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JTUSCI-10; No. of Pages 12
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Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
Journal of Taibah University for Science xxx (2013) xxxxxx
The climate change implication on Jordan: A case study using GIS

and Artificial Neural Networks for weather forecasting
Mohammed Matouq a,1 , Tayel El-Hasan b, , Hussam Al-Bilbisi c , Monther Abdelhadi d ,
Muna Hindiyeh e , Saeid Eslamian f , Salman Duheisat g
a
Faculty of Engineering Technology, Al-Balqa Applied University, P.O. Box 4486, Amman 1131, Jordan
b Department of Geology, Taibah University, Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah, Saudi Arabia
c Faculty of Art, University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan
d Faculty of Engineering, Al-Ahliyya Amman University, Amman, Jordan
e Secretary General Assistant for Laboratories & Water Quality Affairs, Water Authority of Jordan
f Collage of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Iran
g Faculty of Engineering Technology, Al-Balqa Applied University, Amman, Jordan
Abstract
The meteorological data such as rainfall and temperatures, covering the period between 1979 and 2008, has been analyzed. The
data were simulated using the geographic information systems (GIS) and computer software MATLAB. The output results were
converted into geographical maps. Three parameters were analyzed: annual mean maximum temperature, annual mean minimum
temperature, and mean annual rainfall during the period (19792008). The analyzed results were also used to forecast for the period
(20092018).
The results show that no change has occurred in the mean annual rainfall in both northern and eastern part, while it has increased in
the central region of Jordan. Although local temperatures fluctuate naturally, but over the past 50 years, the mean local temperature
in Jordan has increased rapidly since 1992 by 1.52 C.
It is noticed from the data that the change in both maximum and minimum temperatures has clearly begun after 1991, in which
this phenomenon may give an indication of changing point in climate of Jordan. As for prediction is concern, the show continuous
increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures in the eastern, northern and southern regions of Jordan.
The application of GIS in this study was successfully used to analyze the data and to produce easy to use maps to understand
the impact of global warming. This application is the first in terms of its applicability in Jordan. The authors believe that the results
of this study will be of great help to the decision makers in the field of environment in Jordan.
2013 Taibah University. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Climate change; GIS; Jordan; Arid region; Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
Corresponding author. Tel.: +966 507189954.

E-mail addresses: tayel.elhasan@gmail.com,
thassan@taibahu.edu.sa (T. El-Hasan).
1 On sabbatical leave at Taibah University, Department of Geology.
Peer review under responsibility of Taibah University
1658-3655 2013 Taibah University. Production and hosting by

Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtusci.2013.04.001
1. Introduction
Recently, there has been an increased attention toward
the phenomena of climate change in the Arab countries,
after experiencing historical and sudden changes in
weather [1]. It is expected that most of the Arab countries
will be affected by increased climate variability and
extreme events such as droughts, loss of soil fertility and
erosion, leaching of mineral fertilizers, and heat stress on
animals. The demand for energy will also rise especially
in summer due to unexpected increase in temperature in
Please cite this article in press as: M. Matouq, et al. The climate change implication on Jordan: A case study using GIS and
Artificial Neural Networks for weather forecasting, J. Taibah Univ. Sci. (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtusci.2013.04.001
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M. Matouq et al. / Journal of Taibah University for Science xxx (2013) xxxxxx
countries that are used to live in a mild weather condition and do not need air-conditioning, such as Jordan. In
addition, it is expected that the climate change impacts
will seriously hit water resources and be the main issue in
Arab countries with respect to climate change. Some of
the Arab countries have launched action plans to reduce
the effects of desertification [2]. There are also many
technical programs in the Arab countries to assist in
desertification problems [2]. Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [3] provided time-series plots and global
maps depicting trends of precipitation and temperature.
In Arab countries, the energy sector is characterized
by heavy reliance on fossil fuels. As a result, the sector has adverse environmental impacts on air, water and
land resources. Total carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions
are estimated at around 900 million tons in 2001 [4].
With a share per capita equals to 3.1 metric tons/year,
which is around the world share per capita that equals to
3.87 metric tons/year [4].
Urban population growth in most Arab countries is
high especially in the Arabian Gulf area. The percentage
of urban population in year 2000 varied widely across
the region. Therefore, access to clean, reliable, and sustainable energy is vital to socio-economic development
and poverty eradication in the Arab countries. Hence, the
increase in future demands for modern energy services
are expected to accelerate proportionately [5,6].
Arab countries region will share the highest percentage of carbon dioxide, which is the primary gas
among the Green House Gases (GHG) for almost all
Arab countries if they rely on fossil fuel use, in which
energy sector is considered as the largest source of GHG
emissions. Agriculture was the second largest emitters
for almost all countries. The level of carbon dioxide
emissions varied widely among reporting Arab countries
reflecting, as stated earlier, disparities in energy consumption and levels of development. In 2008, three
countries (Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Algeria) have carbon
dioxide emissions of 16.6, 2.69, 3.23 metric ton/capita
respectively [6,7].
One of the very recent studies conducted on the Dead
Sea to build record for the climate and seismic history of
the Arab countries during the past several hundred thousand years had revealed that the phenomena of climate
change was not a new one for the region [8]. Jordan which
is facing an ever-increasing deficit in water supply, and if
no solutions to the water problem are found, the standard
of living in the country will drop or development will be
curtailed [9]. The link between future climate conditions
and economic growth, in the absence of other structural
changes, is a direct one [1]. The climate warming will
undermine the natural support system on which the
region depends on [10]. Jordan depends solely on rainfall for its renewable water resources. The mean annual
rainfall in Jordan is estimated in 2009 to be 111 mm [6].
Jordan recently has witnessed a dramatic drawback in
total annual rainfall [11]. The need to explore the impact
of climate change on Jordans rainfall pattern and its
impacts on water resources will be of a great help for calculating the water balance at country level [1214]. The
authors believe that the results of this study will be of a
great help to decision makers in the field of environment
in Jordan.
Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are good choice
and worth trying to analyze the relationship between
meteorological parameters and weather data (i.e., rainfall, temperature, and humidity). According to Haykin
[15], a neural network contains large amounts of parallel distributed processors made up of simple processing
units. By giving a set of measured data, neural networks
can show the stimulus response relationship within the
data set through the training [16].
Here a back propagation network [1719] consists
of at least three layers, multi layer perception: an input
layer, at least one intermediate hidden layer, and an output layer used to predict the weather forecast in Jordan.
The true power and advantages of neural networks
lies in the ability to represent both linear and nonlinear
relationships directly from the data being modeled. A
neural network model is a structure that can be adjusted
to produce a mapping from a given set of data to features
or relationships among the data. The model is adjusted,
or trained, using a collection of data from a given source
as input, typically referred to as the training set. After
successful training, the neural network will be capable
to perform classification, estimation, prediction, or simulation on new data from the same or similar sources
[16].
In this study, the meteorological parameters in Jordan
such as total annual rainfall, the mean annual minimum,
and maximum temperatures for the period of 19792009
were investigated. The data was obtained from Jordan
Meteorological Department and was analyzed for that
period in order to develop a mathematical model to
predict the weather parameters for the next ten years.
Weather prediction is one of the most difficult tasks
in operational meteorology. There are several weather
forecasting methods such as statistical methods and
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models [12,20].
Because of the nonlinear characteristics of weather
parameters such as rainfall process, statistical methods
cannot generate good results. Local climate situations
can also extremely affects the rainfall generation process.
And the NWP models cannot solve this local problem.
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Fig. 2. The used meteorolgical stations distribution in Jordan.
of artificial intelligent concept using the language of

