Romania
Market
Overview
Full speed ahead
H1 2015
Yield
compression
within all
sectors
Flourishing sales
and higher rental
budgets in the
residential market
CONTENTS
03
INTRODUCTION
04
06
OFFICE MARKET
09
LAND MARKET
10
INVESTMENT MARKET
12
RETAIL MARKET
12 SHOPPING CENTRES
14 HIGH STREET
15
INDUSTRIAL&LOGISTICS MARKET
17
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
19
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
20
HOTEL MARKET
21
PROPERTY TAXATION
22
LEGAL ASPECTS
INTRODUCTION
Romanian market
In the office market pre-leasing
activity accounted for more
than a third of the total take-up
in H1 2015, a 30% increase
compared to the same period of
2014. IT&Communication was again
the dominant sector accounting for
more than 50% of the total demand,
whereas Calea Floreasca/
Barbu Vacarescu was the most
sought after submarket.
European outlook
The revival of investment activity in
Europes peripheral markets has
gathered pace. Spain and Ireland,
which have led the peripheral market
recovery over the last 18 months, have
continued to attract heightened levels
of investment, but the most impressive
increases in activity during H1 came in
Italy and Portugal.
HORATIU FLORESCU
Chairman & CEO
KNIGHT FRANK ROMANIA
MATTHEW COLBOURNE
HIGHLIGHTS
Romanias economic growth
profile has improved in recent
quarters due to a combination of
local and external factors.
We foresee real GDP growth at
3.2% in 2015 and 3.5% in 2016,
based on household consumption.
Investments are recovering at
present, but their outlook remains
surrounded by risks.
Romanias economy:
So far, so good
by Eugen Sinca, Senior Analyst, BCR
Romanias economic growth profile
has improved in recent quarters due
to a combination of local and external
factors. The Eurozone economy,
Romanias main trading and investment
partner, is on track for a modest
recovery in 2015; real GDP growth is
expected at around 1.5% in 2015 and
1.8% in 2016, after negative growth rates
in 2012-2013 and unimpressive growth
in 2014. The ECBs asset purchase
program seems to be paying off and
lending to the private sector is gradually
improvingacross the continent, low oil
prices are already supporting household
consumption, while European export
companies are benefitting from the
depreciation of the euro vs. the dollar.
Only the Chinese economic slowdown
and the unsettled Greek sovereign
debt problem seem to cloud Europes
economic outlook in future quarters.
Figure 1
RETAIL SALES
INDUSTRY
CONSTRUCTION
GDP
130%
120%
110%
100%
90%
70%
80%
HIGHLIGHTS
Office take-up in Bucharest
reached 140,000 sq m in H1 2015,
a 5% increase on H1 2014.
IT&Communication was again the
dominant sector accounting for
more than 50% of total demand,
while Calea Floreasca/Barbu
Vacarescu was the most soughtafter submarket.
Vacancy rates have fallen
due to the limited number of
developments, but there is a
significant office development
pipeline for the next few years.
Pre-leasing activity accounted for
more than a third of total take-up
in H1 2015, a 30% increase on the
same period in 2014.
OFFICE MARKET
Overview
In the first half of 2015, only two office
buildings totaling 44,000 sq m were
delivered to the Bucharest market.
The limited amount of new stock has
prompted a fall in the vacancy rate which
declined by 1.1 percentage points for
class A buildings. Demand for office
space is marginally higher than in 2014,
although H1 2015 saw no new entrants
to the market.
In general, market sentiment is positive,
with several high profile office projects
currently under construction, the majority
being developed speculatively. In
addition, by the end of 2016, we expect
the amount of supply in Calea Floreasca/
Barbu Vacarescu to exceed that of the
Central Business District (CBD).
Supply
H1 2015 saw the delivery of one Class A
building (Green Court II) and one class
B building which had been converted
from a shopping center (City Offices).
These two buildings comprised around
44,000 sq m of space, bringing the total
modern office stock of Bucharest to 2.16
million sq m.
In terms of submarkets, around 60% of
total new supply was delivered in the
South, with the remainder delivered in
Calea Floreasca/Barbu Vacarescu.
