Haas
Case Analysis by Nithin Geereddy
Investment Banking Harvard University Fall 2013
1) Introduction
The case presents an American company Dow, producer of commodity
chemicals, who is in the final stages of acquiring another company Rohm and
Haas.
Dows CEO has been working for four years to transform Dow from a
producer of low-value, highly cyclical commodity chemicals to a producer of highvalue, specialty chemicals and advanced materials. Rohm is a perfect match for
Dow in respect of the strategic and financial perspective. Dow is also pursuing
another key deal with Kuwaits Petrochemical Industries Company (PIC) that was
supposed to generate $7 billion cash net of tax which could be used to finance
acquisition of specialty chemical maker Rohm & Haas for $18.8 billion all cash deal.
However, by late 2008, a sever financial crisis gripped the US markets, causing a
substantial decline in asset values. This financial crisis stretched across the entire
globe, and the Kuwait based PIC terminated the joint venture with Dow in
December 2008. To make matters worse, Dow reported a fourth quarter loss of
$1.6 billion. Due to deteriorating market conditions and the credit market freezing
up, Dow attempted to back out of its acquisition of Rohm & Haas. In response,
Rohm & Haas approached the court to force Dow to complete the the terms of their
deal.
presence in the global market will provide Dow with an expanded network into
emerging markets, producing important sources of revenues, while the synergies
would create an outstanding business portfolio with diversified products and
significant growth opportunities. Rohm & Haas is also backed by a strong and
experienced leadership team with a culture of customer focus and innovation. In
light of Dow trying to transform their production line beyond the low-value, highly
cyclical commodity chemicals, Rohm & Haass portfolio of specialty chemicals and
advanced materials made it a tempting acquisition.
Using short-
term tax rates (26%) and debt level (D/V=49%), the WACC would be 7.44% as
shown below.
4.92%
1.06
5.07%
10.29%
26%
6.10%
49%
51%
Exhibit 7b
Exhibit 7b
Exhibit 7b
Exhibit
Exhibit
Exhibit
Exhibit
7b
7a
7b
2
Exhibit 2
7.44%
Using the given WACC of 8.5 and a growth rate of 2% we calculated an Enterprise
value of $12,370.
The value of equity is the Enterprise Value (EV) less the value of the Net Debt. Net
Debt is defined as follows:
We found that the equity value of Rohm & Haas to be $9,059 and dividing this
value by the Rohm and Haas shares outstanding yields a value of $46.41 per
Rohm and Haas share. This value is just slightly higher than what Rohm and
Haas was trading at the day before the deal was announced.
Perform a sensitivity analysis of the equity value per share based on the
inputs to the TV (discount rate and growth rate).
We explore the Equity Values sensitivity to the discount rate as well as to the
projected growth rate.
Syn/Share
Sensitivity Analysis
$
$
$
2,000
2,300
2,600
$
$
$
5.90
6.75
7.67
Perform a sensitivity analysis of the equity value per share based on the
variations in the annual cost savings ($500, $800 (pg. 3), $1,000)
Using the equity value per share that we calculated for earlier of $46.41, we added
the growth (used the low end of the $2.0b - $2.6B range) and cost synergies to this
value to come up with a baseline value of $85.27. Adjusting the cost synergies we
calculated an equity value per share of $71.37 to $94.26 per Rohm and Haas
share.
Original
Forecast
$
46.41
500 Cost
Synergies
$
71.37
800 Cost
Synergies
$
85.27
1000 Cost
Synergies
$
94.26
Perform a sensitivity analysis of the equity value per share based on the
inputs to the TV (discount rate and growth rate).
We explore the Equity Values sensitivity to the discount rate as well as to the
projected growth rate.
Based on the Revised Forecast, value Rohm and Haas based using the
growth and cost synergies from question 2.
Based on the Revised Forcast and using $2B growth synergies and $800M per year
with a one time cost of $1.3B we calculate the value of Rohm and Haas to be
$67.39.
500 Cost
Synergies
$
53.49
$
28.53
800 Cost
Synergies
$
67.39
1000 Cost
Synergies
$
76.38
Value Rohm and Haas based using only 50% of the growth and cost
synergies.
With 50% growth and cost synergies we value Rohm and Haas at $46.05.
Revised Forecast Price Per
Share
$
28.53
Synergies p/share
$
17.52
With Synergies
$
46.05
Considering the onset of the global economic crisis, value Rohm and Haas
based using 0% of the growth synergies and 50% cost synergies.
With 0% growth and 50% Cost Synergies we value Rohm and Haas at $41.90.
Revised Forecast Price Per
Share
$
28.53
Synergies p/share
$
13.38
With Synergies
$
41.90
Table 11: Revised price with 0% growth and 50% cost synergies
Risk-free rate (Rf): We believe that 3.5% represents a reasonable value for
a very large portion of their deal with a bridge loan. This lead us to a WACC of
11.76% and we lowered our growth rate to 1.5%.