technical computing MATLAB.
2.2. Back propagation methods
Fig. 1. Flowchart summarizing the methodology used in this study.
2. Methodology
2.1. Study area
A sequence of processing and interpolation steps was
performed in order to develop an ANN model and geographic maps to document the climate change impacts
on Jordan (Fig. 1). The process includes data collections for rainfall, minimum, and maximum mean annual
temperatures from thirteen meteorological stations during the period (19792009) (Fig. 2). ANN model was
used as it in MATLAB software with back propagation technique [19] to serve as training data in order
to predict the other weather parameters for the decade
20092018. This includes the mean annual minimum
and maximum temperature as well as rainfall for the
period of 20092018. This model is based on the use
The main algorithm used here in the prediction process is the supervised back propagation training method.
The supervised network was developed to train a set of
data for thirty years. Input vectors and the corresponding target vectors are used to train the network until it
can approximate a function and associate input vectors
with specific output. This method has been used with
considerable success for predicting several types of time
series. Neural networks of this kind are particularly suitable for prediction. The term back propagation refers to
the manner in which the gradient is computed for nonlinear multilayer networks. There are a number of variations
on the basic algorithm that are based on other standard
optimization techniques such as conjugate gradient and
Newton methods [21].
The data obtained after prediction from ANN, for the
period 20092018, in addition to raw data obtained from
meteorological departments for the period 19792008,
all were used as an input for GIS analysis using ARC GIS
10.3. These data were converted to geographical maps
covering the period from 1979 to 2018 for the following meteorological parameters: minimum and maximum
annual temperature and the total annual rainfall. Large
number of maps was obtained, in order to give a clear
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idea about the change in climatic parameters the mean

value for each weather parameter to each meteorological
station over ten years were taken and combined into a
single map for each meteorological parameter covering
the whole Jordan. Each obtained map will represent the
mean values for ten years period. Therefore the produced
maps will represent 10 year periods starting from 1979,
and so on up to 2018.
2.3. Methods for generating GIS and grid maps

Since we have a lot of data for each meteorological parameter every year from 1979 to 2009, therefore
individual years in between were not included in the
GIS maps. This is because it is difficult to analyze all
these results within the scope of this study. Thus, the ten
years techniques were developed, by utilizing GIS. In
which each produced map for one year namely (1979)
and specifically concern on only one meteorological
parameter is compared with other produced maps for
the same weather parameter after ten years which is
1988. This technique can easily be done by GIS. The
produce new map will be combined into one map to represent one decade (19791988). The same techniques
were repeated for the next three decades (19891998,
19992008, and 20092018) for the other meteorological parameters, as one map named for example as
temperature zone maps for each decade. Four maps were
produced covering a period of 40 years. This procedure
will give much better understanding to compare between
each decade (i.e., 19791988, 19891998, 19992008
and 20092018).
For the other type of grid maps processed for all four
decades maps were reproduced in the form of square grid
maps using GIS taking advantages of using point to point
interpolation which is the most frequently performed
type of spatial interpolation used in GIS. That means
each produced map was converted into grids with square
shape having a dimension of 52 km length per grid. Then
two successive periods of the produced geographic maps
were subtracted from each other [i.e., (19791988) subtracted from (19891999), and (19891998) subtracted
from (19992008), and (19992008) was subtracted
from (20092018)]. Adopting this procedure resulting
in a clear idea for the exact location where differences in
meteorological parameters have or had occurred. The
results after subtraction appeared as grid maps with
positive or negative signs distributed over the whole Jordan. For the same climate parameter, the positive sign
indicates an increase and the negative sign indicates a
decrease during that period.
3. Results and discussion