In the rest of the country, H1 2015
recorded only two new completions
both in Cluj-Napoca and comprising
the second phases of existing
projects: Liberty Technology
Park II (11,250 sq m) and
Cluj Business Center II (11,000 sq m).
Demand
In H1 2015 total leasing activity reached
140,000 sq m for Class A and B office
space, a slight increase of 5% compared
with the same period in 2014.
Figure 3
Figure 4
H1 2015
H1 2015
H1 2015
Demand by submarket
>5,000 sq m 46%
Pre-lease 36%
1,0003,000 sq m
Relocation 25%
34%
<1,000 sq m 18%
Renegotiation/renewal
19%
3,0005,000 sq m
15%
2%
Expansion
5%
Calea Floreasca
Barbu Vacarescu
40%
Dimitrie Pompeiu
26%
7%
CBD
7%
CenteR 6%
Center-West 5%
BANEASA
4%
PIPERA 2%
SOUTH
2%
West 1%
53+15+7631A
Figure 5
7%
Pharma
7%
Other 6%
FMCG 6%
Manufacturing Industrial&Energy 3%
Media&Marketing 1%
Construction&Real Estate
1%
Agriculture 1%
Forecast
Around 70,000 sq m of new office
space is expected to be delivered in
the second half of 2015, an increase
of over 50% on the same period in
2014. Noteworthy projects include AFI
Park 4 and 5 (32,000 sq m) and the
refurbishment of Sema Parc Office 3
(14,000 sq m).
TABLE 1
Figure 6
Figure 7
class A - H1 2015(%)
2,500,000
1618
1416
Calea Floreasca
-Barbu Vacarescu
1416
Center-West
1315
Baneasa
1214
East
1113
Dimitrie Pompeiu
1113
West
1112
South
1011
Pipera
810
CLASS B
CLASS A
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2010
CBD
2015 F
H1 2015
2014
Vacancy
2013
2012
2011
Rents
LAND MARKET
Overview
HIGHLIGHTS
Prices
Supply
In terms of supply, there was no notable
change in the market compared with
the previous years, when major banks
and insolvency companies put up for
sale substantial land plots as distressed
properties. The currently available land
plots on the market are intended for
residential, office, retail or industrial
developments.
Demand
In H1 2015, demand for land continued
to grow with a high level of activity in all
market segments. As in recent years,
retailers were the most active in terms
of securing land plots for their future
locations.
Noteworthy transactions in Bucharest
included the acquisition of a 10.8 ha
Forecast
The supply of land plots suitable for
good projects is expected to decrease,
while the demand is growing for land
plots suitable for residential and office
use. Thus, prices will witness
a slight increase.
As the process of obtaining all the
documents needed for a development
(PUZ, building permit) is lengthy and
cumbersome, the demand for land
plots with all authorizations in place
will be high.
Figure 8
TABLE 2
(/sq m)
Location
Buyer
Size
Use
Theodor Pallady
Bucharest
IKEA
10.8 ha
Retail
Pantelimon Bucharest
Dedeman
5 ha
Retail
Western Bucharest
Policolor
2.5 ha
Industrial
Berceni Bucharest
Metalurgiei Park
Residence
50 ha
Residential
Unirii Bucharest
Unirii View
2,700 sq m
Office
Iasi
4.6 ha
Retail
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
H1
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
500
HIGHLIGHTS
Investors appetite for real estate
in Romania has increased in recent
months as the positive economic
conditions, together with yield
compression in other CEE
countries, have made investment
in the country very attractive.
Total investment volumes for the
period including 2014 and H1 2015
represent a post-crisis peak, and
this optimistic trend is expected to
continue.
Yields hardened in the local
market, particularly in Bucharest,
where yields for prime office space
fell by 50 bps in 12 months to 7.5%
in H1 2015.
89+9+2A
Figure 9
Transaction distribution
by property type in H1 2015
Industrial 89%
INVESTMENT MARKET
Overview
During the first half of 2015, a low level
of investment activity was recorded in
Romania. A total of 165 million was
transacted during this period, significantly
lower in comparison with H1 2014.
