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Chapter 2

17

Chapter 2

I

Chapter Outline

The following concepts are introduced:

Random experiment

Outcome of an experiment

Mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive outcomes

Probability of an outcome

Event

2.2 The Laws of Probability

Review of basic probability rules including addition rules, conditional probability,

and product laws, and an introduction of the concept of independence.

2.3 Working with Probabilities and Probability Tables

Review of decision tree analysis in the context of conditional probabilities.

2.4 Random Variables

2.5 Discrete Probability Distributions

2.6 The Binomial Distribution

Definition of a binomial random variable and its parameters. Introduction of the

combinatorial formula for the computation of a binomial probability.

2.7 Summary Measures of Probability Distributions

Definition of mean or expected value, variance, and standard deviation.

Derivation of mean and standard deviation of a binomial random variable.

2.8 Linear Functions of a Random Variable

Evaluation of mean, variance, and standard deviation of a random variable

expressed as a linear function of another random variable (Y = aX + b).

2.9 Covariance and Correlation

Manual to accompany Data, Models & Decisions: The Fundamentals of Management Science by Bertsimas and Freund. Copyright

2000, South-Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.

Instructors Manual

Chapter 2

18

2.10

Definition of the joint probability distribution of two random variables. Review of

independence of random variables under this context. Formula for the expectation

of the product of two independent random variables. Independence and the

relation to covariance and correlation.

2.11

Expectation, variance, and standard deviation of the linear combination of two

random variables.

2.12

Discussion of Bayes' theorem, law of total probability, and alternate formula for

the variance.

2.13

Summary

II

Teaching Tips

1.

the classical approach to computing probabilities and the relative frequency

(empirical) approach. Many students have little intuition concerning the

difference between both of them. This can be done by engaging the students in a

quick classroom survey of a given characteristic of the students, and then

contrasting the probabilities from the survey to the classical probabilities from a

binomial variable associated to this characteristic.

2.

long-run sense, that is, if the experiment is repeated many times, the average of

the observations approaches the expectation. Same remarks apply to the variance.

3.

To help understand the meaning of the variance, the instructor may want to

introduce the coefficient of variation (/) as a relative measure of the variability

within a population and its possible use to compare populations of very different

nature.

III

2.1

(a) P(X>=5) = P(1,4) + P(2,3) + P(2,4) + P(3,2) + P(3,3) + P(3,4) + P(4,1) +

P(4,2) + P(4,3) + P(4,4) = 10/16.

(b) P(X>=5 | First is 3) = P(X>=5 and First is 3)/P(First is 3) = (3/16)/(4/16)=3/4.

(c) P(X>=5 | At least 3 in one die) = P(X>=5 and At least 3 in one die)/P(At least

3 in one die) = (5/16)/(7/16)=5/7.

Manual to accompany Data, Models & Decisions: The Fundamentals of Management Science by Bertsimas and Freund. Copyright

2000, South-Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.

Instructors Manual

Chapter 2

19

2.2

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

A total of 8 outcomes: HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, and TTT.

P(HHT) = 1/8.

P(First two tosses are heads) = 2/8.

P(Two heads in a row) = 3/8.

2.3

(a) P(At least 4 years experience) = P(4 years experience) + P(5 or more years

experience) = 15/100 + 35/100 = 50/100.

(b) P(At least 4 years experience | At least 3 years experience) = P(At least 4

years experience)/P(At least 3 years experience) = (50/100)/(80/100) = 50/80.

2.4

(a) P(Oil at all three places) = (0.70)x(0.85)x(0.80) = 0.476.

(b) P(No oil at any site) = (0.30)x(0.15)x(0.20) = 0.009.

2.5

(a) P(Sunny on Wednesday) = P(Sunny on Tuesday and sunny on Wednesday) +

P(Cloudy on Tuesday and sunny on Wednesday) = (0.3)x(0.60) + (0.7)x(0.3)

= 0.18 + 0.21 = 0.39.

(b) P(Sunny on Tuesday and Wednesday) = (0.30)x(0.60) = 0.18.

2.6

(a) According to the table below the prime time slot would yield the highest

expected net profit ($112,000).

Time Slot

Morning

Afternoon

Prime Time

Late Evening

$120,000

1000000

$200,000

1300000

$400,000

3200000

$150,000

800000

Estimated Earnings

$160,000

$208,000

$512,000

$128,000

$40,000

$8,000

$112,000

-$22,000

(b) The company should buy the morning and the prime time slots, with a total

expected contribution to earnings of $152,000.

