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T
VOL. XXV No.35

A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION


Monday, 4 10 July 2016

S
Pages.22 Rs.18

Market turns positive on broad-based buying


By Sanjay R. Bhatia
The markets witnessed a smart recovery after the previous weeks carnage due to the BREXIT referendum. Sustained
and broad-based buying support followed by follow-up buying support was witnessed at higher levels. The markets
showed no signs of weakness. The breadth of the market remained positive amidst heavy volumes, which is a positive
sign for the markets.
FIIs turned net buyers in the cash and derivatives segment during the week. DIIs, however, were seen booking profits
and turned net sellers during the week. Crude oil prices moved higher above the $50 mark on the back of expectations of
monetary policy easing due to BREXIT, which would fuel a rise in commodity prices.
Technically, the prevailing positive technical
conditions helped the markets witness buying
support. The MACD, KST and RSI are all placed above
their respective averages on the weekly chart.
Further, the Stochastic and RSI are also placed above
their respective averages on the daily chart. The Nifty
is placed above its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and
200-day SMA. The Niftys (50-100 day SMA and 50200 day SMA) Golden Cross breakout continues to
hold valid, which augurs well for the market. These
positive technical conditions could lead to follow-up
buying support.
The prevailing negative technical conditions, however,
still hold good and could weigh on the market
sentiment. The MACD and KST are both placed below their respective averages on the daily chart. Further, the Stochastic
is placed below its average on the weekly chart and in the overbought territory in the daily chart. The Nifty has formed a
negative divergence pattern on the daily chart. The Nifty's (100-200 day SMA) Death Cross breakdown continues to
hold valid. These negative technical conditions could lead to intermediate bouts of profit-booking and selling pressure.
The +DI line is placed above the ADX line and the -DI line and is also placed above the 33 level on the daily chart
indicating that buyers are gaining strength. The ADX line, on the other hand, continues to languish below the 17 level. It
is important that it moves and sustains above 25 for a trend to be established. The market sentiment has turned buoyant
on the back of good monsoon progress and on hopes that the passing of the Seventh Pay Commission could lead to
higher consumption of goods and services fueling growth in the economy.
The Nifty has taken support around the 8000 mark and bounced back from these levels. It is important that the Nifty
sustains above the 8200 mark in order to move and sustain above the 8337 resistance level and trigger a fresh round of
buying on the bourses. If it breaches the psychologically important 8K level, then it could test the 7767 level.

A Time Communications Publication

In the meanwhile, the markets could take cues from the progress of the monsoon, Parliament session, earnings season,
the Dollar-Rupee exchange rate, global markets and crude oil prices.
Technically on the upside, the BSE Sensex faces resistance at the 27650, 28100 and 28578 levels and seeks support at
the 27131, 26730, 24892, 24206, 22600, 22277 and 19963 levels. The resistance levels for the CNX Nifty are placed at
8337, 8845 and 9120 while its support levels are placed at 8200, 8117, 7979, 7909 and 7775.

BAZAR.COM

Brexit or Bear exit?


On the day of the Brexit results, markets the world turned nervous something that has never happened before and an
economic threat loomed large the highest dimension since World War II.
On Friday, 24th June 2016, the Sensex too nosedived 1100 points intra-day only to recover 450 points by the end of the
session. A 40% correction
from the lowest point
Believe it or not!
indicated that the knee Goldiam International recommended at Rs.62.8 on 20 June 2016,
jerk fall was unwarranted.
Analysts compared this fall
recorded a new 52-week high at Rs.94 last week fetching excellent
with the 2008 Lehman
returns of 50% in just two weeks!
crisis and averred to
conclude that the 2008
Coral Laboratories recommended at Rs.445.7 on 20 June 2016, touched
crisis was a damp squib
Rs.568.5 last week fetching excellent returns of 28% in just two weeks!
compared to the Brexit fall!
Cineline India recommended at Rs.44.4 on 13 June 2016, touched
People tend to forget that
Rs.65.05 last week fetching excellent returns of 47% in just three weeks!
the Lehman fall occurred
after the markets massive
Manappuram Finance recommended at Rs.53.85 on 30 May 2016,
fall in January 2008 from
recorded a new 52-week high at Rs.72.6 last week fetching excellent
Sensex 21000 to paltry
below 10000 in three
returns of 35% in just one month!
months! It is also forgotten
ARSS Infrastructure Projects recommended at Rs.32.1 on 22 February
that the euphoria of built2016, recorded a new 52-week high at Rs.89.45 last week fetching
up positions and the
drastic P/E expansions
excellent returns of 179% in just four and a half months!
then were responsible for
Pee Cee Cosma Sope recommended at Rs.76.5 on 21 March 2016,
the fall. Hence, the
September 2008 fall looks
touched Rs.94.5 last week, recording 24% appreciation in less than 3
pretty small compared to
months.
the 24th June BREXIT fall.
This happens only in Money Times!
The intra-day fall of 1100
Sensex points was thus
more of a sentimental
reaction and not a fundamental one. The markets in June 2016 neither have euphoric dimensions of long built-up
positions nor have the P/E multiples crazily expanded. The basic economic fundamentals both at the macro and micro
levels are far superior today than they were in 2008. Thus, the market is in a much better place today to overcome any
crisis of sentiment and this is exactly what is unfolding - the strength of the benchmark and non-benchmark levels on the
rollover day (Thursday, 30 June 2016).
The Indian stock markets have displayed tremendous strength, thanks to the central government. The fears raised on
Raghuram Rajans exit were also put to rest by the governments strong single handed reforms and FDI announcements.
PM Narendra Modis interview with Arnab Goswami on a Times Now clarified most of the doubts raised about his
governance and policies. The R-exit syndrome was put to rest when PM Modi said that Rajan will be available for the
countrys upkeep and growth, no matter where he is.
Rajans tweets like I have been reading my obituaries in the papers. I am still alive. I will be coming in and out of the
country. Dont write me off, comforted the market sentiment. The slow credit growth is because of high NPAs and not
high interest rates, he said in defence of his sticking to the guns by refusing rate declines.

A Time Communications Publication

During the last ten days, PSU bank stocks have rallied smartly as most of them have appreciated 10-20%. The good news
is that banks are getting into the spirit of cleaning-up and pursuing reluctant promoters (read borrowers) to take
necessary steps to rehabilitate projects. The rise in BSE Bankex and Bank Nifty is sufficient proof of this.
The change recorded at PSU counters warrant a mention here. During the last thirty days, the smart movers have gained
as follows: Dena Bank (+37%), PNB (+35%), Central Bank(+30%), BOI (+16%), BOB (+11%) and SBI (+9%). Analysts
feel that most of the PSU banks look attractive with a price:book value ratio (a gauge for valuation) of 1 or less than one.
The simultaneous underperformance of private sector banks was due to the trimming of positions by FIIs. While PSU
banks gained handsomely, the likes of ICICI and HDFC Bank were at the receiving end.
Gains in the likes of Bosch, Hero Motocorp, NTPC, BHEL, Power Grid etc. have given a fresh fuel to the Nifty. Mid-cap
benchmark gained handsomely thanks to the rise in DLF, Bharat Forge, JSW Energy, Concurrent India Infrastructure and
Bajaj Finserv. The rise in OMCs like BPCL, HPCL and IOC also need a special mention here. These three oil marketing
majors are believed to be in for a big upmove from hereon. Market pundits believe that GAIL is another silent mover
readying for a big push.
The government approved the Seventh Pay Commissions recommendations which gives another boost to consumer
spending, the lifeline of corporates top-line growth. A snowballing effect on the economy is forecast and the sectors
such as auto, consumer durables and FMCG are in for a great re-rating.
In fact, the inherent strength at the market points towards the re-rating of current valuations of the market in general
and of certain sectors in particular.

