A Simple Model to

Explain Today
and Predict Tomorrow

The 2100 Pendulum

A Simple Model to Explain Today
and Predict Tomorrow
Created by

Michael Haupt

V0.97 Draft
March 2016
Check for latest version here.

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Table of Contents
Why The 2100 Pendulum Model? ............................................................................................... 5
The Past ........................................................................................................................................... 6
Early Middle Ages ...................................................................................................................... 7
High Middle Ages ...................................................................................................................... 7
Renaissance Period .................................................................................................................... 7
Industrial Revolution Period .................................................................................................... 7
Transition Years .............................................................................................................................. 7
Dominant Cultural Memes at Each Peak ................................................................................... 8
Left Culture Memes ................................................................................................................... 8
Right Culture Memes................................................................................................................. 8
How the Model Could be Useful ................................................................................................. 9
The Future ....................................................................................................................................... 9
Good or Bad, Right or Wrong? ..................................................................................................10
References ......................................................................................................................................11

How is it that the more able man becomes to manipulate the world to
his advantage, the less he can perceive any meaning in it? Owen
Barfield, British philosopher, author, poet, and critic. Quoted in The
Divided Brain and the Search for Meaning by Iain
McGilchrist.
Why The 2100 Pendulum Model?
I created The 2100 Pendulum Model for two important reasons:
1. To provide hope. So many have lost faith in a patriarchal system intent on
domination and plundering everything our planet has to offer. Many see this
system taking its last gasps but are worried about what's next. My research (and
the model) shows that there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
2. To spark exponential creativity. Many of the visionary clients I have worked
with over the years needed "permission" to believe that their preposterous
dreams even had a hope of being fulfilled. They needed a way to see that the
indoctrination we've received since the Industrial Revolution was keeping them
stuck in a mindset that didn't serve them. The model shows that the exponential
progress in technology and science -- combined with a simultaneous rapid
increase in empathy, collaboration and other traditionally feminine values -- is
providing the perfect environment to bring previously crazy ideas to fruition. We
need more of these ideas, and quickly. The model explains why it's imperative
that we need "illogical" solutions from women if we are to save our planet.

Figure 1 - The Jodrell Bank Discovery Centre Orrery - a mechanical model of the solar system.

Models are useful to help us understand our complex world. Just as a mechanical model
of the Solar System helps us understand the movement of planets without the need to
travel through space, philosophical models are representations of ideas that help explain
phenomena that cannot be experienced directly.
The 2100 Pendulum is a model that helps us understand the past 1,000 years of Western
civilization so that we can predict the next 100.
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All models are wrong, but some are useful.George Box

Theres absolutely no way to know whether this particular model will stand the test of
future84 years is a long time to wait to find out. Im no historian and I dont have any
special access to secrets of the future. Even if I did, I wouldnt know what to do with
them. Trend analysts will no doubt point out that the model covers insufficient cycles to
conclusively prove the trend.
That said, the 2100 Pendulum Model has proved useful to some and Im sharing it to see
where the resulting conversation might go. Like any cognitive tool, this model helps you
cut through the noise of reality and hone in on key principles.

The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by

the ease with which the past is explained. Daniel Kahneman
The Past
A giant imaginary pendulum has been swinging from left to right and back again
throughout Western civilizationmirroring the predominant cultural focus of the time:
left a focus on science; right a focus on art. Each cycle has lasted roughly 300 years, with
the following peaks:
900AD: rightEarly Middle Ages
1200AD: leftHigh Middle Ages
1500AD: rightRenaissance
1800AD: leftIndustrial Revolution.

Figure 2 - The pendulum swing through 1000 years of Western civilization

If the pattern continues, it is due to reach the next right peak in 2100, hence the name:
the 2100 Pendulum Model.

Early Middle Ages

This period lasted from 400AD to 1000AD, peaking at 900AD. Agriculture was the
predominant activity for settled inhabitants and people lived close to the land and nature.
Plots were an acre in size, measuring one furlong of 220 yards by one chain of 22
yards (about 200m by 20m). A furlong (from furrow long) was chosen to respect the
plough oxenthis was the distance an ox could comfortably plough before requiring a
rest. This was a period dominated by connection with nature and right-brained thinking.
For more, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Middle_Ages.