Results:
The lower WACC increased synergy values of the deal thus boosting the overall
price per share value of Rohm and Haas, with a range of $80.96 to $113.38 per
share.
Orig.
Forecast
$
80.96
$
100.47
$
113.38
$46.4
1
However, with the higher WACC used in the revised synergies, the overall price per
share dropped to $44.93 to $59.53 per share.
Revised
Forecast
$28.5
3
500 Cost
Synergies
$
44.93
$
53.77
$
59.53
Ticking Fee
2.1a: In the event the merger does not close by
January 10, 2009, the per share consideration shall
increase using 8% simple interest per annum until the
deal closes.
The risk of delay is mitigated by stating explicitly the closing date in the
agreement and specifying a ticking fee for any delay beyond the date specified.
Non-performance is addressed by Specific Performance, with any potential
breaches of agreement to be prevented with injunctions granted by the Delaware
court.
These provisions primarily favor Rohm but allow for damages to be granted to both
parties (termination fee and reverse termination fee) in the case of nonperformance.
Responsibility is primarily allocated to Dow, but both parties are subject to financial
penalties should the deal not occur.
2. Risk of governing body unfamiliarity:
Governing
Law
This risk of governing body unfamiliarity addresses the risk of the case being
discussed in a jurisdiction alien to one or both entities. Explicit statement of the
applicable fiscal and legal policies affecting the deal allows both parties to predict
and mitigate any potential material expenses or changes.
This provision is set to protect and allocate responsibility equally to both parties.
Certain macroeconomic or capital market forces, which are not under the control of
Rohm, may negatively affect Rohms performance and cause Dow to terminate the
deal. However, these factors are applicable to the general industry and may not
be considered as grounds for termination of the agreement.
This provision favors Rohm and holds Dow responsible to act in accordance with
the terms of the agreement.
4. Risk that the transaction may lack proper valuation and substance:
Fairness
Opinion
Hell or High 5.6b & e: Dow shall take all such action as may be
Water
necessary to resolve objections, if any, from
Provision
government authorities on antitrust grounds so as to
enable the closing to occur as soon as reasonably
possible including the sale, divestiture, or
disposition of assets, businesses, products, or product
lines Nothing contained in this agreement requires
Dow to take any divestiture action with respect to any
of the assets if these assets represented in excess of
$1.3 billion of revenue for the 12 months ending
December 31, 2007.
This risk is mitigated by the specific provisions requiring best efforts in the attempt
to complete the terms of the agreement.
5.6 favors both parties as well as holds both responsible for taking all necessary
actions in order to complete this deal under the specified terms and by the
contractually specified closing date. 5.6b & e favors Rohm and holds Dow
responsible with respect to any intentional delays in finalizing the acquisition.
7. Additional risks addressed in the conditions for closure:
Closing
Conditions
6) As of early 2009:
What should Andrew Liveris (Dows CEO) ?
In the given scenario, the current economic situation has created a vacuum of
liquidity in the financial markets. Simultaneously, the termination of the PIC deal
also put Dow dow in a position of not having adicuate funding for this deal. There
are three options presented within this case:
1) Deal is completed at $78 per share either through voluntary acceptance
from Dow or Dow is forced to do so through litigation.
2) Terminate the deal through litigation, or
3) Renegotiate specific terms.
To close deal at $78, Dow needs to raise cash, but it has few options. Permanent
financing is also difficult to obtain in the given scenario of limited liquidity in
capital markets. Cutting dividend would end firms 97-year streak, which the CEO
stated he would not do. And any asset sales would be at forced sale prices. Issuing
equity through a secondary offering would significantly dilute DOWs stock due to
its recent selloff due to the announcement of this deal and overall market
conditions. Dows stock had fallen to $11 per share, and Dows market
capitalization had fallen below Rohms market capitalization ($10.7 billion vs. $10.8
billion). Though Dow may even go for generating some cash via dividend cut, asset
sale and use of existing bridge loan (with one year repayment term), this would
lead to a further downgrade of Dows credit rating, as warned by Moodys, because
there is a strong risk whether Dow could comply with the bridge loans covenants
on cash flows and total leverage ratio.
As per the second option, terminating the deal through litigation would be a very
difficult to a Judge to rule in its favor. The Material Advers Clause clearly states that
changes in the overall marketplace are not covered by this clause: events or
changes generally affecting the specialty chemical industry or generally affecting
the economy or the financial, debt, credit or securities markets. Also, Dow is
required to the Reasonable Best Efforts Clause, an it must do everything that it can
do in its power to complete the deal. Since it is unwilling to suspend its dividend
and/or issue a secondary offering to raise cash, the case could be made that Dow
is not making a Reasonable Best Effort.
Both Rohm and Dow have a final option to delay and renegotiate with each other.
