Reaching Them Where They Are: Millennials and Their Changing Political Consumption Patterns A Battleground Poll of Millennials

Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher
Reaching Them Where They Are:

Millennials and their changing political consumption
patterns
A Battleground Poll of Millennials
Presented by Cornell Belcher
Twitter @cornellbelcher
July 2016
Cornell Belcher
President of brilliant corners Research & Strategies

Harvard Institute of Politics Fellow
George Washington University National Council for Media and
Public Affairs Board Member
The Root 100 in 2011 & 2012
AAPC 2009 Polling team of year award winner
Former Political Contributor to CNN
DNC Pollster under Chairman Howard Dean
Obama 2008 and 2012 Campaign team Pollster
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Senior
Political Advisor 2002 cycle
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Special Projects
Director 2000 cycle
Emilys List Women VOTE! Coordinator 1998 cycle
Changing Face of the Electorate
Even if we dismantled every barrier to voting, that alone would not change the fact that
America has some of the lowest voting rates in the free world. In 2014, only 36 percent
of Americans turned out to vote in the midterms -- the second lowest participation rate
on record. Youth turnout -- that would be you -- was less than 20 percent.
Less than 20 percent. Four out of five did not vote.

In 2012, nearly two in three African Americans turned out. And then, in 2014, only two
in five turned out. You dont think that made a difference in terms of the Congress I've
got to deal with? And then people are wondering, well, how come Obama hasnt
gotten this done? How come he didnt get that done? You dont think that made a
difference? What would have happened if you had turned out at 50, 60, 70 percent, all
across this country? People try to make this political thing really complicated.
-Barack Obama, Howard University 2016
The Incoming Electorate Much younger

Voted before
18-29
New voters
30-44
2%
45-64
20%
65+
11%
29%
13%
23%
41%
Source: Edison Mitofsky Research, 2008 national exit poll
62%
The Incoming Electorate Much more diverse

Voted before
3%
Caucasian
New voters
AfricanAmerican
Hispanic
6%
12%
Other
7%
18%
55%
79%
20%
Source: Edison Mitofsky Research, 2008 national exit poll
The U.S. is experiencing rapid diversification

Percent of Total Population in America, 1950-2050
Majority
Minority
2050
47%
2040
51%
2030
26%
60%
2010
9%
13%
2000
13%
13%
13%
12%
11%
87%
10%
20%
30%
Caucasian
40%
6%
11%
85%
0%
3%
9%
12%
83%
1950
5%
13%
80%
1960
6%
16%
76%
1970
7%
19%
70%
1980
8%
23%
65%
1990
29%
14%
56%
2020
A political
tipping
point
13%
10%
50%
African-American
60%
70%
Hispanic
80%
Asian
Source: Center for American Progress. States of Change. February 2015
90%
5%
3%
3%
100%
What the Diversification Means Politically
Dramatic share differences for Youth vote

Youth voters make all the difference
2014 shares
2012 shares
50%
45%
56%
GOP
40%
35%
30%
60%
Dem
25%
20%
55%
Dem
56%
GOP
-6%
19%
16%
+6%
22%
13%
15%
10%
5%
0%
18-29
18-29
65+
9
*CNN exit polls
65+
Seniors
made up
almost twice
the electorate
as younger
voters = bad
for Dems
Reagans GOP coalition is no longer enough to win

nationally
Presidential Election Results Reagan vs.
Carter, 1980
56% - Caucasian
14% - African-American
37% - Hispanic
10
36% - Caucasian
56% - Hispanic
A New, Diverse Coalition Has Emerged as the

Majority Nationally
Presidential Election Results
Obama vs. Romney, 2012
Mitt Romney
59% - Caucasian
27% - Hispanic
Barack Obama
39% - Caucasian
71% - Hispanic
OHIO
41% - Caucasian
96% - AfricanAmerican
61% - Hispanic
VIRGINIA
37% - Caucasian
93% - AfricanAmerican
64% - Hispanic
Obama lost white vote but won the state

Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Michigan
Ohio
Florida
Pennsylvania
37% - Caucasian
Virginia
Florida
60% - Hispanic
11
Key Findings
Despite perceptions that young and minority voters are disengaged in 2016, our data reveals that
85% of likely millennial voters are following information about politics and the candidates closely,
higher than in 2012.
Television is no longer the dominant source of information for information about politics and
candidates running for office -- being mentioned less often than online news sites, and making up
less than a quarter of total responses
Not only is televisions dominance gone, but three
out of ten young and minority likely voters

said that have not watched live TV AT ALL other than sports in the last 7 days. And 38% said they
infrequently or never watch television to find out information about politics
Our battleground poll showed young and minority likely voters to be much more
consume political information on a mobile device rather than on their computer
Despite unprecedented interest in the elections our battleground poll showed one third of young
and minority likely voters to be undecided across the senate races in the 10 states we surveyed
12
likely to
Our battleground poll showed control of the senate might