The second half of 2015 is expected to
improve, following a similar trend seen
during the same period of 2014 when
numerous large deals, such as the sales
of Green Court Phase I and the Nusco
Tower, increased full-year volumes.
Many transactions are currently in an
exclusivity period (after a MoU), with
several others very close to closing, which
will help to boost full-year investment
volumes. However, after an unusually
strong 2014, investment for 2015 is
forecast to be slightly lower this year.
Supply
Compared to the low delivery of projects
in previous years, the last 18 months has
seen several prime assets, developed by
established groups with excellent track
records, being brought to the market.
This has generated important investments
for the country, as the real estate market
continues to climb a wall of worry.
Investors appetite, both international
and local, for income producing assets
is growing. Banks are increasingly willing
to offer financing for projects with low
risk and we expect their risk aversion
to diminish over the next few years,
as the investment market continues to
strengthen.
Retail 9%
Office 2%
TABLE 3
Office
Retail
Industrial
7.5
7.75
9.00
10
Demand
The total investment volume of
165 million in H1 2015 represents just
below 50% of total volumes recorded in
H1 2014. Despite this, the second half of
2015 will compensate, with several office
and industrial transactions expected to
close in the coming months.
The industrial sector dominated
transactional activity in H1 2015,
accounting for just below 90% of
the total investment volumes, with
Yields
Improved investment activity in the last
18 months consequently led to gradual
yield compression across all sectors.
In Bucharest, yields for prime office
space fell by 50 bps to 7.5% in H1 2015.
Together with improved economic
conditions, real estate in Romania has
become extremely attractive.
In the wider CEE region, a number of
large transactions have caused yields
to harden, with the lowest recorded in
Prague 5.75% for prime office assets,
5.50% for prime retail assets and 7% for
prime industrial projects.
H1
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
200
2006
2005
Figure 10
2004
Forecast
11
HIGHLIGHTS
Compared to H1 2014, when no
deliveries were registered, supply
significantly increased in H1 2015.
RETAIL MARKET
Shopping CENTRES
Overview
Economic growth driven by an increase
in consumption and consumer
confidence, provided a strong incentive
for retailers to reconsider their cautious
expansion plans in Romania. Shopping
centers remained the main destinations
for shopping and with the new deliveries,
such as Mega Mall in Bucharest, new
brands have also entered the market.
Modern retail stock in Romania
increased by 117,700 sq m in the first
six months on 2015, with many mall
expansions expected to complete by the
year-end. Throughout H1 2015, fashion
retailers maintained their growth plans,
with many opening stores in Bucharest.
Supply
Although there were no new deliveries
during the first three months of 2015, Q2
saw retail stock in Bucharest increasing
by 72,700 sq m, owing to the completion
of the Mega Mall project, developed by
NEPI. This took total stock levels in the
city to approximately 1 million sq m.
Demand
Demand in H1 2015 was generated
largely by well-known food and fashion
brands. After a pause of one year, fashion
retailer Inditex signed contracts for 10
new stores in the Mega Mall in Bucharest
and Coresi Shopping Center in Brasov,
prior to their completions.
At least 25 new retailers have entered the
Romanian market so far this year, focusing
mainly on leasing space in Bucharest.
Marks&Spencer opened their first local
food store in Mega Mall, as did sportswear
specialists Sport Vision, Buzz and
Sportisimo. Significant activity also came
from interior design and home decoration
retailers such as English Home, Roche
Bobois and Casa Convenienza.
Figure 11
RETAIL STOCK SQ M
1,200
SQ M / 1,000 INHB.
1,080
800,000
960
12
Galati
Brasov
120
Craiova
100,000
Timisoara
240
Sibiu
200,000
Ploiesti
360
Cluj Napoca
480
300,000
Suceava
400,000
Pitesti
600
Constanta
500,000
Oradea
720
Iasi
840
600,000
Bucharest
700,000
Forecast
Compared to H1 2014, when no deliveries
were registered, supply significantly
increased in H1 2015. During the second
half of the year, new supply, particularly
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
H1
2015
2014
200,000
H2
2015 F
(sq m)
2013
2012
Figure 12
2011
2010
Rents
ANNUAL COMPLETIONS
STOCK
13
HIGH STREET
HIGHLIGHTS
The high street retail market
welcomed some new entrants
this year Nespresso opened
its doors on Calea Dorobantilor,
while luxury fashion brand
Michael Kors opened its first
shop in JW Mariotts The Grand
Gallery, together with Braiconf
and Diesel.