3.1. Annual mean minimum temperature results
Change in the mean annual minimum temperature
for the period between 1979 and 2018 is illustrated in
Fig. 3, showing both the actual and predicted temperature zones in Jordan. The different colors mean different
temperature zones around the meteorological station as
well as the whole country. The color will give the reader
a good indication if the zone has enlarged or shrinkages
during the period of 19792018. For example, the green
zone/color has changed significantly in its total area during the period of 19791998 in the eastern region of
Jordan. Shrinkage in total area in the same zone/color
will give an indication that the region has moved from
one temperature zone to another one, and this move
might be higher or lower temperature zones. In this
example, the shrinkage in green zone/color will indicate
that the desert region has moved to a hotter temperatures
zone especially in the late 1990s.
This figure shows the predicted results for the period
20092018. It is worthy to mention that there will be
another drop in the annual mean temperatures. At the
same time, in the northern region of Jordan, the temperature will not vary much and the annual mean level will
stay almost constant.
In order to get the exact temperature differences either
increase or decrease for each region, the country was
divided into small square-grid shape. Thus each value
appears in Fig. 3, as one decade interval was subtracted
from the following decade period, i.e., (19791989)
and (19891998) respectively. Fig. 4 illustrates the GIS
processed results in terms of grid showing the differences
in mean annual minimum temperature for the whole
country.
Fig. 4 also shows each grid with a certain value
obtained from the input data for temperature zones in
Fig. 3, as it is close to each meteorological station within
the same temperature zone. The difference between two
representative grid maps for one decade gives either positive or negative value. The positive sign indicates an
increase in temperature while the negative sign indicates a decrease in temperature compared with the annual
mean temperature in the previous decade.
Additional, Fig. 4 shows three graphs representing the
difference between two successive decades. It is easy to
notice that the differences between the fisrt two decade is
almost positive for the whole country, and it is ranging
from 0.02 to 0.54 . This means that the annual mean
minimum temperature in the period of 19891999 has
increaded compared to that for the period 19791989,
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Fig. 3. Annual mean minimum temperature changes during the period of 19792018.
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Fig. 4. Grid of minimum temeprature difference in Jordan for the period 19792018.
and it is higher in its mean annual values. Which means

that there is an increase in the mean annual minimum
temperatures within the time domain of the study period.
As shown in the figure, the northern, eastern, and southern regions have all a significant increase in their mean
annual minimum temperature. The central region has
shown the lowest increase in temperature amongst comparing with other regions. In contrast to first two decades,
the differences in the second group of two decades
(20092018 and 19992008) has a negative sign that
appeared almost over the whole country. This means the
region will witness a tangable decrease in its minimal
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temperature in the coming decade, predicting a colder

weather is expected in Jordan for the next decade with a
difference around 0.05 .
3.2. Annual mean maximum temperature results
The results concerning the mean annual maximum
temperature changes for the period between 1979 and
2018 is illustrated in Fig. 5. It is clearly indicating a
significant change during the period of 19891998 compared to that in the previous period of 19791988. This
difference can be easily noticed in the eastern region
of Jordan, almost similar pattern of changes is kept for
the third period of prediction (20092018). Fig. 5 also
shows that the mean annual maximum temperature is
high for all examined weather stations in the eastern
desert regions, with mean maximum annual temperature
of around 30.65 C during the first decade (19791988),
and then increased to 34.7 C during the second decade
(19891998). However, this increase does not maintain
the same trend in the coming decades and registered a
temperature decrease in third decade (19992008). It
is expecting to decrease until it reaches 31.4 C in the
fourth decade (20092018). Based on these records it
is predicted that the eastern desert region will witness a
drop in its annual mean maximum temperature over the
decades ahead.
On the other hand, the central regions of Jordan (i.e.,
Amman, Rabbah, and Queen Alia Airport) remain within
the mean maximum temperature range of 28 C during
the period (19791998). And it will keep fluctuating with
0.8 C until gradually reaches 29 C in the third decade
(19992008). This employs that the central region will
witness a slight increase in its mean annual maximum
temperatures up to 30 C in the third and fourth decades
(19992008) and (20092018). This will basically mean
we will have a hotter weather in this region than previous
decades (19791988, 19891998, and 19992008).
As indicated from the various colors, Fig. 5 shows
different temperature zones for the desert region in the
southern part of the country (i.e., Maan, and Aqaba).
As shown in Fig. 5 the temperatures around the studied weather stations ranging from 29 C to 36 C. At
Aqaba for example, during (20092018) it is expected
to have lower mean annual maximum temperature zone.
This indicates that Aqabas mean annual maximum temperature will be less than its annual temperature range
when compared to the previous decades (19791988,
19891998, and 19992008). In the northern region of
Jordan (i.e., Irbid and Deirallah), there is a gradual rise in
the mean annual maximum temperatures ranging from
23 C up to 30 C during the studied period (19792018)
decades. This suggests that the region will have a rise in

