Exasperated by his political dealings with Serbia and its reluctance to fulfill European Union requirements, Miroslav Lajcak, EU special representative to BosniaHerzegovina, said in September 2006,
In Serbia the European idea is not that present, and is not that positiveThis
absence is best seen when you compare Serbia to other countries in the region.
In all other countries, the European idea took more ground, and is felt in all
segments of society, at every step. Those countries are trying hard to show how
much they care about the European Union, and to show what they are doing in
order to become members. This is not the case with Serbia.2
This is an extraordinary and quite impolitic statement by a high European official. It also presents an interesting empirical puzzle: why have some European
Union candidate states been enthusiastic Europeanizers, while others have been
reluctant to adopt European norms? Why would some states refuse to meet EU
requirements to join, when the benefits of EU membership far outweigh the
price of admission? And why would other states rush to join and Europeanize,
1
Authors note: I thank Michael Barnett, William Downs, John Duffield, Kirk Elifson, Doug Rose, Claire Sterk,
Ayse Zarakol, three outstanding anonymous reviewers and editors at International Studies Quarterly for helpful
comments and suggestions, as well as Shannon Jones for research assistance. An earlier version of this paper was
presented at the 2009 International Studies Association Annual Convention.
2
Danas, September 11, 2006.
doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00649.x
! 2011 International Studies Association
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even when Europeanization entails short-term losses for important domestic constituencies? Lajcaks assessment may be extreme, but it speaks both to the importance of state identity and domestic political understanding of Europe in
shaping the complex process of Europeanization.
This article seeks to explain how state identity influences the processes of
Europeanization, especially the poorly understood cases of stalled or interrupted
Europeanization. I specify the mechanisms of identity convergence and identity divergence to explain the different trajectories of Europeanization in otherwise similar
states. Identity convergence is a process by which political actors strategically emphasize shared norms and values and disregard contradictory ones in pursuit of particular political goals. Conversely, identity divergence is a mechanism by which
domestic coalitions resist norms and rules of Europeanization and instead define
the national community in contrast to Europe.
To explore the relationship between identity and Europeanization, I compare
the processes of European accession in Croatia and Serbia. The two countries
make for a strong and useful comparison. The two Balkan states share much in
commonhistory of the joint federal state, experience of communist rule,
legacy of recent war and delayed democratic transitionbut their European trajectories have followed quite different paths. Despite these historical commonalities, political actors in the two states have shown almost opposite attitudes
toward Europeanization, creating a rare analytical opportunity to single out
factors responsible for their divergence. Croatia was accepted as a European
Union candidate state in 2004. It has since fulfilled most of the political, economic, and administrative requirements and accession negotiations, including
the stickiest political requirementfull cooperation with the International
Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). Technical negotiations on
Croatias EU accession are almost complete (European Commission 2009a),
which signals that possible accession could come as early as 2012. Serbia, on
the other hand, is still not a candidate state. It signed the EU Stabilization and
Association Agreement (SAA) in 2008, but its path toward candidacy has since
stalled. The main obstacle for Serbias accession has been its reluctance to
arrest war crimes suspects and fully cooperate with the ICTY. In addition, Serbias refusal to accept Kosovos declaration of independence in 2008 has further complicated its relationship with the EU (European Commission 2009b).
This presents an interesting empirical puzzle. Why has Croatia been more willing to accept intrusive European political requirements than has Serbia?
Through a comparison of the two cases, this piece seeks to answer those questions and add to the increasingly robust literature on Europeanization and
European enlargement.
The article proceeds as follows. I first briefly discuss the state of the broader
scholarly debate about Europeanization. I then introduce a theoretical argument
about the significance of identity politics in evaluating Europeanization processes. The subsequent section develops the mechanisms of identity convergence
and divergence to explain successful or stalled Europeanization. I then apply
these theoretical insights to the cases of Croatia and Serbia. To carefully measure
identity, I use discursive analysis, process tracing, elite interviewing, and archival
research to conduct a structured, focused comparison of the two countries. Since
the purpose of discourse analysis is to recover meaning from the language that
actors use to describe and understand social phenomena (Abdelal, Herrera,
Johnston, and McDermott 2009: 6), I pay particular attention to the selection of
sources within each case. I rely on personal interviews as well as my own
informed interpretations of a variety of texts, such as policy statements, political
party platforms, newspaper and magazine articles, texts of prominent public
intellectuals, and political speeches. I measure the social impact of these elite
discourses by comparing public opinion surveys over time.