Nespresso, Bucharest
Overview
In H1 2015 the growth on the high
street market in Romania remained
fairly steady. The most active players
in the market, continuing expansion,
were food retailers, casinos and betting
operators. New shopping mall deliveries
on the Romanian retail market during
the first half of the year contributed to
broadly stable prime high street rents
for 100 sq m spaces, which remained at
5060/sq m/month.
Figure 13
Rents
14
H1
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
55
2010
Demand
Supply
60
50
Forecast
An increase in public and private
consumption has led to a rise in retailers
confidence as well as their appetite for
expansion. Therefore, we expect a rise in
such activity in the short-term.
INDUSTRIAL
& LOGISTICS MARKET
Overview
The first half of 2015 witnessed a strong
activity in terms of new deliveries in the
regional cities of Romania. Retailers
are still among the most active tenants,
together with logistics operators.
Supply
A total of 88,500 sq m were brought to
the market across the regional cities
in H1 2015, thus bringing the industrial
and logistics stock in Romania to
almost 2 million sq m. The new supply
consisted of extensions to four existing
developments, comprising 54,500 sq m
in Timisoara Airport Park, developed by
Globalworth for Continental and Elster
Rometrics, 20,000 sq m in Olympian
Timisoara, 10,000 sq m in Transilvania
Logistic Park Cluj and 4,000 sq m
built-to-suit in CTP Turda. Speculative
deliveries represented a third of the total
HIGHLIGHTS
New supply in H1 2015 was
80% higher than the deliveries in
the whole year of 2014, proving
developers confidence in the
market. Excluding Bucharest,
which recorded 30% of the total
take-up, Ploiesti and Timisoara
were the most attractive cities in
terms of demand.
Demand
The total industrial take-up across the
country was slightly more than 180,000
sq m in H1 2015, similar to H1 2014.
Figure 15
Figure 16
H1 2015
H1 2015
H1 2015
Take-up by region
Bucharest 29%
renewal/RENEGOTIATION 34%
LOGISTICS 28%
Ploiesti 23%
Pre-lease 26%
RETAIL 27%
Timisoara 23%
Relocation 22%
Automotive
22%
BRASOV 10%
PRODUCTION
10%
ORADEA 9%
EXPANSION 7%
OIL&GAS 7%
CLUJ 4%
DISTRIBUTION 3%
ARAD 2%
ARCHIVING SERVICES
2%
MedICAL&PHARMA 1%
15
Vacancy
Forecast
Rents
Rental levels for prime industrial and
logistics space remained stable in the
first half of 2015, both in Bucharest and
in the other regions across the country.
TABLE 4
Typical
contract
length
Logistics
35 years
Production
57 years
BTS
710 years
TABLE 5
Bucharest
Rest
of the
country
Logistics
(<3,000 sq m)
3.904.20
3.503.90
3648 weeks
Logistics (3,000
10,000 sq m)
3.754.00
3.003.50
Incentives
Logistics
(>10,000 sq m)
3.303.60
2.503.00
Indexation
HICP
Manufacturing
3.504.25
3.503.75
Average BTS
construction
duration
Service charge
Source: Knight Frank
Figure 17
Figure 18
1,200,000
250,000
1,000,000
200,000
800,000
150,000
600,000
50,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
H1 2015
200,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
H1 2015
100,000
400,000
16
0.500.95
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
Supply
During H1 2015, the residential market
registered a flourishing activity in terms
of new supply, with well performing
residential compounds elaborating
expansion plans. New deliveries were
generated mainly by the most active
players in the residential market such
as Cosmopolis which delivered 50 new
apartments in the first part of the year,
taking its total to approximately 1,800
residential units. As per its expansion
plans, the developer started the
construction of four apartment blocks
which are due at the beginning of 2016.