Dow may negotiate with K-Dow (the Kuwaiti entities who terminated their
agreement, as discussed in the introduction) and other lenders. Dow is planning to
sue K-Dow to recover the break up fee from their failed deal. This breakup fee
could be used to fund the deal, or Dow could use this breakup fee as leverage to
renegotiate the deal with K-Dow and hopefully raise more cash. Delaying the deal,
would also allow Dow to renegotiate its bridge loan. Dow may try to extend
maturity of bridge loan, but the cost would likely rise and the banks would have to
be willing to extend the loan. Finally, Dow may also look for other longer-term
financing options or the credit markets may open up with more time.
Therefore, the third option should be considered by Andrew Liveris, as this option
would be prefferable and recommended from the perspective of Dow Chemicals.
This short-
term loan was one of the keys to getting the deal done and Dow was able to
negotiate extended terms though the interest rate on the loan more than doubles
in its second year. 2 Also, two major Rohm & Haas shareholders agreed to invest
$3 billion in the combined company. 3 That year, Dow announced that it slashed
its dividends by 64% to 15 cents a share and planned to lay off 3,500 workers,
on top of 5,000 already announced by the company. 4 This was the first time the
company had cut its dividends. To pay down some this debt Dow agreed to sell
Rohms profitable unit Morton Salt to K&S AG for $1.576 billion, which was
completed on October 1, 20095. Rohm had purchased Morton Salt in 1999 for $4.6
billion6. Immediately S&P downgraded Dows credit rating to BBB-, to one step
above junk, due to the increase of debt that had to be issued to complete the
merger.
Dow was required to sell certain acrylic monomer and specialty latex assets, and
these transactions were completed on January 25, 2010 8. On May 6th, 2009, Dow
announced that it would issue a public offering of $2.25 billion in common stock of
130 million shares priced at $15 per share. 9 Dow also annouced that it would
1 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB123860746676278981
2 Ibid.
3 Ibid.
4 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB123663915248676941
5 Dow Chemical 2010 10-K
6 Dows Bid for Rohm and Haas
7 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB123860746676278981
8 Dow Chemical 2011 10-K
9
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/dow-prices-oversubscribed-public-
common-stock-offering-retires-significant-portion-of-perpetual-preferred-shares61782112.html
retire preffered shares used for its recent buyout of Rohm & Haas, a move that will
save it millions in dividend payments and offered $6 billion in debt securities for
which Fitch gave a BBB rating.10
Originally, Dow believed that the post-merger company would be able to generate
$2.0 to $2.6 billion in additional value and achieve at least $800 million of cost
synergies. 11 However, when Dow announced the deal on April 1, 2009, it believed
that the merged companies would be able to achieve $3.0 billion in additional
value growth opportunities, as well as annual cost synergies of $1.3 billion. 12 The
integration of Rohm appears to be very successful and was completed in Quarter 1
of 2011.
acquisition a full quarter ahead of schedule, with realized savings of $1.4 billion
including increased purchasing power for raw materials; manufacturing and supply
chain work process improvements; and the elimination of redundant corporate
overhead for shared services and governance13.
Dow has been able to pay off the short-term loan that it required to complete the
merger. In 2009 Dow had short-term debt of $2.12 billion and as of the end of 2012
it had paid this down to $396 million 14. Dows long-term debt has remained around
$19 billion since. Dow has been successful in increasing its Gross Margin from
12.76% in 2009 to 15.84% in 2012. Dows EBIT and EBITDA margins were
improving until 2012 when the company had a pre-tax restructuring charge of
$1.343 billion.
DOW
Net Sales
2012
5678
2011
5998
2010
5367
2009
4487
10
http://seattletimes.com/html/businesstechnology/2009195920_apusdowchemicalo
ffering.html
11 Dows Bid for Rohm and Haas
12 http://www.dow.com/greaterchina/en/news/2009/20090401a.htm
13 Dow Chemical 2011 10-K
14 Dow Chemical 2009 and 2012 10-K
6
4779
2
COGS
Gross
Profit
8994
Gross
15.84
Margin
%
EBIT
2934
EBIT
5.17
Margin
%
EBITDA
5632
EBITDA
9.92
Margin
%
All figures are from
in millions
5
5102
9
4
4578
0
5
3914
8
Dow announced on December 2, 2013 that it is in the process of carving out some
of its low margin businesses to hopefully sell in the future. This is a part of Dows
plan to divest low margin businesses over the next 18 to 24 months producing $3 $4 billion in proceeds. 15 None of the assets that are being carved out were a part
of the Rohm and Haas merger.
Finally, Dow has seen its stock price rebound since the merger. Dow hit a closing
low of $6.33 in March of 2009, and as of November 29, 2013 its stock price closed
at $39.06, which is an increase of 517%.
15 http://www.dow.com/news/press-releases/article/?id=6380