its mean annual maximum temperature values.
In order to compare the results for the whole decades
(19791988, 19891998, 19992008, and 20092018)
in terms of grid maps for differences of mean annual
maximum temperature distribution within the whole
country, processed by using the GIS techniques are
shown in Fig. 6. The produced map resulted by taking the temperature differences between two decades
(19791988) and (19891999) after dividing the whole
country into small squares locations and then displayed
as one map for two decades in the form of grid maps.
The temperature grids difference for each two decades
shows that:
1. All values of the annual maximum mean temperature
during the 19791988 and 19891998 are positive.
This suggests that temperatures of 19891998 were
higher than of that for 19791988. That will indicate
that there is an increase in the mean annual mean
maximum temperature in the whole country.
2. There is an expected drop in the annual mean maximum temperatures difference during 20092018
periods, which can be clearly seen in Fig. 6. It
shows that the difference between the 19992008
and 20092018 is negative. This indicates that these
negative areas are expected to face a lower annual
mean temperature in comparison with the previous
decade, and any location with a negative sign will
face substantial drop in temperature.
3. The mean annual maximum temperature in the southern regions of the country as it is indicated from Fig. 6
is falling down during 20092018, and it will be lower
than from the previous decades of 19982008. It is
interesting to note that the produced grid map has
a substantial difference reaching two 2 C, which
means a sudden drop in the mean annual maximum
temperature for the next decade is expected.
3.3. Total annual rainfall results
The mean total annual rainfall for both decades the
19791988 and 19891998 are illustrated in Fig. 7. This
figure showing that the total annual rainfall has its maximum values in the northern region of the country, where
the rainfall was varied between 350 mm and 560 mm.
That suggests the northern regions of Jordan had received
the highest amount of rainfall. Meanwhile, the central
region (i.e., Amman area) has kept on the mean between
270 and 350 mm. The desert region in the south and east
received a rainfall between 70 and 125 mm.
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Fig. 5. Annual mean maximum temperature changes for the period between 1979 and 2018.
Moreover, the results of total annual rainfall for the

two decades (19992008 and 20092018) are shown in
Fig. 8. For the decade 19992008, it indicates that the
amount of total rainfall in the northern region varies
between 320 mm and 550 mm. This would suggest that

there is neither an increase nor a decrease in its values and has maintained its rainfall rate. Meanwhile,
the central region (i.e., Amman area), the rainfall was
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Fig. 6. Maximum annual temeprature difference grid map for Jordan during a period between 1979 and 2018.
Fig. 7. The total anuual rainfall for the periods 19791988 and 19891998.
around 150 mm and 320 mm, which means a significant

decrease compared to previous decades 19791988 and
19891989. In desert regions, in both southern and eastern parts of the country, the rainfall was ranging between
30 and 110 mm, which indicate a slight decrease in the
total amount of rainfall in comparison with previous two
decades.
Based on the distribution pattern of Fig. 8, the predicted rainfall for the coming decade 20092018 in the
northern region will be in a range between 520 and
630 mm. This is a significant increase comparing the previous decades (19791988, 19891998 and 19992008).
As for the central region, (i.e., Amman and its areas),
the rainfall will vary between 150 mm and 300 mm
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Fig. 8. Total anuual rainfall for the periods 19992008 and 20092018.
indicating that there will be insignificant change. The

desert in east and south regions, the predicted rainfall will
range between 70 and 110 mm without any appreciable
change.
In order to make it clearer to the reader to notice
the rainfall difference between two successive decades;
the grid maps that was processed by GIS are shown
in Fig. 9. The difference between two values appears
in Fig. 7 will produce one grid value. The value indicates that the rainfall for the two decades (19891998
and 19791988) in the whole country are almost have a

positive value as rigid number. This means that the total
annual rainfall amounts in 19891998 are higher than of
that for 19791988. In some regions, the positive values
are higher than 20 mm especially in the desert regions.
As for the central region of the country, the differences
as a value between two decades are exceeding 45 mm.
This would suggest that these regions have higher rainfall
compared to the previous period 19781988. However,
the grid difference maps for 19891998 and 19992008
Fig. 9. Difference in annual total rainfall during the period 19792018.
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decades give negative value all over the whole country.