TRADING ON TECHNICALS

Upmove restored
By Hitendra Vasudeo
Last week, the
Sensex opened
Last Close
at
26347.81,
attained a low at 26262.72 and moved up to a high of 27243.35 before it finally closed the week at 27144.91 and thereby
showed a net rise of 747 points on a week-to-week basis.
The Sensex crossed the Brexit high that was formed two weeks back of 27060 and in fact closed above it at 27144. The
event was thus futile and only disturbed the market sentiment. It helped possible to make a swing bottom at 25911.
Weekly chart
The effect and impact of Brexit was short-lived and the low of 25911 was not violated and last week was a bullish candle.
A breakout and weekly close at 27243 [above the
two-weeks high of 27105] was witnessed.
The supply zone is still placed in the higher range of
27190-27618. In spite of the supply zone, the Sensex
will be able to move towards 27853 at least.
Resistance for the week is placed at 27618 and
27853 while weekly support is placed at 2688326523-25911.
A further downside will resume only if 25911 is
violated on a weekly closing. Till then, a correction
above 25911 would provide entry opportunities.
Daily chart oversold on indicators like Stochastic
may help to provide entry as long as 25911 is not
violated by index and index-related stocks.
The Fib Fan/Speed Line has shown a breakout on 27
May 2016, a rise to 27105 was seen and Brexit correction to 25911 which took it below the Fib Fan but closed high
above it on 24 June 2016. Last week, a bullish candle confirmed the breakout for Fib Retracement target of 27852 and
29062.
Expect 27852 to be around the lower top of 27618. For the time being, focus could be on 27618-27852 while hoping for
no new hic-ups.
Sensex
27144

Daily Trend
Up

A Time Communications Publication

DRV
26562

Weekly Trend
Up

WRV
25908

Monthly Trend
Up

MRV
25771

Trend based on Rate of Change (RoC)


Weekly chart:
1-week trend - Up
3-week trend - Up
8-week trend - Up
Daily chart:
1-day trend - Up
3-day trend - Up
8-day trend Up
BSE Mid-Cap Index
Trend based on RoC
Weekly chart:
1-week trend - Up
3-week trend - Up
8-week trend - Up
A strong breakout on the BSE Mid-cap index was witnessed as it made a new historical high. The peak of 11666 was
crossed which suggests a near-term rally with volatility in mid-cap stocks. The close last week was at 11857.
Expect a rally towards 13100, which is 161.8% retracement of the fall and consolidation from 11666 to 9389 between
August 2015 and March 2016.
Strategy for the week
Traders can now revise upwards the stop loss to 25911. A weaker opening and correction during the week to 2688326523 can be used for accumulating index and index-related stocks. Mid-cap stocks will continue to outperform. A rally
towards 27618 or above is likely in the near-to- short-term.
WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS
Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with whatever low
registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above then look to book profits as
the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on
Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip

MUTHOOT FINANCE
DALMIA BHARAT ENTERP
YES BANK
V-GUARD INDUSTRIES
ESCORTS

Last
Close

Level
1

Level
2

Center
Point

Level
3

Level
4

Relative
Strength

Weekly
Reversal
Value

Up
Trend
Date

288.50
1212.60
1129.90
1399.45
223.30

Weak
below
277.5
1064.9
1062.8
1342.5
208.3

Demand
point
277.7
1110.2
1083.8
1349.0
211.6

Demand
point
288.3
1167.3
1108.9
1392.9
220.0

Supply
point
299.2
1269.8
1155.0
1443.4
231.8

Supply
point
320.7
1429.4
1226.2
1537.9
252.0

76.6
69.6
69.4
69.2
68.7

272.9
1083.5
1085.6
1364.7
196.5

18-03-16
13-05-16
04-03-16
01-07-16
10-06-16

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS


Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with whatever high
registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to cover short
positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend.
Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip

ITC
KPIT TECHNOLOGIES LT

Last
Close

252.35
157.50

A Time Communications Publication

Level
1

Level
2

Center
Point

Level
3

Level
4

Demand
point

Demand
point

Supply
point

Supply
point

Strong
above

79.9
117.7

207.2
147.3

289.3
166.6

334.5
176.8

371.4
185.9

Relative
Strength

Weekly
Reversal
Value

Down
Trend
Date

24.66
47.46

329.21
176.29

24-06-16
24-06-16

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend.
Close below averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility
(Up/Down) within Down Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative
Strength (RS) is statistical indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.
EXIT LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip

NILKAMAL

Last
Close

Supply
Point

Supply
Point

Supply
Point

Strong Above

1230.00

1240.72

1246.50

1252.28

1271.00

Demand Monthly
Point
RS

1142.7

46.23

BUY LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip

Last Close Demand point Demand point Weak below

Supply Point

Supply Point

Monthly RS

PUNTER PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a
possible time frame of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above, RS- Strength
Scrip

BSE Code

Last
Close

Demand Point

Trigger

Weak
below

Supply point

Supply
point

RSStrength

GILLANDERS ARBUTHNOT
BANNARI AMMA.SPIN.MI
CHANNEL GUIDE INDIA
DHUN TEAIND
CPSE ETF
3M INDIA
SJVN
892NHPC33
TD POWER

532716
532674
531337
538902
538057
523395
533206
961792
533553

69.30
262.50
12.16
329.05
21.44
13318.00
28.85
1311.00
235.85

66.35
246.00
11.96
311.15
20.78
13100.00
28.45
1260.00
227.30

70.00
264.95
12.18
336.00
21.60
13370.00
30.10
1311.00
244.00

60.00
232.10
11.72
292.50
20.26
12083.00
28.05
1250.00
220.00

76.2
285.3
12.5
362.9
22.4
14165.4
31.4
1348.7
258.8

86.2
318.1
12.9
406.4
23.8
15452.4
33.4
1409.7
282.8

78.19
74.22
71.35
63.07
62.87
53.3
52.9
51.43
51.24

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend.
Close below averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility
(Up/Down) within Down Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.
! Note: Momentum breakout trend of stocks value(volume*close) between 10-80 lakhs.
TOWER TALK
L&T Infotechs Rs.1233 crore IPO will open on 11th July. Buy Larsen & Toubro for decent gains.
Disintegration of the European Community wont impact the Indian markets significantly. The Indian economy is
quite strong and with the economic reforms rolling, the markets will fare better in times to come.
There is no stopping for Thirumalai Chemicals, which is still an attractive buy.
Dewan Housing Finance Corporation may rise in view of excellent business prospects and its recent foray into the
insurance sector. A safe Buy.
Parag Milk Foods plans to add value-added products to its portfolio. A good Buy.
CEAT expects to sustain its top-line and bottom-line. The recent correction in its share price makes it an attractive
buy.

A Time Communications Publication

The metals and mining policy to be cleared soon indicates that Vedanta, GMDC, NMDC and Ashapura Minechem
have good times ahead. Buy for the long term.
With promoters plans to infuse huge capital and wipe off debts, DLF looks like a good long-term investment.
IG Petrochemicals can be bought in view of its excellent working and high demand.
With an EPS of Rs.68 and high dividend payout of Rs.13.5, Great Eastern Shipping Company appears to be a good
bet on rising Baltic index.
Srikalahasthi Pipes is the next potential multi-bagger. With a continuous rise in earnings (EPS Rs.40+), its share is
available dirt cheap at Rs.255. Buy for 100% returns within a year.
Equitas Holdings may jump from Rs.180 to Rs.350 in a few months. An excellent Buy.
SKS Microfinance has shown signs of a breakout. Its lost glory may return soon.
Ashok Alco-Chem is rising again. This small-cap company in the ceramic sector has fared exceptionally well. Buy
before its too late.
With big defence orders in hand, Zen
Free 2-day trial of Live Market Intra-day Calls
Technologies will certainly rally. Buy and
A running commentary of intra-day trading recommendations
relax.
with buy/sell levels, targets, stop loss on your mobile every
Revival in infrastructure, falling interest
trading
rates and the governments focus on road
day of the moth along with pre-market notes via email for
projects will benefit IL&FS Transportation
Rs.4000 per month.
Networks. Buy for a short-term price target
of Rs.100.
Contact Money Times on 022-22616970 or
moneytimes.support@gmail.com to register for a free trial
An Ahmedabad-based analyst recommends
APM Industries, Carnation Industries,
Edelweiss Financial Services, IOL Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals, JM Financial, and Patels Airtemp (India). His
Pressman Advertising recommended at Rs.45 last week zoomed to Rs.53.5 while Kanco Tea jumped to Rs.188
from Rs.169 in just one week. On 4th April, he recommended GNFC at Rs.80 which zoomed to Rs.177 last week,
fetching excellent returns of 121% in less than 3 months.
Grey market premium for Quess Corp IPO is Rs.170-175.