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312
and harshness with which they thought European institutions dealt with Serbia.
It is this uncertain and transitional identity, the contested meaning of Europe,
and the presence of alternative domestic identity claims that can best explain
cases of stalled Europeanization.
Identity and Europeanization
I recognize state identity to be a broadly shared understanding of a collective self
as having distinctiveness and purpose in relation to other states. State identities
can be measured along multiple dimensions.3 A state has a discernible identity if
it has shared rules about who is a member of a polity. For an individual state, for
example, these rules can be either ethnic or civic (France is the state of French
people; Canada is the state of Canadian citizens). The European Union has
defined its polity by clear political membership criteria: a market economy,
democracy, and respect for human rights (European Council 1993). These constitutive rules, then, define what it means to be a European state.
Another dimension of state identity is a commitment to shared political goals
and purpose. For example, a shared desire to become a European state has
guided much of the political decisions made by EU candidate states. A state can
also define its identity against another state which it is not (Croatia is different
from the rest of the Balkans; Croatia is Croatia because it is not like the rest of
the Balkans). Finally, a state has a shared identity if it has a collective understanding of what are appropriate political principles and practiceswhat kinds
of political acts are right, which ones are wrong.
State identity does not come out of thin air. It is shaped by international and
domestic environments in which states are embedded (Wendt 1994). The state is
a social actor, and it creates and recreates its identity from interactions with different domestic and international social structures. State identity is fluid and
ever changing; it is constantly in the process of renegotiation and is vulnerable
to challenges and alternative narratives (Barnett 1996). It is also contested and
questioned by outsiders, as well as by different members of the polity who build
their domestic legitimacy on the basis of identity claims. State identity, therefore,
is always profoundly shaped by politics.
Existing Europeanization scholarship has already integrated questions of identity into explanations for candidate states strategies of EU accession and Europeanization. Because membership in the European Union is expected to create a
supranational European political identity, which then influences EU policymaking (Sedelmeier 2005; Caporaso and Kim 2009), much of the work on identity
and Europeanization has focused on ways in which European elites and institutions socialize candidate states into changing first their identities, and then their
preferences and interests (Jupille and Caporaso 1999; Hooghe 2005; Checkel
2007a).
Even with this added focus, we still have no deep understanding of how
domestic identity influences states choice whether or not to Europeanize. Other
than a recent study of the impact of religion on European integration (Byrnes
and Katzenstein 2006), the Europeanization literature has so far not sufficiently
explored how domestic identity can in fact stall, as much as promote, European
integration for candidate states. As Jeffrey Checkel pointed out, the scholarship
on Europeanization badly lags behind a real world realization that cultural Europeanization, in fact, has all but failed (Checkel 2007b; also Checkel and Katzenstein 2009). In many ways, this state of the literature can be attributed to a
certain arrogance on behalf of European institutions, which assume that all
states in Europe, given the choice, will naturally want to become EU members,
3
The identity discussion that follows is adapted from Abdelal et al. (2009).
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because of all the indisputable benefitsmaterial and reputationalthat Europeanization entails. This institutional arrogance has been translated into Europeanization scholarship, which has so far mostly focused on European institutional
impact and socialization on member and candidate states. My analysis curbs this
Euro enthusiasm by showing that for some states, a shared European identity
does indeed trump national concerns, while for othersbecoming European is
not as sweet of a carrot as Brussels assumes it is. The question that this article
addresses, then, is the reverse of much of Europeanization scholarship. Instead
of asking how does Europeanization change state identities, I ask how do state
identities influence the Europeanization process itself? This approach, then,
allows for Europeanization failure and gives us more analytical purchase.
Identity Convergence and Divergence
Just demonstrating that identity matters, however, is not enough. To explain theoretically how exactly identity influences Europeanization decisions, I borrow
insights from the social movements literature to specify mechanisms of identity
convergence and divergence (Stoecker 1995).