very well be decided by
young and minority voters,

a third of whom are undecided. In the battleground states we
know that this groups is best reached through digital, that
they are mobile first, and that they are more likely to trust
sources online sources of information like Google and Online
news sites than they are traditional media.
In the battleground states we see a relatively high percentage
of persuadable voters among young and minority likely
voters. Combined with their overwhelming shift toward
mobile media consumption this creates a unique opportunity
for campaigns at all levels to shape opinion with the evolving
electorate.
Our Battleground Sample
14
Key Demographic Breakouts
African American
Hispanic
Minority: All non-white respondents
Swing voters: Respondents who are unsure of their Presidential vote

choice
Senate Undecided: Respondents who are undecided on down-ballot

races in their state
15
Millennials are consuming political information

differently
Political Information is Being Accessed on-the-go

Q: Generally
speaking, where
do you
consume the
most political
information
online? Is it on
the computer, or
on your mobile
device?
3%
20%
32%
44%
Computer
17
Mobile Device
Both
Neither
Dk/Ref
Total
Swing
Senate
Undecided
African
American
Hispanic
Minority
Computer
32%
36%
26%
28%
28%
31%
Mobile Device
44%
39%
47%
51%
45%
45%
Millennials are Relying Less on Their Television for Political

Information and More on Their Social Media Networks
Watch TV for Political Info
Access the Internet for Political Info
7%
21%
11%
14%
7%
20%
17%
18%
19%
21%
23%
20%
Frequently: 40%
Multiple times an hour
Once a day
A few times a month
Dk/Ref
18
Multiple times a day

A few times a week
Never
Frequently: 50%
Q: Currently, how
often do you
[watch television]
/ [access the
internet or social
media]
specifically to
find information
about politics (for
example to
research
something, learn
about
something)?
They are Turning Increasingly Online and to Social

Media Networks
Total
Online news sites
50%
TV
47%
Facebook
20%
Print newspapers or magazines
18%
Radio
17%
Family and Friends
12%
Google
11%
Blogs or other websites
9%
Other
2%
Dont know
0%
19
Majority going
online for
information
Q: Where do you
get most of your
information about
politics and
candidates
running for office
these days?
[Multiple
Responses
Permitted]
Television is no Longer the Dominant Source for

Political Information
Q: If you could
only have one
source for
information on
politics and
political
candidates to
make your voting
decisions this fall,
what would that
source be?
[Open-End
Responses]
20
They Trust Their Relationships and Sources who can

Deliver the News
TV ads
Political TV programs
Radio Ads
Political Radio Programs
Family and Friends
Total
Swing
Senate
Undecided
African
American
Hispanic
Minority
8%
9%
5%
9%
13%
11%
18%
14%
13%
24%
19%
21%
7%
7%
3%
8%
8%
8%
17%
15%
11%
19%
17%
17%
21%
16%
18%
23%
20%
20%
21%
16%
13%
22%
21%
22%
5%
7%
2%
6%
4%
7%
26%
22%
17%
29%
27%
27%
21%
20%
14%
29%
20%
26%
Print Newspaper or Magazines

Blogs
News Websites
Google
21
Q: How much
do you trust
each of the
following
sources for
political
information?
Please rate
each using a
scale of 0-10
This Election Year, Millennials are Paying

Attention but
Compared to 2012, More Millennials are Following

This Election Very Closely
11%
4%
27% very
closely in 2012
36%
48%
23
Very closely
Somewhat closely
Not at all closely
Dk/Ref
Not that closely
Total
Swing
Senate
Undecided
African
American
Hispanic
Minority
More closely
85%
81%
75%
86%
87%
86%
Less closely
15%
19%
24%
14%
13%
14%
Q: How closely
would you say
you have been
following news
and information
about politics and
candidates at this
point?
And More Millennials are Talking Often About the

Upcoming Election
17% every day
in 2012
Q: How often, if
ever, do you
discuss politics
with your family
or friends?
7%
21%
18%
23%
30%
Never
Once or twice a week
Every day
24
Once or twice a month

Three or four times a week
Dk/Ref
Total
Swing
Senate
Undecided
African
American
Hispanic
Minority
Infrequently
25%
29%
36%
27%
26%
26%
Often
53%
50%
49%
55%
54%
54%
Every day
21%
21%
14%
17%
20%
19%
Three Quarters of Millennials Have an Unfavorable

View of Donald Trump
Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
13%
24%
Donald Trump
11%
Democrats
7% 6%
14%
0%
12%
22%
45%
26%
18%
8%
41%
15%
40%
Warm
13%
32%
8%
14%
20%
Scorching
22%
6%
30%
32%
Republicans
25
12%
46%
Neutral
60%
Cool
16%
80%
Freezing
Name
ID
Mean
99%
56.9
99%
39.7
99%
22.9
98%
53.0
98%
37.0
100%
DK/Unfamiliar
Q: Please rate
your feelings
toward some
people,
organizations,
issues and
themes using a
scale of 0-100
However, They are Still Disinterested in the