2.7

P(Regular-season show) + P(Long-term success | Middle-season show) x

P(Middle-season show) = (0.10) x (0.60) + (0.05) x (0.40) = 0.08.

2.8

Consider the decision tree below. We assume that the boxes are labeled A, B, and

C. Without loss of generality, we assume that the initially chosen box is A. Hence,

there are four possible scenarios, each with the same probability: the prize is in A

and the host shows B, the prize is in A and the host shows C, the prize is in B and

the host must show C, or the prize is in C and the host must show B. Therefore,

Manual to accompany Data, Models & Decisions: The Fundamentals of Management Science by Bertsimas and Freund. Copyright

2000, South-Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.

Instructors Manual

Chapter 2

20

the host shows B with probability 2/4 = 0.50, and it shows C with probability 2/4

= 0.50. According to this decision tree, you should always change your pick.

2.9

Let H denote the person has HIV, R the test is positive, and N the test is negative.

Then P(H) = 550000/250000000 = 0.0022, P(R | H) = 0.99, and P(N | not H) =

0.99.

(a) We want to compute P(H | R). Notice that P(R) = P(R | H)xP(H) + P(R | not

H)xP(not H) = 0.002178 + 0.009978 = 0.012156. Therefore, P(H | R) = P(R |

H)xP(H)/P(R) = 0.002178/0.012156 = 0.18.

(b) Let D denote that the person is a drug user. We want to compute P(H | R and

D). Notice that P(H and D) = 275000/250000000 = 0.0011 and P((not H) and

D) = (10000000 - 275000)/250000000 = 0.0389. We assume that P(R | H and

D) = P(R | H) = 0.99 and P(N | (not H) and D) = 0.99. Then P(R and D) =

(0.99)x(0.0011) + (0.01)x(0.0389) = 0.001478. Therefore, P(H | R and D) =

P(H and R and D)/P(R and D) = P(R | H and D)xP(H and D)/P(R and D) =

(0.99)x(0.0011)/(0.001478) = 0.74.

2.10

Let S1 denote the lamp comes from first shipment, S2 denote the lamp comes

from second shipment, and D denote the lamp is defective. We want to compare

P(S1 | D) to P(S2 | D). We have P(S1) = 100/150 = 2/3, P(S2) = 50/150 = 1/3, P(D

| S1) = 0.04, and P(D | S2) = 0.06. First, P(D) = P(D | S1)x P(S1) + P(D | S2)x

Manual to accompany Data, Models & Decisions: The Fundamentals of Management Science by Bertsimas and Freund. Copyright

2000, South-Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.

Instructors Manual

Chapter 2

21

P(S2) = 7/150. Therefore, P(S1 | D) = P(D | S1)x P(S1)/P(D) = 8/14, and P(S2 | D)

= P(D | S2)x P(S2)/P(D) = 6/14. In conclusion, the lamp is more likely to come

from the first shipment.

2.11

Let TB denote the person is infected with the TB bacteria, and let D denote the

person has the disease. We have P(TB) = 1/3 and P(D | TB) = 0.10.

(a) P(D) = P(D | TB)x P(TB) + P(D | not TB)xP(not TB) = 0.10x(1/3) + 0x(2/3) =

1/30.

(b) P(TB | not D) = P(not D | TB)xP(TB)/P(not D) = 9/29.

2.12

(a) 0.07 + 0.15 + 0.23 + 0.25 + 0.15 + 0.12 + 0.03 = 1.

(b) P(X >= 12%) = 0.25 + 0.15 + 0.12 + 0.03 = 0.55.

(c) E(X) = 11.74%.

(d) VAR(X) = 2.2924*10-4 and (X) = 1.51%.

2.13

(a) P(1 <= X <= 3) = 0.07 + 0.22 + 0.29 = 0.58.

(b) E(X) = 2.98, VAR(X) = 1.68, and (X) = 1.3.

2.14

(a) The distributions are given below.

Time Task A

1

2

P(Time)

0.40

0.60

Time Task B

1

2

3

P(Time)

0.20

0.58

0.22

Time Job

1

2

3

P(Time)

0.07

0.71

0.22

(b) E(Time A) = 1.6, E(Time B) = 2.02, and E(Time job) = 2.15; (Time A) =

0.49, (Time B) = 0.65, and (Time job) = 0.52.