Identity convergence is a dynamic process by which political actors strategically
emphasize shared norms and values and disregard or omit contradictory ones in
pursuit of particular political goal. This is a stronger mechanism than a cultural
match between international and domestic norms (Checkel 1999) or normative
resonance between international and domestic levels (Cortell and Davis 1996) in
that it requires direct political action and entrepreneurship of domestic political
actors. Identity convergence is not simply a reflection of the normative environment of matching cultural values. It is a process by which domestic political
actors nurture, reinforce, and promote a particular version of state identity that
best serves their competitive electoral goals.
For identity convergence to succeed, three factors are necessary: (i) the idea
promoted is framed to fit the already existing values and norms that have tipping-point domestic salience; (ii) alternative identity narratives are undeveloped;
and (iii) the previous relationship with the desirable group was positive, and so
expectations of policy success are high. In the context of Europeanization, this
mechanism adheres to the following dynamic: political elites want to promote
Europeanization because they believe that is the best course for the country
(they are socialized Europeanizers) or because they believe that successful Europeanization will bring them political gains (if Europeanization provides benefits,
the voters will reward them).4 Pro-European political actors frame Europeanization demands to fit the already broadly shared views in society (we are European;
we deserve to be in Europe). Alternative identity narratives are either absent or
fully marginalized; there is no widely credible claim that we are [something
else non-European]. To fully consolidate the Europeanization process, political
actors frame any domestic opposition to their policies as fundamentally antiEuropean and, as such, unpatriotic. The opposition is therefore left with limited
discursive space to offer credible counterclaims and becomes marginalized.
Finally, to get full domestic support for policies that would otherwise be quite
unpopular, political leaders link Europeanization to the previous relationship
the state had with Europe. The more positive this relationship is, the more support there will be for Europeanization.
Conversely, identity divergence is a mechanism by which domestic coalitions
resist norms and rules of Europeanization and instead define the national
4
The question of what motivates Europeanizers is a very important one and has been addressed elsewhere
(see Checkel 2001). For the purposes of my argument, how certain elites promote Europeanization is more important than what motivates them to do so.
314
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316
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318
The government strategy was successful and the 2001 crisis was resolved when
one of the accused generals, Rahmi Ademi, surrendered to the tribunal.10
Linking cooperation with the ICTY with Croatias European desire was, however, not enough to mobilize social forces for Europeanization. The second
important government strategy was to marginalize and isolate political opponents
who argued against ICTY cooperation. President Mesic on numerous occasions
called the nationalist mobilization against the ICTY antigovernment, anti-European, and antidemocratic. He stressed that Croatia needed to cooperate with the
ICTY in order to build its future in the company of the democratic world and
united Europe (Mesic 2002). The implication was that those who argued
against the ICTY were also, by extension, against the government, against Europe, and against democracy, and should be discredited. Mesics message and
approach was well accepted in Croatia, where he consistently enjoyed the highest
popularity of any politician in the country.11
Mesic acted on this strategy from the very first days of his presidency. In
September 2000, in response to the first arrests of Croatian war crimes suspects,
12 Croatian generals published an open letter blaming the authorities for
undermining the legitimacy of the homeland war and calling for the government to resign. However, in a strong rebuttal to the nationalists, Mesic
responded by promptly retiring seven of the 12 generals still serving, for politicizing the army.12 Mesics action was widely approved by the public, but more
significantly, it immediately demonstrated the governments resolve to limit the
power of anti-ICTY forces by removing them from positions of authority and
denying them access to means of violence, simultaneously symbolically marginalizing them as antidemocratic and antipatriotic.
Subsequent Croatian governments repeated the strategy of identity convergence. In 2003, Prime Minister Racan was succeeded by Ivo Sanader, the leader
of Tudjmans HDZ with a reputation as a nationalist firebrand. His approach to
Europeanization, however, was if anything more dedicated than that of Racan,
the Social Democrat. What explains Sanaders startling U-turn from a fierce
nationalist into a moderate pro-European statesman is that he realized early on
that his best chance of political survival lay in being the prime minister who
would take Croatia into the EU. Tying his political fortunes so closely to EU
accession, Sanader focused intently on doing whatever it took to make Croatias
European dream a reality. Since the EU had made it clear that the road to Brussels led through The Hague, Sanader decided that cooperating with the ICTY
would be a fast ticket to the place where he wanted Croatia to be (Fisher 2006).