High Middle Ages

This period lasted from 1000 to 1300, peaking at 1200. It was predominantly a scientific
and educational reform period when the first universities were established. The Catholic
Church reached the peak of its political power at this time and led a series of Crusades. A
period dominated by masculine energy and left-brained thinking. For more, see
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Middle_Ages

Renaissance Period
This period lasted from 1300 to 1700, peaking at 1500. Predominantly an artistic and
creative period, typically associated with right-brained people who tend to be creative,
curious and intuitive. These traits are often referred to as feminine energy. For more, see
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance

Industrial Revolution Period

This period lasted from 1760 to 1840, peaking at 1800. Predominantly a scientific and
mechanistic period typically associated with left-brained people who tend to be logical,
strategic and rational. These traits are often referred to as masculine energy. For more,
see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution

Transition Years
While each full cycle lasts 300 years, the transition from one half to the next typically
takes between 50 and 100 years and is represented by the lowest point of the pendulums
swing. In our case, the transition started in the 1960s during the hippie movement and is
likely to continue until 2030, making our transition a period of 70 years.
The total transition time typically consists of 2 phases and a defining low point:
Growing awareness of the need for changeusually 75% of the total
transition period. Faultfinding is the most visible activity during this phase, in
which established systems and cultures are blamed for existing problems. Our
awareness period lasted from 1962 to 2012.
The lowest point is often represented by a defining moment, which, in
hindsight, confirms the turning point. The lowest point is also the point at
which the pendulum swings fastest, which could explain why time appears to

fly by so quickly at present. The good news is that time slows as the
pendulum reaches its peak and slows its swing, in preparation of the next
cycle. Our defining moment was the end of the Mayan calendar on 21
December 2012.
The groundwork phaseusually 25% of the total transition periodis a
time during which essential preparatory work is done in readiness of
replacing systems and cultures identified as causes of issues during the
awareness phase. We are currently in the groundwork phase, which should
last until around 2030 (another 14 years at the time of this writing).

If the models pattern can be safely extrapolated, we are headed

towards a culture reminiscent of the Renaissance period, with the
added benefit of significant technological progress.

The current crisis, therefore, is not just a crisis of individuals,

governments, or social institutions; it is a transition of planetary
dimensions. As individuals, as a society, as a civilization, and as a
planetary ecosystem, we are reaching the turning point.Fritjof Capra
in The Turning Point, 1982
Dominant Cultural Memes at Each Peak
Left Culture Memes

(Where weve come from)

Scientific, measurable, provable

Rational, logical, Cartesian, analytic
Mechanistic, factories, mass production lines, automation
Focus on productivity and improving efficiency
Focus on individual and independence
Competitive, scarcity
Hierarchical, command and control
Bottom line oriented

Right Culture Memes

(Where were going)

Artistic, cultural
Emotional, spiritual, ecological
Artisanal, hand-made, unique products
Focus on creativity and new ideas
Focus on collective and inter-dependence
Collaborative, emergent, abundant
Circles or swirls
Stakeholder oriented
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Naturally there is much more to unpackthese basic memes are provided simply to
stimulate your own thinking.

How the Model Could be Useful

Predicting technology trends

Identifying successful startup business ideas
Making it easy for investors to identify future unicorns
Hiring the right skills and aptitudes for long term
Predicting what will happen with current structures like government, education,
healthcare and religion
As a sanity check and confirmation that we are not about to destroy ourselves or
the planet (although its touch-and-go)

To paraphrase Einstein:

Problems created with left-brained thinking cannot be solved without

right-brained thinking.
The Future
What will life in the 22nd Century be like?
Using the 2100 Pendulum Model as a framework, well be answering this question in great
detail by covering the following themes. Well make specific predictions about what each
theme will look like in the 22nd Century, and heres a taster.
Discoveries in Science & Physics during a left period are made based on
experimentation requiring solid proofthey rely on measurement of the known world.
Discoveries during a right period are made when the glorious unknown is accepted as fact,
rather than scrutinized and criticized. It is likely that currently accepted physical
limitations will be completely bypassed by 2100. Early examples are:
driverless transport (in the first phase the driver becomes obsolete; in the
second phase the vehicle becomes obsoletephysical objects, including
humans, will be able to relocate anywhere at any time through teleportation)
dematerialization (in the first phase products are replaced by services; in the
second phase all products will be created from bits and atoms, on-demand,
without the need for natural resources)
Consumer Technology during a left period relegates the user to the status of
producttechnology more often than not serves the corporation rather than the user.
During a right period, technology will become far more empathic and personal, serving
the user rather than a corporation. Early developments in artificial intelligence and cloud
computing indicate a move toward a benevolent global consciousness, able to be
accessed by anyone at any time and at no cost.
Engineering & Architecture during a left period serve form before function and
focuses on celebrating the skill of man and the conquest of physical limitations (bigger is
always better). In a right period, engineering and architecture is replaced by
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biomimeticsthe imitation of the models, systems, and elements of nature for the
purpose of solving complex human problems.
Left period con(ned)sumers will be replaced by informed users in a right period, fully
aware of the implications and consequences of their use and consumption of every item.
Business & Advertising will primarily serve, rather than sell.
Education in a left period is concerned with increasing head knowledge. In a right
period, all knowledge is immediately accessible by tapping into global consciousness.
Education in a right period is concerned about increasing heart feeling: intuition,
wisdom, empathy (mostly referred to as soft skills during a left period).
Decisions about Personal Health during a left period are abdicated to a trained
professional. In a right period, the individual has full access to their own health
information and can compare it to that of every other inhabitant on our planet.
Decisions are often proactively made by a monitoring system, without the individual
having to consult either a professional or technology.
The dominant belief about Wealth & Income during a left period is scarcity, whereas in a
right period it is abundance. During a left period, workers slave away on behalf of a select
few; during a right period, work is replaced with creative pursuits and minimum needs
are met for everyone.
We will discuss many more themes in due course. If the model so far resonates with you
and youd like to test our predictions, why not follow the Twenty One Hundred
publication on Medium: Twenty One Hundred

Good or Bad, Right or Wrong?

Its important to point out that there is no good or badone system is no better than
the other. The Nei Ching states that The entire universe is an oscillation of the forces
Yin and Yang. We will never achieve balance between left and rightits the creative
tension between both that produces progress.
As the authors of The Good Economy assert, the Industrial Revolution produced the
factory system, a multi-decade process of adaptation to the efficiencies of manufacturing,
distribution, logistics, and everything that came with it. It required the notion of the
job, a new educational system (the high school movement), new policy structures (the
welfare state), and new political responses. In one sense, decades of public and private
investment can be seen as building out the full platform of the factory system. This
business system endured for a century. It involved disruption and change, which was the
object of much criticism and brow furrowing, just as is todays disruption and change.
But it yielded vast improvements in standards of living, in health, and in life expectancy.
It was a marvel, but we tend now to think that this must be the system rather than a
system.
This is all happening again. This time the new thing, the new technological change
driving us, is information technology. These technologies began to be important in the
1960s. They evolved quickly through the 1970s and 1980s. The more recent convergence
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of enormous increases in computing power, the Internet and then the Internet of Things
and cloud computing represent changes every bit as substantial as and even more
pervasive than the Industrial Revolution.
The rapid progress in information technology converging with an equally rapid rise in
feminine energy and the resulting shift from competition to collaboration are leading to
the birth of an entirely new system. This new system will force change as broadly as did
the emergence of the factory system. It is leading to social changes as substantial and
pervasive as that system, but this time with more positive impact on individuals,
humanity as a collective and our planet.
And that is surely a good thing for us all.

References

The Master and His Emissary: The Divided Brain and the Making of the Western
World by Iain McGilchrist
The Two Cultures by C. P. Snow
The Emergence of a Scientific Culture: Science and the Shaping of Modernity
12101685 by Stephen Gaukroger

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