West Residential Park delivered 63
apartments in its Scandinavia project
and started the construction of a new
block. Started last year the Timisoara
58 residential project, developed by
the Spanish group Gran Via, also
delivered another two blocks with 170
apartments in the first half of 2015.
City Point delivered its second block
bringing 50 units to the market and it is
already developing the third one.
Greenfield Residence, a very popular
residential compound located in the
northern part of Bucharest, which
has less than 10% of its delivered
units available for sale, started the
construction of its second phase
consisting of 9 blocks with 252
apartments to be delivered in H2 2015.
HIGHLIGHTS
The Bucharest residential market
was thriving in the first half of
2015. Both local and international
developers are turning their
attention towards the Romanian
market announcing large
developments in Bucharest, as
well as in other major cities of the
country.
Serenia, Bucharest
17
Average prices
(/built sq m 1 bedroom apartment)
MIN.
AVG.
MAX.
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
Upper End
Low End
Medum End
200
0
Figure 20
H1
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
5,000
0
18
Figure 19
1,400
Demand
ALINA NECULA
1,600
Prices
Prices slowly started to pick
up, with average values varying
between 7001,200/built sq m and
medium-range projects recording an
average of 950/built sq m.
Lettings
Compared with 2014, when the
corporate lettings market saw a
decrease in rental budgets, as clients
either renegociated their existing
contracts or lowered their starting
budget, H1 2015 witnessed an increase
in rental budgets.
As a general trend, corporate clients
are interested in apartments with 3 or
4 rooms in northern prime locations,
such as Aviatorilor, Kiseleff, Dorobanti
Capitale or Floreasca. The average
term of a leasing contract is 2 years.
Trends
As anticipated, new mixed use projects
will be delivered in Bucharest, a trend in
line with other European capital cities.
In H1 2015, Vastint Romania, IKEA's
real estate division, started works at a
mixed use project in the central area,
on the site of the former Timpuri Noi
plant. The project will include office and
residential units and its first phase is
due to be delivered in 2016. In addition,
Immofinanz group announced a large
scale project which will include the
modernization and extension of Iride
Business Park. The entire project will
include office, retail, hotel and residential
space, and is expected to take several
years to complete.
In the coming years, as buyers become
more sophisticated, the residential
market may witness more innovative
concepts that are environmentaly
friendly and cost effective. Furthermore,
sustained by the economic recovery,
both local and international developers
may shift their attentions away from
Bucharest, towards the other major cities
in Romania with the greatest potential for
residential development. H2 2015 is set
to see high levels of new supply.
PROJECT
MANAGEMENT
Overview
As the economic growth of Romania
continues, the improvement of business
productivity and flexibility is proven
essential for companies in order to
remain competitive.
Project management services are
designed to comprehensively meet
clients requirements for the interior
design, fit-out and renovation of office
spaces that increase productivity and
save on occupational costs.
Supply
Following the general trend of previous
years, project management in the
Romanian office market was provided
by external consultants from all the
major agencies, dedicated project
management companies or in-house by
the developers.
Demand
In H1 2015, demand continued to come
mainly from corporations that calculate
project management fees into their
budget, followed by smaller offices.
Adding a project management fee into
the budget, actually led to a reduced
HIGHLIGHTS
Efficient project management
services have improved the
functionality of space by 15%
to 30% and reduced project
costs by at least 15%.
Forecast
Corporations are setting a trend by
choosing different types of office
layouts, according to their internal
collaboration systems, which encourage
communication and improve the
employee experience. The creation of
such environments elevates employees
satisfaction and ultimately, work
productivity.
Moreover, we expect an increase in the
adaptation of hot desk solutions, which
save on occupational costs.
Organizations that embrace mobile
workstyles and support a distributed
workforce enable people to strike a
better work-life balance. To achieve this,
they will rely on multiple, complementary
technologies and broad technology
solutions.
19
HOTEL MARKET
HIGHLIGHTS
The positive trend observed in
the first half of 2015 represents
a further improvement on 2014
growth.
Romanias investment
attractiveness might be negatively
impacted by the instability in
Ukraine; however, the nomination
of Bucharest as one of the
host cities for the UEFA Euro
2020 is expected to incentivize
hotel development as the
UEFA committee has indicated
insufficient hotel supply in the
budget segment.
