The 8 states included in the new voter analysis were primarily chosen because of their
significance to the 2016 general election and then narrowed due to data coverage constraints
in several states. The analysis began with the 13 states designated by NBC News as
Battleground States, including: Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New
Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Michigan, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and Ohio.
In states that conduct caucuses (Colorado, Iowa and Nevada), no vote history is recorded, so
analysis on new voters could not be completed. Three other states were excluded because of
data limitations. As of August 30, 2016, Arizona had not updated their states voter file with
2016 primary vote history. Wisconsin does not collect information about voters party affiliation
or which partisan primary voters cast ballots in, and was therefore excluded from the analysis.
New Hampshire was excluded from the breakouts of new voters by age and gender because the
file does not yet contain sufficient information on new voters.
The analysis focused on the voting histories of 2016 primary voters. If a voter did not have any
other vote history information on their record, they were counted as a new voter. If a 2016
primary voter had participated in only a prior general election in 2008, 2012 or 2014, they were
counted as general election only voters.
If 2016 primary voters cast ballots in at least one of these general elections and at least one
presidential or state primary in 2008, 2010, 2012 or 2014, they were designated as prior
primary and general election voters. For a select few voters who had histories of voting in
previous primary elections but not general elections, they were designated as previous primary
only voters.
In all states except Florida, the analysis relied on data that indicated which primary
Democratic or Republicannew voters cast ballots in. In Florida, a closed primary that does not
provide information about which primary a voters ballot was cast for, party affiliation was used
to determine whether a voter turned out for a Democratic or Republican primary.