BEST BET

GHCL Ltd

For the busy investor


(BSE Code: 500171) (CMP: Rs.192) (FV: Rs.10)
Fresh One Buy Daily
By Amit Gupta
Fresh One Buy Daily is for investors/traders who are keen
GHCL Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the
to focus and gain from a single stock every trading day.
manufacture and trade of inorganic chemicals, home
With just one daily recommendation selected from stocks in
textiles and wind power generation. It operates through 3
an uptrend, you can now book profit the same day or carry
segments - Inorganic Chemicals, Textiles and Others. In the
over the trade if the target is not met. Our review over the
chemicals segment, it manufactures Soda Ash (Anhydrous
next 4 days will provide new exit levels while the stock is still
Sodium Carbonate) which is a raw material for detergents
in an uptrend.
and the Glass Industry and sodium bicarbonate (baking
This low risk, high return product is available for online
soda). The Companys textile operations comprise spinning
subscription at Rs.2500 per month.
of fibre, weaving, dyeing and printing till the making of the
finished products such as sheets and duvets, which are
Contact us on 022-22616970 or email us at
exported across the world.
moneytimes.suppport@gmail.com for a free trial
GHCL is also produces edible and industrial grade salt. Its
subsidiary - Grace Home Fashion LLC is engaged in the
business of home textiles which caters to home-textile retailers and is also into the online home-textile business in USA.
GHCLs soda ash business is a steady cash generator with a capacity of 0.85 MMTPA, accounting for 23% of the countrys
total demand. Its soda ash business contributes 58% to revenues and 80% to its profitability. This segment is a cash cow
for the Company with largely stable volumes and high profitability. Demand for soda ash is likely to grow at a steady
pace of 5% CAGR over the next few years-similar to the rate seen in the last decade. Moreover, prices of soda ash have
A Time Communications Publication

risen at a steady pace corresponding to the increase in input costs. On the back of strong contribution margins and the
Companys depreciated plant, its soda ash business supports strong free cash flow (FCF) generation. With steady
demand-supply dynamics going forward, this business is likely to continue generating steady cash flows for GHCL. We
expect revenues from this segment to increase at 4% CAGR over FY16-18E. Further, margins in this segment are
expected to stay healthy at 30%.
GHCLs textiles segment is a beneficiary of the rising export opportunities in the home textiles sector in India. India has a
competitive advantage in the bed linen space given the focus on capability and capacity and acceptance of smaller
volume quantity as against China where focus is more on bulk quantities. Further, most of the players present in this
thin margin spinning business have forward integrated into the high margin home textiles segment.
GHCL is one of the late entrants in the home textile segment wherein it takes time to acquire quality customers with
healthy volumes and pricing. It competes with established players like Welspun and Indo Count. The Company exports
its fabrics to private label brands. Being a late entrant, GHCLs margins are also one of the lowest in the business mainly
due to low utilization rates.
Valuation: GHCLs strong FCF generating business (FCF yield of ~30%), falling debt:equity ratio to 0.6x (from 1.2x) and
its ability to protect the margins in soda ash in a weak market driven by cost leadership is not truly reflected in its
current valuation.
Valuations:
The ongoing capex in soda ash and potential ramp up in the
Particulars
FY14
FY15 FY16
FY17E FY18E
textile segment will drive the Companys earnings at a CAGR
P/E
(x)
11.9
8
6.4
5.6
4.5
of 21% with RoE of 28% over FY16-18E.
P/CEPS (x)
7.6
5.7
4.9
4.4
3.5
Technical Outlook: The GHCL Ltd stock looks good on the
P/BV (x)
2.9
2.2
1.7
1.4
1.1
daily chart for medium-term investment. It has formed a
EV/Sales
(x)
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.1
0.9
higher high and higher low pattern with a strong uptrend.
5.5
4.5
4.2
3.2
Moreover, it currently trades above all moving averages like EV/EBITDA (x) 7
the 200 DMA.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.192 and on dips to Rs.175 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.225+ in the next 6 months.

GURU SPEAK

Sensex to touch 30,000 by December end


Last week, the stock market had overreacted on the Brexit news followed by global markets too. It is indeed surprising
that the stock markets did not bother about the seriousness of Brexit at first. On the contrary, global markets continued
to rally till the day before i.e. 23 June 2016, which kept the intermediary forces tension-free feeling that nothing was
going to happen and if Brexit does not happen then the markets may rally further.
This kind of optimism among market players resulted in large outstanding positions supported
by pre-poll surveys on 23rd June. Next day, on Friday, 24 June 2016, when the counting of votes
began, it sent shivers as Brexit succeeded with 51.8% in favour with 48.2% against it. Naturally,
global markets reeled in panic!
Thus, panic selling was followed by forceful squaring up on overleveraged positions due to
shortfall in margin and mark to market losses, which was a double-edged pressure to sell-off.
This is why I refer to it as the markets overreaction on 24 June 2016 on the Brexit issue.
All TV channels, media and technical experts presented a very gloomy picture to follow on
By G. S. Roongta
account of Brexit. No one had the courage to provide any moral support. On the contrary, print
media blared in bold & big letters.
a) A Divided Kingdom: Britain Walks Out
b) The Pound Plunges to the Lowest since 1985
c) Global Stock Markets & Currencies Nosedive to Historical Lows As Highest Single Day Fall
d) Another Lehman Like Shock
e) Indian Cos With Large Exposure In UK, EU To Suffer The Most
All such pronouncements created panic among investors and they had no choice but to liquidate their outstanding
positions in fear before it worsened further.
A Time Communications Publication

The Indian Rupee may fall to new lows against the US Dollar in wild swings was the fear addressed on page 6 of
Economic Times under Brexit & After on Saturday, 25 June 2016.
Since fear is fear, how one can stand and sustain it? This is the real test in such circumstances. Some burn their fingers,
few face it, most try and run away. Barely a handful succeed to conquer the situation with courage.
Money Times, in these circumstances, was one such publication that courageously declared the same evening on page 5
with broad headline Market will digest Brexit blow soon. And this is exactly what happened as evident in the next five
working sessions.
As the BSE Sensex nosedived intra-day by nearly 1100 points on Friday, 24 June 2016, it recovered 40% from the low
the same day and almost all the loss by Thursday, 30 June 2016, i.e. in just four trading sessions.
Last week, I had clearly said Brexit news was like a bomb hoax with people running helter skelter in fear till the hoax is
realized.
NIFTY & BANK NIFTY
The second observation that I made in last weeks
article was that we should not get carried away
(Live Market)
by global events to determine where our market
Identifies intra-day Trading Opportunities and also
is headed. Our focus should be on the monsoon,
provides
positional calls for a day or two depending on the
passage of the GST Bill and the government
range of the target.
reforms. Such issues will boost the countrys
economy and industrial growth will register the
Available daily by SMS or on Live Chat.
highest gain among developing countries.
Subscription Rate: Rs.3000 per month & Rs.24,000 per
Besides this, the government has broadly
annum.
accepted the recommendations of the Seventh
Contact us on 022-22616970 for a FREE 2-Day Trial.
Pay Commission doling out goodies in the form of
salary and pension hikes benefitting nearly one crore Indians with which demand is clearly set to get a big boost in
2016-17.
Further, the interest rate in 2016-17 is also expected to come down by 1.25-1.75% in the Monetary Policy
announcements after RBI Governor, Raghuram Rajan completes his term in September 2016. The new RBI Governor
may not be so rigid and make consumer price index [CPI] below 5% as a pre-condition to reduce interest rates.
I personally feel that CPI will fall between 4.5-5% from July/August onwards due to plentiful rainfall despite the Seventh
Pay Commission salary and pension payout going forward.
There are, therefore, a series of good reasons for the Indian economy to take-off in 2016-17 and so also the stock market
to hit a Sensex high of 30K by December 2016 about which I have no doubt.
However, speculators and operators will continue to play their game with benchmark stocks to confuse investors and
intermediaries and misguide them to their advantage. Do not get depressed by their play in F&O stocks.
I have been emphasizing since a year that small-cap and mid-cap stocks are likely to outperform in 2016-17. Every day,
there are about 50 stocks that are hitting 10-20% upper circuits and the list of such outperformers is lengthening each
passing day. Even on Friday, 24 June 2016, quite a few stocks registered 20% upper circuits despite the 1100 Sensex fall
with an overall sell-off.
This list is much longer if mid-cap and small-cap stocks are considered.
The market is thus back to the pavilion as the benchmarks closed at a new 2016 high followed by global markets, which
also bounced back leaving the Brexit fear far behind. The markets are now breathing fresh.
The Indian stock market is now more jubilant while trading at the highest level of 2016, which clearly signals that the
market sentiment has changed for the better on account of good monsoon as per IMDs forecast.
Investors must remain invested and accumulate stocks from sectors like steel, cement, fertilisers, chemicals, capital
goods, textiles and sugar as these sectors are likely to outperform in FY2016-17.
Panchratnas 10th edition will be released on Saturday, 2nd July 2016. It may be noted that the stocks selected this time
are of great importance as most of them are leaders in their sectors and are yet available at attractive prices and can gain
by 100-200%.
I have been advocating that the core industries under the UPA regime were on the verge of shutting down but have now
revived under the NDA government. Prominent among them are Steel, Sugar, Textiles, Fertilizers and Capital Goods.
Stocks selected out of these sectors have sufficient liquidity and no subscriber can claim that they are not being traded. It
is up to subscribers to take advantage of such stocks for reaping a good harvest as these stocks have the capacity to rise
in multiples which and are currently available in an attractive price range.
A Time Communications Publication

It may also be noted that 2016-17 will prove to be the best year for stock markets after several years and small-cap and
mid-cap stocks can only add to investors wealth who have limited funds to invest.
It may also be noted that few stocks belonging to sectors like Steel and Real Estate which had not appreciated, have also
started joining the list of good gainers from the earlier 9 editions.

