TAMOJIT CHATTERJEE

1
CURRENT ISSUES: A SERIES OF LECTURES ON CURRENTMAIS
ISSUES

AMB. HANS WINKLER

IRAN: THE JOINT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN OF ACTION AND ITS

IMPLICATIONS

PLEDGE OF HONESTY
On my honor as a student of the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna, I submit this work in good faith and
pledge that I have neither given nor received unauthorized assistance on it.

Current Issues: A series of lectures on current issuesTAMOJIT CHATTERJEE

MAIS I

IRAN: THE JOINT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN OF ACTION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS

The tensions in the Middle East have shown little signs of improvement or abatement, and by the
looks of it, the problems in the region do not show signs of disappearing soon. The unique dynamics of
the region poses peculiar problems that will require intense and innovative diplomatic engineering by the
world community. The Iran Nuclear deal can be counted as one of the stellar accounts, in recent years, of
successful diplomatic manoeuvring to stall an imminent nuclear crisis.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) 1 or the Vienna Agreement which was signed
on July 14, 2015 has been hailed by many, including the United States of America as: more verifiable
and intrusive than any other ever signed.2 Proponents argue that this deal was one of the rare occasions
when the US, Russia and China agreed on a larger geostrategic issue and the 15-0 Security Council
Resolution affirming the deal speaks volumes about the importance and necessity for the JCPOA. 3 The
JCPOA in essence is a nuclear deal aimed at restricting Iran from developing nuclear weapon capabilities
for close to 25 years from the date of signing the Agreement.
The signing of the JCPOA marks a fundamental shift in the policy of the Iranian regime towards
the peaceful use and development of nuclear technology, something that was rendered unthinkable in the
past. The agreement is historic in that sense as it envisages Iran dismantling its centrifuges, allowing for
regular IAEA inspections, being subject to all manners of safeguard and verification mechanisms of the
IAEA while being subject to 25 years of uranium tracking. It also allows for a snap back mechanism (in
terms of imposing back sanctions) if there is a finding of significant breach by Iran. A nuclear agreement
as comprehensive and intrusive of this nature is truly unprecedented and possibly unique.
The implications of this Agreement coming into force would be the lifting of sanctions on Iran 4,
which had left the country politically isolated and economically crippled. For a country that has been
linked with supporting anti-Semitic militant groups in the Middle East while also providing support to the
Assad regime in Syria, the Agreement firstly comes as a huge sigh of relief in terms of neutralising a
1 Full text available at http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/245317.pdf
(last accessed on 08.06.2016)
2 Jeffrey Goldberg, Look ... Its My Name on This: Obama Defends the Iran Nuclear
Deal, THE ATLANTIC, 2015,
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/05/obama-interview-iran-isisisrael/393782/ (last visited Jun 10, 2016).
3 U.N.S.C Res 2231 (2015), available at http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/
%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_res_2231.pdf (last accessed
on 06.06.2016)
4 See for example, U.N.S.C. Res 1929 (2010), available at
http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/IRAN%20SRES%201929.pdf (last accessed on 06.06.2016)
1

Current Issues: A series of lectures on current issuesTAMOJIT CHATTERJEE

MAIS I
nuclear threat. Moreover, with Iran being viewed as a potentially destabilizing actor in the region, such an
agreement, regardless of what critics argue, plays right into the geopolitical interests of the powerful
states at large. A non-nuclear Iran, however radical its foreign policies might be, is more reassuring than a
nuclear capable Iran with the potential to cause widespread destruction in a region already strife with
major
conflicts.
Aside from the huge economic benefits that the Agreement ensues for Iran, politically the deal provides a
window of opportunity in terms of engagement with Iran, which is a powerful actor in the Middle East.
President Rouhani had to pass a difficult test at home in terms of engaging with Western States that the
Ayatollah clearly eyed with suspicion.5 This Agreement thus gives further impetus to the liberal political
elites of Iran to push for co-operation on more broad subjects of economic interests and other mutually
beneficial areas, thus ending decades of isolation from the International community. From the Western
point of view, this Agreement was an essential strategy to at least get Iran on the drawing board. Even
though the Agreement is strictly nuclear related, such a feat displayed that even a destabilising regime can
be negotiated with and expected to behave rationally.
Furthermore, this Agreement provides the necessary impetus to move beyond the nuclear issue
and deal with a broad range of subjects that are of mutual interest to Iran and Western Governments. Iran
could be a useful ally against ISIS. ISIS is one of Irans biggest threats and the Iranian regime recognises
this and is actively engaged in fighting against them. Thus, Iran has the potential to be a possible ally
against the terrible threat that the Islamic state poses against the international community at large.
Strategic Co-operation through deterrence, containment and dtente has been the bedrock of international
relations and a practice of Realpolitik in order to preserve strategic interests and create a balance of power
system is one that should not be ignored. Irans role in the shaping and mitigation of conflicts in the
middle east is enormous.
Hopefully, with the flow of investments into Iran and an economic revival of the State, it will
have a positive effect on the citizens to move towards more liberal political parties like the one led by
President Rouhani. As pointed out by Amb. Postl, since the decision making in the State is still very much
under the Ayatollah, the potential for change through liberal regimes is a hugely motivating factor for
further co-operation. It is not expected that Irans foreign policy will change in a day but sustained cooperation and a revival of the Iranian populations fortune will definitely have a huge impact in the future
of Iran and its policies.
Finally, it is only in the interests of the international community at large to show a degree of
acceptance towards Iran and pursuing a strategy of establishing deep economic ties will considerably
reinforce the economic interdependence theory playing out between Iran and the international community
at large. This economic interdependence, while potentially leading to a virtuous cycle, will at the
minimum provide for substantial deterrence for conflicts to escalate in the future.
To conclude, it is imperative to have a co-operative Iran and it is only by promoting economic
stability in a regional power, and pursuing a mutual strategic interest partnership can one hope to simmer
5 Jeffrey Goldberg, John Kerry on the Risk of Congress Screwing the Ayatollah, THE
ATLANTIC, 2015, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/08/john-kerryinterview-iran-nuclear-deal/400457/ (last visited Jun 10, 2016).
2

Current Issues: A series of lectures on current issuesTAMOJIT CHATTERJEE

MAIS I
down and restore a semblance of balance in the Middle East. Irans role cannot be stressed enough in this
endeavour and thus the Nuclear Agreement might prove to be a stepping stone in bringing an influential
actor in the Middle East into the wider security and economic framework of the international system.