(c) The distribution is given below. E(Cost) = $4,160 and (Cost) = $958.75.

Cost

$2,200

$3,400

$3,600

$4,400

$5,000

$5,800

2.15

P(Cost)

0.07

0.13

0.27

0.31

0.06

0.16

(a) 0.05 + 0.15 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.15 + 0.10 + 0.05 = 1.

(b) P(X=0) = 0.05.

(c) P(X >= 3) = 0.25 + 0.15 + 0.10 + 0.05 = 0.55.

(d) P(X >= 1) = 1 - P(X = 0) = 1 - 0.05 = 0.95.

2000, South-Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.

Instructors Manual

Chapter 2

22

(e) and (f) Let R denote the net revenue. The following table summarizes the

available options. E[R] = $50,500 and (R) = $22,600. The best option is to

add one more instructor (marginal increase of $800 in net revenues).

R

P(R) R (1 instr.) R (2 instr.) R (3 instr.)

$0

0.05

-$2,500

-$5,000

-$7,500

$20,000

0.15

-$2,500

-$5,000

-$7,500

$40,000

0.25

-$2,500

-$5,000

-$7,500

$60,000

0.25

-$2,500

-$5,000

-$7,500

$69,000

0.15

$8,500

$6,000

$3,500

$78,000

0.10

$8,500

$17,000

$14,500

$87,000

0.05

$8,500

$17,000

$25,500

Expectation

$800

-$50

-$2,000

2.16

Let X be the number of boats constructed each month and let C be the monthly

cost of the operation. Notice that C = 4800X + 30000.

(a) E(X) = 4 and (X) = 1.3.

(b) E(C) = 4800x4 + 30000 = $49,200 and (C) = 4800x(1.3) = $6,240.

(c) E(C) = 49200 + 23000 = $72,200 and (C) = $6,240.

(d) E(C) = 49200 + 4x(7000-4800) = $58,000 and (C)=7000(1.3) = $9,100.

2.17

(a) 130 + 0.2 M = 195 implies M = 325. Bill drove 300 + 325 = 625 miles.

(b) ECR rate is better if and only if M > 625. P(M > 625) = 0.13 + 0.09 + 0.08 =

0.30.

(c) Since DRA is less expensive, that means M <= 625. From the table below, it

follows that E(Cost) = $151.

Miles Cost P(Cost) P(Cost | M <= 625)

200 130

0.07

0.10

300 130

0.19

0.27

400 150

0.23

0.33

500 170

0.14

0.20

600 190

0.07

0.10

Total

0.70

1.00

Cost x P

13

35

49

34

19

151

2.18

2.19

Let T be the employee's total weekly salary and let V be the overtime per week.

Notice that T = 40x12 + 18xV = 480 + 18V. E(T) = 480 + 18x15 = $750, (T) =

18x4 = $72, and VAR(T) = 5184.

2.20

Let A, B, and C be the daily production rate of the Andover, Bedford, and

Concord plants, respectively. Notice that X = A + B + C.

(a) E(X) = E(A) + E(B) + E(C) = 91 + 67 + 69 = 227.

2000, South-Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.

Instructors Manual

Chapter 2

23

2.21

Let S denote the size of the sales force and let R denote the yearly sales revenue.

(a) E(S) = 26.25, VAR(S) = 39.7, and (S) = 6.3.

(b) E(R) = 2.8, VAR(R) =1.35, and (R) = 1.16.

(c) COV(S, R) = 6.8 and CORR(S, R) = 0.93.

2.22

Let U1 be the umbrellas sold at the department store, U2 be the umbrellas sold at

the outlet, and S be the total sales revenue. Then S = 17U1 + 9U2. E(S) =

17x(147.8) + 9x(63.2) = $3,081, VAR(S) = 289VAR(U1) + 81VAR(U2) +

2x17x9x51x37xCORR(U1, U2) = 1266773 and (S) = $1,125.51.

2.23

2.24

(a) E(R) = (0.5)(0.15) + (0.5)(0.2) = 0.175, VAR(R) = 0.25VAR(X) +

0.25VAR(Y) + 2(0.5)(0.5)(0.05)(0.06)CORR(X, Y) = 0.002, and (R) =

0.045.