8
9
10
11
12
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When in February 2004, the ICTY indicted Croatian generals Ivan Cermak and
Mladen Markac for crimes against humanity committed during Operation Storm,
the Sanader governments reaction was quicker and cleaner than Racans. The
generals immediately surrendered, and the government swiftly arrested six
remaining suspects, with no domestic political repercussions (Fisher 2006: 195).
The fact that this cycle of arrests did not threaten the governments pro-EU
agenda is even more interesting in light of the continuing public unpopularity
of the ICTY in Croatia.13
The Sanader government also identified a four-prong domestic strategy of
cooperation with the ICTY, which involved protecting the historical truth about
the homeland war, helping suspects, allowing suspects to defend themselves
while on bail, and transferring ICTY cases to Croatian courts.14 In other words,
the Sanader government managed to turn cooperation with the ICTY into a
winwin situation for Croatiascoring international points for cooperation while
ensuring that the public interpretation of the Croatian past would remain ideologically intact.
The Croatian public supported these decisions because they were presented
and framed as issues of Europeanization, not of international punishment or
painful reevaluation of Croatias past. Croatians desire to join the EU was powerful and well documented.15 This government framing explains why the 2004
arrests were greeted by mostly silent approval of the Croatian public and very
limited and marginal protests on the far right (Peskin 2008: 138). Even the generals themselves were helpful to the government. They quietly surrendered and
publicly voiced their support for Croatias cooperation with the tribunal, while
insisting on their personal innocence: We must understand that[Croatias]
constitutional law places a duty on all of us to cooperate with the tribunal, General Cermak said (quoted in Peskin 2008: 140).
Finally, Croatian elites constantly reminded the public of how much Europe
mattered and how Croatia, in fact, was already European: My answer to the
question why I am so much in favor of the EU is: because Croatia has always
been part of Europe. Croatia practices European values, and that has only to be
formalized by accession, Prime Minister Sanader said (Sanader 2005). President
Mesic made impassioned pleas for Croatias Europeanization on numerous occasions. In a 2003 speech, he said,
Croatia is a country whose history reaches far back into the past of Europe, a
country that has always been and has never stopped being a part of the European countrysideWe have given our contribution to Europe innumerable times
in the past. We want and are capable of doing the same in the future as
wellWe expect Europe to recognize us and accept us as its inseparable part.
(Mesic 2003)
These elite efforts worked in making Croatias Europeanization seem not only
politically desirable, but also in many ways inevitable. When the last remaining
Croatian war crimes suspect was arrested in 2005, the final formal obstacle
to Croatias EU accession was lifted. Accession talks began in earnest in 2006,
and Croatian leaders believe Croatia may be welcome into the EU as soon as
13
An opinion poll conducted in 2003 showed that 56% of the electorate was unhappy with Croatias cooperation with The Hague (Gfk Croatia, October 14, 2003).
14
Novi list, July 3, 2004.
15
For example, in 2002, 79% of Croats supported EU membership. Each consecutive year, however, EU enthusiasm slowly decreased, while Euro skepticism is on the rise (Gfk Croatia, July 31, 2003). This is consistent with
research that shows how the population becomes increasingly nervous about EU accession as they learn more about
the social cost of reforms and political elites shift the blame for unpopular policies to EU membership requirements (Szczerbiak 2001).
320
2012. In fact, of all the potential Balkan candidate states, Croatians are the most
optimistic about their speedy accession to the EU.16
The Croatian case shows how political elites were able to strategically link the
requirements of Europeanization with some aspects of Croatian state identity
(Europeanness), while delinking it from others (memory of war). In fact, Europeanization reaffirmed Croatian state identity because it tapped into the constitutive part of Croatian nationalismthe sense of Europeanness. Even Croatian
exclusionary nationalism worked in favor of Europeanization. The more Croatia
emphasized its uniqueness from its neighborsthe more it de-Balkanized
itselfthe closer it was to Europe. Finally, recent memories of Europe were positive, and social expectations of benefits of becoming European were broadly
shared.
This complex strategyidentity convergencewas successful because even
though different segments of the Croatian society and elite held very different
views on the appropriateness and legitimacy of some Europeanization requirements, they all shared a grand strategy of Europeanization. All major political
stakeholders saw Croatias future in Europe, and they were all willing to manipulate the domestic political environment in order to achieve this goal. As we shall
see, the political context of Serbias Europeanization was much different.
