4.

10
Year

Demand

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

4
6
4
5
10
8
7
9
12
14
15

3-year MA

4.67
5.00
6.33
7.67
8.33
8.00
9.33
11.67
13.67

Weighted
3-year MA
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00

4.50
5.00
7.25
7.75
8.00
8.25
10.00
12.25
14.00

Demand
3-year MA

Weighted 3-y
MA

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

The weighted moving average appears to be (slightly) better

4.11 (a)
Year

Demand

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

4
6
4
5
10
8
7
9
12
14
15

Exp. Sm.
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

5.00
4.70
5.09
4.76
4.83
6.38
6.87
6.91
7.54
8.87
10.41
11.79

Dem

Exp.

9 10 11 12 13

4.11 (b)
Year

Demand

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

4
6
4
5
10
8
7
9

3-year MA

4.67
5.00
6.33
7.67
8.33

Abs. Err. 1

0.33
5.00
1.67
0.67
0.67

Weighted
3-year MA

4.50
5.00
7.25
7.75
8.00

Abs. Err. 2

0.50
5.00
0.75
0.75
1.00

Exp. Sm.
5.00
4.70
5.09
4.76
4.83
6.38
6.87
6.91

Abs. Err. 3
1
1.30
1.09
0.24
5.17
1.62
0.13
2.09

9
10
11
12
MAD =

12
14
15

8.00
9.33
11.67
13.67

4.00
4.67
3.33

2.54

The weighted moving average has the lowest MAD

8.25
10.00
12.25
14.00

3.75
4.00
2.75

2.31

7.54
8.87
10.41
11.79

4.46
5.13
4.59

2.44

Demand
3-year MA
Weighted 3-year
MA

8 9 10 11 12

Demand
Exp. Sm.

9 10 11 12 13

4.13

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6

= .6
= .9
Exp. Sm. 1 Exp. Sm. 2
41.00
41.00
43.40
44.60
47.36
49.46
50.14
51.75
53.66
55.57
56.26
57.76

Demand
45
50
52
56
58

3-year MA Regression
45.80
49.00
52.20
49.00
55.40
52.67
58.60
55.33
61.80

SUMMARY OUTPUT

70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
1

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9884833
R Square 0.97709924
Adjusted R 0.96946565
Standard E 0.89442719
Observatio
5

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable

1
3
4

SS
102.4
2.4
104.8

MS
102.4
0.8

Significance F
128 0.00148107

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat

P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
42.6 0.93808315 45.4117526 2.351E-005 39.6145979 45.5854021 39.6145979
3.2 0.28284271 11.3137085 0.00148107 2.29986741 4.10013259 2.29986741

4.13 (d)

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6

Demand
45
50
52
56
58

= .6
= .9
Exp. Sm. 1 Abs. Err. 1 Exp. Sm. 2 Abs. Err. 2
41.00
4.00
41.00
4.00
43.40
6.60
44.60
5.40
47.36
4.64
49.46
2.54
50.14
5.86
51.75
4.25
53.66
4.34
55.57
2.43
56.26
57.76

MAD =
Regression has the lowest MAD

5.088

3.72

3-year MA

Abs. Err. 3

49.00
52.67
55.33

7.00
5.33

6.17

Demand
Exp. Sm. 1
Exp. Sm. 2
3-year MA
Regression

Upper 95.0%
45.5854021
4.10013259

Regression Abs. Err. 4

45.80
0.80
49.00
1.00
52.20
0.20
55.40
0.60
58.60
0.60
61.80
0.64

4.19
Month
February
March
April
May
June
July
August

Income
70.00
68.50
64.80
71.70
71.30
72.80

Ft
65.00
65.50
65.89
65.92
66.62
67.31
68.16

Tt
0.00
0.10
0.16
0.13
0.25
0.33
0.44

FITt
65.00
65.60
66.05
66.06
66.87
67.64
68.60

4.27
Season
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring

Year
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014

Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22

Boats
1400
1500
1000
600
1200
1400
2100
750
1000
1600
2000
650
900
1500
1900
500

MA

CMA

Boats/CMA

1125
1075
1050
1325
1362.5
1312.5
1362.5
1337.5
1312.5
1287.5
1262.5
1237.5
1200

1100
1062.5
1187.5
1343.75
1337.5
1337.5
1350
1325
1300
1275
1250
1218.75

0.90909091
0.56470588
1.01052632
1.04186047
1.57009346
0.56074766
0.74074074
1.20754717
1.53846154
0.50980392
0.72
1.23076923