This means that the 19891999 decade total annual rainfall is higher than that of 19992008. This is basically an
indication for a significant reduction in total rainfall for
one decade; in some cases the difference reaches 80 mm.
This may shape the next period of rainfall for the region
with a significant drop in rainfall. This is really not a
small quantity for a country like Jordan suffers from low
rainfall rates.
The predicted results for the decade 20092018, are
shown in Fig. 9, there will be a decline in total annual
rainfall all over the whole country. The prediction indicates a decrease in total rainfall that will reach 50 mm
in the northern region of Jordan. However, in southern
desert region there will be an increase of about 30 mm.
This means an increase in the total amount of rainfall in
south, and a decrease in the northern parts of Jordan.
4. Conclusions
According to the result of the mean minimum annual
temperatures, it is expected that the desert region will
have a lower minimum temperature in general, as well as
the central region of Jordan. However the northern region
will keep its mean temperature with very low changes.
The mean annual maximum temperature results show an
increase in the whole country.
The results show that, for the northern regions, the
predicted rainfall (20092018) will range between 520
and 630 mm, which is higher than previous decades
(19791988 and 19891998). The central region will
have rainfall amounts between 150 mm and 300 mm
which are almost the same quantities compared to previous decades 19791988 and 19891998.
For the deserts regions, the predicted rainfall for the
coming years until 2018 will range from 70 to 110 mm.
When comparing it with the amount that had felled in
2009 we can conclude that the rainfall is in a decreasing
trend. In some areas, the predicted data showed both
decrease and increase at the same time depending on the
location. For example, in the north region there will be
an increase in total rainfall up to 30 mm, while in the
southern region a decrease in total rainfall up to 50 mm
is predicted.
Acknowledgements
The authors are deeply thankful to Scientific Research
Support Fund (SRSF), Ministry of Higher Education and
Scientific Research, Jordan, for their financial support to
accomplish this project under the no. (H/6/02/2008). The
authors are also thankful to Mr. Awni Shaker, for his help
11
in producing the GIS maps. Our thanks also go to Royal

Jordanian Geographic Center (RJGC) for supporting us
with digital maps used in GIS software.
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Artificial neural network technique for rainfall forecasting applied
to Alexandria, Egypt, International Journal of the Physical Sciences 6 (6) (2011) 13061316.

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Al-Balqa' Applied University

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Al-Ahliyya Amman University

Isfahan University of Technology

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All in-text references underlined in blue are linked to publications on ResearchGate,

Available from: Mohammed Matouq

Journal of Taibah University for Science xxx (2013) xxxxxx

The climate change implication on Jordan: A case study using GIS

Corresponding author. Tel.: +966 507189954.

1658-3655 2013 Taibah University. Production and hosting by

Fig. 2. The used meteorolgical stations distribution in Jordan.

of artificial intelligent concept using the language of

Fig. 1. Flowchart summarizing the methodology used in this study.

idea about the change in climatic parameters the mean

2.3. Methods for generating GIS and grid maps

3. Results and discussion

and it is higher in its mean annual values. Which means

temperature in the coming decade, predicting a colder

decades. This suggests that the region will have a rise in

Moreover, the results of total annual rainfall for the

between 320 mm and 550 mm. This would suggest that

around 150 mm and 320 mm, which means a significant

indicating that there will be insignificant change. The

and 19791988) in the whole country are almost have a

Fig. 9. Difference in annual total rainfall during the period 19792018.

decades give negative value all over the whole country.

in producing the GIS maps. Our thanks also go to Royal

[19] G.R. Geetha, S. Selvaraj, Prediction of monthly rainfall in

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