Serbia
Serbian political identity in the 1990s underwent a profound ethnification
through massive nationalist mobilization around defending Serbian interests
(Popov 2000). The nationalist discourse created by Serbian political and cultural
elites promoted the idea that Serbia is a victim of vast outside conspiracies that
want to subjugate or destroy it (Ramet 2007). The agents of destruction vary in
the story and across time, but those most commonly mentioned are Kosovar
Albanians, Slovenes, Croats, Muslims, the international community, the United
States, the European Union, and NATO (Bogosavljevic and Logar 2001). The
Serbian Orthodox Church has been an important purveyor of this exclusionary
Serbian identity. The Church has held profoundly anti-Western and anti-European positions and has often portrayed the European Union as a revived Habsburg Catholic Empire backed by the reunited Germany and the Vatican (Perica
2006: 181).
The narrative for the past 20 years in Serbia has been that of a victimized
nation, of people on the run or engaged in self-defense against one of their enemies (MacDonald 2002). It is difficult to overestimate the saturation in the public discourse of this idea. It has permeated all aspects of public life, requiring
politicians to address and solve it. This narrative also gives context to the public
approval of Slobodan Milosevic and his destructive policies, as Serbian wartime
exploits were framed domestically as a fundamentally defensive posture against
Serbian annihilation by non-Serbs of the former Yugoslavia and the anti-Serb
West (Colovic 2002).
The NATO intervention against Serbia in 1999 further solidified Serbian feeling of victimhood and a great sense of injustice at the hands of great powers.
The United States was blamed for intervening militarily against Serbian forces in
Bosnia in 1995 and then in Serbia proper in 1999, while the European Union
was blamed for recognizing Croatia and Bosnia prematurely, which in the
broadly shared Serbian view, precipitated the war (Nakarada 1995). At the same
time, the Serbian government hailed Russia as Serbias closest ally and attempted
to forge close ties with the resurgent former power. In perhaps the most bizarre
of these pro-Russian overtures, the Serbian Parliament voted in April 1999 (at
16
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321
the height of the NATO war) to unilaterally join the Federation of Russia and
Belarus, a move that was met with somewhat befuddled response from the two
Slavic nations.17
Serbian nationalism of the 1990s is well documented and understood. What is
more intriguing is the continuation and further refinement of victim-centered
Serbian state identity since Milosevic was ousted from power in 2000 when, after
the popular unrest following fraudulent elections, conservative Vojislav Kostunica
was elected president and moderate Zoran Djindjic became prime minister.18
Identity in Transition
322
In fact, Serbian elites have expressed strong interest in forging a closer partnership with Putins Russia. For example, Tomislav Nikolic, former Parliament
Speaker and president of the somewhat amusingly misnamed Serbian Progressive
Party,22 the extreme right wing and second-strongest Serbian political party, said:
It would be ideal if we could be with both Russia and the EU, but these two
unions are very different. EU only blackmails, humiliates, seizes our territory,
while Russia helps.23
Serbian reformers also advocated closer ties with Russia.24 In 2008, the Serbian
reformist government signed a controversial gas deal, selling 51% of Serbias
state-owned gas industry to a Russian gas conglomerate. The deal was hailed in
both Russia and Serbia as the beginning of a major regional economic partnership. Serbian president Boris Tadic framed this agreement as a major geostrategic accomplishment that would allow Serbia to be an economic conduit of sorts
for Russia in the EU.25
At the same time, Serbia has made many pro-European gestures. Serbia was
the president of the rotating Council of Europe presidency in 2007, and the government marked that occasion with a great celebration in Belgrade. For the first
time, the European flag was flying next to the Serbian flag on the Serbian Parliaments building. Parliament speaker Oliver Dulic gave an impassioned speech in
which he said, I hope we will do all we can to soon become a part of Europe,
accept European standards and work hard.26
These competing elite preferences about Europe are perhaps best illustrated
by a November 2007 event, when government officials organized dueling public
rallies in Belgrade: the pro-European, reformist wing of the government distributed leaflets educating the population about all the benefits of EU membership,
while a few feet away, the conservative Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) officials
informed the gathered citizens of all the reasons why Serbia should choose the
third way of neutrality and against NATO membership.27
Serbias attitude toward Europe, therefore, is a deeply conflicted one. Serbia
continues to imagine itself as a regional leader with grand political ambition. It
pursues this ambition through its strategic alliance with Russia, which often
comes at the expense of a full embrace of Europeanization.
