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EffectofMacroEconomicFactorsonDemandforTwo
WheelersinIndia
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4thIIMAInternationalConferenceonAdvancedDataAnalysis,BusinessAnalyticsandIntelligence
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dc.date.accessioned
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Batra,Vikram
20150708T08:54:39Z
20150708T08:54:39Z
2015
Batra,V..(2015).EffectofMacroEconomicFactorsonDemandforTwoWheelers
dc.identifier.citation
inIndia.4thIIMAInternationalConferenceonAdvancedDataAnalysis,Business
AnalyticsandIntelligence.IndianInstituteofManagement,Ahmedabad
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/11718/14040
Thetraditionalapproachforforecastingsalesdemandinthetwowheelerindustryin
Indiaprimarilyreliesonnavemodelswithsomeoverlayofjudgmentalforecasting
methods.Theempiricaldataonsalesforthelast30yearsshowsahighlevelof
variabilityonamonthly,quarterlyandannualbasisandthenavetraditional
forecastingapproachesareunabletoprovidereasonablelevelsofforecastaccuracy.
Thispaperaimstodeterminethecoincidentandleadingmacroeconomicandother
externalfactorsinfluencingannualtwowheelerdemand.Thiscanhelp
manufacturersbetteranticipatedemandtrendsovera13yearhorizonandinstall
adequatecapacitiesandplanproductionlevels.Theresearchdesigninvolved
collectionoflongitudinaldatafordifferenteconomicanddemographicindicators.
dc.description.abstract
Thesecoveredindicatorsaffecting(i)aggregatedemand(population,urbanization
level,percapitaincome),(ii)affordability(petrolprice,interestrates,household
wealth,inflation)and(iii)impulsepurchase(rainfalllevel,festivalseason).Two
regressionmodelswerederivedusingstatisticalanalysisofthecollecteddatato
forecastsales.Thesemodelsshowedthatsalesoftwowheelersincreasewith(a)
higherpercapitaincome,(b)increaseinpumppetrolprice,(c)increaseinpriceof
bulliongoldand(d)lowerconsumerfinancerates.Thedifferenceinsalesduring
highandlowmonsoonyearswasfoundtobenotstatisticallysignificant(at=0.05)
andfestivalseasonsaleswerefoundtobehigherthanrestofyearsaleswithafactor
ofbetween3.31%and10.26%(confidenceinterval95%).
dc.language.iso
en
dc.publisher
IndianInstituteofManagement,Ahmedabad
dc.relation.ispartofseries IC15051
dc.subject
MacroEconomic
dc.subject
TwoWheelers

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Forecasting
Regression
EffectofMacroEconomicFactorsonDemandforTwoWheelersinIndia
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