(b) The expected return is always the same E(R) = 0.175. See table below for

variance and standard deviation.

CORR(X,Y)

-0.60

-0.30

0.00

0.30

0.60

VAR(R)

0.0006

0.0011

0.0015

0.0020

0.0024

(R)

0.0250

0.0328

0.0391

0.0444

0.0492

Return Plots

S.D.

0.0040

0.0030

CORR=-0.6

0.0020

CORR=-0.3

CORR=0

CORR=0.3

CORR=0.6

0.0010

0.0000

0.14

0.15

0.16

0.17

0.18

0.19

0.20

0.21

Mean

2000, South-Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.

Instructors Manual

Chapter 2

24

2.25

defective.

(a) (0.95)10 = 0.6.

(b) P(A) = P(A | D)P(D) + P(A | not D)P(not D) = (0.1)(0.05) + 1(0.95) = 0.955.

(c) P(Accepts 9 out of 10) = 10(0.95)9(0.05) = 0.32.

(d) P(not D | A) = 0.95/0.955 = 0.995.

(e) P(no defects | accepts all 10) = (0.99)10 = 0.95.

2.26

(a) P(Agree) = (0.6)(0.9) + (0.4)(0.1) = 0.6.

(b) (0.6)20 = 0.00003.

(c) Using a binomial distribution with n = 20 and p = 0.6, P(X >= 15) = 0.125.

(d) Using same distribution, P(X >= 17) = 0.015.

(e) According to (d), if the theory is false, then there is a 99% probability that the

number of years that both movements agree in a 20-year period is less than

17, that is, it is an unusual event to have X >= 17. So that, if in several

random samples of 20 years each, the event X >= 17 occurs very frequently,

then there is indication that the theory might be true. Using hypothesis testing

can make a more formal statement, which at this moment is beyond the

material covered.

2.27

Let X be the number of persons (out of 11) who show up. X is binomial with

parameters n = 11 and p = 0.8.

(a) P(X<=5) = 0.012.

(b) P(X = 10) = 11(0.8)10(0.2) =0.236.

(c) E(X) = 11(0.8) = 8.8. E(Profit) = 1200E(X) - 3000P(X=11) = $10,302.

(d) 1200(0.8)10 = $9,600.

(e) Yes, because if one person shows up, then it is very likely that his/her

companions will also show up. Therefore, the event a person shows up is not

independent of the event the next person shows up.

2.28

(a) 500(0.15) = 75.

(b) 7.98.

2.29

(a) P(Exactly one) = 9(0.06)(0.94)8 = 0.33. P(more than one) = 1 - P(exactly one)

- P(none of them) = 1 - 0.33 - 0.57 = 0.10.

(b) P(Exactly one) = 6(0.12)(0.88)5 = 0.38. P(more than one) = 1 - P(exactly one)

- P(none of them) = 1 - 0.38 - 0.46 = 0.16.

(c) (0.94)3(0.88)2 = 0.64

2.30

(a) P(At least 4) = 0.06 + 0.01 + 0.001 = 0.071.

(b) P(At most 2) = 0.118 + 0.303 + 0.324 = 0.745.

2000, South-Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.

Instructors Manual

2.31

Chapter 2

25

(0.15)4 = 0.0005.

2.32

(a) The preference of a given customer is independent of the preference of

another customer and the probability that a customer prefer thin crust pizza is

the same for all 6 customers.

(b) The distribution is in the table below.

X

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

P(X)

0

0.002

0.015

0.082

0.246

0.393

0.262

(d) E(X) = 6(0.8) = 4.8 and (X) = 0.98.

2.33

Let X be the number of times the Fund will increase over the next 12 months. X is

Binomial with n = 12 and p = 0.65.

(a) P(X = 7) = 0.204.

(b) E(X) = 12(0.65) = 7.8. Expected change = E(5X - 4(12-X)) = 9E(X) - 48 =

9(7.8) -48 = 22.2%.

2.34

Let X be the number of customers (out of 10) who are frequent ATM users. X is

Binomial with n = 10 and p = 0.4.

(a) P(X >= 4) = 0.62.

(b) P(X <= 6) = 0.945.

(c) P(4 <= X <= 6) = 0.563.

2.35

Let X be the number of clubs (out of 5) which will accept Jim. X is Binomial with

n = 5 and p = 0.65.

(a) P(X = 3) = 0.3364.