Europeanization and Identity Divergence
After Milosevic was ousted from power in 2000, the international community
expected the new government to swiftly repudiate Milosevics policies and
22
The Serbian Progressive Party (SPP) was formed in October 2008, after an internal split within the Serbian
Radical Party (SRS), of which Mr. Nikolic was also president. In a September 2009 poll, the SPP comes in second,
with a 31% share of the vote, after the Democratic Party, favored by 34% of Serbian voters (B92, September 4,
2009).
23
B92, May 11, 2007.
24
Forging closer ties with Russia is also broadly popular with the Serbian public. In one recent poll, as many as
69% of Serbian citizens favored forging the closest ties with Russia (Publikum, November 16, 2008).
25
B92, January 25, 2008.
26
B92, September 21, 2007.
27
B92, November 10, 2007.
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324
found huge resonance among the population, who continue to hold extremely
negative views of the court.30
Kostunicas resistance to the ICTY was not only ideological; it was also firmly
political. Kostunicas conservative coalition used The Hague issue to present
itself to the voters as a truly patriotic force, a message clearly aimed at Milosevic
loyalists who were now looking at the changed political landscape in search of a
new home. In a sense, the conservatives had to oppose ICTY cooperation,
because this earned them domestic support and secured their unchallenged
place on the political right.
In contrast, the reformist Democratic Party (DS) positioned itself as the party
of European integration, reform, and internationalism, juxtaposing it to the reactionary and anti-European DSS. Much like their Croatian counterparts, the
reformists linked cooperation with the ICTY to European integration: Europe
is our house and no price is too high to payI am for Europe, Prime Minister
and DS president Zoran Djindjic famously said, implying that his opponents were
not (quoted in Biserko 2006: 229). For the reformers, the focus was on integrating Serbia into international institutions and ultimately taking it to the European
Union. While they also opposed the fundamental premise of many Hague indictments, the reformers argued that cooperation was simply a necessary step toward
EU accession. Reformers, however, failed to deliver on many of these promises.
They rhetorically supported ICTY cooperation as a pathway to Europe, but they
also hesitated to deal with this issue directly, by for example aggressively pursuing the principal ICTY war crimes suspect, Ratko Mladic, who remains at large.
They also had little room to maneuver as their core support never went higher
than 30%, which was never enough of a base from which to launch a
major unpopular policy shift without suffering immediate political consequences
(Subotic 2009).
The reformers attempts were further decimated by the March 2003 assassination of Prime Minister Djindjic by members of the notorious paramilitary unit
the Red Berets.31 The assassination conspirators called the operation Stop The
Hague, strongly indicating that Djindjic was murdered to end further ICTY
extraditions.32 Djindjics assassination marked a pivotal moment in Serbias transition and its attitude toward both the ICTY and Europeanization. His death left
a huge power vacuum, which was immediately filled by Kostunicas anti-Europeanizers and by the extreme nationalist SRS. The assassination compromised further cooperation with the ICTY, as the only element in the Serbian government
inclined to cooperate was removed. The assassination also indicated that, unlike
in Croatia where president Mesic swiftly dealt with antiregime opponents by
removing them from power, the Serbian government co-opted Milosevic era
loyalists, a decision that preserved antiregime elements in control over the
monopoly of force.
After years of practically suspended EU negotiations, the Serbian government
got a break in July 2008, when Radovan Karadzic, the second most wanted ICTY
fugitive, was suddenly arrested in Belgrade. The government placed Karadzics
arrest in the context of Serbias European aspirations, as a sign that the Serbian
government has a very ambitious European agenda.33 However, while the
30
In a 2008 opinion poll, as many as 86% of Serbian citizens believed that the ICTY was biased against the
Serbs (B92, July 25, 2008).
31
This group was formed as a paramilitary unit in 1990 to stir up Serbian rebellion in Croatia. Its members are
accused of committing some of the most heinous atrocities in the Yugoslav wars. After the end of the war, the Red
Berets merged with regular security forces, making them much more difficult to disband and prosecute (Vreme,
October 19, 2000).