SI
0.82
1.16
1.34
0.55
0.82
1.16
1.34
0.55
0.82
1.16
1.34
0.55
0.82
1.16
1.34
0.55

Boats
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

Boats

1800.00
1600.00
1400.00
1200.00
1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00

2000
1500

Boats

1000
500
0

Customers
84
82
78
95
130
144
42
82
71
89
94
144
135
48
93
77
83
103
135
140
37
80
67
98
96
125
136
40

MAD =

Forecast
85.54
72.23
91.22
98.16
136.97
141.44
42.30
84.76
71.57
90.39
97.26
135.71
140.14
41.91
83.97
70.90
89.55
96.36
134.45
138.84
41.51
83.19
70.24
88.71
95.45
133.19
137.53
41.12
82.41
69.58
87.87
94.55
131.93
136.23
40.73

Abs. Err.
1.54
9.77
13.22
3.16
6.97
2.56
0.30
2.76
0.57
1.39
3.26
8.29
5.14
6.09
9.03
6.10
6.55
6.64
0.55
1.16
4.51
3.19
3.24
9.29
0.55
8.19
1.53
1.12

4.52

160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

1400.00
1200.00
1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00

Adj SI
0.85
1.20
1.38
0.56
0.85
1.20
1.38
0.56
0.85
1.20
1.38
0.56
0.85
1.20
1.38
0.56
0.85
1.20
1.38
0.56
0.85
1.20

Des. Boats
1643.50
1250.40
722.09
1064.45
1408.71
1167.04
1516.38
1330.56
1173.93
1333.77
1444.17
1153.16
1056.53
1250.40
1371.96
887.04

Trend
1292.51
1284.96
1277.41
1269.86
1262.31
1254.76
1247.21
1239.66
1232.11
1224.56
1217.01
1209.46
1201.91
1194.36
1186.81
1179.26
1171.71
1164.16
1156.61
1149.06
1141.51
1133.96

Forecast
1101.01
1541.45
1769.05
715.78
1075.29
1505.22
1727.23
698.76
1049.56
1468.99
1685.40
681.74
1023.83
1432.76
1643.58
664.71
998
1397
1602
648
972
1360

Des. Boats
1800.00
1600.00
1400.00
1200.00
1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00

Des. Boats

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.153905819
R Square
0.0236870011
Adjusted R Square
-0.046049642
Standard Error
238.87232601
Observations
16
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

1
14
15
Coefficients
1300.05736
-7.550068683

1400.00
1200.00
1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00

Des. Boats

Customers
Forecast

SS
MS
F
Significance F
19381.2026195 19381.2 0.339664 0.569292
798839.833862 57059.99
818221.036482
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
125.265704551 10.3784 5.9E-008 1031.389 1568.726 1031.389 1568.726
12.9546707603 -0.582807 0.569292 -35.33507 20.23494 -35.33507 20.23494

4.28
Quarter
Winter 11
Spring 11
Summer 11
Fall 11
Winter 12
Spring 12
Summer 12
Fall 12
Winter 13
Spring 13
Summer 13
Fall 13

Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Guests
73
104
168
74
65
82
124
52
89
146
205
98

MA

CMA

Guests/CMA

104.75
102.75
97.25
86.25
80.75
86.75
102.75
123.00
134.50

103.75
100.00
91.75
83.50
83.75
94.75
112.88
128.75

1.62
0.74
0.71
0.98
1.48
0.55
0.79
1.13

SI
0.75
1.06
1.55
0.64
0.75
1.06
1.55
0.64
0.75
1.06
1.55
0.64

Adj SI
0.75
1.06
1.55
0.64
0.75
1.06
1.55
0.64
0.75
1.06
1.55
0.64

Guests

Des. Gue

250

200.00

200

150.00

150

Guests

100

100.00
50.00

50
0

0.00
1

Guests
73
104
168
74
65
82
124
52
89
146
205
98

Forecast
64.09
94.73
144.82
62.73
75.78
111.26
169.05
72.80
87.48
127.79
193.27
82.87

10

11

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

250
200
150

Guests
Forecast

100
50
0
1

9 10 11 12

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Des. Guests
97.55
98.32
108.41
114.86
86.86
77.52
80.02
80.71
118.93
138.02
132.29
152.11

Trend
85.64
89.55
93.46
97.37
101.27
105.18
109.09
113.00
116.90
120.81
124.72
128.63