Supply
Demand
Medical Tourism
Medical tourism is a growing segment
of the market. International visitors that
come to Romania for medical services
spend between 3,0005,000. On
average the number of medical tourists
increased by 15% in 2014, according to
the Romanian medical tourism company
Seytour. Main source countries for
medical tourism are Germany, the UK,
Italy, France and Israel.
TABLE 6
Annual Evolution
Total
Arrivals
Bednights
Period
Arrivals
Bednights
International
Domestic
International
Domestic
H1 2014
3,515,109
7,579,178
839,966
2,675,144
1,653,288
5,925,890
H1 2015
4,024,800
8,663,000
975,200
3,049,600
1,936,000
6,727,000
Growth
14,5%
14,3%
16,1%
14,0%
17,1%
13,5%
20
New building
valuation
requirements
By Alexandra Smedoiu, CFA, Director
PricewaterhouseCoopers Romania
2016 financial year brings a lot of
changes in tax regime applicable to real
estate companies. To name just a few:
VAT reverse charge for constructions,
reduced VAT rate for certain dwellings,
gradual removal of construction tax,
reduction in building tax rates and
change of the building tax regime from
the nature of the owner to the nature of
the property.
While the changes mentioned above and
in particular the change in building tax
regime depending on the destination of
the property (i.e. different tax rates for
residential and non-residential buildings)
has been communicated at large, not
so well known is the change in valuation
requirements.
So far, legal entities owning buildings
(either residential or commercial) were
required to revalue their properties at
least once every three years, otherwise
they would have faced significant
increase in building tax liabilities (up to
10 times). This requirement generated
the need to carry out a financial
statement-type valuation, which was
going to be booked in the accounts of
the building owner and presented at the
local tax authorities together with the
valuation report.
With the new requirements as of
1st January 2016, legal entities (and
individuals alike) owning non-residential
buildings face the same time-sensitive
valuation requirements. This time
however, the valuation for tax purposes
is strictly separated from any financial
statement-type valuation.
Starting with
1st January 2016
the building tax
will depend on
the destination of
the property (i.e.
different tax rates
for residential and
non-residential
buildings).
21
Landlords,
be aware of tenants
pre-emption right!
by Simona Chirica, Ph.D., Partner
and Madalina Mitan, Senior Associate
Schoenherr&Associates SCA
When a landlord wishes to conclude a
new lease agreement for the premises
previously rented to a tenant, it should
consider the latters right to enter
into such agreement with priority.
Only a tenant who fully complied with
itsobligations derived from the previous
lease agreementmay exercise such preemption right. Moreover, tenants who
expressly waive to the legal preemptive
right are not entitled to make use of such
right anymore.
Tenants may exercise their pre-emption
right to lease the premises before the
expiryof the previous lease agreements,
as well as after the termination of the
lease agreements. The period after
which the right may be exercised
depends on the duration of the previous
lease agreement. For example, if
the previous lease agreement was
concluded for a period of more than
one year, the tenant may exercise the
pre-emption right within a maximum
period of 3 months from the termination
of the previous lease agreement.
There are two scenarios in which the
tenant may exercise the pre-emption
right to conclude the new lease
agreement, as follows:
The landlord makes a direct offer to
the tenant. The offer should contain all
the essential terms and conditions of
the new lease agreement.
If the tenant accepts the offer, a new
lease agreement will be concluded
between the tenant and the landlord. In
such a case, the tenant should consign
for the landlord at least the rent
corresponding to the first payment due
under the lease agreement.
22
COMMERCIAL BRIEFING
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+40 21 380 85 85
horatiu.florescu@ro.knightfrank.com
Roxana Bencze, COO
+40 21 380 85 85
roxana.bencze@ro.knightfrank.com
European Research
Matthew Colbourne, Associate,
Commercial Research
+44 20 7629 8171
matthew.colbourne@knightfrank.com
Heena Kerai, Research Analyst
+44 20 7861 5386
heena.kerai@knightfrank.com
Bucharest Office
Market Outlook Q2 2015
European Quarterly
Q2 2015
Private View
2015