32
Testimony of Zvezdan Jovanovic, one of the alleged assassins, during the assassination trial proceedings (Glas
javnosti, December 26, 2003).
33
B92, July 22, 2008.
Jelena Subotic
325
One of the three major political parties, the conservative DSS, directly linked
Kosovos independence with Europeanization. In its new party platform, DSS
says:
The European orientation of Serbia should be called into question for a very
simple reason: who in Serbia is ready to believe that someone who is part of the
hostile context, notably the process of establishment of Kosovo status, may in any
other matter have friendly intentions. Advice like Let go of Kosovo, ahead of
you is European future is unacceptable for Serbs, not because it is a bad offer,
but because, after all recent developments, no-one has faith in [Europes] sincerity and
good intentions any more.35
Serbian deputy prime minister Bozidar Djelic was even more explicit: If anyone tries to make us choose [between ratifying the SAA and keeping Kosovo],
we shall choose Kosovo.36 These attitudes about attachment to Kosovo are evident in survey after survey. In a 2008 poll, only 7% of Serbian citizens approved
of Kosovos independence while the overwhelming majority supported either
Kosovos autonomy within Serbia (54%) or the partition of Kosovo (27%).
In another poll, 61% of Serbian citizens said they would never accept Kosovos
independence.37 The de facto European positionKosovos independence
was clearly profoundly unpopular. More importantly, in the minds of both the
Serbian elite and the public, it became easily conflated with the process of
Europeanization as a whole.
It is these two political problemsThe Hague and Kosovoand the European
requirements regarding them that profoundly shaped how Serbia saw Europe.
While both Croatian and Serbian governments cooperated with the ICTY
because they had tobecause cooperation was tied to EU accessionthe process
of Europeanization was built on quite different mechanisms. Croatian elites presented cooperation as necessary and in line with Croatian respect of European
institutions. Croatia cooperated with European requirements because it was a
European state that respects the rule of law. Serbian elites, especially since Djindjics assassination, cooperated because they felt coerced and bullied. They fundamentally rejected The Hague tribunal, but felt obligated to arrest suspects as
the only way to avoid costly international punishmentsuspension of EU talks.
34
35
36
37
326
This produced very different attributions of meaning to Europe in the two countries. Instead of attaching the meaning of democracy, liberty, and civilization to
Europe, as was the case in Croatia, in Serbia, Europe was understood to be a
punisher, a bully, an arrogant force that wanted to shape the region in its own
image. To the extent that Europe expressed outrage and disgust at Serbias wartime policies and its contemporary denials, and was insensitive to Serbias attachment to Kosovo, Europe came to be constructed in Serbia as an other, not quite
a foe (that would be the United States and NATO), but never a friend (that
would be Russia). In Serbia, European and national identity diverged during the
process of Europeanization. Each new European request served to further revitalize Serbian nationalism and its claims to victimhood and historical injustice.
Serbian political actors consciously and strategically responded to this conflicted
identity environment. Unlike their Croatian counterparts, Serbian elites did not
work on delinking requirements of Europeanization from more contested
national myths. Instead, they embraced the confusion and conflation that existed
in Serbia about what, exactly, Europeanization entails. In the short term, this
move helped them get votes, but it pushed Serbia further away from Brussels.
Alternative Explanations
There are, however, a few alternative explanations for divergent Europeanization
outcomes in Croatia and Serbia that need to be addressed. The first set of arguments deals with the political economy of the two states. One available explanation is that the economies of the two countries were of different structure and
strength, which could indicate that EU integration was more attractive to the
more economically mature Croatia. I have two answers to this claim. First, the
short-term economic cost of Croatias full EU membership would be very significant (1% of gross domestic product the first year alone) and the benefits not
immediately obvious (Miosic-Lisjak 2006). Croatian policymakers worried deeply
about these costs, but they drew on other kinds of symbolic benefits to forcefully
argue for Croatias EU accession. Conversely, this focus on pre-integration
economic development can just as easily be argued the other waywould not
less-developed Serbia do all that it could to join the EU, in order to lift itself out
of European economic periphery?