Political Process
They are Spending Their Time Online and Learning

More, but Taking Less Action
Total
Swing
Senate Undecided
Minority
Learn about a candidate or political party
77%
74%
70%
75%
Share your opinion about current events
69%
69%
65%
70%
Learn about or sign a petition
67%
65%
58%
66%
Find information on the voting process
61%
60%
56%
61%
Follow public policy or community development process
59%
59%
49%
57%
Encourage others to vote and participate in politics
57%
57%
48%
60%
Track legislation
46%
43%
32%
42%
Share a video that demonstrates injustice
44%
43%
38%
46%
Contact leaders or elected officials
36%
38%
26%
35%
Track donations to candidates and political groups
28%
29%
21%
29%
Making donation to candidates and political groups
27%
27%
17%
25%
Organize or participate in a protest or demonstration
25%
25%
19%
30%
22%
21%
12%
23%
18%
21%
14%
27%
Signing up for volunteer shifts with candidates,

organizations, and political groups
Watch or share a video in Spanish from your mobile
device
27
Q: Have you
ever used the
internet, social
media, or new
technologies
for any of the
following?
Hillary Needs to Improve Her Performance With

Dem Base Groups
Obama won
60% of youth
vote in 2012
9%
11%
3%
45%
24%
7%
Hillary Clinton
Lean Clinton
Donald Trump
Lean Trump
Other
Dk/Ref
Total
28
Millennial
Senate
Swingwomen
Undecided
African
American
Hispanic
Minority
Hillary Clinton
52%
9%
49%
81%
57%
66%
Donald Trump
28%
7%
23%
6%
27%
15%
Other
20%
84%
27%
13%
16%
19%
Q: If the elections
for President
were being held
today, would you
vote for Donald
Trump or Hillary
Clinton for
President? Even
though you are
undecided, which
way do you lean?
Big Base Advantage, but Still a lot of

Persuadable Voters
Q: If the elections
for President
were being held
today, would you
vote for Donald
Trump or Hillary
Clinton for
President? Even
though you are
undecided, which
way do you lean?
26%
50%
24%
Base Clinton
29
Swing
Base Trump
Total
Swing
Senate
Undecided
African
American
Hispanic
Minority
Base Clinton
50%
0%
48%
79%
54%
63%
Swing
24%
100%
29%
17%
20%
23%
Base Trump
26%
0%
23%
4%
26%
14%
And a Plurality of Young Voters Are Undecided in

Battleground Senate Races
Q: If the elections
for US Senate
were being held
today, would you
vote for
[Democratic
Candidate] or
[Republican
Candidate]?
Even though you
wouldnt vote,
which way do
you lean?
33%
31%
36%
Senate Democrat
30
Senate Undecided
Senate Republican
Total
Swing
Senate
Undecided
African
American
Hispanic
Minority
Senate Democrats
33%
27%
0%
33%
29%
32%
Senate Republicans
31%
30%
0%
23%
34%
29%
Senate Undecided
36%
43%
100%
44%
36%
40%
Important to Make These People Familiar With

Their Senate Candidates
Undecided in both Pres and Senate race
34%
Not very likely to vote (3-5)
33%
Following the election less closely
30%
Has not voted previously
30%
African-American age 18-24
27%
Age 18-20
26%
Discuss politics infrequently
25%
Never watch TV for political information
25%
Minorities age 18-24
24%
Total
19%
Use the internet to contact elected officials
11%
Sign up to volunteer online
7%
31
Of people who are

familiar with
BOTH Trump and
Clinton, but
NEITHER of their
Senate
Candidates.
To Reach Them, we Have to be Aspirational
Pressure to Participate Comes From Within

Standing up for
my values
To make a
difference
30%
53%
Enjoy participating
14%
Pressure from
superiors
13%
Pressure from
friends
11%
Pressure from
social media
10%
0%
17%
17%
16%
16%
20%
Very important
Not at all important
21%
24%
27%
26%
40%
60%
Somewhat important
Don't know
5% 3%
9%
35%
38%
Pressure from
parents
5% 4%
23%
67%
Others have won

me my right to
participate
33
17%
72%
15%
6%
10%
45%
43%
43%
45%
80%
Not very important
100%
Q: Here are a list

of factors that
others have said
influence their
participation in
the political
process. How
important are
these factors on
your motivations
to participate in
the political
process?
Methodology
These findings are from a proprietary survey conducted by brilliant corners Research &
Strategies. This battleground state survey consisted of 1029 Millennials, age 18-35 in 10 states:
CO, FL, GA, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, and WI. The survey was conducted by phone and online,
starting on July 12, 2016 and ending on July 20, 2016. The surveys sample was drawn randomly
from voter files and online panels and geographically stratified for proportional representation.
The data was weighted slightly to adhere to population demographics of Millennials. The margin
of error overall is +/-3.1%, with a 95% confidence interval.
34

Reaching Them Where They Are: Millennials and Their Changing Political Consumption Patterns A Battleground Poll of Millennials

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Battleground Survey of Millennials July 2016 @cornellbelcher