FIFTY: FIFTY
By Vijay Gadgil

Meghmani
Organics Ltd
(BSE Code: 532865)
(CMP: Rs.39.65) (FV:
Re.1)
Meghmani Organics Ltd
(MOL) is engaged in the
business of pesticides
and pigments (blue and
green)
and
basic
chemicals.
Its
manufacturing facility is
located in Bharuch in
Gujarat.
The promoters hold
50.52% of the equity
capital without any
pledged shares. Mr.
Ashish Soparkar and
Patel Natwarlal Meghji
and
family
hold
maximum stake in the
company.
Operations: For FY16,
the Companys net
profit soared 88% to
Rs.82.58 crore from
Rs.43.89 crore in FY15
on 5% higher total
income of Rs.1355.94
crore
as
against
Rs.1294.21 crore in
FY15 fetching an EPS of
Rs.3.25. Its profit has
consistently increased
over the last four years
from Rs.3.48 crore in
FY12 to Rs.82.58 crore
in
FY16.
During
Q4FY16, its net profit
rose to Rs.34.9 crore
from Rs.22.61 crore in
Q4FY15 on higher total
income of Rs.360.77
crore
as
against
A Time Communications Publication

Rs.294.98 crore in Q4FY15 fetching an EPS of Rs.0.9.


Financials: With an equity capital of Rs.25.43 crore and reserves of Rs.526.1 crore, its share book value works out to
Rs.21.69 as at 31 March 2015. Its secured and unsecured loans stood at Rs.500.22 crore and Rs.10 crore respectively.
Contingent liabilities stood at Rs.175.49 crore.
Dividend: The Company has regularly paid dividends since 2008. For FY16, it paid a dividend of 30%.
Outlook: Mr. Ashish Soparkar expects the
Companys turnover to increase by Rs.300
crore in FY17 and by Rs.350 crore in FY18
and also intends to repay Rs.100 crore
Can you spot a winner?
loan annually, which is a very positive
sign for the Company. The Indian
Are you keen to write?
chemical industry has a bright future and
If your answer is YES to all the three questions, MONEY TIMES, launched
due to heavy pollution, some Chinese
by the pioneers of investment journalism, invites you to join its team of
companies are shifting their base to other
contributors.
countries. Indian chemical companies
shall definitely benefit by this more.
Each and every analyst on our panel is passionate about stock
Conclusion: Currently, the MOL share
investments and is an expert in his field. What is, however, more
trades at attractive valuation of P/E 9.6x
significant is that most of them were our subscribers first and have
as against the industry P/E of 32.5x. The
been writing for over 20 years now.
Company is expected to post a profit of
So if you want to join this eminent group, write to
Rs.105 crore in FY17 which translates
moneytimes.support@gmail.com and send us a sample of your article
into an EPS of Rs.4.12. A reasonable P/E
written or published.
of just 19x will take its share price to
Rs.78. Investors can buy this stock for a
price target of Rs.75+ in the medium-to-long term. Its 52-week high/low is Rs.46.75/17.30.
*******

Are you passionate about stocks?

Anant Raj Ltd


(BSE Code: 515055) (CMP: Rs.48.55) (FV: Rs.2)
Haryana-based Anant Raj Ltd (formerly known as Anant Raj Industries Ltd) is involved in the business of construction
and real estate development. It is engaged in the development and construction of IT parks, hospitality projects, special
economic zones (SEZs), office complexes, shopping malls and residential projects in Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan and the
National Capital Region (NCR). It holds approximately 1,100 acres developable land banks in NCR of which 430 acres is
in Delhi.
The Company's hotel projects include Hotel Mapple Emerald, Hotel Ocean Pearl Retreat, Hotel Mapple Exotica, Orana
Hotels and Resorts. Its residential project includes Anant Raj Estate in Gurgaon, which is being developed over 160 acres
of land. Its commercial project includes the Moments Mall at Kirti Nagar, New Delhi. It has also developed two IT parks.
The promoters hold 63.44% of the equity capital without any pledged shares. Mr. Ashok Sarin and family hold maximum
stake in the company along with Anant Raj Agencies Pvt Ltd.
Operations: For FY16, the Companys net profit declined to Rs.64.19 crore from Rs.142.38 crore in FY15 on lower total
income of Rs.443.3 crore as against Rs.484.08 crore in FY15. Its profit declined mainly on account of higher other
expenses which increased by Rs.89 crore. During Q4FY16, its net profit declined to Rs.12.33 crore from Rs.17.1 crore in
Q4FY15 on lower total income of Rs.116.23 crore as against Rs.145.34 crore in Q4FY15.
Financials: With an equity capital of Rs.59.02 crore and reserves of Rs.4074.87 crore, its share book value works out to
Rs.140.09 as at 31 March 2015. Its secured and unsecured loans stood at Rs.890.71 crore and Rs.70.25 crore
respectively.
Dividend: The Company has regularly paid dividends since 2006 except in 2013. For FY16, it paid a dividend of 12%.
Outlook: The management in June 2016 said that opportunities and risks are being assessed and restructuring, which
may involve a de-merger/hive off/spin off of certain projects, will enable the Company to carry out its business activities
with greater focus and efficiency. Ace investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holds 95 lakh shares and the Government of
Singapore holds 124 lakh shares of the Company.

A Time Communications Publication

10

As compared to other construction companies, Anant Raj has low debt. It holds 1100 acres of land. At present, the realty
sector is down. But once it picks up, Anant Raj Ltd has the potential to turn from a mid-cap to a large-cap company in the
next ten years.
The Company had purchased certain land parcels for Rs.1000 crore in 2008. The project being developed over it is
expected to be completed by 2018 which, according to them, will be valued at Rs.5000 crore.
Conclusion: Even though the Companys latest results are not impressive, it has a bright future. The Company has
earned profits of over Rs.100 crore over the last four years.
The Anant Raj share was trading at Rs.35-45 levels for almost a year on account of poor results. But it has now achieved
the breakout level and trades above all simple moving averages. Investors can buy this hidden gem for a price target of
Rs.80 in the next 6 months or Rs.100 within a year. Its 52-week high/low is Rs.54.45/27.55.
*******

Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd


(BSE Code: 532181) (CMP: Rs.77.40) (FV: Rs.2)
Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd (GMDC) is a holding company which operates through two segments:
Mining and Power. Its projects include Lignite, Bauxite, Fluorspar, Multi Metal, Manganese, Power, Wind and Solar. It
operates six lignite mines. The Company has bauxite mining operations at its Mewasa Bauxite Mines in Devbhoomi
Dwarka, Gujarat, Fluorspar project at Kadipani, Baroda, Multi-Metal project at Ambaji, Banaskantha, Manganese project
at Shivrajpur, Panchmahal, and Power project at Nani Chher, Kutch. The Company's Wind Farm projects are situated at
different locations in Gujarat and its 5 MW solar power project is situated at its Panandhro Lignite site.
The central and state governments together hold 74% of the equity capital without any pledged shares.
Operations: For FY16, the Companys consolidated net profit declined 52% to Rs.241.17 crore from Rs.500.32 crore in
FY15 on 15% lower total income of Rs.1202.73 crore as against Rs.1418.88 crore in FY15 fetching an EPS of Rs.7.58. Its
profit declined mainly on account of a fall in lignite prices, which have bottomed out and can rise anytime from now.
During Q4FY16, its standalone net profit declined to Rs.50.99 crore from Rs.234.96 crore in Q4FY15 on lower total
income of Rs.359.36 crore as against Rs.400.48 crore in Q4FY15 fetching an EPS of Rs.1.6.
Financials: With an equity capital of Rs.63.6 crore and reserves of Rs.3177.9 crore, its share book value works out to
Rs.101.93 as at 31 March 2015.
Dividend: The Company has an excellent track record of paying dividends regularly since 2000. For FY16, it paid a
dividend of 150%.
Bonus: GMDC issued a 1:1 bonus in 2008.
Outlook: In May 2016, the central government agreed to the government of Gujarats request to reserve lignite and get
it mined at GMDCs Valia block in Bharuch. With this, the Company is likely to get over 100 million tonnes lignite mined
on 3,015 hectares of land, which is worth around Rs.10000 crore.
Conclusion: The share of this dividend-paying and almost debt-free company is available at attractive valuations of P/E
7x as against the industry P/E of 11x. With a likely rise in mineral prices, particularly lignite, we expect the Company to
post net profit of Rs.350 crore in FY17 and Rs.500 crore in FY18 which translates into an EPS of Rs.11 for FY17 and
Rs.15.72 for FY18. Investors can buy this stock for a price target of Rs.100+ in the next 6 months or Rs.125 within a year.
Its 52-week high/low is Rs.99.25/52.35.

STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta

Orient Paper & Industries Ltd


(BSE Code: 502420) (CMP: Rs.50.50) (FV: Re.1) (TGT: Rs.60+)
Orient Paper & Industries Ltd (OPIL) manufactures pulp and paper, electric lighting equipment and electrical fans. It
operates through 3 segments - Paper, Electrical Consumer Durables and Others. Its Paper segment comprises
manufacture and sale of pulp, paper and board (tissue paper and writing and printing [W&P] paper) and chemicals. Its
electrical consumer durables segment comprises manufacture, purchase and sale of electric fans including ceiling,
portable and airflow along with components and accessories, lights and luminaries, household appliances and
A Time Communications Publication

11

switchgears. The others segment consists of other miscellaneous business and services. The Company's manufacturing
facilities are located at Faridabad and Kolkata for electric products and Amlai for paper.
OPIL has a paper capacity of 85,000 TPA (60,000 TPA of W&P paper and 25,000 TPA of tissue paper). The demand for
tissue paper in India continues to register a double digit growth with an equally strong export market (exports
contribute to over 50% of the Companys tissue production). OPIL plans to double the capacity of its tissue plant to
50,000 TPA by importing a second hand machine from P&G for Rs.70 crore. This plant has the potential to generate
Rs.125 crore/annum at the current realizations of Rs.62000/TMT. This plant will start contributing fully from FY18.
The margins of the Companys paper division are expected to improve further in FY17 as the benefits of better
realizations and lower costs were felt only in the last five months of FY16. Hence considering a full year impact of the
turnaround, FY17 looks significantly better for earnings in the paper division albeit on a muted topline as the paper
plant is currently shut due to shortage of water. The Company has advanced its annual maintenance shutdown which
was last year carried in July 2015 for a period of 9 days. The plant is shut currently and is expected to lose production for
a month.
OPIL expects a double-digit growth in its fans and lighting segment for FY17 and also expects to scale up its Appliances
and Switchgear segment. The Company commands a market share of 18% in the domestic fan segment and is the largest
exporter of fans from India offering a range of 200+ varieties of fans in price points ranging from Rs.500-4000.
OPIL has scaled up its LED lighting segment through government orders, which come at wafer thin margins of 5%. The
Company has started off FY17 on a strong note as per our channel checks and we expect it to record a turnover of
Rs.1480 crore implying a 14% Y-o-Y growth.
Valuation: OPIL has a land parcel of approximately 800 acres at Brajarajnagar, Odisha. Apart from this, it also has small
land parcels/buildings at different locations in India. The Companys quoted investments include 1.54 million shares of
Century Textiles and 0.9 million shares of Hyderabad Industries.
Technical Outlook: The Orient Paper & Industries Ltd share looks good on the daily chart for medium-term investment.
It has formed a higher high and higher low pattern with a strong uptrend. Moreover, it currently trades above all
important moving averages like the 200 DMA.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.50.50 and on dips to Rs.43 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.60+ in the next 6 months.
*******

Orient Cement Ltd


(BSE Code: 535754) (CMP: Rs.181.80) (FV: Re.1) (TGT: Rs.220+)
Orient Cement Ltd manufactures and sells cement. Its products include Birla A1 Premium Cement, Birla A1 Premium
Cement-OPC 53 Grade and Birla A1 Premium Cement-OPC 43 Grade. Its manufacturing facilities are located at Devapur
in Telangana and at Jalgaon in Maharashtra. Its greenfield cement plant near Chittapur in Karnataka has an installed
capacity of about 3 MMTPA.
Orient Cement is a part of the CK Birla Group, which operates in three industry clusters - technology and automotive;
home and building; and healthcare and education. It operates through a network of 40 offices.
Orient Cement expects its new 3 MMTPA plant to operate at 60% capacity in FY17. It expects balance volumes to be
contributed by its old Devapur plant in Telangana. While the downward trend in cement prices in Telangana has
reversed from mid-May 2016, demand/prices in Maharashtra will remain muted due to water shortage.
The Company plans to de-bottleneck its 0.8 MMTPA clinkerisation facility at Devapur at an estimated capex of Rs.100
crore and add a 2 MMTPA grinding unit at Brijrajnagar, Odisha on land owned by sister-concern Orient Paper Ltd at an
estimated capex of Rs.450 crore. It may also incur capex of Rs.2000 crore for 2.5-3 MMTPA greenfield expansion at
Chittorgarh and also double its capacity to 6 MMTPA at Gulbarga.
Orient Cement is in advanced talks with a target company, which may entail cash outgo of Rs.1500-2000 crore to be
funded via a mix of debt and equity, the outcome of which shall be known over the next 8-10 weeks.
The Companys operating costs are likely to come down further on commissioning of CPP (captive power plant), higher
use of petcoke at its new Gulbarga plant (which is yet to use petcoke) and higher utilisation. It also plans to add a 6 MW
waste heat recovery unit and railway sidings at Gulbarga over the next 18 months.
The Company incurred capex of Rs.340 crore in FY16 and is expected to incur capex of Rs.150 crore on railway sidings
and maintenance during FY17.

A Time Communications Publication

12

Technical Outlook: The Orient Cement Ltd stock looks good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It has
formed a higher high and higher low pattern with a strong uptrend. Moreover, the stock currently trades above all
important moving averages like the 200 DMA.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.181.80 and on dips to Rs.160 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.220+ in the next 6 months.

MARKET REVIEW

Sensex surges higher


By Devendra A Singh
Equity markets advanced last week on strong buying by market
participants. The BSE Sensex surged 747.2 points to close at
27144.91 and the CNX Nifty closed 239.75 points higher at
8328.35 for the week ending Friday, 1 July 2016.
On the macro front, the Markit Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers' Index (PMI) jumped to 51.7 in June 2016 from 50.7 in
the previous month. Manufacturing activity edged up to a threemonth high in June 2016 driven by strong demand.
Pollyanna De Lima, economist at Markit said, The domestic
market continues to be the main growth driver, as the Indian
economic upturn provides a steady stream of new business.