Even if we accept the notion that the requirements the EU placed on Serbia
were onerous (giving up Kosovo and renouncing territorial claims on Bosnias
Serb Republic while accepting responsibility for grave war crimes)it is not
immediately obvious why would these costs outweigh the clear benefits of EU
membership. Further, Serbias emotional hold on Kosovo cannot be explained
in rationalist terms, as the territory does not provide any material benefit to Serbiait is extremely resource poor, is inhabited by a 90% Albanian population
that has grown increasingly hostile to the Serbian state, and has always been a
drain on already limited Serbian resources. Something else, not material interests, are at work here.
Another political economy explanation looks at the politicization of the economy: Serbia is unique in that its economy is controlled by a small mafia that has
much to lose from European integration (Gould and Sickner 2008). While this
is certainly true for Serbia, it is also true to a great extent for Croatia, therefore
minimizing the structural differences between the two economies. For example,
the World Bank 2004 report on Croatia warned of cross-links of ownership
among tycoon groups, public enterprises, and banks, producing an avalanche
of related-party lending and self-dealing (World Bank 2004). This change in
ownership structure produced a new governing economic-political nexus (MiosicLisjak 2006), which would benefit little from Europeanization. While perhaps of
a different scope and scale from that in Serbia, Croatias economic oligarchy is
Jelena Subotic
327
pronounced enough to beg for a different explanation for the two countries
divergent European trajectories.
The second set of alternative explanations deals with issues of security and
grand strategy, specifically the different conclusions of nationalist struggles of the
two nations. While Croatia emerged from the 1990s ethnically homogenous, Serbia emerged defeated on several fronts and facing the imminent loss of Kosovo. A
realist conclusion, therefore, is that what is at work here are commonalities of
interest as signaled by past behavior: the EU will continue to be seen as a potential
ally by Croatia, and thus Croatia will seek to grow closer to it, while Serbia does
not view the EU as an ally and is not interested in further security integration.
This is a significant point, but in fact, it does not negate my main hypothesis;
it further strengthens it. As indicated in discussions above about the importance
of war memory in the two states, the wars end and the consequences of victory
and defeat feature centrally in postwar debates in the two countries. The credit
Croatia placed on Europes assistance in declaring independence and providing
support throughout the wartime period contrasted starkly with the blame Serbia
placed on Europe for allowing Croatia to secede and for punishing Serbia for,
in its view, trying to keep the old Yugoslavia together. It is by linking the positive recent experience with Europe in Croatia and stressing the negative history of interactions in Serbia that the political elites in the two countries shaped
their respective paths toward Europe. By offering a direct link between identity
and state strategy, this article offers an alternative understanding of state behavior and international cooperation.
A third set of alternative explanations stress the importance of political parties
and their electoral calculations. In most EU candidate states, party elites have
realized that their political fortunes would be better if they adopted a pro-EU
agenda (Vachudova 2008). This can explain strong HDZ support for the EU in
Croatia, while in Serbia, the countrys intense and unresolved nationalist struggles make a nationalist anti-EU agenda too easy and attractive for elites to pass
up (Batt 2005). While persuasive and ultimately plausible explanations, they are
wanting in two ways. First, nationalist parties do not necessarily need a real
nationalist cause to rally around; what makes them truly nationalist is that they
can frame most political problems in a nationalist framework. Therefore, if the
HDZ still wanted to whip up nationalist sentiments, it could choose from a menu
of constructed grievances. Nationalism is a moving target, and constructing
threats and enemy others is a process that does not need objective measurements of victory and defeat.
Second, while nationalism in Serbia remains a recurrent theme in party politics, even the most extreme nationalists, the SRS, have over time adopted other
issues to broaden their appeal and encroach on their opponents electoral territory. In the last few election campaigns, the Radicals have co-opted a populist
economic, anti-corruption theme, which attracted many voters who would not
necessarily be comfortable with a campaign run exclusively on virulent nationalism. Serbias anti-EU elites, therefore, had multiple avenues to push against
Europeanization, the existence of nationalist threats being just one of them.
Conclusion
The value of a constructivist approach that focuses on identity is to enrich our
explanations of Europeanization by looking at the power of arguments, debates,
narratives, and meaning political actors give to their actions. As this article has
shown, European Union incentives have been incredibly important in guiding
state action, but domestic arguments and debates about Europe were critical
because they put those incentives in a domestic social context and gave them
locally resonant meaning.
328
Jelena Subotic
329
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