JCAP Scientist:
Joel Ager
C2M Team:
Ismael Ghozael
Luc-Emmanuel Barreau
Timothy Kelly
Wesley Chen
2016
Discovery of
efficient and
cheap
materials
2021
Assembly of
pieces into
scalable
system
2026
Increased
efficiency;
variety of fuel
types
H2O
High Voltage
PV absorber
O2
CO2
Liquid Fuel
Production
Electrolysis
H2
Liquid fuels
(Methanol)
Integrated steps
Cost target
Purity
Value proposition
4
Project approach
5
Products considered
Rationale
Hydrogen is produced by
JCAPs prototype
O2
Methanol
Hydrogen Markets
6
Total H2 US Market
2010:
$22bn
9bn Metric tons
Consumption
Range
Very small
200-220 kg/day
Small
1000 kg/day
Medium
6.0 metric tons/day
97% of consumption
Large
20 metric tons/day
Industry
10.7
US production:
Centralized
Distributed
Electrolysis: 4%
Mostly distributed
$/kg of Hydrogen
Average US - grid
Wind
Solar PV
Hawaii- grid
Quantity
Type
Cylinders
Tube trailer
Cryogenic truck
Pipeline
% Market
3% small
merchant
7% small
merchant
90% small
merchant
Large merchant
Cost
n.a.
2.6 $/kg
1.7 $/kg
0.98 $/kg
Sensitivity
n.a.
40c/100km
8c/100km
15c/100km
1200 mi,
95% in Texas and
Louisiana
Infrastructure
Source: Hydrogen and fuel cells: The US market report (picture), hydrogen.pnl.gov, DOE hydrogen project
$/kg
Source: "Hydrogen supply: cost estimates, NREL, Hydrogen and fuel cells: the US market report
Market
Hurdles ?
Premium O2 - Medical
gas
- Purity
- Regulatory: only electrolysis currently
approved
- Use of H2 unclear: hospitals unwilling to
operate small fuel cells
O2+H2 Petroleum
refining
Decision
Why Methanol?
- Short technology path
- Low manufacturing switching cost.
- Regulatory environment is favorable
- Credible fuel alternative
Source 1 : energy.gov
Source 2: ethanolrfa.org/pages/statistics#B
Methanol markets
14
Market size:
US imports : $1.6bn
World market : $20bn
Annual Growth:
1996-2009 CAGR 4.2%
2010-2015 CAGR 7.3%
Drivers:
Fuel category
Chinese policy
25% of cost
15% of cost
Source : http://www.methanex.com/investor/documents/InvestorPresentation-April2011_000.pdf
Imports:
64%
NE +
19%
1225T
MW +
34%
24
T
$0.42/KG
Truck/railroad movement
Source 1 JJ&A Global Methanol Report Source 2- picture : Dewitt Study
SE +
14%
Barge movement
Transport
Distribution
42%
Pump
Price
$0.67/kg
Production
58%
Other
53%
Carbon
capture
H2
generation
Transport (*)
47%
Separation
15%
Synthesis
25%
Syngas
60%
Cost breakdown
Methanol retail price
Distributed
Generation
Distributed
H2
+ captured
CO2
$0.37/Kg
(55% of cost)
CO2
$0.10/Kg
H2
$0.27
Or
$2.16/Kg
Artificial Photosynthesis
Alternative
Source 1: Price MarkUp Methanol institute (Methanol flexible Fuel vehicle)
Source 2: Pump price Methanol Market /retailer price
Source 3: Carbone capture - http://sequestration.mit.edu/pdf/David_and_Herzog.pdf*
(*) Truck transport to MidWest location
Today the demand for methanol is happy with its supply, DOW Chemicals
The methanol industry is extremely efficient. To compete, the cost target for
H2 with artificial photosynthesis has to decrease to 2 $/Kg.
Carbon Tax
Technology
Development
21
Appendices
Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table5_6_a.html
Mainstream process:
$0.025
Fixed Cost
(industry norm)
$0.102
$0.105
financing cost
Variable cost of
Assumptions:
production
-25 year useful life plant
- Gas cost low US$1 MMBTU
- Finance 70:30 debt/equity
at 8% on 10 years
Storage costs are negotiable and vary depending on the product, tank size,
special equipment required, mode of in and out bound shipments, contract terms,
etc. In a broad sense, a public terminal company would charge a base rate per
ton, per month for methanol stored in a 12,600 metric ton (100,000 barrel) tank
on a years contract. This base charge would include four tank capacity
throughputs (50,400 mt/400,000 bbls) per year, and some extra incidental costs
such as loading tank trucks and cars. Depending on customer/contract status,
these terms are negotiable, particularly if more frequent throughputs are
required. Four tank capacity throughputs per years (about a turn per quarter) are
fairly standard. Storage costs per ton can be reduced significantly by increasing
the number of throughputs per year.
Source 1 : Dewitth & Co