Seminars on Financial Literacy Stock Market


Place
Date
Time
Venue
Kandivali
02/07/16 5.30 pm Rukhi Bhavan, opp.
(Mumbai)
Vasant Complex, 90
Feet Link road, Mahavir
Nagar, Kandivli (W),
Mumbai-400067
GOREGAON 09/07/16 5 pm
Shagun Arcade,
(Mumbai)
Ground floor, near
Dindoshi Bus Depot,
Goregaon (E), Mumbai400063
PHALTAN
23/07/16 5 pm
Venue to be finalised
BANDRA
07/07/16 5.30 pm National Library, S V
(Mumbai)
Road, Bandra (W),
Mumbai-400050
Chandrashekhar Thakur: CDSL BO Protection Fund.
Tel: 9820389051 csthakur@cdslindia.com BSE
Building, 16th Floor, Dalal Street, Fort, Mumbai-400001

There were also signs of an improvement in overseas markets as


new foreign orders rose. However, it looks as if lacklustre global
demand remains a headwind for Indian manufacturers, she
added.
This lack of inflationary pressures provides the Reserve Bank of
India (RBI) with further leeway to boost economic growth through
cutting its benchmark rate, said De Lima.
Rains are expected to be above average this year which could keep prices in control and give the government room to
focus on key economic reforms in tandem with low interest rates.
Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), Arvind Subramanian said, Indias current account deficit (CAD) may dip below 1% this
fiscal year owing to low global crude prices while Brexit from the European Union is likely to impact the economy as
global economy will slow down.
Mr. Subramanian said that though the price of gold is surging, it may not have an impact on the overall CAD as yellow
metal imports constitute less than half of the oil import bill, resulting in a net positive effect. So if oil prices go down,
gold goes up by a similar amount.
On bad debts, Mr. Subramanian said, in China, the amount of loans that the banks have lent to firms or corporates is
165% of GDP whereas in India, it is only 35%. RBI and the Government of India is working together to make sure that
this does not affect the economy.
Monsoon is spreading reasonably well. In July, we expect really good rains. Thats when all the planting happens. On the
whole, hoping for good agricultural karif production with the monsoon, Mr. Subramanian added.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday, 30 June 2016, said that during the week ended 29 June 2015,
southwest monsoon further advanced in many parts of the country. During the week, rainfall was above normal by 1%
over the country as a whole. Indias CAD narrowed sharply to $0.3 billion (0.1% of GDP) in Q4FY16, significantly lower
than $7.1 billion or 1.3% of GDP in Q3FY16 and marginally lower than $0.7 billion or 0.1% of GDP in Q4FY15. The
contraction in CAD was primarily on account of a lower trade deficit of $24.8 billion than $31.6 billion in Q4FY15 and
$34 billion in Q3FY15.
Indias merchandise exports fell 0.79% at $22.17 billion in May 2016 over May 2015 while imports fell 13.16% at $28.44
billion over the same period.

A Time Communications Publication

13

Indias trade deficit dipped to $6.27 billion in May 2016 from $10.41 billion in May 2015. Non-petroleum exports were
up 1.01% at $20.19 billion in May 2016 over May 2015. Oil imports fell 30.45% at $5.93 billion. Non-oil imports fell
7.06% at $22.50 billion.
The Union Cabinet on Wednesday, 29 June 2016, approved the implementation of the recommendations of Seventh
Central Pay Commission (CPC) on pay and pensionary benefits.
Key index ended flat on Monday, 27 June 2016, on modest buying. The Sensex was up 5.25 points (+0.02%) to close at
26402.96.
Key index ended higher on Tuesday, 28 June 2016, on local cues. The Sensex gained 121.59 points (+0.46%) to close at
26524.55.
Key index gained on Wednesday, 29 June 2016, on extended buying by traders. The Sensex surged 215.84 points
(+0.81%) to close at 26740.39.
Key index settled above on Thursday, 30 June 2016, on buying of equities. The Sensex advanced 259.33 points (+0.97%)
to close at 26999.72.
Key index moved higher on Friday, 1 July 2016, on arrival of good monsoon. The Sensex was up 145.19 points (+0.54%)
to close at 27144.91.
For future events, national and global macro-economic figures and June-September 2016 monsoon will play a crucial
role for Indias economy and Brexits extended impact over global financial markets in the near future will surely dictate
global market movements and influence the investor sentiment.
The Indian stock market will remain closed on Wednesday, 6 July 2016, on account of Ramzan-Id.
The US financial markets will remain closed on Monday, 4 July 2016, on account of Independence Day.

STOCK BUZZ
By Subramanian Mahadevan

Unichem Laboratories Ltd: Cost-effective generics!


(BSE Code: 506690) (CMP: Rs.284) (FV: Rs.2)
Incorporated in 1944, Mumbai-based Unichem Laboratories Ltd (Unichem) is the oldest and one of the largest
integrated pharmaceutical companies with six manufacturing plants. It generates 57% of its consolidated revenues from
the domestic formulations market while the balance 43% is generated from global operations. Unichem has created a
niche for itself through quality and cost-effective generics with reliable and efficient customer service. As North America
contributes 65% of its overseas business followed by Europe and Latin America, Unichem has a growing list of USFDA
approved products and a strong product pipeline to support its growth plans in USA and Canada. The Company has also
planned capex of around Rs.200 core most of which will be deployed in the upcoming API plant in Kolhapur,
Maharashtra. Unichem is an excellent Buy for multi-bagger returns in the long term considering its seven decades
experience and expertise, visionary management, leadership position in therapeutic segment, great brands (top 10
brands contribute 47% of its domestic revenue), debt-free status, uninterrupted dividend history, good book value
(Rs.113.05) and EPS (Rs.11.07).
******

Kalyani Steels Ltd: High stability!


(BSE Code: 500235) (CMP: Rs.188.60) (FV: Rs.5)
Incorporated in 1973, Pune-based Kalyani Steels Ltd (KSL) is a part of the renowned Kalyani Group. Through the blast
furnace route, it manufactures forging and engineering quality carbon and alloy steels while focusing on quality and a
strong R&D backup. With four decades of experience in alloy steels, KSL has become a preferred supplier for leading
national and international OEMs in the space of Automotive, Engineering, Energy, Aluminum Smelting and Defence,
among others. Its products find application in various industry segments like Automotive Forgings (crankshaft,
camshaft, connecting rods, gears, transmission shafts, axle beams, steering knuckles), Construction Equipment, Bearing,
Seamless Tubes and Aluminum Smelting. Through its group company - Bharat Forge Ltd, KSL manufactures 600+
different steel grades and specialized steel for critical components engine, transmission, bearing and boilers. The
Company has a bright future with great growth plans and a good book value (Rs.135) with negligible debt on its books.
Buy on every dip for good returns.

A Time Communications Publication

14

*******

SML ISUZU Ltd: Uncreative products!


(BSE Code: 505192) (CMP: Rs.1145.90) (FV: Rs.10)
Chandigarh-based SML Isuzu Ltd (SMLI) was incorporated as Swaraj Vehicles Ltd (SVL) in 1983 as tri-partite joint
venture and technical assistance agreement between Punjab Tractors Ltd, Mazda Motor Corporation and Sumitomo
Corporation Ltd and was rechristened as Swaraj Mazda Ltd (SML). The Company commenced commercial operations in
1986 with Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) and Trucks. SMLI became financially sick in 1994 and revived in three years
through the rehabilitation scheme and finally after various corporate initiatives and actions in the last two decades
between Indian and foreign owners, today Sumitomo of Japan controls 53.52% stake in SMLI followed by Isuzu Motors
(15%). SMLI offers a wide range of products from trucks and buses to special vehicles including Ambulances, Water
Tankers, Tippers, Delivery Vans, Fire Tenders, Prison Vans and Refrigerator Vans among others. Long-term prospects of
the Indian commercial vehicles industry and key government initiatives like emission norms and regulations on
scrapping older vehicles augurs well for the Company. Although SMLI is consistently posting profits and has a good track
record of dividends and corporate governance, it lacks innovative products for the Indian market despite being backed
by global giant Isuzu. It continues to sell around 1,100 vehicles per month since 2007. SMLI has already become a fivebagger in the last two years and I believe it is time to book profits unless any positive corporate action comes up.
*******

Bajaj Finance Ltd: Enduring legacy!


(BSE Code: 500034) (CMP: Rs.8154.70) (FV: Rs.10)
Pune-based Bajaj Finance Ltd (BFL) is a listed entity of the renowned Bajaj Auto group, a pioneer in Consumer, SME,
Commercial, Rural and Housing finance with significant market share in the Indian NBFC space. Post 2008 global crisis,
BFL is the only company in the Indian equity market which has given over 100x returns to investors and it continues to
pursue its aggressive journey ahead since India is an underpenetrated market offering enormous opportunity. BFLs key
strategy is to focus on cross-selling, customer experience and product and process innovations to create a differentiated
and profitable business model. For FY16, BFL posted PAT of Rs.1279 crore (EPS Rs.242) as against PAT of Rs.898 crore
(EPS Rs.180) in FY15. Its net NPA remained at 0.28%. BFLs strong foothold in consumer finance besides a diversified
product suite, cross-sell expertise, efficient risk management and healthy return ratios reinforces confidence even in a
challenging environment. However, we believe that most of these positives have already been factored in and an upside
from hereon stands capped as it trades above 4x its P/BV. Book profits and re-enter at lower levels.

