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Assignment 5

1.
30

a) P(X=10) =h(10;15,30,50) =

20

C 10C 5
50
C 15

.20695

b) P(at least 10 from the same class)=P(at least 10 from first class)
+P(at least 10 from2nd)
P(at least 10 from 2nd ) = h(10;15,30,50) + h(11;15,30,50) +
h(12;15,30,50)+
h(13;15,30,50)+ h(14;15,30,50)+
h(15;15,30,50)
=.
2070+.1176+.0438+.0101+.0013+.0001 = 0.3799
P(at least 10 from 1st) = P(at most 5 from second)
= h(5;15,30,50) + h(4;15,30,50) +
h(3;15,30,50) + h(2;15,30,50)
+ h(1;15,30,50) + h(0;15,30,50)
=.
011697+.002045+.000227+.000150+.000001+.000000
= .01412
P(at least 10 from the same class)= 0.3799 + 0.01412 = 0.39404
c) Mean value = (15*30)/50 = 9
d) Standard Deviation = sqrt ( ( 35*9*20)/50*49 ) = 1.60356

2. a) N = 50, n = 10, M = 15, N M = 35.


P(X = x) = h(x; 10, 15, 50)

35
C 15
x C 10x
C50
10

b) E(X) = n * (M/N) = 10 * (3/10) = 3


V(X) = { (N-n)/(N-1) } * ( (n*M)/N ) * ( 1- (M/N) )
= 0.8163 * 3 * 0.7 = 1.71423

3.
It is not mentioned in the question what p is and I figured it out
according to the answer
given alongside the question that p actually denotes the probability that
the drought ends in
the next period. That is, (1p) represents the probability that it extends.
a) P(exactly 3 intervals) = (1-p)^3 * p = (1-0.409)^3 * 0.409 = 0.0844
b) P(at most 3 intervals) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3)
= 0.409 + 0.591 * 0.409 + 0.591^2 * 0.409 +
0.0844
= 0.87797
c) Mean = r(1-p)/p where r=1
= (1-p)/p = 0.591/0.409 = 1.44498
Standard deviation = sqrt( (r*(1-p) )/p^2 ) = sqrt( 0.591/0.409^2) =
sqrt(3.53297) = 1.8796

d) P( X > (1.8796+1.44498) ) = P( X > 3.32458) = P(at most 3)


= 1 - P(X<=3)
= 1- 0.87797 = 0.12203

4.
a) Probability that exactly four arrivals occur during the hour =P(x,u) =P(4,5)
=

e 5
4!

0.175467

b) Probability that no arrival occur during the hour = P(0,5) =

e
( 55 0)/0 !

e =6.7379 x

10

5.

a)

f ( x , )dx

2
2

x2 e 2 dx
0
2

=- e

x
2
2

= 0-(-1) =1

Therefore its a legitimate pdf


b) P(X >= 200) = 1 - P(X < 200)
200

P(X<200) =

x 2
e
2

dx

=- e

x
2
2

200
0

= 0.8647 (put

Therefore P(X>=200) = 1- 0.8647 = 0.1353


2

c) P(100<= X <= 200) =

x
2
2

200
100

= 0.4712

d) P(X<=x) for x>0 =

u
2
2

x
0

= 1-

x
2
2

=100 )

6.
2
5
a)

y
y2
2 y y 2 10
)dy = 50 +(
)
25
50
5 50 5

5
10
y
f
(
y
)
dy=
dy
+

25

0
5

=1

Therefore its a legitimate pdf.


3

b) P(Y<=3) =

y
y2 3
dy
=
25 50 0
0

= 9/50 = 0.18

c) P(3<=X<=8) = P(X<=8)-P(X<3) = P(X<=8) 0.18

P(X<=8) =

2
5
y
(
) dy
25
5
8
y
25 dy +
0
5

2y
5
y2 5
+
50 0

y2 8

50 5

= 0.5 + (0.42) = 0.92

P(3<=X<=8) = 0.92 0.18 = 0.74


2

d) P(Y < 2 or Y > 6) =

10

y 2 2 y y 10
0 +(
)
25y dy + 52 25y dy= 50
5 50 6 = 0.08 + 0.32=
0
6

0.40

7.
9

a) F(Y) =

10

x x

9 10
y

90 x 8 (1x ) dx = 90 ( x 8x 9 ) dx=90
0

y
) 0

where 0<y<1 as F(Y)=0

9
10
= 10 y 9 y

elsewhere
b) ( .5) = F(0.5)= 10(0.5)^9 9(0.5)^10 = 0.010742
c) (.25 < .5) =F(0.5)- F(0.25) = 0.010742 ( 10(0.25)^9 9(0.25)^10) =
0.010712436
1

xf ( x ) dy= x90 x 8 ( 1x )=9 x 10


0

d) E(X) =

90 11 1
90 9
x 0=9 =
11
11 11

=0.818181

2
Similarly E( X =0.6818

V(X) = 0.6818 (0.818181)^2 =0.0123798


x = sqrt(V(X)) = sqrt(0.0123798)= 0.11126

11

r f ( r ) dr = r 2
2

8. E( r =

( 34 ( 1( 10r ) )) dr =
2

3
4

11

( 20 r 3 r 4 99 r 2 ) dr
9

= (100.2) =314.628