(b) P(X >= 3) = P(X=3) + P(X=4) + P(X=5) = 0.3364 + 0.3124 + 0.11603 =

0.765.

(c) 1 - (0.35)3 = 0.96.

2000, South-Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.

Instructors Manual

Chapter 2

26

2.36

Let X be the number of passengers (out of 6) who will become ill. X is Binomial

with parameters n = 6 and p = 0.12. P(X <= 2) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) =

0.46 + 0.38 + 0.13 = 0.97.

2.37

Let X be the number of devices (out of 5) which will sound an alarm when no

intruder is present. X is Binomial with parameters n = 5 and p = 0.1. P(X >= 2) =

P(X=2) + P(X=3) + P(X=4) + P(X=5) = 0.073 + 0.008 + 0.000 + 0.000 = 0.081.

2.38

Let X be the number of customers (out of 16) who come from houses in which

gas is used for residential heating. X is Binomial with parameters n = 16 and p =

0.9. P(X >= 12) = P(X=12) + P(X=13) + P(X=14) + P(X=15) + P(X=16) = 0.051

+ 0.142 + 0.275 + 0.329 + 0.185 = 0.982.

IV

DEVELOPMENT BOARD OF SINGAPORE

Consider the decision tree on the next page. According to this tree, the optimal

decision strategy is to implement the AESS plan, with an EMV of $75.5 millions.

To compute the probabilities of favorable events under the EDB&AII plan, we did

the following:

P(4 favorable events) = (0.70)x(0.60)x(0.50)x(0.90) = 0.189,

P(3

favorable

events)

=

(0.70)x(0.60)x(0.50)x(0.10)

+

(0.70)x(0.60)x(0.50)x(0.90)

+

(0.70)x(0.40)x(0.50)x(0.90)

+

(0.30)x(0.60)x(0.50)x(0.90) = 0.417,

P(2 or less favorable events) = 1 - 0.189 - 0.417 = 0.394.

Similarly, we found that under the AESS plan:

P(4 favorable events) = 0.1396,

P(3 favorable events) = 0.453,

P(2 or less favorable events) = 0.407.

2000, South-Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.

Instructors Manual

Chapter 2

27

Consider the decision tree on page 29. According to this tree, the optimal strategy

is to use the test as long as its cost is less than $2,217 = EMV(Test) - EMV(Not

test) = -7,783 - $10,000. If the result of the test is positive, then it is better to build

the retaining wall. If the result of the test is negative, then it is better not to build

the wall. If the test is not taken, then do not build the wall.

2000, South-Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.

Instructors Manual

Chapter 2

28

Let N denote the event that the result of the test is negative and S denote the event

that the slide occurs. Notice that P(not N | S) =0.9, P(N | not S) = 0.85, and P(S) =

0.9. To compute the probabilities on the branches we do the following:

P(N) = P(N | S)P(S) + P(N | not S)P(not S) = (0.1)(0.01) + (0.85)(0.99) =

0.8425

P(S | N) = (0.1)(0.01)/(0.8425) = 0.0012

P(S | not N) = (0.9)(0.01)/(0.1575) = 0.06

2000, South-Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.

Instructors Manual

Chapter 2

29

2000, South-Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.

Instructors Manual

Chapter 2

30

GRAPHIC CORPORATION

Consider the decision tree below. According to this tree, the optimal decision

strategy is to install the G-LAN using normal production techniques, with an

EMV of $637,000. Let R, S, and T denote the event we get a positive, neutral, and

negative result from the test, respectively. Let G denote the event that the G-LAN

installation is successful, and B that it is not successful. To compute the

probabilities on the branches of the tree, we do the following:

P(R) = P(R | G)P(G) + P(R | B)P(B) = (0.7)(0.92) + (0.15)(0.08) = 0.656,

P(S) = P(S | G)P(G) + P(S | B)P(B) = (0.2)(0.92) + (0.1)(0.08) = 0.192,

P(T) = P(T | G)P(G) + P(T | B)P(B) = (0.1)(0.92) + (0.75)(0.08) = 0.152,

P(B | R) = (0.15)(0.08)/(0.656) = 0.0183,

P(B | S) = (0.10)(0.08)/(0.192) = 0.0417,

P(B | T) = (0.75)(0.08)/(0.152) = 0.3947.

2000, South-Western College Publishing. Prepared by Manuel Nunez, Chapman University.

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