EXPERT EYE
By Vihari

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd: Sure shot proposition


(BSE Code: 500110) (CMP: Rs.198.45) (FV: Rs.10)
Most brokerages are bullish on Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd (CPCL) and have come out with a Buy
recommendation with a substantial upside potential.
CPCL is a subsidiary of Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) with IOC holding 51.89% stake. Chennai Petro is the largest refinery
in South India with a total installed capacity of 11.5 MMTPA. It has two refineries in Tamil Nadu a 10.5 MMTPA Manali
Refinery at Chennai and 1 MMTPA Cauvery Basin Refinery near Nagapattinam.
CPCL products include LPG, Motor spirit (MS 150 ppm sulphurnonmetro), Motor spirit (MS 50 ppm sulphurmetro),
Superior kerosene oil (SKO), High speed diesel (HSD 350 ppm sulphurnonmetro), High speed diesel (HSD 150 ppm
sulphur, metro), Aviation turbine fuel (ATF), Furnace oil, LSHS, Light diesel oil (LDO).
Speciality products include Naphtha (nonfertiliser), Bitumen VG 10, Bitumen VG 30, Extractslight, Extractsheavy, LVI
Spindle, Lube base oil SN 400, Lube base oil SN 150, Lube base oil SN 850, Lube base oil SN 500. CPCL products are used
by many industries like fertilizers, power, and petrochemicals besides catering to oil marketing companies (OMCs),
roadways, railways and airlines requirement of transportation fuel and cooking fuel.
Its Wax plant has an installed capacity of 30,000 TPA, which is designed to produce paraffin wax for the manufacture of
candle wax, waterproof formulations and match wax. A Propylene plant was commissioned in 1988 with an initial
capacity of 17,000 TPA to supply petrochemical feedstock to neighbouring downstream industries. In 2004, the unit was
A Time Communications Publication

15

revamped to enhance the propylene production capacity to 30,000 TPA. The Company also supplies LABFS to a
downstream unit to manufacture Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB).
For FY16, the Company posted consolidated net profit of Rs.790 crore on 37.6% lower sales of Rs.26284 crore as against
a net loss of Rs.33.3 crore in FY15 and a dividend of 40% was paid. During Q4FY16, its net profit fell 27.1% to Rs.265.6
crore on 33.4% lower sales of Rs.5869.7 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.16.5. CPCL posted gross refinery margin (GRM) of
US$ 5.27/bbl as against $1.97 in FY15. FY16 crude throughput was 9.644 MMTPA as against 10.624 MMTPA in FY15.
During FY16, the Company incurred capex of Rs.1272 crore the highest in the last decade.
With an equity capital of Rs.149 crore and reserves of Rs.2254 crore, its share book value works out to Rs.161. The value
of its gross block including capital work-in-progress (WIP) was Rs.9887 crore. Debts of Rs.4286 crore give it a high DER
of 1.8:1 due to the ongoing capex.
Naftiran Intertrade is a Swiss subsidiary of National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and holds 15.4% in its equity capital.
NIOC is a key contractor to Iran's Energy Sector. IOCL holds 51.9% in CPCLs equity. FIIs hold 8.1%, DIs hold 12.4% and
with PCBs holding 2.4% leaves 9.8% with the investing public.
CPCL has decided to replace its 30inch old crude oil pipeline between Chennai port and its Manali refinery. To improve
operations, CPCL is setting up a new 42inch crude oil pipeline that will be bigger, better and safer with thickness of 12.5
mm.
Its Rs.257 crore project is likely to be completed by March 2017. Its Rs.3110 crore residue upgradation project will be
mechanically completed by November 2016 and will increase distillate yield by 6-7%. This project will boost CPCLs
gross refining margin (GRM) of US$ 1.52/bbl. Its mounded bullet storage projects of Rs.280 crore will also be completed
by March 2017.
These projects are expected to be completed in the next couple of years and add to CPCLs distillate yield and reduce its
demurrage cost resulting in margin increase. CPCL is also preparing a feasibility report for a proposed 9 MMTPA
brownfield refinery at an undisclosed sum.
To comply with the central governments BS-IV quality fuel policy, CPCL will commission a new 1.8 million tonnes Diesel
Hyro De-Sulphurisation (DHDS) plant by March 2017. This would enable the Company to produce diesel with less than
10 ppm (parts per million) of sulphur, which would be a cleaner fuel. This plant is likely to commissioned by September
2019.
CPCL has stated that the Nelson complexity index of the Manali refinery would rise from 7.98 to 9.24 on setting up this
project, which will be one of the highest amongst Indian refineries and will enable it to earn higher GRM.
CPCL has initiated efforts to control its working capital requirement by reducing its receivable days and inventory days.
Further, with crude oil prices rising again, the Company is expected to receive inventory gain, which will improve its
Q1FY17 results significantly.
CPCLs improvement in complexity, better GRM and lower crude oil prices would lead to better visibility of profitability.
On completing the projects, operational efficiencies will kick in that will boost refining margins to US$ 4.5/bbl and US$
5.5/bbl in FY17E and FY18E respectively.
Based on the current going, CPCL is all set to post an EPS of Rs.65 in FY17. At the CMP of Rs.198.45, the CPCL share
trades at a forward P/E of just 3x. A reasonable P/E of 4.5x will take its share price to Rs.292 thereby offering over 50%
returns. Its 52-week high/low is Rs.264.70/138.

TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel

Shivalik Bimetal Controls Ltd


(BSE Code: 513097) (CMP: Rs.24.95) (FV: Rs.2)
Incorporated in 1984, New Delhi based Shivalik Bimetal Controls Ltd is engaged in the process and product engineering
business. It manufactures and sells thermostatic bimetal/trimetal strips, components and other clad materials, EB
welded products, cold bonded clad strips and parts as well as shunt resistors, reflow solder/presoldered strips,
precision stainless steel parts and components, thermostatic bimetal coils and springs and snap action discs. Its
products are primarily used in switchgears, circuit breakers and various other electrical and electronic devices. It serves
electronics, automotive, domestic appliances, industrial, medical, defence and agriculture and animal husbandry
appliances sectors. It also exports to approximately 40 countries.

A Time Communications Publication

16

With an equity capital of Rs.3.84 crore and reserves of Rs.61.15 crore [15.92 times its equity], its share book value works
out to Rs.23.89 and price:book value ratio is just 1
which is quite attractive. The promoters hold
REVIEW
61.88% of the equity capital which leaves 38.12%
B & A recommended at Rs.172.35 last week zoomed to Rs.195,
stake with the investing public.
recording 13% appreciation in just one week.

A Time Communications Publication

On 20 June 2016, we recommended Coral Laboratories at


Rs.445.7. Thereafter, it zoomed to Rs.568.5 recording 28%
appreciation in just two weeks.

On 13 June 2016, we recommended Gandhi Special Tubes at


Rs.239.4. Thereafter, it zoomed to Rs.271.9 recording 14%
appreciation in just three weeks.

On 6 June 2016, we recommended Shreyans Industries at


Rs.45.9 and Suryalata Spinning Mills at Rs.121.5. Both
recorded 25% and 9% appreciation respectively in less than
one month.

On 30 May 2016, we recommended Kushal Tradelink at


Rs.146.75. Thereafter, it zoomed to Rs.154 recording 5%
appreciation in just one month.

On 9 May 2016, we recommended IOL Chemicals &


Pharmaceuticals at Rs.109.25. Thereafter, it zoomed to
Rs.145.5 recording 34% appreciation in less than two months.

17

For FY16, the Company reported sales of Rs.98.85 crore as against Financial Performance:
(Rs. in crore)
Rs.95.22 core in FY15 with net profit of Rs.4.11 crore as against Rs.4.94
Particulars
Q4FY16
Q4FY15
FY16
crore in FY15 fetching an EPS of Rs.2.14. Its net profit declined mainly on
Sales
25.44
24.45
98.85
account of higher interest cost but the Company has been trying to cut its
PBT
2.22
1.99
6.5
debt. Hence, it may report strong numbers in FY17 since its products are
Tax
1.08
1.12
2.39
used in the defence sector which has a huge demand.
PAT
1.14
0.86
4.11
The Shivalik Bimetal Controls stock currently trades at a P/E of just 11.4x
EPS
(Rs.)
0.59
0.45
2.14
and looks very attractive at the current level. One can buy this stock with a
stop loss of Rs.19. On the upper side, this Rs.2 paid-up share could zoom to Rs.32 in the medium-term and further up to
Rs.45 in the long-term.