Forecast
64.09
94.73
144.82
62.73
75.78
111.26
169.05
72.80
87.48
127.79
193.27
82.87

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.570823
R Square
0.325839
Adjusted R Square
0.258423
Standard Error
21.25473
Observations
12
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
Des. Guests

0.00

0.00
Des. Guests

0.00

0.00

0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

SS
MS
1 2183.485 2183.485
10 4517.637 451.7637
11 6701.122

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
81.73511 13.08138
6.2482
3.907573 1.77741 2.198464

F
Significance F
4.833245 0.052578

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
9.5E-005 52.58797 110.8822 52.58797 110.8822
0.052578 -0.052744 7.867889 -0.052744 7.867889

Price

Letx1, x2 , K , x6 bethepricesandy1,y2 , K ,y6

bethenumbersold.
6

xi

i 1
6

Y
6

yi

i 1

Averageprice=3.2583

(1)

Averagenumbersold=550

(2)

xi yi 9,783

(3)

2
xi =67.1925

(4)

i 1
6
i1

$2.70
$3.50
$2.00
$4.20
$3.10
$4.05

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Theny=a+bx,wherey=numbersold,x=price,and

xi yi nx y

i 1
6

2
2
x i nx

(9, 783) 6(3.25833)(550)

67.1925 6(3.25833)2

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

i 1

969.489
277.6
3.49222
a y bx 1, 454.6

ANOVA
Regression
Residual
Total

Soatx=2.80,y=1,454.6277.6($2.80)=677.32.Nowroundtothenearest
integer:Answer:677lattes.

Intercept
X Variable 1

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6

Number
Sold

Residuals

760
510
980
250
320
480

X Variable 1 Residual Plot

200
100

0
$1.50
$2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50
-100
-200
-300

X Variable 1

egression Statistics
0.843392918
0.711311615
0.639139518
165.2571368
6

df

SS
MS
1 269160.3 269160.3
4 109239.7 27309.92
5
378400

F
Significance F
9.85577 0.034868

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
1454.604462 295.9393 4.915212 0.007957 632.9451 2276.264 632.9451 2276.26379
-277.627968 88.43373 -3.13939 0.034868 -523.1594 -32.09658 -523.1594 -32.096582

Predicted Y
705.0089488
482.9065744
899.3485264
288.5669968
593.9577616
330.211192

Residuals
54.99105
27.09343
80.65147
-38.567
-273.9578
149.7888

ual Plot

00 $4.50

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6

Transistors Forecast
Error
Error^2 % Error
140
144
-4
16
2.86%
160
162
-2
4
1.25%
190
180
10
100
5.26%
200
198
2
4
1.00%
210
216
-6
36
2.86%
234 Sum
160
13.23%

MSE =
MAPE =

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.97618706
R Square
0.952941176
Adjusted R Square
0.937254902
Standard Error
7.302967433
Observations
5

a) the number of transitors to be made next year is 234

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

1
3
4

SS
MS
3240
3240
160 53.33333
3400

F
Significance F
60.75 0.004395

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
126.000 7.659417 16.45034 0.000489 101.6243 150.3757 101.6243
18.000 2.309401 7.794229 0.004395 10.65046 25.34954 10.65046

32 <-- b)
2.65% <-- c)

be made next year is 234

Upper 95.0%
150.3757
25.34954

4.42

Month
Jan
Feb
March
April
May
June
July
August
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec

Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29

There is not enough data to apply a multiplicative model

One possible solution is to add an increment to the demand of the same month this year

Last year
5
6
10
13
18
15
23
26
21
15
12
14

Demand
5
6
10
13
18
15
23
26
21
15
12
14
17
14
20
23
30
38
44
41
33
23
26
17

This year
17
14
20
23
30
38
44
41
33
23
26
17

Difference
12
8
10
10
12
23
21
15
12
8
14
3

Average:

12.33

Forecast

Abs. Err.

Forecast
Next year
29
26
32
35
42
50
56
53
45
35
38
29

50
40
30

La

Th

20
10
0
1

9 10 11 12

60
50
40
30
20
10
17
18
22
25
30
27
35
38
33
27
24
26
29
26
32
35
42

0
4
2
2
0
11
9
3
0
4
2
9

Demand
Forecast

30
31
32
33
34
35
36

50
56
53
45
35
38
29
MAD =

3.83

Last year
This year

9 10 11 12

Demand
Forecast