for metropolitan and outer metropolitan buses from January 2014 - Draft Report
page 37, citing work by LECG "Value of Sydney bus externalities and optimal Government
subsidy - Final report", September 2009, page 17
Salter, R.J. (1974): Highway Traffic Analysis and Design. London: Macmillan

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