A Time Communications Publication

18

Roongtas Panchratna 10th Edition


nd

Releasing on 2 July 2016


Containing five low priced Steel/Sugar/Textile stocks that could prove to be Dark horses or Multibaggers
Panchratna has proved to be Great & Grand Success with each successive issue
Look ahead to a frenzy year unfolding here onwards. With Modi Govt. reviving sick sectors to start with fertilizer
sugar, steel and now textile are set to boom
th

Panchratna 10 edition focuses on each of these sectors and designed for handsome returns
Take a look at the past performance of a Panchratna edition and satisfy yourself fully about our selection:
Sr.
No.
1

Date
April 2014

July 2014

October 2014

January 2015

April 2015

July 2015

October 2015

January 2016

April 2016

Scrip Name
Chestlind Textile Ltd.
Katare Spinning Mills Ltd.
Trident Ltd.
Elecon Engineering Ltd.
Essar Ports Ltd.
Hind Syntex Ltd.
Surya Amba Spinning Mills Ltd.
Standard Industries Ltd.
Sarda Plywood & Industries Ltd.
Dish TV India Ltd.
Ashok Leyland Ltd.
Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd.
National Steel & Agro Ltd.
Landmark Properties & Developers Co Ltd.
PVP Ventures Ltd.
Mukund Engineers Ltd.
KEC International Ltd.
Modern Steels Ltd.
Suzlon Energy Ltd.
Jai Prakash Associates Ltd.
ABC India Ltd.
Steel Authority of India Ltd.
Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd.
Shipping Corporation of India Ltd.
Tinplate Company of India Ltd.
Jindal Saw Ltd.
Reliance Power Ltd.
Unitech Ltd.
Punj Lloyd Ltd.
Sathavahana Ispat Ltd.
JK Paper Ltd.
Tanla Solutions Ltd.
DCW Ltd.
STEL Holdings Ltd.
Shri Dinesh Mills Ltd.
Stock A (Tea & Coffee)
Stock B (Construction Materials)
Stock C (Paper & Paper Products)
Stock D (Plastic Products)
Stock E (Paper & Paper Products)
Stock A (Other Apparels & Accessories)
Stock B (Plastic Products)
Stock C (Specialty Chemicals)
Stock D (Containers & Packaging)
Stock E (Containers & Packaging)

Recom.
Rate (Rs.)
4.98
19.50
18.80
36.75
50.90
14.01
31.20
20
18.85
62.95
41.10
61.45
20.30
5.24
8.32
35.50
94.30
9.95
14.70
25.10
88.05
68.35
56.30
46.15
54.30
61.05
45.35
8.15
24.75
35.40
41.90
24.75
20.30
27
90.20
6.31
61.30
21.10
33.20
56.75
83
79.35
3.80
40
128.60

High
Achieved (Rs.)
12.10
31.80
62
97
150.41
26.90
52.85
30.65
75
121.85
113
82.90
17.70
5.34
7.84
40.50
164.75
10.45
31.35
27.25
148.30
78.95
71.80
100.90
78.10
85.40
61.40
8.21
35.80
74
60
52.60
32.10
40.45
144
7.95
68.50
21.80
39.60
71
135
96
8
60
158

% Gain
143.0%
63.1%
229.8%
163.9%
195.5%
100%
69.4%
53.3%
297.9%
93.6%
175%
34.9%
-12.8%
1.9%
-5.8%
14.1%
74.7%
5.0%
113.3%
8.6%
68.4%
15.5%
27.5%
118.6%
43.8%
39.9%
35.4%
0.7%
44.6%
175%
50%
112.5%
58.1%
49.8%
59.6%
26.0%
11.7%
3.3%
19.3%
25.1%
50%
20%
110%
50%
25%

Subscription Rate: Rs.2500 per quarter, Rs.4000 for two quarters & Rs.7000 per annum. You can contact us on
022-22616970, 22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com Book your copy now. First come first served
A Time Communications Publication

19

What TF+ subscribers say:


Think InvestmentThink TECHNO FUNDA PLUS
Techno Funda Plus is a superior version of the Techno Funda column that has recorded near 90% success since launch.
We at Techno Funda Plus identify fundamentally sound & technically strong stocks which give handsome returns against their peers. We give 3 stocks per
week for short-to-medium-term investment. We are pleased to announce that most of our stocks have given handsome returns to our subscribers.
Just look, we had recommended 63 stocks from January 2016 to May 2016 (21 weeks). Out of 63 stocks, we booked profit in 40 stocks. Nine stocks clicked our
stop loss level. Still 14 stocks are open. Out of 14 stocks, 11 stocks are trading in the GREEN and 3 stocks are trading nominally in the red.

Stocks
Tyche Industries
Rama Phosphates
DCM Shriram
Swiss Glasscoat Equipments
Amarjothi Spinning Mills
Tinplate Company of India
Tata Elxsi
Ador Fontech
Sarla Performance Fibers
GHCL
Eicher Motors
Torrent Pharmaceuticals
Balaji Amines
Tera Software
Banswara Syntex
AMD Industries
Torrent Power
Meghmani Organics
Elecon Engineering Company
Man Industries (India)
Finolex Industries
Bharat Bijlee
Sunil Hitech Engineers
SKS Microfinance
Gujarat Ambuja Exports
Shriram Transport Finance Company
Shilp Gravures
Bajaj Auto
SRF
Indiabulls Housing Finance
Pondy Oxides Chemicals
Makers Laboratories
India Gelatine Chemicals
Ashapura Minechem
Cox & Kings
Panama Petrochem
Sakuma Exports
Kalyani Steels
TV Today Network
Kanpur Plastipack
Brigade Enterprises
Linc Pen Plastics
RSWM
Jayant Agro-Organics
Indiabulls Housing Finance
Daikaffil Chemicals India
JSW Energy
Jasch Industries
Banco Product

Recomm.
Date
11-01-16
11-01-16
11-01-16
18-01-16
18-01-16
25-01-16
25-01-16
01-02-16
01-02-16
01-02-16
08-02-16
08-02-16
08-02-16
15-02-16
15-02-16
22-02-16
22-02-16
29-02-16
29-02-16
07-03-16
07-03-16
14-03-16
14-03-16
04-04-16
04-04-16
11-04-16
11-04-16
18-04-16
18-04-16
18-04-16
02-05-16
25-04-16
25-04-16
04-04-16
21-03-16
15-02-16
22-02-16
07-03-16
29-03-16
02-05-16
23-05-16
30-05-16
16-05-16
16-05-16
30-05-16
09-05-16
21-05-16
18-01-16
30-05-16

Recomm.
Price
51
41
137
107
78
62
1750
94
57
109
18050
1335
141
67
90
25
223
19.5
45
57
340
745
208
545
41.5
943
65.5
2535
1340
625
95
65
75
75
177.5
55.5
55.5
152
305
132
151
206
365
180
723.5
32
67.5
46
135

Profit Booked
Price
66
53
175
134
92
75
2000
91
70
137
20100
1480
180
90
111
33
250
26
60
75
390
840
240
585
52
1000
76
2450
1295
700
120
66
70
74
150
57
73
190
287
165
185
240
425
225
675
39
85
39
160

% in
Appreciation
29.41%
29.27%
27.74%
25.23%
17.95%
20.97%
14.29%
-3.19%
22.81%
25.69%
11.36%
10.86%
27.66%
34.33%
23.33%
32%
12.11%
33.33%
33.33%
31.58%
14.71%
12.75%
15.38%
7.34%
25.30%
6.04%
16.03%
-3.35%
-3.36%
12%
26.32%
1.54%
-6.67%
-1.33%
-15.49%
2.70%
31.53%
25%
-5.90%
25.%
22.52%
16.50%
16.44%
25%
-6.70%
21.88%
25.93%
-15.22%
18.52%

In our last advertisement published in mid February 2016, we had clearly & confidentially stated Market is highly negative at the current level. Many experts
compare this fall with 2008 fall. But remember in 2008 sharp rally was seen from lower level. This time also, the market has shown lower level but we strongly
believe that the market will become steady after the Budget & uptrend will start from April 2016. See what happened, from 6825, NIFTY is now trading at
8300 level. We strongly believe that NIFTY will try and kiss 9100 level by March 2017. Take advantage of this rally and subscribe to TECHNO FUNDA PLUS
today

A Time Communications Publication

20

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Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to
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A Time Communications Publication

21

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